All borders to reopen.

[compressor stall]

Last year when Vic was persona non grata everywhere, when paxing to WA, before security was a checkpoint where you had to show your G2G pass and boarding pass.

How it would affect the current arrangement where you can go through security domestically if not travelling I'm not sure, but just pointing out that there is a precedent. It wasn't run by the airlines IIRC.

[galdian]

Just find it amazing no one appears to think the person travelling has any responsibility for deciding whether they should travel or not - surely that should be where the buck starts and stops?

[43Inches]

Can't see the problem with airlines doing it, simple adjustment to T&C, "no jab no fly" and documents checked at check in/boarding, exactly how its done to insure revenue for the flight. Have no proof, don't fly, better have good excuse or lose ticket, no refund, this is already done for other medical conditions that are prohibited for flight without a doctors cert. Cost to airline, Nada, as its already done for revenue assurance. In fact there's actual cost benefit to the airline as preventing spread of communicable diseases will save the company in sick leave costs overall.

Cost of setting up TSA style security at state/fed cost, $5-$20 per passenger head tax or from public tax revenue of similar amount.

What would I prefer? Pretty sure the answers obviously the free of cost option.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

No point to having a vaccination passport. Israel, UK and Iceland, are reporting that Delta is spreading despite being vaccinated. The virus will spread whether you travel vaccinated or not.

[PoppaJo]

Holy ****

When exactly is the peak of this thing?

[43Inches]

Holy ****

When exactly is the peak of this thing?

The more you let a virus rip through communities the more chance it evolves/mutates into something worse. This is the real danger of letting things go...

That being said the death rate is much lower in the vaccinated currently so infection rate is not the prime concern there.

[KRviator]

466 today. Reminds me of the old NSW numberplates: NSW - The First State!

What I find amusing, but moreso concerning, is the Armidale lockdown being extended by a week, despite there being zero cases detected up there since that Newcastle bird toured the area. But, as usual, it's "based on the health advice"

Armidale lockdown to extend for an extra seven days despite no casesThe Premier has announced an extension of the Armidale lockdown. She said this was due to health advice, despite no cases.

There were 26 new cases in Dubbo and surrounding areas announced. There were 16 new cases on the Hunter and New England region. Source (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-14/covid-live-blog-latest-updates-nsw-vic-act-lockdown/100376634#live-blog-post-1202865382)By that token, shouldn't Perth still be locked down? I mean, they had a positive case a while back. And Cairns too. When the health advice is consistent advice across the various CHO's and Premiers, people might start taking it seriously. But they can't get their stories straight, and that makes a mockery of the entire process.

[Angle of Attack]

I’m no expert but it will peak when things get really serious , hospitals become over capacity and deaths spike massively.
Probably 3-4000 cases a day is my guess.

[minigundiplomat]

466 today. Reminds me of the old NSW numberplates: NSW - The First State!

What I find amusing, but moreso concerning, is the Armidale lockdown being extended by a week, despite there being zero cases detected up there since that Newcastle bird toured the area. But, as usual, it's "based on the health advice"

By that token, shouldn't Perth still be locked down? I mean, they had a positive case a while back. And Cairns too. When the health advice is consistent advice across the various CHO's and Premiers, people might start taking it seriously. But they can't get their stories straight, and that makes a mockery of the entire process.

Cairns has year round UV and a population that generally does the right thing. Whatever the perceptions of the FNQ population they wear masks when told to, scan in to places and stay home if they are sick.

It’s not the rules that are at issue in NSW, it’s the willingness of the the population to comply. Victoria leaned the hard way last year that you may think you’re the epicentre of the known world, but you still have to follow the rules. NSW are still learning…

[MickG0105]

What I find amusing, but moreso concerning, is the Armidale lockdown being extended by a week, despite there being zero cases detected up there since that Newcastle bird toured the area. But, as usual, it's "based on the health advice"

Apparently they were seeing COVID-19 fragments in the local sewage for the first time and there was another case, their fourth, recorded in Armidale yesterday according to this (https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/7384468/coronavirus-detected-in-tamworth-sewage-for-the-first-time/) reporting. They're highly unlikely to lift a lockdown under those circumstances.

[cloudsurfng]

Case numbers should not be the focus. About time these f&$kwits stopped with daily press conferences. They are drunk on the power and control. It’s hospitalisations etc that matter.

that said, at least it seems to be scaring the ‘hesitant’ into getting jabbed.

[Ladloy]

Gold standard

[Xeptu]

Cairns has year round UV and a population that generally does the right thing. Whatever the perceptions of the FNQ population they wear masks when told to, scan in to places and stay home if they are sick.

It’s not the rules that are at issue in NSW, it’s the willingness of the the population to comply. Victoria leaned the hard way last year that you may think you’re the epicentre of the known world, but you still have to follow the rules. NSW are still learning…

The 17% of "don't give a **** people" are in every state, that's why we can't have a half arsed lockdown, They wont do it if the people across the road are not locked down as well.
NSW problem is that with the greatest population comes the greatest number of them in that 17%.demographics will also play a role.

Someone mentioned 1st world medical response. If the case numbers rise to anywhere near 100 per day requiring ICU care, don't expect much more than sitting on a plastic chair strapped to an oxygen bottle.

[Ladloy]

Case numbers should not be the focus. About time these f&$kwits stopped with daily press conferences. They are drunk on the power and control. It’s hospitalisations etc that matter.

that said, at least it seems to be scaring the ‘hesitant’ into getting jabbed.

Case rates can't be ignored until we reach a decent level of vaccination

[43Inches]

It’s hospitalisations etc that matter.

Hospitalisations is a lagging factor, by the time you get one, 100 will be infected, by the time 20 of those are hospitalised, 1000 will be infected. Even case numbers require the virus to be circulating for about 2 weeks before you will have enough virus in your system to test "positive".

Deaths are the same, some don't pass away for several weeks after contracting the virus. So death rate today is roughly for case numbers 1-2 weeks ago, as are hospitalisations, and case numbers are for people infected up to 2 weeks before.

This is not some computer game where you have real time data, everything has already happened and will happen, the government is playing catch-up with the numbers. This was always why contact tracing within the community was going to fail in the long run. Prevention requires breaking the numbers before they occur, not chasing your tail for where it has been.

[SOPS]

NSW is gone for months. There is no hope of getting in under control in the short term. Gold standard.

[lineupandwait]

What purpose is there in a press conference everyday announcing case numbers? We will never get back to zero - forget it. So what the point of announcing case numbers?

Present the plan on the way out and how and when kids are going to get back to school. Probably only need one press conference a week.

oh that’s right it’s called Covid theatre.

[Xeptu]

What purpose is there in a press conference everyday announcing case numbers? We will never get back to zero - forget it. So what the point of announcing case numbers?

Present the plan on the way out and how and when kids are going to get back to school. Probably only need one press conference a week.

oh that’s right it’s called Covid theatre.

If you're parked at home, locked down, not in the effected zone, then there probably isn't a need to know and it would get understandably tedious.
For those in the front line, essential services, do need that information in order to plan response needs and requirements. If it was only a need to know basis then the public would complain about that and draw all sorts of conclusions.

[Gnadenburg]

NSW is gone for months. There is no hope of getting in under control in the short term. Gold standard.

Conversely, how will the other States learn to live with COVID with elections in 2022? Elimination strategies can not last forever. Many Premiers keep using military jargon, the battle with COVID, we are on a war footing to eliminate blah blah blah. Well it's actually time some of us died for our country so we don't bankrupt our children' futures. A PLA naval task force couldn't do the economic damage misguided COVID policy has achieved. Enough is enough.

[Xeptu]

Conversely, how will the other States learn to live with COVID with elections in 2022? Elimination strategies can not last forever. Many Premiers keep using military jargon, the battle with COVID, we are on a war footing to eliminate blah blah blah. Well it's actually time some of us died for our country so we don't bankrupt our children' futures. A PLA naval task force couldn't do the economic damage misguided COVID policy has achieved. Enough is enough.

It's good to see that there are some among us willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for our country and fellow aussies. Do we have a job for you, we certainly do. Good on you.

[43Inches]

Conversely, how will the other States learn to live with COVID with elections in 2022? Elimination strategies can not last forever. Many Premiers keep using military jargon, the battle with COVID, we are on a war footing to eliminate blah blah blah. Well it's actually time some of us died for our country so we don't bankrupt our children' futures. A PLA naval task force couldn't do the economic damage misguided COVID policy has achieved. Enough is enough.

Unfortunately the rest of the world has something to say about that, and if we actually did go gung ho just make money out of this over life, we would shoot ahead of the world and inflation would bite our arse back to 1989. But most likely we would be no better off with a lot more dead people. Fact is the rest of the world is in the same economic position we are, and most of them are ravaged by covid deaths on top of that. So what evidence is there that letting it rip will make us any better off?, none at all. All that would happen is that covid would kill more and we would be worse off again. The USA has proved this, mostly open, a lot died and its cost them over double per person than what it has cost Australia. USA still has 30% of its small business closed or in hibernation from 2019 numbers. We only had business closed during lockdowns. From how USA and the UK coffers look, dealing with an actual pandemic has cost them 2-4 times more than us hiding from it.

[Gnadenburg]

It's good to see that there are some among us willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for our country and fellow aussies. Do we have a job for you, we certainly do. Good on you.


I've struggled to follow the meanings of your posts. Some of our States have an economically unsustainable, though political acceptable, policy of Elimination. Yours has always been a policy of Fear.

Australia has the means to come out of this pandemic yet many seem to lack the will. It's too cosy for many not affected.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43Inches - what a lot of bollocks.

The USA owes its death rate to ignoring the virus under trump. Since the vaccinations came online and Biden, the US are way ahead wrt to vaccination rates. The US is fully open. You DO NOT need a vaccination passport or even to be vaccinated to enter the US.

Studies are showing that Delta is infecting even vaccinated people. Lockdowns will not stop the infections. Excess deaths are the only metric that governments should be reporting. Gladys talking about people in there 90s dying of Covid is pointless. She even reported of a person in his 90s dying - Fully Vaccinated. Today she announced some poor person dying from Covid - oh but he was in palliative care .....

The Australian public is fed fear. End these bloody lockdowns. THE VIRUS IS HERE and we need to live with it. if you are scared of catching it, don't mix with the public.

[lineupandwait]

If you're parked at home, locked down, not in the effected zone, then there probably isn't a need to know and it would get understandably tedious.
For those in the front line, essential services, do need that information in order to plan response needs and requirements. If it was only a need to know basis then the public would complain about that and draw all sorts of conclusions.

Maybe just check the internet for the latest restrictions???

Covid theatre...

[SOPS]

And … there goes all of NSW into lockdown for at least a week. Gladys had just been quoted as saying… All of Australia is now under threat.


Gold Standard.

[PoppaJo]

I’m no expert but it will peak when things get really serious , hospitals become over capacity and deaths spike massively.
Probably 3-4000 cases a day is my guess.

Well it appears things have potentially deteriorated further within the last 24hrs.

Statewide shutdown from 5pm.

[Gnadenburg]

So what evidence is there that letting it rip will make us any better off?, none at all. All that would happen is that covid would kill more and we would be worse off again.

I don't follow your economic modelling. However, I did not say let it rip. I believe the politics of COVID elimination will be devastating by next year. Eventually some of us will have to die. Hopefully, vaccinations protect most. But this path is not sustainable, not for the economy, not for social cohesion, not for dealing with emerging security threats.

[Xeptu]

I don't follow your economic modelling. However, I did not say let it rip. I believe the politics of COVID elimination will be devastating by next year. Eventually some of us will have to die. Hopefully, vaccinations protect most. But this path is not sustainable, not for the economy, not for social cohesion, not for dealing with emerging security threats.

I don't think anyone will disagree with that, however the whole world is in the same boat, are we not better off learning from other countries first before taking risks that are not recoverable.

[Chris2303]

I may have said this before but it needs saying again

The world will NEVER EVER be what it was pre Covid.

If you can't accept that then I am sorry for you.

[Xeptu]

I've struggled to follow the meanings of your posts. Some of our States have an economically unsustainable, though political acceptable, policy of Elimination. Yours has always been a policy of Fear.

Australia has the means to come out of this pandemic yet many seem to lack the will. It's too cosy for many not affected.

Have you been infected personally, are you a long covid sufferer, if the answers to that question is no, then go and get yourself infected, preferably while helping those that are.
Then come back and have this conversation, we'll see if you still follow the same line of learn to live with it, no matter what.

[43Inches]

43Inches - what a lot of bollocks.

The USA owes its death rate to ignoring the virus under trump. Since the vaccinations came online and Biden, the US are way ahead wrt to vaccination rates. The US is fully open. You DO NOT need a vaccination passport or even to be vaccinated to enter the US.

Studies are showing that Delta is infecting even vaccinated people. Lockdowns will not stop the infections. Excess deaths are the only metric that governments should be reporting. Gladys talking about people in there 90s dying of Covid is pointless. She even reported of a person in his 90s dying - Fully Vaccinated. Today she announced some poor person dying from Covid - oh but he was in palliative care .....

The Australian public is fed fear. End these bloody lockdowns. THE VIRUS IS HERE and we need to live with it. if you are scared of catching it, don't mix with the public.


If the USA recovered so well why is their Covid recovery package over double per capita than Australia? $6 Trillion USD with more slated to come, which is over $22,000 per person with about another $10,000 per person expected in the next year. That is Stimulus alone, not the cost of Covid.

Meanwhile Australia has only spent around $11,000 AUD ($8000 USD)per person on Covid stimulus and still is better off compared the US when you factor recovery since last year.

Again ranting emotive language will not change the data.

As far as scared, you should be if you are not vaccinated, if you are then you have no reason to fear it. The mortality rate and severe complications become comparable to the flu once vaccinated. My Opinion is that Australia will most likely open around New Year or earlier if vaccine targets are met. From then you are either vaccinated or have Covid the natural way.

[machtuk]

43Inches - what a lot of bollocks.

The USA owes its death rate to ignoring the virus under trump. Since the vaccinations came online and Biden, the US are way ahead wrt to vaccination rates. The US is fully open. You DO NOT need a vaccination passport or even to be vaccinated to enter the US.

Studies are showing that Delta is infecting even vaccinated people. Lockdowns will not stop the infections. Excess deaths are the only metric that governments should be reporting. Gladys talking about people in there 90s dying of Covid is pointless. She even reported of a person in his 90s dying - Fully Vaccinated. Today she announced some poor person dying from Covid - oh but he was in palliative care .....

The Australian public is fed fear. End these bloody lockdowns. THE VIRUS IS HERE and we need to live with it. if you are scared of catching it, don't mix with the public.


couldn't agree more Rexy but trust me you are wasting yr breath on some in here, they are locked in to the fear and nothing will sway them!-) I'm not vaxed never will be and that drive some crazy, I love it, still waiting to die, according to them! -)

[43Inches]

I don't follow your economic modelling. However, I did not say let it rip. I believe the politics of COVID elimination will be devastating by next year. Eventually some of us will have to die. Hopefully, vaccinations protect most. But this path is not sustainable, not for the economy, not for social cohesion, not for dealing with emerging security threats.

No doubt, but that's why I said i believe that that will all change in a few more months as the vaccine rate hits targets. Remembering that from when you start getting vaccinated it's a minimum of 6 -8 weeks before you are fully protected, that's assuming Pfizer, Az being 3 months or so. Its pretty important to get on the way soon if that's what you want.

I'm not vaxed never will be and that drive some crazy, I love it, still waiting to die, according to them!

If you want to be Macho about it and wrestle with the virus with your pure unadulterated immune system, go for it. It just sounds like challenging the gods to a duel for no reason other than an authority complex. I'm sure the virus will appreciate the easy ride, if it had that ability, to appreciate that is.

[Xeptu]

couldn't agree more Rexy but trust me you are wasting yr breath on some in here, they are locked in to the fear and nothing will sway them!-) I'm not vaxed never will be and that drive some crazy, I love it, still waiting to die, according to them! -)

I actually admire your decision, not judging either way, your one of those we need to stay in touch with to see how that goes long term.

