All borders to reopen.

[SHVC]

Queen P has closed QLD to NSW entirely. The last of the NRL family members were flown up to QLD late last night. Go you QLD you good thing!

[SOPS]

QLD shutting to NSW. WA shutting to SA. Qantas talking of stand downs again. Rex almost grounded. Well done Gladys. If only you had gone early and hard.. the Gold Standard ain’t looking to gold at the moment.

[jrfsp]

QLD shutting to NSW. WA shutting to SA. Qantas talking of stand downs again. Rex almost grounded. Well done Gladys. If only you had gone early and hard.. the Gold Standard ain’t looking to gold at the moment.

Its a replay of VIC last year....

[SHVC]

QLD shutting to NSW. WA shutting to SA. Qantas talking of stand downs again. Rex almost grounded. Well done Gladys. If only you had gone early and hard.. the Gold Standard ain’t looking to gold at the moment.


To be fair, Sydney mainly eastern suburbs mainly Bondi have flouted the lockdown from the get go. Those morning pictures on the tv showed ppl out side claiming to be “engaged in physical activity” increased ten fold. You can’t run with a coffee in hand Sydney.

[Turnleft080]

QLD shutting to NSW. WA shutting to SA. Qantas talking of stand downs again. Rex almost grounded. Well done Gladys. If only you had gone early and hard.. the Gold Standard ain’t looking to gold at the moment.
SOPS you just found a new market. HBA-DRW.

[43Inches]

I think you're somewhat missing my point. Whether the nation's wealth is spent on submarines or aged care, it is only created by a sufficient element of the population being out and about labouring, paying taxes and buying goods & services.

The point being you could drop the subs and have significant budget savings. The Australian domestic market has surprised me how resilient it has been to the pandemic, and not from printing money. Strong switch to delivered goods and services and the housing market going the reverse of what was expected, all shows Aussies have lots of excess cash available to drive the local market. Just because aviation is tanking is not sinking the country, like said before the basics of mining and our generated national wealth is so far protecting us. People are not spending money in foreign countries and instead on domestic produce, meaning more local wealth is staying put in Australia.

If you asked me last year what the economy would be like this year with continued lockdowns etc, I would have agreed with the doom and gloom.

[mattyj]

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school

[KRviator]

It's not 'this' generation, it's the politicians governing said generation. I think you'd find a great many people are prepared to take responsibility (read, 'accept & manage the risk') for their own health in order to have an open Australia - I know I am - however, the politicians are trying to protect people from themselves, which is a cop-out if you ask me...

I just did a 2.4 round-robin in a plane I built in my back shed from bits that originally resembled a Meccano set. To some, that's lunacy, hurtling through the atmosphere several kilometers above the hard earth in something you built yourself. But to pilots & the home-built crowd, it barely rates a mention, for it's about appropriate (personal) risk-management, ie wearing boots, long pants, carrying a first aid kit & PLB, having ADS-B and lodging a flight plan so 'they' know where to look if I don't come home... But we can't be seen to allow people to accept responsibility for their own health & wellbeing these days, can we? That's too libertarian and 'Murican.

If the pollie's and their lapdog CHO's were truly concerned about saving lives, they'd ban tobacco in Australia outright and save 7,000 lives each and every year - but everyone here knows that'll never happen...

[Green.Dot]

Just heard on the TV the stats for vax at the major Sydney vaccination hub a couple days ago:

On one day:

50 AZ jabs given. 9500 Pfizer.

The winner is Pfizer, the loser is Australia.

[Turnleft080]

Just heard on the TV the stats for vax at the major Sydney vaccination hub a couple days ago:

On one day:

50 AZ jabs given. 9500 Pfizer.

The winner is Pfizer, the loser is Australia.
Plus more bad news with 2 in their forties passing today after their first jab of AZ.

[Transition Layer]

SOPS/jrfsp,

Are you guys one and the same? Your posts seem to follow each other and always agree on harsh lockdowns and previously how good WA is at “crushing the virus”. Would love to know what your role in the aviation industry is, cause everyone else I know in this industry thinks the moron running WA has been an over-reactive muppet for the last 16 months, and shoulders a lot of the blame for the segregated country we now find ourselves in.

The other Premiers had no choice but to follow suit in closing borders to appease their own constituents once they saw what it did for McMaoan’s (thanks Betoota) approval rating. Plenty of things were let slip last year which suggested the border closures are nothing to do with health advice, like WA being a net exporter of tourism dollars.

[43Inches]

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school

The same state controls and border restrictions happened in 1919 for the Spanish flu, so this is nothing new. City quarantining for disease control is something that has been around for a long time. Claiming that this generation is somehow different, well just isn't true. At least this time we have vaccines available in the 2nd year.

PS; Vietnam and Korea war was vs Communists, not Socialists, most of Europe is Democratic Socialist based, including the UK, France and Germany.

[Green.Dot]

SOPS/jrfsp,

Are you guys one and the same? Your posts seem to follow each other and always agree on harsh lockdowns and previously how good WA is at “crushing the virus”. Would love to know what your role in the aviation industry is,


SOPS drives trains. He told us how great it was compared to aviation a while ago.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x330/995afb32_ad91_4e1b_8fa1_09f65c72424e_70c79cdb4b5201cf32582c0 14f5ca87322108f73.jpeg

[MickG0105]

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school
Given the propensity of this virus to disproportionately kill those over a certain age and the current ages of those generations who were willing to sacrifice their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and fascism seems like there's at least a few who seem to be happy to see them doing the sacrificing yet again. Sounds entirely fair, doesn't it?

[dr dre]

SOPS/jrfsp,
Are you guys one and the same? Your posts seem to follow each other and always agree on harsh lockdowns

I think they more gravitate towards short and sharp lockdowns rather than drawn out ones that just end up imposing harsh restrictions for weeks ala Gladys. Even in Melbourne now, they went quickly and all bar 2 of today’s positive cases were in lockdown for their infectious period, a good result. NSW??? Who knows, they didn’t go hard quick enough and it seems the residents of Sydney aren’t taking it seriously enough.

[Gnadenburg]

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school

Just going back the one generation, my father and father in law are both Vietnam Veterans. Yep, agreed, very angry at the state of play and the virus phobia of a seemingly soft nation.

However, you know the first thing they did? They got vaccinated! Although they don't want to see freedoms and opportunities vanish, along with economic wealth, nor do they want to be needlessly infected or be the excuse for keeping the nation locked up. I guess they still see beyond themselves? Unlike the reluctant vaxers. I think the anti-vaxers they'd just like to shoot.

[junior.VH-LFA]

How many Australians sacrificed their lives in Vietnam, Europe and Korea in wars against tyranny, socialism and facism..seems strange that this terrified generation isn’t willing to risk anything to be able to go to work or school

It's hilarious that you think it's young peoples fault that we are locked down.

[SHVC]

This is the middle aged fault, my generation. Power hungry stop at nothing to stay in power. I want this to stop. Make a date if you’re not vaccinated by that date learn how to live/hide or what ever I want to move on and not for work purposes only. I tired of being told I can’t go there,I can’t come in unless I have the tick, You need to wear a mask etc etc etc.

[Aussie Bob]

A Tasmanian man in his 40s has died after receiving his first dose of AstraZenecaHe was a confirmed case of thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), and his death will be investigated by the coroner.

According to an update from the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), the death was one of two in the last week.

The second was a 48-year-old woman from Victoria.


From the ABC news web site today.
Two deaths in the last week and you blokes wonder why there is hesitancy in Australia?

[SOPS]

For the record, I know these lock downs are bad for the industry. ( I spent 35 years in aviation.) But if we have to have them, hard and quick is the way to go. Not like Gladys .. hesitating and not being sure what to do ( egged on by Scomo) to the point where she has now lost control and the situation in NSW could go on for months.

[MickG0105]

From the ABC news web site today.
Two deaths in the last week and you blokes wonder why there is hesitancy in Australia?

This latest announcement brings the total of deaths linked to the vaccine to six people out of 6.1 million doses administered across the nation. (https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/tga-confirms-two-new-deaths-linked-to-astrazeneca-vaccine/video/34bb923c63e5d687aa3774710926bc29)

That's a vaccine that is 99.9999 percent safe. You've got to wonder what else these people are hesitant about?

[mattyj]

Since they’re terrified of a virus that kills almost no one stands to reason they will be terrified of a vaccine that kills almost no one

[Aussie Bob]

That's a vaccine that is 99.9999 percent safe. You've got to wonder what else these people are hesitant about?

I will let Matty answer this for you :-)

Since they’re terrified of a virus that kills almost no one stands to reason they will be terrified of a vaccine that kills almost no one

[43Inches]

Since they’re terrified of a virus that kills almost no one stands to reason they will be terrified of a vaccine that kills almost no one

And the more people throw flippant statements like that around, downplaying the aggressiveness of this virus, another group of the less educated jump in a truck, drive around Australia spreading it further, possibly paying for it with the death of their loved ones. I read these comments and I think Australia might be the lucky country, but its also the stupid country, no wonder the government gives us no choice.

[Cloudee]

From the ABC news web site today.
Two deaths in the last week and you blokes wonder why there is hesitancy in Australia?

And yet there are over 20 road deaths each week and there is no driving hesitancy.

[43Inches]

Its quite simply the political beat up over it last year and the media sensationalising it. Otherwise average Joe wouldn't care at all, like most other vaccines and just get it done. Hence why a good public health program needs the media fully on side, so you can quell most of the attention seekers and headline grabbers.

[Turnleft080]

Its quite simply the political beat up over it last year and the media sensationalising it. Otherwise average Joe wouldn't care at all, like most other vaccines and just get it done. Hence why a good public health program needs the media fully on side, so you can quell most of the attention seekers and headline grabbers.

Speaking of last year. If you remember lockdown 1 and most of 2, the narrative and sole purpose of lockdowns was to bend the curve. I repeat bend the curve.
That came out of Sutton and Andrews every presser in March /April last year. We all know about hotel quarantine and tracing was in it's infancy. However they did
bend the curve according to WHO protocols. So if that narrative was still in play today, all borders would be open and contact tracing controlling cases under the say 30 mark.
However, all the health departments (the bureaucrats) decided to throw all that in the bin and go for suppression hence the anguish we have today.

Also some of us suggested back then, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. That was without a vaccine at the time. Wuhan strain. Deadly
So I will ask that same question today, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. Now 70% vaxed over 70yo protected . Delta strain. Not as Deadly.
But all comes back to that word suppression.

[MickG0105]

Since they’re terrified of a virus that kills almost no one ...
Almost no one?
US 625,000+ dead
India 420,000 dead
Brazil 545,000+ dead
Mexico 237,000+ dead
UK 128,000+ dead
​​​​​​...

I will let Matty answer this for you :-)
They say misery loves company but it looks like folly travels in pairs.

Do you fellows share a bridge or do you deal with those pesky goats separately.

[43Inches]

Also some of us suggested back then, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. That was without a vaccine at the time. Wuhan strain. Deadly
So I will ask that same question today, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. Now 70% vaxed over 70yo protected . Delta strain. Not as Deadly.
But all comes back to that word suppression.

The Andrews gov tried that coming out of the very first lockdown and were lulled into a warm fuzzy feeling by the federal gov that it would be easy to track and trace the virus and keep the community levels low. What they found was that this was not the case, the virus got loose in a school, and in the casual workforce due to the socio-economic locale of the breakout. Before you could blink it was in several aged care facilities that were still in complete lockdown and numbers swelled to 700 cases and deaths mounted, one of those aged care facilities was not more than 500 mtrs from me and 15 km from the nearest outbreak spot. I still have no idea how the virus got into that one. It was unnerving to see the area roped off and spacesuits walking around throwing out bedding and fittings into a giant plastic lined skip. Sydney was lucky as its breakout locations were easily contained back then. This is why Melbourne moved to suppression as it was clear you could not isolate vulnerable people within a community from the community, as the facilities require the community to operate. Also you then have the million plus Victorians over 50 and vulnerable who are not in care and definitely can not isolate from the community indefinitely.

This year the tables were turned, in a way, Melbourne had learned from harsh reality that they had to stomp on it early and hard, which has worked every-time since. Sydney tried to play politics in the last month rather than deal with it and is now paying the price.

If we had 80% vaccinations, no prob, non event, but its the opposite of that presently.

[Xeptu]

Also some of us suggested back then, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. That was without a vaccine at the time. Wuhan strain. Deadly
So I will ask that same question today, Why not isolate the elderly and vulnerable and keep the young ones working. Now 70% vaxed over 70yo protected . Delta strain. Not as Deadly.
But all comes back to that word suppression.

Because 80% of our population want "zero community transmission" particularly while the vaccination rate is so low. when those two numbers come closer together then policy will be
re-assessed. Until then, we do it the way we're currently doing it. There is still plenty of room for improving the way we're doing it.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

From the ABC news web site today.
Two deaths in the last week and you blokes wonder why there is hesitancy in Australia?

Because we are a bit irrational when it comes to assessing risk. This was a good article on it: https://www.smh.com.au/national/worried-about-astrazeneca-me-too-the-way-we-think-about-risk-might-be-the-problem-20210720-p58beh.html

[Muttley Crew]

You guys keeping posting those numbers without ever including this statement on the exact same page:

FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. A review of available clinical information, including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records, has not established a causal link to COVID-19 vaccines.

You keeping repeating those figures but never include that statement. Every time you do someone sensible here points out that CDC statement, but you guys continue to post that rubbish again and again as if you’ve just made some incredible discovery the “brainwashed sheeple” aren’t aware of.

Can’t you see people on this page aren’t falling for this?

Using what is nothing more than a disclaimer on the VAERS website as support for your specious argument while ignoring the acknowledged fact of deaths with (or after having had) Covid 19 being counted as deaths from Covid 19 in this country and others, thereby inflating death tolls and adversely influencing public opinion, is hypocritical and disingenuous at best. At worst it is grossly misleading and potentially damaging to the ignorant who, amazingly, seem to find the basis for their beliefs in, of all places, this forum. Your skill is in cherry-picking factoids and assembling them in such a way as to imply authority and a veracity beyond question, to suit your own preferred perspective. Despite urging others to acknowledge some vague proposition of your own you won't acknowledge or clarify your true motivation for your attempts to convince the uncertain.

And out of interest ( again ) can reluctant vaxers post as to whether they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due to COVID?

I suppose they can. If you're insisting that they do so, let's also ask that the "vaxers" also "post as to whether (or not) they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due to COVID19" vaccination? I know of several who have but doubt they're contributing on here.

And here you post as self appointed Lord of the peanuts.
Condescending hypocrite.

My apologies, wong, obviously I hadn't thought of you, specifically, when I referred to the desperate, ignorant, occasionally rabid, knuckle-dragging mouth-breathers of the peanut gallery and am saddened to learn you consider yourself one of them. If it helps, I firmly doubt your knuckles truly drag.

[dr dre]

What a valuable contribution Muttley, can you please post a link from a credible source where you verify these “facts”:

Using what is nothing more than a disclaimer on the VAERS website

while ignoring the acknowledged fact of deaths with (or after having had) Covid 19 being counted as deaths from Covid 19 in this country and others, thereby inflating death tolls and adversely influencing public opinion,

[PoppaJo]

It’s curfew time Gladys.

The stories being put on talkback this morning the mind boggles. Home to Home transmission will be impossible to contain. Can they not go a few weeks of their lives without going to someone else’s house? Is it really that bloody hard?

[blubak]

It’s curfew time Gladys.

The stories being put on talkback this morning the mind boggles. Home to Home transmission will be impossible to contain. Can they not go a few weeks of their lives without going to someone else’s house? Is it really that bloody hard?
Couldnt agree more,its not what i or anyone else wants but as you say 'is it really that bloody hard'.
The same can be said about groups of people exercising together at bondi,is it that bloody hard to exercise alone or if with someone to stay a couple of metres apart?

[SHVC]

You can’t exercise with a coffee in hand. Bondi are treating it as a joke.

[ScepticalOptomist]

You can’t exercise with a coffee in hand...

Walk, talk, drink coffee. Perfect way to get in some exercise.

[Xeptu]

Just out of interest, to the pilot group, hard wired for contingency. How many have a bugout plan in the event of a breakout strain that turns out to be fatal, vaccinated or not.
That's a pre-planned course of action and the trigger, not what you're going to do on the day when the news breaks.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Just out of interest, to the pilot group, hard wired for contingency. How many have a bugout plan in the event of a breakout strain that turns out to be fatal, vaccinated or not.
That's a pre-planned course of action and the trigger, not what you're going to do on the day when the news breaks.

Bugout of what? Aviation? Society? There’s **** loads of stuff that can kill us including life itself. What are you afraid of?

[Xeptu]

well we need something to spice up the thread abit. It's got boring with the same old crap, Time for some new crap.

[Gnadenburg]

Just out of interest, to the pilot group, hard wired for contingency. How many have a bugout plan in the event of a breakout strain that turns out to be fatal, vaccinated or not.
That's a pre-planned course of action and the trigger, not what you're going to do on the day when the news breaks.

My survival template for Martian invasion should hold up for this scenario.

[WingNut60]

Just out of interest, to the pilot group, hard wired for contingency. How many have a bugout plan in the event of a breakout strain that turns out to be fatal, vaccinated or not.
That's a pre-planned course of action and the trigger, not what you're going to do on the day when the news breaks.
My plan? Wait for another vaccine!

[ScepticalOptomist]

My plan? Wait for another vaccine!

Seems like the Aussie way nowadays is to cower, hide, and wait for someone else to do something! :-)

[Foxxster]

Heard a professor from Harvard medical school on radio this morning. Made the most sense of anyone. Simply put he said get the vulnerable vaccinated, those over 60. Then open up. No lockdowns. We are just about at that point now. He also said getting children vaccinated was not a good option as they are at more risk of the vaccine than the virus. But what do we have nsw saying today, get the 12 plus year old kids vaccinated. How many 12 year olds have died worldwide of WuHu flu.

lockdowns cause massive financial and mental harm and delay other treatment for serious disease.

we should get the over 60s vaccinated which could be achieved by the end of August. Then no more lockdowns in any state, no more border closures.

as an aside, as we all knew about the Queensland border closure, apparently a hotel on the border near tweed heads was booked a week ago for 80 police starting today. So yes the border closure was pre planned a week ago, just after all the league families arrived .

[KRviator]

What a valuable contribution Muttley, can you please post a link from a credible source where you verify these “facts”:The UK counts dying from any cause within 4 weeks of a positive test in their "Covid Deaths" summary. I am led to believe they have now moved exclusively to (2), but it still does not differentiate someone dying with Covid from someone dying because of Covid.

There are 2 definitions of a death in a person with COVID-19 in England, one broader measure and one measure reflecting current trends:
1) A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and either died within 60 days of the first specimen date or died more than 60 days after the first specimen date, only if COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate
2) A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date. Source (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/916035/RA_Technical_Summary_-_PHE_Data_Series_COVID_19_Deaths_20200812.pdf)You could die from a heart attack or stroke within those 28 days and it'll still count towards their "Death by Covid" statistics. I do not have the time nor inclination to try to find and go through their published cause-of-death statistics to try to determine any significant differences from previous years for each listed cause of death. You're more than welcome to if you so desire...

[Xeptu]

My survival template for Martian invasion should hold up for this scenario.

War of the Worlds 2019, two seasons, not a bad sci-fi show, keeps you engaged.

[mattyj]

Hey Foxster:

He also said getting children vaccinated was not a good option as they are at more risk of the vaccine than the virus. But what do we have nsw saying today, get the 12 plus year old kids vaccinated. How many 12 year olds have died worldwide of WuHu flu

From the CDC:

“331 minors under 18 have died with Covid out of 626,000 deaths overall, and 41 minors under 18 have died after receiving the Covid vaccine out of 6,000 deaths overall.”

[Foxxster]

Hey Foxster:



From the CDC:

“331 minors under 18 have died with Covid out of 626,000 deaths overall, and 41 minors under 18 have died after receiving the Covid vaccine out of 6,000 deaths overall.”

Kids, look at the 0 to 9 year old group. 12 year olds, I suspect most of those under 18 would be nearer 18. There are also complications associated with vaccines.

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/COVID-CFR-by-age.png

Interestingly, the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19 (the distribution of the proportion of deaths per age group among all deaths), is similar between Italy, Japan, and Spain, even though the number of deaths are quite different among them23 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8#ref-CR23),24 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8#ref-CR24),25 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8#ref-CR25) (Fig. 1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8#Fig1)). The reported number of deaths was 3 in 0–9 years old (yo), 0 in 10–19 yo, 11 in 20–29 yo, 58 in 30–39 yo, 257 in 40–49 yo, 1,051 in 50–59 yo, 3,107 in 60–69 yo, and 25,038 in 70 + yo in Italy as of May 13, 2020. In Japan, that was 0 in 0–9 yo, 0 in 10–19 yo, 0 in 20–29 yo, 2 in 30–39 yo, 8 in 40–49 yo, 16 in 50–59 yo, 44 in 60–69 yo, and 330 in over 70 + yo as of May 7, 2020. In Spain, that was 2 in age 0–9 yo, 5 in 10–19 yo, 23 in 20–29 yo, 61 in 30–39 yo, 198 in 40–49 yo, 607 in 50–59 yo, 1669 in 60–69 yo, and 16,253 in over 70 + yo as of May 12, 2020.

but I think I have misquoted him. Or got two separate interviews mixed. So ignore the children vaccine bit, apologies.

here is the link to the actual interview.

https://www.2gb.com/harvard-professor-explains-why-sydney-could-end-its-lockdown-now/

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

The UK counts dying from any cause within 4 weeks of a positive test in their "Covid Deaths" summary. I am led to believe they have now moved exclusively to (2), but it still does not differentiate someone dying with Covid from someone dying because of Covid.

You could die from a heart attack or stroke within those 28 days and it'll still count towards their "Death by Covid" statistics. I do not have the time nor inclination to try to find and go through their published cause-of-death statistics to try to determine any significant differences from previous years for each listed cause of death. You're more than welcome to if you so desire...

I believe you might be being a little disingenuous here, saying ‘The UK counts…’. Your source is a Public Health England document, which is not the same as the Office of National Statistics. Your PHE document itself states, as a limitation of its data, that ‘the PHE data series does not report cause of death, and as such represents deaths in people with COVID-19 and not necessarily caused by COVID-19.’ It’s quite open about that. Whereas the ONS data (which I would assume is the official figure) has to have had Covid recorded on the death certificate.

[WingNut60]

Seems like the Aussie way nowadays is to cower, hide, and wait for someone else to do something! :-)
The question was "what is your plan" - not "what is your plan to save the world".
I have no control over border closures, international or domestic.
I am employed and have been throughout the current pandemic - thank you Mark.
I will continue to weather whatever comes my way - because I have no control or influence over it.
And nor do you.

And I'm certainly not waiting expecting you to do anything of any import, other than run off at the mouth.

[43Inches]

Bugout of what? Aviation? Society? There’s **** loads of stuff that can kill us including life itself. What are you afraid of?

Seems like the Aussie way nowadays is to cower, hide, and wait for someone else to do something! :-)

I love these two comments, bravado in the face of a virus. "Why if that virus dares comes near me, I'ma punch it in the nose" Give that man a gun and let him loose.

Now what if the virus turns out to be a conservative virus and not a liberal or even worse a damn socialist virus with communist aspirations, will you still stand up to it. I will be brave in the face of this virus, that will stop it, I will show it I'm not afraid of it, yeah, take that virus. I stand proud and will take one for the team for all human kind, because me catching the virus with millions of others will, er, hmm... what will that do? Oh, spread the virus more...... well who would've known.

Reminds me of Borat going around with a pot trying to squash Covid.

You could die from a heart attack or stroke within those 28 days and it'll still count towards their "Death by Covid" statistics. I do not have the time nor inclination to try to find and go through their published cause-of-death statistics to try to determine any significant differences from previous years for each listed cause of death. You're more than welcome to if you so desire...

By your statement that means no one would have died due to AIDS, because you actually don't die from AIDS itself, it just cripples your immune system to the point something benign like the common cold kills you. Covid can do the same, some die directly from the virus, some die by being significantly weakened by the virus and succumbing to something simple and normally non life threatening, or suffering a cardiac arrest or stroke due to the strain on the body. A medical professional will then report a cause of death with details, such as factors leading to the death.

[PoppaJo]

Is she stupid? Her crystal ball is telling her to ease restrictions in other parts of Sydney while holding them in the West. Geez that’s got success written all over it. Fark me.

Borders and this industry won’t open to this state until we get weeks off zero. I read into this presser, to which that is now impossible.

The next time I hit wheels to that Tarmac down there probably won’t be until 2022.

[SOPS]

NZ just closed to OZ for at least the next 2 moths. Keep that Gold Standard going Gladys … it’s working well😱😱

[Ladloy]

Onya gladys. Gold standard.

[rattman]

Go look at her interview on the kyle and jackie show. That aged like milk

(apparently I cant link twitter)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1413624954537476096

[Green.Dot]

Go look at her interview on the kyle and jackie show. That aged like milk

(apparently I cant link twitter)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1413624954537476096

Love the two statements “Our public is used to doing things in a certain way” and “it’s a question of trust”.

Unfortunately for Gladys she relied on both of those things and they let her down. Moral of story- trust no one and make sure the rules are set in place to cater for the stupidest village idiot.

[Muttley Crew]

What a valuable contribution Muttley, can you please post a link from a credible source where you verify these “facts”:
I'd be very surprised if you didn't know this already and were not simply choosing to play at being ignorant rather than address the issue substantively. Sutton admitted such months ago and the press have largely chosen not to challenge this misleading anomaly.

You seem to be an arbiter of which sources are credible and which aren't and you could easily search for sources yourself (although I'm sure this wouldn't fit your 'narrative') but here's one that came up (https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2020/opinion/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19)after a single search attempt; it's on the La Trobe University website which wouldn't ordinarily be my first choice of source but I'm disinclined to conduct your research for you any further than that and let's face it, we both know you're already well aware of this inconvenient (for you) truth, anyway.

To sum up, you appear to be comfortable with deaths with being reported as deaths from Covid19 but your sense of propriety is offended by the disclaimer which suggests the mere possibility, not the certainty, of some stats on the VAERS website being erroneous. Please tell us all how that's not hypocritical and disingenuous.

[neville_nobody]

Moral of story- trust no one and make sure the rules are set in place to cater for the stupidest village idiot.

Free society can't operate like that.

[Green.Dot]

Free society can't operate like that.

hence why COVID is such a b*tch

[43Inches]

Free society can't operate like that.

Road rules are a common example of set for idiots. Unfortunately that's how the modern world has to run now, partially because their are idiots and also because smarter indivduals take advantage of lax rules and get away with illegal activities.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

To sum up, you appear to be comfortable with deaths with being reported as deaths from Covid19

I’d still like to see some actual evidence that this is what’s happening, and not just something that’s repeated often enough that people just believe it’s true.

[Foxxster]

Looks like Qld could be in trouble. Flight attendant tested positive but had done 6 flight to regional areas in Qld.

[SOPS]

Looks like Qld could be in trouble. Flight attendant tested positive but had done 6 flight to regional areas in Qld.

Its in Dreamworld as well

[Turnleft080]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.

[SOPS]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.


I don’t know if that will happen.

[Xeptu]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.

You can dream lol. None of the other states will

[Torukmacto]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.

Has to happen at some point, Australians not ready physically (vaccinated) or emotionally (living in denial). It’s part of our existence and the day is coming when the government and the people will say you had your chance at getting vaccinated and good luck.

[blubak]

Has to happen at some point, Australians not ready physically (vaccinated) or emotionally (living in denial). It’s part of our existence and the day is coming when the government and the people will say you had your chance at getting vaccinated and good luck.
Yes i have been thinking that its not that far away.
I read an article this morning where Dan Andrews said he wants 2022 to be a year without lockdowns & this will happen by having anyone who wants to be vaccinated being able to do so & then basically the people who dont want it will find there will be many places/events they will be unable to attend.
So,like you say 'good luck after you have had your chance'

[chookcooker]

Yes i have been thinking that its not that far away.
I read an article this morning where Dan Andrews said he wants 2022 to be a year without lockdowns & this will happen by having anyone who wants to be vaccinated being able to do so & then basically the people who dont want it will find there will be many places/events they will be unable to attend.
So,like you say 'good luck after you have had your chance'
I think he said something along the lines of “we’re not locking down to protect you, if you won’t protect you”.

[Torukmacto]

I think he said something along the lines of “we’re not locking down to protect you, if you won’t protect you”.

Not a big Dan fan but that is spot on .

[Ladloy]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.
I'd be happy if pfizer was readily available. Young people have sacrificed enough in this pandemic to be risking blood clots because the PM ****** up.

[ScepticalOptomist]

I'd be happy if pfizer was readily available. Young people have sacrificed enough in this pandemic to be risking blood clots because the PM ****** up.

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?

[Green.Dot]

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?

What he said :D

[Xeptu]

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?

Human Resources Departments (HR), Political Correctness. since i retired from the airlines and started running my own Company, I don't have any of those problems. It's quite liberating actually.

[blubak]

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?
Spot on,nobody bothers reading the leaflet inside every prescription box you get from the chemist which highlights the risks of taking that medication.
If you are really concerned,talk to your gp & ignore the peanuts in our society who are experts on everything with not a qualification to back up any of the garbage they like to spread.

[SOPS]

I had my first AZ a month ago. I’m still upright. Can’t wait until I get the second. I spent a lot of time in Africa during my flying career. I could have ended up with Malaria… I never did. I am happy to take the risk with AZ….

[Xeptu]

I had my first AZ a month ago. I’m still upright. Can’t wait until I get the second. I spent a lot of time in Africa during my flying career. I could have ended up with Malaria… I never did. I am happy to take the risk with AZ….

Hey, me too, Ghana, did we meet.

[Muttley Crew]

Yes i have been thinking that its not that far away.
I read an article this morning where Dan Andrews said he wants 2022 to be a year without lockdowns & this will happen by having anyone who wants to be vaccinated being able to do so & then basically the people who dont want it will find there will be many places/events they will be unable to attend.
So,like you say 'good luck after you have had your chance'

Dan Andrews can say whatever he likes because he doesn't have to live up to it as long as he keeps extending the State of Emergency.

It's interesting to see how easily Australians will give away and reason away their freedoms and encourage repression for others. As a society we used to be resilient and wary of what we're told to do; now we're more and more like a bunch of lemmings, all because of something that kills a few more than the flu has every year. It'll be fascinating to see in a year or two or five if this experimental substance they injected into the population was actually toxic; but then when has it all ever gone wrong before for our health?

[MickG0105]

I had my first AZ a month ago. I’m still upright.
You, me and 3,050,201 of the 3,050,209 (99.9998%) other Australians who have had at least one shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

[Lead Balloon]

Wow! Such an impressive percentage!

It must have been so difficult for Scotty to use the word "sorry" in a sentence. But you guys did a great job of doing it in a context in which that could be spun as an apology for his abject failures.

Keep up the 'good' work.

[SOPS]

Dan Andrews can say whatever he likes because he doesn't have to live up to it as long as he keeps extending the State of Emergency.

It's interesting to see how easily Australians will give away and reason away their freedoms and encourage repression for others. As a society we used to be resilient and wary of what we're told to do; now we're more and more like a bunch of lemmings, all because of something that kills a few more than the flu has every year. It'll be fascinating to see in a year or two or five if this experimental substance they injected into the population was actually toxic; but then when has it all ever gone wrong before for our health?
I give up!!!!

[MickG0105]

I give up!!!!
Yep, we're just being trolled here.

[Ladloy]

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?
it doesn't make sense for a young person to take it, knowing that pfizer is only around the corner AND receiving the second jab at around the same time as an AZ jab if you were to have one today.

[Max Tow]

we're more and more like a bunch of lemmings, all because of something that kills a few more than the flu has every year.

I'll take the bait. Utter rubbish.
Johns Hopkins report May 2021 "Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu."

It seems that in Australia we headline (and apparently in some quarters, panic over) the tiny mortality rate of AZ (1 in a million) but have no idea (or fear) of the true unmitigated (no-lockdown, no social distancing,'life as it was') rate of covid infection & mortality being suffered by our less fortunate overseas neighbours, because we've the benefit of geography and have taken sensible if painful precautions pending vaccination. That's always been a temporary state of affairs and it's encouraging that there seems to be a consensus on this thread among vaxxers and non-vaxxers alike that we should lift the restrictions once the choice has been made available to all. I just hope that our leaders set this as a supply achievement deadline (as Dan Andrews seems to suggest) and not as an ever-delayed vaccinated take-up level (as Gladys seems to prefer).
Ironically, when independence day comes, the non-vaxxers will be to a large degree protected (and no doubt thereby seek justification) by being surrounded by a majority sensible enough to have taken the jab, but there could also be a useful demonstration of the pros & cons if the health authorities have the sense to split the ongoing hospitalisation & mortality figures between the two groups.

[minigundiplomat]

Johns Hopkins report May 2021 "Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu."

looks like game over. You’d better stay home
for the rest of your life.

[WingNut60]

Johns Hopkins report May 2021 "Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu."

looks like game over. You’d better stay home
for the rest of your life.
No. Not so.
We'll try this one more time.

Vaccination substantially reduces the risks of a) infection b) serious illness and c) death.
Widespread vaccination is expected to substantially reduces the incidence of transmission.
When those pre-requisites have been achieved, then and only then, can you expect that the populace will be likely to accept relatively low levels of infection, illness and death.

There is not a country that has yet managed to achieve the above combination.
Australia is not within the proverbial coo-ee of doing so.

[Max Tow]

WingNut60: Agree with most of that in an ideal world, but the hard choice for the politicians in a free society will be what to do when the take-up rate sticks at 60-70%.

From Axios News this week:
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sounded the alarm over what she called a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" as COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are again on the rise across the U.S. "There is a clear message that is coming through," Walensky said. "This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated. We are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk."

I guess there comes a point (hopefully soon) where if we have a demonstrably effective and available vaccine, then we have been given the opportunity to make our choice and must live with the consequences. We accept that with smokers, after all, despite c20k deaths a year here in Australia. I take great comfort from that stunning graph in post #6238 and hope the UK's leap of faith pays off....

[PoppaJo]

If any good can come out of today, it’s this. Gladys may change her strategy of suppression and surrender on it.
I think she now recognises that this is impossible. Today might be the day that all health departments start to
advise us we now have to live with it.
She is on her own for the next 6 months.

McGowan and others have specially said they are not playing that game. The dialogue from all the Labor premiers is much the same. Essentially cut Sydney off from the rest of the nation until Christmas.

[SOPS]

If anyone thinks there is any appetite in WA to open up.. they are on drugs. There is no way McGowan would let that happen. Most of us in WA are happy to do short lock downs when required .. comply with mask wearing and generally follow the rules. The rest of the time.. as long as we stay in the State, we can live almost normally ( for the moment).

[DHC8 Driver]

Oh FFS - most of the UK had the AZ shot - can we stop making mountains out of mole-hills? We really have become scared of risk haven’t we? How did we get so scared of everything?

My sentiments exactly. 👍👍

[SOPS]

Thread drift I know. I’m watching the opening of the World’s most expensive farce ( only because my darling wife wants to)..

I have seen athletes with no masks, ones with the mask below the nose, people sharing holding the flag .

We have a super spread event all in the name of $$$$$

[Ladloy]

She is on her own for the next 6 months.

McGowan and others have specially said they are not playing that game. The dialogue from all the Labor premiers is much the same. Essentially cut Sydney off from the rest of the nation until Christmas.
was it not the same for vic last year?

[ruprecht]

Thread drift I know. I’m watching the opening of the World’s most expensive farce ( only because my darling wife wants to)..

I have seen athletes with no masks, ones with the mask below the nose, people sharing holding the flag .

We have a super spread event all in the name of $$$$$

Bah, humbug to you too…:rolleyes:

[SOPS]

Bah, humbug to you too…:rolleyes:
Let’s wait and see.

[Turnleft080]

was it not the same for vic last year?
Melbourne lockdown was 4 months with a ring of steal, a 8pm-6am curfew, 1 hour exercise, 5 km radius.
Cases peaked at 724. Battling Wuhan strain. How’s that for stats Bruce.

[A320 Flyer]

If anyone thinks there is any appetite in WA to open up.. they are on drugs. There is no way McGowan would let that happen. Most of us in WA are happy to do short lock downs when required .. comply with mask wearing and generally follow the rules. The rest of the time.. as long as we stay in the State, we can live almost normally ( for the moment).

if would be great if they just dug a trench and just pushed WA out into the ocean

[SOPS]

if would be great if they just dug a trench and just pushed WA out into the ocean

At the moment, I would suggest it would be great if they built a big wall around NSW and did not let anyone in or out. ( And I’m originally from NSW and have family there.)

[601]

I'd be happy if pfizer was readily available. Young people have sacrificed enough in this pandemic to be risking blood clots because the PM ****** up.

If people had half a brain they would know by now that the TGA has approved the AZ for people over 18.
The ATAGI, who don't approve anything, have stated that the Pfizier in the preferred vaccine for people under 60.
Note the difference in the words "preferred" and "approved"
So how do you reconcile the above with your statement regarding the PM who reiterated what is "approved"

[Fuel-Off]

ATAGI is the advisory group, the TGA is the regulator. Astrazeneca is legally able to be administered to anyone over the age of 18. Pfizer has just been approved for those over the age of 12. A false equivalency has emerged between what is advised and what is regulated. Technically doctors can inoculate those above the minimum age, but of course there's a priority for those who would most likely succumb to the disease should they get infected in among a very limited amount of vaccine.

The issue lies with the messaging and the very low risk of blood clots. The media rhetoric when the clotting issues first came into light was effectively that of you take it, death is a certainty. That reckless scaremongering combined with Government's non-existent campaign to take the jab has helped create the catastrophic situation the country is in at the moment.

At least the media's message is now changing to one which emphasises to take any vaccine offered, but make sure you take the due diligence with your health care provider before you get the jab. But some fear the damage is already done and we just have to sit tight until Pfizer supplies increase towards the end of what is increasingly looking like a long winter.

Message from the Government? Crickets.

Fuel-Off :ok:

[cessnapete]

Here in the UK the AZ data shows that the vaccine is of a magnitudes safer than the Contraceptive Pill in causing blood clots.
Seeing all the negativity in Oz over AZ, has the Pill been banned yet?

[Ladloy]

Melbourne lockdown was 4 months with a ring of steal, a 8pm-6am curfew, 1 hour exercise, 5 km radius.
Cases peaked at 724. Battling Wuhan strain. How’s that for stats Bruce.
so the assumption is that this more infectious variant will be out of control with the current lockdown?

[mattyj]

Here in the UK the AZ data shows that the vaccine is of a magnitudes safer than the Contraceptive Pill in causing blood clots.
Seeing all the negativity in Oz over AZ, has the Pill been banned yet?


my wife refused to use it after she read the data..I had to get a vasectomy

needless to say..she ain’t going near this vaccine

[Ladloy]

You, me and 3,050,201 of the 3,050,209 (99.9998%) other Australians who have had at least one shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
blood clot risk below 50 years increases considerably. My age group is 1 in 30000 and I'm sure CASA would have a field day. I don't live in Sydney so there's no rush for me. By all means those in Sydney should go out and get AZ, because of Gladys and Scotty from Marketing put politics before the experts.

[Gnadenburg]

None of the reluctant vaxers have answered my question as to whether they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due COVID.

So can I ask the following?

- Would you expect and take a government handout as an aviation worker whilst preaching a reluctant vaccination stance?

- Will you accept the opening of borders despite you and I take it your family, not being vaccinated?

[blubak]

At the moment, I would suggest it would be great if they built a big wall around NSW and did not let anyone in or out. ( And I’m originally from NSW and have family there.)
Inteteresting you say such a thing-i have just seen how vic has designated nsw a higher risk zone now & increased fines etc for entering victoria,have a look at twitter & the comments regarding peoples rights & all the rest that goes with it.
It just shows there are people out there that think all of this is a scam & should be ignored.

[blubak]

Melbourne lockdown was 4 months with a ring of steal, a 8pm-6am curfew, 1 hour exercise, 5 km radius.
Cases peaked at 724. Battling Wuhan strain. How’s that for stats Bruce.
And majority adhered to all of it,thats the big difference.

[burner account]

Posting with a throwaway account to avoid doxxing me or my family.

Close family works in pathology. The number of weird blood issues they are seeing post-AZ is rising. Like really weird - zero platelets, ruptured spleens, stuff like that. All statistically out of the ordinary. Not causing deaths so not making the news, but just odd. It isn’t just about the deaths.

Number of issues post Pfizer? Zero.

My family is almost fully vaxxed, but people are reluctant on AZ for a reason. It’s not because that are stupid or didn’t do maths at school

[MickG0105]

my wife refused to use it after she read the data..I had to get a vasectomy

Being such a diligent manager of risk you doubtlessly acquainted yourself with the 2006-07 Northwestern University study (https://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2007/02/vasectomy.html) that tentatively indicated a link between vasectomy and a form of dementia known as Primary Progressive Aphasia, a condition in which people have trouble recalling and understanding words.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.

[ruprecht]

McGowan pulling an: “All States Matter” :rolleyes:

[WingNut60]

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.
Please refer Post #6312

[Lead Balloon]

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.The biggest embarrassment is Scotty from Marketing.

He controls the import and distribution of vaccines (yeah Mick: I know about local production too).

A State Premier declaring a 'national' emergency. If only we had a national government to make those kinds of decisions and implement an appropriate national response.

Scotty acts on the advice of the medical experts, until it becomes politically damaging.

Scotty uses a sentence with "sorry" in it about what "we" regret, so that it can be spun into an apology.

At least he's not blabbing as much as he used to. Scared of becoming white noise...

[Green.Dot]

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian.

Spot on Captain. If ever WA get invaded by the PLA (and if it does happen, that is where they will go), they can cry “national emergency” all they want.

Imagine the enthusiasm from the Government to send some RAAF F-35s over from the east coast.

Shame on you McGowan.

[MickG0105]

blood clot risk below 50 years increases considerably. My age group is 1 in 30000 and I'm sure CASA would have a field day. I don't live in Sydney so there's no rush for me. By all means those in Sydney should go out and get AZ, ...
The Winton Centre at the University of Cambridge produced a handy infographic for doing a comparative risk assessment for the AstraZeneca vaccine. It shows the comparative risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing a serious illness versus the risk of developing a serious thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) reaction from the AstraZeneca vaccine. As expected the risks correlate inversely by age group.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1250/screenshot_2021_07_24_09_01_34_3152c8be9da40f8faedee92beffbf 1d4e89f5d43.png
Source: Communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge


The COVID-19 risk on this graphic is based on a case prevalence of 2 active cases per 10,000 population. Nationally, we are running at about 0.67 cases per 10,000 or one third that rate; NSW is running at about that rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 population; Greater Sydney is presently around one third higher than the base rate at 3 cases per 10,000. It is a relatively simple case of adjusting the potential benefit of getting the vaccine by multiplying the base benefit illustrated by one half of your local case rate.

[Gnadenburg]

Greend Dot -

If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them.

ST

Either our security is really deteriorating or we are talking up our fears of the Chinese Communist Party in national debate.

Whichever, COVID has delivered a template for Australia's defeat. The CCP will not only pry these divisions in a grey zone coercion but possibly in direct military confrontation, rewarding compliant state governments, who bark at national response to security threats, with less CCP intimidation and threats of attacks.

West Australian parochialism is a good example of where the CCP could apply such a template. Not at where we would deploy military resources but where the CCP could look to divide the nation. WA would be rewarded post-confrontation ( resource rich and oligarch like politics ) and the conduct of conflict swayed to reward cowering states. East Coast states could bear the brunt of naval embargoes and not only direct attacks on military bases with long range conventional weaponry, but also civilian population centres to drive home the compliance message to a divided nation.

[Lead Balloon]

Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.

[MickG0105]

Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.
Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".

It may not be perfect but it is the best comparative risk representation that I have seen for AstraZeneca. For the average punter it is certainly better than flailing around amidst a flurry of percentages and the like.

One of the most important things, that unfortunately you don't pick up from just the one graphic, is the the comparative risk is not static, it depends on the prevalence of coronavirus in the community. As you can see on this graphic for "medium" exposure risk - that is, 6 active cases per 10,000 - the potential benefits increase because the possibility of contracting coronavirus increases. The risk of an adverse reaction causing serious illness is fixed however.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1250/screenshot_2021_07_24_11_11_25_e722789b7f3fae417e18aa8c669ff 9ed5a0e0d3e.png

[ozaub]

Marketing AstraZeneca vaccination to under-60s will kill about a dozen of them; based on UK Government statistics at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting. That’s about the same risk as flying in the 1960s. Scotty just needs a glib slogan to convince them it’s worthwhile for the economy and for the rest of us.

[Chris2303]

163 new cases in NSW

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-163-new-cases-military-may-enforce-sydney-lockdown/OQOXU4QYBMNC6KNUTMCGLZDEGM/

[PoppaJo]

Hazzard now wants Dan’s Pfizer.

I will just leave this here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrBlackVelvet/status/1413624954537476096

[Lead Balloon]

Genuine thanks, Mick. This answered my question and the supplementary question in one go: Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".It seems to me that the "medium exposure risk" is like expressing the probabilities of being attacked by a shark. But for an individual who doesn't go into the water, the probabilities are zero.

If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.

(Of course, western Sydney isn't a 10,000 square km farm with one family living in the homestead, stocked up with food and fuel. The main problem in these Sydney suburbs is cultural. Many of the residents do not trust or do not care what 'the authorities' say.)

[WingNut60]

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.
I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.

[rattman]

I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.

VIC, SA and WA have all said it. QLD wan not allowed to participate in the national cabinet, but going to guess the official answer would have been no. Just a reminder gladys said no about sending vaccines to VIC earlier this year.

[MrScooter]

Thanks for the graphs, MickG0105.

The potential benefits are every 16 weeks, so multiply that by 3.25 per year?

The question becomes what will the rate in the community be once we stop locking down (assuming that day will come, and acknowledging that Sydney is currently at the lower rate with restrictions).

[Gnadenburg]

If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.

Evidently, you will get COVID eventually. And many more Australians will die from it.

What worries me is people like yourself who may demand the continued shutting of borders and other damaging economic actions.

So can you sing from the rooftops, I'm not going to get vaccinated, but please open up the borders for others' sakes?

[Lead Balloon]

You evidently haven't been able to review what I've said previously in this thread, Gnadenberg, or I haven't expressed myself clearly enough.

I don't know whether I support the lockdowns and border closures, because I don't know how much they cost. What I do know is that they cost an enormous amount, and Australia is merely delaying the inevitable. I think the NSW Treasurer committed a political heresy the other day, by effectively acknowledging the fact that the ever-increasing enormous costs may not be worth the lives saved. (It is a fact that we weigh up costs against lives every day. That's why, for example, there continue to be suicide deaths in prisons. We as a society have decided we're not going spend any more money to make all prisons suicide proof.)

I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.

[Torukmacto]

I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.

Seems to be a common idea amongst Australians now , I’ll get vaccinated when I feel my health is sufficiently threatened in my opinion ?
We are at war with delta , the economy is taking hit after hit , the country is closed for business and states at each other’s throats . The only answer we have at the moment long term is to get the bulk of Australia vaccinated and open it up .

Australia is defiantly the lucky country but not sure if it’s better to be lucky or smart at the moment .

No more excuses .

Letting wife or girlfriend ( or both ) take the birth control pill monthly that has higher chance of getting a blood clot than the A-Z vaccination and saying I’m not getting vaccinated as risks are too high while country is on its knees ?

[Lead Balloon]

Gosh, another one arising from my evident inability to make my point clearly enough.

So I'm sitting here in my homestead in the middle of my 10,000 square km property. Fridge and freezers full of good food, great beer and even better wine. Girlfriend by my side. Reliable and fast NBN. Dam full of water. Shed full of fuel for my generator, 4WD and aircraft.

Walk me through why it's sensible for me to travel into town where the risk of me contracting C-19 changes from zero to not-zero, so as to take a risk - irrespective of its probabilities - of death through blood clots.

Who exactly am I helping by taking the risk of the vaccination now? Who exactly, Torukmacto?

[MrScooter]

You argue from a very unique position, Lead Balloon. For the rest of us it looks like inevitably it will be in everybody's personal interest (as well as the community interest) to get vaccinated, with the only debatable category being the very young. We can't start opening up until most of us are vaccinated and we can't all decide the personal risk is such that we should get vaccinated on the same day. What if everyone turned up at the boarding gate at -5? No-one is late?

[Bend alot]

None of the reluctant vaxers have answered my question as to whether they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due COVID.

So can I ask the following?

- Would you expect and take a government handout as an aviation worker whilst preaching a reluctant vaccination stance?

- Will you accept the opening of borders despite you and I take it your family, not being vaccinated?

I am not an anti vaxer.

I currently have not had a COVID vax nor do I currently plan to (Never had a flu jab either).

My simple understanding of COVID 19 is there are a group of people that are high risk of getting very sick or dying if they catch it - For this I say they need our help with border closures (state and national) until the have the chance to be vaccinated.
Same measures also until all front line workers have the option to get vaccinated.

After this point we can open fully internally (nationally)and give the option to all secondary contact workers that want it to get it, followed by general public getting it if they want it. 3 months after this fully open every border.

IF the vaccines prevented people from catching COVID and being able to transmit it to others - my opinion would be different. If we of the non "High Risk" status wish to risk getting sicker or even die from catching it - bad luck, we had the option. But we have given the chance for every one to get vaccinated if they wish, high rick or not.


If the government closes my work - as a tax payer, I expect compensation for that. Vaccine does not prevent COVID or its spread.

Members of my family (non high risk) have been vaccinated, they have their reasons.

[Lead Balloon]

No I'm not in a unique position in Australia, MrScooter. (And there's no such thing as "very" unique.) There are many, many Australians in the outback who are used to being in quite comfortable isolation for protracted periods.

If this is going to be done in rational way - that is, done so as to most effectively mitigate the risk as quickly as practicable - then ALL essential workers and everyone living in aged care have to be vaccinated first. And we haven't been able to manage that even that yet, over a year in. That's not my fault and criticising me won't change that. I won't start on quarantine facilities...

Australia needs 'leadership', not politicians who hide behind advice when it suits then undermine the advisers when it doesn't suit.

All along, only one out of the two essential questions the answers to which determine the rational response to C-19 have been asked and answered - at least publicly. The first question is to medical experts who have been asked how to keep C-19 under control. And they've provided, generally, the correct answers. The second question that dare not speak its name is: How much is acting on the advice going to cost? And I mean real costs.

[SHVC]

People protesting in Sydney now, almost stopping short of a riot by the looks. Can you blame them?!
PM Morro is not helping at all. If anyone watched his train wreck speech yesterday he agreed with Dr Murphy’s comments that we may need lockdowns even with higher vaccination rates. People are confused told to get jabbed then told not to get AZ wait for Pfizer now told get AZ again it’s a total mess and some don’t believe covid is even real. There is no end game planned other than arbitrary 80% vaxed population Gladys wants then “they will look at it” that’s not good enough and ppl have a right be be pissed in my opinion. Gov at all levels are sitting on their hands still passing the baton of blame no personal accountability they have not had a cut in income lost their job or had to sell their house and the ppl have had enough

[Lead Balloon]

Relax! The Keystone Cops in charge can still manage to arrange for a visa for a crass, racist Pommie 'celebrity'. One of the Cops - Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews - said:This does happen from time to time; it actually happens reasonably regularly that state governments approach the federal government on the basis that there is an economic benefit to some people coming in over the quarantine caps.So sad - for the economy - that the Keystone Cops bowed to political pressure and punted the 'celebrity' back to Pommieland. Maybe Scotty should have asked Jenny whether it was a 'good idea' for the federal government to grant the visa in the first place.

Comedian, writer and journalist Sami Shah is on to a genius idea:This is an important message to all the Australians trapped overseas who cannot return: try being more cartoonishly racist so that Australian TV producers think you're worth putting on a terrible reality TV show, and the NSW government petitions to have you brought over so Channel Seven can make money from advertisers.

[Clare Prop]

For a 420 visa that "entertainers" have to get, a tick in the box from the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance is required (after paying their fee, of course). It has to be proven that they will create a "net economic benefit".
Meanwhile Ed Sheeran flies in for Michael Gudinski's funeral and locals can't even visit their dying parents here or overseas.
You just have to follow the money..

[Lead Balloon]

But we're all equal...

[MickG0105]

Genuine thanks, Mick.

Thanks for the graphs, MickG0105.
You're welcome.

Now, for the cost conscious, what I think might have been a missing element in the AstraZeneca versus Pfizer vaccine discussion - the relative costs.

Pfizer at $26 a dose is eight times the cost of AstraZeneca at $3.25 a dose. mRNA vaccines are very, very expensive to produce compared to more traditional approaches such as viral vector. That eightfold difference in cost is just the factory-gate production cost. Shipping Pfizer is two to three times more expensive than AstraZeneca due to the fact that it must be shipped frozen as opposed to just refrigerated.

When ATAGI changed the advice on AstraZeneca from for over 50 to for over 60 that cost the best part of $100 million just in swap out costs.

[mattyj]

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/pfizer

just pay up already..Pfizer has loads of bills to take care of!

[compressor stall]

And there’s a lot more work involved in mixing the vials for Pfizer at the clinic. Various stages need to be timed and everything done in an order to get it into the needle.
Astra you pretty much just grab from the fridge and put into arm.

[SHVC]

All this is meaningless now, we are on a trajectory that cant be stopped. Before end of August NSW, like VIC last yr will be locked out of Australia and Victorians traveling freely again which is good.

The difference from NSW now compared to VIC being the people are much much more angry, have had enough and by the looks will not listen to government dribble.

The issue the gov has now is not the virus, its how to get the peoples trust back, get them to listen because they will not stay home now. My opinion someone needs to fall,be it Sco Mo or Gladys one of the two. If the public see some accountability at the top and replace with a new face it might be enough.

[Chronic Snoozer]

The COVID-19 risk on this graphic is based on a case prevalence of 2 active cases per 10,000 population. Nationally, we are running at about 0.67 cases per 10,000 or one third that rate; NSW is running at about that rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 population; Greater Sydney is presently around one third higher than the base rate at 3 cases per 10,000. It is a relatively simple case of adjusting the potential benefit of getting the vaccine by multiplying the base benefit illustrated by one half of your local case rate.

That would be 50% higher would it not?

[Lead Balloon]

You're welcome.

Now, for the cost conscious, what I think might have been a missing element in the AstraZeneca versus Pfizer vaccine discussion - the relative costs.

Pfizer at $26 a dose is eight times the cost of AstraZeneca at $3.25 a dose. mRNA vaccines are very, very expensive to produce compared to more traditional approaches such as viral vector. That eightfold difference in cost is just the factory-gate production cost. Shipping Pfizer is two to three times more expensive than AstraZeneca due to the fact that it must be shipped frozen as opposed to just refrigerated.

When ATAGI changed the advice on AstraZeneca from for over 50 to for over 60 that cost the best part of $100 million just in swap out costs.
And there we have it!

Someone made a decision based on cost. But if only that someone had realised that the real costs of that decision would be vastly more than chump change like the "$100 million" to which you referred.

From January this year, when it still wasn't a race:Clinical trials for both vaccines have shown they’re broadly safe.

In terms of efficacy, the Pfizer vaccine protects 94.5% of people from developing COVID.

The AstraZeneca shot protects 70% of people on average — still pretty good and on par with the protection given by a flu vaccine in a good year.The Pfizer vaccine is better (on current data) than AZ.

Aren't Australians worth the better vaccine?

[Aussie Bob]

I don't think 80% of Aussies will take the vax. I reckon more like 50% As far as I can see, 50% would be perfect for the following reasons:

The vaccine is classed as experimental in the USA and is released here in Aus under an emergency authorisation.
The vaccine was rushed to market in record time and the usual long term testing and animal trials were skipped
The manufacturers and the government plus the doctors and nurses are all indemnified from any liability regarding the administration of this vax
The vaccine itself is not without its risks and the long term effects are unknown

If 50% of Aussies take this stuff we are setting up the perfect and much needed long term trial that is needed. In 2, 5, 10 and more years we can look back and compare the halves.

Perfect clinical testing I reckon :-)

[Green.Dot]

Check it out Aussie Bob… pass it on to your friends too


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/948x1059/07aabe81_6ceb_4a1e_8dbb_38832f7f157f_7d8af2fd012c04bed87f352 51907021195e9efc0.jpeg

[Xeptu]

I don't think 80% of Aussies will take the vax. I reckon more like 50% As far as I can see, 50% would be perfect for the following reasons:

The vaccine is classed as experimental in the USA and is released here in Aus under an emergency authorisation.
The vaccine was rushed to market in record time and the usual long term testing and animal trials were skipped
The manufacturers and the government plus the doctors and nurses are all indemnified from any liability regarding the administration of this vax
The vaccine itself is not without its risks and the long term effects are unknown

If 50% of Aussies take this stuff we are setting up the perfect and much needed long term trial that is needed. In 2, 5, 10 and more years we can look back and compare the halves.

Perfect clinical testing I reckon :-)

Assuming of course you can find anyone in 10 years that were neither vaccinated or Infected.

[Aussie Bob]

You miss the point totally Xeptu, in 10 years time there will be the vaxed, the unvaxed, those that have been infected and survived (around 99.9% of cases survive) and those that have passed away, both vaxed and unvaxed as well as those who have never had been infected or never had any symptoms.

A perfect trial will have been completed. If you think this virus is going to wipe everyone out I think you have been misled.

[Aussie Bob]

Check it out Aussie Bob… pass it on to your friends too

I did check it out, very interesting. Perhaps you should check this out: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2021/07/23/the-prevalence-of-evil/

Personally I don't believe or disbelieve either stats, I simply don't know. All I do know is that I don't feel particularly threatened by "the virus". I don't know why that is either, its just the way it is.

[Xeptu]

You miss the point totally Xeptu, in 10 years time there will be the vaxed, the unvaxed, those that have been infected and survived (around 99.9% of cases survive) and those that have passed away, both vaxed and unvaxed as well as those who have never had been infected or never had any symptoms.

A perfect trial will have been completed. If you think this virus is going to wipe everyone out I think you have been misled.

My point was about "perfect clinical testing" It's not about dying and never has been. you need comparisons for vaccinated never infected, unvaccinated never infected, vaccinated infected.
In ten years we probably wont find a never infected person. Except perhaps lead balloon on his 11,000sq property :)

[dr dre]

Another day, another bunch of lies to debunk spread by the anti-vaxxers that have infected this site.


The vaccine is classed as experimental in the USA and is released here in Aus under an emergency authorisation.


Rubbish (https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/are-the-covid-vaccines-experimental) and rubbish (https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-it-true/is-it-true-were-covid-19-vaccines-rushed-through-approvals-or-given-emergency-use-authorisations-in-australia)

The vaccine was rushed to market in record time and the usual long term testing and animal trials were skipped


Nonsense (https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines-rushed) and bulldust (https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9792931264)

The manufacturers and the government plus the doctors and nurses are all indemnified from any liability regarding the administration of this vax


Not unusual (https://globalnews.ca/news/7521148/coronavirus-vaccine-safety-liability-government-anand-pfizer/)

The vaccine itself is not without its risks and the long term effects are unknown


Try again (https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19-vaccine-wont-have-long-term-side-effects)

Perfect clinical testing I reckon :-)

Already done (https://www.ncirs.org.au/phases-clinical-trials)

[43Inches]

those that have been infected and survived (around 99.9% of cases survive)

The survival rate of infected individuals, that is those that don't die, is between 99% and 95% of those that catch Covid. The survival rate with no long term associated conditions is about 75%-85%. The survival rate among 60+ is much lower graduating towards 60% and below 40 year old or so better than 99%, with current strains that is. The US is running at just under 2% death rate from Covid pre vaccination, the UK running at about 2.5%. Australia is around 2.8%, so to be specific your chance from dieing in Australia, should you catch Covid is currently sitting at 2.8%, or 97.2% survival rate. Which is roughly the same chance of dieing if you try to intentionally kill yourself using prescribed medication, so intentionally catching Covid gives you similar rates of death to intentional suicide attempts.

The vaccine is classed as experimental in the USA and is released here in Aus under an emergency authorisation.

If you are referring to Astro Zeneca, only two versions manufactured in Asia are classified as such. Don't rely on simple google searches for this stuff, it is actually complicated and different manufacturers and location of manufacture of the same named vaccine have different approvals for use.

The manufacturers and the government plus the doctors and nurses are all indemnified from any liability regarding the administration of this vax

All Covid vaccines have been given general exemptions to liability.

In ten years we probably wont find a never infected person. Except perhaps lead balloon on his 11,000sq property https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

The down side to this tactic is that when you are finally exposed to the virus it could be worse, as you havn't built up progressive immunity to its effects. Similar to the European nations introducing viruses to native populations around the world. The longer you sit out these things the worse it could be for you.

[dr dre]

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2021/07/23/the-prevalence-of-evil/


So now we have Holocaust Deniers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Craig_Roberts) posted here as a source?

[Xeptu]

I did check it out, very interesting. Perhaps you should check this out: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2021/07/23/the-prevalence-of-evil/

Personally I don't believe or disbelieve either stats, I simply don't know. All I do know is that I don't feel particularly threatened by "the virus". I don't know why that is either, its just the way it is.

Most likely because you havn't been touched by the virus yet, Most don't know anyone who has been infected let alone became seriously ill. That leaves us with a sense of virus, what virus.

When Vic was in it's hour of need 4 of our girls volunteered to help, Because procedure and PPE was seriously flawed, something they realised the moment they went on duty, all 4 came home infected, 12 months on, none of them can say they are restored to perfect precovid health, Breathlessness for no apparent reason, bruising that comes and goes in the legs, arms and hands, for apparently no reason. loss of sensation, numbness.
Will they volunteer again, hell no, if a more severe strain emerges that is likely to overwhelm the health system, we are bugging out. These girls are professionals not scared easily, so that's a big deal coming from them.

[43Inches]

When Vic was in it's hour of need 4 of our girls volunteered to help, Because procedure and PPE was seriously flawed, something they realised the moment they went on duty, all 4 came home infected, 12 months on, none of them can say they are restored to perfect precovid health, Breathlessness for no apparent reason, bruising that comes and goes in the legs, arms and hands, for apparently no reason. loss of sensation, numbness.

As I said earlier some hospital staff in Victoria are seriously afraid of this virus. They all relate the same story of friends that are bedridden months after 'recovery'. Also you here of the struggle some go through, the BA captain that died from Covid not long ago was seriously ill for 4 months before passing, it is not a nice or easy way to die.

One thing to note; I have mates in the US and UK, not once have I heard the same debate from there as it is here. They all went and got whatever vaccine was being offered and showed the vaccine slip like a badge of honor afterwards. None of them make light of the death rate or that its just "like the flu". As said above I think Australians again being in the lucky country have no real idea what its like if it gets loose, out of sight, make stuff up.

[SOPS]

I just got home from visiting my mother. On the way back home, I was delayed by a “convoy” of anti vax protest cars blocking a 3 lane, 70 Kph highway by driving at 20 kph in all lanes. Their cars were covered in anti vax slogans.. including my favourite ..5G kills.

With these morons around, we have no hope.

[MickG0105]

That would be 50% higher would it not?
Yes, bad maths on my part.

[Aussie Bob]

DOCTOR DRE:

You may be interested to know that I have read most of your posts and clicked through most of your links. I reiterate, I don't know. Clearly you do. You give the impression you know everything about this Covid thing. I am a simple pilot on a pilots forum and I now bow out of this discussion. I am not interested in a "battle of the links" either and will post no more on this thread .But before I leave, I will correct my 99.9% comment:

If you are fit and well with no underlying medical conditions I tend to believe you have a 99.9% chance of survival of this thing. (Perhaps I do believe something :-)

Also Doc: Nowhere, have I stated I am an anti vaxer, nowhere. This is just another "I know" viewpoint of yours and it is simply not true. Enjoy your superiority.

[Chronic Snoozer]

I just got home from visiting my mother. On the way back home, I was delayed by a “convoy” of anti vax protest cars blocking a 3 lane, 70 Kph highway by driving at 20 kph in all lanes. Their cars were covered in anti vax slogans.. including my favourite ..5G kills.

With these morons around, we have no hope.

Volunteers for Aussie Bob's clinical trials?

[dr dre]

If you are fit and well with no underlying medical conditions I tend to believe you have a 99.9% chance of survival of this thing. (Perhaps I do believe something :-)


The good thing about Science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it

Neil deGrasse Tyson

[Green.Dot]

With these morons around, we have no hope.

Oh yes, a classy bunch indeed- these Aussie heroes were also in Brissy today. When we open up and they want a hospital bed let’s tell them to get pf^cked.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/657x440/5d6f48fe_194e_44d7_8e7a_22a5a9db7de6_64a7c4a1b5f48ede6c76f4d 8e398538bda51c631.jpeg

[MickG0105]

And there we have it!

Someone made a decision based on cost.
No, they likely did not. When the Australian government placed its order for AstraZeneca nobody knew what the delivered cost of any of the vaccines was going to be.

Moreover - and this seems to be lost on many - coming into the pandemic, despite 25 years of trying no pharmaceutical company had ever produced an mRNA vaccine. None, nobody, zilch, zero. mRNA vaccines had been spruiked as a concept for years - a good mate of mine did his PhD thesis on them back in the mid-1990s - but the concept had never been made real. Viral vector vaccines, on the hand, were a proven commodity. So, in what at the time looked like a prudent, low-medium risk decision the Australian government initially committed to a viral vector vaccine - AstraZeneca - and a molecular clamp technology vaccine - the University of Queensland v451- that they knew could both be manufactured here.

Of course, in the this pile-on mentality to just sh^tcan the government at every turn, what's also lost is that the initial decisions taken by the United States and the EU on vaccine acquisition were heavily biased towards which vaccine? AstraZeneca! Why? Probably the same reason - lower delivery risk. The Yanks ordered 300 million doses of AstraZeneca essentially right out of the blocks. Their commitment to Pfizer at that stage was around one third of that, 100 million doses.

But if only that someone had realised that the real costs of that decision would be vastly more than chump change like the "$100 million" to which you referred.
Yes, and 'if only' the fox hadn't stopped to scratch itself it would have caught the rabbit. If only.

From January this year, when it still wasn't a race:Quote:Clinical trials for both vaccines have shown they’re broadly safe. In terms of efficacy, the Pfizer vaccine protects 94.5% of people from developing COVID. The AstraZeneca shot protects 70% of people on average — still pretty good and on par with the protection given by a flu vaccine in a good year. From January this year, when it still wasn't a race:The Pfizer vaccine is better (on current data) than AZ.Wrong measure of efficacy! Stage III trial vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is the wrong measure for comparing vaccines largely because the prevailing conditions in which the trials are conducted vary. The vaccine efficacies that count from a public health perspective are efficacy against hospitalisation, efficacy against ICU admissions and efficacy against deaths. On those measures, AstraZeneca and Pfizer were, and still are, line ball.


Aren't Australians worth the better vaccine?
At the time, both AstraZeneca and Pfizer were line ball on key efficacy measures. The latter was by then known to be eight times the cost of the former. Additionally, at that time Pfizer was failing to hit its production and delivery targets such that the EU was embargoing AstraZeneca to make up the shortfalls. You tell me which one you'd be opting for at that time.

[AerialPerspective]

No, they likely did not. When the Australian government placed its order for AstraZeneca nobody knew what the delivered cost of any of the vaccines was going to be.

Moreover - and this seems to be lost on many - coming into the pandemic, despite 25 years of trying no pharmaceutical company had ever produced an mRNA vaccine. None, nobody, zilch, zero. mRNA vaccine had been spruiked as a concept for years - a good mate of mine did his PhD thesis on them back in the mid-1990s - but the concept had never been made real. Viral vector vaccines, on the hand, were a proven commodity. So, in what at the time looked like a prudent, low-medium risk decision the Australian government initially committed to a viral vector vaccine - AstraZeneca - and a molecular clamp technology vaccine - the University of Queensland v451- that they knew could both be manufactured here.

Of course, in the this pile-on mentality to just sh^tcan the government at every turn, what's also lost is that the initial decisions taken by the United States and the EU on vaccine acquisition were heavily biased towards which vaccine? AstraZeneca! Why? Probably the same reason - lower delivery risk. The Yanks ordered 300 million doses of AstraZeneca essentially right out of the blocks. Their commitment to Pfizer at that stage was around one third of that, 100 million doses.


Yes, and 'if only' the fox hadn't stopped to scratch itself it would have caught the rabbit. If only.

Wrong measure of efficacy! Stage III trial vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is the wrong measure for comparing vaccines largely because the prevailing conditions in which the trials are conducted vary. The vaccine efficacies that count from a public health perspective are efficacy against hospitalisation, efficacy against ICU admissions and efficacy against deaths. On those measures, AstraZeneca and Pfizer were, and still are, line ball.


At the time, both AstraZeneca and Pfizer were line ball on key efficacy measures. The latter was by then known to be eight times the cost of the former. Additionally, at that time Pfizer was failing to hit its production and delivery targets such that the EU was embargoing AstraZeneca to make up the shortfalls. You tell me which one you'd be opting for at that time.

Curious that you refer to speaking against the Federal Government's efforts to be a "pile on" yet you write dismissive commentary about the Victorian Government "of sign me up to CCP belt and road fame".

Seems to me that your comments just smack 'slightly' of apologetics for what has effectively been on several criteria one of the worst governments we've had in Canberra - Robodebt, millions spent locking up 2 adults and 2 children, couldn't run a census competently when every other government has managed it ok for the preceding 114 years, my favourite was in the Abbott era he set up a committee to see how the Commonwealth could save money and it was abandoned after spending $M's more than budgeted, NBN a complete waste of money, spent more on copper to replace copper when fibre was a fraction of the cost, you couldn't write this stuff and have it accepted as not exaggerated for an episode of Yes Prime Minister.... why should the vaccine roll out be any different... and that's before we get into the absolute stacking of the AAT and mean legislation to attack charities that don't say nice things about the government as well as millions spent to try and discredit political oponent and sports and carpark rorts....

[MickG0105]

Curious that you refer to speaking against the Federal Government's efforts to be a "pile on" yet you write dismissive commentary about the Victorian Government "of sign me up to CCP belt and road fame".

Ah yes, because in dealing with the question of whether FIRB approval for a Chinese investor to acquire Virgin from Bain is likely, I wrote, Unless Chairman Dan, of sign me up for CCP Belt and Road Initiative fame, makes it to the Federal Treasury benches the likelihood of that happening is essentially zero. It simply is not going to happen under a Coalition government given the current and foreseeable relationship with China.

Guilty as charged!


Seems to me that your comments just smack 'slightly' of apologetics for what has effectively been on several criteria one of the worst governments we've had in Canberra - Robodebt, millions spent locking up 2 adults and 2 children, couldn't run a census competently when every other government has managed it ok for the preceding 114 years, my favourite was in the Abbott era he set up a committee to see how the Commonwealth could save money and it was abandoned after spending $M's more than budgeted, NBN a complete waste of money, spent more on copper to replace copper when fibre was a fraction of the cost, you couldn't write this stuff and have it accepted as not exaggerated for an episode of Yes Prime Minister.... why should the vaccine roll out be any different... and that's before we get into the absolute stacking of the AAT and mean legislation to attack charities that don't say nice things about the government as well as millions spent to try and discredit political oponent and sports and carpark rorts....
And seems to me that you not so 'slightly' dislike the current government. You do you, maybe start a thread on that theme. I mainly do numbers, facts and stuff, generally "on thread".

[SOPS]

Just watching the vision of the protests in Sydney. Mostly no masks.. some moron punching a Police Horse.

Just like the Gold Standard Girl told us.. we do it different in NSW.

I can’t wait to see the spread from this.

[mattyj]

Are we not keeping up with the scientific guidance? Outdoor transmission is not a thing anymore. Outdoor masking is only recommended in very crowded situations. (I guess this march qualifies.)

NYTimes special report on exaggerated outdoor transmission (https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?abVariantId=2&campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210511&instance_id=30578&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=61223809&segment_id=57734&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fa1606adc-e1e1-5581-9f2e-aee007a098ea&user_id=62d7d697d0b3a5001308c3122f8093b6)

[aviation_enthus]

Are we not keeping up with the scientific guidance? Outdoor transmission is not a thing anymore. Outdoor masking is only recommended in very crowded situations. (I guess this march qualifies.)

NYTimes special report on exaggerated outdoor transmission (https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?abVariantId=2&campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210511&instance_id=30578&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=61223809&segment_id=57734&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fa1606adc-e1e1-5581-9f2e-aee007a098ea&user_id=62d7d697d0b3a5001308c3122f8093b6)

Hahahahaha!!! Australia keeping up with scientific guidance??

If that was the case they’d be allowing home quarantine for vaccinated travellers from low case countries (not just planning a trial).

Or they would have recognised that placing arrivals in a hotel room with windows that don’t open and recirculating air is a bad idea. Because it’s an airborne virus….

How many cases resulted from the various Victorian protests last year? Pretty sure it was none.

How many cases resulted from the various “infected persons” travelling on domestic flights? Pretty sure it was none.

The vast majority of cases are from spread between family members at home.

Even most of the initial “fleeting contacts” would probably be prevented by enforcing masks indoors ALL THE TIME, not just when there’s an outbreak.

After all, the risk today, is exactly the same as it was last year in Australia, because of the incredibly low vaccination rates. The risk of spreading the virus is still high.

[SHVC]

That last post is the only post that remotely makes sense. Australia has f$&ked it up big time and now we will pay the price for the next 50yrs.

On the upside I was listening to 2GB money show yesterday and they were talking about the share market this guy named 3 shares that he recommended to buy as a sure return on investment. 1 of those three were QF surprisingly. They closed at $4.55 on Friday they could go further down but he seemed to think it’s not if, but when and they will go above $5.00 when all is said and done with this border closure. He estimated you could make up to 25%.

[Ladloy]

That last post is the only post that remotely makes sense. Australia has f$&ked it up big time and now we will pay the price for the next 50yrs.

On the upside I was listening to 2GB money show yesterday and they were talking about the share market this guy named 3 shares that he recommended to buy as a sure return on investment. 1 of those three were QF surprisingly. They closed at $4.55 on Friday they could go further down but he seemed to think it’s not if, but when and they will go above $5.00 when all is said and done with this border closure. He estimated you could make up to 25%.
the assumption for investors is that there's little risk in Qantas as the government will continue to subsidise it

[Max Tow]

Speaking of upsides, in great news for the future demographics of the U.S., a Marist/Fox poll reports that over 80% of Biden voters have been vaccinated, compared with around 50% of Trump voters.

[blubak]

Oh yes, a classy bunch indeed- these Aussie heroes were also in Brissy today. When we open up and they want a hospital bed let’s tell them to get pf^cked.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/657x440/5d6f48fe_194e_44d7_8e7a_22a5a9db7de6_64a7c4a1b5f48ede6c76f4d 8e398538bda51c631.jpeg
Bet you can find photos of these idiots protesting against whatever they can find to protest against.
Who cares if they dont get vaccinated,they have a choice & so do the many business owners who will soon be deciding who is & who isnt welcome to enter their premises.
Maybe the brain will engage when 1 of them or 1 of their family is on a ventilator.

[blubak]

Another day, another bunch of lies to debunk spread by the anti-vaxxers that have infected this site.



Rubbish (https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/are-the-covid-vaccines-experimental) and rubbish (https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-it-true/is-it-true-were-covid-19-vaccines-rushed-through-approvals-or-given-emergency-use-authorisations-in-australia)



Nonsense (https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines-rushed) and bulldust (https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9792931264)



Not unusual (https://globalnews.ca/news/7521148/coronavirus-vaccine-safety-liability-government-anand-pfizer/)



Try again (https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/how-do-we-know-covid-19-vaccine-wont-have-long-term-side-effects)



Already done (https://www.ncirs.org.au/phases-clinical-trials)
Love your answers.
At 1 of the pressers the other day an answer was given to a journalist & it was along the lines of-
If you have any concerns or questions,talk to your gp,ignore the different day different conspiracy theory been given by the talkback radio segments & the front page headlines of the newspaper trying to increase sales.

[Lead Balloon]

I dips me lid, Mick. You are a master of the language.No, they likely did not [take cost of the vaccines into account]. When the Australian government placed its order for AstraZeneca nobody knew what the delivered cost of any of the vaccines was going to be.Oh yes they likely did, because the TGA takes cost effectiveness into account and there's a difference between 'delivered cost' and the 'costs of delivery'. The logistical challenges - and the corresponding disparity in costs - between getting Pfizer into arms compared with getting AZ into arms was known, even if a dose cost the same ex-factory. Wrong measure of efficacy! Say what? I just quoted from the UNSW School of Population Health:Clinical trials for both vaccines have shown they’re broadly safe.

In terms of efficacy, the Pfizer vaccine protects 94.5% of people from developing COVID.

The AstraZeneca shot protects 70% of people on average — still pretty good and on par with the protection given by a flu vaccine in a good year.That article went on to note the logistical disadvantages of Pfizer v AZ and said:[P]eople don’t generally judge whether they’ll receive a vaccine based on its effectiveness alone. We know from talking to the community that many factors influence motivation, especially perceived risk and severity of infection, and confidence in the safety of the vaccine.And therein lies the rub. The magic words "perceived" and "safety" (coincidentally, the way aviation is regulated in Australia).

Since that article was written, there have been the deaths through blood clotting after AZ jabs and the changing 'goal posts' around age groups. (Who knew that viruses discriminate on the basis of neat 10 year age groups?)

But let's assume the UNSW School of Population Health used "the wrong measure of efficacy" and we can produce solid gold, unassailable data now, to show that the risks mitigated by getting, and the rewards of everyone getting, an AZ jab far outweigh the consequences of not. The problem is that the perception of many in the population is that Pfizer is better and safer than AZ. And, as Scotty from Marketing knows better than just about everyone else on the planet, in politics (as with aviation safety), perception is reality.

Best to get sh*t tonnes of Pfizer inbound, ASAP.

[PoppaJo]

Bet you can find photos of these idiots protesting against whatever they can find to protest against.
Who cares if they dont get vaccinated,they have a choice & so do the many business owners who will soon be deciding who is & who isnt welcome to enter their premises.
Maybe the brain will engage when 1 of them or 1 of their family is on a ventilator.
Exactly. It’s not about the subject, it’s all about increasing the amount of followers. Attention seekers. They just seek to create divide in society, regardless of what the topic is.

Just like that vegan activist who has been causing trouble at KFCs across the country. Makes all the socials, news sites, 6pm news. Turns out she is a Instagram model with a few hundred thousand followers. Her following has soared since she started her public protests.

[KRviator]

Moreover - and this seems to be lost on many - coming into the pandemic, despite 25 years of trying no pharmaceutical company had ever produced an mRNA vaccine. None, nobody, zilch, zero. mRNA vaccine had been spruiked as a concept for years - a good mate of mine did his PhD thesis on them back in the mid-1990s - but the concept had never been made real. On the contrary, I don't think it's been lost on as many as you think. As you've said, this pandemic is the proof-of-concept for this style of vaccine delivery. Despite a quarter of a century of trying, they couldn't do it, then suddenly in response to Covid, they can. Granted, that's what happens when you throw almost unlimited funds at a problem and provide indemnities to those developing & delivering these vaccines, but history is littered with "It seemed like a good idea at the time..." type of events.

Insofar as the AZ vaccine, AIUI, blood clots were never considered to be a problem in the trials, until they were found during the rollout of the Scandinavian vaccination program. And that's what concerns a lot of intelligent people who have been slapped with the anti-vaxxer tab, both here and elsewhere, they don't feel the need to be guinea pigs for this kind of vaccine delivery tech until longer term results are in. It could almost be the plot for a sequel of I am Legend... should things go pear-shaped in later years...

For the actual clotting syndrome, TTS, 've had a - fairly brief - look at the TGA and other websites and cannot seem to find if this is a one-off issue, or TTS can cause ongoing complications that will require something like ongoing anticoagulant treatments following the diagnosis. Anyone shed any light on long-term treatment for TTS should you develop it?

[neville_nobody]

Originally Posted by dr dre View Post (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen-post11084140.html#post11084140)
Another day, another bunch of lies to debunk spread by the anti-vaxxers that have infected this site.


Those websites you listed don't really debunk anything. Other than animal trials they actually do more to confirm the all anti vaxxers worries. The dispatch website is full of "This claim is true however......"

It also confirms that the drug manufacturers can't be sued for side effects.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Insofar as the AZ vaccine, AIUI, blood clots were never considered to be a problem in the trials, until they were found during the rollout of the Scandinavian vaccination program. And that's what concerns a lot of intelligent people who have been slapped with the anti-vaxxer tab, both here and elsewhere, they don't feel the need to be guinea pigs for this kind of vaccine delivery tech until longer term results are in. It could almost be the plot for a sequel of I am Legend... should things go pear-shaped in later years...

Quoting the plot of a film and 'intelligent people' in the same argument seems to be somewhat contradictory. What is 'intelligent'?

[dr dre]

On the contrary, I don't think it's been lost on as many as you think. As you've said, this pandemic is the proof-of-concept for this style of vaccine delivery. Despite a quarter of a century of trying, they couldn't do it, then suddenly in response to Covid, they can.

Mass amounts of funding, a pandemic getting a lot of people infected so the ability to test vaccine effectiveness is rapid, large number of trial volunteers, previous work on SARS and MERS vaccines which are genetically similar, the genome of this virus was sequenced very early on, and a lot of manufacturing was pre done so doses ready to go once the vaccine was checked as safe. In addition to the rapid and exciting developments in science that have allowed safe vaccines to be created quicker in recent years.

And that's what concerns a lot of intelligent people who have been slapped with the anti-vaxxer tab, both here and elsewhere, they don't feel the need to be guinea pigs for this kind of vaccine delivery tech until longer term results are in.

Phase 3 trials are more about the efficacy of the vaccine and finding extremely rare side effects that aren’t picked up on phase 1 or 2 trials. Contrary to the idea that all you anti-vaxxers (yes I’ll use that term) have, the “long term trials” as you call them are more about finding issues that occur shortly after the vaccine is administered in a wide population, not issues that occur years down the track. This is the standard for all vaccines, a lot of which were “rushed” as you put it to market after a relatively short development, but you never seemed to have a problem with it then.

For the actual clotting syndrome, TTS, 've had a - fairly brief - look at the TGA and other websites and cannot seem to find if this is a one-off issue, or TTS can cause ongoing complications that will require something like ongoing anticoagulant treatments following the diagnosis. Anyone shed any light on long-term treatment for TTS should you develop it?

I think the problem is you’re coming to a pilot’s message board to ask for info and spread misinformation rather than consult a medical professional.

[MickG0105]

But let's assume the UNSW School of Population Health used "the wrong measure of efficacy" ...
Why assume? just read pretty much any paper dealing with vaccine efficacy. Try this one (https://www.thelancet.com/article/S1473-3099(20)30773-8/fulltext) - What defines an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2

A candidate vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 might act against infection, disease, or transmission, and a vaccine capable of reducing any of these elements could contribute to disease control. However, the most important efficacy endpoint, protection against severe disease and death, is difficult to assess in phase 3 clinical trials.

​​​​​​... the most important efficacy endpoint, protection against severe disease and death, ...

From a public health perspective hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths are what you want a vaccine to prevent or minimise because those are the factors that burden the health system. That is why those efficacy measures are far more important and why simply focussing on efficacy with regards to symptomatic transmission (which is subject to variation depending on when and where the Stage III trial was conducted) is the wrong measure.

[43Inches]

If you want details on each Vax go to the WHO website, or better still ask your GP. Don't folly around with local studies and in process research. Reading incomplete and study in progress data leads you to information that could be tainted by financial or ideological bias, and without a full medical background you will most likely misconstrue the information and come to some weird conclusions that were never the intent, hence half the comments on this page.

Fact is no medicine is completely safe, Astro Zeneca has a morbidity rate of about 1 in 250,000 vs the 2 in 100 rate of death for the virus it protects against. MMR vaccine given to children has a seizure rate of 1 in 3000 under 7 years old and is still advised to be administered at 12-15 months. In medical terms doctors the death rate has to be below 1 in 10,000 for it to be a worry, and of course much less than the condition it protects against.

In terms of efficacy, the Pfizer vaccine protects 94.5% of people from developing COVID.

The AstraZeneca shot protects 70% of people on average — still pretty good and on par with the protection given by a flu vaccine in a good year.

To clarify, both vaccines do not prevent you from getting Covid, however the efficacy is the rate at which it prevents the virus from becoming serious and life threatening.

AZ at present has a 63% efficacy rating, which IMO is too low, however this will still protect you from the most serious effects of the virus should you get it. So like the WHO advise, take whatever approved vaccine is available as this could save your life/health in the short term. You can always back up and take the next version later to boost your immunity. If you are worried about the side effects of AZ, isolate and stay out of the community until you can get the Pf and talk to your GP. My GP is relatively young and has taken AZ, his only worry is the efficacy holding up over time.

[Lead Balloon]

I'm always chuffed when you duck the substance of my posts, Mick.

So, the UNSW School of Population Health is definitely incompetent. How does that change the validity of my conclusion about the "perception" of "safety" of the Pfizer v AZ?

[SOPS]

I must not understand this Sydney lockdown properly. There is now a positive case that flew on a flight from Sydney to Ballina. ( amongst an ever increasing number of exposure sights).

Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!

[MickG0105]

AZ at present has a 63% efficacy rating ...
What is your source for that please?

As this diagram illustrates there are multiple points at which efficacy can be measured; some are more important than others.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1893x591/screenshot_20210725_105923_adobe_acrobat_1ec79a5257eb32d29c2 3fc40f7df80e26957d54b.jpg
Source: What defines an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. Hodgson et al

[43Inches]

AZ at present has a 63% efficacy rating ...

What is your source for that please?

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

That's the WHO rundown on it, under how effective it towards the bottom;

The AZD1222 vaccine against COVID-19 has an efficacy of 63.09% against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

It does say longer dose intervals increase that but does not specify by how much.

[MickG0105]

I'm always chuffed when you duck the substance of my posts, Mick.

I could probably say the same. For the sake of clarity and the avoidance of doubt, what was the substance of your post? I thought that it was, at least in part, trying to demonstrate that my contention regarding efficacy end points was wrong. I addressed that quite specifically.


So, the UNSW School of Population is definitely incompetent.
Seriously? You're going to run that nonsense line? That credits neither of us.

How does that change the validity of my conclusion about the "perception" of "safety" of the Pfizer v AZ?
So, was that the substance of your post? That's a long way from arguing that we bought into AstraZeneca based on costs or that in January we knew that Pfizer was 'the better vaccine'.

You'll get no arguments from me that thanks to a variety of factors, not the least of whom being the future Governor of Queensland, AstraZeneca has been pretty well trashed in the court of public opinion.

[Lead Balloon]

The substance of my post is that one of the primary causes of 'vaccine hesitancy' in Australia is that Pfizer is perceived to be better [has better efficacy] and safer [not as high a risk of bad side-effects] compared with AZ, and no amount of numbers you cite will change that, even if the numbers are correct.

And I don't see the point of your assertion that I used a 'nonsense line'. If, as you say, the UNSW School of Population Health has used the wrong measure of efficacy in numbers that it has published, it follows that the UNSW School of Population Health is incompetent (and contributing to misconceptions).

Oh...

And better get sh*t tonnes of Pfizer, ASAP.

[MickG0105]

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

That's the WHO rundown on it, under how effective it towards the bottom;



It does say longer dose intervals increase that but does not specify by how much.
Okey doke, thank you. That hasn't been updated since mid-April.

There have been subsequent studies posted, such as this (https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1088) one out of the UK, showing Pfizer and AstraZeneca as providing similar levels of protection against both symptomatic infection (not a critical measure) and hospitalisation. That UK study is instructive in that it shows Pfizer and AstraZeneca side-by-side in a high risk population (age 70 and over) during a period of medium-high exposure risk (December 2020 - January 2021).

But, at the end of the day, you do you.

[43Inches]

The substance of my post is that one of the primary causes of 'vaccine hesitancy' in Australia is that Pfizer is perceived to be better [has better efficacy] and safer [not as high a risk of bad side-effects] compared with AZ, and no amount of numbers you cite will change that, even if the numbers are correct.

This is sadly true and the horse has bolted, at least the government recognises that finally and has ordered large amounts of Pfizer to cover us for the next few years. Doesn't stop us from pushing the truth though, the AZ could, and has already saved many older people from the virus. From a personal POV I know of two groups within my family, one side vaccinated with AZ that are moving freely in the community without much care for their health, lockdowns aside and another few who are avoiding the vaccine and hiding away. What you choose to do is up to you.

That hasn't been updated since mid-April.

It's only updated on firm evidence, not from preliminary studies, as it says at the bottom regarding transmission.

[Lead Balloon]

Aged 70 and over...

[MickG0105]

Aged 70 and over...
Participants 156 930 adults aged 70 years and older who reported symptoms of covid-19 between 8 December 2020 and 19 February 2021 and were successfully linked to vaccination data in the National Immunisation Management System.
Yes, that's what the study looked at.

[MickG0105]

It's only updated on firm evidence, not from preliminary studies,
That BMJ Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines ... paper is not a 'preliminary study'. It's an International Committee of Medical Journal Editors peer reviewed case-control study.

But, you do you.

[Green.Dot]

Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!

Many reasons SOPS. Somebody who met the essential worker definition perhaps, or a Ballina resident returning home?

Whether they were legit is another question.

[43Inches]

That BMJ Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines ... paper is not a 'preliminary study'. It's an International Committee of Medical Journal Editors peer reviewed case-control study.

But, you do you.

I would also read the limitations section in that study where they say their findings should be treated with caution. The main issue is that the study does not take into account the habits of each individual post vaccination, so whether the vaccine itself is responsible or such things like how the individual isolated. The WHO data also takes into account generalised effectiveness over a number of different cultures, communities and age groups. Again taking studies out of context with no medical background can lead you to make assumptions that are not valid. The WHO information is dumbed down for the average public to follow and is based on general information.

[MickG0105]

I would also read the limitations section in that study where they say their findings should be treated with caution. The main issue is that the study does not take into account the habits of each individual post vaccination, so whether the vaccine itself is responsible or such things like how the individual isolated.
You know what else does not take into account the habits of each individual post vaccination, ... or such things like how the individual isolated? Stage III trials.

And do you know where the WHO got the 'efficacy of 63.09% against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection' data from? From AstraZeneca's Stage III trials.

The WHO data also takes into account generalised effectiveness over a number of different cultures, communities and age groups.
No, not really. It draws that 63.09 percent number exclusively and solely from AstraZeneca's Stage III trial findings.

[minigundiplomat]

I must not understand this Sydney lockdown properly. There is now a positive case that flew on a flight from Sydney to Ballina. ( amongst an ever increasing number of exposure sights).

Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!

Hemsworth or Damon?

[Piqued2]

We all know what a positive torture it is to fly with a cold.

Why would a Flight Attendant subject herself to the agony of numerous air pressure differentials when she has access to Sick Leave.

It didn’t sound right to me and inconvenienced a whole heap of passengers, and now, without explanation, this from Qld Health,

Close contacts update – 25 July 2021The following flights are no longer considered to be a contact tracing location and have been removed from the close contacts list:

Sunday 11 July

Flight QF2534 - Brisbane to Longreach
Flight QF2535 - Longreach to Brisbane
Flight QF2346 - Brisbane to Gladstone

Monday 12 July

Flight QF2331 - Gladstone to Brisbane
Flight QF2374 - Brisbane to Hervey Bay
Flight QF2375 - Hervey Bay to Brisbane

[43Inches]

No, not really. It draws that 63.09 percent number exclusively and solely from AstraZeneca's Stage III trial findings.

Hmm, I thought stage III trials found AZ to be 67-77% efficacy, with peaks at 79%.

[Going Nowhere]

Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!

To meet someone who had driven down from Brisbane to pick you up because you can't fly directly into Brisbane without going via QPS?

But you can drive from Ballina back into QLD in a car with QLD plates and no one would be any the wiser.

Until you both test positive for Covid that is...

[MickG0105]

Hmm, I thought stage III trials found AZ to be 67-77% efficacy, with peaks at 79%.
The WHO paper that they draw that efficacy of 63.09% (95% CI 51.81; 71.73) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection number from can be found here (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1331814/retrieve&ved=2ahUKEwiE5t_Go_3xAhU1muYKHZPUC5AQFjABegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw3tRuLkXhCeLOBN3JPDSFU0). It is just the aggregation of UK, Brazil and South African Stage III trials data.

From memory the US Stage III trial data was better again, likely as much due to the different prevailing conditions.

[43Inches]

You know what else does not take into account the habits of each individual post vaccination, ... or such things like how the individual isolated? Stage III trials.

And do you know where the WHO got the 'efficacy of 63.09% against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection' data from? From AstraZeneca's Stage III trials.

Stage three trials did however take a cross section of the community to a point. Not just focus on over 70s, so the numbers presented in that study only relate to that age group. That being said it is teh most vulnerable group so it's obvious why the focus.

Our results and those seen in the phase III clinical trials show similarities.

So overall the phase 3 trials were the same result.

Also this study was done on subjects self assessing, phase 3 was subjects were clinically assessed.

Misclassification is also likely to be a factor in this study. Symptoms are self-reported and may not be specific to covid-19 without clinician diagnosis. Furthermore, individuals may falsely report symptoms to have a test, which will include asymptomatic individuals in the symptomatic analysis and means that symptom onset dates are incorrect.

and this;

Failure to exclude those with past infection because of low testing rates in wave 1 is another possibility.

I mean it is comparing Apples and Oranges anyway as the Phase 3 trials are overall from 18-90 year olds and this study is only 70+. Also phase 3 studied Asymptomatic as well as Symptomatic, where this study focused only on Symptomatic.

The vaccine still does most of what it should, is safe and anyone over 65 should take it ASAP given no other options.

From memory the US Stage III trial data was better again, likely as much due to the different prevailing conditions.

That's where I got the peak of 79%. But yes the WHO data is based on the UK/Brazil trials.

PS I remember from the trials that there was some controversy over AZ not being trialed on many over 65, probably why this further study was taken.

[PoppaJo]

I must not understand this Sydney lockdown properly. There is now a positive case that flew on a flight from Sydney to Ballina. ( amongst an ever increasing number of exposure sights).

Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!
More details are now surfacing around this one.

I wonder if that positive case worked for Virgin too? He was picked up from Ballina by a Brisbane based Virgin CC and she drove him illegally back over the border. She is now positive. They both need to resign.

They knew what they were doing.

[SOPS]

More details are now surfacing around this one.

I wonder if that positive case worked for Virgin too? He was picked up from Ballina by a Brisbane based Virgin CC and she drove him illegally back over the border. She is now positive. They both need to resign.

They knew what they were doing.

If that’s true, they both should be in jail.

[lc_461]

More details are now surfacing around this one.

I wonder if that positive case worked for Virgin too? He was picked up from Ballina by a Brisbane based Virgin CC and she drove him illegally back over the border. She is now positive. They both need to resign.

They knew what they were doing.

Was it not previously reported that it was QF Link flight attendant? Exposure sites BNE/LRE QF flights? Or unrelated case?

[PoppaJo]

Was it not previously reported that it was QF Link flight attendant? Exposure sites BNE/LRE QF flights? Or unrelated case?

This Male and Female (Virgin) are unrelated.

I don’t believe they found the origin of the longreach case.

Hopefully Virgin deals with one or both of them pending his employment status.

[Green.Dot]

If that’s true, they both should be in jail.

As much as I agree, good luck with that.

The NSW removalists that were at the root cause of Vic locked down AGAIN and have caused BILLIONS of dollars of economic damage are unlikely to face charges. STRAYA- Fk Yeah!

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/covid-infected-sydney-removalists-who-sparked-melbourne-lockdown-unlikely-to-face-charges/news-story/68f113e3c29a632963035572dbd16143

[SHVC]

Can someone call the PM just get him to stop talking. I am confused now, I thought getting the population vaccinated would abate the need for lockdowns, Scott Morrison appears to say otherwise.


Vaccines ‘not a substitute for a lockdown’: PM

Mr Morrison said vaccines were not the key to greater Sydney coming out of lockdown.

That is despite state premiers and health officials repeatedly telling the general public that getting a Covid-19 jab would be an eventual ticket to freedom.

“There‘s not an easy way to bring the cases down and it’s the lockdown that does that work,” Mr Morrison said.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8bb801df877bdec793753129b9721c6b?width=650 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8bb801df877bdec793753129b9721c6b)An empty Pitt Street Mall in Sydney amid lockdown. Picture: Richard Dobson“The vaccines can provide some assistance, but they’re not what is going to end this lockdown.

Mr Morrison said he did not want it in “anyone’s mind that it replaces the principle tool, which is the lockdown”.

“It’s not a substitute for a lockdown. And you need to weigh up the effectiveness of that with the disruption to the broader vaccine program that could set other states and territories back some way in meeting their vaccination targets,“ he said.

“We need to get the whole country vaccinated. Those going through lockdowns, that‘s the principle way by which we’re able to bring the Delta variant under control in those cities.”

[Lead Balloon]

White noise. The state Premiers are deciding when to lockdown regions and borders.

Two jobs, Scotty.

[rattman]

Was it not previously reported that it was QF Link flight attendant? Exposure sites BNE/LRE QF flights? Or unrelated case?

Related to one of them, dunno which as both VA and Qlink have had positive hosties. This one crossed into ballina and picked up the male and drove him into qld. They both knew they were positive and went still went to dreamworld while knowingly sick

I think she is the QLink because there been some Qlink flights removed prior to him crossing in to QLD

[Lookleft]

This is the story behind the QLink F/A. She is going to have some explaining to her Managers and will be lucky to keep her job.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-25/queensland-coronavirus-sydney-man-flight-attendant-case/100321164

[Capt Fathom]

Why would you fly into Ballina? The fares are generally more expensive!
Surely they would not be attempting to avoid the authorities at Brisbane Airport? :=

[PoppaJo]

My apologies. Newscorpse wrong again. This is what they said. Replace Virgin Flight Attendant with Qantas Flight Attendant and that solves that one.

A NSW who allegedly entered the sunny state, allegedly illegally, has been identified as the source of infection for a Virgin flight attendant who later tested positive for Covid-19.

The man flew from Sydney to Ballina on July 14, where he was picked up from Ballina airport in NSW by a Virgin flight attendant.

[DirectAnywhere]

My apologies. Newscorpse wrong again. This is what they said. Replace Virgin Flight Attendant with Qantas Flight Attendant and that solves that one.

A NSW who allegedly entered the sunny state, allegedly illegally, has been identified as the source of infection for a Virgin flight attendant who later tested positive for Covid-19.

The man flew from Sydney to Ballina on July 14, where he was picked up from Ballina airport in NSW by a Virgin flight attendant.

That’s not the case according to the direct quotes from Steven Miles.

“He was then collected from Ballina airport by the flight attendant that we reported positive in Queensland on Friday”. That’s the QLINK F/A.

If she knew he was supposed to be in isolation in NSW and knowingly aided him in avoiding police at Brisbane airport then, should she be charged and convicted, that would be the end of her ASIC and flying career.

It may explain why she took a week after becoming symptomatic to get tested.

She has potentially put at the risk the careers and livelihoods of hundreds of Queensland based colleagues, not to mention the health of all Queenslanders. It’s hard to find much sympathy, assuming of course that things have both transpired as reported and she knew he was supposed to be isolating in Sydney.

[SOPS]

That’s not the case according to the direct quotes from Steven Miles.

“He was then collected from Ballina airport by the flight attendant that we reported positive in Queensland on Friday”. That’s the QLINK F/A.

If she knew he was supposed to be in isolation in NSW and knowingly aided him in avoiding police at Brisbane airport then, should she be charged and convicted, that would be the end of her ASIC and flying career.

It may explain why she took a week after becoming symptomatic to get tested.

She has potentially put at the risk the careers and livelihoods of hundreds of Queensland based colleagues, not to mention the health of all Queenslanders. It’s hard to find much sympathy, assuming of course that things have both transpired as reported and she knew he was supposed to be isolating in Sydney.
What a mess!! This could spread in QLD now.

[DirectAnywhere]

Amazingly, they might have dodged a bullet given that he travelled on 12 July, 13 days ago and there don’t appear to have been any cases
linked to him apart from the F/A. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome for everyone’s sake.

[SOPS]

Amazingly, they might have dodged a bullet given that he travelled on 12 July, 13 days ago and there don’t appear to have been any cases
linked to him apart from the F/A. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome for everyone’s sake.

Thats good news.

[Lookleft]

She then drove him back to Queensland, and health authorities believe he's responsible for infecting her with the Delta strain.

Thats a new way of describing it! Clearly masks are pointless when being infected with the Delta strain.

[machtuk]

Amazing that one person (the F/A in question) can bring so much fear to so many, such an outcome the generals of past wars would loved to have had!

[SOPS]

And I see the Tik Tok moron who was ‘predicting’ case numbers was at the protests. There really is no hope for NSW.. and aviation .

[Gnadenburg]

I just got home from visiting my mother. On the way back home, I was delayed by a “convoy” of anti vax protest cars blocking a 3 lane, 70 Kph highway by driving at 20 kph in all lanes. Their cars were covered in anti vax slogans.. including my favourite ..5G kills.

With these morons around, we have no hope.

I thought you explained you were living remotely, hence your reluctance to rush vaccination?

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Can we please change the title of the thread to Borders never to open . With the requirement for 3 monthly jabs, looking likely the novelty will wear off for most people leading to this groundhog day we are stuck in .
There is no solution only a delay in the inevitable. China will take over the world without destroying any infrastructure .

[kiwi grey]

I must not understand this Sydney lockdown properly. There is now a positive case that flew on a flight from Sydney to Ballina. ( amongst an ever increasing number of exposure sights).
Can someone explain to me, if you are in lockdown, why are you on a flight to Ballina?!
Because it's not a real lockdown.

For example
"It is also considered a reasonable excuse to leave your home if you need to ... move ... between your different places of residence"
Which means if you live in Epping and have a holiday home in Yamba, it's OK to move between them: you don't have to choose and stick with one or the other.

Also
"Businesses providing essential products and services that can be open include grocery stores including butchers, bakeries, fruit and vegetable, seafood
other food or drink retailers that predominantly sell or display food or drinks
kiosks and other small food and drink premises
banks and financial institutions
hardware, building supplies
landscaping material supplies
agricultural and rural supplies
shops that, in the normal course of business, operate as or sell and display
pet supplies
newsagents
office supplies
liquor stores
post offices
garden centres and plant nurseries
vehicle hire premises, not including the premises at which vehicles are sold;
shops that predominantly carry out repairs of mobile phones
laundromats and drycleaners."

For contrast, none of those retail businesses were open in NZ during our "Level 4" lockdown. The only ones allowed to open were supermarkets, pharmacies and service stations. If you wanted meat or vegetables, you had to buy what the supermarket was offering, the specialty shops were shut.

And IMO, that's the problem with NSW at the moment,

"It is also considered a reasonable excuse to leave your home if you need to ...
move ... between your different places of residence"
"It is also considered a reasonable excuse to leave your home if you need to ...
move ... between your different places of residence"

[SOPS]

I thought you explained you were living remotely, hence your reluctance to rush vaccination?
ummm.. not me. I’m fully vaxed. Think you are confusing me with someone else.

[601]

And IMO, that's the problem with NSW at the moment,

And that is the reason that the NSW Govt tried to keep the economy ticking over in previous breakouts, unlike Vic with a full lockdown.
That worked with the earlier strains of Covid as in the Northern Beaches.
Everyone was lauding the "Gold Standard" of NSW, localised containment while keeping the State open.

But the Delta strain has a different play book.
We are ALL learning as time goes on.

We just need the Richard Craniums out there to follow the advice of the CMOs.



.

[Xeptu]

And that is the reason that the NSW Govt tried to keep the economy ticking over in previous breakouts, unlike Vic with a full lockdown.
That worked with the earlier strains of Covid as in the Northern Beaches.
Everyone was lauding the "Gold Standard" of NSW, localised containment while keeping the State open.

Errr! No, The only people that was lauding NSW as the Gold Standard was NSW. Our states medical professionals which were helping out in Vic at the time thought NSW was reckless and predicted to fall, it just took a bit longer than expected that's all.

[Chronic Snoozer]

And that is the reason that the NSW Govt tried to keep the economy ticking over in previous breakouts, unlike Vic with a full lockdown.
That worked with the earlier strains of Covid as in the Northern Beaches.
Everyone was lauding the "Gold Standard" of NSW, localised containment while keeping the State open.

But the Delta strain has a different play book.
We are ALL learning as time goes on.

We just need the Richard Craniums out there to follow the advice of the CMOs.



.
The personification of COVID-19 has gone to hysterical levels. I did not know viruses had playbooks. But then you learn all kinds of stuff on this site. I thought 'Platinum' was the highest standard.

[KRviator]

We just need the Richard Craniums out there to follow the advice of the CMOs.Perhaps when the CHO's themselves can come to some sort of agreement about what constitutes a hotspot, or a lockdown, people will begin to listen. But right now, the only message that seems to be getting out there is either: "Don't take the AZ vaccine if you want to live!" or "If you're rich enough, you're not as much of a risk as a pauper, so come to Queensland and spend your money here!"

There's absolutely zero consensus among these so-called 'experts' that we're being implored to listen to, and that's a massive problem, not only for the Government and their vaccination message, but Australia as a whole, because apart from having a marketing guru swan off to Hawaii in the middle of a crisis, we're now a half-dozen individual nations each with their own definitions, rules, standards and procedures to gain entry.

Consider Gladys' request for some states to give up a portion of their vaccines to allow NSW to get more vaccinations going - which state said "Sure, here's some of ours!" McGowan said "Get stuffed, it's allocated on aper capita basis and you're not having ours", Anna-Stayaway said similar. Guess NSW should have been enforcing international arrivals and air-freight throughput as a function of their percentage of Australian's too, rather than taking, at times, 2/3rds of international arrivals and (I think I read - happy to be corrected) 75% of all incoming airfreight.

[Gnadenburg]

ummm.. not me. I’m fully vaxed. Think you are confusing me with someone else.

My Apologies. Struggling to keep up with so many protagonists.

[dr dre]

Consider Gladys' request for some states to give up a portion of their vaccines to allow NSW to get more vaccinations going - which state said "Sure, here's some of ours!" McGowan said "Get stuffed, it's allocated on aper capita basis and you're not having ours", Anna-Stayaway said similar.

Someone did say get stuffed (https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/23/2021/1627020422/dose-her-own-medicine) to a vaccine request, it was.......

Speaking to radio hosts Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O, Berejiklian was asked about the idea that Victoria – at that point in a lockdown with both Kappa and Delta variants circulating – might want some of “our” doses. “No, they can’t,” she says.
“Why does everyone look to us to save their own stupid decisions?” Sandilands asks. “I can’t comment on that,” Berejiklian sighs, as if she would very much like to.

And just so everyone can see it for real, the relevant footage starts at 2:30 in. Also great to hear is the smuggest talk right after about how NSW people “are doing the right thing”......:yuk:

Gladys Berejiklian Confirms NSW Pfizer Vaccines Won't Go To VIC

Guess NSW should have been enforcing international arrivals and air-freight throughput as a function of their percentage of Australian's too, rather than taking, at times, 2/3rds of international arrivals and (I think I read - happy to be corrected) 75% of all incoming airfreight.

At times, but overall NSW and WA (https://covidlive.com.au/report/arrivals-per-population) have been the states with the highest proportion of arrivals per capita with roughly similar figures. Both eclipsed per capita by the NT arrivals into Howard Springs however.

NSW and WA are about 50% higher than SA and Qld, with Victoria in 6th.

[Transition Layer]

Errr! No, The only people that was lauding NSW as the Gold Standard was NSW. Our states medical professionals which were helping out in Vic at the time thought NSW was reckless and predicted to fall, it just took a bit longer than expected that's all.

Which state is that Xeptu? Not WA I hope (“swan downunder”). Their health system is in a complete shambles and should not be throwing stones across the borders

[Chronic Snoozer]

Someone did say get stuffed (https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/23/2021/1627020422/dose-her-own-medicine) to a vaccine request, it was.......

Speaking to radio hosts Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O, Berejiklian was asked about the idea that Victoria – at that point in a lockdown with both Kappa and Delta variants circulating – might want some of “our” doses. “No, they can’t,” she says.
“Why does everyone look to us to save their own stupid decisions?” Sandilands asks. “I can’t comment on that,” Berejiklian sighs, as if she would very much like to.



She says "I can't" not "they can't". A subtle and possibly significant difference. And then points out the federal government was already sending more AZ to Victoria. But she did herself no favours in the rest of the interview. If the federal government is distributing the vaccines then surely they can decide how they're allocated to each state.

[Foxxster]

The problem is a lack of Pfizer and yet…

The Health Ministry will destroy at least 800,000 expiring coronavirus vaccine doses if no buyers are found for them in the next two weeks, according to a report Monday.

The doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines, set to expire at the end of July, are worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to the Kan public broadcaster.

Israel’s search for a taker for the shots come as many countries are expanding their vaccination drives to combat the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has sent case numbers in some places soaring.

Israel has some 1.4 million shots that will expire at the end of July, but hopes to use 600,000 of them to vaccinate 300,000 teens ages 12 to 15 by then, Kan reported, without attributing the information to a source.

Israel is reportedly in talks with several countries to either purchase the vaccines, or take them in exchange for vaccines they had been set to receive later, which will instead go to Israel. The report did not name the countries.


https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-may-have-to-throw-away-nearly-1-million-covid-vaccines/

[SOPS]

NT government is now telling any Territorian that is currently in NSW to come home now. I can hear a full border closure coming.

In other news, I see that some experts are saying the Sydney lockdown might have to go on until Christmas. When are people going to realise that.. stay at home… means STAY AT HOME!!!

[SHVC]

PM is doing no favors either he said on the 23rd that lockdowns will be the primary means of controlling covid even with high vaccination rates. Premiers May control the states, he still controls the international border.

[Foxxster]

PM is doing no favors either he said on the 23rd that lockdowns will be the primary means of controlling covid even with high vaccination rates. Premiers May control the states, he still controls the international border.

there should be NO measures when we have high vaccination rates. NONE.

[Dannyboy39]

Can someone call the PM just get him to stop talking. I am confused now, I thought getting the population vaccinated would abate the need for lockdowns, Scott Morrison appears to say otherwise.
Vaccines ‘not a substitute for a lockdown’: PM

When you allow governments to see that semi-authoritarian measures will be accepted by the people, why would they stop? Even here in the UK with 70% of the adult population now fully vaccinated and 88% of the adult population having at least one dose, a considerable section of the scientific community wanting perpetual restrictions. One prominent group not wanting to open schools in March and then still have restrictions until EVERYONE including kids are vaccinated.

I'm 100% pro vaccine, but you have to give the population at large the carrot. Because there will be the need for boosters. If a vaccine doesn't equal reopening, people will not come out to get it.

[KRviator]

there should be NO measures when we have high vaccination rates. NONE.Except if you consider the results of the UK, with current vaccination percentages, cases & deaths, and apply them to Australia you'll get:
UK Figures - Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
88% have had their first dose
70% have had their second dose
29,000 people tested positive today and;
28 people died

The "equivalent" Australian figures:
11,000 new cases and;
10 deaths.

So, given previous statements and actions by respective Governments in Australia - of all persuasions - does anyone honestly thing that (no restrictions) will occur? If you do, I've got a bridge with an awesome view I can sell you cheap...

[Foxxster]

U might also look at the uk for the possible or likely future of international travel, regarding testing, and what happens if you test positive while away, the cost, the traffic light system which like our borders can change or lockdown overnight. And the queues on arrival due to various reasons like their track and trace app. Don’t think the road back to international travel is going to be quick.

[Foxxster]

Except if you consider the results of the UK, with current vaccination percentages, cases & deaths, and apply them to Australia you'll get:
UK Figures - Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
88% have had their first dose
70% have had their second dose
29,000 people tested positive today and;
28 people died

The "equivalent" Australian figures:
11,000 new cases and;
10 deaths.

So, given previous statements and actions by respective Governments in Australia - of all persuasions - does anyone honestly thing that (no restrictions) will occur? If you do, I've got a bridge with an awesome view I can sell you cheap...


what will happen and what SHOULD happen are often not the same.

but if we get to those rates and Gladys brings in another lockdown then there will be more than 5000 protesting, and I will be one of them. And I am tired of every friggin death being reported. 28 died in the uk in a day of WuHu flu. How many die of normal flu in the uk per day. Were ANY of those deaths EVER reported on an individual basis.

[Dannyboy39]

How many die of normal flu in the uk per day
Around 1500 people per day. The UK is currently below its average annual death rate for 2021.

[Xeptu]

Which state is that Xeptu? Not WA I hope (“swan downunder”). Their health system is in a complete shambles and should not be throwing stones across the borders

I'm well aware, I don't think any of the states are all that prepared, they don't want to spend the money on something that might not happen.

[Turnleft080]

Just like to compare a few facts.
This time last year Melbourne was in Lockdown 2.
On this day last year 26/07/20, Melbourne recorded 453 cases and 10 deaths. Melbourne averaged about 15 deaths per day throughout the lockdown period.
Today with this real beast of a strain called Delta, Sydney record 145 cases 51 in community, 2 deaths, 10 in total since the lockdown started.
That's by eyeballing the graphs on worldometers, and add Sydney's claytons lockdown compared to Melbourne.

What do make of that. Comparatively shouldn't deaths be at least 20 a day. Which proves the Delta is not as deadly as the Wuhan.
Could of fooled me. Therefore I can conclude, the words spoken at every press conference are nothing but a fear, shock and awe show.
I have just put the entire NSW health department (the one Gladys relies on) in check, by just looking at a graph open to all.

[Australopithecus]

What do anniversary dates have to do with your comparison? The delta strain mortality rate may indeed be lower, but since deaths lag cases by a few weeks it is too early to tell. Also the current outbreak may be infecting a different demographic since lots of the really vulnerable have in fact been vaccinated.

Either way, I cannot see lockdowns once we have passed some (arbitrary, politically expedient) vaccination uptake. In our well-intentioned drive to zero cases we have set the stage for covid hysteria and given the government a really convenient threat to protect us from.

[Cloudee]

Around 1500 people per day. The UK is currently below its average annual death rate for 2021.

Really. Are you sure that’s not per year?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzadeathsin20182019and2020

[SOPS]

I thought 1500 a day sounded like a lot!!!

[Dannyboy39]

I thought 1500 a day sounded like a lot!!!
Sorry I read that wrong - I meant 1500 a day of all causes. Because at the end of the day, every death is tragic regardless of the cause.

[Turnleft080]

What do anniversary dates have to do with your comparison? The delta strain mortality rate may indeed be lower, but since deaths lag cases by a few weeks it is too early to tell. Also the current outbreak may be infecting a different demographic since lots of the really vulnerable have in fact been vaccinated.

Either way, I cannot see lockdowns once we have passed some (arbitrary, politically expedient) vaccination uptake. In our well-intentioned drive to zero cases we have set the stage for covid hysteria and given the government a really convenient threat to protect us from.
A lot of statisticians will be comparing anniversaries with last years figures domestically and worldwide. I try another in 4 weeks time then.

[mattyj]

Because at the end of the day, every death is tragic regardless of the cause

that’s not true..everyone dies..including you. I will give you a 100% guarantee.

If every death is a tragedy, then life isn’t worth living

[MickG0105]

Melbourne averaged about 15 deaths per day throughout the lockdown period.

The second Melbourne lockdown went for 112 days, so that can't be the daily average. A little less than half that, say 7.25 deaths per day would be closer to the mark.

Just like to compare a few facts.This time last year Melbourne was in Lockdown 2.On this day last year 26/07/20, Melbourne recorded 453 cases and 10 deaths. Melbourne averaged about 15 deaths per day throughout the lockdown period.Today with this real beast of a strain called Delta, Sydney record 145 cases 51 in community, 2 deaths, 10 in total since the lockdown started.That's by eyeballing the graphs on worldometers, and add Sydney's claytons lockdown compared to Melbourne. What do make of that. Comparatively shouldn't deaths be at least 20 a day.
A couple of things to bear in mind here. It's pointless comparing dates twelve months apart when they fall on different places on the case count curve. Further, when Melbourne did go into lockdown the daily case counts were already in three figures; they were much further along the case count curve than where Sydney is presently.

Finally, if you were seeing 10 deaths from 453 cases last year why would you now be expecting to see 20 deaths from 145 cases - that's a better than sixfold increase in the case fatality rate. ​​​​​​​

[novice110]

Turnleft080

As someone else said the demographics are very different in this NSW outbreak.
VIC had many in aged care and unvaccinated. NSW has managed to shield them / vaccinate them.

There are roughly the same amount of ICU patients currently admitted in NSW as there was in VICs PEAK last year.

The delta strain may be less lethal (?), but is proving more transmissible.

[Turnleft080]

MickG0105 & novice
Fair enough. Just trying to compare the Wuhan/Melbourne & Delta/Sydney. Realise different demographics,
I'm guessing less cases and less deaths when SYD get to 112 days. (all hoping < 112 lockdown of course)

The delta strain may be less lethal (?), but is proving more transmissible.
I guess thats better than more lethal and less transmissible.

[Australopithecus]

MickG0105 & novice


The delta strain may be less lethal (?), but is proving more transmissible.
I guess thats better than more lethal and less transmissible.

Don’t know about that. The delta numbers show that its more than twice as contagious, but its hard to compare mortality since there are increasing numbers of the vaccinated which would skew the mortality rates lower. One thing is clear is that covid is going to become an affliction of the unvaccinated, and that cohort will suffer higher risk and higher mortality than ever (in this country) because eventually lockdowns will end, and devil takes the hindmost.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Taiwan's been having problems containing the Alpha strain.

Taiwan exits lockdown (https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/learning-the-hard-way-taiwan-exits-lockdown-and-steps-up-vaccine-race-20210726-p58cyc.html)

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Soooo - In Victoria, from midnight - you are not allowed to go visit your relatives (or anyones) household, BUT you can go to a restaurant or pub!!!! So you can meet your family for dinner in a restaurant with up to 40 people. Makes sense ....:ugh: