All borders to reopen.

[rattman]

Weird all these people complaining about queensland border rules, scummo comes onto national TV with crocadile tears for about how he personally asked for an exemption for someone. Completely ommitting that he is preventing australians returning to australia. I know someone who missed the last weeks with his mother life and her funeral because the national border laws which are his domain is preventing thousands of australians return

Its all politics, like tom hanks he has had covid why is he quarantining again then, why because its the rules

Its wierd that suddenly NSW gives a **** about a QLD after years of putting **** on it for being the "redneck state" and now they all want to come here,

[Ragnor]

Not sure where you have been living for the last few decades but QLD has always been popular with NSW, Victorians so yes we do want it open. You are very correct it is the redneck state that’s why we like to just visit for short amounts of time But never want to live there.

[blubak]

Not sure where you have been living for the last few decades but QLD has always been popular with NSW, Victorians so yes we do want it open. You are very correct it is the redneck state that’s why we like to just visit for short amounts of time But never want to live there.
Lots of NSW & VIC residents couldnt care less if it never opens again.
Her day will come,just sit back & watch.

[Ragnor]

Unfortunately as has been mentioned by another poster it’s the “the red neck state” she will have brain washed them all. I think she will win Oct 31st.

[SandyPalms]

Her ministers are jumping ship. It’s obvious they don’t think she will win.

[Green.Dot]

Her intellect is even less than I would have imagined. Pulling the bullying card, what a crock!

Bet she regrets stepping up to the big league.

[Maggie Island]

Victorian support for Dan has all but collapsed:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-andrews-government-in-fear-of-the-virus-expert-says/live-coverage/f74baa7f2df174572c7eeeb9de8f8e67

QLD Labor would be paying close attention...

[Green.Dot]

Victorian support for Dan has all but collapsed:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-andrews-government-in-fear-of-the-virus-expert-says/live-coverage/f74baa7f2df174572c7eeeb9de8f8e67

QLD Labor would be paying close attention...

Problem is the Victorian election is over 2 years away, and he knows it.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Victorian support for Dan has all but collapsed:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-andrews-government-in-fear-of-the-virus-expert-says/live-coverage/f74baa7f2df174572c7eeeb9de8f8e67

QLD Labor would be paying close attention...

The next Vic state election isn't until Nov 2022.

I doubt he's jumping at shadows about a poll over 2 years from an election.

I think he'll lose that election but that should be based on the bungling of hotel quarantine, not the steady easing of restrictions which, while unpopular, is our best chance of avoiding a third wave.

[dr dre]

Victorian support for Dan has all but collapsed:


Very interesting that a poll commissioned specifically for the Vic State Liberal Party shows that, whilst another poll today from prominent pollster Roy Morgan shows Dan Andrews at 70% approval rating:

70% of Victorians approve of the way Premier Andrews is handling his job (https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8518-victorian-stage-4-restrictions-september-10-2020-202009091315)

Interesting that even LNP voters are giving Dan a slightly less than majority approval. A majority want the curfew, the restaurant takeaway, the 5km restrictions to remain, although a slight majority wish to see an exemption to visit immediate families.

This poll shows Dan’s approval rating is even slightly higher than Scott Morrison’s (https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport) was last week.

I find it hillarious that even after the vitriol on here and in certain parts of the media directed at the Labor state government they’re mostly holding up and solid, whereas the NSW State Coalition government, which people here and in the media tell me is doing the best job and is so good, almost collapsed yesterday because they couldn’t agree on whether or not slaughtering koalas en masse is a bad thing?!

[Bend alot]

As each day passes, the Sweden model looks like it was the more rational option. Let’s also not forget that Covid is not Ebola. Listening to the media, you’d be forgiven for thinking they were one and the same.

Sweden had/has NON voluntary recommendations. Including no travel until recently.

Current are:-As of 29 March, the Swedish Government has decided to ban all public gatherings and events with more than 50 people. The aim with this legislation is to prevent situations where large numbers of people from different parts of the country come together in the same place.

Examples of public gatherings and events are demonstrations, seminars, religious gatherings, theatre performances and concerts. Sports events, dances and fairs are other examples.



On 1 April, the Public Health Agency issued regulations and general guidelines regarding our shared responsibility to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Everyone has a personal responsibility to prevent transmission. You should avoid any large social gathering such as parties, weddings, funerals and other events attracting many people at the same time.

It is also of utmost importance to keep a distance from others at e.g. sports grounds, gyms, shopping centers, public transportation etc. People older than 70 should limit all close contacts with others.

Prior to all events and public gatherings, the Public Health Agency recommends that the organisers do a risk assessment.



According to the general guidelines published by the Public Health Agency, public transport operators should:


provide enough services to avoid crowding,
limit the number of passengers per vehicle, and
inform their passengers about how to minimise the risk of disease transmission.

Businesses and organisations in Sweden must take note of the recommendations of the Public Health Agency of Sweden or County Medical Officers and do what they can to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This means that:


Shops and shopping centres must do what they can to limit the number of people on their premises at any one time. They should come up with alternative arrangements for checkout queues and advise customers how far apart they need to stand
Employers can also ease the situation for their employees by:
- supporting employees who are on sick leave. Anyone confirmed positive with COVID-19 should stay at home for at least seven days after falling ill. Before returning to work one should have completely recovered and have had at least two days with no fever.
- adapting the workplace so that staff are not at risk of infection
- arranging for the staff to be able from keep a physical distance to each other
- making it possible for staff to regularly wash their hands with water and soap or use alcohol-based hand rub.
- making it possible for staff to work at home where possible
- adjusting working hours so that staff can avoid travelling in the rush hour
Associations and clubs should postpone annual meetings and other similar meetings if possible, or hold meetings digitally.

It is important to keep a physical distance from other people, both indoors and outdoors where people gather, e.g. restaurants, shopping centres, bathing places, beaches, camping sites and open-air cafés and restaurants



As from 14 June activities such as sports games, matches and tournaments without spectators will be permitted for all ages. The decision applies to all professional sports, at all levels, for both men and women. However, there are certain conditions to take into account. Tournaments should


primarily be held outdoors
comply with the legislation in the Public Order Act chapter 2, section 1-3 §§ regarding public gatherings which are limited to 50 people. Further information is available from the Swedish Police (https://polisen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/mars/ytterligare-begransade-mojligheter-till-allmanna-sammankomster-och-tillstallningar/)(in Swedish).
limit the number of spectators and avoid crowding
only permit close contact considered unavoidable in order to be able to practise the respective sport.

It is important that both participants and spectators are free of any symptoms.

For all other exercise and sports activities the same rules as before are applicable, i.e. these activities can continue, but the one responsible for the activity must take action to minimise the risk of transmission of COVID-19.

You are allowed to travel within Sweden in connection with sports games, tournaments and other sports activities. However, it is of utmost importance to keep a distance from others and to follow the general guidelines concerning travel within Sweden.



Restaurants, bars, and cafés around the country need to take special precaution regarding the risk of crowding of people in queues, around tables, and at buffets or bars. Visitors must be able to keep at a distance from each other.

All visitors should sit at tables when they eat or drink, they are not allowed to stand at a bar or similar. Staff should serve food and drinks at the tables. Unless it creates queues or crowding, guests may order and pick up their food at a counter. Take-outs can be handled as usual, as long as it does not lead to crowding or close contact between people.

The person in charge of the venue is responsible for maintaining routines minimising the risk of disease transmission. This can for example include local guidelines about access to hand washing facilities (soap and running water) for staff and guests.



Businesses and organisations in Sweden must take note of the recommendations of the Public Health Agency of Sweden or County Medical Officers and do what they can to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This means that:


Shops and shopping centres must do what they can to limit the number of people on their premises at any one time. They should come up with alternative arrangements for checkout queues and advise customers how far apart they need to stand.
Employers can also ease the situation for their employees by:
– supporting employees who are on sick leave. Anyone confirmed positive with COVID-19 should stay at home for at least seven days after falling ill. Before returning to work one should have completely recovered and have had at least two days with no fever.
– adapting the workplace so that staff are not at risk of infection
– arranging for the staff to be able to keep a physical distance from each other
– making it possible for staff to regularly wash their hands with water and soap or use alcohol-based hand rub
– making it possible for staff to work at home where possible
– adjusting working hours so that staff can avoid travelling in the rush hour


Associations and clubs should postpone annual meetings and other similar meetings if possible, or hold meetings digitally.

[KRviator]

And with that, they've achieved 86,200 cases, 5,850 deaths against a population of 10,100,000. That works out to 0.85% of the population infected and 0.05% of the population dying from it.

Applying those percentages to Australia's 25.5M population and you'd get: 217,000 cases and 14,772 deaths. Now, the statistical value of a human life is ~$4.6M AUD, so the statistical value of those deaths is only $67.9B AUD. I say "only" because the financial damage of the Government response to COVID is well over $100 Billion dollars so far. And it's still doing up... And that's not including the "human toll" families locked out of funerals, the mother who lost her unborn baby, the FIFO's (like me) who are on the cusp of losing their jobs because they are locked out of the state they work in, the small businesses and cafes who will go under...

But, hang on a minute, doesn't Australia still allow tobacco smoking? Which causes lung cancer? Which is almost entirely preventable by not smoking? In 2019, there were 8,684 deaths from Lung or Bronchial cancer. Almost all of which could have been prevented by banning tobacco.

Reckon they'll do it? :rolleyes:

[Ragnor]

Sweden Mindel may not be the best. Australia has low to zero casss but yet we close our entire country off to each other it’s pure madness. Australia should be open to all within Australia. Victoria understandably remain **** off but get them open ASAP. Put the job advert up for contact tracers increase that work group give them all the resources they need. We are killing our country each week this goes on

[KRviator]

Victoria understandably remain ****....I love a good typo! :D:}

[Xeptu]

Sweden Mindel may not be the best. Australia has low to zero casss but yet we close our entire country off to each other it’s pure madness. Australia should be open to all within Australia. Victoria understandably remain **** off but get them open ASAP. Put the job advert up for contact tracers increase that work group give them all the resources they need. We are killing our country each week this goes on

And if NSW is successful, that's probably what we'll do.

[Bend alot]

And with that, they've achieved 86,200 cases, 5,850 deaths against a population of 10,100,000. That works out to 0.85% of the population infected and 0.05% of the population dying from it.

Applying those percentages to Australia's 25.5M population and you'd get: 217,000 cases and 14,772 deaths. Now, the statistical value of a human life is ~$4.6M AUD, so the statistical value of those deaths is only $67.9B AUD. I say "only" because the financial damage of the Government response to COVID is well over $100 Billion dollars so far. And it's still doing up... And that's not including the "human toll" families locked out of funerals, the mother who lost her unborn baby, the FIFO's (like me) who are on the cusp of losing their jobs because they are locked out of the state they work in, the small businesses and cafes who will go under...

But, hang on a minute, doesn't Australia still allow tobacco smoking? Which causes lung cancer? Which is almost entirely preventable by not smoking? In 2019, there were 8,684 deaths from Lung or Bronchial cancer. Almost all of which could have been prevented by banning tobacco.

Reckon they'll do it? :rolleyes:
Only Sweden have just ramped up testing, many early deaths were not tested.

$4.6m is on a normal day - it takes one woman nine months to create a baby, how long does it take nine women?

Guns in Australia were/are pretty much banned - it did reduce mass shootings.

[601]

Completely ommitting that he is preventing australians returning to australia. I know someone who missed the last weeks with his mother life and her funeral because the national border laws which are his domain is preventing thousands of australians return

Need to dig a bit deeper.
The number of people allowed in each State from overseas is set by the States, not the Feds.
The excuse is that they do not have enough hotel accommodation to quarantine greater numbers.


By Kelsie Iorio (https://www.abc.net.au/news/iorio-/11729754)
Posted Thursday 9 July 2020 at 7:26am

This comes after the Victorian Government requested international arrivals be diverted away from Melbourne (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/melbourne-flight-diversions-and-qld-banning-victorians/12413660) while it manages an ongoing rise in cases, the WA Government moved to limit people returning to Perth from overseas to 525 a week (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/international-flights-capped-into-wa-and-western-derby-suspended/12429098), and NSW also arranged a cap on international arrivals (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/nsw-coronavirus-cap-on-arrivals-to-ease-quarantine-pressure/12422504) at the request of the State Government.

The number of Australian citizens and residents allowed into the country will be slashed to ease pressure on state and territory coronavirus quarantine systems and free up resources to contain the COVID-19 outbreak in Melbourne.
Key points:

The number of people allowed into Australia each week will be reduced to 4,000
All jurisdictions will move towards charging people the cost of mandatory quarantine
It is hoped the reduction will ease the hotel quarantine burden on states and territories

National Cabinet has agreed to cut the number of people coming home to Australia from approximately 7,000 to just over 4,000 each week, which amounts to a reduction of about a third, according to Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

States and territories have complained of the burden of hosting returning Australian residents and citizens in hotel quarantine, with Mr Morrison flagging earlier this week that a limit would be introduced. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-08/scott-morrison-may-reduce-international-arrivals-coronavirus/12433896)

"We agreed today to a reduction in the number of inbound arrivals into Australia across those ports that are able to accept returning Australian citizens and residents," Mr Morrison said after National Cabinet met this morning.


It is not confined to Oz,
Neighboring New Zealand introduced measures earlier this week to limit the number of citizens returning home to reduce the burden on its overflowing quarantine facilities.

[KRviator]

Only Sweden have just ramped up testing, many early deaths were not tested.
Ok, then let's look at the Seppo's: 6,587,971 total cases & 196,303 deaths against a population of 328,200,000. 2.00% infected and 0.06% dying from it. If you don't like the Seppo's, pick any country you like and run the same numbers. Here's the UK too: 358,138 Cases, 41,608 deaths against a population of 66,650,000. 0.54% Infected, 0.06% of their population died "from COVID". Maybe another "random-big numbers country" might help seal the deal: Brazil: 4,239,763 cases, 129,575 deaths against a population of 212,559,000. 1.99% infected, 0.06% dying from it. Or WITH COVID might be a more appropriate moniker.

That 0.06% Of Australian's would be 15,300 deaths. $4.6m is on a normal dayYep, for a notional "average working Aussie". Except the problem is, most of those dying from COVID are not "normal working Aussies", they are "elderly, retired Aussies with Co-Morbidities" and as such, would be "valued" at less, thereby rendering the opening of the economy even more important on a cost/benefit ratio.

EDIT: Just found a newly-released guidance note from the Dept of PM & Cabinet, it's now $4.9M, but also $213,000 per "life year". If someone want's to plug the average age of our COVID fatalities into Excel vs the Average age of death in Australia you might be alarmed at the cost/benefit ratio. IT makes CASA's reasoning to AD's etc look like the Gold-standard!

EDIT 2: Fixed the quote attribution

[Chronic Snoozer]

because they couldn’t agree on whether or not slaughtering koalas en masse is a bad thing?!

Seriously?

[Chronic Snoozer]

$4.6m is on a normal day - it takes one woman nine months to create a baby, how long does it take nine women?


I love these brain teasers. "9 months?"

[Xeptu]

Oii!!! Mr KRviator, those referenced original posts from 1529 are not mine.

[KRviator]

Oii!!! Mr KRviator, those referenced original posts from 1529 are not mine.Yep, apologies, my bad! I'll try to edit it.:O

[Bend alot]

Ok, then let's look at the Seppo's: 6,587,971 total cases & 196,303 deaths against a population of 328,200,000. 2.00% infected and 0.06% dying from it. If you don't like the Seppo's, pick any country you like and run the same numbers. Here's the UK too: 358,138 Cases, 41,608 deaths against a population of 66,650,000. 0.54% Infected, 0.06% of their population died "from COVID". Maybe another "random-big numbers country" might help seal the deal: Brazil: 4,239,763 cases, 129,575 deaths against a population of 212,559,000. 1.99% infected, 0.06% dying from it. Or WITH COVID might be a more appropriate moniker.

That 0.06% Of Australian's would be 15,300 deaths. Yep, for a notional "average working Aussie". Except the problem is, most of those dying from COVID are not "normal working Aussies", they are "elderly, retired Aussies with Co-Morbidities" and as such, would be "valued" at less, thereby rendering the opening of the economy even more important on a cost/benefit ratio.

EDIT: Just found a newly-released guidance note from the Dept of PM & Cabinet, it's now $4.9M, but also $213,000 per "life year". If someone want's to plug the average age of our COVID fatalities into Excel vs the Average age of death in Australia you might be alarmed at the cost/benefit ratio. IT makes CASA's reasoning to AD's etc look like the Gold-standard!

All your examples have restrictions in place (that keep numbers lower).

The British government backed a series of measures on Wednesday it hopes will stem a worrying increase in new coronavirus (https://www.9news.com.au/coronavirus) cases, particularly among young adults, including a legally enforced ban on any social gatherings of more than six people in England (https://www.9news.com.au/uk).
In the biggest reversal of the months-long easing of the lockdown, it said social gatherings in England will be limited to a maximum of six people (https://www.9news.com.au/world/england-groups-bigger-than-six-illegal-as-coronavirus-cases-spike/6f7a501a-db09-4170-9d04-8af16db39a87), either inside or outside of the home. The new limit will be in place from Monday and police will be able to fine, and even arrest, anyone breaching the rules.
Among other measures, Prime Minister Boris Johnson (https://www.9news.com.au/boris-johnson) said "COVID-secure marshals" will be introduced to help ensure social distancing in city centres.

Months after it was tabled due to COVID-19, indoor dining is coming back to New York City.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Wednesday that restaurants can resume indoor service on Sept. 30 at 25% capacity and with other safety precautions in place.

With the Covid-19 pandemic in near constant fluctuation in the United States (https://www.cnn.com/travel/destinations/usa), the 50 states are having to adapt rapidly with their rules and regulations.
If you're planning a family vacation or simply wish to travel (https://www.cnn.com/travel) to another state, it is important to be updated on the latest statewide regulations. While some US states have no restrictions, all their sites have important Covid-19 safety information, including possible face mask mandates in public setting.

The Brazilian authorities extended the restriction on foreign nationals entering Brazil for 30 more days until September 26. They have also imposed new rules on foreign nationals who come for business/tourism purposes for short stays (up to 90 days) -- they must present proof of medical insurance meeting certain minimum requirements. The Brazilian government has updated the list of locations that can’t receive international flights.

[Xeptu]

Yep, apologies, my bad! I'll try to edit it.:O

Is ok don't worry about it. I only raised it because it happened over in the QF Group thread but because I didn't entirely disagree didn't bother with it, Then hellfire rained down upon me for daring to suggest that seniority won't play a role in redundancies on this occasion.

[Ragnor]

And if NSW is successful, that's probably what we'll do.

How is NSW not successful? NSW is the only state that is. Its very hard for you accept NSW superiority with the handling of this pandemic. We all know WA would be on their knees borders full open if it were not for the resources sector. No resource in NSW that is comparable to WA but we are coping fine. QLD they are gong down the hole of oblivion without a plan its actually very amusing watching the train wreck that is QLD now.

NSW is the only state that has learned to live with suppress it the original goal agreed by all. All the other states and territories are so $hit scared of not being able to match the capabilities of NSW they choose to close off. QLD still getting cases they should be zero by now but no they still getting covid cases.

[Xeptu]

I love these brain teasers. "9 months?"

Only if they all started at the same time :)

[KRviator]

So, I found a few figures and the number's are genuinely scary...As at yesterday, for COVID:

The median age of all cases is 37 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
The median age of deaths is 86 years (range: 30 to 106 years).
Source (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-10-september-2020)

The ABS says in 2018 (Last year of avail data)

Median age at death was 78.9 years for males and 84.8 years for females.
Source (https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Latestproducts/3302.0Main%20Features32018?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3302.0&issue=2018&num=&view=)


If you assume (I know, I know), the "average" age at death in Australia is (78.9+84.8)/2 = 81.85, then there is zero value to be "saved" in the "statistical value of life" calculations, as those who died with COVID have already passed the "notional date of death" that would be used in that application. From the available data, it looks to me that those dying from COVID are, by and large, those who would die from anything if they were to catch it, influenza, pneumonia, even a common cold.

[Xeptu]

How is NSW not successful? NSW is the only state that is. Its very hard for you accept NSW superiority with the handling of this pandemic. We all know WA would be on their knees borders full open if it were not for the resources sector. No resource in NSW that is comparable to WA but we are coping fine. QLD they are gong down the hole of oblivion without a plan its actually very amusing watching the train wreck that is QLD now.

NSW is the only state that has learned to live with suppress it the original goal agreed by all. All the other states and territories are so $hit scared of not being able to match the capabilities of NSW they choose to close off. QLD still getting cases they should be zero by now but no they still getting covid cases.

For now, it's only just begun and all we seem to be hearing is another outbreak and more cases, We'll be in a better position to judge just how successful that is by christmas. I'm not one of those that is all that optimistic it will be successful.

[Xeptu]

The next bridge to cross is that even if NSW is deemed successful, will the unaffected states decide to do the same. Personally I think not. Life in those states is pretty much back to normal and people are willing to wait for either a quick test to better manage border closures or a vaccine. Without doubt, Travel and Tourism is deeply impacted, but in terms of state by state, it's still a small percentage and a small number of individuals impacted against the population of the state. Is this something the population is willing to sacrifice in the short term ( say 2 years) I would think "yes".

P.S, You are pitching your arguments towards the Medical Industry, who are deeply impacted and lost a good number of their own.

[Ragnor]

Well your ideas of success is the opposite to mine so we will just leave it at that.

Yes I am optimistic unlike yourself who seem to want the worst to happen and take joy in seeing it happen I you would be a hoot to be around.

NT has an end date for the injunction on SY, 9th October that’s a positive step.

[Xeptu]

Well your ideas of success is the opposite to mine so we will just leave it at that.

Yes I am optimistic unlike yourself who seem to want the worst to happen and take joy in seeing it happen I you would be a hoot to be around.

NT has an end date for the injunction on SY, 9th October that’s a positive step.

And I still don't understand why you think anyone with an opposing opinion is somehow, evil, wants it to be, enjoys it, hopes it gets worse. It's a 10 year olds thinking.

[brokenagain]

NT has an end date for the injunction on SY, 9th October that’s a positive step.

And announced only 3 weeks after the NT election. If anybody needs any more proof that border closures are largely politically driven, there it is. NSW cases have been bubbling away at a pretty consistent daily double figure rate, without a marked decline, so it’s definitely not driven by community health outcomes. I have no doubt the same watering down of restrictions will happen in Queensland after its election.

[Bend alot]

At one point in Vic.

47 persons were in ICU.
20's = 1
30-39 = 4
50-59 = 12
60-69 = 18

Only 2 were 80+
10 unknown.

Retirement age 67.


He said young, previously well patients with severe influenza who experience cytokine storm can end up with scarred lungs, so he believes the same may happen as a result of COVID-19.

‘I think the incidence of chronic lung disease in COVID-19 will probably turn out to be higher than what we see in influenza,’ he said.

‘And I think it’s because proportionally more are going to ICU [with COVID-19], and they do tend to intubated for a longer period of time.’

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/what-are-the-long-term-health-risks-post-covid-19#:~:text=Long%2Dterm%20effects%20of%20COVID,have%20long%2D term%20pulmonary%20damage.

[KRviator]

Woman who breached WA coronavirus border by hiding on truck handed six-month jail sentence

A 28-year-old Perth woman who snuck across WA's hard border hidden on the back of a truck has received what is believed to be the toughest penalty handed down for breaching the state's quarantine laws.

Key points:
Asher Vander Sanden did have an exemption to fly into WA
But she instead entered WA by road and then went to her partner's house
She has been sentenced to six months in jail after pleading guilty
Asher Faye Vander Sanden, who had spent a month in coronavirus-hit Victoria, concealed herself from authorities at the border with South Australia by hiding in a car that was being transported by the truck.

She had been in Mildura, in regional Victoria, when she asked the driver to give her a lift to Perth.

The Perth Magistrates court was told Vander Sanden did have an exemption allowing her to fly to Perth, but was told that after she arrived she would have to quarantine in a hotel for 14 days at her own expense.

Police prosecutor Ian McDowall said after crossing the border, Vander Sanden was taken to a service station in Midland where she rang her partner and asked him to collect her.

Police tried to locate her, but Senior Constable McDowall said she failed to disclose her whereabouts. She was arrested at a unit in Scarborough about 10 days after her arrival in the state, and has spent the past fortnight in quarantine while in custody.

Vander Sanden 'self-quarantined': lawyer
Vander Sanden's lawyer, John Hammond, said his client had indicated from when she was first charged that she would plead guilty to the offence of failing to comply with a direction.

Vander Sanden was eventually found by police in her partner's unit in Scarborough. He said she had "self-quarantined" while she was in the Scarborough unit with her partner and had no contact with any "third party".

Mr Hammond said Vander Sanden had gone to Victoria to look after her sister who was unwell, but decided to return to Perth when she could not cope. He acknowledged Vander Sanden did have a criminal record, saying that was related to "a meth habit" but that she no longer used the drug.

Police condemn 'deceitful and dishonest' acts
Senior Constable McDowall argued an immediate jail term should be imposed, describing Vander Sanden as being "deceitful and dishonest" for no other reason than "selfishness". He said she had shown "a complete disregard" for the community and could have caused an outbreak of coronavirus and potentially further lockdowns in WA.

Magistrate Andrew Matthews described Vander Sanden's actions as "a very serious offence", saying they undermined what Western Australia had done to prevent community spread of "this hideous virus".

WA closed its borders in April for the first time in history in a bid to keep coronavirus out. e also said it was serious because she had travelled from Victoria, which he described as a "hotspot" for COVID-19.

Magistrate Matthews imposed a sentence of six months, backdated to August 12 when Vander Sanden was arrested.
The sentence is believed to be the harshest imposed among WA's series of COVID-19 quarantine breaches, which carry a maximum jail term of 12 months.

Outside the court, Vander Sanden's lawyer, John Hammond made only a brief comment.

"The magistrate sent a very clear message to people coming into Western Australia without quarantining, I can't say anything more than that."
Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/woman-who-snuck-into-wa-on-truck-handed-six-month-jail-sentence/12592832)

Meanwhile, in Queen$land, where money talk$ and bull$hit walk$....

Superyacht skipper fined for lying to get coronavirus border exemption for family of Mark Simonds
The skipper of a superyacht that sailed into Queensland from Victoria has defended his wealthy employer, saying they had nothing to do with the trail of lies used to get an exemption to cross the border.

Key points:
Greg Numa was fined $4,500 for breaching the Public Health Act with no conviction recorded
He set sail with businessman Mark Simonds and his family during the peak of the pandemic in Melbourne
The 64-year-old says the family had nothing to do with his decision to mislead officials
Greg Numa, 64, has pleaded guilty in the Southport Magistrates Court to providing false and misleading statements to an emergency officer under the Public Health Act and been fined $4,500.

The Lady Pamela, which is owned by Victorian millionaire Mark Simonds, left Melbourne on August 9 for a 15-day voyage with seven people on board, including Numa, Mr Simonds and his wife, their son Vallance and his girlfriend, Hannah Fox.

Police prosecutor Senior Sergeant Damian Summerfield said 83 emails had been exchanged between Numa and a Maritime Safety Queensland officer as part of an application for exemption from the Chief Health Officer.

A day after the group docked at Gold Coast City Marina the exemption was revoked and all seven were ordered into hotel quarantine, which ended on Tuesday. The court heard the Lady Pamela stopped at three locations along the New South Wales coast, a coronavirus hotspot, where Numa, Mr Simonds, his wife and others were seen leaving the yacht.

Senior Sergeant Summerfield said Numa, in multiple emails, claimed no-one had disembarked, and in one email exchange said: "We have had no contact with the outside world." "The integrity of the Fox family and the Simonds family remains. They had absolutely nothing to do with my decision," Numa said outside court.

"That was my decision and basically that winds it up."

"I want to thank Queensland Health, the Queensland Government, MSQ, the Queensland Police — they do an amazing job with dealing with people like myself who stepped over the line on this occasion. "I regret that and I've paid the price today."

Magistrate Grace Kahlert said it was a serious offence because of the risk to the community of coronavirus and that the sentence must denounce the conduct and deter others from doing the same.
A conviction was not recorded.
Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-11/superyacht-skipper-admits-lying-for-coronavirus-border-exemption/12654176)

[Stickshift3000]

Meanwhile, in Queen$land, where money talk$ and bull$hit walk$....

I reckon the most interesting part of the yacht story is that 83 emails were exchanged to arrange passage. Bureaucratic systems at their best.

[Turnleft080]

From Bend alot
At one point in Vic.
47 persons were in ICU.
20's = 1
30-39 = 4
50-59 = 12
60-69 = 18

Only 2 were 80+
10 unknown.
Retirement age 67.
________________________

Speaking about ICU,
A study came out in Spain last week (the latest) on vit D or Calcifediol which is your liver converting vit D
I have supplied the study on here and conclusion.

Basically 76 people with covid over 60s yo put in 2 groups, in hospital.
50 taking vit D -----------------------1 went to ICU only 2%----------------- No deaths.
26 not taking Vit D -----------------13 went to ICU only 50%---------------- 2 deathsConclusion
Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer.More research will be required to convince health ministers, again not a cure though this can be very helpful in preventing deaths.
However all the news over last week was on a hope of vaccine and vaccine hiccup. Nothing on D.
Of course, I know why. No money in it for the pharmaceutical companies. So just squash the idea.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/

Also you can find a tube briefing on this by Dr John Campbell, Vitamin D first clinical trial.

[Bend alot]

The % below 60 that require hospitalisation/ICU is the area that needs greater attention.

This is the work force and long term health impacts can restrict many things from jobs to travel/medical insurance premiums or availability for life.

The small Vic sample above is at least 17 of 47.

People may have to tick the COVID box just like "have you ever had TB" on many forms.

[Angle of Attack]

Bendalot,
Probably because all the oldies carked it on that day, don’t take a single days statistic , it’s un representative.
You can’t deny on statistics that this thing kills overwhelmingly Oldies that would be taken out by influenza either way.
Sure there is some issues with ongoing lung problems up to 10 months later for middle aged sufferers, this is why the West
is about to be taken over by the East. If this was world war 2 we would have lost at the first battle. HR government minions have taken over the decision making Princess Palshay said it!, I have no say! Well if your the premier and have no say.....goodbye!

[Angle of Attack]

6.7 million population in VIC last time I looked and your worried about double digit hospitalisation cases? FFS...

[Angle of Attack]

If it gets to 5000 hospitalised I’d be mildly concerned, this crap is getting beyond a joke. VIC has historically ripped the guts out of the health care system starting with Kennet all those years ago, You can get away with it until something like a pandemic hits. The virus always exposes the weakest link, and it has proven true, Victoria has copped it because of all the privatisation loving State libs they’ve had since Kennet. You reap what you sow. Pay peanuts get virus.

[Bend alot]

6.7 million population in VIC last time I looked and your worried about double digit hospitalisation cases? FFS...
Concentration on death and oldies may bite the arse later.

A country in Europe that constantly had healthcare in the top 3 for Europe pre COVID and "rich country" around $60K GDP per capita, would have Australia's death rate sitting at around 32,000 deaths for the 6 months since March if we had the same stats.

Yes they had lock-down and they still have restrictions - but 1 in every 794 people of the entire population died and 1 in 49 people of the population contracted it.

[currawong]

Be interesting to see how this looks at the twelve month mark -

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

[Square Bear]

Angle of Attack,

are you seriously blaming Kennett.....he lost that unloose-able election in 1999, and since then the Labor Party has had 17 years of running the State, with the Libs having a mere 4 years.....and before Kennet was Kirner and Cain Jr (um..who was there when the state bank went!!).

But hey, if you want to disregard the impact that 17 years of Victorian Labor Govt influence on its health system (not to mention what it has allowed its Police Service to become, nor the wokeness of just about every Government department it has) fill your boots....but seriously now, do a bit of history research, and understand what the Labor party has done to a once great State.

Kennnet 21 years ago, and mostly Labor Party, BLF CMFEU ACTU, DOCKERS, etc etc etc since then, and who are the citizens asking for to sort the current mess out, yep KENNETT.

Not my choice at all, but couldnt possibly be worse than the “Chairman”...he prob wants Kennett as well.

History...look it up, and maybe take of those rose coloured glasses.

[Turnleft080]

If a Vic election was being held tomorrow Labor would lose 30 seats. Crash! Bang! Wallop! Wipeout!

[White Knight]

All your examples have restrictions in place (that keep numbers lower).

But nothing like the nonsense happening in Melbourne right now. Stasigrad may be a better name for the place these days...

[Bend alot]

Are you sure?

Many think Sweden was basically OP's normal the whole time - that is/was utter rubbish. Sweden had massive restrictions and a massive death toll and a screwed economy to match.

Show a free COVID nation that is doing well - other than China.

[exfocx]

So, I found a few figures and the number's are genuinely scary...As at yesterday, for COVID:

The median age of all cases is 37 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
The median age of deaths is 86 years (range: 30 to 106 years).
Source (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-10-september-2020)

The ABS says in 2018 (Last year of avail data)

Median age at death was 78.9 years for males and 84.8 years for females.
Source (https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Latestproducts/3302.0Main%20Features32018?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3302.0&issue=2018&num=&view=)


If you assume (I know, I know), the "average" age at death in Australia is (78.9+84.8)/2 = 81.85, then there is zero value to be "saved" in the "statistical value of life" calculations,...............................

No, I think you're wrong and I also think it's a case of not understand stats etc, which should be left to those that do! I may even be reading this wrong.

The data I'm referring to is from the US Dept of Social Security Admin and is an actuarial table based on 2017 for the nominated age. The link will be at the end.

If you were 75 yrs old in 2017 (i.e. 78 yrs old today) you have on av another 11 yrs to live with only a 4% chance of dying in the next 12 mths. John Hopkins Uni data says if you're in the 70-80 age bracket and you get cv19 you have a 30% of kicking the bucket (no link, look at their website). If you were born in 2017 you'd have an Av life expectancy of 76! You see, we die off quite a bit more than you think at an earlier age than most of us think as we've been caught up in the Av age thingy (a DAME informed me of this a number of yrs ago). 40 to 50 sees a number go from cancer and heart disease, so if you see 50 your chances of reaching the Av life expectancy increase, when you hit 60 it's likely to exceed the av and once you're 70 you're past it. And so on till like the example above you do quite a bit better. This goes on till you you're in your 80s, 80 in 2017 will see you get to 88 with only a 6% chance of kicking it in the next 12mths, unless you get cv, then you're screwed!

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

[blubak]

If it gets to 5000 hospitalised I’d be mildly concerned, this crap is getting beyond a joke. VIC has historically ripped the guts out of the health care system starting with Kennet all those years ago, You can get away with it until something like a pandemic hits. The virus always exposes the weakest link, and it has proven true, Victoria has copped it because of all the privatisation loving State libs they’ve had since Kennet. You reap what you sow. Pay peanuts get virus.
Thought we had a national healthcare system as in medicare?
How can a state take millions out of a fed govt run system however the fed govt HAS ripped millions out of the aged care system.
Get andrews to stand up for his quarantine debarcle & morrison for the aged care 1.

[Ragnor]

"The idea is not to politicise these individual administrative decisions.” Queen P has/has not control I don't know. It is not politicization to insist that all decisions especially ones of this magnitude be ultimately the responsibility of the elected representatives. If the Act doesn't build in a mechanism by which the Health Minister can override the CHO's regulations then the Act is deficient and ought to be amended immediately.Premier trips over bordersSARAH ELKS ROSIE LEWIS
NCA NEWSWIRE / SARAH MARSHALL

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on Friday
PALASZCZUK’S OFFICE SAYS SHE WAS WRONG IN DEFENDING BAN ON FUNERAL VISIT

The office of Annastacia Palaszczuk has conceded the Queensland Premier “misspoke” when she defended her state’s declaration of Canberra as a COVID “hotpot” which led to a young woman being denied permission to attend her father’s funeral.

Ms Palaszczuk said she was “heartbroken” seeing the images of ACT resident Sarah Caisip on Thursday, dressed in full PPE when she was allowed to briefly view her father’s body after being banned from attending the Brisbane funeral with her mother and 11-year-old sister.

The hardline stance in refusing to relax the mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine requirements for mourners has fuelled outrage after AFL players and celebrities were allowed to stay at resorts and five-star hotels.

At a press conference on Friday, Ms Palaszczuk said the ACT

— which has not had a COVID case in months — was still excluded because a man with COVID-19 had entered Queensland through the ACT.

This was incorrect. The man came from Sydney, via Canberra, into Queensland — but was never diagnosed with COVID-19.

A Queensland government spokeswoman later confirmed Ms Palaszczuk “misspoke”.

In the face of the fallout over the treatment of Ms Caisip, Ms Palaszczuk insisted she was powerless to make decisions about quarantine exemptions, with only Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young able to do that under the law.

“Everyone who has seen those images is heartbroken,” she said. “I don‘t make those decisions … under the act, it’s her (Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young) decision. We’ve got to take the clinical advice here.”

A statement from Queensland Health said Dr Young had “made the decision to include the ACT as a hotspot due to the frequent movement of NSW residents in and out of the territory”, despite entreaties from ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr that Canberra has never been a hotspot.

University of Queensland law professor Graeme Orr confirmed Dr Young held the power under Border Restrictions Direction No 13. “Only the CHO or her deputy can waive entering quarantine if you come from a hotspot, then only for really exceptional circumstances … and only a public health official can give permission to leave quarantine for exceptional circumstances,” he said.

“The idea is not to politicise these individual administrative decisions.”

In a moment of emotion during a press conference, Ms Palaszczuk responded to criticism from federal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann by revealing she had also lost a loved one during the pandemic.

“These are difficult decisions, they are heartbreaking,” she said. “These issues hurt me deeply. They hurt me deeply because during this pandemic I’ve lost loved ones as well.”

It was later confirmed Ms Palaszczuk’s grandmother died in June. She was able to attend her funeral.

Senator Cormann had said Ms Caisip “did not present a risk just for holding her dad’s hand while he was passing away”. The government’s Senate leader said the Palaszczuk government’s handling of her case was “just plain disgraceful” and “so cold-hearted”.

“You cannot tell me that the Premier of Queensland, if she had so chosen, would not have been persuasive in getting a more caring and a more appropriate outcome here,” he said.

[blubak]

"The idea is not to politicise these individual administrative decisions.” Queen P has/has not control I don't know. It is not politicization to insist that all decisions especially ones of this magnitude be ultimately the responsibility of the elected representatives. If the Act doesn't build in a mechanism by which the Health Minister can override the CHO's regulations then the Act is deficient and ought to be amended immediately.Premier trips over bordersSARAH ELKS ROSIE LEWIS
NCA NEWSWIRE / SARAH MARSHALL

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on Friday
PALASZCZUK’S OFFICE SAYS SHE WAS WRONG IN DEFENDING BAN ON FUNERAL VISIT

The office of Annastacia Palaszczuk has conceded the Queensland Premier “misspoke” when she defended her state’s declaration of Canberra as a COVID “hotpot” which led to a young woman being denied permission to attend her father’s funeral.

Ms Palaszczuk said she was “heartbroken” seeing the images of ACT resident Sarah Caisip on Thursday, dressed in full PPE when she was allowed to briefly view her father’s body after being banned from attending the Brisbane funeral with her mother and 11-year-old sister.

The hardline stance in refusing to relax the mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine requirements for mourners has fuelled outrage after AFL players and celebrities were allowed to stay at resorts and five-star hotels.

At a press conference on Friday, Ms Palaszczuk said the ACT

— which has not had a COVID case in months — was still excluded because a man with COVID-19 had entered Queensland through the ACT.

This was incorrect. The man came from Sydney, via Canberra, into Queensland — but was never diagnosed with COVID-19.

A Queensland government spokeswoman later confirmed Ms Palaszczuk “misspoke”.

In the face of the fallout over the treatment of Ms Caisip, Ms Palaszczuk insisted she was powerless to make decisions about quarantine exemptions, with only Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young able to do that under the law.

“Everyone who has seen those images is heartbroken,” she said. “I don‘t make those decisions … under the act, it’s her (Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young) decision. We’ve got to take the clinical advice here.”

A statement from Queensland Health said Dr Young had “made the decision to include the ACT as a hotspot due to the frequent movement of NSW residents in and out of the territory”, despite entreaties from ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr that Canberra has never been a hotspot.

University of Queensland law professor Graeme Orr confirmed Dr Young held the power under Border Restrictions Direction No 13. “Only the CHO or her deputy can waive entering quarantine if you come from a hotspot, then only for really exceptional circumstances … and only a public health official can give permission to leave quarantine for exceptional circumstances,” he said.

“The idea is not to politicise these individual administrative decisions.”

In a moment of emotion during a press conference, Ms Palaszczuk responded to criticism from federal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann by revealing she had also lost a loved one during the pandemic.

“These are difficult decisions, they are heartbreaking,” she said. “These issues hurt me deeply. They hurt me deeply because during this pandemic I’ve lost loved ones as well.”

It was later confirmed Ms Palaszczuk’s grandmother died in June. She was able to attend her funeral.

Senator Cormann had said Ms Caisip “did not present a risk just for holding her dad’s hand while he was passing away”. The government’s Senate leader said the Palaszczuk government’s handling of her case was “just plain disgraceful” and “so cold-hearted”.

“You cannot tell me that the Premier of Queensland, if she had so chosen, would not have been persuasive in getting a more caring and a more appropriate outcome here,” he said.
How can someone without a heart be 'heartbroken'.
So easy to shed crocodile tears & make vote appealing statements after f...ing up big time yet again.Is anyone really going to vote for her.

[Ragnor]

It’s QLD I think more would vote for her than you realize.

What is DF thoughts on the border and hard stance that Queen P has?!

[Bend alot]

Thought we had a national healthcare system as in medicare?
How can a state take millions out of a fed govt run system however the fed govt HAS ripped millions out of the aged care system.
Get andrews to stand up for his quarantine debarcle & morrison for the aged care 1.

Might want to check healthcare funding Australia.

GST is like Medicare, both are national systems - but devil in the detail.

[Stickshift3000]

Thought we had a national healthcare system as in medicare?
How can a state take millions out of a fed govt run system however the fed govt HAS ripped millions out of the aged care system.
Get andrews to stand up for his quarantine debarcle & morrison for the aged care 1.

Vic Hospitals and the health department are funded by state; both have been underfunded for many years.

[unobtanium]

For forks sake how hard is it to let someone be with there dying loved one? Ever heard of PPE? Put them in a hazmat suit, hell even a space suit let them be with there loved ones, then isolate them for 2 weeks. Crocodile tears on TV doesn't help.

[601]

Thought we had a national healthcare system as in medicare?
It is obvious by some statements that we should have more teaching in schools about how our system of Government in Australia operates and the State - Federal relationship.

Medicare is for ??????
States run the ????????????????
Feds fund ????????????????
.

[Xeptu]

It is obvious by some statements that we should have more teaching in schools about how our system of Governments of Australia operates

I couldn't agree more strongly. My 35 yr old son knows he must vote, but has absolutely no clue why, what Government is and does. I do believe that is slowly changing, Young people are taking more of an interest in specific issues but still don't know how it works.

[Joker89]

All the fear mongers should watch this. You just Need to follow the data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

[Bend alot]

All the fear mongers should watch this. You just Need to follow the data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac
So we are having the exact same "curve" result!

Just that needed an unprecedented travel restrictions and lock-downs to achieve - apples v apples.

Unless you state that restrictions and lock-downs have zero bearing on the curve. I assume you will supply that data.

[Bend alot]

I couldn't agree more strongly. My 35 yr old son knows he must vote, but has absolutely no clue why, what Government is and does. I do believe that is slowly changing, Young people are taking more of an interest in specific issues but still don't know how it works.
I have been a advocate for Basic Life Skills to be taught in schools as a core for many years - that includes understanding government/s and the agencies including tax and business.

[Joker89]

Ah yes, the “what if we didn’t argument”. The “models” can’t be wrong even in the face of overwhelming data on historical death rates against places that didn’t lock down and restrict Internal travel.

[Bend alot]

Ah yes, the “what if we didn’t argument”. The “models” can’t be wrong even in the face of overwhelming data on historical death rates against places that didn’t lock down and restrict Internal travel.
Can you list those places?

Everyone in the given graph did.

[exfocx]

All the fear mongers should watch this. You just Need to follow the data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac


Whose data; you mean the data YOU believe in? So all those other virologists, infectious diseases experts etc, who agree on the present path just don't get, while you, an aluminium tube driver does! You can sift through the material and see what they can't?

You are joking, aren't you?

[exfocx]

I have been a advocate for Basic Life Skills to be taught in schools as a core for many years - that includes understanding government/s and the agencies including tax and business.

With all due respect Bed alot, why? Xeptu, how did your son get to be 35 yrs old and not know any of that? Did you not talk to him about politics etc as he was growing up, about voting and why and how the system works?

I'd have though this is what a parent does as any normal part of raising your offspring. Finance, how it works, IRs, CCs Vs personal loans, saving Vs debt. Politics, as above.

[Joker89]

Whose data; you mean the data YOU believe in? So all those other virologists, infectious diseases experts etc, who agree on the present path just don't get, while you, an aluminium tube driver does! You can sift through the material and see what they can't?

You are joking, aren't you?

please produce some data analysis that supports your point of view, not models and “expert” opinion.

[Xeptu]

I have been a advocate for Basic Life Skills to be taught in schools as a core for many years - that includes understanding government/s and the agencies including tax and business.

It takes me back to my year 11 maths teacher, he was a pakistani, we called him Pakki Jones. He unknown to us at the time was an extraordinary math teacher. We didn't care about maths , we didn't want to be there, we wanted to get out of school and do it our way, like most teenagers. This is how he got our undivided attention. OK he said clearly you don't want to know anything about maths, lets do the very first thing you will need to know when you leave school, he pulled out a stack of Individual Tax Return Forms. We waded through it in sheer horror, whats a tax file number, oh that you have to apply for one of those it will be with you for the rest of your life. He became the schools most respected and best teacher of all time. (our time)

[Bend alot]

With all due respect Bed alot, why? Xeptu, how did your son get to be 35 yrs old and not know any of that? Did you not talk to him about politics etc as he was growing up, about voting and why and how the system works?

I'd have though this is what a parent does as any normal part of raising your offspring. Finance, how it works, IRs, CCs Vs personal loans, saving Vs debt. Politics, as above.
No actually, you do pass on things (generally what you know or learn)

My kids have been exposed to a lot - I guess they have learnt some stuff.

But none of the stuff you listed are general topics of family conversation, my kids know roughly that I have a will and where my money can be found (via a broker) but no details other than a rough amount and what I wish they would do with it.

[Bend alot]

It is very normal for that age group.

[Xeptu]

With all due respect Bed alot, why? Xeptu, how did your son get to be 35 yrs old and not know any of that? Did you not talk to him about politics etc as he was growing up, about voting and why and how the system works?

I'd have though this is what a parent does as any normal part of raising your offspring. Finance, how it works, IRs, CCs Vs personal loans, saving Vs debt. Politics, as above.

Yep! and they rolled their eyeballs, just like your kids did.

[exfocx]

please produce some data analysis that supports your point of view, not models and “expert” opinion.

Your problem is you think you have the capability and knowledge to interpret the data, and you obviously think those experts who haven't came to your conclusion can't. I don't.

If was as simple as you think, there wouldn't be differences of expert opinion.

[Section28- BE]

Airline rivals Qantas and Virgin join forces to demand Queensland opens its borders to help save hundreds of jobs - as the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the travel industry

Daily Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8725587/Travel-rivals-Qantas-Virgin-Flight-Centre-Helloworld-call-state-borders-reopen.html

rgds
S28

[Bend alot]

Daily Mail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8725587/Travel-rivals-Qantas-Virgin-Flight-Centre-Helloworld-call-state-borders-reopen.html

rgds
S28
Qantas and Virgin - save jobs!

Qantas certainly should be ashamed of its employment record during the pandemic.

[currawong]

AMA backs Queensland Chief Health Officer.

"Queensland's medical community has spoken out in support of the state's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young..."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-13/coronavirus-queensland-update-steven-miles-ama/12650214

[Turnleft080]

[QUOTE=currawong. AMA backs Queensland Chief Health Officer.
[i]"Queensland's medical community has spoken out in support of the state's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young..."

Oh, she's the one that calls the shots with border polices and rich people entering the state.
Anastasia is just the spokeswomen as Scotty's telephone call indicated last week.

[KRviator]

The single biggest problem with delegating authority for border closures to CHO's et al, is this. They are Doctors by profession! The very nature of a Doctors psyche is to prevent, or limit the spread of disease, no matter the cost. They are not economists, virologists or (shudder) politicians. They have no concept of the ramifications beyond their health-perspective bubble. Tell a Doctor they can "do whatever they need to to stop COVID in the State of <X>" and of course they are going to say "stop everyone coming in". Tell a Doctor "Do whatever you want to stop COVID, but obey the Constitution" and you would have a very different result.

[currawong]

The single biggest problem with delegating authority for border closures to CHO's et al, is this. They are Doctors by profession! The very nature of a Doctors psyche is to prevent, or limit the spread of disease, no matter the cost. They are not economists, virologists or (shudder) politicians. They have no concept of the ramifications beyond their health-perspective bubble. Tell a Doctor they can "do whatever they need to to stop COVID in the State of <X>" and of course they are going to say "stop everyone coming in". Tell a Doctor "Do whatever you want to stop COVID, but obey the Constitution" and you would have a very different result.

Valid argument, if there was nobody coming in....

[CaptCloudbuster]

Technically the QLD Premier was righ (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-11/coronavirus-when-grief-meets-politics-its-sad-and-ugly/12653080)t.Graeme Orr, professor of law at the University of Queensland, says it's clear the law provides that only a public health officer can let someone out of quarantine to go to a funeral. "Also, under the crime and corruption law it would be highly inappropriate for a minister to intervene."

Regardless of where the formal power rested, the affair has been damaging for the Premier and the CHO, and shows that if Queensland is to keep its border closed, more flexibility is needed in the system to deal better with compassionate cases.

[Ragnor]

QANTAS, Virgin, Helloworld and Flight Centre have launched a campaign to get QLD to open their border running it along with Queen P re-election campaign with a series of TV adds.

Haveing the domestic borders closed is costing the tourism industry billions and the loss of jobs to go with it, this election will be interesting to watch how Queen P sells the closure and what she will do to reignite the economy.

[C441]

I find it perplexing that strict the limitations that are applied on movement from Northern NSW where there have been few if any recent Covid cases do not apply to suburban Brisbane. There have been numerous positively confirmed cases in the southern and western suburbs of Brisbane but there are no limitations on the movement of people across the suburbs. Surely the CHO must have considered closing the border between the north and east and the south and western suburbs.:rolleyes: :*

[Turnleft080]

The single biggest problem with delegating authority for border closures to CHO's et al, is this. They are Doctors by profession! The very nature of a Doctors psyche is to prevent, or limit the spread of disease, no matter the cost. They are not economists, virologists or (shudder) politicians. They have no concept of the ramifications beyond their health-perspective bubble. Tell a Doctor they can "do whatever they need to to stop COVID in the State of <X>" and of course they are going to say "stop everyone coming in". Tell a Doctor "Do whatever you want to stop COVID, but obey the Constitution" and you would have a very different result.

You forgot one more thing. They have failed how to improve your immune system to limit the symptoms, and even prevent hospitalisation.
Not one iota since Jan. Nothing zilch. You know why? Money, money, money, it's so funny in a sick mans world. And woman.

Good grief I just found this, he's finally on to it. Never though I see the day.
https://www.insider.com/fauci-takes-recommends-vitamin-d-and-c-supplements-immunity-boost-2020-9

[Pugilistic Animus]

You following events in the USA?

The entire US has gone to pot. We'll either have a new civil war or we'll be destroyed as a nation from the pandemic. We may even get lucky and have both.

Joke.... Donald Trump caught the novel Corona virus, our thoughts and prayers are with the virus :}

[exfocx]

The single biggest problem with delegating authority for border closures to CHO's et al, is this. They are Doctors by profession! The very nature of a Doctors psyche is to prevent, or limit the spread of disease, no matter the cost. They are not economists, virologists or (shudder) politicians. They have no concept of the ramifications beyond their health-perspective bubble. Tell a Doctor they can "do whatever they need to to stop COVID in the State of <X>" and of course they are going to say "stop everyone coming in". Tell a Doctor "Do whatever you want to stop COVID, but obey the Constitution" and you would have a very different result.

So you're saying a Dr would have no idea of the economic consequences and If so I guess you'd say the same about an economist understanding the health consequences. Btw, what's to say a virologist isn't a Dr!

Edit: basically you're saying she isn't qualified to lead the response, can you tell us what you know of her quals to make that claim?

Can you tell me where the constitution has been ignored? Also wondering what you have to say about the av lfe expectancy thing.

[KRviator]

So you're saying a Dr would have no idea of the economic consequences and If so I guess you'd say the same about an economist understanding the health consequences. Btw, what's to say a virologist isn't a Dr!

Edit: basically you're saying she isn't qualified to lead the response, can you tell us what you know of her quals to make that claim?

Can you tell me where the constitution has been ignored? Also wondering what you have to say about the av lfe expectancy thing.I'm saying that the priority of the CHO is to control the spread, and so long as they think they have the authority to shut out well over 60% of the Australian population as a means to an end then they will do that.

As for the Constitution, you can try by looking at s.117 "A subject of the Queen, resident in any State, shall not be subject in any other State to any disability or discrimination which would not be equally applicable to him if he were a subject of the Queen resident in such other State." Now, the "standard test" as proposed by Justice Stephen in Henry v Boehm (slightly paraphrased) is to take two citizens, identical in every way, bar their state of residence, and ask the question "Can they do the same thing, and are they subject to the same penalties?".

You tell me that a citizen in Logan, Qld, where AIUI there has been confirmed transmission can travel to the Brisbane CBD, yet a citizen of Lismore, NSW cannot even enter Queensland, and the sole basis on which she has been rejected entry is she is from New South Wales, does not violate s.117. As was found in the Palmer v WA (No 4) trial, there are "reasonable alternative measures" that would not increase the risk to the WA population, yet they have not been introduced. Residents of NSW & Vic are still locked out of WA based on nothing more than their state of residence, no matter the amount - or lack thereof - of COVID cases in their locality.

And when you consider how many international arrivals Qld is taking per capita, they are managing less than 1/3rd of that entering NSW (91/Million, vs NSW at 301/Million) yet Anna-Stayaway has the gall to list their entire state as a 'hotspot' because her state isn't pulling its' weight? Puh-lease.

[michigan j]

So you're saying a Dr would have no idea of the economic consequences and If so I guess you'd say the same about an economist understanding the health consequences. Btw, what's to say a virologist isn't a Dr!

Fantastic news! Apparently foreigners can pay to get in now. How much is it per person please?
As for my Indian mate who cant come in to see his dying brother, I would like to set a GoFundMe to allow him in. How much do we need to raise to get him an exemption?

[Bend alot]

I'm saying that the priority of the CHO is to control the spread, and so long as they think they have the authority to shut out well over 60% of the Australian population as a means to an end then they will do that.

As for the Constitution, you can try by looking at s.117 "A subject of the Queen, resident in any State, shall not be subject in any other State to any disability or discrimination which would not be equally applicable to him if he were a subject of the Queen resident in such other State." Now, the "standard test" as proposed by Justice Stephen in Henry v Boehm (slightly paraphrased) is to take two citizens, identical in every way, bar their state of residence, and ask the question "Can they do the same thing, and are they subject to the same penalties?".

You tell me that a citizen in Logan, Qld, where AIUI there has been confirmed transmission can travel to the Brisbane CBD, yet a citizen of Lismore, NSW cannot even enter Queensland, and the sole basis on which she has been rejected entry is she is from New South Wales, does not violate s.117. As was found in the Palmer v WA (No 4) trial, there are "reasonable alternative measures" that would not increase the risk to the WA population, yet they have not been introduced. Residents of NSW & Vic are still locked out of WA based on nothing more than their state of residence, no matter the amount - or lack thereof - of COVID cases in their locality.

And when you consider how many international arrivals Qld is taking per capita, they are managing less than 1/3rd of that entering NSW (91/Million, vs NSW at 301/Million) yet Anna-Stayaway has the gall to list their entire state as a 'hotspot' because her state isn't pulling its' weight? Puh-lease.
NSW & ACT were/are happy for Victoria to be open to them - they knew QLD was not happy with Victorians entering - but happy to facilitate that they did (put no barrier to protect QLD interest).

A result the third party interest (NSW/ACT) in border crossings got a penalty.

Funny part is they both learnt that the border restriction for Victoria was justified and both introduced them soon after - but both have proven they run the Jack system.

[exfocx]

I'm saying that the priority of the CHO is to control the spread, and so long as they think they have the authority to shut out well over 60% of the Australian population as a means to an end then they will do that.

As for the Constitution, you can try by looking at s.117 "A subject of the Queen, resident in any State, shall not be subject in any other State to any disability or discrimination which would not be equally applicable to him if he were a subject of the Queen resident in such other State." Now, the "standard test" as proposed by Justice Stephen in Henry v Boehm (slightly paraphrased) is to take two citizens, identical in every way, bar their state of residence, and ask the question "Can they do the same thing, and are they subject to the same penalties?".

You tell me that a citizen in Logan, Qld, where AIUI there has been confirmed transmission can travel to the Brisbane CBD, yet a citizen of Lismore, NSW cannot even enter Queensland, and the sole basis on which she has been rejected entry is she is from New South Wales, does not violate s.117. As was found in the Palmer v WA (No 4) trial, there are "reasonable alternative measures" that would not increase the risk to the WA population, yet they have not been introduced. Residents of NSW & Vic are still locked out of WA based on nothing more than their state of residence, no matter the amount - or lack thereof - of COVID cases in their locality.

And when you consider how many international arrivals Qld is taking per capita, they are managing less than 1/3rd of that entering NSW (91/Million, vs NSW at 301/Million) yet Anna-Stayaway has the gall to list their entire state as a 'hotspot' because her state isn't pulling its' weight? Puh-lease.

Ah, now I see the problem, you're a pilot, infectious diseases expert, virologist, Dr and now a constitutional lawyer! Prof Anne Twomey a well known constitutional lawyer said (as did others) at the start of the border closures that McGowan was well within the constitutional limits in closing the borders, as time went on she said that control of cv would weaken his position, then the Vic issues changed that again. The general consensus of Palmer's case over here was that is was in general to McGowan's advantage. I think you're making the mistake of taking a Judges ruling, without any contextual knowledge of it and applying in a broad brush fashion, most likely inappropriately.

You again make the mistake of thinking you're more than just a pilot. Btw, what is your response in relation to your "knowledge" of Av life expectancy?

[exfocx]

[QUOTE=KRviator;10884168]I'm saying that the priority of the CHO is to control the spread, and so long as they think they have the authority to shut out well over 60% of the Australian population as a means to an end then they will do that...........[/Q

You're suffering from overreach. What is her order of priority and how would you know what she thinks? Do you think that whatever advice she gives the QLD Premier that there would also be legal advice given by the QLD Attorney General & the QLD Crown Solicitors Office??

Btw, you have seen the comments on the data that the greater the death rate the greater the degree of economic damage?

Edit: Apologies, I don't know what financial impact cv is having on you and thus your views.

[Bend alot]

Btw, you have seen the comments on the data that the greater the death rate the greater the degree of economic damage?



No actually I have not, I have heard it is way too early (a few years) to know that economic result.

[slats11]

Is Victoria a real epidemic, or just a casedemic.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=8UvFhIFzaac#menu

40 minutes but worth a look.
Argues that 20% of population are susceptible to COVID, and 80% have a degree of immunity from previous CV with enough cross-reactivity.
Also that the epidemiology curves are pretty much baked in regardless of measures like lockdowns or masks.
and that you need to look at death data. Case data is confusing because how many cases (or how many positive PCR tests you get) depends on how much testing you do.
The world has probably over-reacted to this. And this over-reaction may have been the entire point.

[Turnleft080]

Hey slats at 12:54 he said we are doing things in history that we haven't tried before.
i.e. locking down healthy people I would assume. We haven't locked away healthy people at all not in any civilisation
or generation. Until now.
Just shows how governments hit the panic button, except Sweden of course.
Should be shown to Sutton/Andrews and they will immediately dismiss all the data,
even though they think its correct.
We will just supercomputer it, she'll be right mate.

[slats11]

We haven’t ever used an incredibly sensitive test (able to find virus in sewage) to define people with no symptoms as diseased, and using the numbers of such diseased people to make decisions on locking down a city of 5M.
No, I don’t think we have tried that before.
But let’s see how it turns out.

[slats11]

Dan seems to be in his own world.

The Victorian CHO has admitted he didn’t recommend the Victorian curfew.

The Commonwealth CHO has described Victoria’s path as very conservative.

While COVID is an issue, we need to be careful not to just examine one side of the ledger. There are enormous long term health and economic costs to these lockdowns. The problem is that it will be too late by the time the final cost is known.

[Sunfish]

Dan seems to me to be a closet sadist and a megalomaniac. He seems to me to be getting pleasure out of the infliction of pain. That is the only construction I can put on the emotionless kabuki. we get every morning along with the constant micro management of everything.

What is particularly repellant is his deliberate and nasty use of the epidemic to advance his personal prejudices:

Hunting, firearm and ammunition sales were banned.

Golf banned, but Bicycling and walking allowed.

No access to holiday homes. No camping, no caravanning.

Boating banned - you still aren’t even allowed to sit in your boat on a mooring or in a marina!

Flying banned in greater Melbourne.

....And of course no protests, unless it’s for BLM.

[Joker89]

Throughout history, governments and leaders have used fear to influence and control people. Fear of going to hell, fear of crime, fear of immigration etc. Look at the ridiculous curfews, inconsistent rules and heavy handed police tactics, I Suggest that’s more scary than COVID.

[Chronic Snoozer]

the emotionless kabuki. we get every morning along with the constant micro management of everything.

Exactly what I'm thinking. A roll call of statistics read out every day. Doesn't he have anything better to do?

[brokenagain]

I wonder how the 7 people that died in Victoria yesterday from/with COVID compares to the 125 Victorians that died on average each day at the same time last year, that we didn’t get a daily update for.

[Stickshift3000]

Well, this made me smile (and it's aviation related!):
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-14/qld-plane-banner-she-is-heartless-election-palaszczuk-borders/12660222

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/862x575/12660372_3x2_xlarge_16d7c5b938004067313394507f8ff92c4ef5fa71 .jpg

[galdian]

Should be followed up by:

" IT'S ALL ABOUT THE POLITICS STUPID! "

[Roj approved]

Maybe this is a good idea?

[Black Maria]

This says it all in relation to the Qld Borders.....

Sydney family wishing to see ill father in Queensland, finally granted permission after becoming AFL footballers.

Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she will allow a Sydney family to enter the state in order to see their critically ill father, after learning the family had become professional footballers.

The family took the unusual step of becoming professional athletes, after it became clear there was no other way to enter the state.

“We did consider becoming Tom Hanks and shooting a movie on the Gold Coast, but in the end we decided it would be easier to get on the list of an AFL club,” family member Emily Bryson said.

“In hindsight we should’ve just become an AFL administrator, rather than going through all of the training to become a player, but that’s in the past now”.

Premier Palaszczuk said she made no apologies for Queensland’s border restrictions. “I want to be very clear: we are doing this to keep all Queenslanders safe and to win an election. So unless your work is absolutely vital – like playing four quarters of footy or making a movie about Elvis Presley – you aren’t welcome”.

[blubak]

This says it all in relation to the Qld Borders.....

Sydney family wishing to see ill father in Queensland, finally granted permission after becoming AFL footballers.

Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she will allow a Sydney family to enter the state in order to see their critically ill father, after learning the family had become professional footballers.

The family took the unusual step of becoming professional athletes, after it became clear there was no other way to enter the state.

“We did consider becoming Tom Hanks and shooting a movie on the Gold Coast, but in the end we decided it would be easier to get on the list of an AFL club,” family member Emily Bryson said.

“In hindsight we should’ve just become an AFL administrator, rather than going through all of the training to become a player, but that’s in the past now”.

Premier Palaszczuk said she made no apologies for Queensland’s border restrictions. “I want to be very clear: we are doing this to keep all Queenslanders safe and to win an election. So unless your work is absolutely vital – like playing four quarters of footy or making a movie about Elvis Presley – you aren’t welcome”.
Like i have said many times,she(but not alone) likes all the things that make her look good but doesnt like when the actual facts come out about things she tries to hide.
Their cho is another joke,if she cant cop criticism,move on.

[Section28- BE]

Extract:
Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young has been placed under police protection after receiving death threats.Key points:

Threats have been made against the Chief Health Officer life
Dr Jeannette Young had been receiving up to 100 requests for exemptions per day
Queensland recorded zero new coronavirus cases for the second consecutive day


Dr Young has come under mounting criticism due to her stance on border restrictions, but said she now feels safe and supported after being placed under police protection.

Article link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-14/coronavirus-queensland-records-zero-new-cases-second-consecutive/12650210

rgds
S28

[Turnleft080]

I want to make it very clear, in fact clearer than clear! Now look, I couldn't make this any clearer than the last time of making it clear. The fact is the matter in my mind is clear.
What part of making it clear don't you get. For heavens sake for the final time let me make it clear we have said "I want to make it clear" more times this year than in the last
120 years of federation. Are we clear. Crystal.

written and spoken by, The lets make it clear party. The clear road to recovery.

[Xeptu]

Well, I think we are agreed, this is serious, of the most serious seriousness.

[Turnleft080]

Well, I think we are agreed, this is serious, of the most serious seriousness.

YEEEEEEEEEES minister.

[Xeptu]

Seriously Serious!
I don't think that is the right question and I want to make this quite clear, this is a very serious matter.

I loved that show.

[Turnleft080]

Seriously Serious!
I don't think that is the right question and I want to make this quite clear, this is a very serious matter.

I loved that show.


Jenny Mikakos, Sutton, Dan Andrews verses Sir Humphrey, Bernard, Jim Hacker. I can't distinguish, the better show.

[dr dre]

ABC News: Chief Health Officer responds to toll of receiving death threats......


Jeanette Young is Qld’s Chief Health Officer and has been in the role for 15 years, a professor in the School of Public Health at UQ, a former Director of Medical Services at hospitals, an ER doctor and dealt with the Swine Flu and MERS epidemics in her time as CHO.

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have? And who has stoked a mindset where a doctor has received death threats (actual credible threats as she requires protection) for doing her job? I can think of some culprits in our media for starters....

[flamingmoe]

Jeanette Young is Qld’s Chief Health Officer and has been in the role for 15 years, a professor in the School of Public Health at UQ, a former Director of Medical Services at hospitals, an ER doctor and dealt with the Swine Flu and MERS epidemics in her time as CHO.

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have? And who has stoked a mindset where a doctor has received death threats (actual credible threats as she requires protection) for doing her job? I can think of some culprits in our media for starters....

Thanks for the resume, Dre...so she’s beyond critique, is she? Are you satisfied with her management of the border..which should never have been closed in the first place?

[KRviator]

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have?At a guess, they're people who don't have the Government-funded silver spoon in their mouth and actually have to work for a living... If the CHO's are really that concerned about the death toll, why do they still permit tobacco use - arguably the single most-easily controlled way to prevent lung and bronchial cancer, that killed 8,684 people in Australia last year......

As has been stated above, they're Doctors. They may be very good Doctors, but they are still just Doctors. They have been granted extraordinary powers, powers that have never-before been issued in Australia in this manner, which have no appeal process and no recourse or any other oversight. A fundamental concept in the legal system in Australia, and elsewhere, is the right to appeal. Under WA & Qld restrictions, there is nothing of the sort. No means no and if you're on the wrong side of that answer, you're screwed, without so much as a "Sorry Bucko!".

Tell a Doctor you can close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and of course they will jump at that opportunity. Tell an Economist to close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and they'd be aghast at the thought. The issue is finding the appropriate middle ground, something WA and Qld have yet to do, especially when Qld is taking less than 1/3rd of the International Arrivals of NSW...

[slats11]

So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)

USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents

Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.

For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.

So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks

COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.

But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."

And maybe we have got this out of proportion.

[Xeptu]

So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)

USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents

Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.

For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.

So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks

COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.

But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."

And maybe we have got this out of proportion.

How many times to we have to say it, "ITS NOT ABOUT DYING" it's about infection and the chances of being returned to normal. The evidence thus far suggests you don't. 21 million from 8 billion is not enough to know for sure what that is along with the relatively short time frame to access long term impact of an infection.

If everyone recovered said, yeah fully restored no difference at all and there doesn't appear to be any longer term issues either, then yes, we the greater majority probably would be willing to take that risk and let it rip. Until we have those answers or a vaccine becomes available so we don't need to know those answers, we proceed with great caution. It would be foolish to do otherwise. I still wouldn't agree to it, if it meant sacrificing our medical staff as has been the case globally.

[slats11]

My suspicion is the long term health implications have been greatly overstated.

With high background rates of anxiety and saturation media coverage, lots of weird things will be put down to COVID.

There will also be enormous publication bias (professional and mainstream media). Someone saying they have persisting XYZ will get reported, no matter how implausible any link.

if you doubt the power of these phenomena, just think back to that curious 1980’s Australian epidemic of RSI.

[Xeptu]

My suspicion is the long term health implications have been greatly overstated.

If you truly believe that and your motivations are strictly unselfish, then you should volunteer to become infected, either as part of a scientific study or a part of the vaccine drug trial.
Why wouldn't you, this is an overstated nothingness right!.

[slats11]

I think I specifically said that it was not a nothing. Yep - 3rd last paragraph.

Working on the health frontline I am happy taking my chances.

And I’ll be happy enough to have the vaccine. The safety data will be rushed of course, with no long term data. But it will probably be ok. Besides it will be compulsory for health so won’t make any difference if I wasn’t happy.

[Xeptu]

I think I specifically said that it was not a nothing. Yep - 3rd last paragraph.