[43Inches]

The only further point I'd cover is that statement probably just null and voided any loss of medical insurance you have, so not necessarily smart to let it be known public if you are covered by a policy. Same as suicide clauses you wont be covered for anything you could reasonably be expected to have covered yourself against. If you should have issues due to covid.

[S0L0]

couldn't agree more Rexy but trust me you are wasting yr breath on some in here, they are locked in to the fear and nothing will sway them!-) I'm not vaxed never will be and that drive some crazy, I love it, still waiting to die, according to them! -)
I’m not allowed to post links but do a quick search of anti vaxxers who have died from COVID.
Good luck champ!

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43in If you want to be Macho about it and wrestle with the virus with your pure unadulterated immune system, go for it. It just sounds like challenging the gods to a duel for no reason other than an authority complex. I'm sure the virus will appreciate the easy ride, if it had that ability, to appreciate that is

Did you miss my post re VACCINATED people still transmit the virus.

As far as scared, you should be if you are not vaccinated, if you are then you have no reason to fear it.

But vaccinated people are still catching it and dying - so I guessed you are stuffed. I heard Gladys say that a gentleman died yesterday in Sydney - fully vaccinated.

MachTuck - I will have a beer with you - no vaccination passport required.

[43Inches]

Did you miss my post re VACCINATED people still transmit the virus.

I think you have missed that the point of mass vaccinations is to reduce the symptoms and rates of death in individuals. Vaccinated people with breakthrough cases have more than 90% less rate of death or severe symptoms. Reduced symptoms like coughing and such would also reduce the spread relative to someone coughing all over the place.

Once enough of the population is vaccinated the country can open, people will still get sick, but they will not die and far less will require hospital/medical services. That will happen towards the end of the year. After that I'm pretty sure empathy for unvaccinated will go out the window and economics will prevail.

Not quite sure why people thinking it still spreads while you are vaccinated means it don't work. Same as the flu vaccine its there to reduce effects, not stop it. However some individuals may even be protected enough to claim full immunity from it.

Just look at the UK, massive case rates, very low death and hospitalisation rates. Not ideal to have large cases, as it allows for mutation, but as long as the death and hospitalisation rates state way down like they are, things will open.

[SHVC]

I heard Gladys say that a gentleman died yesterday in Sydney - fully vaccinated.


That’s true, don’t let the facts ruin the story tho.
there was a 90yr old
there was a 40yr old that was already in palliative care
the was a 70 yr old with pre existing medical conditions all three the only fully vaccinated to die in NSW.

[43Inches]

The only further point I'd cover is that statement probably just null and voided any loss of medical insurance you have, so not necessarily smart to let it be known public if you are covered by a policy. Same as suicide clauses you wont be covered for anything you could reasonably be expected to have covered yourself against. If you should have issues due to covid.
What a load of rubbish...AGAIN!

Um, I don't think you've ever read the fine print on your insurance policy. You are one funny character, sounds like you don't like me and just have to say something that isn't particularly intelligent just to amuse me.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-insurance-premiums/

Here's one way the US system may be covering for unvaccinated employees.

In the US where some states are mandating you can't force employees to vaccinate the health insurers are responding that premiums will rise for unvaccinated due to elevated risk. It will either follow here, or further that they just exclude those that don't vaccinate.

[Taggert]

If anyone thinks for a minute that the individual state's won't lockdown after the target of 70/80% is reached, then you are delusional. Why would they risk voter backlash? Andrews has already said he will if he has to.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

This is from the England Public Health weekly Technical Briefings - the integrity of their data is probably the best out there (or at least the best that is written in English). The English govt updates this every week. Amazing data really.

Here is the link to their Technical Briefing #20 which covers everything to do with Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths from Feb 1, 2021 – August 2, 2021.

You can see the data on this link: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf

They cover all the variants, but these days, nearly everything is all Delta. You can see this on page 20.

If you go to page 18, you can see data for Cases, People who attended Emergency but did not get hospitalised, Hospitalisations and Deaths. Take a look through it.

Where you see the word “Unlinked” – this means that they are not sure if it is Delta or a different variant. Either way they could not determine the genome sequencing.

Where you see the word “Inclusions”, this means that that the patient presented for another reason, but by chance, upon testing, also had Covid. So they have included these cases in the figures.

Where you see “Exclusions”, this means that they have excluded cases where Covid was not the reason of going to the hospital.

Anyway here are the results; and through laziness, I have counted “Vaccinated” are those who have had at least 1 shot; but the data separates out 1 shot and double shot if you want to drill down.

Total Delta Cases Vaccinated Unvaccinated

300,010. 117,115 147,612

Delta Hospitalisations Vaccinated Unvaccinated

3,030 1,249. 1,738

Delta Deaths Vaccinated Unvaccinated

742. 481 253

Fascinating numbers. Either way, deaths are super low. But I think it would surprise most to see current Vaccinated deaths are nearly twice of the unvaccinated. And also that those vaccinated deaths are coming from slightly less cases and slightly less hospitalizations

Conclusions: Well the death rate last year for the Alpha strain was much higher. The Delta strain is more contagious but less deadly. And likely the Vaccine is more effective against Alpha than with Delta, because it was designed for Alpha OR maybe the vaccines are waning. Boosters designed for Delta are likely on the way but by the time they come, Delta may no longer be the dominant strain.

So 43inches - There is some data for you. You may have a tad misplaced faith in the vaccines. Delta is winning the war. Vaccinations passports - Useless/pointless.

[43Inches]

No misplaced faith at all, spent a number of days last week talking to actual doctors in a hospital. They pretty much all agreed the data from around the world is unanimous in that the vaccines reduce deaths and hospitalisations from Covid in as much as 97%. If the data you presented is accurate it goes directly against what health care professionals are being informed. BTW they were all 100% vaccinated some with AZ. Doctors and nurses, many with stories of friends with long covid from last years episode.

I'm, mostly fighting to get people to vaccinate because I've seen and talked to medical staff who are just frustrated with the crap circulating on this, basically trying to help them out, as they are the ones on the front line that cop it when it gets out of control. That and the others that actually argue with them while they are dieing of covid that covid doesn't exist. The ****e you see people do in hospitals just goes beyond belief, when all the staff are doing is trying to help.

So 43inches - There is some data for you. You may have a tad misplaced faith in the vaccines. Delta is winning the war. Vaccinations passports - Useless/pointless.

I just read the document, you have either been intentionally mischievous or not understood it properly.

The Delta Death vs Vaccintated or Unvaccinated has to be done vs age group.

SO in the over 50 bracket. The total that received two doses and died was 389 of 21,472 cases, 1.8%, 1131 needed overnight hospitalisation 5.3%. The total Unvaxed death rate was 205 of 3440 cases, 6%, 670 hospitalised overnight, 20%.

Those figures show about 75% reduction in severity of outcomes for the vaccinated, that's still pretty compelling evidence vaccinations are doing what they should.

One thing that really stands out is that under 50, 4 times more infections were among unvaccinated than vaccinated. Thats why your total figures came to a skewed answer, only 20,000 under 50 vaccinated had the virus, vs 147,000 unvaccinated with virus. So if you grouped them with the over 50s it would give you a flawed death rate. Fact is it shows that as well as slowing symptoms it is actually infecting less vaccinated persons. Connsidering the majority of the UK is now vaccinated to have such one sided figures means there is some complete immunity happening at a high rate.

[machtuk]

This thread is more entertaining than Question time in the kindergarten they call Parliment house! -)
You couldn't dream this sh1t up for a fiction novel if ya tried! -)


Rexy we won't live long enuf to have a beer mate, by all accounts we should be dead by now and a few will be very disappointed if we don't! -) -)

[43Inches]

If anyone thinks for a minute that the individual state's won't lockdown after the target of 70/80% is reached, then you are delusional. Why would they risk voter backlash? Andrews has already said he will if he has to.

They would have to have a damn good reason to lockdown without voter backlash if we did reach targets and not "unlock". I think you would face too much civil disobedience for them to go that route even if they wanted to. Once you promise something you need to deliver or you will get the flick.

[unexplained blip]

Vaccinations passports might be a little pointless only if you think that the purpose is to indicate that said person won't catch it nor won't transit it. Quite useful if you think the purpose is to (i) save them from themselves ie make sure they have taken some basic precautions (ii) not displace an ICU bed from a cancer or trauma patient, if and when they return home needing hospitalization (iii) not transmit COVID to some poor immuno-suppressed bugger in hospital when they drag their unvaxxed asre home and have to share a ward.

I have not heard anyone half-sensible say/write something other than once we are at 70% to 80% vaxxed then the unvaxxed can basically get shafted and mother nature can pick off the weak ones. Even so-called Chairman Dan said stuff to this effect about six weeks ago. Right now however we have a huge slice of the population that have not had prior opportunity.

It is perfectly clear that there is a significant % of case fatality in Aus amongst not particularly vulnerable pax not lucky enough to secure a vax, and that nowhere in the world has any authority managed to keep COVID in a simmer state. You either crush it, let it rip, or sit hopelessly in purgatory like NSW. Happy happy simmer state does not exist. Welcome Glady and friends to the reality, truly sorry for 5m people or so in Sydney that lost a full six weeks before it clicked.

Just get to 70% and 80% vax and then social and political pressure will deal with the rest. We're all sick of this and the vaxxed will not tolerate 2022 being restricted whatsoever. First hand experience says that certainly that is more or less where the CoA thinking is at in Aus at the present time, and probably from here on in.

So stop bashing 43 and DD from boredom; we're not at a point where let-it-rip is yet wise, but it is coming and it will happen. Until then it will all be sh*t.

[Paragraph377]

43 inches truly lives in eternal fear of catching the dreaded China virus. It’s so funny because you 43 inches being a triple vaccinated, 5 x mask wearing, face shield wearing, hand sanitizer strapped to the waste belt, locked in a basement with its own oxygen supply person will likely catch it anyway!!!

[neville_nobody]

If anyone thinks for a minute that the individual state's won't lockdown after the target of 70/80% is reached, then you are delusional. Why would they risk voter backlash? Andrews has already said he will if he has to.

If that holds true there won't be an airline industry in this country anymore. Noone is going to last another year of the current insanity.

It's illegal but all three airlines should just collude and go to the government with a date on which they will close the doors if the borders don't fully open without restriction.

[43Inches]

I think there's some social lotion flowing tonight....

Not sure what the point of those videos were, one is Kary Mullis saying PCR can detect anything you want, that's true, you can find just about anything if you look hard enough. The other is Fauci talking about what minimum viral loads detected by PCR are required to deem a patient no longer infectious and able to go back to home or a nursing home, they both seem wildly out of context. Is this supposed to link to something?

[43Inches]

I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.

[Paragraph377]

I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.43 inches from the Virgin 3.1 thread;

“Because I do get out there and do things I have almost died from a bacteria far worse than Covid. That being said, your understanding of statistics is lacking, you don't catch heart disease or cancer, these things are genetic dispositions or some exposure to things that cause them, ie bad diet for heart disease or long term exposure to smoking for cancer. The 1% we discuss with Covid is your chance of dieing from it now, not what your possible eventual cause of death will be. Things that give you 1/100 chance of a heart attack or cancer immediately or quickly resulting in your death are heavily regulated for the safety of the stupid. This is why electricians do your house wiring and strict regulations of food or who can operate machinery etc. Some idiot who does not wish to quarantine can just walk past sneeze on me and I now have Covid and a 1 in 100 chance of dieing from it within a few weeks. Here's a contentious thought, a study on suicide attempts found only 1.5% of attempts using cuts or drugs resulted in death, so people that actually try to kill themselves using medical means are only slightly more likely to die of it than Covid infection”.

You are truly one of those paranoid delusional people who go through life fearing germs and anything else even remotely scary. I can’t even imagine the hoops you put Mrs 43 inches through each time she leaves the house and then comes back inside - full body ultra violet scan, stand under a heated shower for 25 minutes and scrub with hospital grade anti bacterial soap, remove all clothes and place in plastic bag to be sent through an autoclave, exterior of the house protected by a fully enclosed bubble with security measures similar to accessing the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

43, either get a life or move to Antartica or to an abandoned Queensland farm on 300,000 hectares where you will be safe from everything except falling meteorites (which could also contain micro organisms). Stop using your comfort blanket of trying to convince everyone to acquiesce to your level of paranoia in the hope that by doing so it will help to protect you from getting the virus.

[unexplained blip]

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1 percent fatality rate is still a lot. 1 in 1e+5 or 1e+6 is different and generally thought tolerable. Vax means 1e+5 or so. That's all that matters, rest is just noise.

[43Inches]

I sincerely hope you are drunk or maybe just joking, you come across a little unhinged there mr 377.
I will say it one more time though, Im vaccinated and have no fear of the virus at all.

Im asking the more sane reasonable ones out there to get vaccinated so we can open up and get back to Aviating.

If you are reading some sort of fear into my posts you have some wild imagination happening.

[unexplained blip]

I do understand why people are lashing out but it is not very rational. Govts need to keep COVID out because they have no effective means of suppressing it other than keeping people stationary and indoors. Personally I can't see Vic doing more than a two weeks in a row without lockdowns between now and November. Aviation is stuffed until then. Lifestyle ditto. COVID has us by the b**ls, soz but that's the bottom line.

[unexplained blip]

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive. That is pre-delta and at day 4-6 of infection; ramps up prior and down after. Worry about the false negative rate, not the other way. Really bewildering why test accuracy has not improved in 18 months. As already stated, false negative is the key issue.

Rapid antigen are less than 80% true pos, but actually do better on part of the shoulder period to PCR max, and are cheap and quick. Should be being used a lot more in Aus. Are being used in some situations, a bit below the radar, e.g. certain progressive logistics and food processing coys.

As above, false neg is the main concern.

Edit: that alt-guardian site (or whatever it is) is total QAnon crazy land, but article kind of latching on to a truth, in a weirdarse sort of way
PPS. that https://off-guardian.org site accepted my first few couple of reasoned posts kind of, then they won't show any more. Wonder why the AI is out to get me? Cookies, IP addresses and conspiracies? Didn't like being challenged by an actual technologist/scientist? Maybe they are actually psuedo-news, tin-foil hatters, propagandists... you choose!!!

[unexplained blip]

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1225x721/pcr_60b92fafdd064f6a0c7b96b1f4a1c4015af16523.png

[SHVC]

Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, I’m on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.

[Foxxster]

Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, I’m on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.


yes and I noticed that they didn’t close the real estate loophole that Byron man used. So you can still leave Sydney to go and view a property.

and we get the statewide lockdown announcement only hours after the daily media conference and it was done by Twitter and Facebook. Staggering.

[Foxxster]

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1225x721/pcr_60b92fafdd064f6a0c7b96b1f4a1c4015af16523.png


Might as well flip a coin, utterly pointless. Unless you have at least 95% then forget it.

[SHVC]

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

[Foxxster]

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

and how are they going to enforce it. I have just decided to make the most of high prices in Sydney and sell up. Think I might move to Coffs. Might just arrange a viewing of a property next weekend. Take the family up for a few days. Prove me wrong.

as for what should be open and closed completely agree. And we are at week 8 now. And they should have been a lot tougher on enforcing the rules but we all know why that didn’t happen don’t we. Given the area in south west Sydney where the non compliance was rampant.

[lineupandwait]

This is the time to rip of the Covid band aid - I’m quite happy we are having the out break and it’s time to learn to live with it. Any at risk has had many many months to get vaccinated - if you are not at risk but personally scared of Covid get AZ. NSW will be ahead with living with Covid and opening up once and for all - no more lockdowns!

[Foxxster]

Victoria 25 new cases today.

[SHVC]

Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

[Foxxster]

Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

my property scenario was hypothetical only.

as for the us, bit of a worry they are still having any restrictions. They are way ahead of us in vaccination rates. And I would hazard an educated guess and say anyone now unvaccinated has chosen not to be. They need to just open up.

[lineupandwait]

my property scenario was hypothetical only.

as for the us, bit of a worry they are still having any restrictions. They are way ahead of us in vaccination rates. And I would hazard an educated guess and say anyone now unvaccinated has chosen not to be. They need to just open up.

They’re open - the first 4min of this is all you need to see:

https://youtu.be/KbSkMfs_tH4

[43Inches]

USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

This is the problem with the high case numbers, I'm not sure how much avoidance is mandated rules or just population scared to gather. The latter is definitely on the minds of friends I have over there especially with the high rate of children being infected, and some of those getting very sick, although thankfully not dieing. And I will use the words getting sick as they are not just testing positive, some are having very severe symptoms leading to lack of eating and drinking for several days and needing medical intervention.

The reason I'm seeing in some states for the rapid spread is that anti vax sentiment also spreads in pockets like the virus itself, so certain towns have very high proportion of unvaccinated, despite the whole country having a generally high rate. This then means when it gets loose in those populations it spreads rapidly among them. You don't get the fire break in the chain in those areas that having 2 of 3 vaccinated offers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-15/low-vaccine-rates-in-missouri-lets-delta-coronavirus-rip/100361880


https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/fears-escalate-after-high-numbers-of-children-contract-covid19-in-the-us/video/92df2a576713daa659c3b378d9774c5b

Just for information my view is not based on either of those news reports but on what I've heard from friends over there. The news is just covering a similar topic.

[dr dre]

The reason I'm seeing in some states for the rapid spread is that anti vax sentiment also spreads in pockets like the virus itself, so certain towns have very high proportion of unvaccinated, despite the whole country having a generally high rate. This then means when it gets loose in those populations it spreads rapidly among them.

Yeah, I think by the time Australia’s vaccination is mostly completed (whenever that is) there’ll be a comparatively even uptake of vaccines. In the US there’s certain areas (seemingly ones that support the former President (https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/unvaccinated-americans-whiter-more-republican-vaccinated)) that are much higher in their vaccine refusal rates (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/04/23/here-are-the-states-with-the-greatest-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-poll-says/?sh=602b48223ead), up to a 20% difference. This is with the vaccine uptake rates beginning to slow down so it there’ll be certain pockets that have a large number of unvaccinated.

In Australia there’s some differences in state rates now, about 10%, but I’d expect as the rollout is still a work in progress and more Pfizer and Moderna now coming online in the last quarter of the year it should be a relatively even distribution across the country once we all the time above 70/80%. It should prevent Covid becoming a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” here.

[SHVC]

McGowen on Sky News AM agenda today has said despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state. “His state” he owns you all he thinks.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1225x721/pcr_60b92fafdd064f6a0c7b96b1f4a1c4015af16523.png
Or they could just be catching during quarantine from other travellers.....

[Chronic Snoozer]

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

People standing around drinking coffee in front of the cafe is hardly Gladys' fault. Get your coffee and go, practice social distancing while in the line. What is so hard about that? Does the government need to hold everybody's hand? We need to quit blaming the government for practically everything and follow the advice. It appears we are in the situation we're in not because of lack of leadership but good old Aussie larrikinism taken too far.

Pre-vaccine childhood (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/15/no-concept-of-how-awful-it-was-the-forgotten-world-of-pre-vaccine-childhood-in-australia)

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." Churchill

[KRviator]

McGowen on Sky News AM agenda today has said despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state. “His state” he owns you all he thinks. Here's the story... (https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/mark-mcgowan-keen-to-pursue-a-zero-covid-policy-in-wa-even-after-80pc-vaccine-threshold-is-achieved/news-story/74b441d105fb4f65715ad931a59fc0d1)
The WA Premier told Sky News that, despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state."We retain the right to put in place border [restrictions], that's understood, but some of the measures we put in place might ease, once we reach that level of vaccination. "I'm looking forward to getting over 80 per cent, apparently no country in the world has got there yet."No wonder theyre stuffed over there. "No one has got to 80%" yet...Iceland is at 86.3% fully vaccinated...Asked if he would retain a hard border to New South Wales for an indeterminate period if that state never got to zero COVID cases, Mr McGowan said: "We retain that right, obviously I'd prefer not to".

"My own mother and father and my brother live in NSW and personally I'd love to be able to see them and I know there's many thousands of people in that position... and other people want to go to NSW on holidays or business or whatever it might be... but the best answer I can give to that is for the foreseeable future, probably until the end of the year, we'll have to have a strong border in place with NSW because we can't run the risk of it infiltrating into Western Australia.

"... When they get down to zero or minimal spread, then we can look forward to opening the border."

On the concept of zero COVID and whether it would be sustainable for years into the future, Mr McGowan said: "When people say it's impossible and the like, people have a short memory out there. Victoria went through hell last year... and did what it took. There's a template for you."There it is folks. "Zero or minimal spread". With Delta, even in a fully vaccinated population that is not going to happen. Consider Iceland or the UK as an example and look at their numbers. The UK, 29,500 cases, 100 deaths with 89.3% / 76.3% vaccinated. Iceland 92.9% / 86.3% and they're still getting around 100 new cases a day - against a population of only 357,000. If we use the same rate for Australia, that's 7,400 Delta cases a day with 86% of our population fully vaccinated! The equivalent UK rate for our population would be 11,000 cases a day.

McGowan's got rocks in his head if he thinks there's going to be "zero or minimal spread" with this Delta strain, even if we got to 90% vaccinated.

[AerialPerspective]

Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

The outbreaks also seem to be in the most 'Trumpian' areas with the most anti-vaccine trend. What a surprise that the 'good ol' sou-eth' is where a lot of the problem is.

[43Inches]

Oh is that so.

So what are the symptoms that are unique to COVID-19?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../symptoms.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html)

Pretty simple actually, if you are treating someone for severe symptoms you would have to get around to diagnosing a cause.

The UK has two separate distinctions for classifying covid deaths. "due to covid" which is where the virus was the underlying cause of symptoms and death, and "involving covid" where the patient was covid "positive", but the underlying cause of death was determined to be of other cause. As stated before, you could be determined covid positive. Which might mean you are just carrying some dead covid cells, ok I get that. But to be classified as having died due to covid it has to be relevant to symptoms and virus patterns, and determined by a medical professional.

Now that being said it would answer why the death rate has appeared to drop. If the threshold for testing positive was too low, you would get skewed data due to being positive and dieing from covid are measured in different ways.

To put it in simple terms, the CFR % is the deaths divided by cases. If the cases were over stated, then the CFR would indicate lower than actual. ie 1000 test positive vs 100 dead, 10% CFR. If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed "infected" the real CFR is closer to 20%. Don't also confuse asymptomatic with non infected. Asymptomatic just means you are not displaying symptoms, but your body could be still fighting the infection within. Where as non infected would mean you are killing all virus cells that enter before they can replicate at any significant rate, both you could detect virus cells within the body.

BTW, to avoid any suggestion of conspiracy here; If a doctor was to deceivingly diagnose you with covid, you were treated for that, and later it comes out you died from flu, well, there would be a lot of law suits happening. I can't see doctors en-masse agreeing to waste their medical credentials and livelihood on pushing some weird government agender.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

From Chant at today's useless brief -

But chief health officer Kerry Chant warned vaccination alone was "not a silver bullet".

"There is no silver bullet and vaccination is not a silver bullet — it is a tool," she said.

"Vaccination alone will not get us out of this situation.


So - what else will will get you out of this situation ?

[43Inches]

Another flawed analogy.

What is flawed about it? I'm starting to think you may lack some cognitive ability, in you only state one line retorts when your conspiracy rubbish gets disproven.

Also I didn't use any analogy.

The reference to CFR was a simple example without using real world data, It was in no way an Analogy.

I really get the feeling you are way out of your depth in this conversation.

[43Inches]

Yeah, I lack cognitive ability, I'm a conspiracy theorist, I'm way out of depth, I need to see a doctor etc etc.

Thanks again for proving my point.

You are welcome, I think.

Was the point that you need a break and maybe lay off the alchohol?

You should think about taking a holiday somewhere nice, you know, get away from it all! If your fully vaxxed, maybe try WA? Tell me how that goes.

No need, been on part time holiday and now stand down holiday for over a year. Now I want some work, so....

GO GET VACCINATED, so we can all get back to it.

PS, I'm going for a walk, write me some noice one line retorts for me to play with when i return.

[SHVC]

Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.

[43Inches]

Yeah I need a break , I need to lay of the alcohol, your a farce.

I need a break from you.

Come now, you can do better! I barely got to know what you stand for, apart from running yourself down and very bad english.

I mean really I have read all your stuff, and my main issue is I have no idea what you are trying to say. Your retorts are confusing and make no sense. I'm trying to understand you but it's just not working, you post a lot of vids but no explanation of how they tie to the subject matter. When I tried to link what the vids showed and actual data you claim there's some flawed analogy, which again I'm unsure what analogy I used. And you keep referring to the word farce, I mean its comical in itself, but hardly insulting. The fact you don't answer direct questions generally infers you have little knowledge on the subject matter. So please enlighten us with what you know.

[Xeptu]

Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.

I agree with you, I think most of us have resigned ourselves to the fact we are not going anywhere in the next two years and have already made other plans. It'll take another year to respond once we can go somewhere. I think QLD will be the tourism hotspot domestically, if we can call it that for foreseeable future provided they keep it under control.

[43Inches]

For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.

[Xeptu]

For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.

I don't think Bali exists does it, certainly not as we knew it, most of the hotels have been gutted right down to the tapware.

[SOPS]

Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.

Im not commenting on whether this is right or wrong.. just stating what was said.

Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders……..

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/nsw-in-full-lockdown-as-defence-help-grows-c-3684935

[43Inches]

So, If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed 'infected', wouldn't that 100 'dead' number you used as an analogy, drop to maybe like 1 death (analogy) actual infection from the virus itself? Or you still using the false positive in your equation>?

An analogy is when you compare two disimilar things, like "Life is like a Box of Chocolates etc etc"

My figures were a simple equation of the same principle.

The explanation is thus; The false positive you are referring to, as explained in the videos is only for testing. Amount of dead within the same group will not change as the measuring stick for deciding if a death was due to Covid involves far more indicators than just the PCR test.

I'd have to dig them up again but the Mortality Figures published by the UK go more into detail about actual features of a Covid infection, such as clots in the lung, heart issues and brain issues associated with the virus.

So the only variable would be the case numbers, with little variance in the death toll. If the PCR test is set too sensitive, too many will present positive, therefore basic deaths vs cases will seem low. The opposite will occur is PCR test is not sensitive enough, fatality rate would seem high, less cases to more deaths.

I mean the answer would be incident rate use, but since covid seems to be reinfecting it may be a hard one to quantify. Also still requires a large expensive study to even get baseline figures for how many are infected.


A good example of flawed covid stats. Fiji right now;Fong said as announced on 21 July, only people that had a higher risk of developing severe Covid-19 were being tested in Suva-Nausori.

"This was done so that resources could be targeted to early detection, monitoring and care of persons with Covid-19, who are at higher risk of severe disease, to prevent more people succumbing to severe disease and death," Dr Fong said in an epidemic outlook of the pandemic in the country.

"We are likely seeing the effect of this testing policy change now in Suva-Nausori with the drop in daily reported cases.


The Fijians have stopped testing all of the population and only testing vulnerable people in the Central District. So the case rate looks like its dropped off, when in fact there's just no data.

I also worry that a lot may be dead at home and not found yet, it's pretty bad over there.

[unexplained blip]

and also Unexplained Blip, I couldn't find a memo from WHO worried about the False Negatives.

As Lockdowns are based on case numbers, the problem really is .False Positives

False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that line up with other cheese holes, and start outbreaks which put us into restrictions and lockdowns. False positives change percentages a little bit, and give the spectators something to argue about.

[43Inches]

As the video sort of explained a while back the PCR test can pick up anything, it's really not a false positive, the test picked up covid. The critical question as the Fauci Vid questions is how much Covid then makes one infectious, this is something that has been debated a bit. Generally it's not just how much but live/dead and where it's located. Live virus found in the respiratory system makes one definitely more contagious than dead virus in your intestine.

Re using Case numbers for lockdowns, there is really no other way. There is nothing else we know of that's fast enough to stay ahead of the virus, even then using case numbers is lagging it seems.

[Xeptu]

"Yes correct, over 99% recover- FACT

Define recover, I think you mean 99% survive death. 66% recover, the 33% have Long Covid, those stats are pre vaccine. We don't know yet what the effect if any on the pre vaccinated infected ones are yet, but so far it's looking good.

[43Inches]

Fiji would have been a good example of actual fatality rates, as it seems we are going to see a country that will rapidly close in on 100% full infection. Unfortunately the Government there and the health system are already blaming people for not going to hospital as the reason for deaths. Its a government that tends to cover its own backside and "adjust" figures if they were to get out of control.

The change in testing methodology and such means we will just lack the data to gain anything meaningful from it.

[common cents]

Dont worry 43, please add more to the list, im running myself down and have very bad english.
Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2021/nejm_2021.384.issue-15/nejmoa2101765/20210410/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.

[43Inches]

I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.

One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard

I don't think they have even read each others posts.

Keep going my court jesters,

I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.

[common cents]

I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.

One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard

I don't think they have even read each others posts.

Keep going my court jesters,

I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.

Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches?
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.

[43Inches]

Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches?
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.

I mean seriously all the others have to do is read your assumptions, I don't need to insult you, you do it to yourself. :E

[common cents]

I mean seriously all the others have to do is read your assumptions, I don't need to insult you, you do it to yourself. :E

Come on mate! You can do better than that.

[43Inches]

I mean what is your overall purpose here?

My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.

Are you an Anti-vaxxer is that the point?

I could go to the trouble of explaining why and how your data yet again is flawed, but I'm pretty sure all and sundry are aware of that by now, so I'll leave it short.

[common cents]

I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.

[43Inches]

I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.

One thing I don't do is bore you to tears, I'm under your skin so bad it's like a Covid itch that you cant get rid of. You wouldn't be responding and targeting me so vehemently if it was any other case. I do appreciate the love and attention though.

[common cents]

One thing I don't do is bore you to tears, I'm under your skin so bad it's like a Covid itch that you cant get rid of. You wouldn't be responding and targeting me so vehemently if it was any other case. I do appreciate the love and attention though.
Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?

[DirectAnywhere]

If the egotists could possibly stop bickering for a minute.

Im not commenting on whether this is right or wrong.. just stating what was said.

Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders……..

If this is true, the four phase plan is already dead and this industry is royally f&*ked, so are tourism operators across the country. It's hard not to despair about the future when WA (and VIC today) are stating that NSW isn't complying with Phase A. That provides those states with the wriggle room necessary to say that they won't comply with Phase B, C and D.

If borders are going to stay closed at 80% vaccination in pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy we might as well all pack up now and sell the aeroplanes for coke cans because that's all they're useful for. Morrison has no authority or power. His political capital is at an all time low and the premiers are demanding COVID-zero as the policy going forward. Can anyone else see a way out of this that ends well for aviation, because I'm really struggling to at the moment?

[43Inches]

Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?

If you rather me wear my Napoleon hat while you infuriate over there, why not, whatever floats your boat. It was more a delusion of minuscule though as I was analogous to Covid.

[Paragraph377]

I mean what is your overall purpose here?
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.

Now that is so funny. You spend 24/7 on this thread because you believe it’s your calling to sway others to vaccinate so that you can go back to work! Here’s the thing 43mm, vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying your DC8 freighter any time soon. The one thing that you are putting your trust in is not something that is guaranteed to work in the long run. Tsk tsk tsk.

[common cents]

Napoleon hat?
Isn’t that what short guys with an inferiority complex wear?
You trying to tell me something?

[43Inches]

Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.

[KRviator]

The one thing that you are putting your trust in is not something that is guaranteed to work in the long run. Tsk tsk tsk.I don't think we're putting our trust in vaccinations per se', rather, the Government - every single one of those ****ers across the nation - is saying "Get vaccinated, or you're screwed". Not in as many words, but by their actions, and continued kow-towing to the "health advice" commentary.

We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...

McGowan has already all but admitted he won't reopen the border no matter what the vaccination rate is nationwide, so, short of assassinating 7 Premiers (well, 6, I'll give the NT Chief Minister a pass, they've been fairly level-headed throughout), or staging a military coup, I don't see any alternative.

That being said, I do think this thing will evolve, hopefully to something like the flu, with annual vaccines, however, there's also a distinct possibility of it going the other way. My only hope in that case, is it strikes Parliament House first....

[43Inches]

We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...

Spot on,

Whatever your thoughts on pro/not vax. The nation will burst open in the coming months once those targets are met. The faster we get there the less it will send whats left of aviation and tourism broke.

Add to that as a pilot/airline worker you probably won't have a choice anyway, so better to just get it done.

[Chris2303]

vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying

At last - somebody else who understands!

There is also a probability that another virus, not a mutation of COVID19, will make itself known in the medium term

[MickG0105]

Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2021/nejm_2021.384.issue-15/nejmoa2101765/20210410/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.

Here's the abstract for the paper the you've taken that graphic from.

BACKGROUNDAs mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.
METHODSAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.
RESULTSEach study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.
CONCLUSIONSThis study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.
BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer.

The authors of that study (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2101765) (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.

[43Inches]

The authors of that study (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2101765) (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.

Which is pretty close to those figures from England we discussed earlier.

[Paragraph377]

Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.
I’m not interested in responding to you with a ‘witty retort’. And your response is a classic. You still believe the 80% line in the sand BS being promulgated by governments that couldn’t run a lemonade stand. I still recall the Morrison government and other governments saying;
- 65% vaccination and the borders will open. Now they are saying 70-80%.
- I recall the Governments saying that once 80% is achieved then the borders will open. Now some of them are saying it is not a guarantee.
- I recall CMO’s saying school aged students are not a risk and are exempt from vaccines. Yet most of the time schools have stayed closed for long periods and now they are talking about younger ones getting vaccinated.
- I recall the government saying that if you are immunised you will basically be able to move about freely. Nope, that hasn’t happened. In fact now they are saying that regardless of your vaccine status they may and will continue to close borders and enact lockdowns.

You see, the narrative changes constantly depending on what internal polling the political parties are doing, and what those results are. These muppets have no idea how to handle this pandemic. And they cannot guarantee all those ‘wonderful freedoms’ even if everyone is vaccinated. They are full of **** and jumping around from an hour to hour.

43mm, we are all over this COVID ****. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner.

[common cents]

Here's the abstract for the paper the you've taken that graphic from.

BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer.

The authors of that study (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2101765) (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.

No argument from me. I acknowledge that the vaccines have an effect. I am vaccinated. The percentages are Relative Risk Reductions. All I attempted to demonstrate was firstly the real world nature of the problem ie: IFR and secondly the absolute benefit of vaccination.
The data is perfect for an extrapolation of the true nature of the problem as it yields an IFR figure of 0.38%. The effect of vaccine is to reduce the IFR down to 0.14%.
Yes vaccines work.
But in my view we need to stop this infatuation with case numbers as all we are seeing there is the top of the pyramid. The extrapolations I’ve made from real data potentially show the whole pyramid. Respectfully, the damage we are causing with lockdowns is not commensurate with the real problem.

[43Inches]

43mm, we are all over this COVID ****. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner.

I'll hold you to those beers and will buy a few more rounds after, but do work on those retorts. Beers are definitely more enjoyable with some banter, just nothing Covid related please, once this ****e is over I think anyone that mentions covid should just be shot.

Oh and if anyone tries to launch another wave of whatever by summer, I'm creating a time machine and cleaning up some messes with extreme force.

[Paragraph377]

I'll hold you to those beers and will buy a few more rounds after, but do work on those retorts. Beers are definitely more enjoyable with some banter, just nothing Covid related please, once this ****e is over I think anyone that mentions covid should just be shot.
Finally something we both agree on 👍

[MickG0105]

No argument from me. I acknowledge that the vaccines have an effect. I am vaccinated. The percentages are Relative Risk Reductions. All I attempted to demonstrate was firstly the real world nature of the problem ie: IFR and secondly the absolute benefit of vaccination.
The data is perfect for an extrapolation of the true nature of the problem as it yields an IFR figure of 0.38%. The effect of vaccine is to reduce the IFR down to 0.14%.
Yes vaccines work.
But in my view we need to stop this infatuation with case numbers as all we are seeing there is the top of the pyramid. The extrapolations I’ve made from real data potentially show the whole pyramid. Respectfully, the damage we are causing with lockdowns is not commensurate with the real problem.
By my geometry, cases would be the bottom of the pyramid but yes, I don't disagree with the premise. The focus should be on hospitalisations and ICU admissions.

Of course that gross fatality rate is for a sample aged 16 - over 80, what the study doesn't show is deaths broken out by age group. You would expect to see a markedly different set of numbers for the 70+ cohort.

If you want to get a real world understanding of the impact of the vaccines, look at the ICU admissions (severe illness). Based on that study the difference between a vaccinated population and an unvaccinated one in Israel (population ~ 9 million) is about 1,800 ICU admissions (you'd need about 4,000 ICU nurses to service that).

[43Inches]

Of course that gross fatality rate is for a sample aged 16 - over 80, what the study doesn't show is deaths broken out by age group. You would expect to see a markedly different set of numbers for the 70+ cohort.

Even just splitting into 50+ and under is enough to see a huge different set of data.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf

That document has a good data set in Table 5. But you must only compare within an age group, or you get weird outcomes.

[common cents]

“Of course that gross fatality rate is for a sample aged 16 - over 80, what the study doesn't show is deaths broken out by age group. You would expect to see a markedly different set of numbers for the 70+ cohort.”

Agreed. Conversely the numbers for younger people would go in the opposite direction. Thereby bringing into question the need to vaccinate and expose this cohort to added risks.
The idea of protecting the elderly and clinically vulnerable is something we should have embraced from the beginning.
The absolutism that we are attempting now is without merit.

[machtuk]

I'm just checking in here to say " hey I'm still here you bastards" (Steve McQueen, Papillon) ................ unvaxed.....sorry:ok:

[MickG0105]

“Of course that gross fatality rate is for a sample aged 16 - over 80, what the study doesn't show is deaths broken out by age group. You would expect to see a markedly different set of numbers for the 70+ cohort.”

Agreed. Conversely the numbers for younger people would go in the opposite direction. Thereby bringing into question the need to vaccinate and expose this cohort to added risks.
The idea of protecting the elderly and clinically vulnerable is something we should have embraced from the beginning.
The absolutism that we are attempting now is without merit.
Your focus when it comes to any disease is generally on the most vulnerable group. Nobody really gives two hoots about whooping cough or RSV in adults, and nobody uses the whole population to determine the critical case fatality rate for those diseases.

And you vaccinate outside of the most vulnerable cohort for a couple of reasons.

One, to try to manage the incidence rate. That is of interest to you in order to mitigate the likelihood of exposing the vulnerable, vaccinated or not.

Two, because it is never a great idea to have large vaccinated and unvaccinated populations co-existing when a disease is pandemic. Doing so creates a reservoir for the development of mutations.

[43Inches]

The issue I have with that study, if you are using to prove covid is somewhat deadly or not.

Out of the 1.2million odd participants, only 10,500 were confirmed as contracting covid.

The outcomes are measured in Cumulative Index, which is the number of occurances relative to the total population. Not incidences relative to infected population.

Since no information is supplied as to how at risk or exposed to covid the whole cohort are there is no baseline for infection rate. The infected 6100 UnVax and 4460 Vaxed, does not reflect how susceptible they were to covid, or exposure.

The IFR for this group is close to 0.5% UnVaxed and 0.2% Vaxed.

The mistake you made is Adding up the already "cummulative" figures for you're stats.

This study is purely to prove viability of a vaccination, not to prove anything to do directly with Covid.

[common cents]

[QUOTE=MickG0105;11095309]Your focus when it comes to any disease is generally on the most vulnerable group. Nobody really gives two hoots about whooping cough or RSV in adults, and nobody uses the whole population to determine the critical case fatality rate for those diseases.

And you vaccinate outside of the most vulnerable cohort for a couple of reasons.

One, to try to manage the incidence rate. That is of interest to you in order to mitigate the likelihood of exposing the vulnerable, vaccinated or not.

Two, because it is never a great idea to have large vaccinated and unvaccinated populations co-existing when a disease is pandemic. Doing so creates a reservoir for the development of mutations.[/QUOTE

Valid points in theory. In practice however, consider the exponential rise in the significant numbers of infections in places like Israel Iceland Canada with such high vaccination numbers. I put to you that the reservoir for the development of mutations will exist even after vaccination. The Israelis are currently reporting a Relative Risk Reduction of 39% in transmissions hence their 3rd shot booster initiative.
On your first premise, the viral loads in vaccinated infected individuals are as high as non vaccinated. It is generally accepted by experts that transmission will continue as is evidenced by real world statistics.Therefore any success with an attempt to mitigate the likelihood of exposing the vulnerable through these particular vaccines is doubtful at best. Don’t misunderstand me for I comprehend the need to mitigate and I accept the moral undertones of your points. What I won’t accept is exercises in futility.
As I have stated previously. We need to gain a clearer picture of the real nature of this problem and the real absolute protections from these vaccines.
The numbers from those graphs don’t lie. 4.9% infection rate reduced to 3.8% after vaccine. 0.38% IFR reduced to 0.14% after vaccine.
These are the real numbers. Yes they show effectiveness. Enough to stop thousands of deaths probably not. Introducing added risks to younger people through the use of vaccines would be appear to offer little to no protection for the vulnerable so why do it. Waiting on high vaccination numbers before ending lockdowns will yield questionable improvements in outcome. Measurable but insignificant when you compare the damage both on a human and economic level that lockdowns are causing.
So vaccinating has now moved away from sensible medical intervention and has become a political trigger to end lockdowns.
Silly don’t you think?

[Lead Balloon]

The issue I have with that study, if you are using to prove covid is somewhat deadly or not.

Out of the 1.2million odd participants, only 10,500 were confirmed as contracting covid.

The outcomes are measured in Cumulative Index, which is the number of occurances relative to the total population. Not incidences relative to infected population.

Since no information is supplied as to how at risk or exposed to covid the whole cohort are there is no baseline for infection rate. The infected 6100 UnVax and 4460 Vaxed, does not reflect how susceptible they were to covid, or exposure.

The IFR for this group is close to 0.5% UnVaxed and 0.2% Vaxed.

The mistake you made is Adding up the already "cummulative" figures for you're stats.

This study is purely to prove viability of a vaccination, not to prove anything to do directly with Covid.
Oopps. The work experience kid has been left to run the 43Inches login this evening.

[43Inches]

The numbers from those graphs don’t lie. 4.9% infection rate reduced to 3.8% after vaccine. 0.38% IFR reduced to 0.14% after vaccine.

Where do you get these numbers from?

In your original post you mentioned figures of;

Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.

In the study notes it says only 10,561 were infected in total. From what I can see you added up the already cumulative numbers. If you add the 6100 and 4460 you get the 10,560 as mentioned.

This makes all your other numbers way out.

Since all subjects received testing you could safely assume the IFR a calculation of 32/6100, 0.52% for the unvaxed and 9/4460, 0.2% for vaxed.

The infection rate for the entire cohort was 10.500/1,200,000, 0.8%. Which proves nothing as the cohort does not come from the same locations rather all over Israel. There is no evidence of how many were exposed to covid and how many were affected by other factors such as self isolation procedures etc.

All that is proven is that for number of infections the vaccinated did far better than unvaccinated in surviving.

BTW, do you know what the "At Risk" numbers are about?

[Lead Balloon]

Looks like one of the adults is back in charge of the 43Inches login...

[43Inches]

Looks like one of the adults is back in charge of the 43Inches login...

More trying to use phone while watching TV vs at PC desk.

[Lead Balloon]

This is a national emergency, 43Inches! Tantamount to a war (but don't use that language in the presence of Mick, who wants to pretend the nationhood power of the Commonwealth, along with the other far-reaching powers of the Commonwealth, does not give Scotty from Marketing the power to control and run the response to C-19).

Surely you shouldn't be diverting your attention to trivia like watching TV.

[43Inches]

YAS SAH!

Back to my station.

I really don't know, or even dread to think what SloMo would do if he took the power upon himself, there would be power but also, responsibility. No more sitting back and blaming Dan for his woes. I picture his current thought process kinda like Bilbo and the ring.

And Mr Potato heads cranium might actually explode with glee at the thought of that power.

[MickG0105]

Your focus when it comes to any disease is generally on the most vulnerable group. Nobody really gives two hoots about whooping cough or RSV in adults, and nobody uses the whole population to determine the critical case fatality rate for those diseases.

And you vaccinate outside of the most vulnerable cohort for a couple of reasons.

One, to try to manage the incidence rate. That is of interest to you in order to mitigate the likelihood of exposing the vulnerable, vaccinated or not.

Two, because it is never a great idea to have large vaccinated and unvaccinated populations co-existing when a disease is pandemic. Doing so creates a reservoir for the development of mutations.

Valid points in theory. In practice however, consider the exponential rise in the significant numbers of infections in places like Israel Iceland Canada with such high vaccination numbers. I put to you that the reservoir for the development of mutations will exist even after vaccination. The Israelis are currently reporting a Relative Risk Reduction of 39% in transmissions hence their 3rd shot booster initiative.
On your first premise, the viral loads in vaccinated infected individuals are as high as non vaccinated. It is generally accepted by experts that transmission will continue as is evidenced by real world statistics.Therefore any success with an attempt to mitigate the likelihood of exposing the vulnerable through these particular vaccines is doubtful at best. Don’t misunderstand me for I comprehend the need to mitigate and I accept the moral undertones of your points. What I won’t accept is exercises in futility.
As I have stated previously. We need to gain a clearer picture of the real nature of this problem and the real absolute protections from these vaccines.
The numbers from those graphs don’t lie. 4.9% infection rate reduced to 3.8% after vaccine. 0.38% IFR reduced to 0.14% after vaccine.
These are the real numbers. Yes they show effectiveness. Enough to stop thousands of deaths probably not. Introducing added risks to younger people through the use of vaccines would be appear to offer little to no protection for the vulnerable so why do it. Waiting on high vaccination numbers before ending lockdowns will yield questionable improvements in outcome. Measurable but insignificant when you compare the damage both on a human and economic level that lockdowns are causing.
So vaccinating has now moved away from sensible medical intervention and has become a political trigger to end lockdowns.
Silly don’t you think?
If you want to gain a clearer picture with real world data then maybe a study from six months ago isn't the best source. If you want up-to-date real world data, the Israelis maintain an excellent COVID-19 dashboard that is updated every 8 hours.

This latest surge in infections that they are seeing, at least 50 percent of the cases are coming from less than 20 percent of the population; the unvaccinated. And of those active cases progressing to serious illness, that is, requiring an ICU admission, over 70 percent of those are unvaccinated.

​​​​​​In terms of actual deaths, the Israeli's have seen the Case Fatality Rate drop from its pre-vaccine peak of 0.09 percent to currently 0.024 percent. For the Israelis that's a difference of 350 deaths a week. Translated to our population, that's the worst part of 1,000 deaths a week.

But you do you. Everyone has clearly differing views.

[gerry111]

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go!
These days, they're all purchased as investment properties! Owner occupied ones are simply for dodging capital gains tax..

[Cirressna]

Hang up the wings, zero is here to stay.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-crisis-a-risk-to-hopes-of-opening-up-the-nation-20210814-p58iqs.html

Australia’s plan to reopen and move beyond lockdowns this year will be in jeopardy unless NSW drives COVID-19 case numbers close to zero as well as hitting a vaccination target of 70 per cent of the adult population.Experts predict Victoria and other states could return to a COVID-normal situation if vaccination targets were reached and case numbers remained low, but NSW would be shut out by the rest of the country.


If Australia did open up at 70 per cent adult vaccination with daily cases in the hundreds, as they were in NSW on Saturday, modelling from the Doherty Institute suggests 385,000 coronavirus cases and almost 1500 deaths could occur in six months.

To avoid thousands of cases a day, states and territories – including Victoria – would be required to continue using border closures and lockdowns even after hitting 80 per cent vaccination.

They had us for a moment there.

[SHVC]

The premiers are drunk on power. We will never have our freedoms back like in 2019. Get used to it, if you were able to leave Australia now is a pretty good time to. It will be a mad max world here this time next yr.

[MickG0105]

...
But now, against the Australian Constitution (now this is important), my medical history will have to be disclosed after they introduce the Vaccine Passport, nationwide.
...
Which section of the Australian Constitution do you think would be contravened?

[compressor stall]

Which section of the Australian Constitution do you think would be contravened?.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/593x438/1830c468_40b1_4365_baf2_ca6e728b4c56_a51c5fe420ffa7439377f77 78643bd52b9122762.jpeg

[layman]

As had been said several times before, vaccination passports aren’t new.

I came across my old vaccination record the other week (passport sized pale yellow booklet): smallpox, cholera, yellow fever, typhoid, and another I’ve forgotten.

Had to show this before you could gain entry to many other countries. Not vaccinated = no entry.

Not a medical record; just vaccinations.

[KRviator]

Hang up the wings, zero is here to stay.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-crisis-a-risk-to-hopes-of-opening-up-the-nation-20210814-p58iqs.htmlIf Australia did open up at 70 per cent adult vaccination with daily cases in the hundreds, as they were in NSW on Saturday, modelling from the Doherty Institute suggests 385,000 coronavirus cases and almost 1500 deaths could occur in six months.They had us for a moment there.Holy snappin' duckshyte! 1,500 deaths in 6 months? That's like, what? 3,000 deaths a year?

That's less than half of that caused by voluntary tobacco smoking, according to the ABS and Cancer Council. Guess they'd better ban the durries, now, too!

Ciressna is right though. No Premier, except Gladys most likely, is going to accept a thousand cases a day in a 70-80% vaccinated population. The Democratic Peoples Republic of Westralia, Af-Danistan and Queen-P's-Land have all pinned their re-election campaigns on the "But only I can keep (kept) you safe!" mantra. They - particularly McGoose - will never tolerate such case numbers, even if every man, woman and child in the Country is double-vaccinated against Covid.

As I referred to previously, look at a country like Iceland, that is significantly vaccinated and extrapolate their case percentages to our population, and see what you get. Do the same for the UK and the numbers aren't that different. Around 7000 (Iceland) - 10,000 (UK) cases per day in a vaccinated population.

As of today, the UK has 89.4% of their adult population with one jab, 76.7% have had two, and they're racked up 26,750 cases, and (only) 61 deaths (Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)). Our population is ~38% of the UK's so, there's 10,000 cases right there. And 25 deaths.

Iceland - a global leader in vaccination has 64 new cases (Source (https://www.covid.is/data)), with our population being 7422% of theirs, so 4,700 new cases with their 14 day average being 396.2, or for our population, 7,500 a day...

Israel, by all reports one of the first countries to introduce the nationwide vaccine is around 78% of eligible people double-vaccinated (Source (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-vaccine-data-how-many-have-already-been-inoculated-for-covid-1.9626604)), yet even they racked up 4,100 new cases on Saturday (Source (https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-covid-cases-pass-500-for-1st-time-since-march-as-outbreak-surges/)) against a population of 9.0M (34% of ours), so an Australian-equivalent 12,000 cases / day!

Covid-Zero? We've got no hope, nor does any other country, but so long as we have state leaders - and their lapdog CHO's pushing a Covid-Zero agenda - Australia as a nation has got stuff-all chance of an internal reopening, no matter what our vaccination numbers are.

And then, what's the outcome of that? Indefinite lockout of NSW? Temporary lockout of Victoria? Permanent G2G passes so the DPRW knows who's coming and going, and where you will stay while in the DPRW and (of course) being able to track you via their G2GNow app, that they now mandate you must use?

Which section of the Australian Constitution do you think would be contravened?I'm not sure it'll be introduced nationwide, but in the event some states require you to have it, but your home state does not, then s.117 would apply, as was found by Stephen.J in Henry v Boehm and covered in the Street judgement, which is currently the litmus test for s.117 cases. The reason s.117 would apply is simple, because (for example) if WA required all incoming travelers (but not citizens travelling within WA) to have a Vaccine Passport, the "disability or discrimination" would not be equally applicable as the WA resident was already in that other state. Being WA.

[Paragraph377]

Most importantly our Politicians, senior bureaucrats and CMO’s all have their jobs still. In fact, no job keeper for them as they have had 2 pay rises in 18 months. Heck, most get to avoid hotel quarantine and move about rather freely. Funny thing that. I mean, they are such important people (in their own eyes).

I think Australia’s population will (barely) tolerate this lockdown **** until Scotty’s magical 80% vaccination figure is reached. After that, well who knows. Hopefully millions will descend upon each politicians home and demand their freedom that way.

[43Inches]

Yeah 1500 deaths sounds like the high end anyway, once vaccination reaches 75%+ combined with Australias sparse population outside the city centers it will not spread like it is in those countries. I will definitely "call bollocks" to any suggestion lockdowns are necessary after that. The sad thing is we could have hit the targets by now, or kept the virus out with some simple smart measures. Sydney is as overrun by covid as Kabul is with Taliban.... It's just band-aids on shotgun wounds until the vax target is met.

Sydneys death rate is already way down on last year and compared to Melbourne. One simple reason the vulnerable and older are mostly vaccinated and isolated, with better protocols to keep them safe.

[Ninthace]

.

As of today, the UK has 89.4% of their adult population with one jab, 76.7% have had two, and they're racked up 26,750 cases, and (only) 61 deaths (Source (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)). Our population is ~38% of the UK's so, there's 10,000 cases right there. And 25 deaths.

It is weekend in the UK. We don’t die as much at weekends, it is a reporting thing. UK death rate is 635 a week and rising gently.

[43Inches]

It is weekend in the UK. We don’t die as much at weekends, it is a reporting thing. UK daily death rate is over 100 a day and rising gently.

I'd be interested to know if the daily death rates are "due covid" or "with covid". Because now that the virus is so wide spread the chance of dieing "with covid" is much higher but the virus is not the underlying cause of death. This is a genuine question, as it directly relates to how deadly the actual virus is, and I don't know how the UK reports deaths in the mainstream. The monthly mortality figures definitely make the distinction, but they are analysed before release a month or two after.

PS after checking some reporting websites the realtime data is based on whether a person had tested positive within 28 days before or had covid listed on the death certificate. Both in no way are an effective method of determining whether covid actually caused the death. The mortality stats will definitely be very important here to understand what is happening. In past instances without vaccinations Covid on the death cert was about 20-30% higher instances than Covid as the underlying cause of death. For those confused by it, the Death certificate will list the main cause of death, plus anything else that "may" have contributed, covid will be listed if infected, but not determined to be the cause. These numbers are then put in a database using a digitised medical code with no explanation. J128/U071 is died from Pneumonia/cause Covid.

[Xeptu]

Most importantly our Politicians, senior bureaucrats and CMO’s all have their jobs still. In fact, no job keeper for them as they have had 2 pay rises in 18 months. Heck, most get to avoid hotel quarantine and move about rather freely. Funny thing that. I mean, they are such important people (in their own eyes).

I think Australia’s population will (barely) tolerate this lockdown **** until Scotty’s magical 80% vaccination figure is reached. After that, well who knows. Hopefully millions will descend upon each politicians home and demand their freedom that way.

Or we could do it the traditional way and have an Election

[Gnadenburg]

I think this will go beyond partisan politics in the months ahead when vaccinations rates high and citizens still losing their livelihoods and freedoms. Vietnam-era Moratorium marches come to mind. Significantly bigger as this bureaucratic and governance train wreck continues with a disease that once vaccinated, younger generations will accept as being largely non-fatal to them.

[Xeptu]

Is it too soon for a Shaun Micallef comedy sketch ripping off the world leaders arguing over who's not doing their fair share in this population cull target.

[Turnleft080]

Not confirmed, ruthless Dan considering an all Melbourne curfew, just listening to 3aw. Whatever it takes to squash 20 nagging cases. More to come in the presser I guess.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

As had been said several times before, vaccination passports aren’t new.

I came across my old vaccination record the other week (passport sized pale yellow booklet): smallpox, cholera, yellow fever, typhoid, and another I’ve forgotten.

Had to show this before you could gain entry to many other countries. Not vaccinated = no entry.

Not a medical record; just vaccinations.

Yeah the difference is you have a CHOICE if you want to go to a country that has those vaccination requirements and you don't want to get vaccinated. It is not the same as if you need to buy groceries, or fly domestically. A vaccination passport in the domestic sense will see riots and protests.

Speaking of riots and protests - I haven't seen any riots or protests in the UK with groups chanting "END THE FREEDOMS - BRING BACK THE LOCKDOWNS" .....

[StudentInDebt]

Not confirmed, ruthless Dan considering an all Melbourne curfew, just listening to 3aw. Whatever it takes to squash 20 nagging cases. More to come in the presser I guess.Judging unscientifically by my tram ride home from work yesterday (anecdotes are not data), there is a significant minority who are not complying with the spirit of the rules in Victoria. Not doing at 20 cases per day does not seem to have worked out well for NSW.

[43Inches]

No one is being forced to vaccinate. There will come a time that you will have problems of access to places and jobs without appropriate vaccination. This is entirely legal, like mandating safety equipment or already as vaccinations required for day care attendance etc. Things that are required by basic rights will not be able to restrict, such as access to basic health care (hospitals). But a shop/doctor/airline/library/restaurant etc etc... could place requirements to be vaccinated to enter.

https://business.gov.au/people/customers/refuse-service

Right of refusal of service is acceptable for safety grounds, and also comfort of other clients. You could refuse entry to someone that is physically offensive in odour.

[43Inches]

Yes I agree the chance for discrimination increases with any restrictive process. So vaccine passports, well who knows, there's also the worry that these "passports" turn into "national ID" cards. Something the Coalition has been pushing on for a while, which starts to encroach on police state technology. In the US the actual amount of restriction from businesses is low, it really serves no purpose other than block a member of the community from buying your product.

Most people and businesses would already not want anyone obviously sick on the premises and they would be asked to leave or barred entry.

[Foxxster]

ACT 19 cases yesterday so things are taking off there. Lockdown extended another two weeks until early Sept.


As for any talk of lockdowns after reaching 80% vaccinated, pure irresponsible idiocy. WA premier talking of it and by the sounds of it the NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant. And it sounds like the NSW premier agrees. Where is the leadership.

[compressor stall]

Vaccine passports...

So again we have Scomo showing national leadership. Open to a vaccination passport "but has to be done by the states."

No wonder we are a continent of 8 countries.

And mandating vaccines for employers. Oh, it will be a "reasonableness test". Gee that will give confidence to an employer to have a decision in the best interests of their business knowing that they might lose their house if an employee sues and wins.


and Darwin and Katherine now locking down.

[43Inches]

As has been said earlier, he could take the reins, but oh the responsibility.

He really is showing he should be in opposition with Albo, who is even worse at saying anything that might resemble a policy or stance. "oh the states and businesses can handle that", when it goes pear shaped I can blame them and earn brownie points. If it works I can claim I set that up.

I remember a few months back, " oh the poor citizens of the states, locked away, they should be open like NSW with gold standard contact tracing". Now "The only way out of this is swift hard lockdowns...."

[SOPS]

Melbourne going into night time curfew for 2 weeks……All borders to reopen.. forget it!

[Turnleft080]

ACT 19 cases yesterday so things are taking off there. Lockdown extended another two weeks until early Sept.


As for any talk of lockdowns after reaching 80% vaccinated, pure irresponsible idiocy. WA premier talking of it and by the sounds of it the NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant. And it sounds like the NSW premier agrees. Where is the leadership.
If we get to 80% and they decide to still lockdown, then it will be total anarchy to the point of storming parliament. Us, the public can do no more. Our duty has been done. Our freedom is 100% deserved. I'm sounding like Maximus.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

UNBELIEVABLE - GLADYS just reported on 7 deaths and she said regrettably 1 15 year old and was going to leave it to Chant to give the details

From the ABC just now - Six of the deaths were aged in their 70s and 80s and one was in their 40s in what was the highest number of daily fatalities NSW has recorded since the pandemic began.

A 15-year-old boy who contracted pneumococcal meningitis and COVID-19 also died but Sydney's Children Hospital confirmed the virus was not the cause of Osama Subuh's death. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-16/boy-15-years-old-dies-with-covid-19-osama-subuh/100379396) YET GLADYS REPORTED IT !!!!!! This is getting beyond a joke.

43In - You will have litigation from here to eternity if you mandate vaccinations. No one is being forced to vaccinate. There will come a time that you will have problems of access to places and jobs without appropriate vaccination

Can you see the stupidity in your statement? If there are ramifications for not getting vaccinated - then you are being FORCED.

It is like the religious concept of God giving you "free will". The dogma goes like this from apologists - "You don't have to accept Jesus - God gave you free will - but you you don't accept Jesus when you die you will go to HELL and be tortured"

[43Inches]

My opinion, and I reckon a vast majority of Australians is that once that 80% is reached we have given everyone enough chance to mull the stats, understand whats going on and those left have decided to be that way. I'm quite happy that once vaccinated your chance of dieing of this thing is back to flu levels so even 70% we should be considering normal ops and back to business. If WA is still thinking lockdowns after that, its stupid, and makes no sense, time to call Chopper back from the dead and push that state TF out of here.

Can you see the stupidity in your statement? If there are ramifications for not getting vaccinated - then you are being FORCED.

You obviously don't have kids, and don't understand the meaning of the word forced. As right now you can't send your kids to many day care without proof of vaccination. There may be those that provide for unvaccinated kids, but that will be your choice. This ain't about if my statement is stupid or not, its reality and how things already are. You want to fly on my plane and have a medical condition, better have a docs certificate or you don't. Just my companies rules. It's very easy to cite safety rules as flying with the flu or any communicable disease is already considered a no go condition.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43In It's very easy to cite safety rules as flying with the flu or any communicable disease is already considered a no go condition.

Why can't you see the difference here - IF YOU ARE VACCINATED YOU MAY STILL GET THE FLU OR COVID. Your statement above - if you have flu or any communicable disease is already considered a no go condition - SO DOES THAT MEAN I HAVE TO SHOW YOU A FLU VACCINATION PROOF BEFORE I GET ON YOUR PLANE? Are you getting it yet?

[MickG0105]

https://constitutionwatch.com.au/3955-2/

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2020/March/COVID-19_Biosecurity_Emergency_Declaration?fbclid=IwAR3qAZ5Z3Mvxk0 _AV8untr5mT7w6SG05YyKv-MX3SX0lsk10BDI4Yj0XAqo

The Constitution Watch article quite specifically deals with 'the subject matter of “Forced Vaccinations”' - it's right there in the title,
'A Summary of section 51(xxiiiA) of the Constitution and related case law surrounding the subject matter of “Forced Vaccinations”'

Returning to your original statement,

But now, against the Australian Constitution (now this is important), my medical history will have to be disclosed after they introduce the Vaccine Passport, nationwide.

How does a somewhat nebulous article that purports to address forced vaccinations relate to a Vaccine Passport?

And thanks for the link to an explanation of the Biosecurity (Human Biosecurity Emergency) (Human Coronavirus with Pandemic Potential) Declaration 2020.

How is that even vaguely germane to the contention that having to disclose your medical history is "against the Australian Constitution"?

[SHVC]

80% is still no guarantee there will be no lockdowns and borders closure. Elimination is what’s wanted among the premiers (McGowan confirmed WA position on Sunday) in all states except NSW where Gladys has given up on elimination and going for higher vaccination 50% allowed some restriction eased 60% and so on. NSW residents will not be allowed to leave this state for a considerable amount of time, maybe NSW could set up international travel again when 80% is reached for us only and rest of the country can have their own bubble among them self. I would prefer to spend my money in another country than in QLD anyways.

PM was speaking this morning when asked about McGowen position he had nothing to offer other than going back to Poland’s generosity in giving extra Pfizer.

[Turnleft080]

Melbourne going into night time curfew for 2 weeks……All borders to reopen.. forget it!
Totally superfluous. Everyone is home anyway between 9pm-5am with a 5 km radius. Just another I will obey you master moment. Because of the pub crawl and the party in Nth Caulfield 4 million will now be punished.

[LapSap]

80% is still no guarantee there will be no lockdowns and borders closure. Elimination is what’s wanted among the premiers (McGowan confirmed WA position on Sunday) in all states except NSW where Gladys has given up on elimination and going for higher vaccination 50% allowed some restriction eased 60% and so on. NSW residents will not be allowed to leave this state for a considerable amount of time, maybe NSW could set up international travel again when 80% is reached for us only and rest of the country can have their own bubble among them self. I would prefer to spend my money in another country than in QLD anyways.

PM was speaking this morning when asked about McGowen position he had nothing to offer other than going back to Poland’s generosity in giving extra Pfizer.

Strange that of all the things 160,000 of us every day on average around the world are allowed to die of, some premiers have decided this one is not permitted a single 1.

[layman]

I think you missed the point of my statement.

https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021B00078

The link is to a bill proposed by Craig Kelly. I'd be somewhat surprised if this was to become law.

[Turnleft080]

Since we are following the maths, science, and models ( all that fantastic public health stuff ) then may I bring in a proportion. If NSW recorded 156,495 tests : 478 positives then that leaves 8,009,505 non-tests : 24,464 possible positives. So mathematically their could be 24,464 positives cases that have not been tested. If true, they may not know they have it. Why? They are all healthy. So why are the hospitals not saturated and all ICU beds maxed out. I state my case your honour. Open the borders now, with masks, sanitiser and most of the elderly are now vaccinated.

[43Inches]

Why can't you see the difference here - IF YOU ARE VACCINATED YOU MAY STILL GET THE FLU OR COVID. Your statement above - if you have flu or any communicable disease is already considered a no go condition - SO DOES THAT MEAN I HAVE TO SHOW YOU A FLU VACCINATION PROOF BEFORE I GET ON YOUR PLANE? Are you getting it yet?

Entirely not my decision, that's something you take up with who operates the plane, the airline policy. Not sure what you don't get about that. I've never said I agree with doing any of this, it is how things currently operate and may get worse. As for new work, a company can exclude you because of no HSC certificate, no vaccine is way easier to prove you are at increased threat of lower productivity due to sick leave. You wont even get the chance to argue it, you just wont make it through the application process if you fail to provide a vaccine certificate and its one of the criteria.

Requiring existing workers to vaccinate and maintain vaccination is another matter, SPC Ardmona has already done this, with unanimous support from the workforce apparently. It's pretty easy to push non compliant workers out for other reasons and then mandate all new workers do it. If you've ever worked in low paid work, especially casual you'd know the way they deal with problem workers is just give them reducing hours until they decide to leave for themselves, then just keep the hire cycle going. If you were ever wound down to zero (or close to) hours while others worked more, you should understand they didn't like you for whatever reason and didn't want to bother through the process of officially firing you. Is this all nice and legal, probably not, and that's why there is law suits occasionally, but its rare and they get away with it most times.Democracy – a casualty of the pandemicI have a major issue with the headline. I havn't seen any democratic countries turn to dictatorships during the pandemic yet. The pollies are still doing what they were elected to do and will have to face re-election in the near future.

If the general concensus of the population is that they want vaccine passports and restrict those not vaccinated. That is democracy in action. As a business being able to choose entirely who it serves and who it does not (vaccinated or not) is a pure capitalist ideal, the individual business owner can choose entirely how they operate, that would include basic discrimination. Socialism would force the business to serve the masses, as that would be best for the community.

I think the correct term would be sacrificing basic rights as a casualty of the pandemic.

[compressor stall]

Well, we'll all know sooner or later. Clive is going to test it in the high court it seems re WA's plans to have the jab to enter.

But isn't Anna doing same? Will he challenge her?

[Paragraph377]

Democracy my ass. Facebook and Google data collection, our current government COVID apps, big brother watching, hidden speed cameras, the introduction of thousands of new laws per year with none of the old ones repealed and the stripping of union powers - these muppets have been stripping our democracy for the past 80 years.

[43Inches]

Democracy my ass. Facebook and Google data collection, our current government COVID apps, big brother watching, hidden speed cameras, the introduction of thousands of new laws per year with none of the old ones repealed and the stripping of union powers - these muppets have been stripping our democracy for the past 80 years.

Nothing to do with democracy apart from all those muppets being elected. When people in general realise its not a football match that picking liberal or labor or greens is not a competition, but actually alters the direction of policy, then maybe things will change. When people vote cause, Kennet was too arogant, or Kirner was too fat and female or Abbot seemed to not like women. Then that's the failure of democracy.

Learn to educate yourself in politics, pick the team that favours your own point of view, in reality, not via slogans. And kick the ones that don't perform.

[Foxxster]

Strange that of all the things 160,000 of us every day on average around the world are allowed to die of, some premiers have decided this one is not permitted a single 1.



gladys saying as long as we have delta, or presumably any other similar variant, even at 80% vaccinated we will still have restrictions.

hey Gladys. You can F*CK RIGHT OFF WITH THAT. Grow a pair and be a F*CKING leader and an adult. People will die from it. Get used to it. Stop your bull****.

[43Inches]

Most politicians are nothing but puppets to big corp. The ones that have any balls get shot down quickly.

Because they know the plebs just barrack for Labor or Liberal with very little swinging, virtually no political education. Business on the other hand knows exactly how important who's in power is to your bottom line and how they can operate.

You want them to listen to the people, then you need the masses to actually care at an election and swing with the actual policies.

I used to be staunch anti labor, why, hate for what happened in '89. I've gotten over that and realised that the Coalition has done just as much damage in the 90s with privatisation of airports and airservices than the strike cost. I realised the Egos that cost in '89 are gone, but the policies that have driven GA to oblivion are still pursued.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43In -Entirely not my decision, that's something you take up with who operates the plane, the airline policy. Not sure what you don't get about that.

Mate, I'm sorry, it is you that is not getting what I am saying.
Ok I'll try and put it another way.
Forget about covid -
Currently you claim - that with your company - If you have the Flu - you are not permitted to fly. Is that true? I believe it, ie if you present with a fever etc then you may not be permitted to travel. BUT your company, does not, and have never asked, upon check in to show proof that the passenger has had a Flu Vaccination.
DO YOU SEE WHAT I AM SAYING.

[43Inches]

Currently you claim - that with your company - If you have the Flu - you are not permitted to fly. Is that true? I believe it, ie if you present with a fever etc then you may not be permitted to travel. BUT your company, does not, and have never asked, upon check in to show proof that the passenger has had a Flu Vaccination.
DO YOU SEE WHAT I AM SAYING.

Yes I know, what I'm saying is in the future I have no say in what direction they go in. They might require a vaccine passport, nothing I can do about that. France has mandated it for train travel, so the likelihood increases as other similar nations adopt it. How it would be practical or ethical or within human rights, I will have no say in that.

[43Inches]

So if I have HIV, am I still allowed to go to bars and procure sex, or do I get locked down with police knocking on my door with stay home orders because im infected.


If you sleep with a partner without telling them you are HIV positive, you can be jailed. So yes you can go to bars etc and procure whatever and you must disclose any diseases that could infect them that you are aware of. HIV is only transmitted via blood etc. You can not walk past someone and infect them.

A partner can actually sue you if they can prove you knowingly slept with them knowing you had an STDs. Same way you can be fined or sued for spitting on someone as its known to spread disease of just about anything.

The idea of lockdowns and isolation is to limit the spread opportunity for easily communicable diseases that can transmit easily to unwilling participants.

[43Inches]

You are welcome!

[Lead Balloon]

Because they know the plebs just barrack for Labor or Liberal with very little swinging, virtually no political education. Business on the other hand knows exactly how important who's in power is to your bottom line and how they can operate.

You want them to listen to the people, then you need the masses to actually care at an election and swing with the actual policies.

I used to be staunch anti labor, why, hate for what happened in '89. I've gotten over that and realised that the Coalition has done just as much damage in the 90s with privatisation of airports and airservices than the strike cost. I realised the Egos that cost in '89 are gone, but the policies that have driven GA to oblivion are still pursued.
Precisely!

[Scooter Rassmussin]

As the Vaccine does not stop transmission and the states want COVID Zero , then it cannot happen , people will still get sick and die from Covid , smaller numbers maybe but they cannot achieve what they are after .
Once everyone has the chance to be vaccinated then it’s a personal risk to go without , it’s not going to stop the pandemic.
Please change the thread name to All Borders never to open please !
pS can’t someone get rid of the Dick Smith ads please !

[Paragraph377]

I used to be staunch anti labor, why, hate for what happened in '89. I've gotten over that and realised that the Coalition has done just as much damage in the 90s with privatisation of airports and airservices than the strike cost. I realised the Egos that cost in '89 are gone, but the policies that have driven GA to oblivion are still pursued.

Great comment. I’m really starting to like you old mate. In fact the CASA regulatory reform program commenced in 1988, 1 year prior to the day Australian aviation changed forever in 1989. The ‘program’ was completed I believe ‘last year’ according to bureaucrat Shane Carmody. Half a billion dollars and 32 years later - all done (the ‘success’ of that program is very much debatable) So, if we are to go by the lack of competence displayed by past and present governments, and using aviation as an example, then we may see Mr Morrison and the State government leaders grappling with trying to mitigate COVID for another 32 years, unsuccessfully!!

[Turnleft080]

The Democratic Republic of ShagNasty have just deployed a couple of F35s armed and heading for WA. McGowan rings Scotty I need your help. Sorry mate you have a hard border up I can't do anything. May have given someone a cartoon idea.

[machtuk]

43In

Why can't you see the difference here - IF YOU ARE VACCINATED YOU MAY STILL GET THE FLU OR COVID. Your statement above - if you have flu or any communicable disease is already considered a no go condition - SO DOES THAT MEAN I HAVE TO SHOW YOU A FLU VACCINATION PROOF BEFORE I GET ON YOUR PLANE? Are you getting it yet?

Hey 'Rexy' I see you are still alive there?:-) Funny about that!:-)
I wonder how all the Commy Dan lovers are feeling now in Melb with another 2 weeks & curfew? Still feeling the love are we?:-)
The grubby media & corrupt Govt love stats & numbers, it is entertaining I guess whilst I await to die of this dreadful disease that Dan said if I catch it I will die from it:-):-)

See you at the bar Rexy, in say 2025, if we are lucky:-)

[minigundiplomat]

gladys saying as long as we have delta, or presumably any other similar variant, even at 80% vaccinated we will still have restrictions.

hey Gladys. You can F*CK RIGHT OFF WITH THAT. Grow a pair and be a F*CKING leader and an adult. People will die from it. Get used to it. Stop your bull****.

People die mate. Everyday, for all sorts of reasons, even non-COVID related reasons.

I’m not sure when we lost sight of that.

[Green.Dot]

For those losing hope and losing their sh!t I thought it’s timely to post another up to date graph of our friends in the UK. Point to note- death rates have stabilised and steady even with significant cases numbers.

If you aren’t willing to get vaccinated, your choice, but you are scum to the rest of society.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x879/5fb9c036_43d2_4d16_b28d_774caeeb015e_0f204fe75fe4dca4ec08c0f 5d956eeb8bca84d93.jpeg

[Turnleft080]

Hence Lord's cricket ground full house, plus all the first round of EPL.

[Livinthedream320]

Hey Green Dot
There is a real legal difference in the definition of someone, either willing to get a normal proven vaccination or in this case the covid-19 experimental vaccine.
Those that choose not to participate in clinical trials are not scum.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

GreenDot- If you aren’t willing to get vaccinated, your choice, but you are scum to the rest of society.


If you are vaccinated why do you care about those who are not?

[KRviator]

Because unless "those who are not" account for less than 19.9% of the population, most posters here, probably including yours truly, won't have a job to go back to after Christmas!

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Sorta hoping for GreenDot to respond.

But anyhow KR, - The vaccination numbers mean naught - 70% 80% it doesn't matter - Delta will be here and D will kill people. Hey smoking kills way more people yet the "guvmint" hasn't banned all cigarettes.

[The The]

Hey Green Dot
There is a real legal difference in the definition of someone, either willing to get a normal proven vaccination or in this case the covid-19 experimental vaccine.
Those that choose not to participate in clinical trials are not scum.

Without realising you are participating in the clinical trials - as the control group. Lol!

[43Inches]

Without realising you are participating in the clinical trials - as the control group. Lol!

Gold and so true, all those dead unvaxed are in the same clinical trial. Although the trial stopped about 6 months ago and we just like watching the control group suffer for laughs...Oh no one told them that being vaccinated saves ya, oh well.... It's interesting what the unvaxed in the Israeli study thought about it, were they even told they were in a study?

"Hey Carl, thanks for joining our vaccination study, you've been teamed with Bob who's just like you to see who will die a painful, horribly drawn out, gasping for air death first. Don't worry Carl we worked out whos going to die in the trials, being the vaccinated cohort you wont get much more than a sniffle, Bob on the otherhand..... We just have to let a few more die to prove to the others"

[MickG0105]

I think you missed the point of my statement.

https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021B00078
Missed the point of your statement?! You couldn't have found the point with a scanning electron microscope because you didn't make a statement, you posted two links that were entirely unrelated to your original contention that the introduction of a vaccine passport was against the Australian Constitution.

Now you've tossed another link at the wall, presumably hoping something will stick. Craig Kelly's private member's bill, no less.

The only references to the Australian Constitution in Kelly's bill are to various sub-sections of s 51, the Section dealing with the Federal Parliament's legislative powers. He references s 51(v) postal, telegraphic, telephonic, and other like services; s 51(xiv) insurance, other than State insurance; also State insurance extending beyond the limits of the State concerned; and s 51 (xx) foreign corporations, and trading or financial corporations formed within the limits of the Commonwealth. Care to join the dots on any of that?

Of course, Craig Kelly being Craig Kelly, in Section 3 Definitions, he ensures that the term 'vaccination' includes hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, and vitamin D and zinc.

If you do want to take exception with actions that are 'against the Australian Constitution', then Section 8 of Kelly's bill should give you grounds for concern. That's the part of the bill where Kelly proposes that the Commonwealth override the States' constitutional right to legislate on health matters.

Separately, there's Section 10, Kelly's swag of prohibitions on businesses and voluntary organisations, including to a bizarre level of specificity a 'chess club or knitting group' (but interestingly not a 'bridge club or sewing group'). That Section would prohibit any business, say a private hospital, and any voluntary organisation, say a cancer care group, from restricting entry to their premises to any person who was not vaccinated. That's not troubling at all?

[Chronic Snoozer]

Sorta hoping for GreenDot to respond.

Hey smoking kills way more people yet the "guvmint" hasn't banned all cigarettes.

Smokers have little regard for their own health or those around them who suffer the effects of passive smoking. So I guess your analogy works.

[JJ 789]

Smokers have little regard for their own health or those around them who suffer the effects of passive smoking. So I guess your analogy works.
Chronic Snoozer you sure sound like a real snooze. Who cares if people decide to smoke and may enjoy it? They don't set out to intentionally "ruin" their health. In that case, may as well ban alcohol, junk food, unprotected sex.. You sound like you haven't had the pleasures of any of these things anyway.
As for passive smoking, I'm sure people breathe in a lot worse particles in their daily lives than walking by someone smoking a cigarette outdoors.
​​​​

[Global Aviator]

Australia really is out of control, so sad to watch.

For those worried about being tracked through a vaccine passport, do you use an idevice or android? Everything is linked and tracked unless you opt out which is hard. Do you surf the web? Again tracked and you get hit with adds.

We have all said it, yellow fever, etc on the yellow travel card was the norm, if technology had been around back then then it would have been used. The fear mongering is amazing.

The biggest issue is will 70%, 80% unlock the country? Nope. A leader or a change to what is required needs to happen to make all states/territories work together.

Yes get the vaccination numbers up and let it rip, it is simply the only way out of the lockdown madness. Yes compare to the UK, Europe, the USA, living with Covid is the reality. Covid zero is not. The problem we all have is that we are unified by the fact we work in one of the most effected industries.

[SHVC]

QLD have announced this morning like WA proof that you have had 1 does of a approved vaccine. If QF can’t make us take it without being held liable for any side affects how can states not be held liable for their hard line vaccination request. I’m happy for this by the way it needs to be like this considering ppl are getting their advice from Facebook and Instagram then believing in that. The vaccine should be made available to everyone by yrs end that so want it. Vaccinated ppl then need to have free rain of travel and movement January 1st 2022 and let the unvaccinated stay home locked away for a change.

[Xeptu]

QLD have announced this morning like WA proof that you have had 1 does of a approved vaccine. If QF can’t make us take it without being held liable for any side affects how can states not be held liable for their hard line vaccination request. I’m happy for this by the way it needs to be like this considering ppl are getting their advice from Facebook and Instagram then believing in that. The vaccine should be made available to everyone by yrs end that so want it. Vaccinated ppl then need to have free rain of travel and movement January 1st 2022 and let the unvaccinated stay home locked away for a change.

My best guess! Most of us expect to be vaccinated and at least 80% of us in the first quarter of 2022, that's both doses and time to be deemed effectively protected. I would expect masks and whatever safety procedures to be in place by then. I would expect to see domestic travel to rise progressively to around 60% of precovid capacity and International up to around 40% by end 2023. All that assuming there is no breakout strain that renders the vaccine ineffective and the long term implications of the virus do not effect life expectancy, reproduction or any significant disability. Should any of those things become apparent, vaccinated or not, then I would expect the borders to remain restricted both internally and externally in some significant way.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

SHVC unvaccinated stay home locked away for a change

Why on earth would you say that? Why would the unvaccinated have to stay home locked away? If an unvaccinated person wants to go out into the community, he/she has the right to so, and uses his/her own risk management/protection protocols.

[Lead Balloon]

Yaaabut...

When the unvaccinated end up clogging up all the nation's ICUs, despite the 'risk management/protection protocols' used by the unvaccinated while roaming free, the outcome is that there's no room left for the vaccinated when they have their heart attacks, serious accidents and other medical crises.

[Chronic Snoozer]

SHVC

Why on earth would you say that? Why would the unvaccinated have to stay home locked away? If an unvaccinated person wants to go out into the community, he/she has the right to so, and uses his/her own risk management/protection protocols.

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from you when you feel it's important that others learn from your experience, that you 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

[Foxxster]

My best guess! Most of us expect to be vaccinated and at least 80% of us in the first quarter of 2022, that's both doses and time to be deemed effectively protected. I would expect masks and whatever safety procedures to be in place by then. I would expect to see domestic travel to rise progressively to around 60% of precovid capacity and International up to around 40% by end 2023. All that assuming there is no breakout strain that renders the vaccine ineffective and the long term implications of the virus do not effect life expectancy, reproduction or any significant disability. Should any of those things become apparent, vaccinated or not, then I would expect the borders to remain restricted both internally and externally in some significant way.


I will certainly not be flying anywhere, internationally or domestically while the threat of a lockdown is in place. A lockdown that can take place at any time and go on for an indefinite period. Same for border closures. I will also not be booking any theatre or other tickets or be booking any hotels within a driving distance. And I suspect many will be in the same mindset.

so good luck with your 60% prediction.

[Xeptu]

Yaaabut...

When the unvaccinated end up clogging up all the nation's ICUs, despite the 'risk management/protection protocols' used by the unvaccinated while roaming free, the outcome is that there's no room left for the vaccinated when they have their heart attacks, serious accidents and other medical crises.

About the ICU. I can only make comment for what I know within my own state via those I know in that arena. The covid ICU zone is empty at the this time and is a separated facility from the primary ICU ward. It can cope with about 20 ventilated Covid patients comfortably and can be expanded to 50. In the event a major breakout occurs a separate inflatable facility is erected, usually in a carpark, oval, warehouse or stadium. These are normally managed by the military. All covid patients are then redirected to that facility and the major hospitals provide technical staff. Our state has 3 of them and can accomadate about 200 each. We don't have sufficient staff to care for that many, we would need both military and the other states to assist in the same way we did for Victoria.
On that note, NSW doesn't appear to have learned any of the lessons in VIC, including PPE as observed in the news. The common quote is " what on earth have they been doing in the last 12 months, have they learned nothing"

[Paragraph377]

Yaaabut...

When the unvaccinated end up clogging up all the nation's ICUs, despite the 'risk management/protection protocols' used by the unvaccinated while roaming free, the outcome is that there's no room left for the vaccinated when they have their heart attacks, serious accidents and other medical crises.

But but our hospital systems can cope with a huge outbreak because all state governments have planned for such an emergency, have enough beds in their hospitals to cover such an emergency and have enough medical staff on the payroll to adequately handle such an emergency. It has to be true because from their protected and overstaffed premium office suites our PM and Premiers have told us so. They really have their finger on the pulse so to speak.

[Xeptu]

I will certainly not be flying anywhere, internationally or domestically while the threat of a lockdown is in place. A lockdown that can take place at any time and go on for an indefinite period. Same for border closures. I will also not be booking any theatre or other tickets or be booking any hotels within a driving distance. And I suspect many will be in the same mindset.

so good luck with your 60% prediction.

It's an expectation, not a prediction and it has caveats, but like you I'm not all that confident that those caveats won't come into effect.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from you when you feel it's important that others learn from your experience, that you 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

Chronic Snoozer - TSK TSK TSK - I have NEVER made a single anti Vaccination post. I am, in fact, vaccinated, and currently still flying. I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

[Lead Balloon]

But but our hospital systems can cope with a huge outbreak because all state governments have planned for such an emergency, have enough beds in their hospitals to cover such an emergency and have enough medical staff on the payroll to adequately handle such an emergency. It has to be true because from their protected and overstaffed premium office suites our PM and Premiers have told us so. They really have their finger on the pulse so to speak.
Yep, and Scotty's doubled the capacity of proper quarantine facilities and adjacent medical facilities, to take the pressure off the general hospitals.

And all those new doctors and ICU nurses will be cascading out of our local training institutions, soon.

[43Inches]

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release) (Note- Deaths due to influenza)

I never quite know why they group influenza and pneumonia together. One is a condition and one is a cause. I think the pneumonia from causes other than flu is about 75% of those cases, actual flu as an underlying cause is the much smaller of the two. Then people go on and quote that group as flu deaths when they are not.

[De_flieger]

Regarding hospital systems being over run:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nothing-in-the-budget-for-public-hospitals-under-pressure-20210516-p57se1.html

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release (Note- Deaths due to influenza)

https://covidlive.com.au/report/hospitalised (Note- Total Hospitalised)

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm (Note- Hospital Admissions)

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to show there. Looking at those statistics, with the fairly harsh restrictions and lockdowns that are presently in place, doing substantial economic damage, there is minimal covid transmission in most states, and likewise minimal or zero hospitalisations in those states. Suggesting that purely from a health perspective solely in terms of preventing covid (setting aside the mental health issues and economic costs, which do need to be taken into account in the broader scheme of things) the restrictions and lockdowns are effective. In the states with more covid cases - but still a relatively small proportion of the population - there are more people hospitalised. That's not exactly groundbreaking news.

What do you think of places like Florida, where there are far fewer restrictions and there is much more widespread transmission, measured in the thousands to tens of thousands of cases per day, and at the most recent figures I've seen, approximately 16,000 people hospitalised out of a population roughly 2/3rds that of Australia? Their ICU's are at approx 90% capacity, with roughly 50% of those beds taken up by covid patients, and the capacity is limited by the number of healthcare workers available, not by the number of physical beds or ventilators or equipment present, so it's not a quick process to easily ramp up to deal with large numbers of new patients over any length of time.

[43Inches]

Their ICU's are at approx 90% capacity, with roughly 50% of those beds taken up by covid patients, and the capacity is limited by the number of healthcare workers available, not by the number of physical beds or ventilators or equipment present, so it's not a quick process to easily ramp up to deal with large numbers of new patients over any length of time.

A typical Thursday through to Sunday in a city hospital in Australia pre-covid and the ER and ICU would be on bypass due to case numbers. Hospitals are good here, but they only offer just enough for whats budgeted, covid has opened more beds, but staff wise they can't fill them. I know two local hospitals that have whole wings of beds empty with no staff to service them.

[43Inches]

This is a better site for data on influenza. It has actual numbers relating to the flu, rather than combining pneumonia with it.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm#current

Few reasons flu is down during our covid outbreak, is same way we have kept covid down. Most of our flu comes in from overseas. Then add lockdowns, etc.

[Paragraph377]

Yep, and Scotty's doubled the capacity of proper quarantine facilities and adjacent medical facilities, to take the pressure off the general hospitals.

And all those new doctors and ICU nurses will be cascading out of our local training institutions, soon.

Most reassuring, thank you. I hope our new medico’s are also trained in how to keep up with governments who are like kangaroos on ICE bouncing all over the top paddock. You can always trust a bureaucracy to be 50 paces behind everybody else.

[De_flieger]

SHVC

Why on earth would you say that? Why would the unvaccinated have to stay home locked away? If an unvaccinated person wants to go out into the community, he/she has the right to so, and uses his/her own risk management/protection protocols.

If one person alone makes that decision, it probably won't make any real difference. If any significant number of people all make that same decision, there will be a reservoir of covid circulating among that group being transmitted between themselves and others, mutating as viruses do, into potentially more infectious or harmful forms that are more dangerous or transmissible to the vaccinated - as has already happened with the different variants of covid mutating in India, South America and other places. That puts at risk the vaccinated, the medically unable to be vaccinated or frail, and the unvaccinated alike. So their individual choices impact the broader community. Plenty of people have felt that their own risk management/protection protocols were sufficient, and still died on a ventilator.

[43Inches]

For those averse to reading the flu document in 2019 there were 3000 odd hospitalisations due to flu only 246 were admitted to ICU. During the season 812 were listed as having flu symptomology when they died, ie died "with flu". Just under 300,000 were laboratory tested positive for flu that season, you could safely assume 5-10 times more than that got the sniffles from flu that year.

I don't have the time to fully research it but 2020, 28,000 covid cases laboratory confirmed, with seroprevalence putting actual numbers around 3 x that, so around 90,000 cases and 909 deaths. I'm pretty sure hospitalisations and ICU admittance was way higher proportion than the flu.

The difference mainly is that 2019 the flu did what it wanted, in 2020 Covid was mostly controlled by isolation and lockdown. I assume given the flu distribution you would probably see 300,000 symptomatic cases of covid with unrestricted freedom and no vacination in the same year if it was let loose.

[Chris2303]

One community case in Auckland this afternoon

[josephfeatherweight]

I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

I get what you're saying and I'm glad to hear you have made the right choice to get vaccinated. But the time will come when the Australian population has ALL had a really good opportunity to be vaccinated and where my patience will have been exhausted making "allowances" for other people's (IMHO) poor choice. Perhaps when I lose my job. Note, we're not at that point yet, because the vaccine roll-out has been an unmitigated disaster.
If I get vaccinated, I protect the non-vaccinated by reducing the chance of transmission, should I become infected by COVID. By an individual "choosing" to not get vaccinated, they put me at risk. I don't think that's ok.
A summarised/altered quote (wrongly attributed to the French President) goes something like this:
"I no longer have any intention of sacrificing my life, my time, my freedom and the adolescence of my children, as well as their right to study properly, for those who refuse to be vaccinated. This time you stay at home, not us."
I would have no problem prioritising ICU beds for vaccinated citizens (suffering from whatever illness they may have) over non vaccinated citizens (due choice, not medical impediment) afflicted by COVID - they've made their choice.

[43Inches]

You didnt think 4124 cases that died due to Influenza / Pneumonia in 2019 was a cause for concern. Is that why you didnt advocate for Hard Border closures, Self Isolation and Vaccine Passports back then?


As I posted above only just under 900 died with flu in that season, that is not even from flu. Pneumonia is a pretty common cause of death for old aged, also being one of the ways covid kills you.

To put in perspective of 300,000 actual diagnosed flu cases only 246 made it to ICU. So the majority (of those that died) were not admitted to hospital with severe flu symptoms like Covid does to you. The rest of the 900 were most likely old aged or compromised and just had flu at the time of death. The difference with Covid is that last year when listed "died with covid" on your death cert Covid was the primary cause in 75% of cases, vs flu which would only account for 100 or so out of that 900 or around 10%. This year I would like to see the stats on "died due to covid" vs "died with covid" as I think most of the vaccine related will be a case of "died with" not "from".

[Chronic Snoozer]

Chronic Snoozer - TSK TSK TSK - I have NEVER made a single anti Vaccination post. I am, in fact, vaccinated, and currently still flying. I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from the unvaccinated when they feel it's important that others learn from their experience, that they 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

Happy?

[Lead Balloon]

I would have no problem prioritising ICU beds for vaccinated citizens (suffering from whatever illness they may have) over non vaccinated citizens (due choice, not medical impediment) afflicted by COVID - they've made their choice.And what if the non-vaccinated citizen does not have his or her 'Vaccination Passport' or Medicare Card in the pocket of their trackpants when run over at a pedestrian crossing and taken by ambulance, unconscious and critically injured, to an ICU?

If you can quote me an ICU doctor or nurse who's explained how they can practically work out who is voluntarily unvaccinated when presenting to an ICU, please post the link.

And what of children who've just complied with whatever their parents have decided about vaccination?

[ruprecht]

And what if the non-vaccinated citizen does not have his or her 'Vaccination Passport' or Medicare Card in the pocket of their trackpants when run over at a pedestrian crossing and taken by ambulance, unconscious and critically injured, to an ICU?

If you can quote me an ICU doctor or nurse who's explained how they can practically work out who is voluntarily unvaccinated when presenting to an ICU, please post the link.

And what of children who've just complied with whatever their parents have decided about vaccination?

Key phrase: “afflicted by COVID”.

[josephfeatherweight]

Hmmm. People don't take the time to read posts, do they? They love to get all excited and post back on full-automatic...

And what if the non-vaccinated citizen does not have his or her 'Vaccination Passport' or Medicare Card in the pocket of their trackpants when run over at a pedestrian crossing and taken by ambulance, unconscious and critically injured, to an ICU?

Well, they're not in ICU because of COVID, are they? So of course they deserve a bed. As per my initial post.

If you can quote me an ICU doctor or nurse who's explained how they can practically work out who is voluntarily unvaccinated when presenting to an ICU, please post the link.

When someone is admitted to ICU SUFFERING FROM COVID, they've probably not been vaccinated - there are VERY few people who medically CANNOT be vaccinated. You could ask them or their family? Check out their anti-vaxxer Facebook posts perhaps? Call their GP? Wouldn't be hard to work it out...

And what of children who've just complied with whatever their parents have decided about vaccination?
Good point - I hadn't thought of them - we'll exclude under 18s from the plan. See, with discussion, we're getting somewhere!

[43Inches]

It's one thing to maybe disagree or dislike the anti-vax, but you will never get a situation where an ICU medical professional will refuse to treat them, unless it came to a point the virus mutated so much it was a huge danger to them.

The treating doctor might put on a frown or an unhappy, "thank's for wasting our time", but they won't intentionally leave you to die.

Friday night your local hospital will be full of drunks, drug afflicted and the results of both, far more preventable and facility wasting than covid patients, vaxxed or not. At least lockdown has reduced this as well.

[Lead Balloon]

When someone is admitted to ICU SUFFERING FROM COVID, it's pretty obvious whether they've been vaccinated or not.Bollocks.

And due to minimum post length requirements: Complete bollocks.

[Lead Balloon]

Errrmmm, if anyone is labouring under the misconception that vaccination is a guarantee that you won't suffer from Covid, best to recalibrate them as best we can. It is an issue directly relevant to when the borders will be opened, which is I think the topic of this thread?

[Lookleft]

The whole point of the vaccine is to reduce the severe effects of Covid i.e. death from said virus. It is also claimed to reduce the impact on the lungs and heart. One dose is slightly effective but two doses are better. So the statement about being admitted to ICU is an indication of not being vaccinated should have the word "probably" added to it. Even then its is no indication of how many doses the person has had. LB is correct in that the point of being vaccinated is to allow for society to be able to live with Covid and have the borders opened.

[Lead Balloon]

Exactly, LL. Two doses are better, but aren't a 100% guarantee that the double-dosed won't contract and suffer from Covid.

[josephfeatherweight]

So the statement about being admitted to ICU is an indication of not being vaccinated should have the word "probably" added to it.
That's a fair point - agreed!

[Turnleft080]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/aug/16/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-australia-vaccination-rate-progress-how-many-people-vaccinated-percent-tracker-australian-states-number-total-daily-live-data-stats-updates-news-schedule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today
The tracker showing 70% by 9 Nov and 80% by 28th Nov. You get that feeling when the dates arrive the premiers and their more powerful CHOs will shift the goal posts again.

[minigundiplomat]

I’ve had both doses of the killer AZ to hold off the deadly and lethal Delta with its .5% mortality rate.

However, as easy as that choice was, it’s a CHOICE and I find it a little rich that all the ‘fraidy cats are deciding who should get medical treatment and who shouldn’t.

The vaccine doesn’t make anyone immune to COVID but reduces the severity. If people don’t want to have the jab, and subsequently die, then in my book they’ve made their choice and died in freedom.

But it’s a choice. Just because you’re dropping bricks in you speedos doesn’t give you the right to insist others are vaccinated with serums which are, if not experimental, then fairly new to use.

[compressor stall]

Meanwhile in Canada.

"As soon as possible in the Fall and no later than the end of October, the Government of Canada will require employees in the federally regulated air, rail, and marine transportation sectors to be vaccinated. The vaccination requirement will also extend to certain travellers. This includes all commercial air travellers," his office said.

[Torukmacto]

I’ve had both doses of the killer AZ to hold off the deadly and lethal Delta with its .5% mortality rate.

However, as easy as that choice was, it’s a CHOICE and I find it a little rich that all the ‘fraidy cats are deciding who should get medical treatment and who shouldn’t.

The vaccine doesn’t make anyone immune to COVID but reduces the severity. If people don’t want to have the jab, and subsequently die, then in my book they’ve made their choice and died in freedom.

But it’s a choice. Just because you’re dropping bricks in you speedos doesn’t give you the right to insist others are vaccinated with serums which are, if not experimental, then fairly new to use.

Totally agree ,
Im firmly in the camp that we have to work out a way to live with it . Vaccinations seemed to be logical way but if someone does not want to be vaccinated that’s their right. However if you don’t then you can’t ask to be treated the same . Why should the whole population be locked down , live with curfews , travel restrictions and pay the same for health insurance ? How hard is it to be given a QR code once vaccinated to get access to travel , sports arenas , pubs ?

[machtuk]

Class division, who would have thought in this Nation! There's only 2 sides to this BS con job, pick one & live with it without trying to destroy your fellow man & abusing each other but I guess that is the Aussie way!

[Chronic Snoozer]

But it’s a choice. Just because you’re dropping bricks in you speedos doesn’t give you the right to insist others are vaccinated with serums which are, if not experimental, then fairly new to use.Vaccinations are a common, run of the mill thing. But if 50 % choose not to vaccinate then we going to have issues. I don't have a problem with choice but it has to be better than just 'I don't want to'. With 4.5 nearly billion vaccines already administered, exactly who is dropping bricks in the speedos again?

[Paragraph377]

So many people putting trust in the Prime Minister and Premiers comments that once this magical number of 70 to 80% vaccination is reached, it will be freedom all around! Really? Show me the evidence. Show me the accurate data to prove that this will be the case, that 80% will do the trick. Not 81% and not 89.6% but 80% apparently. Show me the risk modelling factoring in known and latent risks.

Keep in mind that Scotty just shoved a giant pineapple up the ass of the people of Afghanistan by ‘getting the data wrong’ (they didn’t think the Taliban would take Kabul until December) and he has been complicit in throwing millions of people under the bus. Yeah, sure Scott, I believe you in regards to your ‘COVID freedom at 80% vaccinated promise’. The PMC spin machine is churning out promises as fast as the reserve bank is printing off dollar bills!

[josephfeatherweight]

I don't believe a word he says either, but 80% has got to be better for everyone than 25%.

[Paragraph377]

For those putting trust in our maestros of political BS and their promise of ‘80% vaccinated and its back to normal for Australia’, you may want to watch this clip.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aF4XOtaFp0k

[43Inches]

I don't trust any of them, thing is they set a bar, the people are fed up. When that 80% is hit, no one is going to listen to them if they try to keep things locked down, they know that, its already coming apart at the seams in Sydney, Melbourne is not far off.

[43Inches]

Why wait until reaching 80%. They have been saying daily lately, that only some freedoms will come back

80% would be the top mark tbh, if things don't start to ease up passing 60% and especially 70% I think disobedience will rapidly increase.

[ruprecht]

Why wait until reaching 80%. They have been saying daily lately, that only some freedoms will come back
I think people are waiting to give everyone a chance to get vaccinated. That’s only fair given the complete f*ck up of a rollout.

Once we get to that point, all bets are off.

[43Inches]

Pretty sure restrictions on international travel will be around for at least another year, but domestic travel and most restrictions will be gone. The most she could be talking about is masks and social distancing, the basic stuff. Although Gladys could go for broke and do anything, she's stuffed at the next election anyway.

I think people are waiting to give everyone a chance to get vaccinated. That’s only fair given the complete f*ck up of a rollout.

Spot on, the average reasonable person is following the rules and hanging on those magic 70-80%, which most of us know is about everyone that wants to be vaccinated done and dusted. Once its close to that you wont see much tolerance of further lockdowns without some try at opening up and letting it rip. That will be the main driver, not whether the pollies want to or not.

[Gnadenburg]

What the politicians and health bureaucrats may not be anticipating is the lack of a smooth transition out of Australia's pandemic response due to rapidly rising frustrations and fatigue. Civil disobedience can get quickly out of hand. More and more perceived inequalities due inconsistent health policies will fuel social discord. The economy will be put under strain however, Australians who will inevitably have to suffer, will see the cosy in government positions dictating "compliance" and "obedience" despite vaccination targets being achieved.

If you aren't getting vaccinated, stop dodging the salads, get some sunshine and general fitness. The let it rip sentiments may be upon us courtesy of unravelled social cohesions.

[Paragraph377]

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/nsw-premier-says-even-with-80-per-cent-double-dose-and-zero-cases-restrictions-will-remain/news-story/24c2e8505c2e9514a0ab90cef930a18b
Here is a new figure - 100%. Gladys and her posse will still receive 100% of their public servant salaries during these unprecedented times. Gladys will get to travel domestically and internationally 100% of the time that she chooses too, all in the name of ‘contributing to the economy’ or whatever bull**** excuse they spin to us. Yes, our politicians are 100% protected from the disastrous fallout that they are creating for everybody else. Parasites.

[hamfists]

If you haven’t been vaccinated and you end up in hospital the recommended treatment by the majority of American hospitals is Monoclonal, anti inflammatory corticosteroids, vitamin D, Zinc and a good antibiotic. Leave out the other contentious treatments those ones listed are the reason Covid deaths have dropped off a cliff since early in the pandemic. News from a month ago was that Delta is less virulent not more..that narrative seems to evolved with some sort of Chinese whispers among the great unwashed to the opposite belief.

​​​​​​…the news is good if you’re a glass half full person.

ICU advice is to NEVER ventilate a Covid patient (unless crashing). Best practice is to lay them face down on a bed with 100% oxygen non-invasive ventilation.

Covid casualties are still almost exclusively among the elderly with co-morbidities and the morbidly obese

[43Inches]

Yes, our politicians are 100% protected from the disastrous fallout that they are creating for everybody else. Parasites.

Anyone that's not affected is not affected, doctors are working harder than ever, take-away and click collect providers and delivery services are reaping it in. However as I said before Gladys is only protected until the next election, then her job will be up for consideration, so no, she's not 100% protected. Not making excuses for her just making it clear we all have the ability to send any one of these pollies a clear message at the voting station next round. Even if you are not sure about the other guy, make it clear you didn't like what they did. If she gets decimated by public sentiment then she won't even have any political future, even in opposition.

[neville_nobody]

However as I said before Gladys is only protected until the next election, then her job will be up for consideration, so no, she's not 100% protected. Not making excuses for her just making it clear we all have the ability to send any one of these pollies a clear message at the voting station next round. Even if you are not sure about the other guy, make it clear you didn't like what they did. If she gets decimated by public sentiment then she won't even have any political future, even in opposition.



So you would prefer Victorian style communist lockdown where you have to get written permission from the government to go to work? Australians are impossible. You complain about lockdowns and lost freedom, then want to vote out the only government that actually looks for a balance with freedom.

Do you really think a coast to coast Labor government would actually give you more freedom?

[43Inches]

Covid casualties are still almost exclusively among the elderly with co-morbidities and the morbidly obese

Depends on the level of health care provided, Fiji recently had two pregnant women in their 30s die due to covid and a girl of 15. It's still a nasty disease, and if you get the severe symptoms and don't seek medical advice, you risk dieing at any age.

[43Inches]

So you would prefer Victorian style communist lockdown where you have to get written permission from the government to go to work? Australians are impossible. You complain about lockdowns and lost freedom, then want to vote out the only government that actually looks for a balance with freedom.

I never said Dan was immune to the same thing. Just very unlikely as a vast majority have supported his stance to date. Gladys has let it get to the point where there is civil incohesion and suburbs blaming each other, rules that are too complicated for the average Joe to understand. There is significant difference to how each is viewed by their own at the moment. You don't see individual Melbourne mayors speaking out about flawed State protocols etc... Melbourne everyone has basically the same rules, Sydney, its based on suburb, and the tradies are kicking up a stink in western suburbs due to them having to jab when a Bondi tradie can roam free. And BTW what lockdown and communism has to do with each other, no idea, the US has mandated curfews and lockdowns on cities due to civil disobedience. It's a dictatorial method or police state method. A Democracy can be a police state, as opposed to a liberal democracy. I think that's what you may have been referring to.

[KRviator]

The problem with that concept, 43I, is that the only people who can vote Dan / Gladys out are their respective State citizens. Even though Gladys' failure to lockdown earlier has had nationwide implications, those in Qld or Vic have got no say, anymore than me having a say in McGoose's re-election hopes, even though I've spent more time actually in WA over the last decade than my home state...

FWIW, I don't blame Gladys for this screwup. Yes, they should have locked down earlier, we know that now. They were running their standard playbook for the original strain and got caught out by Delta that doesn't play by those rules. Vic is beginning to lose it, even EnZud has got cases of it now and they've had none for yonks. Of course, she could have kept it out of NSW for almost the entire pandemic by doing what Tasmania has done - not accept any incoming airfreight or international passengers but who else was going to step up and do it? Anna-Stayaway? McGoose?

I've noticed an increasing trend for Pollie's to start sprinkling their press conferences with comments such as "even if we get to 70% / 80% some restrictions will remain however, they will not verbalize just what those restrictions may be beyond masks and social distancing, as if to suggest that's all there will be.

[43Inches]

FWIW, I don't blame Gladys for this screwup. Yes, they should have locked down earlier, we know that now.

I would have agreed with that, except, less than 1 month before Sydney got its first case Gladys and their team were sticking the boot into Brett Sutton in Vic for suggesting "This Delta strain is far more virulent and seems to transmit in short casual contacts". So they had ample warning, and were using the situation for political mileage, not for any other reason. The whole wait and see was to sink the boot into Dan saying, look we did it without any lockdown. There was even a few NSW ministers that quite publicly claimed Sutton was incompetent for suggesting Delta was anymore communicable.

If it wasn't for that I'd agree with you, but with those sentiments and others, Gladys and her team were playing, "I'm better than you" politics and paid for it. She is definitely to blame.

PS Don't forget that SloMo was also in the background saying all the states should ease up, it ain't that bad. Now he's saying "Lockdowns are a necessary part of our road out". Only since it took off out of Sydney, "nothing to see here, hey I told you so, I always said you need to lock down hard and fast", *winks at Dan and backs away to maintain obscurity again*.

[turbantime]

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-to-require-employees-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/

[43Inches]

While I disagree with forcing people to get jabs, it's obviously starting now, that if you don't get it you will have to really fight to hold that stance. That 4% is going to have to comply, fight hard or find other work...

[Chronic Snoozer]

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-to-require-employees-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/

Good to see QANTAS has a plan.

[turbantime]

While I disagree with forcing people to get jabs, it's obviously starting now, that if you don't get it you will have to really fight to hold that stance. That 4% is going to have to comply, fight hard or find other work...
Some colleagues have mentioned that they are going to start calling the anti-vaxxers who capitulate ‘pussies’. These anti-vaxxers have been extremely vocal, disruptive and downright dangerous. If they truly believe in their cause, they will resign. I predict that most won’t and will get the jab, therefore they are hypocrites and will be labelled as pussies for the rest of their careers.

[43Inches]

Some colleagues have mentioned that they are going to start calling the anti-vaxxers who capitulate ‘pussies’. These anti-vaxxers have been extremely vocal, disruptive and downright dangerous. If they truly believe in their cause, they will resign. I predict that most won’t and will get the jab, therefore they are hypocrites and will be labelled as pussies for the rest of their careers.

Sad to see, I'm obviously Pro-vax, but, I believe its just a matter of education on the subject. Hence I continue the fight on this forum, but I would happily have a beer and chew the fat with a non-vaxer, and yes you will get annoyed with me asking you to get the jab, but I don't hate them. I'm the same with any subject matter I get involved with, it's opinions. This one is just very important to everyones welfare, both physical and economic (my point of view). A lot of anti vaxxers are not crazies, they just don't trust the vaccines being so new, so that is an education issue, not a stupidity, ignorance or whatever, that only comes in what you flatly refute facts given to you or just flat make stuff up. Then theres the media who is just as much to blame as SloMo for the slow vaccine roll out.

[DirectAnywhere]

Wonder what the vibe is this morning at the Coward St Wellness Centre? Is the yoga, basket making and garden walking sufficient to quell the angst at mandatory vaccination policy?

[turbantime]

Sad to see, I'm obviously Pro-vax, but, I believe its just a matter of education on the subject. Hence I continue the fight on this forum, but I would happily have a beer and chew the fat with a non-vaxer, and yes you will get annoyed with me asking you to get the jab, but I don't hate them. I'm the same with any subject matter I get involved with, it's opinions. This one is just very important to everyones welfare, both physical and economic (my point of view). A lot of anti vaxxers are not crazies, they just don't trust the vaccines being so new, so that is an education issue, not a stupidity, ignorance or whatever, that only comes in what you flatly refute facts given to you or just flat make stuff up. Then theres the media who is just as much to blame as SloMo for the slow vaccine roll out.
Fair call. I don’t have a problem whatsoever with the ones that are hesitant as I get where they’re coming from. I too engage with them as best as I can.

The ones I’m referring to are on the extreme end of the scale. The ones who mock people for getting vaccinated. The ones who purposely go out of their way to spread misinformation and instil fear. The ones who beat their chests about how they are not sheep and no one can tell them what to do. I’m talking about the very low percentage of abject morons who we have the unfortunate misfortune of calling our colleagues. If they capitulate, and don’t resign, then they are hypocrites.

[Xeptu]

I don't have any issue with the vaccine, but that's only because I'm old and it probably isn't going to matter either way. I'm more concerned about the virus itself and it's impact upon my grandchildren. We haven't really been introduced to it yet, only the corona its trojan horse. We don't know anything about it other than it's very long and complex. That surely has to mean lots of capabilities. It really does have us by the short and curlies, so I don't think we should be judging anyone for anything just yet.

[Agent_86]

633 in SYD today....

[43Inches]

The ones I’m referring to are on the extreme end of the scale. The ones who mock people for getting vaccinated. The ones who purposely go out of their way to spread misinformation and instil fear. The ones who beat their chests about how they are not sheep and no one can tell them what to do. I’m talking about the very low percentage of abject morons who we have the unfortunate misfortune of calling our colleagues. If they capitulate, and don’t resign, then they are hypocrites.

Oh yes, open season on them for sure, no problem with that. I think that might be a general theme throughout society not just certain workplaces. Most will conform and pretend nothing happened though.

[Australopithecus]

Just got an email from Alan…vaccines mandatory from late November for ALL crew in the Qantas group.