All borders to reopen.

[PoppaJo]

Soooo - In Victoria, from midnight - you are not allowed to go visit your relatives (or anyones) household, BUT you can go to a restaurant or pub!!!! So you can meet your family for dinner in a restaurant with up to 40 people. Makes sense ....:ugh:

Meanwhile Gladys is about to open up various parts of Sydney. It’s what the people want apparently.

Reports coming out now, of the TNT freight Hub in Sydney now closed as Delta has ripped right through it.

At this rate Kingsford Smith is done until we hit that magical vaccination number. She can be as vocal as she wants around the border, the others are not even going to flinch until she gets weeks of zero. The consequences of that is pretty grim for this Industry and it’s good people. Sydney is done for this year.

[SHVC]

Sydney is done until end of November unless, ppl start hooking into Astra Zeneca supply. Lets see is these so called freedom mob who rioted on the weekend for the freedom of all of us take up this opportunity to show us he way.

[SOPS]

Gladys better enforce an extreme lock down right now. Otherwise Sydney and possibly NSW is doomed.

[mattyj]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/220x165/6e2e05ae_a568_4797_ab3a_75af9877542d_59c6795dbf5857b38d880b0 8669c33efaa2a37c5.gif

[SHVC]

Gladys better enforce an extreme lock down right now. Otherwise Sydney and possibly NSW is doomed.
Well some of the comments I read on social media, the people of Sydney already believe this lock down is worse than last yr and is unbearable Gladys cant possibly go any harder. If you go any harder they'll blow.

My personal opinion, I think Gladys know she has F@#ked it, the speed boat is out of sight and now for her to open up will be the vaccination rate. Gladys is making an announcement tomorrow of her opening up plan, you all read it here first, I bet a vaccination target will be announced to ease restriction. Honestly no other way for NSW to get out of this mess.

Unfortunate for Aviation it will do no good if NSW gets to the target she will announce, I bet the other states will be no where near their targets and they will not open to NSW.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

I think most states won’t care at all about her vaccination target. If the case numbers there remain above single digits NSW will remain cut off.

[PoppaJo]

I think most states won’t care at all about her vaccination target. If the case numbers there remain above single digits NSW will remain cut off.
A higher vaccination level might get the state moving to themselves, but not to anyone else.

She did try that dialogue the other week, in regards to having volume of active transmission in the long term, and then pushing ‘we are all one’ and expect the other states to join the transmission party. Needless to say she was shot down by old mate out West a few hours later.

[Turnleft080]

Well some of the comments I read on social media, the people of Sydney already believe this lock down is worse than last yr and is unbearable Gladys cant possibly go any harder. If you go any harder they'll blow.

My personal opinion, I think Gladys know she has F@#ked it, the speed boat is out of sight and now for her to open up will be the vaccination rate. Gladys is making an announcement tomorrow of her opening up plan, you all read it here first, I bet a vaccination target will be announced to ease restriction. Honestly no other way for NSW to get out of this mess.

Unfortunate for Aviation it will do no good if NSW gets to the target she will announce, I bet the other states will be no where near their targets and they will not open to NSW.
Like flying past your PNR, no way back. Let it rip Gladys. Just let it rip. The quicker it spreads, the quicker your herd immunity will occur. If everyone did the appropriate
thing to take control of your own health (not the premier, not the CHO, not your doctor) but you. YOU YOU YOU. You got enough elderly vaccinated, so just let it rip. Sure you will get some hospitalisations and ICUs
though millions will be A-symptomatic even without you knowing you got covid. What makes you think all the other states are clean. Their could be hundreds of A-symptomatic out their just not getting tested.
Lockdowns are like trying to fix the Hoover Dam with band aids. At some stage it's going to go bang.

OK, I will be nice now, keep your distance 1.5m, wash your hands jeffery, practice deep breathing with your mask on with that disposable your been wearing for a week.
Just about to put on the bullet proof jacket, you can shoot me now.

[SOPS]

Like flying past your PNR, no way back. Let it rip Gladys. Just let it rip. The quicker it spreads, the quicker your herd immunity will occur. If everyone did the appropriate
thing to take control of your own health (not the premier, not the CHO, not your doctor) but you. YOU YOU YOU. You got enough elderly vaccinated, so just let it rip. Sure you will get some hospitalisations and ICUs
though millions will be A-symptomatic even without you knowing you got covid. What makes you think all the other states are clean. Their could be hundreds of A-symptomatic out their just not getting tested.
Lockdowns are like trying to fix the Hoover Dam with band aids. At some stage it's going to go bang.

OK, I will be nice now, keep your distance 1.5m, wash your hands jeffery, practice deep breathing with your mask on with that disposable your been wearing for a week.
Just about to put on the bullet proof jacket, you can shoot me now.

You forgot the eat garlic part.

[Turnleft080]

You forgot the eat garlic part.
Can't mention those sort of thing SOPS, it's all taboo.

[compressor stall]

That day has to come. It will come.

With currently circa 2000 infected in latest outbreak, there have been 12 deaths. That’s 6 per thousand (with all sick getting all getting the ICU care they need).

if you do it today with 10% vaxed that’s 4.5m unvaxed in Greater Sydney.

With 6 per thousand deatht rates you’re looking at 25,000 dying, and that’s not including overloaded health care system.

Do you take that risk?

[Xeptu]

As the vaccine is rolled out the nation needs to have the conversation as to what is expected once all those that are going to be vaccinated, have been.
Currently the expectation is zero community transmission.
Is the expectation that will remain the case. International travel is on you, except to re-enter you must not be infectious and vaccinated.
Or
No restrictions regardless of infection rate

[SHVC]

Our inept prime minister can’t and won’t have that conversation. Zero is the number most of these premiers want. I bet lord McGoose won’t accept anything above zero even with 100% vaccination rate.

[compressor stall]

There are green shoots of that discussion, not just in the shock jock world, but in other channels. Even in the NSW gov't at the start of this latest outbreak but it got quickly squashed. I've been trying to have it for a while with friends and family, but only recently getting traction, probably as the vaccination rate is slowly climbing

IMHO Gladys will not survive this unscathed. She has a few options:

Keeps the current lockdowns that seem to stem the exponential rise of cases but would need to keep it same until the end of the year when vax rates are getting to 70%
Goes full bore on the lockdown for a month, no-one can do anything except get food and then on certain days etc. only 1 person out of the house. Nothing else, nada.
Let it rip. No lockdown, no restrictions and have the deaths of thousands as your legacy because you didn't do it the way others did it.

None are pretty.

[Ladloy]

Like flying past your PNR, no way back. Let it rip Gladys. Just let it rip. The quicker it spreads, the quicker your herd immunity will occur. If everyone did the appropriate
thing to take control of your own health (not the premier, not the CHO, not your doctor) but you. YOU YOU YOU. You got enough elderly vaccinated, so just let it rip. Sure you will get some hospitalisations and ICUs
though millions will be A-symptomatic even without you knowing you got covid. What makes you think all the other states are clean. Their could be hundreds of A-symptomatic out their just not getting tested.
Lockdowns are like trying to fix the Hoover Dam with band aids. At some stage it's going to go bang.

OK, I will be nice now, keep your distance 1.5m, wash your hands jeffery, practice deep breathing with your mask on with that disposable your been wearing for a week.
Just about to put on the bullet proof jacket, you can shoot me now.
only 16% fully vaxed. 1000s will die.

[machtuk]

Like flying past your PNR, no way back. Let it rip Gladys. Just let it rip. The quicker it spreads, the quicker your herd immunity will occur. If everyone did the appropriate
thing to take control of your own health (not the premier, not the CHO, not your doctor) but you. YOU YOU YOU. You got enough elderly vaccinated, so just let it rip. Sure you will get some hospitalisations and ICUs
though millions will be A-symptomatic even without you knowing you got covid. What makes you think all the other states are clean. Their could be hundreds of A-symptomatic out their just not getting tested.
Lockdowns are like trying to fix the Hoover Dam with band aids. At some stage it's going to go bang.

OK, I will be nice now, keep your distance 1.5m, wash your hands jeffery, practice deep breathing with your mask on with that disposable your been wearing for a week.
Just about to put on the bullet proof jacket, you can shoot me now.

well put, agree 100% The biggest issue if fear, so many out there living in fear, exactly what the lunatic Premiers want!

[KRviator]

only 16% fully vaxed. 1000s will die.That death toll may well be cheaper than having the nations biggest city locked down. Read this morning the Sydney lockdown alone is $220,000,000 per day! Victoria is $150,000,000. At $5.0M per life (for a healthy young adult) that's 44 deaths per day (NSW) and 30 Vic equivalent cost - assuming every death is a healthy, young(ish) taxpayer, not some old duck in their 80's or 90's like the vast majority have been and who are now, mostly, vaccinated.

How long until someone decides it's worth it?

No matter if "they" do, SHVC is spot on with his assertion:
Our inept prime minister can’t and won’t have that conversation. Zero is the number most of these premiers want. I bet lord McGoose won’t accept anything above zero even with 100% vaccination rate.They have set this unrealistic goal and now have to stick to it, having built their entire reelection campaigns on the "But only I kept you safe!" mantra - which the UK is showing to be a false prophecy. Despite vaccinations, despite lockdowns, you will still have cases, you will still have deaths. The goal of absolute zero Covid, while admirable, is like zero fatalities in flying, It's a target, a wish, we all aspire to achieve it, but it'll never happen.

[Foxxster]

Well looks like another month lockdown for sydney

but construction will be allowed but with capacity limits
people living alone will be allowed another person to visit them, ie a friend

royal prince Alfred hospital is turning ambulances away right now due to a developing covid situation.

[Xeptu]

The biggest issue is fear, so many out there living in fear, exactly what the lunatic Premiers want!

I'm not sure that's right, I don't know anyone living in fear and some of those have actually been infected, pre vaccine.
It is fair to say we are "fearful" of what may be coming next (breakout strain), that's not the same thing.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

It would not be fair to let it rip yet , considering most under 40s have not had access to the vaccine.

[SOPS]

Well looks like another month lockdown for sydney

but construction will be allowed but with capacity limits
people living alone will be allowed another person to visit them, ie a friend

royal prince Alfred hospital is turning ambulances away right now due to a developing covid situation.

I am not doubting you. Do you have a source for all of that? I’m just interested.

In other news…. Our super smart Ballina couple have been hit with a total of $14000 in fines. They are lucky they are not in WA, they probably would be in jail.

[ScepticalOptomist]

only 16% fully vaxed. 1000s will die.

1000’s already do. Perspective. 4’ish million dead from COVID - around 60 million die every year from all the other stuff we don’t try to eliminate.

[Ladloy]

1000’s already do. Perspective. 4’ish million dead from COVID - around 60 million die every year from all the other stuff we don’t try to eliminate.
Would love some examples because this argument doesn't hold water.

[machtuk]

That death toll may well be cheaper than having the nations biggest city locked down. Read this morning the Sydney lockdown alone is $220,000,000 per day! Victoria is $150,000,000. At $5.0M per life (for a healthy young adult) that's 44 deaths per day (NSW) and 30 Vic equivalent cost - assuming every death is a healthy, young(ish) taxpayer, not some old duck in their 80's or 90's like the vast majority have been and who are now, mostly, vaccinated.

How long until someone decides it's worth it?

No matter if "they" do, SHVC is spot on with his assertion:
They have set this unrealistic goal and now have to stick to it, having built their entire reelection campaigns on the "But only I kept you safe!" mantra - which the UK is showing to be a false prophecy. Despite vaccinations, despite lockdowns, you will still have cases, you will still have deaths. The goal of absolute zero Covid, while admirable, is like zero fatalities in flying, It's a target, a wish, we all aspire to achieve it, but it'll never happen.

Another well said post -)
The grubby politicians have dug us a hole so deep that we will never climb out unless they can think beyond their political careers which will never happen!
Remember politicians face reflections, that's a huge negative for the general public when it comes to making decisions outside of their own greed!

[KRviator]

Would love some examples because this argument doesn't hold water.For Australia alone, you can start with ~8,500 a year from "Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung" also known as lung cancer. The vast majority (90% men / 65% women - Source (https://www.cancercouncil.com.au/lung-cancer/about-lung-cancer/)) of which is caused by - entirely voluntary, and accepted-by-Government - tobacco smoking. ABS: Leading causes of death, Australia, 2010, 2014, 2019 (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release#australia-s-leading-causes-of-death-2019)

Of note, "Influenza and Pneumonia" caused 2,373, 2,879 and 4,124 deaths for those three years sampled, for an average of 3,125 deaths per year. Prostate cancer, around 3,100 blokes carked it per year, while around 2,900 women died from breast cancer.

So, between lung cancer, pneumonia, prostate and breast cancer we've killed off around 17,500 people a year! If you want to add motor vehicles, that's an additional 1,100 a year, nationwide...

The total deaths for each year were 143,473, 153,580 & 168,960 - averaging that gives 155,000 people dying each year.

[Foxxster]

I am not doubting you. Do you have a source for all of that? I’m just interested.

In other news…. Our super smart Ballina couple have been hit with a total of $14000 in fines. They are lucky they are not in WA, they probably would be in jail.
it was mentioned on channel 7 news tonight. Expect the formal announcement tomorrow morning at 11 which is the usual premiers news conference.

[Ladloy]

For Australia alone, you can start with ~8,500 a year from "Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung" also known as lung cancer. The vast majority (90% men / 65% women - Source (https://www.cancercouncil.com.au/lung-cancer/about-lung-cancer/)) of which is caused by - entirely voluntary, and accepted-by-Government - tobacco smoking. ABS: Leading causes of death, Australia, 2010, 2014, 2019 (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release#australia-s-leading-causes-of-death-2019)

Of note, "Influenza and Pneumonia" caused 2,373, 2,879 and 4,124 deaths for those three years sampled, for an average of 3,125 deaths per year. Prostate cancer, around 3,100 blokes carked it per year, while around 2,900 women died from breast cancer.

So, between lung cancer, pneumonia, prostate and breast cancer we've killed off around 17,500 people a year! If you want to add motor vehicles, that's an additional 1,100 a year, nationwide...

The total deaths for each year were 143,473, 153,580 & 168,960 - averaging that gives 155,000 people dying each year.


Smoking - billions spent on advertising and regulation. This one is a choice and the cost is huge on the taxpayer.

Breast and prostate cancer - billions spent per year on early detection, chemo, management, charities

Motor vehicles - HEAVILY regulated with compulsory billions spent on advertising for safety, speeding and drinking. Remember when seatbelts were mandatory and people cracked the poos?


You know what all these things have in common? If they were all left unregulated the death rate would be astronomically higher just like covid. If we let it rip right now take the swedish, US or UK death rates and apply them to Aus. 30 to 50k dead, herd immunity will not be achieved either. So you're happy to increase the death rate in Australia by 30% for up to 3 years?


Another argument is the cost of a human life. Dead people don't pay tax, thousands of dead people in a short time is very bad for the economy. Worse than the current debt accrued by the LNP.

[Xeptu]

For Australia alone, you can start with ~8,500 a year from "Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung" also known as lung cancer. The vast majority (90% men / 65% women - Source (https://www.cancercouncil.com.au/lung-cancer/about-lung-cancer/)) of which is caused by - entirely voluntary, and accepted-by-Government - tobacco smoking. ABS: Leading causes of death, Australia, 2010, 2014, 2019 (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release#australia-s-leading-causes-of-death-2019)

Of note, "Influenza and Pneumonia" caused 2,373, 2,879 and 4,124 deaths for those three years sampled, for an average of 3,125 deaths per year. Prostate cancer, around 3,100 blokes carked it per year, while around 2,900 women died from breast cancer.

So, between lung cancer, pneumonia, prostate and breast cancer we've killed off around 17,500 people a year! If you want to add motor vehicles, that's an additional 1,100 a year, nationwide...

The total deaths for each year were 143,473, 153,580 & 168,960 - averaging that gives 155,000 people dying each year.

These are all fair arguments that need to be put to the population in the conversation about a post vaccinated Australia. How do we want Australia to look going forward. There's no point telling a health professional these things when their sole purpose is to safe lives regardless of the cause. There's not much point blaming our Premiers either, they are doing exactly what we expect of them at this point. Comments like we're all sheep and the like aren't helping either, despite the understandable frustration. It's like sitting on the taxiway in a departure queue and a passenger yells out, oh FFS, how long do we have to wait, this taxiway is empty all the way to the runway, take it, lets go, bloody sheep.

[SOPS]

it was mentioned on channel 7 news tonight. Expect the formal announcement tomorrow morning at 11 which is the usual premiers news conference.

Thanks mate. We are behind you.. just on the news now

[rattman]

Thanks mate. We are behind you.. just on the news now

Pretty much every news source is reporting it now. The basics is 4 extra weeks, but some rules changed ie tradies and construction can be back working. year 12 will be back to school

Rapid antigen testing will be made available

[industry insider]

The basics is 4 extra weeks, but some rules changed ie tradies and construction can be back working. year 12 will be back to school

I don't think that's going to snuff it out, numbers are getting worse not better. Easing anything isn't the way to go if the goal is to eliminate community transmission. NSW is going to be isolated from the rest of us for a few months yet.

[Turnleft080]

Pretty much every news source is reporting it now. The basics is 4 extra weeks, but some rules changed ie tradies and construction can be back working. year 12 will be back to school

Rapid antigen testing will be made available
What the? Mrs Lockdown has had one to many claytons.

[Xeptu]

May as well lift the entire lockdown, it's pointless.

[ruprecht]

May as well lift the entire lockdown, it's pointless.
I think we’re just buying time to get vaccines in arms at this point.

[Xeptu]

I think we’re just buying time to get vaccines in arms at this point.

There is no time, it's too late, that will take weeks, by then there will be thousands of infections, all that is going to do is increase the chances of a breakout strain.
Her choices are a full uncompromising lockdown, or, let it rip. This is not going to end well.

[ruprecht]

There is no time, it's too late, that will take weeks, by then there will be thousands of infections, all that is going to do is increase the chances of a breakout strain.
Her choices are a full uncompromising lockdown, or, let it rip. This is not going to end well.
Maybe, but it’s weeks with a lockdown rather than weeks without one. It’s about minimizing damage at this point. I agree it doesn’t look good though.

Eventually though, we will have to examine the costs of the lockdown vs lives saved (or deaths postponed) - but we are a long way from that point.

[SOPS]

I say again, she has to lock down hard. She has to bring in the Army to the ‘communities’ that come to Australia, but don’t ‘ understand’ except when applying to Centrelink . Its now or never.

[ruprecht]

I say again, she has to lock down hard. She has to bring in the Army to the ‘communities’ that come to Australia, but don’t ‘ understand’ except when applying to Centrelink . Its now or never.
The Army isn’t getting involved.

It’s not The Day of The Triffids…

[601]

I think we’re just buying time to get vaccines in arms at this point.

Gee it has taken a while for that fact to sink in.
That has been the point from day one.

[Fuel-Off]

I say again, she has to lock down hard. She has to bring in the Army to the ‘communities’ that come to Australia, but don’t ‘ understand’ except when applying to Centrelink . Its now or never.

Problem is, with no Jobkeeper people have to work. People in these 'communities' as you put it SOPS (nice privileged-white-man-dog-whistle by the way), have to go out to work and earn a crust to feed their families. Either die of starvation or die of COVID, it's a conundrum that many all over the world have had to face hence why locking down hasn't stopped the spread of this thing. People have to get out to live.

Gladys is screaming for Jobkeeper to come back seeing as Sydney is looking at another four weeks of this. Is Canberra going to listen? SloMo certainly would look after his own backyard in Sydney if he could, but the optics of playing favourites would royally screw him politically (like he isn't screwed enough already).

[Nulli Secundus]

The NSW Premier can urge, wish, strongly encourage etc.all she likes but this situation, now, no longer affords that degree of latitude. It never actually did but given she waited too long and the action she took effectively lagged the outbreak's expansion 'by one local government area/ limo driver' she will now in my view exacerbate the problem in so far as public health is concerned. It takes a command style approach to pull together a team and thereafter a statewide community that can hold out for the relatively few weeks needed to contain this outbreak. She isn't that leader.

There are occasions particularly in politics where spin, political capital, charisma and just plain likeability get a leader out of a bind. Often, rightly or wrongly, a leader can simply 'manage' their way out of a crisis. You can't manage or message your way out of this. The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants, it does have a very long lasting debilitating effect i.e long covid, and vaccines are still months away before all of greater Sydney has two doses.

In aviation, particularly in say the area of EP's we don't softly encourage with words like 'please', 'could you just', 'may I remind everyone' etc. because we know assertiveness saves lives. It gets the best results and whilst at the time some may say its too harsh, to not take that course is failing to properly care for those in your charge. To ease conditions whilst cases and infections are booming is not only fool hardy but clearly a political move. Those calling for a proper, thorough lockdown of all but the most essential of services are nowhere near as vocal or prominent in their public opposition as those who argue that maintaining economic activity should be paramount. She believes right now that if she manages the push back from even just a small section of the community, that will be all it takes to secure the next election.

[Icarus2001]

The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants, Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?

[Xeptu]

Maybe, but it’s weeks with a lockdown rather than weeks without one. It’s about minimizing damage at this point. I agree it doesn’t look good though.

Eventually though, we will have to examine the costs of the lockdown vs lives saved (or deaths postponed) - but we are a long way from that point.

I think her lockdown will have zero effect, if you can call it a lockdown at all. If it drags out into months, instead of a ring of steel around Sydney as suggested, you'll end up with entire regions within NSW, nearer the surrounding state borders that will want to declare themselves an uninfected quarantine region. Off limits to your own State.

[blubak]

The NSW Premier can urge, wish, strongly encourage etc.all she likes but this situation, now, no longer affords that degree of latitude. It never actually did but given she waited too long and the action she took effectively lagged the outbreak's expansion 'by one local government area/ limo driver' she will now in my view exacerbate the problem in so far as public health is concerned. It takes a command style approach to pull together a team and thereafter a statewide community that can hold out for the relatively few weeks needed to contain this outbreak. She isn't that leader.

There are occasions particularly in politics where spin, political capital, charisma and just plain likeability get a leader out of a bind. Often, rightly or wrongly, a leader can simply 'manage' their way out of a crisis. You can't manage or message your way out of this. The facts don't lie....... Delta covid takes lives across a wider demographic, its more virulent than the Alpha, Beta or Gamma variants, it does have a very long lasting debilitating effect i.e long covid, and vaccines are still months away before all of greater Sydney has two doses.

In aviation, particularly in say the area of EP's we don't softly encourage with words like 'please', 'could you just', 'may I remind everyone' etc. because we know assertiveness saves lives. It gets the best results and whilst at the time some may say its too harsh, to not take that course is failing to properly care for those in your charge. To ease conditions whilst cases and infections are booming is not only fool hardy but clearly a political move. Those calling for a proper, thorough lockdown of all but the most essential of services are nowhere near as vocal or prominent in their public opposition as those who argue that maintaining economic activity should be paramount. She believes right now that if she manages the push back from even just a small section of the community, that will be all it takes to secure the next election.
In response to where you mention about softly encouraging people i have to agree.
I watched part of glayds's presser yesterday & as you say she seems to be trying to be nice all the time whereas with the vic & sa pressers the information being passed to the public is in reality telling us what has to be done.
Many people hate andrews but at least he comes across as a strong leader & in sa the cho nicola spurrier is so switched on(& so she should be).
I dont care what political party they represent,what we need is to get this under control for the good of the whole country.
Not important right now to play politics.

[WingNut60]

Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?

Not many. But that limited number has been achieved despite controls being in place.
Take the controls away, as ineffective as they may be, and the numbers would be very different.
Please refer Y2020 USA.

Being the cynic that I am, I am starting to wonder whether Beryl isn't silently playing for an end-game that goes "well this is not working, we might as well just open it all up"?
After all, that would fit right in with her earlier pronouncements.

[SHVC]

If this national cabinet is to achieve anything at all because it has not yet. The conversation with the medical experts not premiers who want to appease ppl with the biggest opinion for their vote, is what is the END GAME! what do they want exactly. U.K latest data still has what I think is a low death rate for the population and comparative to other illness that kill. With a falling positive rate at 30.8% (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) overtime the death rate will fall with a lower infectious rate if the U.K trends continue. We cant especially in NSW lockdown for zero cases and have 80% vax rate we don't have that time as we watch the rest of the world open up. .

[MickG0105]

Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
Assuming all the deaths in New South Wales since 10 July are related to the delta-variant, most likely 12 so far.

[MickG0105]

The Army isn’t getting involved.

It’s not The Day of The Triffids…
A literary/cultural reference for readers of certain age.

[Foxxster]

The 80% fully vaccinated rate is absurd. Have a look at current rates around the world. If Gladys wants to wait to get to 80% fully vaccinated before we can stop restrictions and get back to any form of normality then come back this time next year, or xmas 2022. It is bloody stupid and she needs to backtrack on it immediately. There will always be a proportion of people who will not get the vaccine, the denier type. Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.

a realistic number is around 65%. Which we can realistically get to around the end of this year. After you get to about that number, the rate plateaus right off. Progress is very slow.

[Ladloy]

Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.

That's a blatant lie

[Foxxster]

That's a blatant lie

is it… oh, so you are one of those pedantic people are you. How clever.

it affects that age group SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than other age groups and pales into insignificance compared to the risky nature of things that age group gets up to. Especially in Australia. Tell us all how many people in the 18 to 25 age group have died or been SERIOUSLY affected in Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/covid-19-deaths-by-age-group-and-sex

Go away.

that is also the age group that thinks they are bullet proof…

[mattyj]

The total deaths for each year were 143,473, 153,580 & 168,960 - averaging that gives 155,000 people dying each year.

even one death is one too many..we can’t rest until everyone lives forever

[Icarus2001]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen-328.html#post11085741)
Please tell us the facts.
How many lives has Delta taken in Australia this year?
Assuming all the deaths in New South Wales since 10 July are related to the delta-variant, most likely 12 so far.

Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
This is a massive overreaction by the media and consequently the states.
Pity the casual wage earners with no income and the small businesses forced to close.

[dr dre]

Then you will have a large number of 18 to 35 year olds especially the 18 to 25 who won’t get it because covid doesn’t affect that age group.



That's a blatant lie

Actually Ladloy has a point. Long term symptoms of Covid have been shown to persist in mild cases that didn’t require hospitalisation in younger people. This peer reviewed study (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3) from Norway explains:

We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61).

Not as bad as ventilation or death but still significant, and certainly enough to say Covid does affect the younger age group.

[Ladloy]

is it… oh, so you are one of those pedantic people are you. How clever.

it affects that age group SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than other age groups and pales into insignificance compared to the risky nature of things that age group gets up to. Especially in Australia. Tell us all how many people in the 18 to 25 age group have died or been SERIOUSLY affected in Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/covid-19-deaths-by-age-group-and-sex

Go away.

that is also the age group that thinks they are bullet proof…
Most of the workforce affected by lockdowns are in that age bracket as they take up most of the casualised positions in Australia. They have made a huge sacrifice in income to save the older generations. They will be wanting the vaccine to reduce the risk of another lockdown.

[Foxxster]

Actually Ladloy has a point. Long term symptoms of Covid have been shown to persist in mild cases that didn’t require hospitalisation in younger people. This peer reviewed study (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3) from Norway explains:

We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61).

Not as bad as ventilation or death but still significant, and certainly enough to say Covid does affect the younger age group.


oooh, a whole 61 people.. ooooh

get a grip. And try and work out what I was getting at instead of being a pathetic pedantic twit like Ladloy.

[dr dre]

Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?
You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?


It’s only low because a strict approach from governments has kept it low.

If it wasn’t contained then you’d get a situation like the rest of the world over the last 18 months.

How do we know the pandemic would’ve caused more deaths per usual and not just ones that would’ve happened due heart disease, diabetes, the flu etc?

Excess Mortality.

It was far greater than the previous 5 year norm in basically every other nation, and nothing to suggest Australia wouldn’t have been similarly affected.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) (https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid)

[ruprecht]

It’s only low because a strict approach from governments has kept it low.

If it wasn’t contained then you’d get a situation like the rest of the world over the last 18 months.