Working on the health frontline I am happy taking my chances.

And I’ll be happy enough to have the vaccine. The safety data will be rushed of course, with no long term data. But it will probably be ok. Besides it will be compulsory for health so won’t make any difference if I wasn’t happy.

So why are you posting statistical data, that may or may not be presented in context that support your suspicious view.

[Xeptu]

You guys are entitled to lobby for support, I get it, that's democracy. I don't believe for a minute you'll be successful, but on an outside chance you are and secure a greater majority, then we the minority will have to take it on the chin, walkaway and isolate ourselves. The problem with that in our state is that we can't cope with a VIC type crisis with all hands on deck as it is, a good number of those have already declared that should that happen we have no choice but to walk away and isolate. That situation extends to a good number of essential community services. It's likely to collapse the functional economy of the state, particularly around the capital city. A big call for a covid unaffected state.

The important things to us
We don't want to get infected
We want to live as normally as possible within our state to the crisis is passed
Most importantly we don't want to crash our economy or overwhelm essential services.
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls

[KRviator]

The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...

[Xeptu]

The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...

With all hands on deck, we have declared that won't be happening.

[slats11]

So what exactly is the Victorian crisis.

105 hospital admissions? 3 wards. Across the whole state.

11 in ICU? Australia has 2000 ICU beds (public and private) and have surge capacity of another 2000. Of these 4000, figure 25% are in Victoria. So 11/1000 = 1% of resources.

Elderly deaths in residential aged care facilities? Yes that is sad.
About 200,000 Australians live in RACF. So maybe 50,000 in Victoria.
Another way to think of this number is 5-6% of Victorians older than 65.
Approx 20% of these people (so 10,000) die in a given year. That normally passes unnoticed. Infections, dementia, neglect, falls & trauma, cancer, suicide ... 10,000 per year.
Against that background, 500 RACF deaths is sad but perhaps not a crisis.

What about the other side of the ledger. What about the costs of lockdown
Increased mental health and self harm
Increased drug use.
Increased domestic violence
Increased child abuse
Kids disconnected from school
Economic costs
Businesses closed down
Families losing their homes

it’s not a simple exercise to balance these

But it is intellectually dishonest not to at least recognise the other side of the ledger.

[currawong]

The QLD (like all the others) border is not closed.

Restricted. Not closed.

Entry is conditional. Not closed.

Some people just don't get it.

[Xeptu]

This is where stats and expectations don't necessarily work, So what really happened and I get this from my own girls ok. VIC didn't get anywhere near what they planned to cope with before they were calling out for help. Not many put their hand up, but some went to help. It didn't work they discovered their systems and procedures are different, they were next to useless to them and managed to get themselves infected as well. It was an epic fail. Two that got infected were under 30 and are still not recovered back to normal. If anything it has strengthened their resolve to keep the borders closed.

[Chronic Snoozer]

You guys are entitled to lobby for support, I get it, that's democracy. I don't believe for a minute you'll be successful, but on an outside chance you are and secure a greater majority, then we the minority will have to take it on the chin, walkaway and isolate ourselves. The problem with that in our state is that we can't cope with a VIC type crisis with all hands on deck as it is, a good number of those have already declared that should that happen we have no choice but to walk away and isolate. That situation extends to a good number of essential community services. It's likely to collapse the functional economy of the state, particularly around the capital city. A big call for a covid unaffected state.

The important things to us
We don't want to get infected
We want to live as normally as possible within our state to the crisis is passed
Most importantly we don't want to crash our economy or overwhelm essential services.
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls

Do not make the mistake of speaking for everyone within the state of WA.

that's democracy. Maintaining a border "closure" and stipulating that 6 other states must concurrently show no community transmission for 28 consecutive days before reopening doesn't sound like democracy. Prohibiting travel between two Australian cities which have no known cases without mandatory two weeks quarantine is not particularly democratic. It's risk avoidance not risk management. Like aviation, things would all be a lot safer if we just all stayed at home.

Maybe the next decision will be to vaccinate everyone (when its available) and let's just see if it actually works outside the state before we reopen. That should only take another 6 months or so.

With all hands on deck, we have declared that won't be happening. Classic storeman's excuse, you can't have the last one someone might need it.

[Xeptu]

Do not make the mistake of speaking for everyone within the state of WA.

I'm sorry you're quite right, "what is important to the majority of us"

[Chronic Snoozer]

I'm sorry you're quite right, "what is important to the majority of us"

I remember seeing something about approval ratings but no substantial survey. Do you have the link?

[Xeptu]

I remember seeing something about approval ratings but no substantial survey. Do you have the link?

Better still, do one yourself, any populated area, select 10 random people and ask the question. You should get around 8 in 10 say borders closed for now anyway.

I don't have a link, the polls get taken down

[Bend alot]

So what exactly is the Victorian crisis.

105 hospital admissions? 3 wards. Across the whole state.

11 in ICU? Australia has 2000 ICU beds (public and private) and have surge capacity of another 2000. Of these 4000, figure 25% are in Victoria. So 11/1000 = 1% of resources.

Elderly deaths in residential aged care facilities? Yes that is sad.
About 200,000 Australians live in RACF. So maybe 50,000 in Victoria.
Another way to think of this number is 5-6% of Victorians older than 65.
Approx 20% of these people (so 10,000) die in a given year. That normally passes unnoticed. Infections, dementia, neglect, falls & trauma, cancer, suicide ... 10,000 per year.
Against that background, 500 RACF deaths is sad but perhaps not a crisis.

What about the other side of the ledger. What about the costs of lockdown
Increased mental health and self harm
Increased drug use.
Increased domestic violence
Increased child abuse
Kids disconnected from school
Economic costs
Businesses closed down
Families losing their homes

it’s not a simple exercise to balance these

But it is intellectually dishonest not to at least recognise the other side of the ledger.


Victoria running out of healthcare staff - you can can 25 million beds, but they need to be staffed.

RACF - not sure your number/s are correct - but MOST aged care is NOT in aged care facilities.

MOST aged care is not government funded either.

[KRviator]

The QLD (like all the others) border is not closed.
Restricted. Not closed.
Entry is conditional. Not closed.
Some people just don't get it.Semantics.

The Western Australia border is closed to NSW and VIC residents if you are not:

a senior Government official who is carrying out the official's duties, is responsible (alone or with others) for the safety of the Nation or a State or territory against threats such as terrorism, war, or espionage and is required to be present in Western Australia in connection with those duties;
Active military personnel (including members of the Australian Defence Force Reserve on active duty) required to be on duty in Western Australia while in Western Australia; or
A person who is carrying out functions under a law of the Commonwealth
The Premier of Western Australia and any member or members of the Premier's staff
A Commonwealth parliamentarian or
Are specifically authorised by the Emergency Services Commissioner.

The other 14,500,000 citizens who are not one of those categories are forbidden from entering Western Australia.

You can call the border "restricted" all you want. The practical effect of the directions though, is to specifically exclude nearly 60% of Australian's citizens from entering WA, based on nothing more than the Citizens state of residence.

[michigan j]

The other 14,500,000 citizens who are not one of those categories are forbidden from entering Western Australia.

You can call the border "restricted" all you want. The practical effect of the directions though, is to specifically exclude nearly 60% of Australian's citizens from entering WA, based on nothing more than the Citizens state of residence.
And to add to this, WA residents who are overseas practically cant get in either...

PM Morrison added that the reason the government was asking airlines to reduce seats was that the country can’t technically turn away citizens at the border. The move will come into effect from Monday and will be followed shortly after by plans to charge those returning for their hotel accommodation.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/07/airlines-ordered-to-halve-passengers-arriving-into-australia-84831/

[currawong]

If you need to go for something important, apply for an exemption.

Then number 6 will apply.

Others have. :ok:

certain senior Government Officials
certain active military personnel
a member of the Commonwealth Parliament and any members of their staff travelling with them
a person carrying out functions under a law of the Commonwealth
the Premier of WA and any members of the Premier's staff
a person coming to WA at the request of the Chief Health Officer or the Director General of Health
any person (other than an airline or maritime crew member) responsible for transport or freight and logistics services into or out of WA

[Stickshift3000]

Lots of people still trying to return home to Aus - am I the only one that wants to get out for a holiday (to NZ) but can’t!?

[Chronic Snoozer]

No. Definitely not the only one.

[Square Bear]

[/QUOTE] You should get around 8 in 10 say borders closed for now anyway.[/QUOTE]

You would probably get the same result if the question was about succession from the Federation.....and that result would be down to parochialism rather than common sense......No difference to Covid, at least IMHO.

[dr dre]

Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls

Where has that been stated? The only thing from the WA government has been a revisiting of Stage 5 and border procedures in late October (conveniently before the November High Court case is heard btw). They have not said a thing about vaccines or rapid tests, so you’re making stuff up.

A reliable vaccine may be 2-3 years away from distribution. 91% may support it today, but for the next 2-3 years?

I think the key date for full reopening in WA will be March, state election + end of Jobkeeper.

Don’t think there isn’t talk in WA about the border control (https://www.6pr.com.au/podcast/would-wa-business-support-the-state-reopening-before-jobkeeper-finishes/)

[ruprecht]

You would probably get the same result if the question was about succession from the Federation.....and that result would be down to parochialism rather than common sense......No difference to Covid, at least IMHO.

Yup. It’s WA — you just need to mention it’s a threat from “The East” and 8 out of 10 will grab their pitchforks and head for the border. :hmm:

[Ragnor]

Mr Marshall has said they could open their borders as early as tomorrow, they are meeting with the transitional committee in the morning if they advise its good to go then by afternoon we could see free travel. Then QLD will look stupid when NSW,ACT,SA and NT from Oct 9th are freely travel.

Then that imbecile SM will have egg on his face.

[michigan j]

For info in case anyone finds this useful... Latest arrival data.

All overseas arrivals to Australia in August 2020 (provisional estimates):
• 15,400 estimated trips, 8,800 of these are Australian citizens
• 9.1% of all arrivals were those arriving on temporary other visas.

The three largest visa groups arriving in Australia in August 2020 were:
• Temporary other visas (1,400)
• Permanent skilled visas (940)
• Temporary visitor visas (910).
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3401.0.55.004

[KRviator]

If you need to go for something important, apply for an exemption.

Then number 6 will apply.Let's see there...

This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.

​​​​​​​Application status: REJECTED. Reason for unsuccessful application: Proposed travel itinerary as you have declared that you will be in Victoria in the 14 days prior to your arrival in Western Australia. (Note, I didn't declare that at all, their website coding wasn't up to date. I haven't been in Victoria in years)

​​​​​​​This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.

Application status: REJECTED. In line with the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 2) your G2G PASS has NOT BEEN APPROVED for entry into Western Australia (Due to being in NSW within the last 14 days).

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.

​​​​​​​Application status:REJECTED. In line with Section 5 (e)(i) of the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 3) your G2G PASS has NOT BEEN APPROVED for entry into Western Australia.


Yep, those important things, you know, like being able to put food on the table, or keep the lights on, because I'm not eligible for JobKeeper or Centerlink benefits really mean a lot to the team at Operation Tide who overseas those applications. BTW, go have a look at the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 2) order. People from NSW were still permitted to travel, but Victoria was locked out. But still the application was rejected and you have no recourse, no avenue to appeal.

[Bend alot]

For info in case anyone finds this useful... Latest arrival data.

All overseas arrivals to Australia in August 2020 (provisional estimates):
• 15,400 estimated trips, 8,800 of these are Australian citizens
• 9.1% of all arrivals were those arriving on temporary other visas.

The three largest visa groups arriving in Australia in August 2020 were:
• Temporary other visas (1,400)
• Permanent skilled visas (940)
• Temporary visitor visas (910).
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3401.0.55.004

A 309 is a temporary visa (other) and they have paid many thousands of $'s and often waited 18+ months for that visa.

Any reason you singled that group?

[Turnleft080]

Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen-post10884710.html#post10884710)
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls



A reliable quick test is being tested in Israel at the moment. Without looking up anything I did see a news item on it last week
on 3aw. It would provide a 30 sec result. It would be 98% accurate. Well lets hope it's a goer.
This will come out before any vaccine I reckon. If available it would open all borders (wether you like it or not premiers) crossing by car, bus, train, plane, at check in or at the crossings.
Your negative go through, your positive turn back and isolate. Probably still not good enough for the premiers.
Watching this space though.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen-post10884710.html#post10884710)
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls



A reliable quick test is being tested in Israel at the moment. Without looking up anything I did see a news item on it last week
on 3aw. It would provide a 30 sec result. It would be 98% accurate. Well lets hope it's a goer.
This will come out before any vaccine I reckon. If available it would open all borders (wether you like it or not premiers) crossing by car, bus, train, plane, at check in or at the crossings.
Your negative go through, your positive turn back and isolate. Probably still not good enough for the premiers.
Watching this space though.
We are very good at drug and alcohol detection in the workplace within our mining industry, we have zero tolerance yet they still keep turning up in full knowledge of that. These are small numbers and it's dealt with and managed well. That's still a problem though and it shouldn't be happening. A reliable quick test for covid would be no different.
Confidence that a plane load of passengers are arriving negative and proven on arrival would do it for me. I have no doubt it would do it for the greater majority too.
It would be a brave government that refused the decision of the greater majority in any state and in reality I don't believe they would.

[michigan j]

A 309 is a temporary visa (other) and they have paid many thousands of $'s and often waited 18+ months for that visa.

Any reason you singled that group?
Calm down.That is a direct cut and paste from the ABS "Key Statistics"

[Bend alot]

Calm down.That is a direct cut and paste from the ABS "Key Statistics"
Then what do the 300 folk that are onshore meant to do?

Stats are only good if you understand a bit about them.

I do hope you will answer the 300 guys in a real bad time line position - I do not think they have any options but become illegal.

I know of only 2 cases that months ago got out and back in.

Many of the skilled visas were also granted long ago with PR and every right to enter.

Tourist visas (but that covers possibly many of Tom Hanks crew) is very low - I do not see the point of your post.

[Sunfish]

The reason the international borders are closed is to avoid the arrival of millions of well heeled citizens of third world countries seeking an escape from their homeland covid epidemics.

[Ragnor]

Queen P puts up $200 million for Virgin to remain in Brisbane, then she closes border virgin sack staff then claims she would rather loose election than open the border virgin sack more staff....mostly in Brisbane money well spent again QLD.‘In the midst of the worst crisis’: up to 250 Virgin head office jobs face axehttps://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0e57965c4efc9bc466e8cec759d896c?width=650 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0e57965c4efc9bc466e8cec759d896c)Virgin Australia wide-body aircraft are seen grounded at the Brisbane Airport. Picture: Glenn Hunt

exclusiveImogen Reid (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Imogen+Reid)

Virgin Australia has warned its recovery plans have been “severely impacted” by Victoria’s COVID-19 and ongoing border closures, informing staff the airline was likely to make up to 250 head office positions redundant.

In a note to staff on Monday, Virgin chief executive Paul Scurrah said the aviation industry was “in the midst of the worst crisis” it had ever faced.

“Our cash management throughout this period is absolutely critical,” Mr Scurrah wrote.

“One of our largest costs is labour, and with much less transitionary work required as the administration process is coming to an end and without the revenue coming through the door, we simply cannot justify the number of team members who are currently stood up.”

The redundancies will be the second since the airline was purchased by private equity outfit Bain Capital after it fell into administration in April as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered airports and left planes stranded.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0b42a4e6a851ed56a4f0a00ad04ffbf8?width=320 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0b42a4e6a851ed56a4f0a00ad04ffbf8)Virgin chief executive Paul Scurrah at the company’s Southbank office. Picture: Tara CroserVirgin announced earlier this month it would make a third of its workforce — around 3000 people — redundant.

Mr Scurrah, who has remained the company’s chief executive through the Deloitte-run administration, said staff who had been stood down would likely remain so until March 2021, a position which would be reviewed in January.

‘Consultation will occur immediately for roles which are identified as no longer being required as a result of the smaller operation and reduced work,” Mr Scurrah wrote.

“We expect around 150 roles to be impacted in addition to the 250 head office roles that have recently been impacted within the operations division.”

But Virgin will also begin a comprehensive review of the way head office works, with Mr Scurrah suggesting it would be redesigned “to suit a smaller, simpler operation”.

“The reality is this will also have the regrettable impact of further job losses,” he wrote.

“I’m aware that for many of you it will feel like we have already done this … last year.

“However, the world and our business have significantly changed since then which must be addressed.”

Virgin last week permanently shut down its Tigerair budget brand after 13 years, although it will retain the air operator certificate so it can revive a low-cost carrier when the domestic travel market has recovered.

As part of Bain Capital’s plan, Virgin will simplify its fleet and largely operate Boeing 737s, removing ATRs, Boeing 777s, Airbus A330s and Airbus A320s.

Virgin’s larger rival, Qantas, has also made significant job cuts through the year. Most recently, it announced 2500 positions across Qantas and its Jetstar brand would be made redundant on top of 6000 jobs cut in June.

Qantas in August recorded a $2bn loss as the coronavirus pandemic pushed full-year revenue down by 21 per cent.

Qantas shares ended up three per cent on Monday at $3.94.

Bain Capital, which offered $3.5bn for Virgin, has had the backing of the Transport Workers Union after the private equity group gave commitments to keep the airline as a full-service carrier and not switch to a low-cost model.

Mr Scurrah told staff on Monday that it was “clear that the impacts of various government decisions to deal with COVID continue to subdue demand for flying”.

“With our current capacity sitting at around 10 per cent, which is supported by federal government subsidies to ensure some limited transportation infrastructure remains functional, the outlook has never been less certain.

“Regrettably, we must again take action to address the impact of this ongoing crisis on our business,” he said.

