All borders to reopen. [Archive] - Page 12

De_flieger

4th Jan 2021, 04:00

Unacceptable to whom exactly?? To the elderly, maybe. For a couple of teenagers or children I would doubt it. But that's OK we'll blown up the economy, bankrupt the state, indebted the younger generation, take away their freedoms just so you can 'feel safe'.

If it's unacceptable to you personally that's fine you can stay home, but we shouldn't be destroying the country just because some 60 year old+ folks are a bit rattled. It is complete madness.

Last week NSW had 51 cases out of a population of 5 million people. And we have gone and blown the whole country up.

I'm not agreeing with Sunfish here, don't see this response as an endorsement of his approach or post, but given how infectious coronavirus is, without prompt action it could rapidly spread. Or we could take the US approach, let everyone decide individually what they are prepared to do or not do, and watch while coronavirus spreads. Then we get to see things average out a bit more across the community.

In Australia we have had policies and actions that have led to a couple of severe outbreaks spread between nursing homes, so the vast majority of deaths have been in the 70+ age group in those nursing homes. As the disease spreads more widely through the community we will get to see the toll when there is broad community spread. In the US, that has meant that approximately 1 in 6 of their recorded deaths have been in the 50-64 age bracket (not that if you are in that age bracket, you have a one in 6 chance of dying), with only(!) approximately 48,000 deaths in the 50-64 age bracket. Give or take a couple of thousand. So this idea that states are only acting to stop a bunch of frail elderly people who would likely die in the next strong breeze is a bit misleading - and that is only looking at the deaths, whereas we know a certain proportion of covid sufferers will go on to experience long term side effects.

SOPS

4th Jan 2021, 04:13

Sounds very much like Queensland is preparing to close their border again.

De_flieger

4th Jan 2021, 04:20

And if you want to quote "science", it has always been axiomatic that in the case of illness, first the symptoms are carefully diagnosed then, and only then is a test made to confirm the symptoms. Here we are reversing things and testing healthy individuals with zero symptoms. New science? Or witchcraft?

What on earth?? You've never had to pee into a cup during a medical exam to see if you're developing diabetes? Never had an HIV screen before joining the military or precautionary tests before starting healthcare jobs? Never seen or had a heel pinprick as an infant a couple of days after you were born when they ran a screen to test for a bunch of genetic or metabolic disorders? They're all cases where apparently healthy asymptomatic individuals get tested, virtually every infant born gets a few tests run on them and have done for decades. This isn't something new or witchcraft.

FightDeck

4th Jan 2021, 05:29

Border closures obviously poll very well.So expect state borders to remain closed for sometime.Also expect them to slam shut at any outbreak of COVID no matter how small.Until a vaccine arrives and people have had the chance to get vaccinated I can’t see this ending.What people think of tests or science really doesn’t matter.Border closures are a success with voters.

knobbycobby

4th Jan 2021, 05:34

Given so many people have been caught out by borders closing at such short notice, I would certainly be reluctant to travel domestically.
Domestic demand is going to fall off a cliff. Far too risky.

Ragnor

4th Jan 2021, 05:40

Government will have every Australian willing to have the vaccination all done by October, hopefully then it will be unrestricted like the old days. If you don’t choose to have it your choice just be prepared not to be able to travel.

DanV2

4th Jan 2021, 05:40

Sounds very much like Queensland is preparing to close their border again.

Already closed to greater sydney, although won't be surprised if this extends to regional NSW + Victoria

In other news, WA's McGowan has publicly stated that won't hesitate to put up hard borders (again) to ALL STATES at a moments notice if need be.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/wa-may-shut-all-borders-if-virus-spreads-c-1889339https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/wa-may-shut-all-borders-if-virus-spreads-c-1889339

Sunfish

4th Jan 2021, 05:50

My attitude has nothing to do with age. It has everything to do with Murphy's law which, for the sake of airmanship, everyone should study. Those 60,000 Victorians have just had a practical demonstration of Murphy. So have my friends kids ( the miners) they decided to take a chance on staying a few more days after Christmas in Victoria and now have 14 days quarantine when they get back to Queensland.

To Bodie I say, if you expect life to be fair, predictable and operate in a linear fashion like a TV series, then you are in for a world of hurt.

As for Covid19, the danger comes not from lethality but logistics. It has the capability to overwhelm the healthcare system if cases peak rapidly. Then people will die of treatable conditions because they can't get timely care.

As for old people being expendable :mad:. Victoria had 800+ people die in our second wave. We do not wish to repeat the exercise.

Bodie1

4th Jan 2021, 06:17

To Bodie I say, if you expect life to be fair, predictable and operate in a linear fashion like a TV series, then you are in for a world of hurt.

Who said anything about fair, predictable or linear? It's obvious you are on the slide into senility. You have fallen for the fear campaign, so long as 'you're alright Jack' I guess all is fine. I've said on here on multiple occasions, protect the vulnerable, protect the at risk and protect the front liners. If you are so **** scared of this virus perhaps you should exercise some personal responsibility and isolate rather than expect the 98.98% of us that won't be affected to stay home just so you can laze about in coffee shops for your latte.

Lezzeno

4th Jan 2021, 06:42

Sunfish is correct
As for Covid19, the danger comes not from lethality but logistics.

According to the World Food Program covid lockdowns affecting the food supply chain will push an extra 60 to 70 million people to the brink of starvation. But hey at least they have been saved from the virus.

currawong

4th Jan 2021, 10:49

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1408/coronavirus_data_explorer_4d9da2d6ec5500c5d298383a12786cb4cd 909848.png
Hmmm, lets see now.

What works and what does not....

Bodie1

4th Jan 2021, 12:02

Potsie Weber

4th Jan 2021, 12:29

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1408/18b1ba09_aeda_4f8b_a8d8_6d531948828f_f9ead5511960df814beaa7a 9be56fdba24e0834e.png
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1100/a5314205_c846_4a99_88ae_b9f63d2a8d75_50bb9b294ed3949b0998538 637bcfc54cceeccce.jpeg

blubak

4th Jan 2021, 18:39

the Victorian Gov is a disgrace, get yourself sorted and hire resources.Coronavirus Australia live news: Swamped testing sites turn away thousandsCOVID-19 testing sites across Melbourne closed within an hour of opening on Sunday, swamped by thousands of Victorians requiring tests after returning from NSW and further stressed by health staff taking holiday leave.

Despite the temporary closures and lack of staff, Victorian health authorities processed more tests than their NSW colleagues on Saturday — 22,477 samples compared to 18,923 — although that remains far short of the more than 40,000 daily tests undertaken at the height of the second coronavirus wave.

By 9.30am on Sunday, the Department of Health and Human Services listed drive-through sites in Darebin, Keysborough and West Footscray as “over capacity, no further accepted”. Cars were also turned away from the Melbourne Sports and Aquatic Centre in Albert Park, which was listed as a three-hour wait, and sites in Chadstone, St Albans and Broadmeadows had waiting times of more than two hours.

But Jeroen Weimar, who is co-ordinating Victoria’s COVID-19 response, defended the long waiting times for testing.

“There was a 35 per cent uplift in the total number of tests delivered in the south and southeastern suburbs yesterday compared to the day before so we are getting the numbers through,” he said. “Our frontline staff have been working phenomenally hard for that entire period and we have seen a significant number of people rightly take some well-*deserved leave as we see across the wider sector, so we have had to gear up and mobilise,” he said.

“The choice we faced before Christmas was, do you hold people over and not let them go on leave after absolutely flogging themselves for nine months (or) do you say, ‘no, you have to stand around the testing stations on the off chance’ … we took a view that we needed to have the right balance of resources.”

The DHHS has identified a number of new exposure sites, with the number of infections in the state reaching 50.

New locations on Sunday included Brighton Beach on December 29 between midday and 3pm, Angus and Cootes Jeweller at Southland Shopping Centre on December 28 between 2.30pm and 2.50pm and the Costco Moorabbin on December 30 between 4pm and 5.50pm.

Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said there would not be any border restriction on Melbourne or Victoria “at this stage”. “But we’re keeping a very, very close eye on that,” she said on Sunday, after Victoria reported three new local cases.

Another Melbourne location, Grape & Grain in Moorabbin, which had yet to appear in DHHS warnings, said it would remain closed after staff tested positive.

The DHHS plans to boost testing capacity by extending hours, recalling staff, bringing on board agency staff and opening more pop-up and drive-through sites.

The Victorian branch of the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation posted a message on Facebook seeking “urgent support” from nurses and midwives to work in testing sites across the state on behalf of Torrens Health and the health department: “Shift lengths will vary from between six and 10 hours; travel and meal allowances are available in some circumstances.”

“I think 60,000 people made the right decision … to come back; I am confident the vast majority will follow through and say, right, I need to make sure I get tested because I don’t want to put myself at risk,” Mr Weimar said.
There were 32000+ tests in vic on sunday,in reality how many do you think they should be able to do & how many testers the govt should have on standby in case there is an outbreak?
I am not being smart but really curious as to how they should do it in your opinion.
I dont know if you agree with the small time frame given re the border closing but for the amount of people really angry at how quick it happened there are just as many slamming the govt for not closing it as soon as the sydney outbreak happened.
Im not suggesting the vic govt is perfect by any means but to me i believe they are doing a fairly good job right now however i may be just plain silly for doing so!

Ladloy

4th Jan 2021, 18:55

So what are you trying to say?

There are about 33 deaths per million cases in Australia?

So that death rate is about .000033%

If that's the case, why are there border closures? Shouldn't we be dancing in the streets? Hugging and Kissing? Because the death rate is so insignificantly small?
He's saying border closures work and if we don't limit movement during outbreaks our death rate will follow Sweden, US and UK

Ragnor

4th Jan 2021, 19:22

NSW were able to test over 50,000 a week without missing a beat. They were not expecting those numbers they were as always prepared. I still don’t understand why Vic, QLD and other states are not prepared.

blubak

4th Jan 2021, 19:35

Ragnor

4th Jan 2021, 19:40

Are you that much of an idiot? They were averaging over 50,000 a day did over 60,000 in one day Xmas eve.

Ladloy

4th Jan 2021, 19:48

Are you that much of an idiot? They were averaging over 50,000 a day did over 60,000 in one day Xmas eve.
You didn't say that, you said 50k a week.

Ragnor

4th Jan 2021, 20:13

I know, but he/she could not recognise a typo was made. Guess that’s why Vic is in such a mess.

WhisprSYD

4th Jan 2021, 20:20

50000 a week is a bit different to 32000 in 1 day.

obviously it was a mis-type on his behalf with NSW testing 60,000-70,000 a day over Xmas

blubak

4th Jan 2021, 20:20

I know, but he/she could not recognise a typo was made. Guess that’s why Vic is in such a mess.
The average testing numbers in nsw are 22000 a DAY right now,they want it to go to 50000.
Vic in a mess,ok sounds like you know everything & have all the answers,you should be pm.

blubak

4th Jan 2021, 20:25

I know, but he/she could not recognise a typo was made. Guess that’s why Vic is in such a mess.
Guess another 32000+ tests in vic yesterday is not a good number,even if it was 132000 it would not be enough for you.

WingNut60

4th Jan 2021, 20:40

Guess another 32000+ tests in vic yesterday is not a good number,even if it was 132000 it would not be enough for you.
Yep. The correct number is whatever NSW does. Always.
Never mind that in the early stages of the Northern Beaches F/U the queues were just as long, if not longer, with Oz-wide coverage of nasal whining from occupants of vehicles complaining that they'd been in the queue for 5 - 7 hours with no food or access to toilet facilities.
But that is "gold standard" Covid control policy, apparently. Impeccable planning. The world's best.

Ragnor

4th Jan 2021, 21:09

That is a good number credit when credit is due hopefully Sydney matches it.

I said NSW has had long lines never said they were quick, northern beaches line up were long and my hat goes off to those residents the did a brilliant job sticking it out but NSW never turned anyone away due to having to shut up shop at 21:30. They got the job done.

Let’s not forget how this outbreak in Avalon and Western Sydney started in December the giant hole in this is international arrivals.

novice110

4th Jan 2021, 21:47

The more testing that goes on the better it is, yes.

Is there really much difference though between 20k and 90k out of 5 million people ?

Bodie1

5th Jan 2021, 02:26

He's saying border closures work and if we don't limit movement during outbreaks our death rate will follow Sweden, US and UK

Oh my gawd.........that graph proves that lockdowns work? :} So you're using Chairman Dan or Sunfish evidence now?

It must be Sunfish evidence because only a moron would present such stupidity as evidence.

De_flieger

5th Jan 2021, 03:30

So what are you trying to say?

There are about 33 deaths per million cases in Australia?

So that death rate is about .000033%

You shouldn’t be criticising the statistics presented by others when you get your own so egregiously wrong. There have been 909 deaths in Australia from covid-19 as of todays date, so if there were 33 per million cases as you state, that would imply Australia had approx 27.5 million cases of covid-19 - that every single person in Australia had been infected, which is clearly not the case. There have been 909 deaths and 28504 cases as of today, giving a death rate of 3.18% of confirmed infections. Entirely different to your statement, which is off by a factor of around 100,000.

thisishardtochoose

5th Jan 2021, 03:48

Well people on this thread should be happy, Qantas started taking bookings for International Travel July onwards, AJ must know something the general public doesn't

Buster Hyman

5th Jan 2021, 03:49

The state of this thread. :rolleyes:

Turnleft080

5th Jan 2021, 04:01

You shouldn’t be criticising the statistics presented by others when you get your own so egregiously wrong. There have been 909 deaths in Australia from covid-19 as of todays date, so if there were 33 per million cases as you state, that would imply Australia had approx 27.5 million cases of covid-19 - that every single person in Australia had been infected, which is clearly not the case. There have been 909 deaths and 28504 cases as of today, giving a death rate of 3.18% of confirmed infections. Entirely different to your statement, which is off by a factor of around 100,000.
The only alteration I would change in your paragraph is, with covid-19 not from covid-19.

601

5th Jan 2021, 04:14

with covid-19 not from covid-19.
Correct. I would like to know the numbers who have died FROM Covid-19 not with it.
A lot older blokes die with prostate cancer not from it.
There is a difference. I have not seen an explanation as to why testing positive with Covid would automatically infer that you died from Covid.

andrewr

5th Jan 2021, 04:34

At no stage prior were Victorians warned that if they leave the state they may be subject to this type of action.

There were very clear warnings on the 20th December or earlier that:

The situation in NSW was unpredictable
The red zone was likely to expand
If you travel to NSW there was a risk you would not be able to return home.

Many people ignored the warnings, but the idea that there were no warnings is false.

Ragnor

5th Jan 2021, 04:34

Well the last Covid-19 death in NSW in the last week or so they put it down to Covid as the gentleman had it in March. So that would mean if you die from any respiratory illness moving forward it could be a covid death.

blubak

5th Jan 2021, 05:43

There were very clear warnings on the 20th December or earlier that:

The situation in NSW was unpredictable
The red zone was likely to expand
If you travel to NSW there was a risk you would not be able to return home.

Many people ignored the warnings, but the idea that there were no warnings is false.
100% correct,people were advised against going to nsw.
If the choice is made to go well so be it,if the circumstances or the risk changes well also so be it but if you take a risk well often the consequences are not what you expect.
Of course its very hard on the affected people but like i mentioned in a previous post there are lots of people still criticising the government now for not closing the border quickly enough so as always everyone cant be pleased.

1A_Please

5th Jan 2021, 05:48

There were very clear warnings on the 20th December or earlier that:

The situation in NSW was unpredictable
The red zone was likely to expand
If you travel to NSW there was a risk you would not be able to return home.

Many people ignored the warnings, but the idea that there were no warnings is false.
Many people were in NSW seeing friends and family they had not seen all year. They were in green zones that, even now, remain Covid-free. The Victorian government's panicked actions were just another of their stuff-ups which continued today with the bizarre announcement that residents can return from Qld by road as long as they do a mad cannonball run across NSW only stopping twice for no more than 15 minutes. Good luck with that if you have kids. I wonder what the TAC thinks of this advice given it directly contradicts what they have been advertising for years!!!

Sunfish

5th Jan 2021, 06:26

1A and others, you just don't get it. This is war.

War is basically a learning situation where the side that learns and reacts fastest to new developments overpowers and destroys the opposition. This truism is encapsulated in the saying "no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy" (Helmuth Karl Bernhard von Moltke the elder).

So yes, !A,, they were in the green zone, etc. but the plan changed. Think quick! It's going to change again and again. The only constant is change.

Ever heard the old army slogan "hurry up and wait?"

Ragnor

5th Jan 2021, 06:27

Who comes up with these insane rules. Drive from QLD to VIC two stops 15 minutes what about singles do they not matter? Truck drivers can not do that much driving. Hopefully ppl do not attempt this ridiculous feat wouldn’t want to have any road accidents because of it or even worse they crash into someone else. Just another Dan Andrew’s f$&k up.

Buster Hyman

5th Jan 2021, 06:31

601

5th Jan 2021, 06:47

Many people ignored the warnings, but the idea that there were no warnings is false.

There are lots of places around the world that I would not travel to before Covid even though the official travel advice was OK.
I have now added NSW and VIC to that list.
Yes I do have relation and friends in those states.

I am part of a travelling group who are looking at our next group holiday. This year is supposed to be out next big trip. However, we have decided that this time it will be within the confines of Qld.

Ragnor

5th Jan 2021, 07:18

That is your choice. There are 1000s who think different to you.

The UK and US must be pissing them self at us. I thought I was Australian not sure what we are called now. 7 cases today and it’s a state of emergency one premier having their constituents do an insane feat to get home another two premiers well one and a deputy having a war of words. I’ve lived in various parts of the world and always been defensive of Australia and how good it is to others. Never in my wildest dream I would know all the premiers names their back grounds and be so defensive about the state I live in.

SOPS

5th Jan 2021, 07:39

kingRB

5th Jan 2021, 08:12

IWannaFly2020

5th Jan 2021, 08:14

currawong

5th Jan 2021, 08:38

Oh my gawd.........that graph proves that lockdowns work? :} So you're using Chairman Dan or Sunfish evidence now?

It must be Sunfish evidence because only a moron would present such stupidity as evidence.

I presented the graph, Bodie.

With no opinion attached, just data that people can draw their own conclusions from.

For which you call me a moron.

Nice one champ. Take a long hard look at yourself.

Aussie Bob

5th Jan 2021, 08:43

I am so sad, but I think all you folk on this forum who favour these "border closures" and other draconian measures implemented buy clueless politicians should take a long hard look in the mirror. What you will see is a fearful deluded and disturbed individual unable to accept personal responsibility. How you ever made it to a PIC position eludes me. This flu has a 99.9% survival rate amongst the healthy (have you got a class 1?). The measures you support cause more harm than good.

Sorry, but with respect, that's what I think.

wheels_down

5th Jan 2021, 08:43

Why doesn’t all quarantine go to Howard Springs NT?? Isolated, run by the government. No city/urban interaction risk. QF could base 2-3 787’s there and reach 90% of requests. Crew stay in own dedicated hotel with facilities. Situation over. Fed government should take over the issue. Stand up SCOMO.
The other carriers have said they are not flying here if that’s the only option. Air Freight corridors do need to remain open and QR/EK/SQ/CX are lifting huge volumes in and out at the moment underneath.

We can’t forgo air freight. UPS/DHL/Fedex are stretched at the moment.

Most are pretty full outbound currently. CZ are filling a 380 out of a Melbourne daily.

De_flieger

5th Jan 2021, 08:51

I think the US and UK are pissing themselves..but not at us. The UK is reportedly days away from their hospital system being unable to cope.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/13031334
Yep. And Los Angeles has changed their criteria for transporting patients to hospital in the last 24 hours or so. Paramedics have been ordered that some of the most critically ill patients that would previously undergo resuscitation attempts and transport to hospital, instead are to be pronounced dead in the field, to free up hospital resources. They've also changed the criteria for oxygen administration, reducing the circumstances and amounts for administration due to the shortage of oxygen/administration supplies and bottles, and are building emergency treatment rooms in carparks. Los Angeles issues brutal letter: do not treat dying patients (https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/los-angeles-issues-brutal-letter-do-not-treat-dying-patients/news-story/d7d1c44e21c7abf636010c605d45a221)
They've got some pretty big problems in the UK and USA, I doubt they are looking at Victoria or NSW and saying "wow, with 8 or 10 cases today those guys have really screwed up". Or even looking at them at all.

SOPS

5th Jan 2021, 08:56

turbantime

5th Jan 2021, 09:39

The virus may have a 98-99% survival rate but don’t mistake survival with recovery. I’d like to keep my Class 1 by ensuring I don’t get complications arising from the virus such as scarring of heart and lungs. Many studies are being conducted into the long term effects and they’re barely scratching the surface. That’s not to say I agree with these draconian measures either, we need to live alongside the virus. Heck, even with the vaccine we’ll have to live alongside this thing.

SOPS

5th Jan 2021, 10:01

I can’t find the link but there are now reports from France that a few cases have sent people blind. The virus is attacking the optic nerve. This is not the flu.

Dannyboy39

5th Jan 2021, 11:55

Ragnor

5th Jan 2021, 18:23

Does closing an internal border for the sake of 8 cases benefit more than having managed risk? Because the vaccine doesn’t eradicate 100%.

An interesting point there. measles has serious complications for under 5 and pregnant women, chicken pox in Adults has serious effect particular for pregnant women but these are risk we are willing to accept. No border closures no quarantine we just accept it even shooter Mcggose on be west does.

Will there be accepted risk after October when it’s expected all citizens of the states and territory have voluntary taken the vaccine. My biggest fear is this will go on for years and years of this madness because no risk will be accepted, so how does this end?!

Shutting down economies for premiers to grand stand beat their chest over a disease that’s been elevated because of the media and how they report it and for a disease so deadly half don’t even know they have had it until they get a blood test.

blubak

5th Jan 2021, 18:56

There is no way ourselves in the U.K. (and hopefully not the US for that matter) are pissing ourselves at the way Australia have handled this. Both countries will probably have 6-700,000 deaths combined by the end of this pandemic and livelihoods destroyed. The U.K. NHS will be at capacity in 20 days time.

What I would say is the need for balance. I see an Australian government spokesman has censured Qantas today regarding reopening of international routes on July 1... the government saying you can come in when we’re ready. It seems to be getting needlessly political.

Does closing an internal border for the sake of 8 cases benefit more than having managed risk? Because the vaccine doesn’t eradicate 100%.
Hope you guys are doing ok over there,seems quite messy at the moment.
Do you wish your government had closed borders for longer or put other measures in place to try & stop it spreading or are the majority pretty ok with what the government has done so far?
Always good to get an opinion from somebody looking at us from the outside so to speak.

Sunfish

5th Jan 2021, 19:18

At least Governments are waking up to whom the culprits are - International aircrews.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-calls-for-all-states-to-covid-test-international-airline-crews-20210105-p56rw0.html

Can we please have rational discussion of where the pandemic is going?

The UK and South African mutations are ominous. We need to stop them getting a foothold here.

As for the chatter about closures, seriousness, etc. I think its been established that Covid is a serious health risk because it attacks the health system. If the health system fails we get deaths from preventable causes - accidents, pregnancy, etc.

As for the economy, it will bounce back. Unfortunately air services and interstate tourism are going to continue to be badly affected.

Dannyboy39

5th Jan 2021, 19:50

Hope you guys are doing ok over there,seems quite messy at the moment.
Do you wish your government had closed borders for longer or put other measures in place to try & stop it spreading or are the majority pretty ok with what the government has done so far?
Always good to get an opinion from somebody looking at us from the outside so to speak.
I rely on international air travel for work having done 130 flights as SLF between 2018-2019. I need it to return!

If you go back to the start of last year - we didn’t know what we were dealing with. Of course if you look at recent history with Ebola with a virus that isn’t as transmissible but incredibly deadly, people were rightly panicking. As a result, the virus is deadly probably in 1 in 150 cases. Out of 75k deaths in the U.K., only around 4000 were under 60, and the odds decrease further if you don’t have any underlying health problems. We also have capacity for 500k tests every day and yet today we still have 60k cases and statistically 1 in 50 have the virus right now... but on the other hand 49 in 50 don’t have it.

The day the US closed its border to Europe, I was being pulled out of Istanbul being there for work reasons.

Politicians and the public at large think everyone gets on the plane to go on holiday - people need it for work, to see family as well. To do a total shutdown of international aviation makes it very difficult for those who have genuine travel reasons. We have a long list of quarantine exemptions of which I have used the airline one for certain occupations.

The best way is to have a solid testing regime both at the departure and arrival location. If you test negative twice, perhaps 5-6 days apart, that should be a ticket to freedom, not to spend another 14 days in a hotel room. I think the UAE has now struck the correct balance.

To shut a country down with no exit plan for the sake of a handful of cases I find a bit ludicrous. It has to be cost / benefit.

For the Australian government to say the vaccine isn’t going to be qualifying for a quarantine exemption, I find that quite incredible - because you will never reopen otherwise. The England CMO today has said restrictions vaccine or not could remain until next winter 2021-22 as this becomes a background seasonal disease but with a manageable risk. The purpose of the Oxford vaccine was to prevent serious disease, not complete eradication.

gordonfvckingramsay

5th Jan 2021, 20:32

galdian

5th Jan 2021, 20:45

While I don’t like the border closures, isn’t the fact that we have such low infection rates testament to the effectiveness of limiting movement of people and thus the virus. We mustn’t forget that this whole thing started with a handful of individuals with “the flu”, and look at the world now.

P.S. It isn’t the flu, this virus comes with severe physiological and neurological side effects. The ongoing economic burden for the health sector due to life long illnesses will be enormous.

Fair enough - but don't tell me the problem, tell me the fix.

Your inference is don't travel and the virus won't spread - so we'll never open up and forever live in a siege mentality.
I dare say that's NOT your intent.

So what's the fix? Open/don't open? Domestic open and accept infections, maybe deaths? Open international and be guaranteed mutations and guaranteed infections, probably deaths?

SO what's the plan??

Green.Dot

5th Jan 2021, 21:02

SO what's the plan??

Maybe the solution is a more generous aviation/tourism financial support package for workers beyond March, and have airlines use it as intended to keep people properly current in sim etc?

Just accept aviation is screwed until vaccine covers most of the population.

Yep it will cost the Govt a large sum, but if they want the other 80% of the population largely unaffected by COVID and contribute to the economy that is one solution. (80% is a guess and that large sum is still peanuts compared to expenditure with a debilitating UK style lockdown.)

gordonfvckingramsay

5th Jan 2021, 21:03

Fair enough - but don't tell me the problem, tell me the fix.

Your inference is don't travel and the virus won't spread - so we'll never open up and forever live in a siege mentality.
I dare say that's NOT your intent.

So what's the fix? Open/don't open? Domestic open and accept infections, maybe deaths? Open international and be guaranteed mutations and guaranteed infections, probably deaths?

SO what's the plan??

That’s the double edge sword isn’t it. No I’m not suggesting we live a siege existence indefinitely, but we have been incredibly successful in saving lives. Economically speaking, we are also holding our own, the rest of the world is in bad economic shape but with a death toll to boot.

My feeling is that our state and federal governments are waiting to see vaccine data from overseas and also to see what our vaccine rollout yields. It’s hard to make a call on letting the population roam until there is data.

It’s a shame our vaccine was abandoned, apart from the false positive for HIV, it was doing very well.

Chronic Snoozer

5th Jan 2021, 21:05

An interesting point there. measles has serious complications for under 5 and pregnant women, chicken pox in Adults has serious effect particular for pregnant women but these are risk we are willing to accept. No border closures no quarantine we just accept it even shooter Mcggose on be west does.

Giant face palm emoji. MMR and chicken pox vaccines are readily available. What's your question?

galdian

5th Jan 2021, 21:19

Personally I don't think it's about the vaccines - it's about when Australia will be open for business again - and NOT be arbitrarily closing certain areas.

This would mean accepting there will be outbreaks, possibly deaths but minimised as much as possible with contract tracing, maybe isolated suburb closures....whatever.
Along with that an improved fast result testing protocol, 14 days is becoming unacceptable and increasingly unpalatable to many.

Now how the feds "encourage" various states/territories to fall into line for the greater good - that appears to be a major roadblock.

Ragnor

5th Jan 2021, 21:20

3Greens

5th Jan 2021, 21:51

I rely on international air travel for work having done 130 flights as SLF between 2018-2019. I need it to return!

If you go back to the start of last year - we didn’t know what we were dealing with. Of course if you look at recent history with Ebola with a virus that isn’t as transmissible but incredibly deadly, people were rightly panicking. As a result, the virus is deadly probably in 1 in 150 cases. Out of 75k deaths in the U.K., only around 4000 were under 60, and the odds decrease further if you don’t have any underlying health problems. We also have capacity for 500k tests every day and yet today we still have 60k cases and statistically 1 in 50 have the virus right now... but on the other hand 49 in 50 don’t have it.

The day the US closed its border to Europe, I was being pulled out of Istanbul being there for work reasons.

Politicians and the public at large think everyone gets on the plane to go on holiday - people need it for work, to see family as well. To do a total shutdown of international aviation makes it very difficult for those who have genuine travel reasons. We have a long list of quarantine exemptions of which I have used the airline one for certain occupations.

The best way is to have a solid testing regime both at the departure and arrival location. If you test negative twice, perhaps 5-6 days apart, that should be a ticket to freedom, not to spend another 14 days in a hotel room. I think the UAE has now struck the correct balance.

To shut a country down with no exit plan for the sake of a handful of cases I find a bit ludicrous. It has to be cost / benefit.

For the Australian government to say the vaccine isn’t going to be qualifying for a quarantine exemption, I find that quite incredible - because you will never reopen otherwise. The England CMO today has said restrictions vaccine or not could remain until next winter 2021-22 as this becomes a background seasonal disease but with a manageable risk. The purpose of the Oxford vaccine was to prevent serious disease, not complete eradication.

he didn’t say that at all. He speculated that some restrictions “may” be reintroduced next winter if the virus was to run away again and put pressure on the NHS. He didn’t say which restrictions they would be.

1A_Please

6th Jan 2021, 00:02

No question, the covid vaccine will be readily available as you state about the others but they’re not 100% effective but we accept the risk of some of the population getting those and it’s ok.

If you want a question- what will be the acceptable risk for covid once a vaccine is readily available?

Give yourself a massive face palm.
Measles vaccine is very efficacious at about 95%. With MMR immunisations and immunity coverage (remember a lot of people born before 1970 actually caught measles) at about 70%, this means we effectively have herd immunity from measles in Australia.

1A_Please

6th Jan 2021, 00:43

Why doesn’t all quarantine go to Howard Springs NT?? Isolated, run by the government. No city/urban interaction risk. QF could base 2-3 787’s there and reach 90% of requests. Crew stay in own dedicated hotel with facilities. Situation over. Fed government should take over the issue. Stand up SCOMO.
Howard Springs is nowhere near big enough for what you suggest. We are currently receiving around 6800 arrivals into Australia per week. Howard Springs can only accept 500 arrivals per week. What we need is a remote place that is comfortable for arriving pax but is somewhere Australians don't want to go; may I suggest Canberra?:ok:

jrfsp

6th Jan 2021, 01:05

michigan j

6th Jan 2021, 01:05

What we need is a place that is comfortable for arriving pax

Well that rules out Canberra then.

neville_nobody

6th Jan 2021, 01:11

Ayers Rock??

dr dre

6th Jan 2021, 01:17

I think the Fed Gov is waiting to see real world data on the vaccine's effectiveness, particularly with different strains emerging, and its being reported the South African strain may not be protected against.....

COVID-19: South African variant ‘unlikely to bypass the protection provided by vaccines’ (https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-south-african-variant-unlikely-to-bypass-the-protection-provided-by-vaccines/)

“It is not anticipated that this mutation is sufficient for the ‘South African’ variant to bypass the protection provided by current vaccines. It’s possible that new variants will affect the efficacy of the COVID vaccines, but we shouldn’t make that assumption yet about the South African one.”

Francois Balloux, professor of computational systems biology and director, UCL Genetics Institute, University College London.

Every scientist knows this virus will mutate into different strains, just like the flu. It’s just that there’s no initial base herd immunity against the SARS-COV-2 virus now. In future years different strains will emerge and be countered with vaccines against that strain, just like influenza.

Derfred

6th Jan 2021, 03:22

Actually, this virus doesn't mutate anything like the flu.

The flu mutates aggressively, which is why we can't eradicate it despite massive vaccination rollouts annually.

This virus only has minor mutations in comparison, so eradication is plausible.

currawong

6th Jan 2021, 03:39

Internal borders would not be an issue if international quarantine was in order.

Until it is, the problems will continue.

High stakes game, betting mandatory hotel quarantine cash injection against potential escape into the community and economic disaster.

Dannyboy39

6th Jan 2021, 06:49

Howard Springs is nowhere near big enough for what you suggest. We are currently receiving around 6800 arrivals into Australia per week. Howard Springs can only accept 500 arrivals per week. What we need is a remote place that is comfortable for arriving pax but is somewhere Australians don't want to go; may I suggest Canberra?:ok:
Or as I mentioned a few pages back, how about Nauru or Christmas Island - Australian taxes are already paying for this already.
The policy of housing people 1000s of miles away in these "situations" puts a stain on the international credibility of a great nation.

WingNut60

6th Jan 2021, 07:28

Or as I mentioned a few pages back, how about Nauru or Christmas Island - Australian taxes are already paying for this already.
The policy of housing people 1000s of miles away in these "situations" puts a stain on the international credibility of a great nation.
You're probably correct about who's paying for Nauru but you do realise that it's a sovereign nation, right?

dr dre

6th Jan 2021, 07:55

Australian COVID-19 vaccine rollout brought forward two weeks to early March (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-06/australian-covid-vaccine-timeline-brought-forward-early-march/13035410)

He said the first doses of the vaccine would be delivered to frontline workers and those with exposure to international travellers, and that the medical advice on what order the vaccine would be delivered to other priority groups and the rest of the population was "still being finalised".

So I would guess that would definitely include international aircrew, maybe even domestic aircrew although they wouldn’t be too far behind in the queue. And it’ll probably be a case of “no jab, no job”......

Turnleft080

6th Jan 2021, 11:08

Interesting insight from what's happening in Israel.
Already 15% jabbed and over 60% of over 60yo done.
By the time March arrives Israel could well be done.
Thought I add the interview here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzpy7LcmNQ

Ragnor

6th Jan 2021, 19:19

It will be interesting what will be put first. Covid vaccination or the Flu jab. Article in the paper today suggesting the flu jab will be put first halting the covid vaccination in late March just after the roll out in early March.

Global Aviator

6th Jan 2021, 20:20

Howard Springs is nowhere near big enough for what you suggest. We are currently receiving around 6800 arrivals into Australia per week. Howard Springs can only accept 500 arrivals per week. What we need is a remote place that is comfortable for arriving pax but is somewhere Australians don't want to go; may I suggest Canberra?:ok:

Howard Springs is up to 1000 a week now isn’t it?

If it was ramped up properly it could have a constant 3000 people in it. Yes it would require the logistics to go with it. The facility is there, the beds are there, the airport is there.

Yeah, nah.

A320 Glider

6th Jan 2021, 20:44

The UK has started vaccinations in December.

Why is Australia planning for March?
Nearly four months behind the UK and even Europe and USA?

Chronic Snoozer

6th Jan 2021, 20:49

The UK has started vaccinations in December.

Why is Australia planning for March?
Nearly four months behind the UK and even Europe and USA?

Prudence? .

Paragraph377

6th Jan 2021, 23:20

Has the little fella started selling tickets to Washington yet? Might need to take face masks and riot gear with you.

1A_Please

6th Jan 2021, 23:53

The UK has started vaccinations in December.

Why is Australia planning for March?
Nearly four months behind the UK and even Europe and USA?
Several reasons:

We are not experiencing uncontrolled and dangerous spread like US and UK so emergency approval is not required.
TGA is still reviewing detailed results particularly in relation to A-Z vaccine as to how the 2 doses are administered.
We have not yet received any imported vaccines and will not receive these in sufficient volumes before March
CSL is not yet able to produce local Astra-Zenaca vaccine in sufficient volumes to create meaningful vaccination program
Linfox and DHL are still establishing logistical supply line for vaccines particularly Pfizer vaccine which has special cold-handling requirements

Ragnor

7th Jan 2021, 00:49

PM announcing vaccine roll out to be moved further forward, mid to late Feb now.

dr dre

7th Jan 2021, 01:25

PM announcing vaccine roll out to be moved further forward, mid to late Feb now.

Good news. As they aren’t too keen on removing the obvious threat (quarantine in capital city hotels, a Queensland casual hotel worker tested positive today), it’s good to see they are stepping up the rollout of the only thing that’ll bring this pandemic and the disruption to our industry under control.

Now if they aimed to have enough immunised prior to winter to allow lifting of restrictions that would be ideal.

EDIT

And upon further reading they’re aiming for 4 million Australians immunised by end of March. So perhaps 15 million by start of winter? Maybe enough for herd immunity.

Either way - get the jab, encourage others to get it and let’s end this soon!

C441

7th Jan 2021, 22:38

Greater Brisbane locked down from 6:00pm Friday to (at least) 6:00pm Monday. The Premier and CHO implied that further cases identified over the weekend will see this extended indefinitely.

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 01:34

PM and CMO cleared up the vaccine roll out and regarding the voluntary up take up of the vaccine. It will not be mandatory for ppl to get it, but a requirement to get it to be able to move about. Examples they provided ICU nurse it’s a requirement to have MMR vaccination to work in that area for aged care workers it’s a requirement to have the flu shot every year to work in aged care. I know there is a few here that believe they don’t have to get it, I guess you could find yourself on an extended stand down I guess.

DHC8 Driver

8th Jan 2021, 02:03

SOPS

8th Jan 2021, 02:23

WA shut to Queensland. Western Australians being told not to travel. Won’t be long to all the borders are shut.

neville_nobody

8th Jan 2021, 02:28

Servo

8th Jan 2021, 02:30

How long can the airlines hang on for? This madness can't go on all year. They don't have unlimited money like the State Governments seem to have.
Maybe it will take a major bankruptcy with people in their thousands unemployed for the States to get a grip on reality.

You mean like Virgin..................... nothing changed. In fact I am now a LOT closer to losing the house. Bank is starting to get antsy. Thanks Premiers, love your work /s

myshoutcaptain

8th Jan 2021, 02:35

SOPS

8th Jan 2021, 02:42

Marks precious Pilbara is about to take a gigantic hit. Most VA QF WA based pilots are now in isolation. East coast bases can’t do internal WA. Grab your popcorn ... great job McGowan

ps lucky the hard border kept us safe

Ok.. I will bite. Why are most VA WA based pilots in isolation? And there are more airlines than VA doing internal WA flights.

neville_nobody

8th Jan 2021, 02:42

You mean like Virgin..................... nothing changed.

I meant all airlines. Noone is immune if this continues for another year. The Federal government may dole out some more money to keep people on the payroll but will they want to keep propping up all the Labor controlled States? The execution between the Libs in NSW and everyone else has been polar opposite.

Dannyboy39

8th Jan 2021, 02:58

SOPS

8th Jan 2021, 03:04

Global Aviator

8th Jan 2021, 03:13

It came in through a Quarantine Hotel. It is time to either shut the border completely or put International arrivals out in the desert.

Or follow the procedures or tweak the procedures and follow. It really baffles me, I have been through hotel Q and I can see no way of transmission if the procedures are followed.

As I said above, ramp up HS to full potential.

Citizens have ever right to continue to come home.

chookcooker

8th Jan 2021, 03:55

Or follow the procedures or tweak the procedures and follow. It really baffles me, I have been through hotel Q and I can see no way of transmission if the procedures are followed.

As I said above, ramp up HS to full potential.

Citizens have ever right to continue to come home.

ahh yes like communism, works in theory. That mentality never hurt anyone.

Global Aviator

8th Jan 2021, 04:00

National cabinet just halved arrivals into Aus effectively.

Looks like many here are getting their wishes.

QF starting international in July hey..........

Colonel_Klink

8th Jan 2021, 04:04

brokenagain

8th Jan 2021, 04:14

are 9 cases today - and that cleaner has been to a lot of places whilst contagious.

All in hotel quarantine.

wheels_down

8th Jan 2021, 04:24

There was 1 case yesterday (the cleaner with the UK strain of the virus).

There are 9 cases today - and that cleaner has been to a lot of places whilst contagious.

The Virus got in through hotel quarantine.

Elimination would have worked - but for some reason we are still bringing in overseas travellers to hotel quarantine into the middle of our most populated cities. It defies any logic that this is still occurring after what happened in Victoria.

It’s up to the federal government to step up and set up inbound quarantine in remote parts of the country. This would cost a significant amount of money - but significantly less than the cost of the damage that is being done through opening and closing of the borders.
What about crews operating cargo only missions? We can’t turn the air cargo corridor off. These guys especially from the US are still clearly high risk, but is the risk worth it compared to turning the tap off cargo?m

Qatar and Emirates said they cannot fly into remote areas, very complex and not viable. They won’t be coming. The cargo from around the globe needs to keep flowing in somehow. QF is about as useless as Virgin when it comes to International freight capability.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 04:34

Brisbane going into a three day snap lockdown for the sake of ONE known case. Ridiculous.

(1) Why 3 days when the incubation period is around 5 days on average but up to 14 days.
(2) Its supposedly the “super Covid” U.K. strain - how did it get in if the borders have been all but shut for a year? Clearly a lot of countries are not flung enough genomic testing - the genie is well and truly out of the bottle.
(3) Isn’t this proving that all out elimination isn’t working?

1. The 3 day lockdown is to make contact tracing, easier, to limit the amount of exponential spread and better track any movements of close contacts.

2. it’s not “supposedly” the UK strain, it has undergone genetic testing and has been confirmed as the new strain. For a detailed explanation about why this new strain can have a much greater effect on the populace and why all states and the federal government are being very serious about today’s situation here’s a good explainer:

A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-variant-worse-than-deadly-variant-expert-explained-2021-1)

How did it get in? Easy. The carrier flew in on an international flight and infected a hotel worker whilst quarantining.

3. No, it proves bring in people from infectious countries and housing them in the middle of cities isn’t working. Some improvements have been made today (mandatory masks on flights, preflight testing before boarding a flight to Australia, a reduced cap on arrivals) but the ultimate solution (quarantining arrivals in remote locations) is not being taken.

Maybe they’ve decided to accelerate the vaccine rollout to establish a basic herd immunity within the next few months and it’s not worth setting up remote isolation facilities for that time?

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 04:36

Qatar and Emirates said they cannot fly into remote areas, very complex and not viable. They won’t be coming. The cargo from around the globe needs to keep flowing in somehow. QF is about as useless as Virgin when it comes to International freight capability.

That’s why we have Australian airlines with hundreds of stood down pilots and cabin crew who’s knowledge and experience of flying to remote airports in Australia could be used to solve this situation, if our government decided to do something in the national interest for once.

Sunfish

8th Jan 2021, 05:00

The logical solution is to treat all international flight crew and pax as infected, period.

We could test but even if the tests were accurate to the three sigma limit - 99.5% - which they aren't, that means one positive escaping from 20 -30 crews, which is unacceptable.

nope, full quarantine. We provide self contained accommodation for the crews. Deep clean when they leave.

KRviator

8th Jan 2021, 05:10

It doesn't matter one iota what the arrivals cap is, when you have more people leaving than are coming home! I highly doubt that all those departing passengers will stay gone, so at some point, they will themselves want to run the gauntlet of the arrivals system. The whole "26,000 citizens to come home by Christmas" or whatever figure they give on any particular day is meaningless if they don't stop people leaving who will want to come home at some point, meaning the cycle is an endless loop.

The simple solution is to stop all international passenger arrivals. No if's, buts or maybes. IT's not exactly a politically acceptable response, but if we want Australia to reopen, it isn't going to happen while we still have hotel quarantine in place.

If it got out once, you could say its' bad luck. Twice is bad management. Multiple times across multiple states, then they aren't all incompetent. I just wish it would have happened in WA!

About twice as many people are still flying out of Australia despite COVID-19 travel restrictions, compared to the number of passengers who are managing to secure flights back home.

An ABC analysis of the latest government data reveals that in 2020, outbound passenger movements continued to outpace arrivals, in some months by a factor of three to one. It is unclear how many of the departing passengers held Australian passports, but it is feared more pressure will be placed on hotel quarantine arrangements when some eventually decide to return.

Almost 40,000 Australians stranded overseas have registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade as wanting to come home but have so far been unable to secure return flights. "The list is growing with more and more Australians leaving the country," warned Australian Airports Association CEO James Goodwin. "Three people are leaving for every one person returning and that is putting added pressure on the hotel quarantine system and for all those other stranded Australians who are desperate to come home."

Since March 25 last year, Australians have been banned from leaving the country unless they receive a formal exemption from the Australian Border Force Commissioner for reasons such as compassionate grounds. On March 20, the Federal Government also banned people who were not citizens or permanent residents from being allowed to enter Australia unless they met limited travel exemptions.

According to figures produced by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics, more than 46,000 people flew out of Australia in August last year, while just over 15,000 arrived.

A similar three-to-one ratio of outgoing passengers compared to incoming passengers was recorded in September, while in October departures almost doubled the number of arrivals into Australia. In April, the month immediately after the international travel ban was announced, 53,000 passengers flew out of Australia compared to just over 16,000 who arrived here.

Mr Goodwin said the Federal Government should now consider using military aircraft and bases to help repatriate and quarantine the thousands of citizens who remain stranded overseas.
Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-07/australia-flight-arrivals-departures-during-coronavirus-pandemic/13037290)

spektrum

8th Jan 2021, 05:14

Why the F do we have to call it covid-19 or corona virus and not China virus
But it’s fine to call it “UK strain” or South African strain” ?

Paragraph377

8th Jan 2021, 05:45

Why the F do we have to call it covid-19 or corona virus and not China virus
But it’s fine to call it “UK strain” or South African strain” ?
Because the Governments are gutless and don’t want to upset the Chinese. These a#sholes caused/created/spread this virus so the entire world should stand against them and cut them off completely. I mean seriously, they have infected the entire globe in a way that is killing hundreds of thousands, destroying entire economies and turning the world into one that will be awful for years to come. And what has the global powers done?? SFA. Too scared to act. And an even more pathetic UN that can only say; “we are disappointed in you China that you won’t let inspectors in”. It’s a joke, an absolute joke.

SOPS

8th Jan 2021, 05:53

What he said. 👍👍

Global Aviator

8th Jan 2021, 05:54

Why the F do we have to call it covid-19 or corona virus and not China virus
But it’s fine to call it “UK strain” or South African strain” ?

You already know the answer to that with PC bull****e.

blubak

8th Jan 2021, 06:02

Because the Governments are gutless and don’t want to upset the Chinese. These a#sholes caused/created/spread this virus so the entire world should stand against them and cut them off completely. I mean seriously, they have infected the entire globe in a way that is killing hundreds of thousands, destroying entire economies and turning the world into one that will be awful for years to come. And what has the global powers done?? SFA. Too scared to act. And an even more pathetic UN that can only say; “we are disappointed in you China that you won’t let inspectors in”. It’s a joke, an absolute joke.
Morrison is too gutless to criticise Trump never mind the Chinese.
It looks like int travellers now need a negative covid test before boarding a flight to oz,would that have been a given for at least the last 3+ months considering whats going on overseas.

Dannyboy39

8th Jan 2021, 06:46

3. No, it proves bring in people from infectious countries and housing them in the middle of cities isn’t working. Some improvements have been made today (mandatory masks on flights, preflight testing before boarding a flight to Australia, a reduced cap on arrivals) but the ultimate solution (quarantining arrivals in remote locations) is not being taken.
This wasn't the point I was trying to make. The vaccine will not get rid of the virus 100% and possibly will not stop transmission. The virus is endemic across a high proportion of the world and will take many years for it to shift.

Australia over the coming months will need to accept that even with vaccination, small numbers of cases will keep popping up - unless you want to keep sending international passengers to Nauru, Christmas Island or Alice Springs forever and ever.

I and 10,000 Englishmen will be swarming BNE in December 2021 for a test match - a game worth about $80m to the local economy. Are the Aussies really going to turn that down?!

Dannyboy39

8th Jan 2021, 06:49

Qatar and Emirates said they cannot fly into remote areas, very complex and not viable. They won’t be coming. The cargo from around the globe needs to keep flowing in somehow. QF is about as useless as Virgin when it comes to International freight capability.
They can operate into any airport with good runway length and width, set of steps and basic immigration capability. It would be a pity though if the AU government want to get hold of their belly freight in good time...

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 07:15

This wasn't the point I was trying to make. The vaccine will not get rid of the virus 100% and possibly will not stop transmission. The virus is endemic across a high proportion of the world and will take many years for it to shift.

It’s not about stopping infections of the SARS-COV-2 virus. It’s about slowing the spread of the COVID-19 disease and subsequent pandemic from that disease the virus causes. Yes, they know that zero infections for life will be impossible to achieve. But they know that herd immunity will send the reproduction number below zero. It will cause the virus to die out. A vaccine will protect vulnerable populations. Will full eradication be possible? Maybe, but that will take decades.

The vaccine is to stop a pandemic, not a virus if that makes sense.

But it’s fine to call it “UK strain” or South African strain

Well let’s refer to it as the new B117 strain then, which is exactly what scientists have named it.

Dannyboy39

8th Jan 2021, 07:19

It’s not about stopping infections of the SARS-COV-2 virus. It’s about slowing the spread of the COVID-19 disease and subsequent pandemic from that disease the virus causes. Yes, they know that zero infections for life will be impossible to achieve. But they know that herd immunity will send the reproduction number below zero. It will cause the virus to die out. A vaccine will protect vulnerable populations. Will full eradication be possible? Maybe, but that will take decades.

The vaccine is to stop a pandemic, not a virus if that makes sense.
It makes perfect sense - but it is not what APAC nations are trying to do, hence actions in BNE for 3 cases out of 2.5m+ population. The R number is virtually zero in these countries. There are more cases in my small 1,000 person village than in QLD.

RodH

8th Jan 2021, 07:24

I see Western Australia has now closed its border to all Queenslanders.

Back to where we were a couple of months ago.

Seems to be a very hasty decision By Mr. McGowan but he is well known for rushing into these decisions.

Sure , he is protecting his West Aussies but perhaps he could have waited until the 3 day Brisbane lockdown has finished and the Health Authorities analyse their findings.

Shoot first and ask questions later seems to be his trademark!!

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 07:29

I and 10,000 Englishmen will be swarming BNE in December 2021 for a test match - a game worth about $80m to the local economy. Are the Aussies really going to turn that down?!

You really have not been keeping up with what has been going on in Australia. Northern beaches lockdown alone cost 3.6 Billion to the economy. It will be interesting what 3 days cost Brisbane. So yes most likely we will turn down a measly 80 million. I hope they do id rather get back to work and see the world stabilize before the barmy army descends and creates and super spreading event.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 07:34

It makes perfect sense - but it is not what APAC nations are trying to do, hence actions in BNE for 3 cases out of 2.5m+ population. The R number is virtually zero in these countries. There are more cases in my small 1,000 person village than in QLD.

That’s once the people start getting immunised. That isn’t happening in Australia until next month. For the moment it’s best to keep these protocols in place until herd immunity is reached, especially with the increased transmissibility of the new B117 strain.

If you want to see what it looks like when this strain is released upon an unvaccinated population and why leaders here are being strict then watch this video:

NEW: a common response to reports of hospitals struggling this winter is "it’s no different to a bad flu season!" I’ve tracked down historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high. Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season

Seems to be a very hasty decision By Mr. McGowan but he is well known for rushing into these decisions.

Shoot first and ask questions later seems to be his trademark!!

Tasmania, SA and NSW put restrictions on this morning before WA did, ACT followed, Vic to come.

RodH

8th Jan 2021, 07:48

dr Dre . If I am correct Tas, Sa and NSW have not “closed “their borders to Queenslanders but have pace restrictions on them.
West Australia has “closed” its borders to all Queenslanders that are not exempt.
Quite a difference.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 07:59

Quite a difference.

14 days isolation. On a practical level as far as air travel goes that reduces demand substantially to the point where there might as well be full restrictions between states. The public isn’t really willing to fly in great numbers except for full elimination.

And word is it was Palaszczuk herself who wanted all other states to declare the hotspot and impose restrictions. I think she, and all other leaders, know the new strain is a whole new ballgame compared to the previous variants of the virus.

SOPS

8th Jan 2021, 08:05

This wasn't the point I was trying to make. The vaccine will not get rid of the virus 100% and possibly will not stop transmission. The virus is endemic across a high proportion of the world and will take many years for it to shift.

Australia over the coming months will need to accept that even with vaccination, small numbers of cases will keep popping up - unless you want to keep sending international passengers to Nauru, Christmas Island or Alice Springs forever and ever.

I and 10,000 Englishmen will be swarming BNE in December 2021 for a test match - a game worth about $80m to the local economy. Are the Aussies really going to turn that down?!

I think you are dreaming if you think you are coming to a cricket match in 2021... You really don’t understand what is going on.

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 08:06

Now the media and Gov have scared the sh!t out of everyone I doubt they will want to fly anytime soon.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 08:10

Now the media and Gov have scared the sh!t out of everyone I doubt they will want to fly anytime soon.

I’m getting a little sick of this. They’re not being panic merchants. There’s a significantly bad new strain of this virus which could cause untold damage to the nation if left unchecked. The very best option is strict protocols to get it under control domestically until enough people are vaccinated.

Foxxster

8th Jan 2021, 08:14

I think you are dreaming if you think you are coming to a cricket match in 2021... You really don’t understand what is going on.

indeed.I think people need to reset their expectations regarding international travel. Regardless of the vaccines, 2021 will mirror 2020. There may be isolated travel such as between Australia and Vanuatu , Fiji and NZ but to Europe, America etc, forget it.

Japanese Olympics postponed from 2020 to 2021, nope, Try July/ August 2022.

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 08:17

I’m sick of it also, NSW has 4 cases today media report it as another outbreak when in fact they’re all locked up already due to family members having it. Yes it’s a new strain in the way it’s more transmissible it’s not more deadly.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 08:32

Yes it’s a new strain in the way it’s more transmissible it’s not more deadly.

The new strain hasn’t spread in NSW. It’s increased transmissibility is the big problem, making it more of an issue than if the new strain was more deadly:

Adam Kucharski, an assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said that, in general, a variant that’s 50% more transmissible is a bigger problem than a variant that’s 50% more deadly.

A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-variant-worse-than-deadly-variant-expert-explained-2021-1)

Angle of Attack

8th Jan 2021, 08:41

The more deadly a virus the definitely less a problem it is because it kills the hosts too fast to spread, COVID19 is in the Goldilocks zone, it’s not massively deadly but incredibly infectious, this results in mass infections thus much more deaths due to economy of scale, it’s a real bitch.

Props _are_for_boats

8th Jan 2021, 08:53

Why the F do we have to call it covid-19 or corona virus and not China virus
But it’s fine to call it “UK strain” or South African strain” ?

100% agree...PC when it suits

amite

8th Jan 2021, 09:19

I am in China, and going abroad is a difficult task due to the severe epidemic! The government directly prohibits tourism and only allows to go out on business!

galdian

8th Jan 2021, 09:30

indeed.I think people need to reset their expectations regarding international travel. Regardless of the vaccines, 2021 will mirror 2020. There may be isolated travel such as between Australia and Vanuatu , Fiji and NZ but to Europe, America etc, forget it.

Japanese Olympics postponed from 2020 to 2021, nope, Try July/ August 2022.

IF the Olympics are further postponed be interesting to see if the Japanese PM resigns having emphatically stated they will happen - loss of face and all that stuff.
My bet is cancelled outright, can't really see running the summer/winter back to back, just IMHO.

Hopefully more people are starting to understand this virus is a moving target and not a fixed one hence all the forward planning and ramp up dates are simply hope and (at times) totally unrealistic.
I'd punt domestic not before second half '21, start talking about international in '22.

China Virus - love the observation and logical connection, PC crowd will be having conniptions! :D:D:D

Paragraph377

8th Jan 2021, 10:02

But the good news is that no Politician has been made redundant, had their hours cut back or had to take a pay cut. How fortunate....

aviation_enthus

8th Jan 2021, 11:08

ANY recovery will be hamstrung by the political messaging in Australia.

Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.

Now imagine....

Fast forward to October 2021. Vaccination has reached 80-90% of the Australian population. Most of the rich, mainly western countries around the world have vaccinated a majority of their citizens.

What now?

Australian politicians have shown ZERO appetite for any cases whatsoever. Flattening the curve was turned into elimination (sorry suppression 🤦‍♂️). So even with high vaccination rates there will always be some cases. Hopefully it will become like a normal winter with influenza, but the political narrative has created a huge fear of even ONE case!!!!

So given this, I imagine it will take months to change the “fear factor” and for the various premiers to stop the daily press briefings. Only then will the media and public attention move on and be able to ignore an ongoing low level of COVID cases.

But I’m not holding my breath...

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 13:20

ANY recovery will be hamstrung by the political messaging in Australia.

Back in 2017 Australia had a “worse than average” influenza season. Cases peaked at 9000 a week and hundred and hundreds of people died. Yet no one batted an eyelid. Sure the hospital staff probably noticed, but no one else was affected.

It's too late to still be using the "it's no worse than the flu" argument. For comparison USA standard flu deaths per year is 12,000 to 50,000, COVID has taken 365,000 in 9 months. We have vaccines for the flu and vast experience with it.

Fast forward to October 2021. Vaccination has reached 80-90% of the Australian population. Most of the rich, mainly western countries around the world have vaccinated a majority of their citizens.

What now?

Well a herd immunity has been reached, the pandemic is subsiding and life can start to return to normal.

Australian politicians have shown ZERO appetite for any cases whatsoever.

Without a vaccine. One case can quickly turn into millions. At one point the UK, USA, Brazil, Italy, Spain all had one case too......

So given this, I imagine it will take months to change the “fear factor” and for the various premiers to stop the daily press briefings. Only then will the media and public attention move on and be able to ignore an ongoing low level of COVID cases.

Yeah, the fear factor of exponential spread with an un-immunised populace. Which is why UK hospitals are overflowing and US hospitals are running out of oxygen. It's a horrific situation. Once a vaccine stops the pandemic (not necessarily the virus) then Covid can become like a seasonal flu illness.

Australopithecus

8th Jan 2021, 13:54

The mutant atrain B1.1.17 is apparently 70% more infectious than the original Sars-CoV-2. That's really a huge problem because the way that negates the various control efforts.

The basic R value for the original virus is estimated to be close to 3, but the various masks, distancing, hygiene and isolation efforts reduce that to around 1.2. Even less in Australia with high compliance and the warm weather. The new strain shows, even with all those measures, an R value much higher. I still haven’t seen a number, but one scientist estimated it is R=5, perhaps R=3 AFTER countermeasures.

That means that a vaccine is going to be the only hope in slowing the spread, but more importantly, it means that more people will have to be vaccinated (or recovered) to achieve herd immunity.
The formula for that is 1-1/R, so if the raw R for the mutant is 5, then 80% of the population will have to have some kind of immunity to stop the continued spread.. An 80% vaccination rate is going to take a vigorous education campaign and probably some carrot/stick inducements.

blubak

8th Jan 2021, 19:42

But the good news is that no Politician has been made redundant, had their hours cut back or had to take a pay cut. How fortunate....
Queen P has decided that masks have to be worn in greater brisbane,how could you ever expect her to make such a mammoth decision such as this if her pay or hours were reduced,she is a real hero😷

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 19:45

Just watching the news I wonder if Queen P has made the situation worse?! GB locked down Northern beaches a LGA of SY this didn’t cause people to leave the city in mass like I just watched in BN. She locked down a city and other areas which caused the mass exodus of people to Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Airports. line ups at super markets all over the city to panic by crap wrap because you need 100 rolls for three days she could have created her own super seeding event.

I hope they have a good contact tracing team, which is yet to be seen. Hopefully by Monday all is well and under control NSW and VIC are in a good place so travel could soon start again within domestic.

Foxxster

8th Jan 2021, 20:12

Which vaccine are you talking about anyway. The ones that are effective against current strains or the ones that will need to be modifications of the current ones to combat the inevitable mutated strain of COVID that will be immune to the current vaccines.

And we will go from say 90% of people vaccinated to 0% overnight.

You know, just like you have to get ANNUAL flu shots. Which is probably where we are headed with this.

Except the flu shot is voluntary. The COVID shot will not be. The government probably won’t mandate it but it will be compulsory if you want to.

do any international and probably interstate travel
get a job. Many employers already saying they will require it
go to any sporting events
go to any concerts or theatre

etc etc. Halt. papers please

oh, and I have read that the UK’s recent decision to space out the second shot to 12 weeks instead of the two weeks as was the method tested for all the vaccines has the potential to produce a vaccine resistant strain. Which is just wonderful.

Ragnor.. completely agree. If the virus was out before her announcement, it is now likely spread more and further.

Green.Dot

8th Jan 2021, 20:23

C441

8th Jan 2021, 21:13

She locked down a city and other areas which caused the mass exodus of people to Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Airports. line ups at super markets all over the city to panic by crap wrap because you need 100 rolls for three days she could have created her own super seeding event.
Within 20 minutes of Anna's announcement there was a queue 100m long to get into the local Woolies. Inside the store, people waited in queues winding through the aisles for 45 minutes to check-out, as other shoppers squeezed among them. After an hour the queue outside was 300m long in 2 directions, all standing half a metre apart, with maybe one in twenty people wearing masks. This was repeated at most shopping centres with a Coles/Woolies/Aldi around Brisbane.

It could be argued that the manner of implementation actually dramatically increased the likelihood of the virus spreading; if there was ever a significant danger of it spreading at all.

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 21:18

galdian

8th Jan 2021, 21:25

The flu shot is voluntary however to work in certain industry it’s a requirement. The Gov made it clear start of the week the covid vaccine will be voluntary but it will be a requirement to have it if you work on aged care, medical and transport if you want to enter Aus or move about domestically you it will be a requirement also.

Not having a go, just confused. :*
Sorry - when you say "the Gov" are you talking about NSW Gov or Vic Gov or NT Gov or WA Gov or.....?
Real longshot - maybe you meant the Fed Gov?

So much management, so little leadership and direction....for Australia.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 21:26

Which vaccine are you talking about anyway. The ones that are effective against current strains or the ones that will need to be modifications of the current ones to combat the inevitable mutated strain of COVID that will be immune to the current vaccine

The two new mutations of Covid have been studied and have been found to be as effective (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/health/pfizer-vaccine-variant-strain-mutation/index.html) on the virus.

For future strains well there’s a solution. Everyone gets vaccinated first and that provides a basic immunity against SARS-COV-2. It any strains appear which have vaccine resistance they should spread slower. But then every year like with the flu shot (maybe the two can be combined) you get a Covid shot with any new Covid strains included. Last year’s flu shot included 4 strains as determined to be the ones most needed by scientists.

Except the flu shot is voluntary. The COVID shot will not be. The government probably won’t mandate it but it will be compulsory

Well with the amount of anti-vaxxer nonsense spreading around that would dissuade a lot of people from getting one, so the inducement to get people to take it will be requirements if you want to travel, have a job, attend events, have your kids attend school etc. We already have “no jab no play” and that works fine, I fully support “no jab no job” (except for the immunocompromised) as well.

aviation_enthus

8th Jan 2021, 21:37

It's too late to still be using the "it's no worse than the flu" argument. For comparison USA standard flu deaths per year is 12,000 to 50,000, COVID has taken 365,000 in 9 months. We have vaccines for the flu and vast experience with it.

Well a herd immunity has been reached, the pandemic is subsiding and life can start to return to normal.

Without a vaccine. One case can quickly turn into millions. At one point the UK, USA, Brazil, Italy, Spain all had one case too......

Yeah, the fear factor of exponential spread with an un-immunised populace. Which is why UK hospitals are overflowing and US hospitals are running out of oxygen. It's a horrific situation. Once a vaccine stops the pandemic (not necessarily the virus) then Covid can become like a seasonal flu illness.

Ok maybe I didn’t make myself very clear, because you’ve completely missed the point I was trying to make.

I’m not comparing it to the flu except for the fact once vaccines are widely available it “should” be dealt with the same way (still around but significantly lower cases every winter).

My point is that cases will actually RISE after the vaccine in Australia. Because they’ve done a reasonable job of keeping the country isolated, the case numbers have been very low compared to other countries. So if we open up with a vaccinated population, how long will it take the political spin masters to stop focusing on COVID?

Plus the public tolerance seems to be incredibly low for ANY cases.....

(I’m not here to debate the COVID vs flu argument, this is about the recovery)

blubak

8th Jan 2021, 22:00

Within 20 minutes of Anna's announcement there was a queue 100m long to get into the local Woolies. Inside the store, people waited in queues winding through the aisles for 45 minutes to check-out, as other shoppers squeezed among them. After an hour the queue outside was 300m long in 2 directions, all standing half a metre apart, with maybe one in fifty people wearing masks. This was repeated at most shopping centres with a Coles/Woolies/Aldi around Brisbane.

It could be argued that the manner of implementation actually dramatically increased the likelihood of the virus spreading; if there was ever a significant danger of it spreading at all.
The public are like sheep,thinking or analysing the situation doesnt come into it.
Also,the politicians should be advising the supermarkets before they make these announcements & get restrictions imposed before the idiots start turning up for 50+ rolls of toilet paper.
These are the very people that then throw blame at whoever they can for causing chaos in the shops & as you say completely disregarding distancing rules etc.
I hate defending politicians but with so many selfish people in our community,they are dammed if they do & dammed if they dont.

Foxxster

8th Jan 2021, 22:06

The two new mutations of Covid have been studied and have been found to be as effective (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/health/pfizer-vaccine-variant-strain-mutation/index.html) on the virus.

For future strains well there’s a solution. Everyone gets vaccinated first and that provides a basic immunity against SARS-COV-2. It any strains appear which have vaccine resistance they should spread slower. But then every year like with the flu shot (maybe the two can be combined) you get a Covid shot with any new Covid strains included. Last year’s flu shot included 4 strains as determined to be the ones most needed by scientists.

Well with the amount of anti-vaxxer nonsense spreading around that would dissuade a lot of people from getting one, so the inducement to get people to take it will be requirements if you want to travel, have a job, attend events, have your kids attend school etc. We already have “no jab no play” and that works fine, I fully support “no jab no job” (except for the immunocompromised) as well.

Precisely. This will involve ongoing vaccinations. However and this is the important point. We do not shut down the economy and state and international borders for the flu. So if / when a mutated strain appears that is resistant to current vaccines then what happens...... oh . Same as happens now ?????? Shut everything until a new, modified vaccine is produced then everyone is vaccinated. How long does that take again.

not anti vaccine. Just making the point that life will not be anywhere near normal for most people unless they are vaccinated. The government doesn’t have to play the bad guy and make it compulsory. Companies and other countries will do that for them. And while the flu vaccine is compulsory for a very few people working in certain industries, I don’t need to show my flu shot passport to travel internationally or go to a concert or a play or work in an office. You can argue for or against elsewhere.

Ticketmaster is working on a plan to verify the vaccination status of concertgoers once a coronavirus vaccine is available. Hoping to recover from the decimating effect the coronavirus pandemic had on the entertainment business and venues, Ticketmaster told Billboard it has been working on a framework to verify vaccination status and COVID-19 results through phones. Billboard notes the plan relies on three parts: Ticketmaster’s digital app, third-party health information companies and vaccine distribution partners such as CVS Minute Clinic and Labcorp.The system, as it is planned out now, will require those who purchase a ticket to verify they have been vaccinated or have tested negative for the coronavirus 24 to 72 hours before the event.

Qantas says it will make vaccinations against COVID-19 "a necessity" for international flyers, according to the airline's CEO, Allan Joyce.

and so on....

Ragnor

8th Jan 2021, 22:09

Fed Gov, SM announcement Tuesday.

To the comment above regarding cases will rise with vaccine I agree, what needs to be made clear and agreed on with states and territory’s what is the acceptable risk for covid along with the vaccine just like Measles, Chicken pox etc neither are 100% and people still get those diseases.

compressor stall

8th Jan 2021, 22:31

P, I don’t need to show my flu shot passport to travel internationally...

you’ve obviously not travelled widely. Plenty of locations demand a particular vaccination certificate. If you arrive without it you get jabbed and detained for 10 days.

In fact the same vaccination is also an entry requirement for Australia if you’ve been in those parts of the world in the past 6 days. You even tick the box on the yellow pax arrival card. But as a AU citizen you won’t get stopped from entering AU.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 22:54

Precisely. This will involve ongoing vaccinations. However and this is the important point. We do not shut down the economy and state and international borders for the flu. So if / when a mutated strain appears that is resistant to current vaccines then what happens...... oh . Same as happens now ?????? Shut everything until a new, modified vaccine is produced then everyone is vaccinated. How long does that take again.

So again Covid at the moment is not like the flu. It has a high reproduction number and exponential spread. This is why all these measures (social distancing, travel restrictions, lockdowns etc) are being taken. To limit the total spread which limits spread to vulnerable populations.

The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.

When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.

I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.

dr dre

8th Jan 2021, 23:04

To back that post up here’s an article which explains the situation about a vaccine eliminating a virus versus controlling a disease and pandemic:

For example, vaccines targeting rotavirus, a common cause of diarrhoea in infants, are only capable of preventing severe disease.

But this has still proven invaluable in controlling the virus.

In the US, there has been almost 90 per cent fewer cases of rotavirus-associated hospital visits since the vaccine was introduced in 2006.

Few vaccines prevent infection. Here is why that's not a problem - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-07/why-few-vaccines-prevent-infection/13037274)

aviation_enthus

8th Jan 2021, 23:20

So again Covid at the moment is not like the flu. It has a high reproduction number and exponential spread. This is why all these measures (social distancing, travel restrictions, lockdowns etc) are being taken. To limit the total spread which limits spread to vulnerable populations.

The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.

When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.

I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.

Ok you’ve made this point multiple times now, but you’re still ignoring the point people are trying to make.

The political narrative in Australia has not/is not preparing the Australian population for a RISE in cases once the vaccine is rolled out. I’m sure this will come, but given the political games being played, there’s plenty more “political fodder” to be made by playing the COVID fear game a it longer.

Australia is an island, so closing international borders and trying to suppress the any virus internally is always going to be the best strategy (with COVID or any future pandemic).

But after scaring the s*** out of people for what will be almost 2 years (by the time the vaccine is widely available), do you honestly think Australians will just ignore a rise in cases around the end of this year??

Green.Dot

8th Jan 2021, 23:28

Well said aviation_enthus

aviation_enthus

8th Jan 2021, 23:29

Look beyond the flightdeck and whether you are at MGH and have a good read of this and see what life is like on the other side of the globe... Hospitals at breaking point... civil unrest in the US is only the beginning... US Generals being asked to withhold Nuclear codes from a Rogue President. Sh*t is seriously messed up on a large scale worthy of a Hollywood script.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/uk-emergency-us-germany-covid-high-daily-deaths/13044376

It would seem there is no happy ground in between “Elimination/Very High Suppression” and “Letting it run its course”. Good luck Brisbane, no one wants to see you follow Melbourne.

Look further than the USA and you’ll find countries living in the “happy ground” in the middle.

The UK has made almost no good decisions. TBH they would have just about been better to do nothing.

The USA is beset by the same political system problems as Australia. The health systems are run by the states, a lot of the health rules are set by the states, yet the federal government controls the international borders. Sound familiar? In my opinion a more localised response in a country the size of the USA makes more sense anyway, outbreaks have not been uniform nation wide.

Somewhere like NZ has one level of government able to make national decisions.

Sweden did “ok” in the first part of last year. By “ok” I mean it’s health system could cope with the ongoing infections.

I’m currently in the UAE. They completely reorganised the health system back in April (while under a very strict lockdown). They created multiple isolation field hospitals for COVID patients, dramatically expand testing and completely reorganised the school systems etc to ensure social distancing and isolation facilities existed. They currently process around 100,000 tests daily (for a population just under 10M). To be honest I’ve been quite impressed with the way they’re dealing with it. There is a good balance between allowing life to continue (schooling/work) while still restricting the spread of the virus (no large gatherings etc).

Green.Dot

8th Jan 2021, 23:50

Good that UAE has struck a balance.

I was more referring to countries that previously appeared to have things in check, (most European countries, Thailand, Japan, etc) and now the wheels are falling off.

gordonfvckingramsay

8th Jan 2021, 23:50

I’m currently in the UAE. They completely reorganised the health system back in April (while under a very strict lockdown). They created multiple isolation field hospitals for COVID patients, dramatically expand testing and completely reorganised the school systems etc to ensure social distancing and isolation facilities existed. They currently process around 100,000 tests daily (for a population just under 10M). To be honest I’ve been quite impressed with the way they’re dealing with it. There is a good balance between allowing life to continue (schooling/work) while still restricting the spread of the virus (no large gatherings etc).

The monarchy (benevolent dictatorship??) in the UAE can do that sort of thing without having to play all the angles politicians have to here. Not that we’ve done a bad job of saving lives in Oz.

aviation_enthus

9th Jan 2021, 00:49

The monarchy (benevolent dictatorship??) in the UAE can do that sort of thing without having to play all the angles politicians have to here. Not that we’ve done a bad job of saving lives in Oz.

Yes that’s the (sometimes) benefit of being not a democracy. Same way China could do things no one else can get away with (dealing with the virus anyway).

UAE do well in a few areas due to this “advantage”. But that’s only because they are blessed with a reasonable leadership that actually want their country to succeed.

Australia hasn’t done a bad job. Never said otherwise. But Australia has the massive advantage of being an island that is relatively self sufficient. The relative advantages of individual countries should dictate strategy. The only countries Australians should be comparing themselves to are Singapore, NZ, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. All are islands (or effectively so in S Korea case). I wouldn’t count the UK in this list as it’s directly connected to France (Chunnel) and is highly dependent on traffic to/from the continent.

That being said I’ll take the problems of a democracy over a benevolent dictatorship long term thanks. They do well when the leadership is good, much harder to change if the leadership is rubbish.

WingNut60

9th Jan 2021, 01:11

Yes that’s the (sometimes) benefit of being not a democracy. Same way China could do things no one else can get away with (dealing with the virus anyway).

UAE do well in a few areas due to this “advantage”. But that’s only because they are blessed with a reasonable leadership that actually want their country to succeed.

Australia hasn’t done a bad job. Never said otherwise. But Australia has the massive advantage of being an island that is relatively self sufficient. The relative advantages of individual countries should dictate strategy. The only countries Australians should be comparing themselves to are Singapore, NZ, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. All are islands (or effectively so in S Korea case). I wouldn’t count the UK in this list as it’s directly connected to France (Chunnel) and is highly dependent on traffic to/from the continent.

That being said I’ll take the problems of a democracy over a benevolent dictatorship long term thanks. They do well when the leadership is good, much harder to change if the leadership is rubbish.
The advantage of being an island nation is the relative ease of controlling international travel.
Controlling ingress of potentially virulent arrivals is the key.
The UK is not exempt from this advantage. And the Chunnel is a poor excuse for not implementing effective movement controls.
Singapore has no Chunnel but it does have a causeway.
And ALL are highly dependent international trade.

In a sense you might even consider Western Australia an island within an island.
We have our Chunnel (the Nullabor highway) but it has been the effective (possibly Draconian and admittedly not perfect) implementation of border controls that has kept WA free of Covid in the wild for the last nine months.

You can't have it both ways.

aviation_enthus

9th Jan 2021, 01:44

The advantage of being an island nation is the relative ease of controlling international travel.
Controlling ingress of potentially virulent arrivals is the key.
The UK is not exempt from this advantage. And the Chunnel is a poor excuse for not implementing effective movement controls.
Singapore has no Chunnel but it does have a causeway.
And ALL are highly dependent international trade.

In a sense you might even consider Western Australia an island within an island.
We have our Chunnel (the Nullabor highway) but it has been the effective (possibly Draconian and admittedly not perfect) implementation of border controls that has kept WA free of Covid in the wild for the last nine months.

You can't have it both ways.

I can’t tell if you’re agreeing or disagreeing....

The UK is a completely different ball game simply because of its dependence on Europe. The Chunnel
is just one example. The other major one is the lack of international borders within the EU (in normal times). Creating a border from scratch is much harder than simply applying a restriction to something that already exists.

Singapore is highly dependent on the southern part of Malaysia BUT they actually have a competent government that can organise a chook raffle.

Like I said, various natural advantages should dictate a national strategy. For example trying to make Germany an “island” within Europe would not have worked.

Australians have be duped into thinking they have a “world class” quarantine system though. The government has been able to hide this fact for so long because we are an island and the huge advantage that comes with that.

dr dre

9th Jan 2021, 02:09

The political narrative in Australia has not/is not preparing the Australian population for a RISE in cases once the vaccine is rolled out. I’m sure this will come, but given the political games being played, there’s plenty more “political fodder” to be made by playing the COVID fear game a it longer.

But after scaring the s*** out of people for what will be almost 2 years (by the time the vaccine is widely available), do you honestly think Australians will just ignore a rise in cases around the end of this year??

OK let's have a think.

We have a vaccine coming that will take the steam out of the health crisis. This vaccine has been developed safely at an unprecedented speed due to the amount of resources put into development. At the start of the pandemic I read best case scenario was end of 2021, so the fact members of the public were receiving Covid vaccinations in December 2020 is a testament to the knowledge and dedication of those medical scientists. It's come so quick that our own government has been able to bring our vaccination plan start date forward to next month, but has probably been caught on the back foot because of it's speed.

In terms of priority amongst all governments now would be containment of current outbreaks in Australia, then reducing risk for inbound international travelers. Once that is done then the vaccine plan comes in to effect, thought first of all needs to be given to which order various groups will receive it, then how it will be distributed, transport, vaccination sites and staff, an knowledge campaign to educate Australians on how to get the vaccine. Along with all the other functions of government at the time. So I can forgive the government if their number one priority right now isn't loudly shouting "Don't worry once we all get vaccinated and there's still some cases!" There's a lot of other higher priorities now, especially since the vaccine rollout is being expedited.

That type of messaging is probably best left towards the end of the vaccine program rather than the start. If people get complacent with messaging that a few cases aren't a problem then the things that are still required at the moment like hygiene, social distancing, app check ins etc may become lax. If the PM just says: "Now we have herd immunity don't worry about low numbers of isolated cases, the consequences of that are not as bad as before when we did not have immunity" at the end of the rollout that's probably enough.

We can see some indication of what future messaging will look like when we get to this stage from this Federal Health Department document:

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/02/australian-health-sector-emergency-response-plan-for-novel-coronavirus-covid-19_2.pdf)

Page 45 under the Standown Stage - Public Messaging heading. Plans that will be implemented include "Advise of the commencement of transition to normal arrangements and how this will be managed", "Coordinate public messaging through media networks", "Notify the public that services will transition to normal arrangements and the reason for this" and "Provide the media with access to information regarding the change of the status of disease spread and the transition of the response". That last point will be crucial to ensure the media don't continue to portray low numbers of cases as a serious health threat as it is now. This messaging is the correct one but as the document states it wouldn't be prudent to start this messaging until well into the vaccine program.

As a side note there's also some information in that document about the future of borders and air travel in a Covid normal world.

It's easy to think that politicians are just playing political games for votes, and in some respects that has been true, but they all have a goal for re-opening as soon as safely possible and there's official policy out there about this if you look hard enough. I know as pilots we would want these politicians to be shouting the end game at the top of their lungs so we have the assurance our industry will be back to normal at a specific time, but that will come within time as this vaccine program is rolled out.

LapSap

9th Jan 2021, 02:14

aviation_enthus

9th Jan 2021, 02:23

OK let's have a think.

We have a vaccine coming that will take the steam out of the health crisis. This vaccine has been developed safely at an unprecedented speed due to the amount of resources put into development. At the start of the pandemic I read best case scenario was end of 2021, so the fact members of the public were receiving Covid vaccinations in December 2020 is a testament to the knowledge and dedication of those medical scientists. It's come so quick that our own government has been able to bring our vaccination plan start date forward to next month, but has probably been caught on the back foot because of it's speed.

In terms of priority amongst all governments now would be containment of current outbreaks in Australia, then reducing risk for inbound international travelers. Once that is done then the vaccine plan comes in to effect, thought first of all needs to be given to which order various groups will receive it, then how it will be distributed, transport, vaccination sites and staff, an knowledge campaign to educate Australians on how to get the vaccine. Along with all the other functions of government at the time. So I can forgive the government if their number one priority right now isn't loudly shouting "Don't worry once we all get vaccinated and there's still some cases!" There's a lot of other higher priorities now, especially since the vaccine rollout is being expedited.

That type of messaging is probably best left towards the end of the vaccine program rather than the start. If people get complacent with messaging that a few cases aren't a problem then the things that are still required at the moment like hygiene, social distancing, app check ins etc may become lax. If the PM just says: "Now we have herd immunity don't worry about low numbers of isolated cases, the consequences of that are not as bad as before when we did not have immunity" at the end of the rollout that's probably enough.

We can see some indication of what future messaging will look like when we get to this stage from this Federal Health Department document:

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/02/australian-health-sector-emergency-response-plan-for-novel-coronavirus-covid-19_2.pdf)

Page 45 under the Standown Stage - Public Messaging heading. Plans that will be implemented include "Advise of the commencement of transition to normal arrangements and how this will be managed", "Coordinate public messaging through media networks", "Notify the public that services will transition to normal arrangements and the reason for this" and "Provide the media with access to information regarding the change of the status of disease spread and the transition of the response". That last point will be crucial to ensure the media don't continue to portray low numbers of cases as a serious health threat as it is now. This messaging is the correct one but as the document states it wouldn't be prudent to start this messaging until well into the vaccine program.

As a side note there's also some information in that document about the future of borders and air travel in a Covid normal world.

It's easy to think that politicians are just playing political games for votes, and in some respects that has been true, but they all have a goal for re-opening as soon as safely possible and there's official policy out there about this if you look hard enough. I know as pilots we would want these politicians to be shouting the end game at the top of their lungs so we have the assurance our industry will be back to normal at a specific time, but that will come within time as this vaccine program is rolled out.

Thanks for the well thought out reply. Doesn’t happen to much on here! Hahaha!

I agree the messaging should NOT change now. Nothing has changed as far as the virus goes (containment is key). Nothing will change until the vaccination levels are well past 70% I would imagine.

It’s the political games that worry me I guess. While some decisions are made for public health reasons, the fact remains, an “external” crisis is always a vote winner for an incumbent government. People don’t like to change teams in an emergency/pandemic/wartime.

compressor stall

9th Jan 2021, 02:49

Trying to figure out the logic raised by the latest case of a UK arrival to Melbourne travelling to QLD.
Seems you are better off arriving and testing positive ASAP.
That way you go straight into isolation (as opposed to quarantine) for 10 days and are allowed out.
Meanwhile the rest of us mugs who worked hard to stay Covid free and returned, sit there for 14days .
How does that work??!!
Health Minister says that’s completely in line with international and domestic protocols.
Say what???!
It’s really not that hard. My 11yo read about it and explained it to his brother.

very very simply

From exposure day you may develop COVID and become infectious at any point in the next 14 days.

From when symptoms develop and you are tested as positive you only remain infectious for up to ten days and have been symptom free for three.

So diagnosed day 1, symptoms for a week. Three day buffer. Out on day 10 (that’s 7+3)

The reason why they don’t test on exit to date is that you can still test positive for weeks but you are no longer infectious. Won’t achieve much - but might with the variants.

LapSap

9th Jan 2021, 03:05

It’s really not that hard. My 11yo read about it and explained it to his brother.

very very simply

From exposure day you may develop COVID and become infectious at any point in the next 14 days.

From when symptoms develop and you are tested as positive you only remain infectious for up to ten days and have been symptom free for three.

So diagnosed day 1, symptoms for a week. Three day buffer. Out on day 10 (that’s 7+3)

The reason why they don’t test on exit to date is that you can still test positive for weeks but you are no longer infectious. Won’t achieve much - but might with the variants.

Thanks for the reply.
I only returned about a month ago but until then at least, nobody was tested in the hotel until day 10 at the earliest. Provided negative, out on day 14.
How do you go about getting tested on Day 1?
Don’t tell me- had a cough and sniffles while filling in the BF form?
Check with your 11 yo would you?

compressor stall

9th Jan 2021, 03:11

Thanks for the reply.
I only returned about a month ago but until then at least, nobody was tested in the hotel until day 10 at the earliest. Provided negative, out on day 14.
How do you go about getting tested on Day 1?
Check with your 11 yo would you?
If you are symptomatic you will be. (Although YMMV from state to state on triggers for that).

Global Aviator

9th Jan 2021, 06:22

neville_nobody

9th Jan 2021, 06:39

The entire Australian problem has always been the staff of the Hotel spreading it through the community, not the actual occupants themselves.

aviation_enthus

9th Jan 2021, 06:46

Q hotel when I did it -

Day 1 - Covid test (second day in hotel as arrival day was day ZERO. Remember this well as 1st ever C test),
Day 12 (I think but can’t remember, result day 13, free next day?) - Covid test.

Obviously negative on second one and set free, I chose to leave the Q hotel very early, had to book the release time.

My additional observations no way one could have escaped without being seen, all contacts sticky PPE, anything leaving the room put in plastic bags.

Cant see why hotel Q does not work nationwide, it should if done right and not have the ridiculous caps.

Yes it should work. This is the fact that annoys me the most, the current setup is not good enough for a country that is aiming zero cases.

Testing on departure:
- should have been implemented at least 6 months ago when widespread testing became available. I know it doesn’t guarantee no positive cases would arrive, but what it does do is provide a “first stage” filter to the system. At the very least it would reduce the number of positive cases in quarantine in Australia.

Quarantine hotels for flight crew:
- again this MASSIVE loophole should have been closed back in April at the latest. I think every single capital city airport has a large hotel either at the airport or nearby. This should have been allocated for flight crew only and posted with some sort of security force.

Testing for quarantine hotel staff and security:
- as the system was developed, anyone with a second job should have been removed from the staff. Anyone living with vulnerable people should have been removed from the staff. Testing should have been every 2-3 days (not weekly). Basically create a full time, reasonably paid, semi isolated pool of staff that reduces (not able to be eliminated) the risk of transfer to the wider public. This includes the transport drivers to/from hotels.

Masks and social distancing:
- I’ve been to Australia multiple times since March and I’ve got to say I’ve been surprised how relaxed some of the border staff have been greeting international flights. Regularly saw no masks, no clear plastic barriers on desks, etc.

As for the constant demands to move it from large CBD hotels.... Personally I don’t see the issue, IF it’s run properly as I’ve described above. Reality is, building a “detention centre” next to Alice Springs wouldn’t work. It would cost far more money than they currently spend, the union workers wouldn’t have even started construction yet and it’s impractical from and airline point of view (what about the freight???). So using large, empty buildings, close to respective airports, with a capable pool of staff nearby, makes sense for what is supposed to be a time limited requirement.

Basically what I’m saying is, you want to isolate from the rest of the world, do it properly!!! All these loopholes and weak areas have taken almost 10 months to fix.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

9th Jan 2021, 11:40

Testing on departure:
- should have been implemented at least 6 months ago when widespread testing became available. I know it doesn’t guarantee no positive cases would arrive, but what it does do is provide a “first stage” filter to the system. At the very least it would reduce the number of positive cases in quarantine in Australia.
So what happens to the people who show a negative test prior to departure? Do they get released into the wild on arrival as if it was a Green flight? It would be a hard sell to expect them to pay for 14 days of quarantine when they just proved to you they don't have the disease. If it doesn't guarantee that no cases will get in, you may as well just take all the ones coming back and quarantine them anyway. In the great scheme of things, the number of positive cases in quarantine vs the number of people rotating through quarantine is 4/5ths of f*ck all (in QLD currently 21 out of 3975 people in active quarantine). Make the system that contains them work, and welcome back!

surprised how relaxed some of the border staff have been greeting international flights. Regularly saw no masks, no clear plastic barriers on desks, etc.
And yet with the hundreds of thousands of returned travelers since March, practically no Border staff have contracted COVID, even with their lax protocols. Funny that.

Global Aviator

9th Jan 2021, 20:17

All of the QF repatriation flights required a negative Covid test prior to departing. This doesn’t stop
cases popping up in Q as we know. That is what Q is being used for.

Bend alot

9th Jan 2021, 20:29

So what happens to the people who show a negative test prior to departure? Do they get released into the wild on arrival as if it was a Green flight? It would be a hard sell to expect them to pay for 14 days of quarantine when they just proved to you they don't have the disease. If it doesn't guarantee that no cases will get in, you may as well just take all the ones coming back and quarantine them anyway. In the great scheme of things, the number of positive cases in quarantine vs the number of people rotating through quarantine is 4/5ths of f*ck all (in QLD currently 21 out of 3975 people in active quarantine). Make the system that contains them work, and welcome back!

And yet with the hundreds of thousands of returned travelers since March, practically no Border staff have contracted COVID, even with their lax protocols. Funny that.
If you read it again, you will find it is the 1st stage filter.
Not a free green card into the wild.

Very few if any details are released other than ground zero cases in a spread/cluster only numbers - other than the number of health care workers that have been infected.

blubak

9th Jan 2021, 20:43

All of the QF repatriation flights required a negative Covid test prior to departing. This doesn’t stop
cases popping up in Q as we know. That is what Q is being used for.
6 new cases from quarantine in victorian numbers this morning although they did say yesterday to expect this due to 11th day tests etc.
Although its a small number it shows that overseas arrivals are still bringing it into the country & for now at least (& who knows how long) the arrival numbers are going to have to be strictly controlled & placed in quarantine.
Its not good for those waiting to come back but unfortunately with what we are dealing with nothing can or will change if we want our current covid normal freedoms to continue.

Ragnor

9th Jan 2021, 21:03

It would be a hard sell to expect them to pay for 14 days of quarantine when they just proved to you they don't have the disease.

.

Not hard at all. They want to come home or not those are the rules I am very happy they have halved the inbound and tightened quarantine process. Its about time I say.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

9th Jan 2021, 23:38

Tightening the quarantine process is the only worthwhile improvement, because that's where the system is failing, not the actual arriving and quarantining. It's not the returning passengers fault the various State Governments can't manage a quarantine process

Very few if any details are released other than ground zero cases in a spread/cluster only numbers
There's a reason for that. Who will look bad?

compressor stall

10th Jan 2021, 00:20

TurningTheSpanners

10th Jan 2021, 00:23

... it’s good to see they are stepping up the rollout of the only thing that’ll bring this pandemic and the disruption to our industry under control.

Now if they aimed to have enough immunised prior to winter to allow lifting of restrictions that would be ideal.
EDIT

And upon further reading they’re aiming for 4 million Australians immunised by end of March. So perhaps 15 million by start of winter? Maybe enough for herd immunity.

Everyone seems to be focusing on the number of people who will be vaccinated "straight away".

As I read the tea leaves the governments plan is to vaccinate the "vulnerable" and "essential workers" first.

So the elderly in the community and the Nanas in the nursing homes and the let's be honest, the low-paid carers for the elderly, as well as the nurses and doctors get the first say million or so, or more or less, vaccinations.

How many of those were actually going to be overseas travelers anyhow?

I suggest that the first large percentage of vaccinations will do nothing to very little to stimulate overseas travel?

TurningTheSpanners

brokenagain

10th Jan 2021, 01:16

So the elderly in the community and the Nanas in the nursing homes and the let's be honest, the low-paid carers for the elderly, as well as the nurses and doctors get the first say million or so, or more or less, vaccinations.

By vaccinating the elderly and others who make up the majority of people who end up seriously ill and in hospital, you’re reducing the chances of the health system from being overwhelmed. Once that occurs, life can go start to go back to some sort of ‘new normal’. COVID-19 will never be erradicatdd, and will end up being just another flu strain in circulation. The vaccine won’t end COVID, but hopefully it will end the pandemic.

TurningTheSpanners

10th Jan 2021, 01:48

By vaccinating the elderly and others who make up the majority of people who end up seriously ill and in hospital, you’re reducing the chances of the health system from being overwhelmed..

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear in my previous post.

What I'm trying to say is that say, pick a number, any number, when the first one million people are vaccinated in Australia that doesn't mean that there will be one million people queuing up at the check-in counters.

A lot (vast majority?) of the first vaccinated wouldn't have flown overseas anyhow so again, making stuff up, let's say it takes a few months to get that first million vaccines distributed the vast majority of potential fliers won't start getting their jabs until, say, maybe June.

TurningTheSpanners

JustinHeywood

10th Jan 2021, 02:15

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear in my previous post.

What I'm trying to say is that say, pick a number, any number, when the first one million people are vaccinated in Australia that doesn't mean that there will be one million people queuing up at the check-in counters.

A lot (vast majority?) of the first vaccinated wouldn't have flown overseas anyhow so again, making stuff up, let's say it takes a few months to get that first million vaccines distributed the vast majority of potential fliers won't start getting their jabs until, say, maybe June.

TurningTheSpanners

I'm not sure of your point here, spanner. Surely the obvious thing is to vaccinate the most at risk first, no?
Are you proposing some other plan?

TurningTheSpanners

10th Jan 2021, 02:34

I'm not sure of your point here, spanner. Surely the obvious thing is to vaccinate the most at risk first, no?
Are you proposing some other plan?

No, Simply pointing out that WHEN VACCINATIONS FIRST START the "most at risk" and "front-line workers" will RIGHTLY SO be getting the jab first.

So, when one million people have been vaccinated that DOES NOT MEAN one million people will turn up at the check-in counters because they weren't going to fly anyhow.

I'm saying that just because one million people (or whatever number it is) have been vaccinated by July 1 there won't be the DEMAND for one million seats on July 1.

TurningTheSpanners.

rattman

10th Jan 2021, 02:56

I'm not sure of your point here, spanner. Surely the obvious thing is to vaccinate the most at risk first, no?
Are you proposing some other plan?
Yep does not get the point, travel has a grand total of ZERO relevence to the vacination schedule. Because prisoners and guards are one of the first groups to get it and the majority of them will not travel. Prison (guards and inmates) are a very at risk / difficult group if covid gets in, Elderly and their carers and front line medical services are all in the first group.

Foxxster

10th Jan 2021, 03:43

you’ve obviously not travelled widely. Plenty of locations demand a particular vaccination certificate. If you arrive without it you get jabbed and detained for 10 days.

In fact the same vaccination is also an entry requirement for Australia if you’ve been in those parts of the world in the past 6 days. You even tick the box on the yellow pax arrival card. But as a AU citizen you won’t get stopped from entering AU.

well only about 45 countries. Never ever asked for any proof of vaccines. I am sure as you say there are such countries.

however my point remains.

Things will be very different now. You will not be able to travel to ANY country, or indeed as per Qantas and other airlines will follow suit, to even get on the aircraft without your COVID passport.

which combined with Ticketmaster working on making you prove you have the vaccine before you buy tickets to any event and employers making noises about requiring it and so on, it makes the vaccine de facto compulsory.

which is why the federal government doesn’t need to lose any political capital by making it compulsory because they know it already will be . Unless of course you don’t work, never go out or travel internationally . Which these days is basically nobody. I mean anyone can afford a Jetstar ticket to Bali ...

compressor stall

10th Jan 2021, 04:55

Global Aviator

10th Jan 2021, 05:07

That’s one outcome that is quite plausible and, as per my point, the precedent has been set with yellow fever, albeit for “just” country access.

My family and I have had to produce said certificate for three countries for entry.

Yep and if my memory services me correctly which I frequently wonder..... Before heading up into deep Africa I had to have the yellow fever proof. Had that card in my passport until it expired.

Whatever is required to get international (and domestic) travel reliable bring it on.

The new whatever.

blubak

10th Jan 2021, 05:58

Not hard at all. They want to come home or not those are the rules I am very happy they have halved the inbound and tightened quarantine process. Its about time I say.
Unfortunately for the people who want to come home the rules are the rules as suggested,its not a matter of being self righteous or having a dont care attitude towards the people stranded,its really now a matter of managing & protecting what we have without going the high risk scenario.
There are always going to be people who get caught up in a border closure issue & reality now is nothing is going to change whilst the overseas issues compound day by day.

Turnleft080

11th Jan 2021, 11:58

So again Covid at the moment is not like the flu. It has a high reproduction number and exponential spread. This is why all these measures (social distancing, travel restrictions, lockdowns etc) are being taken. To limit the total spread which limits spread to vulnerable populations.

The reason why governments aim for total elimination is because if the population is not immunised then any outbreak has a high chance of becoming uncontrolled leading to the disasters we can see in other parts of the world at the moment. At one point Italy, Brazil, UK, USA all had one case, but even with lockdowns and restrictions the virus has caused mass amounts of chaos. Australian governments have decided to not let the country get to that stage of collapse.

When we have a vaccine that eliminates the potential for overcrowding of hospitals, wiping out of vulnerable populations, mass spread, etc then the pandemic is over. The virus remains, and may flare up from time to time, but the pandemic is over.

I’ll repeat, the vaccine is about stopping a pandemic, not a virus.
So another words the vaccine should be taken by all the baby boomers, because they are subject to dying with covid as the stats show 60s+.
All the millennials will catch it have the flu symptom recover because their immune systems are stronger.
Which leaves you with the virus which can be managed by natures minerals and supplements. Did you see the news today you
can eliminate type 2 diabetes by altering your diet. Seriously, WOW, OMG then why did you invent that stupid food pyramid 40 years ago, all its done is
increase heart disease, cancers, obesity, diabetes etc. Then they take the fat out of most products call it low fat and all that does is
make you feel more hungary.
The western diet has well and truly been found out now that a little micro golf ball with snail tentacles can reap havoc.
I have never called it junk food I've called it dirty food which gives you dirty blood.

aviation_enthus

11th Jan 2021, 14:50

Unfortunately for the people who want to come home the rules are the rules as suggested,its not a matter of being self righteous or having a dont care attitude towards the people stranded,its really now a matter of managing & protecting what we have without going the high risk scenario.
There are always going to be people who get caught up in a border closure issue & reality now is nothing is going to change whilst the overseas issues compound day by day.

I’ll agree with you on one thing, there’s no need to “sell” any requirements to returning Australians. We all understand quarantine is required. We can all accept the fact it now costs $$$ as well. So requiring extra testing before departure is no big deal. If you want to come home, you’ll do what’s required.

However......

The problem lies with the way the system was brought in and now continues to operate:

- The short notice given for the initial application of the cap created a HUGE backlog of people that were continuously bumped off flights multiple times for months and months. I can accept this is a short term stress to deal with to create a long term solution. BUT what I don’t expect is to see the same issue being created 6 months later.

- Now the cap has been in place for a while with relatively stable numbers, bookings have stabilised and it’s pretty rare to be bumped off a flight.

- So then the REDUCTION in the cap has done the same thing as the initial introduction of the cap. Anyone unfortunate enough to be arriving in Australia in the next 4 weeks is no facing the risk they’ll loose their booking.

In fact on one of the FB groups I follow a lady had just that experience. And guess when she was offered an alternative flight???

MAY!!! 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

So now after almost a year of dealing with COVID we find Australians stranded overseas without jobs, money, accommodation, visas, etc and facing the prospect of waiting months for their rebooked flight. All because of a poorly thought out, knee jerk policy change.

So you can say “it’s not about having a don’t care attitude” all you like. But the policy as it currently stands does exactly that. It looks “good enough” to those of you on the correct side of the border, but continues to give the middle finger to those of us on the wrong side.

The Australian quarantine system could be so much better. Both for its main purpose (keeping the virus out) and for the reason it exists (to allow access to Australia). There is two levels of government to blame for that.

The one thing I’m sick and tired of reading, is how it’s the fault of the people that have to use it. AUSTRALIAN CITIZENS TRYING TO COME HOME!!!!

Sunfish

11th Jan 2021, 16:50

aviation_enthus

11th Jan 2021, 17:37

Turnleft: It's not just "Baby Boomers" who die from Covid and the long term health effects on all organs appear to be ominous. You do not want to get infected with this virus if you value your class 1 medical certificate.

Aviation Enthusiast: As I have repeatedly said, this is a war that is being fought literally hour by hour. Of course the system isn't perfect, its been cobbled together on the run and changed as circumstances change as it should be. Your outrage is totally misplaced.

For example, if (God forbid) a mutation makes covid as deadly as ebola tomorrow then NOBODY is getting into Australia at all! Tell your lady FB friend she is lucky she has a booking for May and to be prepared to respond within a few hours if that situation changes.

This is why smart international travellers always have some "get home money" in cash or a spare open dated ticket. There are also sorts of situations where you may need to GTF out real quick. COvid was one of them.

Sunfish it has been clear throughout all your posts that you have a clear fear of COVID. That clearly clouds your viewpoint on the entire subject. So forgive me if I don’t agree that my “outrage is misplaced”.

There is a virus that spreads. How we react to it is set by the various governments and health departments around the world. As it should be.

But if you are going to sit back and respond to legitimate criticism of the system by claiming it “changes hour by hour” and “tell your FB lady friend she is lucky”, mate you can go ........

I try to offer useful comments on this thread explaining useful processes used by other comparable countries around the world to point out that perhaps a policy “cobbled together on the run” should be better after 11 months. Why? Because I think Australia can do better. Because I see directly the result of friends being affected by these changes.

It’s been over a year since COVID appeared. It’s been over 10 months since the Australian border was closed. It’ll probably be close to the end of 2021 at the earliest before any border restrictions are lifted. So because this has been going on so long already, this policy should get better and more efficient with time right? There should be improvements in the system that make it work better, not just ramping up testing of cleaning staff. Instead Australia only ever seems to go in one direction, harsher and more bureaucratic responses.

I’m not and never have argued to open the border (or even to get rid of quarantine). But neither will I sit back when people such as yourself blow off legitimate criticism or improvements to a system that is creating unnecessary hardship and stress for thousands of Aussies. Just like you’re all pissed when the states give no notice border closures.....

As for an “open ticket”. I’m pretty sure that would have been a good idea if you live in a 3rd world war zone, not sure most people would think that’s necessary living somewhere like the UK or USA. But like I said, how is this a useful suggestion when the pandemic will probably end up lasting at least 2 years?? Or when the ENTIRE WORLD closed down in April?? That sort of tip only works when it’s one country with problems.....

Sunfish

11th Jan 2021, 20:13

Aviation Enthusiast: So because this has been going on so long already, this policy should get better and more efficient with time right? There should be improvements in the system that make it work better, not just ramping up testing of cleaning staff. Instead Australia only ever seems to go in one direction, harsher and more bureaucratic responses.

Thank you for your reply. In answer to your question I would say: "Yes but". If the threat from Covid was static and constant and our local circumstances were constant then of course you are right. Our bureaucratic systems (Noun not adjective) would be expected to get considerably better over time.

However that is not the case at all. We are shooting at a moving target. The "Right" answer changes literally hour by hour. I would list the following non exhaustive list of factors to be considered:

- Our knowledge of the virus behaviour and effects is incomplete. In addition the virus is mutating, the latest South African and British strains being a major cause of concern so we are working with a snapshot of what we think this virus is like that changes with every new scientific paper. For example the latest advice (weekend) is that the current vaccines should be effective against mutations. If that were not the case our entire posture would have to be changed this week.

- our circumstances are changing. SIx months ago Victoria was cactus, now its NSW and Queensland's turn. Our response has to follow the local circumstances and change when they do.

Mistakes will be made. We must accept that. The alternative is to double and triple check every action in advance which means our response will take weeks or months and thus be useless since the rules are changing day by day.

We must accept errors. We must accept that actions will conflict with each other as 60,000 Victorians found out the hard way. To do otherwise will slow our response and make it useless.

I find it odd that some pilots are troubled by this situation. After all, once you are in the air you must make do with what you have and change your plans as circumstances change. To be a pilot needs a flexible mind set. Our public health people are having to apply this same sort of flexibility daily.

itsnotthatbloodyhard

11th Jan 2021, 21:42

SIx months ago Victoria was cactus, now its NSW and Queensland's turn.

NSW is currently experiencing around zero to five cases of community transmission daily, with no upward trend. QLD similarly bugger-all. You’re suggesting this means they’re now ‘cactus’ in the way Victoria was, back when you had 700+ cases daily?

WingNut60

11th Jan 2021, 23:24

Joker89

12th Jan 2021, 00:06

Guess all those greedy expats should have quit their jobs and come back as soon as possible to go on the dole. Instead they tried to hold onto their jobs and avoid becoming yet another strain on the Australian welfare system. Now made redundant they have no choice than to spend ridiculous amounts of money on repatriation and quarantine.

instead of just pouring money into welfare how about create some new jobs with extra quarantine spaces. It works fine in many other countries without ridiculously low caps on arrivals. No need for tent cities in the desert.

The “you were told to come home argument” is crap

Turnleft080

12th Jan 2021, 00:06

A tent city outside of Curtin AFB or Learmonth, surrounded by security fencing and guards would clear the backlog out of Europe in just a few weeks provided the repatriates were prepared to camp out for 14 days.
But they're not!

They ALL want either the Sheraton or to go home unimpeded so that they can all diligently follow their quarantine restrictions for 14 days with just the occasional (say 6 times per day) visit to a leagues club or a disco.
Unfortunately, the Sheraton doesn't have 40,000 spare rooms.

Sorry. But they'll just have to suck it up.
That would be awesome. Imagine coming out of cold Europe and going camping for 14 days up north in the tropics. Just don't mention quarantine. I can picture a camp fire in the middle
of the tent enclosure all the kids melting marshmallows the blokes cooking roo on the spit. Add some wifi a nice dandy holiday.

WingNut60

12th Jan 2021, 00:53

That would be awesome. Imagine coming out of cold Europe and going camping for 14 days up north in the tropics. Just don't mention quarantine. I can picture a camp fire in the middle
of the tent enclosure all the kids melting marshmallows the blokes cooking roo on the spit. Add some wifi a nice dandy holiday.
If I really wanted or needed to come home, I would do it at the drop of a hat.
Wife, kids and all.
It's 2 weeks, for X's sake.

But then, I'm a boomer.

aviation_enthus

12th Jan 2021, 00:57

A tent city outside of Curtin AFB or Learmonth, surrounded by security fencing and guards would clear the backlog out of Europe in just a few weeks provided the repatriates were prepared to camp out for 14 days.
But they're not!

They ALL want either the Sheraton or to go home unimpeded so that they can all diligently follow their quarantine restrictions for 14 days with just the occasional (say 6 times per day) visit to a leagues club or a disco.
Unfortunately, the Sheraton doesn't have 40,000 spare rooms.

Sorry. But they'll just have to suck it up.

“They ALL want the Sheraton” ?????

Haha keep talking to yourself, clearly you have no idea!

This isn’t even an option, so I don’t know why you keep going on about it.

If someone can escape quarantine to “go to the leagues club” that means the quarantine system isn’t good enough. Because there will always be idiots who try to do the wrong thing. Same as normal society, kind of why we have police and jails...

aviation_enthus

12th Jan 2021, 01:06

Aviation Enthusiast:

Thank you for your reply. In answer to your question I would say: "Yes but". If the threat from Covid was static and constant and our local circumstances were constant then of course you are right. Our bureaucratic systems (Noun not adjective) would be expected to get considerably better over time.

However that is not the case at all. We are shooting at a moving target. The "Right" answer changes literally hour by hour. I would list the following non exhaustive list of factors to be considered:

- Our knowledge of the virus behaviour and effects is incomplete. In addition the virus is mutating, the latest South African and British strains being a major cause of concern so we are working with a snapshot of what we think this virus is like that changes with every new scientific paper. For example the latest advice (weekend) is that the current vaccines should be effective against mutations. If that were not the case our entire posture would have to be changed this week.

- our circumstances are changing. SIx months ago Victoria was cactus, now its NSW and Queensland's turn. Our response has to follow the local circumstances and change when they do.

Mistakes will be made. We must accept that. The alternative is to double and triple check every action in advance which means our response will take weeks or months and thus be useless since the rules are changing day by day.

We must accept errors. We must accept that actions will conflict with each other as 60,000 Victorians found out the hard way. To do otherwise will slow our response and make it useless.

I find it odd that some pilots are troubled by this situation. After all, once you are in the air you must make do with what you have and change your plans as circumstances change. To be a pilot needs a flexible mind set. Our public health people are having to apply this same sort of flexibility daily.

NSW and QLD are not cactus. Victoria needed to be locked down because the other elements (quarantine and contact tracing) had failed so badly Dan was left with no other option. So far NSW and QLD seem to be doing a reasonable job containing it. A bit of perspective is required.

The massive flow on effect to an already heavily restricted arrivals cap, means any changes should be for major reasons. Because delaying someone and their family by 5 months is not ok. I don’t think anyone with no visa, job, house and running out of money would consider themselves “lucky” to be given this news. The current outbreak of the “believed to be” more contagious variant, does not warrant this reaction in my opinion. Because of the effect it will have on arrivals....

I can accept things change as we learn more about the virus. So they should as required. But this is not a statement to hide behind when decision that are being made have serious consequences for the people affected. Especially when better policy options are available (and explained to you here).

brokenagain

12th Jan 2021, 01:30

The current outbreak of the “believed to be” more contagious variant

So contagious that the only person that the Brisbane cleaner passed it onto was someone living her.

dr dre

12th Jan 2021, 02:25

So contagious that the only person that the Brisbane cleaner passed it onto was someone living her.

A testament to the cleaner and their partner for socially distancing and avoiding large amounts of contact whilst working in a high risk job.

The B117 strain IS more transmissible, that’s been scientifically proven. You can understand why all jurisdictions are very keen to not let this escape as it can cause serious issues over “regular” SARS-COV-2:

Southend Hospital oxygen supply reaches 'critical' situation (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-essex-55615591)

Dannyboy39

12th Jan 2021, 05:20

There’s actually talk in the U.K. today about increasing social distancing to three metres because it is that contagious.

With all of the talk about baby boomers - some numbers. In the late Spring, the U.K. Chief Scientific Officer said that he believed there would be around 20,000 deaths and that would be a “good result.” At the end of 2020, we had around 78,000 deaths.

Out of that 78,000, only about 400 deaths came in those under the age of 50 and only 4000 under the age of 60. 18% of deaths are over the age of 90.

These are clearly a tragedy however I’d expect the vast majority of the western elderly population to have been vaccinated by late Spring and the death numbers going through the floor.

Ragnor

12th Jan 2021, 06:28

McGoose must feel like a real goose today, Vic and QLD distancing themselves from his comments he made against NSW yesterday. Could it be Vic and QLD will have a different approach moving forward and aligning themself to what was originally agreed in national cabinet.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

12th Jan 2021, 07:30

Extract from QLD "Mandatory Face Masks Direction"Face mask requirements on domestic commercial flights

A person on a domestic commercial aircraft must wear a face mask at all times on the aircraft while:

the aircraft is located at a Queensland airport, including when the aircraft is landing at, or taking off from, the airport; or

the aircraft is flying in Queensland airspace.

Does Queensland even have airspace? Or is all airspace Federal? You can take your mask off when you fly across the border out of the state? What difference does that make to the conditions in the cabin?

compressor stall

12th Jan 2021, 07:42

Small hint - if you're reading legal stuff, if it's in bold, that term should be defined in the document.

If you scroll to the bottom and still awake, you will see that Queensland Airspace is defined for the purposes of the direction as the airspace located over Queensland. Pretty clear cut it would seem.

WingNut60

12th Jan 2021, 08:12

....................and aligning themself to what was originally agreed in national cabinet.
I'm very interested to read what that agreement says.
Can you please post a link.

Icarus2001

12th Jan 2021, 08:15

If you scroll to the bottom and still awake, you will see that Queensland Airspace is defined for the purposes of the direction as the airspace located over Queensland. Pretty clear cut it would seem. Yes but there is the small matter of jurisdiction. A state government can write all the aviation rules they want but many are not "legal" and so become un-enforceable.

One that springs to mind was a certain state trying to restrict aircraft to fly over wilderness areas above 5000 feet agl. They had no joy with that.

Not that that has stopped both State and Federal governments bending the constitution during the Covid pandemic.

itsnotthatbloodyhard

12th Jan 2021, 08:18

you will see that Queensland Airspace is defined for the purposes of the direction as the airspace located over Queensland. Pretty clear cut it would seem.

Yes, but does the Queensland government have any authority to dictate what happens in the airspace above Queensland? Genuine question, not having a go at anyone. Just that I’m aware of CASA, Airservices Australia, ICAO, etc, as organisations that might influence what happens when flying around in Australian airspace - but individual state governments?? Any thoughts, PPrune lawyers?

WingNut60

12th Jan 2021, 08:18

..........
Not that that has stopped both State and Federal governments bending the constitution during the Covid pandemic.
If you are referring to border closures then that matter has already been referred to the High Court and found to be allowable under the constitution.
If you need confirmation, just ask Clive Palmer. Or ScoMo.

KRviator

12th Jan 2021, 08:27

NSW is the same...with the same sort of ridiculous language. Got an email today from the local Airport Manager, the aero club hangar is a non-mask zone, but the club room, toilet and *cough* "Terminal" are must-be-masked zones.

But where is Queensland itself defined? If you are landing RWY19 at Brisbane, can you have it off while you're over the Bay and put it back on again when you cross the mangroves? Does Anna-Stayaway's rule extend to the 12NM limit?

The Minister directs that—
(a) a person in Greater Sydney must wear a fitted face covering at all times when the person is at a public transport waiting area or in a vehicle, including a train or vessel, being used to provide a public transport service, including a taxi service, rideshare service or community transport service, and
(b) a person in an indoor area of a NSW airport, including a passenger waiting area, must wear a fitted face covering at all times when in the area, and
(c) a person on a domestic commercial aircraft that lands at, or takes off from, a NSW airport must wear a fitted face covering at all times when on the aircraft while—
(i) the aircraft is located at a NSW airport, including when the aircraft is landing at, or taking off from, the airport, or
(ii) the aircraft is flying in NSW airspace.

I can see it now, "QLink 24Delta, Climb & Maintain Flight Level 250" -> "MMm umt hoo fi ze, Q unk ta" -> "Qlink 24Delta say again" -> "I've taken the stupid mask off, Climb Maintain Flight Level 250, QLink 24Delta"..."QLink 24Delta, possible pilot deviation, advise ready to copy"

I had to wear the mask during my last flight review. It lasted until about the crosswind turn before I had to take it off to stop fogging up my glasses.

compressor stall

12th Jan 2021, 08:32

Just like the Norwegian blue, jurisdiction "don't enter into it."

The state of Queensland is not controlling the airspace in any way or aircraft access. It is just saying that if you are in an aircraft (with some caveats) in an area geographic area (airspace), you must wear a mask.

I had to wear the mask during my last flight review. It lasted until about the crosswind turn before I had to take it off to stop fogging up my glasses.

FWIW masks are expressly forbidden by Airbus in the cockpit as they are a safety hazard for that very reason, as well as other HF aspects of communication cues. Back locally, if you care to read the relevant Directions, both NSW and QLD address this issue stating that pilots don't need to wear masks in the cockpit.... but don't let that stop the hypotheticals.

There are plenty of faults and gaping holes in rushed legislation in these COVID times, but that's not one of them....

And as for the off shore limits, to be fair, even CASA struggle with that one....

IWannaFly2020

12th Jan 2021, 10:37

Howard Springs to double capacity next month, probably a trial to see if they can handle even more. Could be the quarantine solution hopefully for the country. Get the quarantine out of the cities.

Fliegenmong

12th Jan 2021, 10:39

From OOL Then....masks on at gate, off during taxy to line up on 32, on again at around about the 17/35 intersection off again 5 mins later heading South?

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

12th Jan 2021, 11:01

No, because the NSW legislation (that you as a pax are unaware of) states you will wear one while in their airspace too.
It would have made more sense if they had just said you must wear one while in flight between two Queensland airports. It makes absolutely no sense to imply you have to wear one to the border then you can take it off. Does the crew now have to announce "We are crossing the border, put your masks on/take your masks off" now?

aviation_enthus

12th Jan 2021, 11:04

Talk about trying “Australianise” the mask rules!!!

Just wear it through the terminal and before the flight deck door is shut. Then take it off!! FFS does this really require multiple posts and hand wringing to figure out?

Otherwise wear one walking around in public areas.

Not that hard really.....

601

12th Jan 2021, 12:15

Yes, but does the Queensland government have any authority to dictate what happens in the airspace above Queensland?

I don't believe that the Qld Govt is dictating what happens in the airspace above Qld but what is required in an aircraft flying over Qld.
Al this bovine excreta about jurisdictions is just cr@p.

To hear the stupid questions on local radio this morning about wearing a mask in a gym.
Makes one wonder is there any common sense left or grey matter between the ears.

(Fx2)S just wear the bl00dy thing.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

12th Jan 2021, 12:54

I don't believe that the Qld Govt is dictating what happens in the airspace above Qld but what is required in an aircraft flying over Qld.
Aren't they the same thing? And can they? Is an aircraft in flight subject to the laws of whatever landmass happens to be under it at the time?

WingNut60

12th Jan 2021, 13:55

Aren't they the same thing? And can they? Is an aircraft in flight subject to the laws of whatever landmass happens to be under it at the time?
I seem to remember that Alberta used to mandate prohibition of alcohol consumption for flights passing over the province.

blubak

12th Jan 2021, 19:23

I don't believe that the Qld Govt is dictating what happens in the airspace above Qld but what is required in an aircraft flying over Qld.
Al this bovine excreta about jurisdictions is just cr@p.

To hear the stupid questions on local radio this morning about wearing a mask in a gym.
Makes one wonder is there any common sense left or grey matter between the ears.

(Fx2)S just wear the bl00dy thing.
It seems like there are people out there who have nothing better to do than call radio stations with stupid questions.
Like you say,is it really that hard to work out what is required!

Turnleft080

12th Jan 2021, 20:23

It seems like there are people out there who have nothing better to do than call radio stations with stupid questions.
Like you say,is it really that hard to work out what is required!
Speaking of radio stations and airspace, heard a story last night that a Queensland lady needed to get to Perth because her mum was on her death bed.
She boarded the BNE-PER flight and half way through it WA closed the border. After landing in Perth the passengers were kept in a room
for processing either return flights to BNE or quarantine for 14 days. She never got to the hospital, if she did she would of seen her mums last 6 hours of life.
How distressing. However, McGowan would just shrug his shoulders and say tough luck.

C441

12th Jan 2021, 20:37

It seems like there are people out there who have nothing better to do than call radio stations with stupid questions.
Like you say,is it really that hard to work out what is required!
The problem was that the health directive regarding gyms said one thing and the Health Minister said the complete opposite in her press conference……what a surprise.:rolleyes:

Ragnor

12th Jan 2021, 20:38

Speaking of radio stations and airspace, heard a story last night that a Queensland lady needed to get to Perth because her mum was on her death bed.
She boarded the BNE-PER flight and half way through it WA closed the border. After landing in Perth the passengers were kept in a room
for processing either return flights to BNE or quarantine for 14 days. She never got to the hospital, if she did she would of seen her mums last 6 hours of life.
How distressing. However, McGowan would just shrug his shoulders and say tough luck.

MM has no remorse he will most likely not even hear of this lady’s storey. The scary thing here is he has brain washed WA ppl to think the east coast is so highly infectious that no contact could possibly be made. Sure lock out BN greater LGA, SY greater LGA what ever makes him feel good but what sense does it make to lock out ppl from Northern QLD and NSW residents outside SY etc.

KRviator

12th Jan 2021, 21:24

Mark McGowan:"NSW should look at the other states and territories and follow the majority consensus towards elimination!"

Also Mark McGowan: "It's too dangerous to open our borders to all of NSW, Qld or Victoria - I don't give two hoots that the NT, Qld, SA or Tasmania or the ACT have only declared Greater Sydney a hotspot!"

On a serious note though, I do wonder what his stance is going to be when a vaccine is deployed. Will he allow unrestricted entry to those who show proof of vaccination, or will he continue to peddle the line "Just because you've had a needle doesn't mean you can come in!"

Ragnor

12th Jan 2021, 21:49

If China stopped the ore that leaves WA with nothing really and the way it’s going with China it could very well happen. McGoose will have to change his strategy to align with the other states and territories.

dr dre

12th Jan 2021, 21:49

On a serious note though, I do wonder what his stance is going to be when a vaccine is deployed. Will he allow unrestricted entry to those who show proof of vaccination, or will he continue to peddle the line "Just because you've had a needle doesn't mean you can come in!"

Well there’s plenty of persons overseas now who have had a Covid vaccine who will still have to quarantine for 14 days, maybe even for the rest of the year. So they aren’t being allowed unrestricted entry.

As far as vaccines go it is more about reaching a critical mass of immunisation before allow relaxing of restrictions, one person could still cause an outbreak in a mostly unvaccinated population, albeit it they will be less contagious if they are infected.

compressor stall

12th Jan 2021, 22:01

On a serious note though, I do wonder what his stance is going to be when a vaccine is deployed. Will he allow unrestricted entry to those who show proof of vaccination, or will he continue to peddle the line "Just because you've had a needle doesn't mean you can come in!"

Once again, current data suggests having the vaccine will not stop you acquiring and transmitting the virus. You still get it and can infect others, but your body fights it extra effectively and you don't get (as) sick (and possibly reduce the viral loads to prevent super spreader individuals). Hence, even those vaccinated early on (like presumably international flight crew) will still have to quarantine until such time that enough of the population has been vaccinated so as to not overload the hospital system.

chookcooker

12th Jan 2021, 23:27

Once again, current data suggests having the vaccine will not stop you acquiring and transmitting the virus. You still get it and can infect others, but your body fights it extra effectively and you don't get (as) sick (and possibly reduce the viral loads to prevent super spreader individuals). Hence, even those vaccinated early on (like presumably international flight crew) will still have to quarantine until such time that enough of the population has been vaccinated so as to not overload the hospital system.
current data suggests neither.
they simply don’t have the data. Yet. Every statement to the contrary is simply a theory.
and it probably won’t be binary (either prevent infections or not) it may be somewhere in the middle.

neville_nobody

13th Jan 2021, 00:38

Hence, even those vaccinated early on (like presumably international flight crew) will still have to quarantine until such time that enough of the population has been vaccinated so as to not overload the hospital system.

Since the hospital system is actually being underutilised without a vaccine why is this even a remote concern? It would appear that 99% of people in Australia who get the Chinese Strain of Covid 19 seem to be fine and don't end up in hospital. My local hospital has actually been cutting down on casual staff hours due to a lack of things to do and that's with no vaccine.

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 01:22

Since the hospital system is actually being underutilised without a vaccine why is this even a remote concern?

That’s because entry from pandemic hotspots is restricted. We’re keeping large scale virus out of a population that isn’t immunised. If we didn’t the virus spreads to the point of health care system collapse ala Northern Hemisphere currently.

The whole point of the vaccination program is to allow this pandemic emergency to be brought under control so our health care system can cope with normal travel and human interaction. Then we can start to remove travel restrictions.

The vaccine is the only thing that’s going to allow unrestricted travel with no widespread health crisis. I cannot understand why anybody who works in our industry would dismiss or be opposed to this vaccine.

Icarus2001

13th Jan 2021, 02:34

Potsie Weber

13th Jan 2021, 03:44

Australia's numbers...

Total cases: 28,634

Total deaths: 909 (3.1%) Some very sick people included in these statistics.

Current active cases: 311 (estimated)

Total hospitalised: 45

Later this year lets look at the suicide statistics for 2020 in Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

Though the effects of the Pandemic are far from over and will be felt for years to come, this study found no effects on suicide rates for the first 7mths of the pandemic in QLD.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

neville_nobody

13th Jan 2021, 03:48

3318 Suicides in 2019
1195 Fatalities in Car Crashes in 2019 yet we all kept driving!!
We also had the Worst Influenza season ever in 2019 with 310 000 people presenting at Hospital with influenza and 910 related deaths.

Though the effects of the Pandemic are far from over and will be felt for years to come, this study found no effects on suicide rates for the first 7mths of the pandemic in QLD.

You need to wait a few years for that to play out. I would bet it will increase if there is a post pandemic economic crunch associated with lack of access to relatives. However if the economy can survive and the States start acting in the national interest it may not be to bad.

Sunfish

13th Jan 2021, 06:01

Some of you don't seem to understand logistics and especially supply chains, let alone complex systems.

Covid 19 is not directly lethal, we hope, to the majority of humans. It is indirectly lethal to everyone because it has the capacity to destroy the healthcare system.

You don't seem to understand what the poor doctors and nurses are going through overseas where their systems are under major stress. We need to protect our healthcare system and its workers.

P.S. Anyone want to coomplain how "harsh" "Unfair' "illogical" etc the covid response is now that they founds that cluster in Brisbane? This is a dynamic system.

Ngineer

13th Jan 2021, 06:23

Since the hospital system is actually being underutilised without a vaccine why is this even a remote concern? It would appear that 99% of people in Australia who get the Chinese Strain of Covid 19 seem to be fine and don't end up in hospital. My local hospital has actually been cutting down on casual staff hours due to a lack of things to do and that's with no vaccine.

I thought these guys were the so called "Hero's" in our society of hypochondriacs, if you were to believe the press sensationalism.

Turnleft080

13th Jan 2021, 07:36

[QUOTE=Sunfish;10966804]Some of you don't seem to understand logistics and especially supply chains, let alone complex systems.
Covid 19 is not directly lethal, we hope, to the majority of humans. It is indirectly lethal to everyone because it has the capacity to destroy the healthcare system.

Just to throw some numbers with your statement Sunfish worldwide their have been 93,000,000 cases, 66,000,000 recoveries, 2,000,000 deaths.
Looking at those figures it's not lethal, it's not a death sentence, however it's lethal if you have heart disease, diabetes 2, cancer, COPD, emphysema. Why? Your immune system is
exhausted and depleted to defend a covid strain. A covid strain loves any of these conditions it's free to duplicate and multiply. Also don't forget if you have these
conditions you still have a 98% chance of recovery. State/federal governments will scare the crap out of you that it's a death sentence. Remember the Dan show he
really liked to emphasis the death ages and that's it.

The healthier you are the less chance of flooding the health system.
I really think the WHO, CDC come clean and give us more information about this virus.
We only know so much, though I reckon their is more info out their they can educate us on.

WingNut60

13th Jan 2021, 09:16

..............Later this year lets look at the suicide statistics for 2020 in Australia.

Yes. Definitely worth follow up.
I guess that you're tipping an increase and you may be correct.
But the AIHW warns about interpreting trends in suicide rates in Australia because of the very low overall rate and the impact that small yearly variation can have on the rate.

What I am interested in is why, in the USA, without discernible COVID controls, the suicide rate (with firearms) has remained stable for several years through to and including 2020 but the homicide rate has increased dramatically - something like a 20 - 25% increase in just one year.

Sunfish

13th Jan 2021, 09:25

turnleft, where are your statistics for hospitalisation, ICU occupancy and deaths and illness among health care workers?

You obviously don't understand the problem.

Chronic Snoozer

13th Jan 2021, 11:07

We can survive COVID but we can't survive all having COVID at the same time.

Turnleft080

13th Jan 2021, 11:34

turnleft, where are your statistics for hospitalisation, ICU occupancy and deaths and illness among health care workers?

You obviously don't understand the problem.

Worst case scenario USA, --------- against Australia
Population 330,000,000 -----------------25,000,000

Total cases 23,400,000 ------------------ 28,647
Deaths 389,900 -------------------------------- 909
Total recoveries 13,800,000 ------------- 25,860
Active cases with covid 9,200,000 ------- 1,878
IN ICU 29,222 ------------------------------------ 1
Deaths per 1,000,000 = 1173 ----------------- 35

Haven't got health care workers though you reckon they would be healthy in the first place if their dealing with sick people
as their profession. As you can see the Aus numbers are influenced with harsh lockdowns, curfews, international air restrictions.
The USA hardly did any of that plus their diet is crap they all live on top of each other hence the large numbers.
I understand the problem, people should not be scared of the virus you should be scared of your own immune system.

Planet earth is located at the right temperature from the sun to sustain life. Provided is O2 and H2O and they alone
will produce fungi, moulds, viruses, germs. The bloke upstairs then decided to invent humans, and he provided them
with a immune system to fight them off. I believe that's been going on for the last 10,000 years.
Guess what, it will continue for the next 10,000 and 10,000 after that. What are we scared of?

Transition Layer

13th Jan 2021, 11:38

Does the average age of death ‘with COVID’, still exceed the average life expectancy in the western world?

I know this was definitely the case earlier in the pandemic, and I’d expect it was still the case as treatment strategies improve.

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 12:17

Does the average age of death ‘with COVID’, still exceed the average life expectancy in the western world?

Sorry, do we have an attitude that those above average life expectancy aren’t worth saving?

Even if you don’t care about those above average life expectancy look at the pandemic’s toll on some who are below average life expectancy:

Average age of Covid ICU patient in UK: 60 (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55586994)

25% of Covid dead in US below 65, another 25% between 65-74 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)

3000 US Healthcare worker Covid deaths, majority under 60 (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/23/us-healthcare-worker-deaths-covid-19-pandemic)

20% of US under 35’s admitted to hospital needed intensive care, 20% reported long term complications (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773055)

Over 75% of German patients with average age of 49 reported cardiac issues post Covid (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916)

Joker89

13th Jan 2021, 12:42

Over 75% of German patients with average age of 49 reported cardiac issues post Covid (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916)

As expected more hyperbole, sample size 100

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 13:34

As expected more hyperbole, sample size 100

Small sample but a random selection, still indicates high degree of post Covid complications for a group of people average age well under 65 in a first world country.

Hardly hyperbole. For a profession where good cardiac health is essential to be fit to fly I wouldn’t want to be taking too many chances.

Joker89

13th Jan 2021, 13:38

Mate you wrote a new headline for your linked article to try and make it sound more dire. More like 78 individuals, even the writer says all it proves is that further investigation is warranted.

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 13:57

Mate you wrote a new headline for your linked article to try and make it sound more dire. More like 78 individuals, even the writer says all it proves is that further investigation is warranted.

Exact text from the study:

this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis.

So over 75% of the patients in that study (unselected Btw, that’s the key) with a mean age of 49 had cardiac issues.

I agree further investigations need to be done, but you can hardly dismiss any risk of cardiac issues in the non elderly after Covid infection after reading that study.

wheels_down

13th Jan 2021, 19:56

Effective immediately McGoose will fine you $50,000 if your in Perth Airport minus a face mask.

Green.Dot

13th Jan 2021, 21:00

McGowan is a #### ####### ####

He may have had great success with the voters but watching him talk recently he is nothing but a power hungry psychopath. Must have been picked on during his Navy career I reckon.

Wait until COVID gets out in WA- he will make Dan look like a Saint.

WingNut60

13th Jan 2021, 21:03

Effective immediately McGoose will fine you $50,000 if your in Perth Airport minus a face mask.
That's one way to improve the compliance rate.

Transition Layer

13th Jan 2021, 21:07

Sorry, do we have an attitude that those above average life expectancy aren’t worth saving?

Never said that. I just posed the question. It’s called average life expectancy for a reason. We can’t live forever.

neville_nobody

13th Jan 2021, 21:32

Aren't airports a federal jurisdiction?

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 22:01

It’s pretty easy to not cop that massive fine. Just wear a mask in airports and on aircraft. As airline staff we’re mandated to wear one anyway as part of our employment. If we refused to we’d cop a bigger fine than $50k, it’s called being sacked.

I’d say fines towards the extreme end would be for those who are being disruptive, like refusing to wear one after being directed to by police.

dr dre

13th Jan 2021, 23:02

Eliminate it from community spread until the population is properly immunised.

In other news it’s good to see some progress is being made on the hotel quarantine front, with measures that epidemiologists have been wanting for months now are being considered, although it would’ve been better had the federal government taken the responsibility for quarantine as constitutionally mandated to them in the first place.

If these ideas are implemented across the nation then basically there’ll be very little risk of a major city hotel outbreak so life can return to best as normal until the population is immunised to herd immunity. Probably better for the quarantiners too as they can have some fresh air instead of being cooped up in sealed hotel room:

The Queensland Government will consider using mining camps to quarantine international travellers as the state grapples with a cluster of the highly-contagious UK strain of coronavirus.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she would raise the matter with the Federal Government when national cabinet meets next Friday.

"We are going to look at all options and one of those options is to look at some of the mining camps that we have in Queensland," she said.

"Now, for a start, some of these mining camps are four-star.”

"My understanding is most of them, the ones we're looking at, have balconies so there's a lot of fresh air for guests and also, too, there's the capacity for all of the staff and the cleaners and everyone to also be based on those sites as well.

"I think this is a rational option and if we are dealing with a strain which is up to 70 per cent more infectious, I think we need to be really serious about it."

Queensland considers mining camps for quarantining travellers - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-14/coronavirus-covid-brisbane-hotel-grand-chancellor-quarantine/13054282)

WingNut60

14th Jan 2021, 00:06

Effective immediately McGoose will fine you $50,000 if your in Perth Airport minus a face mask.
I believe that the penalty mentioned arises from this : “Breaching directions made under the Emergency Management Act may result in on-the-spot fines of $1,000 for individuals, or where a matter is deemed serious and dealt with under formal criminal charges penalties of up to $50,000 or imprisonment for 12 months may be imposed by the courts.”

The last significant penalty imposed under the WA state regs was a young man who was fined following numerous, flagrant breaches of his self-quarantine directions and subsequently pleaded guilty to 5 counts of Fail to Comply with an Emergency Management Act Direction
He was fined a total of $13,000. (Very lenient in my opinion).

A WA Police spokesperson said that “Breaching directions made under the Emergency Management Act may result in on-the-spot fines of $1,000 for individuals, or where a matter is deemed serious and dealt with under formal criminal charges penalties of up to $50,000 or imprisonment for 12 months may be imposed by the courts.”

In other words, the state law and penalties have not changed. The only change is the adoption of the requirement to wear the mask at all times in airports which is a federal directive arising from a National Cabinet decision.
It applies to NSW as well, though the penalty may vary from state to state.

As far as I can tell, in NSW the penalties which would apply would be for breaches of the Public Health Act 2010.
In the case of an individual, the maximum penalty is $11,000, or imprisonment for 6 months, or both and a further $5500 penalty may apply for each day the offence continues.
The NSW Police may also issue on-the-spot fines of $1000 for an offence.
In the case of any corporation, the maximum penalty is $55,000 and a further $27,500 penalty may apply for each day the offence continues.

Funny though that the papers aren't also saying "Beryl will fine you $11,000 AND stick you in gaol for six months if you don't wear a mask at the airport".