How do we know the pandemic would’ve caused more deaths per usual and not just ones that would’ve happened due heart disease, diabetes, the flu etc?

Excess Mortality.

It was far greater than the previous 5 year norm in basically every other nation, and nothing to suggest Australia wouldn’t have been similarly affected.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) (https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid)

Well, if nothing else the 2020 figures will raise the average, making it easier to get 2021 below average. :8

[43Inches]

You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?

Last years flu season was predicted to hit more than 300,000 cases. Due to Covid restrictions having the same effect on Flu there was only 20,000 cases with 36 confirmed deaths. Compare that to 800 odd deaths from Covid in the same period.

Diabetes is not a virus, its either hereditary or lifestyle based.

Car Crashes are not a virus and have various causes, most of which are preventable. Like those that deny Covid there are stupid drivers that ignore the rules and safety advice and die needlessly.

Suicides are stable, that is the same rate as they were before Covid, and while related to mental health there's a multitude of other complicated circumstance that lead to this.

Allergies, well who knows, I would say the precautions for Covid worked like the Flu and reduced the amount of severe allergic reactions, again this is managed by the individual and regulation of food handling and warning labels. Allergies is probably one of the few that could be categories as something that another person could inflict on you unknowingly, but it will not spread like wildfire to everyone around you, so again not comparable.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Would love some examples because this argument doesn't hold water.

Ladloy, look up any site that has stats on deaths for the world. It’s all available, for free. Take note of the category of “influenza / pneumonia / respiratory illnesses” and you’ll be surprised at how many die every day. Now compare that to the deaths (globally) due to COVID.

4 million or so dead in 16 odd months is a large number until it’s compared to the vast numbers dying every day “without COVID”.

[ScepticalOptomist]

even one death is one too many..we can’t rest until everyone lives forever

Haha, that’d be great! We’d all be broke, but it’s be worth it!!

:-)

[43Inches]

Ladloy, look up any site that has stats on deaths for the world. It’s all available, for free. Take note of the category of “influenza / pneumonia / respiratory illnesses” and you’ll be surprised at how many die every day. Now compare that to the deaths (globally) due to COVID.

If you focus the stats on countries that have handled covid poorly, like the USA, 2019 flu season killed 20,000. 2020 Covid season killed 500,000, flu is much less deadly.

Pneumonia is not a virus, its a condition of the lungs, so Covid also causes pneumonia as does the flu, legionaires, etc. The category of flu being put with pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses is that it affects the lower respiratory tract.

[MickG0105]

Well there it is, twelve people. How many were close to death from other causes?

Couldn't tell you for sure. There was one in their 90s, eight in their 80s, and one each in their 70s, 50s and 30s.

Just by the bye, is this "woulda died anyway" discount approach going to be a thing moving forward? We could shave 12.5 percent off the actual road toll numbers by ignoring the 75 years old and overs killed in road accidents. Deaths by suicide would fall by around 7.5 percent if you just took out all the over 75s on the basis that they were on their way out anyway. Roger Dean could probably get his 11 counts of murder knocked down to simple arson.


You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?

Flu - zero, according to last week's Influenza Surveillance Report.

Diabetes - is that died from or died with? That seems to be a popular distinction in some circles these days. Died from, as in diabetes being the underlying cause of death, probably around 2,800 based on historical numbers.

Car crashes - 562 or so, but only about 490 if you don't count the 75s and older.

Suicides - probably around 1,900 based on historical data, but with your "One foot in the grave" discount only around 1,760.

Allergies - as in acute allergic reactions (anaphylaxis), probably only 14 or 15 based on historical information.

[Chronic Snoozer]

You guys need some perspective, how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?
This is a massive overreaction by the media and consequently the states.

Death from car crashes has long been seen as unacceptable hence the billions spent on ABS, airbags and crash worthiness testing and technology not to mention roads, signage and regulation/enforcement. Fortunately, this investment has been spread over time and recouped by sales, taxes and the opportunity cost of not having hospitals filled with car crash victims and the accompanying loss of productivity. The pandemic is similar yet it needs to be addressed over a much shorter timeframe and the costs are upfront and visible.

[MickG0105]

4 million or so dead in 16 odd months is a large number until it’s compared to the vast numbers dying every day “without COVID”.
The 4 million or so dead is calculated using less than 425,000 deaths for India. Do you think that the Indian death toll numbers are correct?

Leaving that aside for the time being, accepting that it's 4.2 million deaths over 16 months or so that's an unweighted annual figure of 3.15 million deaths. To see that sort of increase in annual global deaths would normally take about half a decade, five years.

[Xeptu]

I think you're onto something here Mick, Why 75 though, anyone over 60 is a bonafide card carrying senior citizen, so lets not count any of those, then if we seasonally adjust the remaining figures, we come up with very small numbers all round. All we'll need is just a trauma centre instead of an emergency department and a children's hospital. I think we should get Barny onto this.

[MickG0105]

I think you're onto something here Mick, Why 75 though, anyone over 60 is a bonafide card carrying senior citizen, ...
Cutting a bit close to the bone there, champ.

[Xeptu]

Cutting a bit close to the bone there, champ.

Might as well go whole hog.

Hey Foxster, are you OK, you're looking a bit distressed there mate, I had one of those wobbly moments myself a way back, It'll pass ok.

[SOPS]

In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/queensland-coronavirus-george-thompson-fined-border-breach/100325698

[Foxxster]

In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/queensland-coronavirus-george-thompson-fined-border-breach/100325698

it’s worse than that. This is the flight attendant

Malynda Gray, 36, who also goes by Mel Waterhouse, has been identified as the woman who moved around in south-east Queensland for a week after experiencing Covid symptoms,

In 2017 Ms Gray appeared in news reports when she had claimed to have dated Ricky Maddison, who was responsible for the death of Queensland policeman Brett Forte after a shoot-out in May 2017. Maddison fired two full magazines at police cars during a pursuit from Toowoomba to the Lockyer Valley, killing Officer Forte. He was later shot dead by police after a 20-hour siege.

Gray was described by media outlets at the time of his death as an ex-girlfriend of Maddison's.

'We were together for a while and in that time he was the most caring person I knew,' she said.

'I don't believe the allegations against him from my loving experiences with him. He used to make me laugh all the time. He was an amazing, caring person.'

[MickG0105]

In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/queensland-coronavirus-george-thompson-fined-border-breach/100325698
Flight attendant behind Covid-19 scare dated Brett Forte’s killer Ricky MaddisonThe identities of a man and woman behind Queensland’s latest Covid-19 scare have been revealed, as a video emerged of the Sydney escapee doing … well, we’re not all that sure.

Kate Kyriacou, et al
Courier-Mail
July 28, 2021 - 11:59AM

THE flight attendant at the centre of Queensland’s Covid-19 scare once claimed to have dated cop killer Ricky Maddison, describing him as “the most caring person I know”.

Ms Gray was on Tuesday fined $4000 for failing to comply with a border direction after driving Covid-positive Mr Thompson into Queensland on July 14 – resulting in her contracting the virus herself.

Mr Thompson, 26, was not supposed to have left Sydney, but f lew to Ballina where he met Ms Gray, who drove him to Tugun and Brisbane.

At the time, Mr Thompson had been given a negative test result from a Sydney laboratory, but was later told the result was wrong, which he is alleged to have kept hidden from Queensland authorities.

Ms Gray, who works for Qantaslink as a flight attendant, tested positive for coronavirus on July 22, but had felt unwell for about a week.

Queensland Health on Thursday night added an additional contact tracing location at Mermaid Waters on the Gold Coast. Black Swan Coffee, Shop 8 Q Super Centre at Mermaid Waters is considered to be a close contact site between 1.40pm and 2pm on Friday, July 23.

Queensland Health, which at first believed her infection was a mystery case, later Queensland Health was made aware of his Covid status only after he was identified as a close contact of Ms Gray and put into hotel quarantine.

It is understood he was in hotel quarantine for about 24 hours while knowingly infectious before Queensland Health got the results of its own test.

On Wednesday, police gave Mr Thompson three infringement notices, alleging he opened the door of his room and “verbally abused” staff – without a mask – after being told he had the virus.

“It is alleged after warnings, and with full knowledge of his positive Covid-19 delta strain diagnosis, he continued to open his door while not wearing a face mask,” police said in a statement.

Mr Thompson has been fined $4000 for failing to comply with a border direction, $4000 for failing to comply with a Covid-19 direction by providing untrue information.

Ms Gray spoke out about her past relationship with Maddison in 2017 when he was killed after a 20-hour siege.

Maddison lured police into an ambush near Gatton and opened fire with a machine gun, killing Senior Constable Brett Forte.

It is understood Ms Gray was seeing Maddison seven years earlier. “We were together for a while and in that time he was the most caring person I knew,” she said in 2017.

“I don’t believe the allegations against him from my loving experiences with him. He used to make me laugh all the time. He was an amazing, caring person.”


Ms Gray, who works for Qantaslink as a flight attendant ...

Probably a safe bet to make that past tense.

[DirectAnywhere]

In other news .. an update of our Ballina couple. We have a name and a face, and it appears the Flight Attendant is not cooperating with Police and has lawyered up.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/queensland-coronavirus-george-thompson-fined-border-breach/100325698

Pretty sure Queensland Police and QANTAS can afford better lawyers. Should be fun to watch.

[rattman]

Pretty sure Queensland Police and QANTAS can afford better lawyers. Should be fun to watch.
Whats that qantas lawyer got to do with it

[PoppaJo]

The only cost that Qantas will wear is paying some payroll person to hit the terminate button.

[DirectAnywhere]

Whats that qantas lawyer got to do with it

Probably nothing if she accepts her seemingly inevitable fate. Maybe something. Dunno. It was intended to be tongue in cheek and perhaps inject a moment of levity into an otherwise dire situation. I found it kind of funny that she's "lawyering up". It would seem from the outside to be a waste of both time and $$.

[MickG0105]

Even in the worst first world jurisdictions that have seen large numbers of deaths the stats are pointing to a resounding “no”.

What stats would they be?


Our individual lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less. ...
What data supports your contention that lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less?

An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that per life notionally saved. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'.

[Torukmacto]

Lock down was only meant to slow it down while vaccinations took place and protect our health system . Fear and misinformation is out of control . Frustrating to see Australians vaccination rate so low . Spending days discussing a single case , complaining about protestors or not stopping all inbound international arrivals . This thing is here to stay . Time to acknowledge the problem and the best solution and get vaccinated.

[Turnleft080]

The last couple of deaths sadly have been in their 80s and 90s. News wise, that's it. However, if it's a 30yo sadly then the government
will rant on "see it's just not an old persons disease". Main stream media will rant on it's not an oldies disease as well. That must be emphasised.
It's part of public health policy, that faceless mob, to make sure your doubly scared as a Freddy Krueger movie. Whatever it takes to crush this nasty
beast, this killing machine into the ground. Surprised they haven't brought back the grim reaper from the dead. That 30sec Poltergeist 4 trailer
never cut the mastard

[SHVC]

PM Sco Mo has said no more lockdowns after December! Was there an emergency cabinet meeting today? That’s so thing that’s needed to be run by the 8 premiers running the country.

[Nulli Secundus]

Hard to say. I know there's been a cabinet emergency for a while.

[ScepticalOptomist]

What stats would they be?


What data supports your contention that lives, calculated for risk, have historically been worth orders of magnitude less?

An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'.

The data differs from your sums. The stats are freely available on government websites. I won’t do the work for you.

[MickG0105]

The data differs from your sums. The stats are freely available on government websites. I won’t do the work for you.
"I don't know." would have saved you a few keystrokes.

The utter implausibility of your "orders of magnitude" claim is easily demonstrated. Using $5 million as the value of a statistical life and a notional 35,000 lives saved, the mitigation expenditure would be $175 billion. When you raise that figure by "orders of magnitude" you get a minimum of $17.5 trillion. That is over ten times our annual GDP.

The total aggregated calendar year expenditure for all levels of government - federal, states and territories, and local - does not exceed $1 trillion.

​​​​​​​See the problem?

[Lead Balloon]

Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick:An estimate of the value of statistical life that has been discussed here is around $5 million. I've estimated that we've probably spent somewhere between 2 - 3 times that per life notionally saved. A factor of two or three is at least 30 times less than 'orders of magnitude'.I'll assume that your estimates are accurate. But...

It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to.

[ScepticalOptomist]

"I don't know." would have saved you a few keystrokes.
…
See the problem?

​​​​​​​Yes mate, I do.

[MickG0105]

Again, I dips me lid at your exquisite use of language, Mick

It is most likely the liberal sprinkling of facts and basic mathematics that makes the rhetoric look better.


... But...

It's of course your estimate of what's probably been "spent". Never an acknowledgement of the costs that you don't measure in dollars because you don't want to.


Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this?

... let's draw this argy-barge to a close because I do not have the time to be formulating "proper estimates" for non-financials. If you want to compare a speculative 'let it rip' scenario to the actual solution that Australian Governments have pursued, run with a cost of around $450 billion (that's $350 billion for the federal response (including tax revenues foregone), $60 billion for the aggregate state based responses and $40 billion for the 'non-financials'). If that doesn't suit, put your own numbers in.

So, to be very clear I most assuredly did acknowledge 'the costs that you don't measure in dollars' and I provided an estimate that went into the calculation. Moreover, I invited you to provide an alternate cost if you didn't like the $40 billion estimate.

[cessnapete]

Lock down was only meant to slow it down while vaccinations took place and protect our health system . Fear and misinformation is out of control . Frustrating to see Australians vaccination rate so low . Spending days discussing a single case , complaining about protestors or not stopping all inbound international arrivals . This thing is here to stay . Time to acknowledge the problem and the best solution and get vaccinated.


How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results.
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?

[StudentInDebt]

Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?If the conversation I had with another school dad is anything to go by, very much so.

[mattyj]

Sacrificing the freedom of the young and working age to save the retired and infirm..

​​​​​….is this the modern interpretation of throwing virgins into the volcano to guarantee the harvests?

[Turnleft080]

How come that the AZ vaccine is deemed to dangerous to use in Australia ? The very same vaccine has been and is being used on millions of people of all ages in the UK with great results.
Are people believing the anti vac mumbo jumbo rather than medical advice?
Problem is the medical advice is all mumbo jumbo if not worse. We lockdown when mystery cases get to 3.

[Lead Balloon]

It is most likely the liberal sprinkling of facts and basic mathematics that makes the rhetoric look better.

Now, that's manifestly and demonstrably incorrect, isn't it? In our discussions I was very clear that there are "non-financial" costs that are difficult to convert to properly estimated dollar costs. Remember this?

So, to be very clear I most assuredly did acknowledge 'the costs that you don't measure in dollars' and I provided an estimate that went into the calculation. Moreover, I invited you to provide an alternate cost if you didn't like the $40 billion estimate.
So, on your estimates of the 'financial' and 'non-financials' back then were: $450 billion 'spent' by governments collectively and $40 billion in 'non-financial costs'.

What does 40,000 lives saved (to go the extremes of the estimate) times $5 million add up to? Maybe we're mixing US billions with Australian billions?

[turbantime]

If the conversation I had with another school dad is anything to go by, very much so.
Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.

[cLeArIcE]

People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.

[Xeptu]

People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.

Sure and that's the conversation Australia needs to have. Unfortunately we are a long way away in the rollout for everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. it is also dependant on there being no change to the virus itself, should there be a breakout strain, (roughly every 6 months) Then there's the issue of Long Covid, once infected you may never fully recover. my girls who volunteed for VIC still havnt recovered after 12 months, will they ever, we don't know. How many of us are willing to live with that,

[Icarus2001]

Mick, I will choose one just to show how wrong you are.

Car crashes - 562 or so, but only about 490 if you don't count the 75s and older.

Try 1142 road deaths in the last twelve months. Double your figure. Should we lock down cars to prevent deaths?

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_monthly_bulletins

[SOPS]

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/urgent-alert-for-48-new-exposure-sites-as-sydney-faces-weeks-of-lockdown/news-story/43863d36e8749f7d6b217096dc988538

This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her.


https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/nsw-records-177-new-virus-cases-as-lockdown-extended/news-story/f6964c4b6173e20967c92242160e03a8

[aviation_enthus]

it is also dependant on there being no change to the virus itself, should there be a breakout strain, (roughly every 6 months) ,

Why can’t this be dealt with like the flu vaccine?

A new version of the flu vaccine is currently released every 6 months to coincide with the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters. No reason why a COVID booster couldn’t be released along the same time frame in the future.

The problem is getting it into peoples arms. For that we need to move away from the complex and overly bureaucratic rollout with the current vaccine. Major employers should be able to offer it direct to their staff in the workplace. Schools could give it at school (like other vaccines already). We could even set up mass walk in clinics in the major shopping centres!! Go get your groceries and walk out vaccinated!!

Most of these processes already exist for all the other vaccines we get. I don’t see why the COVID vaccine should be any different.

I’m sure we will get there, Australia just has to reinvent the wheel first. :ugh::ugh:

[Lead Balloon]

People probably think I'm heartless, but I don't see what the big issue is.
Offer The vaccine to everyone, don't force them. Protect the Very few that can't have the vaccine then, get on with life. If people choose not to have the vaccine and they subsequently get sick or die, does it really matter? We always talk about freedom of choice. We are all free to choose many things in life, that doesn't absolve you Of the consequences Of your choice. One could argue that ignoring science because of some article you read on the internet is the same evolutionary misstep as pulling the sabre tooth tiger's tale. Nature will take care of the rest.The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.

If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits.

That's why there's an ongoing discussion about what percentage of the population has to be vaccinated before it's sensible to 'let it rip'.

And let's hope there's enough 'agility' in the mRNA technology to keep up. The Omega strain is going to be very ugly.

[cloudsurfng]

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/urgent-alert-for-48-new-exposure-sites-as-sydney-faces-weeks-of-lockdown/news-story/43863d36e8749f7d6b217096dc988538

This is getting so out of control. Gladys HAS to bite the bullet and enforce a proper and hard lockdown. She has to stop half way measures. I think her future is doomed …. And she will take the Federal Libs along with her.


https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/nsw-records-177-new-virus-cases-as-lockdown-extended/news-story/f6964c4b6173e20967c92242160e03a8

yet from the same source….

Proof Sydney more restricted than Melbournehttps://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/?s=96&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fwp-content%2Fthemes%2Fnewscorpau-nca%2Fassets%2Fdist%2Fimg%2Fcommon%2Fheadshots%2Falexis-carey.png&r=g
Alexis Carey (https://www.news.com.au/the-team/alexis-carey)Melbourne's brutal 2020 lockdown made headlines around the world – but new mobility data reveals Sydney's current lockdown has been more effective in keeping residents at home.



According to the Daily Telegraph, (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/apple-google-mobility-data-shows-sydney-residents-staying-at-home-more-than-melburnians/news-story/8d0a3b3e88a06bf709422478a0209b98) the data was prepared by the state government for NSW's crisis cabinet, and it shows that on average, Sydneysiders are spending more time at home during the current lockdown than Melburnians did during theirs.



“When you look at the objective data, Sydney is staying home more compared to Melbourne in the similar stages of their lockdown last year,” Customer Services Minister Victor Dominello told the publication.


this identifies another major problem in Australia…dumbarse media (journalists are few and far between) and click bait headlines

[blubak]

Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.
Interesting you say that,i had a conversation with a childcare centre manager a couple of days ago & asked her about vaccination requirements for the kids that go there.
She told me that in 10 years of being in her position there have only been 3 families that would not get their kids vaccinated.
She said of all the others who didnt want to they soon changed their mind when they realised they would not be able to have their kids attend a childcare centre.

[StudentInDebt]

The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.

If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits.

This is a point that seems to go over the heads of those that point at the “low death rate”.

[chookcooker]

Simple, if you’re in a car crash, they wheel the most recent COVID sick anti-Vaxer into the car park and you take their bed.

[ruprecht]

People who were able to get vaccinated but refused should get nothing but palliative care.

How many small businesses need to fail because some idiots refuse to get vaccinated? I’m through playing with these morons: their choice, their consequences.

[Xeptu]

Why can’t this be dealt with like the flu vaccine?

A new version of the flu vaccine is currently released every 6 months to coincide with the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters. No reason why a COVID booster couldn’t be released along the same time frame in the future.

Well there is a reason, we might not be able to do it, That is over simplifying the miracle of modern science, just a tad.

[MickG0105]

Mick, I will choose one just to show how wrong you are.



Try 1142 road deaths in the last twelve months. Double your figure. Should we lock down cars to prevent deaths?

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_monthly_bulletins

Careful Icarus!

I will go back to your question just to show you that I answered it correctly and accurately. Your question was


... how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?

This year. Not the past twelve months, this year. And the numbers that I provided were for year to date, this year.

Given that we're a bit past halfway through the current year, little wonder that the figure I gave you is roughly half the rolling 12 month total.

[Torukmacto]

There is a tipping point when Australians will want to get vaccinated . Countries that where hit hard and people experienced family and friends struggle on ventilators have %80+ vaccination rates . Poor countries having seen family die in hospital hallways will accept any type of vaccination . Australia being the lucky country we don’t have these motivators to assist our vaccination uptake . Australians love houses so maybe raffle a house with views of Sydney harbour , to enter you must be vaccinated . Vaccine passports , without it , no restaurants, no travel , no beaches and no footy .

[MickG0105]

So, on your estimates of the 'financial' and 'non-financials' back then were: $450 billion 'spent' by governments collectively and $40 billion in 'non-financial costs'.

What does 40,000 lives saved (to go the extremes of the estimate) times $5 million add up to? Maybe we're mixing US billions with Australian billions?

40,000 x $5,000,000 = $200,000,000,000. That number, 200 with nine zeroes after it, would be called $200 billion regardless of whether you were in the US or Australia. OECD, World Bank, IMF, EU, US Treasury, HM Treasury, etc all use the convention that 1 billion is 1000 million or a 1 with nine zeroes after it.

[Icarus2001]

Mick, nice wriggle, financial year, calendar year or this last year. So are we locking down cars?

[MickG0105]

Mick, nice wriggle, financial year, calendar year or this last year. ...
Wriggle? How about just basic written comprehension. The wonderful thing about the English language is its capacity for precision and concision. You asked a question about this year, I answered it - drawing directly from the data that is downloadable from the BITRE website you posted a link to (it's Table 1.2 field 018 for reference) - and then you launched on me to show that I was wrong. I wasn't.

It would appear that having the humility to say, 'Oops, my mistake', is a rare commodity around here.

So are we locking down cars?
Well, I make a habit of locking mine. You do you.

[Lead Balloon]

40,000 x $5,000,000 = $200,000,000,000. That number, 200 with nine zeroes after it, would be called $200 billion regardless of whether you were in the US or Australia. OECD, World Bank, IMF, EU, US Treasury, HM Treasury, etc all use the convention that 1 billion is 1000 million or a 1 with nine zeroes after it.Rightyho then...

On your figures, we're paying $490 billion in 'real' costs (I reckon at $40 billion you're still underestimating the value of the non-financial costs) in order to save $200 billion (the value of 40,000 'statistical' lives, with the 40,000 being an over-estimate). I reckon it's closer to $600 billion 'spent' to save $100 billion in lives. And that $490 or $600 billion or whatever it happens to be now, is increasing by 100s of millions every DAY half the country's population is locked down.

Sooner or later...

("concision"? And you often don't 'get' sarcasm. Hmmm. Methinks you're not from 'around here'.)

[WingNut60]

There is a tipping point when Australians will want to get vaccinated . Countries that where hit hard and people experienced family and friends struggle on ventilators have %80+ vaccination rates . Poor countries having seen family die in hospital hallways will accept any type of vaccination . Australia being the lucky country we don’t have these motivators to assist our vaccination uptake . Australians love houses so maybe raffle a house with views of Sydney harbour , to enter you must be vaccinated . Vaccine passports , without it , no restaurants, no travel , no beaches and no footy .
Hell yeah. I can hardly wait to move to Sydney.

[layman]

Not comparing apples with apples but ... as has been mentioned many times before, perhaps the reason for lockdowns is to ‘save’ the health system (and lives in general) not just from Covid.

Japans hospital system is allegedly close to ‘collapse’

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-29/delta-coronavirus-fuels-tokyo-surge-during-olympics/100323570

[Xeptu]

Hell yeah. I can hardly wait to move to Sydney.

I see you're from Indonesia. Are you there now, how are you getting along, the stats are not looking pleasant over there. My thoughts are with Indonesia.

[SHVC]

Reported in the Australian, seems to be no explanation as to why given NSW has gone no where near as hard as DA lockdown methods. Also reported the C-19 vaccine (which one is not reported) is definitely working and doing as expected. Out of 2500 cases only 6 in aged care reported out of those 6 there is 5 vaccinated and have not reported any serious illness to the virus.


STEPHEN LUNN (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Stephen+Lunn)2 HOURS AGO | 7.50AMSydney spread slower than Melbourne, despite Delta

Sydney’s growth of new Covid-19 infections is running at a little more than half of that experienced by Melbourne last year at the same stage of its outbreak despite the fact NSW is grappling with a more infectious strain.

Victoria’s seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases stood at 10.1 on June 17 last year. By July 19 last year the seven day average of new Covid-19 infections had ballooned to 287.1.

Over the same 33-day period Sydney’s seven-day average of new cases has risen from 12.6 on June 26, when a lockdown was imposed on four Sydney local government areas, to 151.7 on Wednesday when Gladys Berejiklian extended Greater Sydney’s lockdown for 28 days.

Over the same comparable period 19 people had died in Victoria compared with 11 in Sydney.

The rate of growth in the two outbreaks was broadly similar for the first three weeks. Victoria’s seven-day moving average passed 100 on day 21 (102.3 on July 7, last year). While Sydney’s seven-day average of new cases jumped into the nineties on day 22 (96 on July 17) and stayed in the nineties until day 27, July 22.

Once Melbourne’s seven-day average had passed 100 it doubled over the next six days.

Sydney’s seven-day moving average has gone up by about 50 per cent in the six days since it passed a seven-day average of new cases of 100 – from 105 on July 22 to 151 on Wednesday

[MickG0105]

Rightyho then...

On your figures, we're paying $490 billion in 'real' costs (I reckon at $40 billion you're still underestimating the value of the non-financial costs) in order to save $200 billion (the value of 40,000 'statistical' lives, with the 40,000 being an over-estimate). I reckon it's closer to $600 billion 'spent' to save $100 billion in lives. And that $490 or $600 billion or whatever it happens to be now, is increasing by 100s of millions every DAY half the country's population is locked down.

Sooner or later...

("concision"? And you often don't 'get' sarcasm. Hmmm. Methinks you're not from 'around here'.)
$450 billion, $600 billion - call it $525 as an estimate with ±15 percent error bars. Is the spend more than the value of statistical life figure? Yes, most assuredly. Is it 'orders of magnitude higher'? No, most assuredly not.

Looking ahead, the data out of the UK (still somewhat early days) and Israel seems to be illustrating that 55-60 percent of the population fully vaccinated gets you out of the woods, relatively. We should hit that around early November.

[Foxxster]

$450 billion, $600 billion - call it $525 as an estimate with ±15 percent error bars. Is the spend more than the value of statistical life figure? Yes, most assuredly. Is it 'orders of magnitude higher'? No, most assuredly not.

Looking ahead, the data out of the UK (still somewhat early days) and Israel seems to be illustrating that 55-60 percent of the population fully vaccinated gets you out of the woods, relatively. We should hit that around early November.


except Gladys has very very foolishly stated 80% which we won’t get to until this time next year if then. There will be a plateauing once we get to around 65%.

so she needs to stfu about 80% seeing as no major country is near that now and many are opening up already like the uk at around 60%. I think scomo when he mentions Christmas is on the money. Like you said we should be around 65% by then , 55% or 60 sometime in November

[KRviator]

As of this morning the UK has 88.1% of all adults with their first vaccination and 71.1% have had both - but they opened up with (I think) 80 & 66%-ish. Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)

I would be very surprised to see Australia, not just NSW, get close to 80% in any reasonable timeframe, both due to vaccine hesitancy and Scotty's mishandling of the rollout.

[MickG0105]

As of this morning the UK has 88.1% of all adults with their first vaccination and 71.1% have had both - but they opened up with (I think) 80 & 66%-ish. Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)

I would be very surprised to see Australia, not just NSW, get close to 80% in any reasonable timeframe, both due to vaccine hesitancy and Scotty's mishandling of the rollout.
On the basis that Joe and Joanne Six-pack aren't already befuddled enough, when it comes to vaccination rates and targets there are, of course, at least two different measures - vaccinations per total population and vaccinations per adult population. 80 percent of the adult population is roughly 60 percent of the total population. I suspect that Gladys was talking about 80 percent of the adult population, which should be doable before year end.

[SHVC]

As Sco Mo keeps saying on numerous occasion even as late as this morning “high vaccination rates won’t stop lockdowns” so it does not matter whether 70% 80% or 90% is reached lockdowns will o our moving forward.

Also strong word over 200 will be announced for NSW today, lucky construction workers are allowed back on site from Saturday they have been hit extremely hard not being able to work for 14 days.

[MickG0105]

Out of today's Oz, vaccine hesitancy data out of the Melbourne Institute ...

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1056x924/screenshot_20210729_103817_chrome_2_b2b4e716918e682a04226124 f02b1f0e8bf35ae4.jpg

[WingNut60]

I see you're from Indonesia. Are you there now, how are you getting along, the stats are not looking pleasant over there. My thoughts are with Indonesia.
No. I'm back in Perth.
Still have friends and family in Indonesia.

Outer areas (lower population) are still half liveable. Larger cities, particularly on Java and Bali, are in a terrible position.
I have a niece who is a doctor at a large hospital in Bali. Her accounts are frightening; while at the same time doing her best to conceal her own fear.

She has mentioned a broad feeling that the Sinovac vaccine is proving to be of little use.
Personally, from a long residency in the country, I would suspect that the biggest problem with the vaccine would be knowing whether you had actually been vaccinated at all.

Of course, as with other less-developed countries, the biggest problem with measures to limit social inter-action and movements is that, without the ability to earn money for sustenance, people will die of starvation, not Covid.

[SOPS]

239 new cases in NSW. Gladys really has to stop people moving around.And I mean stop them.

[Agent_86]

Also strong word over 200 will be announced for NSW today

239 with only 81 not active in the community during their infectious period....

[Ladloy]

Onya Gladys. Gold Standard!

[Green.Dot]

Sadly it’s a bit like watching the Titanic start to take on water.

A vaccine equals a life jacket right now. Grab one while you can!

[WingNut60]

239 with only 81 not active in the community during their infectious period....
I wonder how many of those emanated from last weekends rally?
The timing is about right.

[PoppaJo]

Whilst it’s still a drop on the ocean compared to some other countries surging at the moment, it’s seems to be well seeded now that they will soon join those others in the 1000s.

Singapore was heading in the same direction as Sydney however they have now turned the corner and started the downward trend for the past week.

[SOPS]

I wonder how many of those emanated from last weekends rally?
The timing is about right..

That’s a good point.

[KRviator]

I wonder how many of those emanated from last weekends rally?
The timing is about right.True, though it'll be interesting to observe how many at the protest didn't get it, if any. ISTR the same was said about the Melbourne protest, yet very few, if any, cases were eventually traced back to it.

I'm wondering how many of these "out 'n' about while infectious" cases speak a language other than English at home....And in turn, whether they think the rules don't apply to them.

[SHVC]

I wonder how many of those emanated from last weekends rally?
The timing is about right.

it has only been 5 days, wouldn't 10-14 be more likely a time frame to link Saturdays madness to cases?

[MickG0105]

it has only been 5 days, wouldn't 10-14 be more likely a time frame to link Saturdays madness to cases?
Exposure to positive PCR result for delta is 3-5 days, with the peak at nearly 4 days. Much faster than the earlier variants.

[WingNut60]

Is there no irony in attending a rally to protest whatever the hell they were protesting about and to then go and get tested?

[minigundiplomat]

I'm wondering how many of these "out 'n' about while infectious" cases speak a language other than English at home....And in turn, whether they think the rules don't apply to them.

I was about to debunk that by pointing out Melbourne’s Western suburbs faced the same language challenges during last years great Victorian ‘lockathon’ but then I seem to recall 40 of them gathered for a family dinner.

[SOPS]

True, though it'll be interesting to observe how many at the protest didn't get it, if any. ISTR the same was said about the Melbourne protest, yet very few, if any, cases were eventually traced back to it.

I'm wondering how many of these "out 'n' about while infectious" cases speak a language other than English at home....And in turn, whether they think the rules don't apply to them.
I have been wondering the same thing. I bet there are quite a few who think the rules don’t apply to them…. They only listen to a higher authority.

[SHVC]

I very much doubt anyone who attended on Saturday would of been tested.

[Foxxster]

As of this morning the UK has 88.1% of all adults with their first vaccination and 71.1% have had both - but they opened up with (I think) 80 & 66%-ish. Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)

I would be very surprised to see Australia, not just NSW, get close to 80% in any reasonable timeframe, both due to vaccine hesitancy and Scotty's mishandling of the rollout.
Ah ha. Well I guess it does depend on what measure is used. It makes sense to only use the adult population as these vaccines haven’t yet been approved for children, although I think Pfizer had been approved for 12 up now here and also just approved in the uk for 12+. Not sure about other countries. But then again children are obviously part of the population so we really need both measures but be clear as to what is being used. I hope Gladys was talking about the adult population.


Lockdowns are set to be become "a thing of the past" with Australia on track to have a high percentage of the population vaccinated by Christmas, Scott Morrison has said.

The Prime Minister said with the nation now administering more than one million COVID-19 vaccine doses a week, he believes by the end of the year "everyone who has had the opportunity for a vaccine will have had it".

"I would expect by Christmas that we would be seeing a very different Australia to what we are seeing now," Mr Morrison said on Wednesday.

"What we are seeing overseas is once countries reach that much higher vaccination rate, that gives their governments a lot more options in the suppression limitations they have to use to deal with the virus.

"Lockdowns become a thing of the past when you are at that level.

[MickG0105]

I very much doubt anyone who attended on Saturday would of been tested.
If they were getting crook enough, they may not have had a choice.

[Torukmacto]

Like the mother of the 2 removalists many will avoid doing anything . Too scared to get taken away from their family and communities . Especially minorities with language barriers . Goverments all around the world are dealing with this issue .

[Lead Balloon]

$450 billion, $600 billion - call it $525 as an estimate with ±15 percent error bars. Is the spend more than the value of statistical life figure? Yes, most assuredly. Is it 'orders of magnitude higher'? No, most assuredly not.
<snip>.I've not used the phrase "orders of magnitude higher". And so what if the spend is not of that magnitude?

You're supposed to be a numbers and facts person. The fact is that, on your numbers, the ever-increasing costs of the response are already greater than the statistical costs of the estimated lives saved. Leave the value judgment as to what to do or not to do about that to others.

[Angle of Attack]

I saw a good article the other day were an epidemiologist likened the Vaccine hesitancy, snobbery against AZ as,

”It’s like a Captain has announced the plane is going to crash into the water, and some of the passengers are arguing over what brand of life jacket they will fit”

I thought it was a good analogy anyway…..

[SOPS]

And what were we saying about protesters and Covid Tests……..???????


https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/alleged-horse-puncher-refuses-covid-swab-test-in-custody/news-story/aab0ec2a94d34a65902c65e28e223cf0

[Lookleft]

Then let him languish in solitary so that he can exercise his "freedoms". They don't want to follow government directions during a health crisis yet will appeal their rights to another pillar of democracy. Breaking the law has consequences.

[MickG0105]

I've not used the phrase "orders of magnitude higher".
No, you haven't. Others here have.

Leave the value judgment as to what to do or not to do about that to others.
That is exactly what I have advocated previously.

It’s never as simple as the personal liberty VS lockdowns argument is put (by most people).



It's probably more correctly a personal liberty versus public health argument in that the lockdowns are being used to pursue public health outcomes. Thus it boils down to the discussion/debate that first started a few millennia ago when people first started organising themselves into societal groups - how you reconcile the trade-off between the individual and the group.

Unsurprisingly, some people are firm advocates for individual rights first, while others believe that the welfare of the group is more important. To tap Aurelius, it's the bee and the hive discussion. At the end of the day it comes down to personal values. And frankly who is anyone on this forum to tell anyone else that their values are wrong?

I think that it is fair to say that what some people see as an unreasonable imposition on civil liberties others see as a reasonable public health measure. Those pesky values again. You do you.
. Added bolding to original.

[Lead Balloon]

Excellent!

[PoppaJo]

Melbourne did well protecting its regions and the rest of the country in the back half of last year, barely one single leak.

I am concerned as she clearly is trying to save face by not adhering Dans advice by keeping metro/regional apart, and the rest of us next month around the nation or soon will suffer the consequences of that. Not to mention the good folks of regional NSW.

Her treasurer would be better knifing her now rather than waiting till next year, and get these decisions done. Saving face now avoided.

[Foxxster]

Melbourne did well protecting its regions and the rest of the country in the back half of last year, barely one single leak.

I am concerned as she clearly is trying to save face by not adhering Dans advice by keeping metro/regional apart, and the rest of us next month around the nation or soon will suffer the consequences of that. Not to mention the good folks of regional NSW.

Her treasurer would be better knifing her now rather than waiting till next year, and get these decisions done. Saving face now avoided.


oh I am glad others have noticed Dominic not so subtly positioning himself in the background. He made sure it was leaked he was against the extended lockdown though back in early July which he thought was a popular stance to take then but maybe not so much now given how things have played out.

but yes, it’s a matter of when not if he becomes leader of the nsw libs. I think Gladys may move aside early next year once, hopefully the worst of this ****storm is behind us. You can bet though that every stumble she makes is being clapped by some. Not just on the other side of the political fence.

meanwhile at the Olympics, the ENTIRE Australian track and field squad has been put into isolation due to a member of another country’s team who was training nearby testing positive.

[TimmyTee]

I wonder how many of those emanated from last weekends rally?
The timing is about right.

No chance. Day 13 tests after contact appear to be a common positive test result point, combined with the fact that the event being only 5 days ago - and NSW tests results running way behind a day after testing, aaand NSW test result cutoff being 8pm yesterday, we are still to see any impact the nuffs have had on Sydney’s outbreak.

[SOPS]

Every time the West has had a lock down, Perth has been shut off from the regions. During one lock, there were even borders within regions to help ensure no spread. I don’t know what Gladys is trying to do, but it’s not working.

[Foxxster]

Every time the West has had a lock down, Perth has been shut off from the regions. During one lock, there were even borders within regions to help ensure no spread. I don’t know what Gladys is trying to do, but it’s not working.

probably trying not to appear racialist. We must be culturally sensitive you know. Language barriers and they are much more family focused. Nothing to do with blatantly sticking their middle fingers up…

oh, for the woke and snowflakes, some.. but it only takes a few, or a few hundred or thousand who are just like that. 50 going to one house after a death. 46 positive. For example.

[SOPS]

The Army isn’t getting involved.

It’s not The Day of The Triffids…

NSW Police have just asked the Feds to bring in the Army. Perhaps it is the Day of the Triffids.

[Foxxster]

NSW Police have just asked the Feds to bring in the Army. Perhaps it is the Day of the Triffids.

good band,

[Xeptu]

Some of the States use the Defence Force all the time when there's a lockdown. It's not Marshal Law though, they are not armed. When they do quarantine compliance checks (knock on your door) instead of two police officers, it's one and one. It works, you get a lot more boots on the ground.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

I hope their armed , most of the residents in those areas are .

[Xeptu]

The police officer is, oddly enough, people seem to be less threatened by the presence of a soldier than a police officer,

[Chronic Snoozer]

The police officer is, oddly enough, people seem to be less threatened by the presence of a soldier than a police officer,

Unless he's SAS........:p

[Lead Balloon]

Oh dear.

Just heard some expert on the radio talking about some analysis that shows that even with 80% of Australia's population vaccinated, the number of cases arising from the unvaccinated would still overwhelm ICU capacity, which is around 7,500 beds at full 'surge capacity'. (Mick: Please track down the source and quote the facts and conclusions.)

So, it seems Australia needs to increase the number of ICU beds, not by orders of magnitude but a sh*t tonne extra wouldn't go astray.

But wait, we don't have the capacity to train enough doctors and nurses to run the extra ICUs.

Solution: The solution for all economic seasons. Immigration! We'll import the extra doctors and nurses. Too easy! And that'll also keep the demand on housing and increase house prices. Sweet!

But wait, we've shut the borders.

Solution: We'll bring all the extra doctors and nurses in (without their families of course) as a matter of priority (but only temporarily of course) and put them into super-secure, leak-proof quarantine facilities for a few weeks.

Oh dear.

[ChrisJ800]

Sorry but if its their choice to remain unvaccinated for no vailid medical reason then they should not take an ICU bed in front of someone who has been vaccinated or is young and not yet elligible for a vax or is unable to get a vax for valid non religious reasons.

[Lead Balloon]

Yep. When the ambulance screeches to a halt at the door of the emergency department of the hospital, they'll add "have you chosen not to be vaccinated for Covid 19" to the existing list of questions asked in deciding whether to provide or refuse treatment to someone in a medical crisis.

Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Double vaccination in Israel - the most vaccinated country in the world - Efficacy against Delta only 42%..............

[Lead Balloon]

Mick: On your definition of "efficacy", is the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?

[Foxxster]

Double vaccination in Israel - the most vaccinated country in the world - Efficacy against Delta only 42%..............
you forgot the other bit..

Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE) and BioNTech (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/22UA-DE)’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain,


However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

however yes, the vaccine appears to be less effective probably because of..


Data released by the Health Ministry last week suggested that people vaccinated in January have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, the effectiveness was at 75%.

so over time the vaccines are becoming SIGNIFICANTLY less effective and in quite a short space of time. Only 6 or 7 months. Which probably means TWICE yearly boosters. But I am no virus expert. So perhaps a third shot lasts longer??


given supply issues of Pfizer and equally important the logistics of vaccinating the entire or 70%, 80% of the population. This appears to becoming an endless merry go round. Without the merry bit.

A one way ticket to Mars is looking more and more appealing

[mattyj]

It probably prevents deaths..but it doesn’t prevent infection or transmission..so it’s not a vaccine, it’s a therapy.

otherwise it’s great..gst stuck in.
Americans are mandating masks again even for the vaccinated. This will never end.

[Foxxster]

Not all bad news actually. The study was on a small sample. I think it is a watch this space, and maybe cross fingers a bit.

https://www.salon.com/2021/07/28/pfizer-vaccine-less-effectiveness-fluke/

[SHVC]

Mystery case just found in Vic, short, sharp, snap, quick lockdown number 6 is coming to quash this highly virulent fast moving, deadly, never seen before Delta virus. Can’t mess around with delta. NSW will soon release its own virulent strain Gamma.

[KRviator]

Well this is encouraging...:yuk:Australia should maintain its COVID-zero strategy until 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated, including 95 per cent of people over 70, according to a report from the Grattan Institute.
<SNIP>
Ms Wood said with a concerted effort, an 80 per cent vaccination rate is "ambitious, but it is achievable".
"Our numbers suggest you could get to 80 per cent by the end of the year if a vaccine becomes available for children under 12 and we distribute that in schools," she said. "If we don't get approval in the next few months for that type of vaccine, it will take longer … we think certainly by the end of March 2022 is achievable." Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-29/covid-vaccine-rate-80-million-lottery/100334190)March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...

Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...:rolleyes: :ugh:

[Foxxster]

Well this is encouraging...:yuk:March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...

Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...:rolleyes: :ugh:

well I guessed this time next year for 80%… and see above on how the vaccines appear to rapidly lose their effectiveness. That is a wait and see while they do a wider study. But still.

[mattyj]

I’m gonna wait until the first booster comes out and just get that..because I’m outside the box dude

[MickG0105]

Mick: On your definition of "efficacy", is the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?

It's not my definition. Per the diagram below there are a variety of endpoints for measuring efficacy. The Israeli number is for infection, likely symptomatic infection. From a public health perspective the most important efficacy endpoint is protection against severe disease and death.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1893x591/screenshot_20210725_105923_adobe_acrobat_e662a44543deb9ec916 40a43c9601f957489fad6.jpg


Protection against severe disease is typically measured by hospitalisation rates and ICU admission rates. On those efficacy endpoints both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are proving to be around 90 percent effective. I haven't refreshed the numbers recently but last week, Israel had 11,200 active cases but only 101 hospitalisations and 24 ICU admissions. Out of that case load they were only seeing one or two deaths a day.

That is an extraordinary improvement over their pre-vaccine experience. The pre-vaccination hospitalisation rate in Israel ran at about 15 percent; a week ago is it was less than one tenth of that (that is, one order of magnitude better) at around 1 percent.

While not perfect, the seat-belt analogy might be appropriate - compared to not wearing one, your risk of serious injury or death is markedly lower. I don't know how many people who walk away from what would otherwise be a fatal prang and complain about the sore shoulder and the bruising across their midriff as an indicator of poor efficacy.

[Lead Balloon]

Great.

So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"

[Foxxster]

Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9835793/Pfizer-reports-dose-vaccine-boost-protection-against-Indian-Delta-variant.html

[MickG0105]

Just heard some expert on the radio talking about some analysis that shows that even with 80% of Australia's population vaccinated, the number of cases arising from the unvaccinated would still overwhelm ICU capacity, which is around 7,500 beds at full 'surge capacity'. (Mick: Please track down the source and quote the facts and conclusions.)

Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source (https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/212/10/surge-capacity-intensive-care-units-case-acute-increase-demand-caused-covid-19)).

I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.

If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).

The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.

If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.

In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.

I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.

[MickG0105]

Great.

So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"
See above. In Israel a recently released study based on an unspecified number of people shows Pfizer to have a 40-odd percent rate of efficacy against symptomatic infection with the delta-variant and a 90-odd percent rate of efficacy against serious illness.

[MickG0105]

Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9835793/Pfizer-reports-dose-vaccine-boost-protection-against-Indian-Delta-variant.html
Note the efficacy endpoint being addressed - efficacy in preventing any Covid-19 infection that causes even minor symptoms.

[bigsmelly]

Also, bear in mind that at the start of the pandemic, when we had no treatment and no vaccines ,the discourse on vaccines was that vaccine with 50% efficacy in preventing death would be worthwhile.
The fact that they are in the 90% range against the original variant has exceeded all expectations.

[machtuk]

Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

[dr dre]

Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

Fatality rate 10-20 times higher (https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid) than the flu, massive increase (https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid) in excess mortality, much higher risk of complications (https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4677) than the flu, higher rate and duration of ventilation (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210319125433.htm).

NSW is already cancelling elective surgery (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icu-cases-reach-highest-level-as-non-urgent-surgery-suspended-at-major-hospitals-20210728-p58dq1.html) as ICUs are filling up. That’s with 2500 active cases. NSW has a population similar to Sweden, favourite of the “let it rip” brigade, and they were at 200k active cases at their peak. NSW has 60 already in the ICU with a total of 900 ICU beds, which are generally close to full with the expected users during normal times.

What do you think the capacity is going to be like if active cases get beyond 2500?

[rattman]

you forgot the other bit..

Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE) and BioNTech (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/22UA-DE)’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain,


And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff

US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ

And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-study-finds-lower-antibody-activity-against-delta-variant-at-single-dose-but-vaccines-still-work-164351

Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others

[Lead Balloon]

Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source (https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/212/10/surge-capacity-intensive-care-units-case-acute-increase-demand-caused-covid-19)).

I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.

If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).

The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.

If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.

In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.

I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.
Well done, Mick! You passed my test.

It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).

Will be interesting to hear what comes out of the 'National Cabinet' today.

[Foxxster]

And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff

US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ

And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-study-finds-lower-antibody-activity-against-delta-variant-at-single-dose-but-vaccines-still-work-164351

Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others


which is what I said in that and subsequent posts. I even posted in my subsequent comment a link to an article that goes into some detail about the Israeli numbers and casts doubt on the low number in that study. And also a link about the uk in relation to a third Pfizer dose which also contains uk efficiency numbers. I suggest you read those. It seems like more work needs doing on the Israeli number as it was a very small sample. And as someone else pointed out, it depends what effectiveness you are measuring against. Any infection no matter how mild or against serious infection requiring hospitalisation or causing death. The vaccines do seem very effective against the latter two, but there does appear to be potentially a drop off in effectiveness, potentially greater than might have been expected.

[43Inches]

Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

Currently 33,700 cases vs 922 deaths is 2.7% mortality rate, complication rate is as high as 25%. 1 in 40 death rate if you like.

Flu is currently 36 from 22,000 cases, which equals 0.01% mortality rate, complication rate almost 1%. 1 in 1000 death rate.

[Foxxster]

Meanwhile, another study on blood clots from Pfizer versus AstraZeneca shows they both have the same rate. However, people getting Pfizer were on average older and had more underlying conditions so who knows…,I hope we don’t get a GREAT BIG SCARE CAMPAIGN against Pfizer now like we have had against AstraZeneca.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9838639/AstraZeneca-vaccine-risk-blood-clots-Pfizers-study-finds.html

[MickG0105]

Well done, Mick! You passed my test.

So, elephant stamp? early mark this afternoon?


It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).


That sounds (typically) overly conservative. There's not a bad analogue for letting it rip at or below 50 percent vaccination rates - the Netherlands. They were at about 45 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated when they lifted essentially all restrictions back in mid-June. Unsurprisingly, cases spiked rapidly such that after a month they started reimposing restrictions. Nearly 90 percent of their cases are delta-variant. Of note though is that hospitalisations and ICU admissions did not blow out on them. Their case prevalence rate is sitting just below 1 percent (about 171,000 active cases) and they are seeing hospitalisation and ICU admission rates of 0.28 percent and 0.1 respectively.

Applying that ICU admission rate here, we'd need 2.4 million active cases (nearly 10 percent case prevalence) just to fill our baseline 2,400 ICU beds. Even if you were to be super conservative and double the Netherlands ICU admission rate that means you would have to see a case prevalence rate of 4.7 percent; even entirely unvaccinated countries on their worst days weren't seeing that sort of number but they weren't dealing with the delta-variant back then either.

You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.

[Gnadenburg]

At some stage, this debate will be about our economy and the unsustainablity of current fiscal practices and the vulnerability of our exports to China.

I cannot believe Australians would wish this national debt on their children or grand-children. Is there a belief we won't face more challenges as a nation soon, requiring crippling further debt? Discounting Black Swan events, likely scenarios include serious rearming and the cost and politics of Global Warming.

Yet many Aussies I talk to happy to have their hand out for government cash.

[Foxxster]

You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.

yep. So around about December . Hopefully summer holidays and Xmas won’t be ruined then. We need to hope there are no supply issues with Pfizer.

We are also due to get Moderna late in the year but they appear to be having supply issues now.

Moderna has pushed back its late-July vaccine shipment schedule for South Korea to August due to supply problems that will affect other countries waiting on Moderna shots, a South Korean health official says.

The issue is due to the vaccine manufacturing process involving Swiss contract drugmaker Lonza and a Spain-based company which does bottling work for the Moderna vaccine, the official, Lee Sang-won, told a briefing on Tuesday.

Moderna is also set to supply Australia with 25 million doses from late 2021. The agreement is for 10 million doses of their current vaccine, and 15 million doses of booster or variant-specific versions of the vaccine.

[Lead Balloon]

You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.My guesstimate, which I hope is wrong, is that Scotty will announce 80% as the magic number, hopefully with some nuance around essential workers and the aged and otherwise particularly vulnerable.

Better to aim for 80% and open up at e.g. 75% in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances, than aim for 70% and realise that in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances it would not be prudent to open up at that number.

And along the way the ongoing consideration of and disquiet over the ever-increasing real costs paid versus the value of the projected lives saved may result in the target - whatever it is - being mugged by reality.

[Agent_86]

170 in NSW today

[43Inches]

Late last year the numbers banded around were 80% vaccination coverage to be effective. This being due to 60%-70% vaccine efficacy, ie 80% vaccine with 70% efficacy results in about 55-60% effective coverage. The 80% being regarded as the highest possible figure due to anti vaxxers and those not able to vax.

[DirectAnywhere]

From today's ABC COVID blog.

Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.

The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.

The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.

Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said even with the high vaccination rates, mask regulations and occasional lockdowns would still occur if the borders were opened.

"Restrictions will be required, even with high levels of vaccination," Professor Hellard said.

"We will occasionally need to bring in restrictions to control an outbreak, to stop people getting sick and dying from COVID."

National Cabinet is meeting today to discuss the vaccination levels required to do away with lockdowns.

The Doherty Institute has provided modelling on the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated before lockdowns are no longer needed.

[43Inches]

As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.

[MickG0105]

From today's ABC COVID blog.
Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.

The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.

The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrews’ attendance at National Cabinet later today.


It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. ... The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).
Terrific. We'll get into a shoot-out between competing modelling. Always helpful. I wonder if Anna and Mark will be coming along with their own forecasts and modelling.

The Burnett Institute numbers - 95 per cent of people aged over 60 plus 70 per cent for those under 60 (presumably down to 18 year olds) - equate to just shy of 60 percent of the total population or 75 percent of the adult population.

[dr dre]

Thanks to the moronic clowns who protested last weekend this has now happened:

Dr Kerry Chant has said someone who attempted to attend the protest last week in the CBD, tested positive for covid the next day. Police turned the individual away and fined them- but they don’t know if the continued onto the protest. @9NewsAUS

[SOPS]

Thanks to the moronic clowns who protested last weekend this has now happened:

Dr Kerry Chant has said someone who attempted to attend the protest last week in the CBD, tested positive for covid the next day. Police turned the individual away and fined them- but they don’t know if the continued onto the protest. @9NewsAUS (https://mobile.twitter.com/cokeefe9/status/1420918246551670788)

Why are we not surprised???!!!!!

[Lead Balloon]

As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.
Then, as I’ve said before, Australia should continue with random capital city lockdowns and interstate and international border closures, indefinitely. Great for the economic numbers!

[SOPS]

And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!

There is no hope!!!’n

[minigundiplomat]

As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.

Don’t eat all those crayons, Champ.

[43Inches]

Then, as I’ve said before, Australia should continue with random capital city lockdowns and interstate and international border closures, indefinitely. Great for the economic numbers!
30th Jul 2021 12:47

Well no, the numbers would obviously be better given no lockdowns, however the effect of lockdown is nowhere near what is being thrown about. One simple reason, lockdowns are not structural problems with the economy, they are just road humps. As soon as the lockdown ends, the pent up spending needs blow out and pump cash back into the system. When a lockdown occurs people might not earn as much, but they have nothing to blow it on anyway. A company goes broke, sad yes, another one starts to replace it, as the need is there. Businesses start and fail regularly, in good times its about 2/3rd fail each year. As has been said before more is also being spent in the domestic market due to no foreign travel which is proping it up. Its like saying Virgin failed because of covid, we all know its not true, if anything covid gave Virgin the ability to reorganise itself under another company and keep most of its workforce due to jobkeeper.

As far as jobs go, there are heaps of adds for low paid work at the moment, any casual out of work should walk into another job almost instantly, if you are genuine about it. I'm associated with supermarkets right now and its a constant stream of new employees.

Now local retail, that has been a sad story for some time due to internet sales, if you havn't pivoted to online sales yet you were in a terminal decline anyway.

If you work in Aviation and inbound tourism, toughen up, its going to be a long road out, nothing is going to change that. But the majority of the economy has adapted to the situation.

Don’t eat all those crayons, Champ.

Can't, you ate them all first, then started on the tide pods.

[Torukmacto]

And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!

There is no hope!!!’n
Going to run out of fingers trying to stop the leaks in this dam wall . %70-%80 vaccinated is the new game in town .

[patty50]

Yep. When the ambulance screeches to a halt at the door of the emergency department of the hospital, they'll add "have you chosen not to be vaccinated for Covid 19" to the existing list of questions asked in deciding whether to provide or refuse treatment to someone in a medical crisis.

Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.


Fortunately the Health Minister and Chief Health Officer aren’t as sadistic as some of the posters here and are welcoming people to hospitals if they need healthcare irrespective of how they caught the virus or their vaccination status.

Would be interesting to see the empty hospitals if we rationed healthcare based on “he should’ve known this might happen”. No more alcoholics, smokers, obese people, motorbike riders, DIY-ladder-climbers.

[PoppaJo]

National Cabinet might as well just be abandoned as old mate out west has other ideas vs what the PM outlined this evening. WA could be locking down for years and years to come. This industry will basically fall over if that’s the case.

Lockdowns are, really, until we're all vaccinated, the only thing that works.

"When we hit the 80 per cent mark, lockdowns would only be for unusual circumstances in specific locations, but 80 per cent vaccination is very high."

Mr McGowan also announced ships from "high risk" countries will now be blocked from entering his state's ports.

While the measures were "robust and draconian", he said, they're necessary to protect West Australians.

[Foxxster]

Australians will move to the next phase of dealing with the pandemic - potentially out of lockdowns and internal border restrictions - when 70 per cent of the eligible national population as well as each state and territory is fully vaccinated.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the 70 per cent target after a marathon national cabinet meeting on Friday.

Australia is currently in Phase A, where lockdowns and quarantine are still required to deal with outbreaks

“We will get to the next phase when Australia reaches 70 per cent of the eligible population who are double dose vaccinated,” Mr Morrison said on Friday.

“We will get to Phase C when we hit 80 per cent.”

“Australia will get this done by working together. The targets are there for us all to achieve and for us all to work towards.”


Mr Morrison said lockdowns in Phase B would be less likely but still possible, and international border caps would remain, but inbound passenger caps, which were recently halved, would be restored back to around 6000 a week.

There would be a larger cap for vaccinated returning travellers coming to Australia in Phase B.

The prime minister said there would be “special rules” for those who got vaccinated, where restrictions would be eased. The details of that are still to be worked through, he said.

“Because if you're vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk. You are less likely to get the virus. You are less likely to transmit it,” Mr Morrison added.

Targeted lockdowns in Phase C

In Phase C, Mr Morrison said lockdowns would only be “highly-targeted” and would not be imposed metropolitan-wide.

“Where there are vulnerable communities - they may be in remote communities, they may be in particular communities within a city, where there may be cultural elements that may be involved in this,” he said.

“It may be a particularly vulnerable population, then you need to leave yourself and the states and territories for public health reasons, they will need to leave themselves that option.”

In Phase C, there will be no cap on the number of fully vaccinated Australians returning to the country.

Caps will also be raised for students, economic and refugee visa holders.


Australians who’ve been fully vaccinated will be able to travel overseas in this phase, and there could be unrestricted travel to new countries that Australia launches a “travel bubble” with.

The final phase involves opening up international borders, and only high-risk inbound travellers will be required to quarantine.

“Once we get above the 80 per cent, the scientific evidence shows that we're largely then in a place where COVID can be managed consistent with other infectious diseases and of course, we don't apply those types of restrictions to the flu or many other things like that,” Mr Morrison said.

In a reference to the UK, Mr Morrison Australia’s plan was not about “freedom days”.

“We've always been in Australia taking our own path to this.”

[SHVC]

I like the part where vaccinated ppl get privileges, I wonder what they will be.

[Lead Balloon]

Tuned out as soon as Scotty's lips started moving. Fortunately the Health Minister and Chief Health Officer aren’t as sadistic as some of the posters here and are welcoming people to hospitals if they need healthcare irrespective of how they caught the virus or their vaccination status.The proclivities of the NSW Health Minister and Chief Health Officer are neither here nor there, and are their business.

The fact is that an ICU won't know why someone who's lobbed into its lap and, in any event, won't be able to ask if the patient can't talk. It has ever been thus, and Covid 19 doesn't change it.

[mattyj]

And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!

..if you can push a wheelbarrow all week with this “terrible affliction” without needing a day in bed..I’d rather catch it than a runny nose

[SOPS]

..if you can push a wheelbarrow all week with this “terrible affliction” without needing a day in bed..I’d rather catch it than a runny nose

The point you seem seem to miss.. your ‘ runny nose ‘ could kill the person you pass it on to. What part of that don’t you understand ??

[aviation_enthus]

and international border caps would remain, but inbound passenger caps, which were recently halved, would be restored back to around 6000 a week.

So no real difference for those of us on the “wrong side” of the border….

The current 50% cut is unsustainable and is lower than ANY POINT in the last 18 months.



There would be a larger cap for vaccinated returning travellers coming to Australia in Phase B.


Let’s hope this actually happens. This is the only thing that will make the system “fair”.

[MickG0105]

Meanwhile, another study on blood clots from Pfizer versus AstraZeneca shows they both have the same rate. However, people getting Pfizer were on average older and had more underlying conditions so who knows…,I hope we don’t get a GREAT BIG SCARE CAMPAIGN against Pfizer now like we have had against AstraZeneca.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9838639/AstraZeneca-vaccine-risk-blood-clots-Pfizers-study-finds.html
A word of caution on that study (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3886421), it looked at a sample that included 945,941 who had received at least one shot of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine (778,534 with 2 doses), compared to 426,272 who had received the AstraZeneca vaccine. They are small samples when looking at such a relatively rare complication.

[mattyj]

The point you seem seem to miss.. your ‘ runny nose ‘ could kill the person you pass it on to. What part of that don’t you understand ??


well since the runny nose I was referring to was not Covid then it’s gonna be a whole new world for you brother

[Bend alot]

I like the part where vaccinated ppl get privileges, I wonder what they will be.

Yes with this passed on 21/6/2021.

https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021B00078

[Cafe City]

Well they’ve really made a rod for their own backs there. 70%? 80%?
The likelihood of achieving either of those figures seems pretty low given the complacency demonstrated so far. Let’s face it, Aussies are living in a cotton-wooled society now. Why take responsibility for yourself when you can do whatever you like without consequences?
Will be interesting to see how they back away from those targets when it becomes apparent they’re not happening. Fatal leadership error. March-April 2022 and the rate still sitting at less than 60% likely should make it an interesting election lead-up.

PS. I’m not disputing that these are the figures we need to get to but can’t see it happening- ever.

[SHVC]

Did anyone else notice something odd about that QLD press conference?

Gladys, Dan whenever they have their ms they always push for ppl to get vaccinated. I don’t think any of those QLD clams even mentioned go get vaccinated.

[rattman]

Did anyone else notice something odd about that QLD press conference?

Gladys, Dan whenever they have their ms they always push for ppl to get vaccinated. I don’t think any of those QLD clams even mentioned go get vaccinated.

Probably saw what you wanted to see. Because young certainly did mention getting the shot. Sure the didn't repeat adnausium like other states

https://youtu.be/dQiHlzl1CH4?t=818 even linked to the time she said it

wierd links about 10 seconds early

[SHVC]

Well the time I watched it was never mentioned. She just blabbered on about LGAs and talking in circles.

[Foxxster]

I heard that the WA premier has already rejected the PMs plan and isn’t buying into the lockdown plan possibly more. Wonderful, when is the bloody politics going to stop. Rhetorical question there.

[KRviator]

I heard that the WA premier has already rejected the PMs plan and isn’t buying into the lockdown plan possibly more. Wonderful, when is the bloody politics going to stop. Rhetorical question there.Yep, pretty much...

WA Premier Mark McGowan says the state will reserve its right to enact lockdowns after national cabinet agreed on vaccination targets to progress to the next stage of the nation's COVID-19 roadmap.

But Mr McGowan said that would not necessarily change WA's approach. "Lockdowns would still be possible where needed," he said. "Lockdowns are, really, until we're all vaccinated, the only thing that works."He also left out border lockouts, holding Citizens and families as economic hostages of his state, destroying families, preventing funerals or Citizen's attending funerals, playing politics with peoples mental health & making a mockery of the concept of a National Cabinet. They're all things he's done and appear to work too! "When we hit the 80 per cent mark, lockdowns would only be for unusual circumstances in specific locations, but 80 per cent vaccination is very high," Mr McGowan said. "We still reserve the right to lockdown in specific locations if absolutely necessary."So it might be a country town, it might be a local government area, something of that nature."Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/mark-mcgowan-says-wa-reserves-the-right-to-lockdown/100336734)

[LapSap]

"Lockdowns are, really, until we're all vaccinated, the only thing that works."

Please define "ALL" Mr McGowan.

[Green.Dot]

McGowan will never admit it but truth is he doesn’t give a toss about the rest of Australia and nor do MOST of his voters.

WA is living the high life economically and it’s citizens have had a level of freedom unparalleled through all of this.

McGowan and his troops are in no rush to change anything. An uncontrollable outbreak is the only thing that will change their opinions/actions.

[43Inches]

McGowan will never admit it but truth is he doesn’t give a toss about the rest of Australia and nor do MOST of his voters.

WA is living the high life economically and it’s citizens have had a level of freedom unparalleled through all of this.

McGowan and his troops are in no rush to change anything. An uncontrollable outbreak is the only thing that will change their opinions/actions.

This is the only thing that matters, McGowan is doing what WA wants, WA isn't doing anything wrong. You can laugh, poke fun at or whatever but the state is functioning, free and making money. I disagree with how they are going about it, but it matters nowt what I think as I don't live there, and nothing they are doing is affecting me or my community. Especially if any of you clowns live in Sydney at the moment it might be best to just let them be.

[Green.Dot]

but the state is functioning, free and making money.
as I said in my post

[601]

Well they’ve really made a rod for their own backs there. 70%? 80%?
The likelihood of achieving either of those figures seems pretty low given the complacency demonstrated so far. Let’s face it, Aussies are living in a cotton-wooled society now. Why take responsibility for yourself when you can do whatever you like without consequences?
Will be interesting to see how they back away from those targets when it becomes apparent they’re not happening. Fatal leadership error. March-April 2022 and the rate still sitting at less than 60% likely should make it an interesting election lead-up.

Gee he can't do anything right in the eyes of those who don't wish to see.Unless you have been living under a rock, every one, according to the media, has been asking for the number.

He provided the number and is immediately slammed.

Some people need to grow up.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Well they’ve really made a rod for their own backs there. 70%? 80%?
The likelihood of achieving either of those figures seems pretty low given the complacency demonstrated so far. Let’s face it, Aussies are living in a cotton-wooled society now. Why take responsibility for yourself when you can do whatever you like without consequences?
Will be interesting to see how they back away from those targets when it becomes apparent they’re not happening. Fatal leadership error. March-April 2022 and the rate still sitting at less than 60% likely should make it an interesting election lead-up.

PS. I’m not disputing that these are the figures we need to get to but can’t see it happening- ever.

Disagree - we’ve been slow to start, but are now doing pretty well - rate of vaccination is good for an end of year result.

Some will need motivating to get the jab, but that’s pretty easily done with a few “vaccinated people can do XYZ….”

For once I think we’re reasonably
on track and we will be sitting pretty well come end of the year / early new year.

[WingNut60]

Gee he can't do anything right in the eyes of those who don't wish to see.Unless you have been living under a rock, every one, according to the media, has been asking for the number.

He provided the number and is immediately slammed.

Some people need to grow up.
I don't know exactly what ScoMo said (and not inclined to chase it up, because it'll mean doodle-squat) but I'm fairly certain that the gentleman from the Grattan Institute that I listened to on Thursday evening said that they had determined that a vaccination level of 80% was necessary with a vaccination level of 95% for Australians over the age of 60.
That was a vaccination level of 80% of all residents - not just for adults.

Let's see how we go with that by Xmas.

[MickG0105]

I don't know exactly what ScoMo said (and not inclined to chase it up, because it'll mean doodle-squat) but I'm fairly certain that the gentleman from the Grattan Institute that I listened to on Thursday evening said that they had determined that a vaccination level of 80% was necessary with a vaccination level of 95% for Australians over the age of 60.
That was a vaccination level of 80% of all residents - not just for adults.

Let's see how we go with that by Xmas.
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.

80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.

Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.

So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1220/screenshot_2021_07_31_17_26_35_1_bffec5983815413a9cf76751382 a47aa5be1aa3d.png
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1212/screenshot_2021_07_31_17_26_41_1_74308cb39c232646788b674be8c 0853cd6b3b969.png

It is just sheer lunacy to be setting down "targets" like that. It would be easier to just say "never".

This stuff needs to be tested against reality and implementability. Israel seems to be managing okay with lower vaccination levels; we need to be going to school on their experience.

[Lead Balloon]

Yep.

Due to minimum post lengths: I agree.

[WingNut60]

The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.


My bad. I was driving in afternoon traffic and in rain that was "hissing" down.

On another note, I also heard (I think) a report of Pfizer being used (tested??) on a child (children??) as young as two years old some place in the U.S.

[SHVC]

When will the lunacy of these governments stop! I want the choice on how I live I don't want inept premiers and Prime Minister now and the next one telling me they're keeping me safe, I can do that. Good on QLD for going hard again over one case I'm sure the small business owner who is about to throw 10-20 maybe 30K of food out thanks you immensely also. Lets just hope the spread of this highly contagious Delta variants does not spread because you locked down without notice and sent 1000s off ppl to que in the supermarkets all together the pictures I seen there is no 1.5m spacing due everyone wanting to get the same packet of bog wrap, again how much do you need for 3 days is there an alternate use let me know please.

The scariest thing I see now, the acceptance of these lock downs, its so normal to Australians and the fear I have this is the future well beyond. Sco Mo 4 step plan out of this I have come to realize today, this will not end any time before 2022 and well in to 2023 if we are lucky. from and aviation perspective even scarier there will come a time where one of the two will fall and be a memory which one, I don't know.

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.

[MickG0105]

My bad. I was driving in afternoon traffic and in rain that was "hissing" down.

No problemo.


On another note, I also heard (I think) a report of Pfizer being used (tested??) on a child (children??) as young as two years old some place in the U.S.
Yes, both Pfizer and Moderna are in Phase II and III trials in the US with under 18 year old cohorts that includes children aged two to 11. University of Pittsburgh and Stanford are two of the paediatric trial sites. The Pfizer trials are the further advanced, due to report in September.

[KRviator]

The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.

80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.

Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.

So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.An excellent post of crunched numbers, Mick...So now my question become...What happens if (when) we don't reach those target percentages? No international reopening? No State reopening? Ongoing lockdowns until someone storms parliament like they did Washington?

Aviation lives on What if's and has multiple levels of redundancy for most every critical system or failure mode...So What if we don't reach those targets? What's Phase A of Plan B?

[Tucknroll]

It’s also not just 70% or 80%.

These targets need to be hit on both a national and state level. So highly populous states can’t positively affect the overall number if their vaccination rates are ahead of the rest.

[Bend alot]

This is the only thing that matters, McGowan is doing what WA wants, WA isn't doing anything wrong. You can laugh, poke fun at or whatever but the state is functioning, free and making money. I disagree with how they are going about it, but it matters nowt what I think as I don't live there, and nothing they are doing is affecting me or my community. Especially if any of you clowns live in Sydney at the moment it might be best to just let them be.


The last lock down WA had many scoffed at it and are over it.

His power is limited and if the test comes. He will not be supported in ANY form of long lockdown (+3 weeks).

He is a goose. Only one card to play.- lets watch the "economy" then.

He has torched all other income, other than crays.

Ban on COVID ships into the Pilbara?, No they are welcome.

[601]

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
Maybe that statement highlights our problem, not the Premier's or the PM's but ours.

[Ladloy]

The last lock down WA had many scoffed at it and are over it.

His power is limited and if the test comes. He will not be supported in ANY form of long lockdown (+3 weeks).

He is a goose. Only one card to play.- lets watch the "economy" then.

He has torched all other income, other than crays.

Ban on COVID ships into the Pilbara?, No they are welcome.
come over to sunny sydney if you like. Come check out the ramifications of a politically motivated half arse lockdown

[43Inches]

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.

You are in the wrong country if you think you have much say in that. Australia is a Democratic Socialist country, that means the community elects leaders to decide what is best for the community, not for the individual. The only country remotely closer to the Libertarian society you are thinking of is the USA, even that is far from being able to "do what you want" free of the state. And to be honest, you don't want to be a true Libertarian, providing your own medical care and general infrastructure might be harder than you think.

What you are really saying is "I want the ability to do what I did before Covid", which is an ever changing thing, you just notice the big changes like Covid settings.

You get to choose how you live your life within the boundaries of Australian rules and society. Right now the rules are adjusted for pandemic settings, just like they are for wartime or terrorism etc.

[Chris2303]

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.

Unfortunately you are a human living on earth so you don't have that choice

[Gnadenburg]

You get to choose how you live your life within the boundaries of Australian rules and society. Right now the rules are adjusted for pandemic settings, just like they are for wartime or terrorism etc.

Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

If any Australian thinks this pandemic response is what life will look like in confrontation with the Communist Party of China, they need to carefully research where our vulnerabilites as a nation present, ever so neatly exposed by our COVID response.

Right now, I've awoken to the mayhem of living on border towns on the NSW/QLD border with new sets of pandemic rules. Few are and will be following them.

[Xeptu]

Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

I'm not sure that's quite right, Roughly 17% of the population don't care, have no intention of following any covid rules, they are in every state, we see or hear about them during lockdowns.
Then there's those on the borders where for logistical reasons it's too hard to comply even though they are not anti anything.

NSW has a serious problem now, is it fair to say they have lost control of it and it's going to be a long haul back. I don't see the remaining states changing their game plan to accommodate NSW's problem.

I don't think we can call that a nation divided just yet.

[MickG0105]

Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

Health and Defence have markedly different Constitutional allocations of accountability and consequent organisational alignments.

[Lead Balloon]

I'd forgotten that you'd dodged the vertical fiscal imbalance and s 96 of the Constitution....

You should google that and find out its consequences for the Commonwealth's practical power.

Scotty could, but doesn't want to, step up in this time of national crisis.

[DHC8 Driver]

Unfortunately you are a human living on earth so you don't have that choice


I agree -

being a member of society is not optional just as paying tax is not optional. Similarly, not agreeing with the law does not exempt you from obeying it.

For those members of society (willing or reluctant) who choose to engage in civil disobedience as a means of protest, they should do so in the full knowledge that they will likely suffer consequences.

For any involved in aviation, they should be aware that those consequences may compromise their ASIC privilege.

https://www.asic.net.au/question/what-if-an-applicant-has-a-criminal-record

[DHC8 Driver]

When will the lunacy of these governments stop! I want the choice on how I live I don't want inept premiers and Prime Minister now and the next one telling me they're keeping me safe, I can do that. Good on QLD for going hard again over one case I'm sure the small business owner who is about to throw 10-20 maybe 30K of food out thanks you immensely also. Lets just hope the spread of this highly contagious Delta variants does not spread because you locked down without notice and sent 1000s off ppl to que in the supermarkets all together the pictures I seen there is no 1.5m spacing due everyone wanting to get the same packet of bog wrap, again how much do you need for 3 days is there an alternate use let me know please.

The scariest thing I see now, the acceptance of these lock downs, its so normal to Australians and the fear I have this is the future well beyond. Sco Mo 4 step plan out of this I have come to realize today, this will not end any time before 2022 and well in to 2023 if we are lucky. from and aviation perspective even scarier there will come a time where one of the two will fall and be a memory which one, I don't know.

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.

What exactly do you mean by you “want the choice on how I live?

[Ladloy]

Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

If any Australian thinks this pandemic response is what life will look like in confrontation with the Communist Party of China, they need to carefully research where our vulnerabilites as a nation present, ever so neatly exposed by our COVID response.

Right now, I've awoken to the mayhem of living on border towns on the NSW/QLD border with new sets of pandemic rules. Few are and will be following them.
It's ok our courageous PM will be safe and sound in Hawaii saying "I don't hold the guns mate" while drip feeding the defence force its resources

[MickG0105]

I'd forgotten that you'd dodged the vertical fiscal imbalance and s 96 of the Constitution....

You should google that and find out its consequences for the Commonwealth's practical power.
The only reason that I hadn't responded to that is that it is as utterly inane as the nationhood power you were touting. The notion that a Federal government is going to coerce state compliance during a public health crisis via withholding funding is ridiculous. For starters it would fail to pass the Senate, you know that arm of the legislature known as 'the States' House'. Same applies to Section 96.

It's just another version of a unicorn, very pretty in imagination but does not exist in the real world.

That sort of nonsense would only get a run in the sort of authoritarian state that most rail against. Or are you happy with authoritarianism just so long as those in authority do what you want?

[43Inches]

Wartime powers can mean anything. In WW2 the Federal Government used the emergency powers to snatch more control from the states because of the disjointed state of the nation. So if you think the current iteration lacks control, think about how much less power they had pre WW2. Federation could quite easily have been several separate countries within Australia rather than one nation. The larger states governed as independent nations effectively, with their own separate armed forces and governance pre 1901. Victoria had its own navy, ships were HMVS (His Majesties Victorian Ship), including a coastal battleship, infantry, artillery and mounted horse regiments etc. This is why Australian states wield the power they do.

You would have to have much higher death rates going on for any emergency powers to be enacted against the states in a pandemic. There would have to be proof of an undeniable threat to the public that would warrant it.

[Torukmacto]

Dutton would be a better war time prime minister , anti war protestors locked up and online chat sites banned for national security reasons . Getting a covid vaccination or not would bring a smile to your face as you stood in line for compulsory conscription injections . Pressure ramping up this week on getting vaccinations!

[Lead Balloon]

The only reason that I hadn't responded to that is that it is as utterly inane as the nationhood power you were touting. The notion that a Federal government is going to coerce state compliance during a public health crisis via withholding funding is ridiculous. For starters it would fail to pass the Senate, you know that arm of the legislature known as 'the States' House'. Same applies to Section 96.

It's just another version of a unicorn, very pretty in imagination but does not exist in the real world.

That sort of nonsense would only get a run in the sort of authoritarian state that most rail against. Or are you happy with authoritarianism just so long as those in authority do what you want?It’s so telling when the self-proclaimed “numbers” person drifts into politics and starts using words like “utterly inane” and “nonsense” to describe matters other than statistics.

We are living in an authoritarian state, now. If you could get your head out of the numbers for a moment, you’d see that many Australian are being told, on pain of criminal liability, that they can’t visit their families and friends and can’t travel more than a specified number of kilometres from home. There are police and ADF members on the streets enforcing those restrictions. It suits Scotty that a lot of the consequent ‘blowback’ hits the state premiers rather than him.

The Commonwealth coerces the states, financially, all the time. And the government doesn’t need to make a law that can be stopped by the Senate, to achieve the outcome. And a spending bill that originates in the Senate can be blocked by the government in the House.

The Commonwealth has enough power to take over and run the response on a nationally consistent basis. Its failure to do so is a political decision, plain and simple. It’s probably a blessing in disguise though, because we can only speculate what a clusterf*ck it would be if Scotty or what’s-his-name on the other ‘side’ stepped up.

[43Inches]

The Commonwealth has enough power to take over and run the response on a nationally consistent basis. Its failure to do so is a political decision, plain and simple. It’s probably a blessing in disguise though, because we can only speculate what a clusterf*ck it would be if Scotty or what’s-his-name on the other ‘side’ stepped up.

They had only recently taken control of aged care for national consistency. They could not even run a consistent approach to protect those from Covid. The first outbreak in Sydney saw the vulnerabilities in aged care and then the same vulnerabilities were exposed in Melbourne as if no-one had learned a thing. They finally got the message when it started spreading in Melbourne again this year and increased the vaccination rates. Luckily Victorias state government had their act together by then to soften the spread to them while they acted.

[Lead Balloon]

We need to separate the question whether it may be done constitutionally, in principle, on the one hand, and the question whether a government has the requisite competence to do it on the other.

Federal governments have been pretty mediocre for quite a long time. And they'll happily remain that way whilever most of the public accept (or give up in frustration while watching) the blame-shifting games. Just look at quarantine.

But be in no doubt: A pandemic is the paradigm example of a matter that falls squarely within the nationhood power and, even if it didn't, the Commonwealth has more than enough power to 'encourage' the states to implement what the Commonwealth wants (e.g. some semblance of 'order' in the aged care sector). It's a political choice and - I'll say it - political cowardice not to.

[SOPS]

Another question. What has happened to the AHPPC? In the beginning we heard about them all the time.. but lately it is like they don’t exist.

[minigundiplomat]

It’s so telling when the self-proclaimed “numbers” person drifts into politics and starts using words like “utterly inane” and “nonsense” to describe matters other than statistics.

We are living in an authoritarian state, now. If you could get your head out of the numbers for a moment, you’d see that many Australian are being told, on pain of criminal liability, that they can’t visit their families and friends and can’t travel more than a specified number of kilometres from home. There are police and ADF members on the streets enforcing those restrictions. It suits Scotty that a lot of the consequent ‘blowback’ hits the state premiers rather than him.

The Commonwealth coerces the states, financially, all the time. And the government doesn’t need to make a law that can be stopped by the Senate, to achieve the outcome. And a spending bill that originates in the Senate can be blocked by the government in the House.

The Commonwealth has enough power to take over and run the response on a nationally consistent basis. Its failure to do so is a political decision, plain and simple. It’s probably a blessing in disguise though, because we can only speculate what a clusterf*ck it would be if Scotty or what’s-his-name on the other ‘side’ stepped up.

Sorry mate, I respectfully disagree and don’t ascribe that level of cunning to Scomo.

He has been weak as p1ss throughout; announcing National cabinet decisions only to have the state premiers walk them backwards as soon as they leave the room.

Sadly for Australians, the rest of Scomo’s cabinet are mediocre at best, the opposition is anything but, and the state premiers have been playing politics from the start and running rings around Scotty from Marketing.

There will be an enquiry or royal commission in due course, but as we saw with the Coate and Brereton enquires, the vigour with which they are pursued varies.

Before the inevitable #istandwithdan responses pour in, I don’t really care.

[Mach E Avelli]

I agree -

being a member of society is not optional just as paying tax is not optional. Similarly, not agreeing with the law does not exempt you from obeying it.

For those members of society (willing or reluctant) who choose to engage in civil disobedience as a means of protest, they should do so in the full knowledge that they will likely suffer consequences.

For any involved in aviation, they should be aware that those consequences may compromise their ASIC privilege.

https://www.asic.net.au/question/what-if-an-applicant-has-a-criminal-record
Wise comment indeed.

The majority of society everywhere appears to want to be vaccinated so that life can return to something approaching normal. To those who say we can't reach the 80% that the current government says is the target, how come the Israelis and Brits are already close to achieving that? Our government's slow response to getting vaccines is certainly one reason why we are way behind the civilized world in this regard but surely we can achieve 80% by early next year.
As for the minority who oppose mandatory vaccination in certain jobs and in order to have certain privileges such as unrestricted travel, it will be interesting to see which wannabe government at the next election wins on such a platform.
Despite the rabble in our midst I think enough sensible Australians will just get the bloody vaccine to get on with life. They have had enough.

[Lead Balloon]

Sorry mate, I respectfully disagree and don’t ascribe that level of cunning to Scomo.No need to apologise. We'll have to agree to disagree.

Nobody gets to where Scotty is without being as cunning as a sh*thouse rat.

[Bend alot]

Wise comment indeed.

The majority of society everywhere appears to want to be vaccinated so that life can return to something approaching normal. To those who say we can't reach the 80% that the current government says is the target, how come the Israelis and Brits are already close to achieving that? Our government's slow response to getting vaccines is certainly one reason why we are way behind the civilized world in this regard but surely we can achieve 80% by early next year.
As for the minority who oppose mandatory vaccination in certain jobs and in order to have certain privileges such as unrestricted travel, it will be interesting to see which wannabe government at the next election wins on such a platform.
Despite the rabble in our midst I think enough sensible Australians will just get the bloody vaccine to get on with life. They have had enough.

Just over 66% of Israelis have received at least one dose of vaccine as of July 11. At the current pace, 70% would have been vaccinated by August 5.

In Israel the vaccination rate had plateaued in April as new COVID infections were on a months-long steady decline. But when the arrival of Delta brought a spike of cases in June, the government jumped in quickly with a new campaign urging teenagers to get the shot and parents to vaccinate their children aged 12 to 15.

They hit a wall in April and May. By May 29, the rate of daily new vaccinations had them on pace to hit 70% sometime in autumn 2022.

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/VACCINATION/xklvyxrdgpg/