[Sunfish]

This is just one. of many disappointments in store..

[blubak]

Queen P puts up $200 million for Virgin to remain in Brisbane, then she closes border virgin sack staff then claims she would rather loose election than open the border virgin sack more staff....mostly in Brisbane money well spent again QLD.‘In the midst of the worst crisis’: up to 250 Virgin head office jobs face axehttps://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0e57965c4efc9bc466e8cec759d896c?width=650 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0e57965c4efc9bc466e8cec759d896c)Virgin Australia wide-body aircraft are seen grounded at the Brisbane Airport. Picture: Glenn Hunt

exclusiveImogen Reid (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Imogen+Reid)

Virgin Australia has warned its recovery plans have been “severely impacted” by Victoria’s COVID-19 and ongoing border closures, informing staff the airline was likely to make up to 250 head office positions redundant.

In a note to staff on Monday, Virgin chief executive Paul Scurrah said the aviation industry was “in the midst of the worst crisis” it had ever faced.

“Our cash management throughout this period is absolutely critical,” Mr Scurrah wrote.

“One of our largest costs is labour, and with much less transitionary work required as the administration process is coming to an end and without the revenue coming through the door, we simply cannot justify the number of team members who are currently stood up.”

The redundancies will be the second since the airline was purchased by private equity outfit Bain Capital after it fell into administration in April as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered airports and left planes stranded.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0b42a4e6a851ed56a4f0a00ad04ffbf8?width=320 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0b42a4e6a851ed56a4f0a00ad04ffbf8)Virgin chief executive Paul Scurrah at the company’s Southbank office. Picture: Tara CroserVirgin announced earlier this month it would make a third of its workforce — around 3000 people — redundant.

Mr Scurrah, who has remained the company’s chief executive through the Deloitte-run administration, said staff who had been stood down would likely remain so until March 2021, a position which would be reviewed in January.

‘Consultation will occur immediately for roles which are identified as no longer being required as a result of the smaller operation and reduced work,” Mr Scurrah wrote.

“We expect around 150 roles to be impacted in addition to the 250 head office roles that have recently been impacted within the operations division.”

But Virgin will also begin a comprehensive review of the way head office works, with Mr Scurrah suggesting it would be redesigned “to suit a smaller, simpler operation”.

“The reality is this will also have the regrettable impact of further job losses,” he wrote.

“I’m aware that for many of you it will feel like we have already done this … last year.

“However, the world and our business have significantly changed since then which must be addressed.”

Virgin last week permanently shut down its Tigerair budget brand after 13 years, although it will retain the air operator certificate so it can revive a low-cost carrier when the domestic travel market has recovered.

As part of Bain Capital’s plan, Virgin will simplify its fleet and largely operate Boeing 737s, removing ATRs, Boeing 777s, Airbus A330s and Airbus A320s.

Virgin’s larger rival, Qantas, has also made significant job cuts through the year. Most recently, it announced 2500 positions across Qantas and its Jetstar brand would be made redundant on top of 6000 jobs cut in June.

Qantas in August recorded a $2bn loss as the coronavirus pandemic pushed full-year revenue down by 21 per cent.

Qantas shares ended up three per cent on Monday at $3.94.

Bain Capital, which offered $3.5bn for Virgin, has had the backing of the Transport Workers Union after the private equity group gave commitments to keep the airline as a full-service carrier and not switch to a low-cost model.

Mr Scurrah told staff on Monday that it was “clear that the impacts of various government decisions to deal with COVID continue to subdue demand for flying”.

“With our current capacity sitting at around 10 per cent, which is supported by federal government subsidies to ensure some limited transportation infrastructure remains functional, the outlook has never been less certain.

“Regrettably, we must again take action to address the impact of this ongoing crisis on our business,” he said.
So,she has given then the $200m or was it part of a deal that didnt happen?
If it has in fact already happened,maybe she now needs to explain why it wasnt instead put into local business including tourism,im sure those business people would like to hear why they didnt get any.

[Stickshift3000]

The reason the international borders are closed is to avoid the arrival of millions of well heeled citizens of third world countries seeking an escape from their homeland covid epidemics.

That I understand and agree with.

But why stop Aussies leaving if they agree to quarantine on return? I'd be out of here quicker than anything if I could leave.

[KRviator]

That I understand and agree with.

But why stop Aussies leaving if they agree to quarantine on return? I'd be out of here quicker than anything if I could leave.In WA's case it is one of capacity. They testified in the Palmer trial than can manage 7 hotels associated with COVID quarantine. They currently have 6 operating. So long as they continue to decree everyone entering WA must go through the quarantine process, irrespective of their risk factors, that in turn limits the percentage available for international travellers.

[michigan j]

Then what do the 300 folk that are onshore meant to do?

Stats are only good if you understand a bit about them.

I do hope you will answer the 300 guys in a real bad time line position - I do not think they have any options but become illegal.

I know of only 2 cases that months ago got out and back in.

Many of the skilled visas were also granted long ago with PR and every right to enter.

Tourist visas (but that covers possibly many of Tom Hanks crew) is very low - I do not see the point of your post..

The point of my post? To inform, and not allow people to jump to shrill and false conclusions.

This data includes the numbers of incoming Australians and non-Australians during the month of August, and also where they are from, and their citizenship and visa status, and provides comparisons with previous time periods.

It doesn't discuss anything else, including those who are already in Australia and who hold a valid visa. I am sorry you read the data as a slur on visa holders who might have been here for some years. It reflects negatively on your ability to comprehend a simple presentation of very basic information. The data does not touch on Tom Hanks or anything else. There are many forms of permanent and temporary visas, and this data does not differentiate between those types.

As for the 300 non-Australians whose visa will shortly expire, they will have to contemplate either getting another visa to stay, or a visa extension, or alternatively either leaving or staying illegally in Australia. Whilst flights are still leaving, there is no excuse for a temporary visa holder to stay illegally in Australia, and doing so will generally reflect negatively on that person in any future visa decisions. Of course I am sorry they are in a bad situation, but the pandemic has not changed this equation. Discussions about whether non-Australians with no income, visa, health cover or access to other support should stay in Australia is not what this data is about. There has never been a prohibition on non-Australians leaving Australia.

Again, this data only discusses the numbers and characteristics of people traveling to Australia during August.

[neville_nobody]

If it has in fact already happened,maybe she now needs to explain why it wasnt instead put into local business including tourism,im sure those business people would like to hear why they didnt get any..

Because local business is not sexy and usually don't hired large unionised work forces.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Here's a statistic. No cases for 5 months but still in lockdown. Discuss.

Mildura (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/city-closer-to-adelaide-than-melbourne-locked-down-despite-zero-cases-for-five-months/news-story/7d9fd6dca14b62169d38a7f98e5ad5ff)

[Turnleft080]

Here's a statistic. No cases for 5 months but still in lockdown. Discuss.

Mildura (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/city-closer-to-adelaide-than-melbourne-locked-down-despite-zero-cases-for-five-months/news-story/7d9fd6dca14b62169d38a7f98e5ad5ff)

Well for starters, that 30,000 votes that won't be going to labor.
They won't forget this come election 2022.

[Ladloy]

Well for starters, that 30,000 votes that won't be going to labor.
They won't forget this come election 2022.
I hope that's sarcasm. 2022 in the media/election cycle is an eternity away.
Remember the labor and lib branch stacking? The sports rort? The water scandal which probably has implications in Mildura? What about Morrison going on a holiday at the peak of the bushfires?
The Murdoch narrative will have their say when we get there.

[michigan j]

The Murdoch narrative will have their say when we get there.

As TurnLeft says "that 30 000 votes not going to Labor"

[Maggie Island]

I hope that's sarcasm. 2022 in the media/election cycle is an eternity away.
Remember the labor and lib branch stacking? The sports rort? The water scandal which probably has implications in Mildura? What about Morrison going on a holiday at the peak of the bushfires?
The Murdoch narrative will have their say when we get there.

The Libs do have the option of calling it as early as Aug 21, and thats assuming theres no Double D trickery to make it earlier! Either way many commentators have touted the second half of 2021as the likely slot for the election.

[KRviator]

Calm down.That is a direct cut and paste from the ABS "Key Statistics"The other noteworthy thing about those statistics is the percentage of arrivals based on state when viewed against the actual percentage of the Australian population of the state. Ana-StayAway "I'll do anything to protect Queenslanders, even if it means not pulling our weight to make sure I get re-elected" is doing her thing. WA has, at least, stepped up a bit from the previous months, yet everyone is quite happy to lock out NSW residents, even though they are carrying nearly 2/3rds of international arrivals, with the attendant risks that entails...
% Arrivals / % Oz Population
NSW 62.6 / 31.9
WA 13.9 / 10.3
QLD 13.3 / 20.1
VIC 0.5 / 26.1
SA 7.3 / 6.9
NT 2.5 / 1
ACT 0 / 1.7
TAS 0 / 2.1

% Arrivals / % Oz Population
NSW 61.3 / 31.9
WA 15.9 / 10.3
QLD 16.2 / 20.1
VIC 0.2 / 26.1
SA 2.1 / 6.9
NT 4.3 / 1
ACT 0.1 / 1.7
TAS 0 / 2.1

[exfocx]

The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...


You love to quote numbers, yet you have shown a potential lack of understanding of the data / stats you quote. You still haven't responded to my request on your av life expectancy misunderstanding!

Back in late March WA had 164 icu beds, don't know if thats changed. What happens to the rest of the patients who need ICU beds if 124 are taken up by cv patients? Wasn't this the whole reason of preventing a large outbreak, to prevent the system from being overloaded, not just bed numbers, but staff as well?

Everyone seems to expect the Best Possible Outcome, economically and infection / deaths etc, that just isn't possible given that it appears to be a very difficult to model precisely.

[exfocx]

The other noteworthy thing about those statistics is the percentage of arrivals based on state when viewed against the actual percentage of the Australian population of the state. Ana-StayAway "I'll do anything to protect Queenslanders, even if it means not pulling our weight to make sure I get re-elected" is doing her thing. WA has, at least, stepped up a bit from the previous months, yet everyone is quite happy to lock out NSW residents, even though they are carrying nearly 2/3rds of international arrivals, with the attendant risks that entails...

Just so you understand, as Paul Bongiorno points out at the New Daily, international quarantine is a Federal responsibility.

[exfocx]

No actually I have not, I have heard it is way too early (a few years) to know that economic result.

Sorry Sir Bend alot, not totally correct! Yes, if you're considering what may transpire over the next 5 yrs, but the present data on deaths Vs economic damage as televised by Alan Kohler and others is that > deaths = > economic damage.

[slats11]

WA has about 500 ICU beds - public, private, plus surge capacity of 200 new beds (and 300 vents) which started to be added in March.

https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2020/03/WA-boosting-health-system-capacity-for-COVID-19-critical-care.aspx


That said, I understand the logistics of covering a large state, remote communities, and the difficulty getting clinical staff from interstate if WA gets swamped.

[Chronic Snoozer]

McGowan get help

:rolleyes: (https://www.watoday.com.au/national/wa-calls-for-commonwealth-help-as-perth-hotels-fill-up-with-quarantine-cases-20200915-p55vun.html)

[michigan j]

Next you'll tell me that the WA government used taxpayer money to assist the building of the Crown complex with 1900 Hotel rooms, but has run out of capacity to hold (checks notes) 525 people per week.
I guess those 525 people would generally represent about 250 rooms once you think that a lot would be in families.

But sure, time to open the prisons and detention centres I guess.

[Bend alot]

Sorry Sir Bend alot, not totally correct! Yes, if you're considering what may transpire over the next 5 yrs, but the present data on deaths Vs economic damage as televised by Alan Kohler and others is that > deaths = > economic damage.

The longer term economic result of countries actions to Covid-19 will take a few years - but if you want to say > (greater) deaths = > (greater) economic damage on present data = Sweden is the worst model of pretty much any nation on the globe.

I shall wait for more data, but I still think Sweden did pretty bad considering they had a pretty big "unofficial" lock-down.

[Turnleft080]

Well I watched Dan's presser today full of smirks and praises for regional Vic I'm a winer. It's all my doing.
Though when he spoke about Melbourne still got that couldn't give a rats attitude. Really emphasises the ring of steal
police state, a 14 day period of less than 50, then a 14 day period of 5. That's another 6 weeks of lockdown if that works.
The government is just a one man show. My way or the highway. Fear mongering at it's best.
As Sunfish said a control freak a pain inflicter. He won't lose the next election because he will walk and
take his pension. leave the economic destruction for someone else to fix.
I think of the Tenerife accident and he's got that similar attitude as the KLM captain.

[Ragnor]

SA want 14 days no community transmission, Queen P has been reported as following suit announcement to come later in the week. Say if NSW goes 14 days they open business and airlines are already behind as it will take a 2-3 weeks to advertise sell tickets etc. First day of interstate travel there is a community transmission in NSW, does Queen P slam the border shut and SA close up again?

[blubak]

Well I watched Dan's presser today full of smirks and praises for regional Vic I'm a winer. It's all my doing.
Though when he spoke about Melbourne still got that couldn't give a rats attitude. Really emphasises the ring of steal
police state, a 14 day period of less than 50, then a 14 day period of 5. That's another 6 weeks of lockdown if that works.
The government is just a one man show. My way or the highway. Fear mongering at it's best.
As Sunfish said a control freak a pain inflicter. He won't lose the next election because he will walk and
take his pension. leave the economic destruction for someone else to fix.
I think of the Tenerife accident and he's got that similar attitude as the KLM captain.
Yeh spot on,funny he hasnt mentioned he didnt put any of his so called security guards into hotels to enforce quarantine in regional victoria,his big f up in melbourne has caused all this but like you say he doesnt give a toss about melbourne now.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

A recent poll with 140,000 respondents by Channel 9 showed 71% of respondents in favour of the lockdown being extended. The vast majority of victorians don’t watch sky news and understand that opening up too quickly would simply trigger a third wave.

the same pole was latter hijacked by bots to flip the result (10,000 no votes from the same IP address being one example), leading to nine removing the pole.

[KRviator]

You love to quote numbers, yet you have shown a potential lack of understanding of the data / stats you quote. You still haven't responded to my request on your av life expectancy misunderstanding!Because the numbers are what they are. They don't lie. As for your fascination with my lack of reply, I hadn't bothered to reply because no matter the expected life expectancy when you attain 80 years of age, you are (typically) still retired, (typically) not contributing to the economy beyond your groceries and fuel purchases and arguing over whether you would expect to die at 86 or 96 or any particular age doesn't contribute to the issue whereby the average age of COVID deaths (in Australia) at the time of writing is 86 years old. Even if we accept the US data, it would mean an effective saving of what? 2,3, maybe 5 years at whatever the life-year-cost is, which renders your point essentially, meaningless in context.

Everyone seems to expect the Best Possible Outcome, economically and infection / deaths etc, that just isn't possible given that it appears to be a very difficult to model precisely.Everyone except the CHO's, who seem to be only focused exclusively on the worst possible outcomes. "What if it gets into WA, and what if there is an outbreak and what if that outbreak becomes uncontrolled then it could be catastrophic....yadda yadda."

Yes, if it met all those conditions, I agree. But the chances of that happening, with proper precautions taken, are slim. That has been found, legally, in the Palmer trial. Dual engine failures on a turbine twin, wile extremely rare, still happen, but with proper precautions they are allowed to fly several hours away, overwater even, from the nearest suitable diversion airport, even though a dual failure could still occur.

Just so you understand, as Paul Bongiorno points out at the New Daily, international quarantine is a Federal responsibility.It does not matter whose responsibility it is. Because, as above, the data doesn't lie. If you have nearly 2/3rds of international arrivals coming in via NSW, then you need more staff to manage those arrivals, and those additional staff have a higher chance of being infected with COVID and thus passing it to their close contacts. We've seen recent cases in the NSW Health System where ED staff have caught it, and they are arguably the most experienced front-line workers in the state when it comes to infection control.

If we accept the premise that it is a federal responsibility then the Federal Government owes a duty to the residents of NSW (and others where the %age is disproportionate) to hold the other states to account over their penalising those residents. It is all well and good for the Qld CHO to declare "We won't open the border until there is 28 days of no community transmission", but conventionally overlook the number of arrivals. Were NSW to outlaw international arrivals completely, like Tasmania has done, then sure, they could easily achieve that figure. But there's next to no possibility while there is chance of infection through the hotel quarantine program.

Qld has locked out ACT residents even though they have a better track record than Qld. "Oh, but they commute from outside the ACT into the ACT, and they could bring the Pestilence with them" says Dr Young. I invite you to look at the NSW COVID Map by postcode (https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-facts-about-covid-19#map-of-nsw-covid-19-cases-and-testing-by-postcode), scroll down to Canberra and select the recent button. No recent cases within cooee, yet they are still locked out of Qld. "Border closures are based on risk!" Pigs asre they are. As Chronic Snoozer posted above "It's risk avoidance not risk management. Like aviation, things would all be a lot safer if we just all stayed at home.". After-all, Qld has recent confirmed cases of COVID, we should lock down the state to make sure those AFL players don't catch it in their 5-star luxury quarantine hotel...

[Climb150]

The rest of the world will be on the other side and recovering while Australia is still hiding with all the doors and windows locked.

[Stickshift3000]

Yeh spot on,funny he hasnt mentioned he didnt put any of his so called security guards into hotels to enforce quarantine in regional victoria,his big f up in melbourne has caused all this but like you say he doesnt give a toss about melbourne now.

No hotels were used in regional Vic for quarantine; they were only used for international arrivals.

Actually, there was a hotel used in Portland for international ships at port. This hotel was guarded by prison & corrective services officers, as it was utilised after private security firms were shown the door.

[blubak]

No hotels were used in regional Vic for quarantine; they were only used for international arrivals.

Actually, there was a hotel used in Portland for international ships at port. This hotel was guarded by prison & corrective services officers, as it was utilised after private security firms were shown the door.
Thats what i said'he didnt put any in regional vic' & if he had he now wouldnt be able to bleat about how good regional vic is.
If he had used his supposed top class security system in regional vic they too would be suffering like we are due to his incompetence

[exfocx]

Because the numbers are what they are. They don't lie. As for your fascination with my lack of reply, I hadn't bothered to reply because no matter the expected life expectancy when you attain 80 years of age, you are (typically) still retired, (typically) not contributing to the economy beyond your groceries and fuel purchases and arguing over whether you would expect to die at 86 or 96 or any particular age doesn't contribute to the issue whereby the average age of COVID deaths (in Australia) at the time of writing is 86 years old. Even if we accept the US data, it would mean an effective saving of what? 2,3, maybe 5 years at whatever the life-year-cost is, which renders your point essentially, meaningless in context. Again your ignorance of 'average' is astounding. These people have paid their taxes and the fact they're no longer paying tax is irrelevant, that age group is the one that built this country suffering the effects of the depression, WW2 and fought in Korea, not whiney brats such as yourself. You are a narcissistic individual.

Everyone except the CHO's, who seem to be only focused exclusively on the worst possible outcomes. "What if it gets into WA, and what if there is an outbreak and what if that outbreak becomes uncontrolled then it could be catastrophic....yadda yadda." Again your ignorance is on display. The "what ifs" have been widely publicised and you still cannot fathom the outcome!

Yes, if it met all those conditions, I agree. But the chances of that happening, with proper precautions taken, are slim. Same again, you've already shown you have no understandingThat has been found, legally, in the Palmer trial. Again acting the Lawyer with no understanding of the law and likely misquoting because you've also shown you don't understand context, in whatever the situation is: medical, legal, statistical.Dual engine failures on a turbine twin, wile extremely rare, still happen, but with proper precautions they are allowed to fly several hours away, overwater even, from the nearest suitable diversion airport, even though a dual failure could still occur. Oh PLEASE, stick to choo choo trains. Talk about overreach!

It does not matter whose responsibility it is. Because, as above, the data doesn't lie. Again, pretending you understand data, you've already shown your ignorance there. If you have nearly 2/3rds of international arrivals coming in via NSW, then you need more staff to manage those arrivals, and those additional staff have a higher chance of being infected with COVID and thus passing it to their close contacts. We've seen recent cases in the NSW Health System where ED staff have caught it, and they are arguably the most experienced front-line workers in the state when it comes to infection control.

If we accept the premise that it is a federal responsibility then the Federal Government owes a duty to the residents of NSW (and others where the %age is disproportionate) to hold the other states to account over their penalising those residents. Showing your constitutional ignorance, again. It is all well and good for the Qld CHO to declare "We won't open the border until there is 28 days of no community transmission", but conventionally overlook the number of arrivals. Were NSW to outlaw international arrivals completely, like Tasmania has done, then sure, they could easily achieve that figure. But there's next to no possibility while there is chance of infection through the hotel quarantine program.

Qld has locked out ACT residents even though they have a better track record than Qld. "Oh, but they commute from outside the ACT into the ACT, and they could bring the Pestilence with them" says Dr Young. I invite you to look at the NSW COVID Map by postcode (https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-facts-about-covid-19#map-of-nsw-covid-19-cases-and-testing-by-postcode), scroll down to Canberra and select the recent button. No recent cases within cooee, yet they are still locked out of Qld. "Border closures are based on risk!" Pigs asre they are. You've already shown you have no understanding of basic stats, so I doubt you could quantify risk fullstop. As Chronic Snoozer posted above "It's risk avoidance not risk management. Like aviation, things would all be a lot safer if we just all stayed at home.". A meaningless statement. After-all, Qld has recent confirmed cases of COVID, we should lock down the state to make sure those AFL players don't catch it in their 5-star luxury quarantine hotel...

A lot of meaningless verbiage. You keep going on about "the data" but time and again you show all you can do is regurgitate "data" with no understanding. Basically you didn't respond because you didn't understand and you needed 5 days to think up a non response.

I'm fairly certain the QLD CHO has forgotten more about "data" than you have ever understood.

[currawong]

The numbers are trending well in VIC.

Regardless of what is said here, the rest of the nation IS wishing you all well and that the trend can be maintained.

Western Europe looks to be in for another hammering.

With luck and hard work, that can continue to be avoided here.

All the best, wherever you are.

[Chronic Snoozer]

I'm fairly certain the QLD CHO has forgotten more about "data" than you have ever understood.

Obviously not the amount of money the likes of Tom Hanks and the AFL plus hangers on bring in to Queensland coffers.

[Turnleft080]

The numbers are trending well in VIC.

Regardless of what is said here, the rest of the nation IS wishing you all well and that the trend can be maintained.

Western Europe looks to be in for another hammering.

With luck and hard work, that can continue to be avoided here.

All the best, wherever you are.

Thanks bro however western europe has an interesting trend this time round.
If you check UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and others even the USA on worldometers you find the cases are increasing dramatically
though deaths have pretty much flatlined. If the gap continues to increase between these two lines, the better. It means the virus is starting to wane
it gets weaker when it effects more. Just how viruses were meant to work.
The most ironic thing about this virus is it will eventually die itself out. When that happens the vaccine will be just about ready.
If the whole world let it rip and you protect the elderly covid would of finished 2 months ago.
If you lockdown the whole world then you prolong the virus to die out. ie flatten the curve.
End of the day same deaths.

[Slezy9]

It means the virus is starting to wane
it gets weaker when it effects more. Just how viruses were meant to work.

So how come HIV/ AIDS hasn’t died out? Or the seasonal flu? They are both viruses.

Meant to work according to who?

[Turnleft080]

So how come HIV/ AIDS hasn’t died out? Or the seasonal flu? They are both viruses.

Meant to work according to who?

Hiv/aids is a blood disease. Spread by infected needles. You don't breath that in.
Seasonal flu does die out though it mutates into another strain the following year.

[Slezy9]

Hiv/aids is a blood disease. Spread by infected needles. You don't breath that in.
Seasonal flu does die out though it mutates into another strain the following year.

Do you have any peer reviewed papers to back up your claim that “viruses just die out”?

[Ragnor]

Spread by infected needles.

Maybe go back to med school also. Few other ways that it gets transmitted

[Turnleft080]

Do you have any peer reviewed papers to back up your claim that “viruses just die out”?

Their is stuff in the Lancet though I would need to dig them up. Some basic history can back it up though.
Right now their is no SARS, MERS, SWINE, Spanish and if you want to go back Bubonic plague. No vaccines for any of them.
Viruses attack people with low immune systems i.e. (comorbid, age care) and when their are no more low immune systems to effect
the disease starts to fall down the graph. It weakens it fades and dies out. If it didn't, then all those diseases would still be around today.

[neville_nobody]

So how come HIV/ AIDS hasn’t died out? Or the seasonal flu? They are both viruses

Aids will die if it is exposed to air. It can only be transmitted by fluid/blood to blood contact. Which only leaves you a few options of transmission.

[exfocx]

Their is stuff in the Lancet though I would need to dig them up. Some basic history can back it up though.
Right now their is no SARS, MERS, SWINE, Spanish and if you want to go back Bubonic plague. No vaccines for any of them.
Viruses attack people with low immune systems i.e. (comorbid, age care) and when their are no more low immune systems to effect
the disease starts to fall down the graph. It weakens it fades and dies out. If it didn't, then all those diseases would still be around today.
Really? Yeah nah. Oh and BTW, Bubonic Plague is STILL around: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/05/07/721167330/bubonic-plague-strikes-in-mongolia-why-is-it-still-a-threat
People are still dying from it on a yearly basis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
"The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic) caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1). Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people–about a third of the world's population at the time–in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics) in human history." So a third of the world's pop was immune compromised?

"Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, with a higher survival rate for those in between, but the Spanish flu pandemic resulted in a higher than expected mortality rate for young adults" But TL080 said a virus only goes after immune impaired people.

"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm), which ravages the stronger immune system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system) of young adults.[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTEBarry2004b-6) Oh, that doesn't coincide with your statement?

Btw, viruses don't die because they're not alive to start with, they replicate themselves using a hosts cells, so If you don't know the very basics you really shouldn't comment, on anything to do with CV or viruses in general because you don't know what you are talking about. Just a simple google and you could have been better informed but you're not, so what does that say about your other posts on this and how it should be handled?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus

.

[Chronic Snoozer]

And another thing. Influenza viruses are not corona viruses. Different viruses (Virii?) produces different results.

[KRviator]

exfocx for god's sake man, learn BBCode and format your posts properly...:ugh:

[exfocx]

exfocx for god's sake man, learn BBCode and format your posts properly...:ugh:

They appear pretty easy to read on my computer.

lololol You should already have a headache so just stop it.

[slats11]

https://victimsofcommunism.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VOC_Coronavirus-Cover-Up—A-Timeline.pdf

interesting timeline of the first few months of this pandemic.

[exfocx]

https://victimsofcommunism.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VOC_Coronavirus-Cover-Up—A-Timeline.pdf

interesting timeline of the first few months of this pandemic.

Seriously? US propaganda from a org set up by an act of congress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victims_of_Communism_Memorial_Foundation

[Turnleft080]

In Mongolia, a couple died of bubonic plague on May 1 after reportedly hunting marmots, large rodents that can harbor
the bacterium that causes the disease, and eating the animal's raw meat and kidneys – which some Mongolians believe is good for their health.
Exfocx sounds appetising. Hmm I wonder if the WHO approve of this new Mongolian franchise. Do you want chips with that.

Spanish Flu (Not a Covid) your correct is a H1 N1 strain caused by thousands of soldiers having poor hygiene and eating poorly during the war in freezing cold conditions. Yeah, that would bring a flu on. No problem.
When the war finished they transported the strain everywhere.
"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm), which ravages the stronger immune system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system) of young adults.[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTEBarry2004b-6) Oh, that doesn't coincide with your statement?
Note the word "POSSIBLE". So there not really sure. Leave that at that. Oh! a lot of evidence around that good old Vit D can protect you from a cytokine storm. I reckon the soldiers were very very D deficient and
when that happens your susceptible to anything.

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion.

[dr dre]

https://victimsofcommunism.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VOC_Coronavirus-Cover-Up—A-Timeline.pdf

interesting timeline of the first few months of this pandemic.

A debunking (at Least from the WHO perspective):

World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?

[Bend alot]

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion.


Sort of need some even shytty backyard fools, half arsed 3 year olds paper to back your comment.

[slats11]

Sure. But play the ball - not the man

Have a look at this

WHO SITREP giving official Chinese timeline. China fessed up that it was a coronavirus on 7 January.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4

Except this
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

Look at table of results
So China obtained CV from a patient at least as early as 26 December. Now even if the PCR was negative as new virus (plausible), I’ll bet both nuts they would have looked at those samples under an electron microscope. They would have seen CV (which were named for their distinct appearance under EM). So they knew they had a CV problem around December 26.

[Cafe City]

A debunking (at Least from the WHO perspective):

World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy? (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qf_7nZdIYoI)

Ever the apologist it seems dr dre.

I’m not going to quibble over whether it was the 31st Dec or a day or so later but just as with SARS, we in HK began to see a few column centimetres appearing beyond page 3 of the local press saying there were unusual respiratory cases appearing on the Mainland.

Again as with SARS, the news slowly gained more coverage and got closer to the front page of the papers. It was early January and locals started to don masks more frequently.
Mid January approached and concerns were so high that I also decided it might be the right thing to wear a mask at work to respect my local colleagues.

Being a frequent flyer, I was somewhat surprised to see that QANTAS cabin crews seemed oblivious to the number of pax getting on their flights wearing masks. The CX girls all knew something was up and they were already wearing masks very early on. Meanwhile, despite the Oz govt saying they were onto it early, I probably did 4 or 5 weekly trips into Australia , along with hundreds of Mainlanders who transited thru HK before there was even a hint of concern shown. I recall even having to ask somebody on arrival where they wanted me to put my health declaration and they basically pointed to a table where I should toss it.

By the 3rd week of January it was all but confirmed that something seriously wrong was occurring in Wuhan and locals were calling on the HK Govt to close the border with the Mainland.
With Lunar New Year approaching on the 25th and Mainlanders beginning their ritual mass exodus, the Central Govt did NOTHING to prevent at least 5 million travellers from leaving the region to other parts of the world.

I don’t give a $hit what your vlogger says in his typical supercilious manner (heard many of his before on other topics) , the fact is the Central Govt knew damn well that there was something happening but they were too afraid to tell 1.3 billion people they couldn’t celebrate Lunar New Year as normal.

I’m not saying it definitely originated there but the rest of the World is now paying for their inaction.
The resemblance between the handling of this and Chernobyl is striking for exactly the same reasons.

[Cafe City]

Yes you responded to me dr dre then quickly withdrew it.
I reiterate, I said I did not assert that Wuhan was ground zero.
The question is not whether there were some cases elsewhere in December.

I have given you an unembellished account of what the general public were aware of in HK in very early January, with the timing based on messages I sent back to my family at the time.
It is a normal phenomena that over 100 million Chinese will travel (both internally and internationally) in the days leading up to and during the Lunar New Year holiday period to reduce peak loading on transportation.
The outbreak had been confirmed on State media yet still nothing was done to contain at least 5 million travelers from the mid-western region until after the LNY was over. Then suddenly the crackdown began.

Anything earlier would have been severe loss of face.... (yes, that''s an embellishment)

[blubak]

The numbers are trending well in VIC.

Regardless of what is said here, the rest of the nation IS wishing you all well and that the trend can be maintained.

Western Europe looks to be in for another hammering.

With luck and hard work, that can continue to be avoided here.

All the best, wherever you are.
Thanks for your wishes.
Few interesting points this morning.
28 new cases & 8 deaths
CHO Brett Sutton says he knew nothing of security guards being used in hotels!
Saw queen P on tv in qld yesterday bleating on about some new fire fighting aircraft,WOW ,what a difference 1 will make!
Re the deaths,also heard year to date compared to last year,there were more deaths in aged care last year compared to 2020.

[Joker89]

Re the deaths,also heard year to date compared to last year,there were more deaths in aged care last year compared to 2020.

I have no doubt you are right, the only thing this thread proves is everyone has their own mind made up. Experts, statistics, common sense, all have no impact on anyone’s point of view.

Just did some traveling through Europe. Loads were good. Some of the airports reasonnably busy. Life goes on in some parts of the globe.

[Climb150]

Its hard to make up your mind when the only thing the media is interested in is convincing everyone that the world is about to end and unless we all lock ourselves away for the next 2 years everyone will die of CoVID 19.

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.

[brokenagain]

Australia being described as the nanny state has never been truer than now. Governments should be focusing on risk management rather than risk elimination.

[blubak]

Its hard to make up your mind when the only thing the media is interested in is convincing everyone that the world is about to end and unless we all lock ourselves away for the next 2 years everyone will die of CoVID 19.

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.
Some of these experts are the public who have suddenly decided they should call up radio stations & talk about crap.
Heard 1 woman yesterday whinging how there were too many kids playing at the local park,people like her need to go home & lock themselves away & leave the rest of us to get on with our lives,do gooders everywhere.

[clark y]

Everyone is frustrated, regardless of opinions.


Question time especially for Victorians. What is the significance of the "roadmap" to the next stage having a 14 day average of between 30-50 cases per day? Why not just 30 case average or 50 case average?

[dr dre]

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.

You’re leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didn’t take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Saw queen P on tv in qld yesterday bleating on about some new fire fighting aircraft,WOW ,what a difference 1 will make!


That'll be a QLD fire fighting aircraft to fight QLD fires no doubt.

[Stickshift3000]

Question time especially for Victorians. What is the significance of the "roadmap" to the next stage having a 14 day average of between 30-50 cases per day? Why not just 30 case average or 50 case average?

Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.

[exfocx]

In Mongolia, a couple died of bubonic plague on May 1 after reportedly hunting marmots, large rodents that can harbor
the bacterium that causes the disease, and eating the animal's raw meat and kidneys – which some Mongolians believe is good for their health.
Exfocx sounds appetising. Hmm I wonder if the WHO approve of this new Mongolian franchise. Do you want chips with that. you said that the BP was no longer around, that it was DEAD!

Spanish Flu (Not a Covid) your correct is a H1 N1 strain caused by thousands of soldiers having poor hygiene and eating poorly during the war in freezing cold conditions. Yeah, that would bring a flu on. No problem. It wasn't caused by what you claim. "The war may also have reduced people's resistance to the virus. Some speculate the soldiers' immune systems were weakened by malnourishment, as well as the stresses of combat and chemical attacks, increasing their susceptibility." REDUCED their resistance!
When the war finished they transported the strain everywhere. what, just like cv! Yeah, mass transportation.
"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm), which ravages the stronger immune system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system) of young adults.[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#cite_note-FOOTNOTEBarry2004b-6) Oh, that doesn't coincide with your statement?
Note the word "POSSIBLE". So there not really sure. Leave that at that. Oh! a lot of evidence around that good old Vit D can protect you from a cytokine storm. I reckon the soldiers were very very D deficient and when that happens your susceptible to anything. Then what caused otherwise healthy people to die, people with no immune issues?

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open. where did you get this idea from. CV can survive on the surface of different materials from hrs up 3 days.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors. not for the reasons you give and it depends on the density of people, sports event and your claim is rubbish.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion There is no evidence AT ALL that supports that!. ***************

[Climb150]

You’re leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didn’t take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.
Are these the experts that said without measures CoVID would kill 2 million in the USA but with containment it would only be 1 million? Well how many have died so far is 200,000. That's with your so called half assed approach.

[exfocx]

You’re leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didn’t take any precautions..................................

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.


Exactly! Everyone who argues the point always seem to conveniently leave this out.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.

You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

[slats11]

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.

True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.

[exfocx]

True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.

So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed. I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.

Now, you say the most honest data is totally deaths etc etc etc. And your public health credentials in data analysis is what again? I'm pretty certain that public health officials have been doing this for a bit longer than anyone on here.

[slats11]

So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?
No. I am saying there is very little attention given to the cause of death in nursing homes. It took a while before Italy recognised the scale of COVID deaths in the nursing homes - everyone was focussed on hospitals.

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed.
It is widely accepted we have not diagnosed most COVID infections in Australia. Estimates vary between 70,000 to 500,000 total infections. Take your pick. And that is for a disease with unprecedented effort and expense directed at testing.

I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.
Wrong
I don't have to talk to a doctor - I look after patients in nursing homes. I tell the relatives that 'flu was a likely / possible cause of death, but could also have been aspiration, heart attack, stroke, pulmonary embolism - and that I can't be sure without testing.

Official 'flu data for Australia only counts lab confirmed cases. Again, this does not happen in nursing homes.

Have you ever previously seen teams of clinicians swabbing everyone in nursing homes? No, nor have I.

30+ years as a clinician, with some post-grad training in public health

[Chronic Snoozer]

So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed. I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.

Now, you say the most honest data is totally deaths etc etc etc. And your public health credentials in data analysis is what again? I'm pretty certain that public health officials have been doing this for a bit longer than anyone on here.

Are you chaps sure you aren't confusing influenza with pneumonia?

[601]

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.
And the reason why the "huge death predictions" did not come true are?

[LapSap]

You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

Get a grip...

[Turnleft080]

You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

Thank god for that, I thought it was something serious like a pimple on the nose. I'm sure you will survive. Give it a squeeze lets see what happens tomorrow.
Next patient please.

[Square Bear]

Are you chaps sure you aren't confusing influenza with pneumonia?

Found some pneumonia figures for 2017....4269 pneumonia related deaths making it the 9th leading cause of deaths in Australia for that year.

To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.

Just saying,......

[BuzzBox]

To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.
Just saying,......

Would you care to estimate how many COVID deaths we would have had if the Federal & State governments had not taken action?

[Square Bear]

BuzzBox,
not against many of the precautions that the various Governments have taken at all, and in no way a denier....just believe some of the internal Border “closures” and some of the restrictions are over the top and seem simply hardwired to the “statement” that the restrictions are there for the health of that particular States population. .

Take the NT, “closed” borders.....,until the election was over that is. Queensland has an election coming up so easier to hide behind the banner of keeping you safe, magically the $110 Billion State Debt is not an issue and the State Borders open once that election is over.

And what gets me, how can each State have a Chief Medical Officer, the Commonwealth having one as well and they all come up with different restrictions about the same Covid, not like its a Qld Covid vs a NSW Covid vs a WA Covid etc etc.

Sure, by all means the Covid pandemic must be taken seriously, but how about looking at other causes of death at the same time and consider all the issues.

And as I said.....Just saying and ......just having a viewpoint.

[slats11]

This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/health/flu-australia-america.amp.html

So we don’t really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness don’t get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We don’t know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.

[Bend alot]

This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/health/flu-australia-america.amp.html

So we don’t really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness don’t get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We don’t know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.
But for months many MANY tests have been taken with or without symptoms - it does not seem to be floating around in the back ground unnoticed. Certainly not in the estimated numbers you gave since we have taken around 7,200,000 tests to date = to around 27,000 positive cases.

Given lots of work places and sports groups have had mandatory testing since about the start - little to no (not aware of a single one) random cases have popped up.

But that is just my reasoning for not believing the estimates.

[Stickshift3000]

Get a grip...

I assumed Chronic Snoozer's comments were sarcastic ... at least I bloody hope so!

[Chronic Snoozer]

Get a grip...

"Lighten up, Francis"

[slats11]

The data from multiple serosurveys around the world have shown that anything up to 20% of a population have antibodies (and hence their immune system has been challenged by the virus). Places like NYC and Northern Italy have antibody rates of this level. In both cases, that was WAY in excess of their positive swab test rate.

Other places have lower numbers, but same pattern with antibody rates consistently >> swab rates.

Part of the explanation is the swab is not that sensitive. Within the first few days of exposure to the virus, the swab will usually be negative - even in people who will become infected. In the first few days after exposure and before symptoms, 70-80% of swabs will be negative.

Understand that most testing is in this group - people who were at a hotel or whatever 2 nights ago. 80% of people who become infected may well be negative that early. But finding 20% is useful from a public health perspective as it may allow you to get R0 from 1.2 to 0.95 or whatever. If you do the public health swabs at 6-7 days after exposure, most of them will be positive, but by then these people will have infected others. So the swabs will be more accurate, but too late to help.

Same at the other end. The swab becomes negative again about 2 weeks after exposure. It is only a short window of 7 -10 days or so when the swab is likely to be positive.

So understand that the number of positive swabs has only a very lose association with what is happening in the community.


Graph 1 - different tests over time
Exposed at week - 1
Symptom onset at week 0 (7 days post-exposure)
Nasal PCR swab is blue line. Goes up a few days after exposure, peaks 1-2 days after symptoms, and is gone in a couple of weeks.
Green is IgG antibody. Later to rise, but stays up.
Over time, you will find more people with antibodies than ever had a positive swab - either they were not swabbed, or you missed the 2 week window.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1396x822/screen_shot_2020_09_18_at_02_18_43_3b70c61fbc9086e9acd4deb41 cbcf4e9c7f16827.png

Graph 2 (top) - sensitivity of PCR over time
x axis = days since exposure
vertical dashed line = day 5 when symptoms usually start
y axis = probability nasal PCR will be NEGATIVE in a person who definitely has (or will get) COVID.
So guaranteed to miss day 0 and 1.
Maybe a few positive day 2 and a few more day 3
Day 4 may be positive in 1/3
By day 5, positive in greater than 50%

Most swabs done have been by public health on days 2-3.
Public health isn't your doctor trying to tell if you are going to get sick
Public health isn't primarily about capturing the most complete data - if so would swab days 6-7
Public health is trying to identify and stop chains of future transmission before they are established. You develop symptoms on day 5, and peak infectivity is earlier at day 4 (highly unusual - whether by accident or design, this virus is a bastard to track and contain). Allowing 24 hours to perform test and notify positive, that means you need to swab around day 2-3, when the test is poor. But you will find a few positives, and will find them in time to stop them infecting others. By day 7-8, you can find most of them - but after they have infected other people.

If you have R0 a bit above 1.0, finding 20% of future infectious people and isolating them may be enough to drive R0 below 1.0.

So that is how public health and PCR tests work.
Can you use this data to go back and say how many infections there have been in your community? No. Absolutely not.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1288x718/screen_shot_2020_09_18_at_02_18_32_0a845511a8c0e68c1af589a0c 4691029a4c962fb.png

[Turnleft080]

1 hr 7 min agoWorld Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across EuropeFrom CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

[Australopithecus]

1 hr 7 min agoWorld Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across EuropeFrom CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

Because deaths lag cases, as you should well know by now. Of course the northern autumn/winter period has been predicted to be worse than the summer for obvious reasons. Regarding Vitamin D: some races do not react to sunlight the same as most caucasian people so supplements are needed. Vitamin D supplements are also not known to cause melanoma.

[currawong]

1 hr 7 min agoWorld Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across EuropeFrom CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.

[dr dre]

Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.

Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.

[Bend alot]

They have changed the causes.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

[currawong]

Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.

Generally I agree, but for different reasons.

During the earlier peak, there was a bias towards only testing the sickest, due to test kit availability.

Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.

All down to test availability.

Respiratory viruses tend to follow cold weather patterns of circulation, putting Australia in a good position right now.

Northern hemisphere? Not so much.

[dr dre]

Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.

Even less, looking at the France and Germany figures of infections 14 days ago to deaths today the CFR was 0.7 and 0.5%.

Average influenza CFR? I’ve seen 0.1-0.6%?

[currawong]

Yes, as more info comes to hand , the more we know.

Deaths are perhaps not all the info we need.

For example, UK covid hospital admissions have trebled in the last fortnight.

One would hope their rate of survival will be a lot better than those admitted three or so months ago.

[Joker89]

They have changed the causes.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0

[currawong]

useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0

Your table only shows Australia.:rolleyes:

Here is a more complete picture, 12 months, global.

Current 9 month numbers place it about 11th in a 12 month table. (2017 data)

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause

[Bend alot]

useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0
But shows what is below!

No known big ticket items below it, only stubbed toe type stuff.

But only about 9 months in, it out does road deaths!

[Joker89]

But shows what is below!

No known big ticket items below it, only stubbed toe type stuff.

But only about 9 months in, it out does road deaths!

let’s ban cars then, as the human race really needs to make sure people stop dying so much

[Bend alot]

let’s ban cars then, as the human race really needs to make sure people stop dying so much
I do not advocate banning anything - even seat belt wearing or helmet wearing.

They may slightly affect the death toll - but not really sure!

[Section28- BE]

Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-20/nsw-coronavirus-confirmed-case-drove-taxis-while-infectious/12682464

Article Quote/Extract here:
Ms Berejiklian confirmed two new cases of coronavirus on Sunday, one in hotel quarantine.

The other was a Sydney taxi driver who tested positive for coronavirus after working eight days while infectious and visiting several venues in Sydney and on the South Coast.

NSW Health said the confirmed coronavirus case drove in western and south-west Sydney on September 8-10 and 14-18.

People who rode in taxis in Moorebank, Bankstown, Chipping Norton, Liverpool, Lidcombe, Warwick Farm and Milperra may have been affected...........

rgds
S28- BE

[Turnleft080]

A Sydney taxi driver. Lucky he didn't come across VicPol. He would of been rammed, pulled out, masked, handcuffed, kicked in the head, trialled, fined,
then we will ask some questions.

[slats11]

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/china-covid-lockdown-propaganda
More evidence of highly orchestrated social media reporting from China. So orchestrated it really has to be state sponsored.

China spent a lot of time trying to control the global narrative. Pity they didn’t spend as much time trying to find the origin and patient zero. But then, they may already have known.

[clark y]

Does anybody know what is specifically meant by the term "reclassified" as stated almost daily with Victoria's Covid numbers? On a daily basis the total number and deaths are realeased and we are told to wait for further info. The media jumps on this. When the press conference occurs, the breakdown is given and it is extremely common for a portion of the total to be reclassified. The adjusted total which is usually lower is ignored.
Example: 20 Sept figures. Total 14 cases. 6 reclassified. Therefore there's was actually only 8 cases.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

Also, what is the relevance of the following if you actually only have 8 cases?

Within Victoria, 12 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 2 are under investigation.


Just trying to understand what is causing us so much turmoil.

[C441]

In relation to the title of this thread, has anyone received an explanation as to why positive cases can self isolate at home here in Queensland (and probably elsewhere) but someone returning from overseas who has a reasonable likelihood of not carrying Covid, has to go into hotel quarantine at their own expense?

[blubak]

In relation to the title of this thread, has anyone received an explanation as to why positive cases can self isolate at home here in Queensland (and probably elsewhere) but someone returning from overseas who has a reasonable likelihood of not carrying Covid, has to go into hotel quarantine at their own expense?
I thought the people returning from overseas were high risk,isnt that how the hotel quarantine saga erupted in victoria.
I agree people self isolating at home could be an issue but right now we dont want any overseas arrivals in victoria,we want out of this & the overseas arrivals will have to go somewhere else & abide the rules in place.

[Bend alot]

In relation to the title of this thread, has anyone received an explanation as to why positive cases can self isolate at home here in Queensland (and probably elsewhere) but someone returning from overseas who has a reasonable likelihood of not carrying Covid, has to go into hotel quarantine at their own expense?
I know in QLD positive cases are required to self isolate - to make sure they do guys in uniform are watching (army/army reserve).

As for overseas arrivals, unlike a known positive they could be asymptomatic. By the time a QLD resident got tested (isolate till result) they would generally have already have spread it as much as they would have anyway.

[C441]

I thought the people returning from overseas were high risk,isnt that how the hotel quarantine saga erupted in victoria.
It erupted because, despite being in a quarantine hotel, they were not self-isolating. If they were, the virus could have been contained largely to that group.

As for overseas arrivals, unlike a known positive they could be asymptomatic.
So could anyone who came in contact with those people who contracted the virus in the southern and western suburbs of Brisbane a few weeks ago. How is that different to someone returning from overseas and going into required self-isolation at a venue of their choice, as was the case with the Qld positives? The Queensland positives were required to enter self-isolation, at home in most cases I'm sure, but the returning citizens must go to a hotel whether they're positive or not. Even if they were all positive on returning to Australia, why can one group of positives self-isolate at home and another have to fork out $3000 to stay in a hotel if they have a suitable place to self-isolate?

To put it simply. I was at far greater risk of contracting Covid had I gone to Indooroopilly Westfields in the days after the first few western suburbs positives were announced than I was had my next door neighbour flown home from Europe and gone straight into isolation in her home for 14 days - even if she was positive.

[KRviator]

How is that different to someone returning from overseas and going into required self-isolation at a venue of their choice, as was the case with the Qld positives? The Queensland positives were required to enter self-isolation, at home in most cases I'm sure, but the returning citizens must go to a hotel whether they're positive or not. Even if they were all positive on returning to Australia, why can one group of positives self-isolate at home and another have to fork out $3000 to stay in a hotel if they have a suitable place to self-isolate?Because those who are isolating at home are Queensland residents who vote. Not everyone isolating in a hotel is a Queensland resident....Or is that too cynical? :bored:

[Section28- BE]

Also, what is the relevance of the following if you actually only have 8 cases?

Within Victoria, 12 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 2 are under investigation.


Just trying to understand what is causing us so much turmoil.

Are those 2x- potential new 'Community Transmissions' - that can't be accounted back to a known source and then need to be tracked down/quantified????

rgds
S28- BE

[Bend alot]

So could anyone who came in contact with those people who contracted the virus in the southern and western suburbs of Brisbane a few weeks ago. How is that different to someone returning from overseas and going into required self-isolation at a venue of their choice, as was the case with the Qld positives?




Just most of Queensland is COVID 19 free, you have/had a very very slim chance of coming into contact with someone infected.

Coming from overseas, Victoria, NSW or ACT increases the chance of contact with an infected person (NSW and ACT due to Victorians jumping open borders to get to QLD).

Self isolation of people (with unknown status or no symptoms) has not been very successful (up to 30% were not at home), I expect that is because they take it less seriously. I also expect actually getting a positive result would give most a reality check, and they would then be happy to correctly self isolate.

The shear numbers of people from overseas entering each week would exceed the man power required to correctly monitor them all, so containment is the only viable option.

[clark y]

Section28- BE,
I have no idea. I just know that certain information is hard to find. Victoria today has been reported as total of 11, reduced by 2 (reclassified from August) gives a total of 9 news cases. Best since mid June. Hope the numbers stay down.

Clark y.

[C441]

Self isolation of people (with unknown status or no symptoms) has not been very successful (up to 30% were not at home), I expect that is because they take it less seriously. I also expect actually getting a positive result would give most a reality check, and they would then be happy to correctly self isolate.
Are you sure they are not the figures from Victoria for those who had tested positive but had not met their self-isolation obligations? As most if not all (non-celebrity or sportspeople) international arrivals in most states have had to quarantine in hotels, I would suggest your latter suggestion that 30% hadn't met their self-isolation requirements, comes from the very same group you suggest would correctly self-isolate knowing they're positive. You don't think those becoming desperate to return home wouldn't be the most likely not to jeopardise their quarantine and risk hefty fines if they didn't follow the quarantine rules?

Just some consistency both within the States and federally would be nice. At the moment all we have is a totally inconsistent set of rules that are driven by political expediency and a desire not to lose face by admitting that some earlier decisions had been a little over the top.

[currawong]

Mods - not sure if this is ok, but exceptional times.

Might not suit everybody, might help some.

Might even need its own thread.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/353733222469486/

[Bend alot]

Are you sure they are not the figures from Victoria for those who had tested positive but had not met their self-isolation obligations? As most if not all (non-celebrity or sportspeople) international arrivals in most states have had to quarantine in hotels, I would suggest your latter suggestion that 30% hadn't met their self-isolation requirements, comes from the very same group you suggest would correctly self-isolate knowing they're positive. You don't think those becoming desperate to return home wouldn't be the most likely not to jeopardise their quarantine and risk hefty fines if they didn't follow the quarantine rules?

Just some consistency both within the States and federally would be nice. At the moment all we have is a totally inconsistent set of rules that are driven by political expediency and a desire not to lose face by admitting that some earlier decisions had been a little over the top.
I would suggest, what I said in my previous post.

Queensland also had issues with self isolation.

More than 200 people who were meant to be isolating at home under strict coronavirus quarantine laws in Queensland are missing.

Since mid-April more than 2,000 compliance checks have been conducted by the COVID-19 taskforce, with officers uncovering almost 400 people who were not where they were supposed to be.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-22/200-people-missing-from-coronavirus-quarantine-in-queensland/12472332

[C441]

But they not people returning from overseas. They are those who had tested positive or were known contacts of those who had, not inbound travellers. You suggested they're the most likely to adhere to the rules; evidently not it would seem.

So again, why are overseas arrivals required to isolate in hotels when known positive cases and their contacts don't?

Anyway, I've got as much chance of getting a logical answer here as I did when I asked my State and Federal members the same question…...:rolleyes: