NEWCASTLE - 8

[chaps1954]

Very much doubt NCL could support 2 carriers to MAD and RYR would do everything it can to stop the likes of Iberia Express which is only a small airline in reality

[ATNotts]

Very much doubt NCL could support 2 carriers to MAD and RYR would do everything it can to stop the likes of Iberia Express which is only a small airline in reality
If you'd asked BHX if they would have 2 carriers, let alone 3, on MAD a few years ago they'd probably have looked at you as though you were daft...but I do agree the two regions are very different.

When you're looking at business traffic connecting through Madrid to South America, frequency probably isn't as as vital; timing - to connect with as many onward flights as possible, with minimum transit time is more important.

Moving on from MAD, I would have thought FRA minimum 2 x daily ought to be top of the wishlist, and I'm surprised that NCL hasn't got that yet - even once daily. If not FRA, then MUC surely.

[SWBKCB]

Moving on from MAD, I would have thought FRA minimum 2 x daily ought to be top of the wishlist, and I'm surprised that NCL hasn't got that yet - even once daily. If not FRA, then MUC surely.

One of the problems the United New York service had was the lack of Star Alliance frequent flyers, with the regions big spenders tied into the other alliances. Slots is usually quoted as an issue for FRA, but this is probably also an issue.

Anyway, we are pretty well served for hubs if you're going east.

[A320.b744]

A Munich link is a possibility, but it would probably be a seasonal Eurowings connection rather than LH or LH Cityline. I can't see FRA happening anytime soon due to the airport being slot restrained.

NCL is pretty well connected with Star Alliance: SAS to CPH and by proxy to BRU with BMI given that SN codeshares.

I honestly can't see NCL getting any other full service carriers in the near future. Ryanair, Eurowings and potentially Vueling will open up the majority of new routes over the next few years.

[jensdad]

Must admit, I'll be surprised if Ryanair last long on the Madrid route. It's obviously pitched at leisure travellers - NCL to MAD rather than the other way round - and Madrid can be very unpleasantly hot in Summer. Does it run all year or just summer only? Oslo and Milan didn't last long and I suspect Madrid will be the same. Maybe once they sling their hook there'll be an opportunity for Iberia. But even then, I'm not convinced there's a massive market from the North East to Latin America. Sorry to be negative... :*

[crewmeal]

The other thing to consider is that IAG are looking at a long haul low cost carrier based in BCN or MAD and Vueling seem to be getting their act together. This would mean more connecting flights from the regions to fill the A330's, so don't be surprised if you see additional flights from NCL in the future.

[Jamesair]

I would point out that the Ryanair flights to Oslo and Milan were not actually to those airports but operated when they used seriously far out of town airports. Maybe they would have done a lot better if the flights had been operated to the actual cities.

[jensdad]

Very true, Jamesair. Bergamo is relatively simple to get to from Milan (about as far as Malpensa but with a bus rather than rail connection), but I've heard that Sandefjord is a serious ball-ache to get to from Oslo. Oslo is one route that I am really surprised doesn't operate from Newcastle these days. I went there on the good old Braathens 737 back in 1998 and it was full.

[tigertanaka]

I agree with the comments about Norwegian not launching US services from NCL but would love them to introduce Oslo.

[canberra97]

I took the bus once from Oslo to Sandefjord and I can confirm that it is a serious 'ball-ache' of a journey and seems to go on forever, last time I took it was in the evening so it was dark, I had fallen asleep and when I woke up and I had to ask another passenger was this the bus going to Sandefjord as we still had nearly n hour to go, never will I use that airport again to get to and from Oslo.

[inOban]

Once Norwegian started flying between EDI and Oslo proper, Ryanair cut back and then abandoned the route. I would have thought that NCL has a good chance, given the long-standing links.

[SWBKCB]

RYR dropped Oslo in March 2007, so potential operators have had a long time to think about it.

[Beatts]

On a side, one thing id like your opinion on is BA routes out of the Toon, could they make any work most likely a long hauler?

[EK77WNCL]

There's little point in me trying to structure a counter argument because I've done it enough times to know it'll be shrugged off again by the "experts" but there are a few things I want to say

I'm confident Ryanair will make Madrid work, I could see maybe 1 of the Polish routes faltering but I'm sure they'll see growth in that area and from NCL in general. Although the option of connections in MAD would be nice, it's probably limited. Had Heathrow's 3rd runway gone the other way, I think we would have seen IAG starting to use MAD and DUB more for UK regional flights.

I'm sure we'll get Iceland one day be it Icelandair, Wow, easyjet or Thomson. Maybe Jet2 or Ryanair if they open it. There's no service between Manchester and Edinburgh.

It's been said before on here, our Bergamo flights went out full, they did well, but then Ryanair got Manchester slots, so we lost it. They started MAN-BGY the week after they pulled NCL-BGY with the same days of operation, timings etc. An all too common trend from here.

Re: Star Alliance loyalty in the North east, when I flew NCL-DUS-NCL on my way to China, (seriously, always look at LH from NCL on long haul if you need to travel, they have amazing deals, I paid £290 to Shanghai), on both flights I heard more than 1 conversation about people keeping up their silver/gold star alliance status.

If you think about it, there are very few options for non stop transatlantic flights currently. The vast majority are on US legacies, which is why it's difficult for airports like NCL to cut the mustard. When that changes, we will stand more of a chance. Why is it bad that people want a transatlantic service?

Manchester and moreso Edinburgh are going to be NCL's main problem, or downfall in the next few years. Airlines and passengers are fickle...

NCL has been behind UK growth for a lot of years, we're a strong and established airport and as far as I'm aware we are profitable. That must be a good thing... And hopefully means over the next few years there'll be room to take some measured risks, offer airlines nice incentives, grow markets and further establish our passenger base. I'd like to see better connections from Cumbria, Teesside, Northumberland etc.

[AerRyan]

Thanks to the Metro connection to the airport it can tap into a fairly large market, access to an airport is important.

Let the volatility and uncertainty of the UK economy post brexit calm before any airline realistically looks at services from NCL.

Is there a market though? That's the one that makes me wonder. Last time I flew from Newcastle there was one passenger connecting onto America (Los Angeles) in Dublin from our Aer Lingus Regional flight. That's not exactly alot.

[ash666]

"......access to an airport is important".
----------------

It's still annoying that there is no public transport to NCL in time to check in for the busy 6am-7am flight period.

[SWBKCB]

On a side, one thing id like your opinion on is BA routes out of the Toon, could they make any work most likely a long hauler?

BA have shown little interest in the regions for many years, though there has been noise about MAN recently. Never say never but...

It's been said before on here, our Bergamo flights went out full, they did well, but then Ryanair got Manchester slots, so we lost it. They started MAN-BGY the week after they pulled NCL-BGY with the same days of operation, timings etc. An all too common trend from here.

Which would suggest that it wasn't a strong performer.


Re: Star Alliance loyalty in the North east, when I flew NCL-DUS-NCL on my way to China, (seriously, always look at LH from NCL on long haul if you need to travel, they have amazing deals, I paid £290 to Shanghai), on both flights I heard more than 1 conversation about people keeping up their silver/gold star alliance status.

The Star Alliance offering from DUS isn't great (Newark, Tokyo, Singapore?) - so presumably need onward connections to MUC or FRA? Not very competitive against single change options from LHR, AMS, CDG, DXB. SAS are often cheap, but the connections aren't great (which again suggests that we are mainly point-to-point or European feed, rather than long haul)


If you think about it, there are very few options for non stop transatlantic flights currently. The vast majority are on US legacies, which is why it's difficult for airports like NCL to cut the mustard. When that changes, we will stand more of a chance. Why is it bad that people want a transatlantic service?

Agreed - but if not on a US legacy, you lose the onward connectivity and it becomes more point-to-point, which reduces the size of the market. Nothing wrong with wanting a transatlantic service, but there are suspicions that it became a "holy grail" for the airport, taking up a disproportionate amount of management time which could have been better used on less glamorous but more attainable targets

I'd like to see better connections from Cumbria, Teesside, Northumberland etc.

Agreed - but this is the airports main problem, its hinterland/catchment area is small, mainly rural or poor in comparison with other UK regions

[canberra97]

Lets be absolutely serious BA will never operate long haul out of NCL they don't have a history of doing so out of the airport and I am sure there would be other airports in the UK they would look to for long haul way before they even considered NCL.

Even if it's taken a long time for BA to rethink long haul out MAN as yet they are still rumours plus BA have previously operated long haul out of the airport not in the case of NCL.

[jensdad]

I think it will take a massive cultural shift in BA (and maybe also in our London-centric British society as a whole, but that's a jetblastish issue...) before BA launch transatlantic services from any regional airport, let alone NCL. I'd love to see it happen but I fear not.
On a positive note (I can be positive occasionally :) ) it looks like Ryanair starts in March. Springtime and Autumn are generally pleasant in Madrid. If some of the small-c conservative North East public can be convinced that Castile is indeed more interesting than the Costas, which it certainly is to me anyway, then it could well work.

[N707ZS]

I like to fly and drive in Spain so more airports is good news, you don't have to start and end your trip on the coast.

[LiamNCL]

Handy link for trips to watch Real Madrid aswell.

[EK77WNCL]

I think these are exactly the things the airport need to advertise... Let people know Madrid is new, let them know it's a city worth visiting, tell them there's more to Spain, and especially for the North East... Go and see a football match and have a weekend away

1 year ago yesterday I flew NCL-BCN on the Friday night, back Sunday night. Bar our school trip party of 8-ish, most of the rest of the passengers were there to see Barca play, and I'd have said about half of the passengers were the same people on both flights. About 90% full IIRC, not bad for January but the flights were about £50 return

SWBKCB - I had to check it wasn't April Fools Day when I read your reply, I can't believe we agree on something... Let alone 2 things!

I agree as well, it has to be a US airline for the connectivity and that's why I think Jetblue is pretty much perfect for us. Lower fares, better service and product (compered to the European image of Low Cost Carriers) and connections at JFK. But it obviously depends if they do go transatlantic. I know we're a small market but it's a chance for them to avoid going head to head with NAX.

Yeah again you're right and not only that, Dusseldorf isn't a nice airport to transfer in really... There's not a whole lot to do unless 1. You're in the LH lounge, 2. You don't bore easily and are happy in a cafe for 3/4 hours or 3. You smoke and are sociable and get drawn into conversations in the smoking areas. I did #2 on the way out and was bored shi*less and #3 on the way back and almost missed my flight. If the connection is less than 2 hours it's wonderful but after that you start struggling - you can go to the observation deck on the train if you go through security though, but I'd be wary and only do that if I had about 4 hours.

It amazes me that bmi regional don't fly NCL-FRA, and it also amazes me that Berlin is only just coming back and that one or all of Hamburg, Hannover and Munich haven't been reinstated after HLX went bust. I hope Eurowings might change that, especially in the case of Munich at least

[GrahamK]

November Provisional stats:

BRU: -10%
CPH: An extra 3 passengers!
CDG: -6%
SXF: 2677
DUS: +1%
ORK: +189%
DUB: +30%
AMS: -3%
ALC: +19%
BCN: +33%
AGP: +79%
ACE: +33%
FUE: +69%
LPA: +30%
TFS: +12%
SVG: -51%
GVA: -54%
PRG: -9%
GDN: 2074
KRK: 2368
WMI: 2262
WRO: 2112
DXB: -2%

LHR: +3%
BFS: +2%
CWL: +10%
EXT: +20%
SOU: +4%

[yeo valley]

no brs figures shown. Is there any reason.

[MANFOD]

Where are you seeing Nov. stats? I can still only get October's on the CAA web site.

[GrahamK]

BRS figures not reported yet.

[VickersVicount]

Im guessing the 2% drop for DXB is not really of concern. Think GLA was up however. The calculated load factors for EDI QR are not great, that route remains hit or miss, which is surprising.

[GrahamK]

BHX-DXB had a 4% decline despite having a 3rd daily flight. Overall NCL-DXB is up for the year i believe

[OltonPete]

GrahamK

Are you on about November 16? If we are it is like comparing apples and pears. BHX - DXB was three daily in November 2015 and in November 16 it was two daily for the whole month.

Also November 2015 BHX - DOH was nil as it hadn't started and in November 16 I guess it was around 10-12000 pax.

BHX-DXB November 15 52890 average 294 pax load factor 73% (pre 380)
BHX-DXB November 16 50774 based on -4% but I have not seen any figures, which equates to 423 per flight at 81% which is very much okay although I noticed fares were slightly softer than usual although not at Qatar levels.

The cancellation of EK41/42 during November was not a last minute decision but the official explanation was never given publicly and it was presumed due to pressure on yields as it was the first winter with Qatar in the fray.

However November is usually a good month but November 2015 flagged up warnings with 73% on EK before the A380 (89% in Nov 2014) as it had not been that low for years.

Pete

[MANFOD]

Please can somebody explain where you are seeing these figures by route for various airports for November 2016?

[GrahamK]

MANFOD, see PMs

[MANFOD]

Thanks GrahamK. Have just replied.

[EK77WNCL]

Gdansk: 8 return journeys, 3024 seats, 68.58% LF approx 130 pax
Warsaw: 9 return journeys, 3402 seats, 66.49% LF c. 126 pax
Wroclaw: 8 return journeys, 3024 seats, 69.84% LF c. 132 pax

Krakow: 8 return journeys, 2368-3024 seats, 78.31-100% LF c.148 pax

Berlin: 13 return journeys, 4056 seats, 66% LF c. 103 pax

Oh dear :/

You all know I'm often very optimistic but I don't feel good about these. I'm worried 4 new routes, 9 new flights per week, was too much too soon. Krakow is obviously a very strong route, the flights aren't cheap but they're always well filled.

Ok I feel a bit better about Berlin, the flights weren't too cheap. There were some very low fares but EZY appeared to be avoiding what FR were doing. In the summer I paid £45pp return for 2 to go to Warsaw in December (never ended up making it unfortunately). I kept skyscanner alerts on, by September it was down to £20/30 return, twice it went under £10 return in sales, the lowest it got was £8 and it stayed there a few days, then it stayed under £30 until the day before...

From the prices I've seen ( I know it doesn't count for much) but Warsaw seems to have had rock bottom prices, Wroclaw has been variable but Gdansk has averaged higher fares I think. Either way, yields through this winter on all of Ryanair's Polish routes are going to be utter ****e, there's no way around it. The fares have been through the floor and people won't be paying for checked luggage on city breaks. I hope onboard purchases have been good, and people have been choosing their seats etc. Filling them in the depths of winter is a good sign, the passengers are there, and hopefully they get them to come back... If they paid £10 this time, they might pay £20 next time, and bring friends/family and spend £30/40 after that and bring a suitcase.

Time... Please just give us time! But I think we could see the weakest one dropped this winter

[HH6702]

OMG........ jump first ask questions later!!!!

It's the first month don't panic Ryanair will know they have to build up the routes and winter isn't the time to do it.

Yes we need better loads than late 60% but I'm they will increase as the months carry on

Onboard sales im sure will be better than the 40mins flights to Dublin

[EK77WNCL]

I know I know! But even in low season, £10 each way within 12 hours of departure...

I'm so glad they filled them, at least we know the people are there, probably the best way to make a loss vs 40% LF's at £50 each, get the bums on the seats and hope they come back

I think they'll make it work, but unless they have quite a good summer, I think the weakest will go. After all they'll have had over 12 months lead in for people to book up. I have faith in Ryanair

easyjet on the other hand, past history... Could go either way 70/30 it doesn't survive 3 years when they find somewhere to redeploy the A/C. I desperately hope to be proven wrong on that one

[SWBKCB]

The fares have been through the floor and people won't be paying for checked luggage on city breaks.

Doubt these Polish routes are aimed at the city breaks market, but it did seem odd to launch all three at once. However, I'm sure that RYR know more about the UK-Poland market than me and anybody else on here! :ok:

[Jamesair]

Cobalt Aero ....Larnaca - Newcastle is now showing on their website again although flight times etc are not yet shown.

[EK77WNCL]

It definitely is odd (or brave... Or stupid... Or very clever and cunning!) of Ryanair to shart all 3 at once, there isn't really a massive Polish population up here, so I suspect that perhaps a larger proportion of traffic could be aimed at city breaks than say... Wizzair at Doncaster. Peculiar but I really do want it to work out for them. We need a bit of balls from time to time

Good news about Cobalt if it comes to fruition, I do wonder how many passengers they'll be able to pick up being a complete unknown round here, and against LS, TOM and TCX. 4 airlines in Cyprus now... Oh dear :/ I feel an OLT express coming on...

[HH6702]

Im surprised that Ryanair aren't doing Paphos yet maybe next year

[EK77WNCL]

Based on history at other UK airports I think/wonder if Chania is in the pipeline?

[Jamesair]

Has anyone noticed that on Wikipedia (Newcastle) it says ...Air France (CDG) operated by City Jet (ends 28th Oct)...operated by HOP (from (29th Oct).

[VentureGo]

Has anyone noticed that on Wikipedia (Newcastle) it says ...Air France (CDG) operated by City Jet (ends 28th Oct)...operated by HOP (from (29th Oct). Confirmed on Air France booking site as operated by Hop! Air France, Embraer 190 aircraft

[OltonPete]

Jamesair

Probably because CDG will be operated by HOP from winter 17/18!

It is all in the booking engine 3 daily except Saturday which appears to be 2.

A good result for Newcastle if this happens although not a great difference in the capacity.

Pete

[EK77WNCL]

Equates to an extra 100 seats per week, good news I think, a bit more boring and I think it'll be sad to see the RJ's go, as well as sad we won't be getting the SSJ's, but it brings us in line with the rest of Air France's UK operations and hopefully... Hopefully... Might result in lower prices?

[Jamesair]

Airport Stats for December now on their website.

Movements at 3772 (3441 Dec 2015)

Pax at 305,842 (258,252)

Increases in IT and International, falls in Domestic and Other

A very healthy increase of 47,590 in pax handled.

[EK77WNCL]

Hopefully the extra daily flight to Southampton will mitigate decreases in domestic traffic in 2017

Looking healthy again finally!

[HH6702]

DO we dare ask did DXB increase ?

[Jamesair]

According to Graham K's post of Nov. stats, it was down 2%

[Beatts]

4.8m passengers in 2016 for DXB.

[jensdad]

erm... 4.8 million? Are you sure, Beatts? :)

[VentureGo]

Newcastle Airports Total Passenger volume for 2016 was 4,860,265 (4.8m) - maybe this is what Beatts is referring to?

[Beatts]

Haha sorry lads it seems i shouldn t trust the Hexham Courant! :') Newcastle Airport targets passengers from Cumbria (http://www.in-cumbria.com/Newcastle-Airport-targets-passengers-from-Cumbria-6229410c-7242-4c6a-a43c-3e84c317feeb-ds) I knew it didnt sound right so i dunno why i posted it!

[Jamesair]

I think you misread the article, Beatts.

[Beatts]

Seems to have changed since i seen it, was defiantly saying it was Emirates with the pax numbers.

[SWBKCB]

Press release on the airport website:

Newcastle International Airport continues to fly high with confirmation that over 4.8m passengers travelled through in 2016. With an increase of 6% compared to 2015, over 250,000 more passengers used the airport last year, which has now seen six years of positive year on year growth.

August was the busiest month for the region’s biggest airport, with almost 600,000 passengers passing through the terminal, the highest number since 2007. The airport recorded its strongest December in over 10 years, with more than 300,000 passengers travelling in the final month of 2016.

The airport’s daily Emirates service to Dubai celebrated record numbers in August. The route, set to celebrate ten years of operation in 2017, carried 22,745 passengers in August from Newcastle and its Dubai hub.

Alicante was the favoured holiday destination for the North East travelling public, with 341,298 people travelling to the Costa Blanca....

....Nick Jones, Interim Chief Executive at Newcastle International Airport, said: “2016 was a fantastic year with some amazing achievements. We have seen a number of record breaking months at the airport and to have now seen six years of positive year on year growth is a great accomplishment. We have worked very hard to build a route network that offers a wide variety of choice to suit the needs of all our passengers. With even more choice available from Newcastle for a number of years, 2017 is set to be a special year for the airport as we expect to surpass 5 million passengers.”

[Jamesair]

CAA stats for November are now on line (minus Bristol) . The December stats are there as well but minus several airports...including Newcastle....will be updated on 27th Jan.

[Heathrow Harry]

I think the Airport has done a good job over the last few years - it was heading downhill towards East Midland style operations but it is now pretty well established - and has held to to Emirates

[SWBKCB]

all those freighters would never have fitted on Apron G :ok:

[highwideandugly]

Amazingly for a area with a reported massive "export" market for freight,that they don't seem interested in the slightest in Freight operations, Or even airline maintenance or scrappage or painting,aero clubs or helicopter ops or basically anything non passenger related???
Oh well..back to a real airport thread at DTV....

[SWBKCB]

OK - I'll play :)

Amazingly for a area with a reported massive "export" market for freight, that they don't seem interested in the slightest in Freight operations
550 tonnes in November (9th largest in the UK), and 979 tonnes of Mail (5th largest)

Or even airline maintenance or scrappage or painting,
Don't have the spare hangars, but it's in the Masterplan... :E
aero clubs
PTT

or helicopter ops
Police, Northumbria Helicopters

or basically anything non passenger related???
too busy with pax! :eek:

Oh well..back to a real airport thread at DTV....
Shut the door on your way out! :ok:

[10 DME ARC]

Freight; Unfortunately the airport is covered by Article 1(4) of Council Directive 96/67/EC which means ground handling has to be done by agents. So around 15 years ago the airport had to sell/transfer all the freight handling equipment to the then two handling agents. The most important piece of equipment was the high scissor lift was then sold on! So now unless the handling agents 'want' the business it goes to the likes of DSA, who are not big enough to be covered by the above directive and own our old high scissor lift I believe??
I guess when we leave the EU we could go back to the old way of ground handling??
GA?? Too busy?? Well when I moved to DXB we had a flying club with two twins and six singles and around 750 movements per day! Yes two runways but...... They only moved out when movements went through the 1000 per day!!

[SWBKCB]

I guess when we leave the EU we could go back to the old way of ground handling??

I would imagine revising the rules for ground handling at airports will be well down the list of priorities...

GA comments were tongue in cheek, but the North is well behind the rest of the country generally, not just a Newcastle issue - could be a bit chicken and egg (i.e. lack of facilities leading to a lack of activity) but the state of the economy probably has more of an impact.

[Beatts]

Regarding cargo, DHL which supplied the likes of Emirates and BA with all the businesses cargo on a nightly basis had to shut shop last year and moved all there ops down to Leeds way, that was a real blow to the amount we now handle.

[Heathrow Harry]

so what cargo would be for export? Barbour jackets I guess

the cash already goes to the Gulf in a dedicated service.....................

[highwideandugly]

Harry,it's been covered before..however there is a lot more "specialised" freight than to the Gulf.
It all goes from Doncaster or Stansted.

[Jamesair]

There is a lot of component parts cargo arrives in NCL to feed the Nissan plant in Washington. A lot of it in specially chartered freighters.

[SWBKCB]

https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northeast/newcastle-airport-to-new-york-service-on-the-agenda

[AerRyan]

Won't happen. As much as I'd like to see it happen, it won't. Realistically United are the only one who'd ever try it, Newcastle is far down the plucking list. Belfast also lost a service and their EWR service did much better than NCL's service. Maybe Norwegian, but we don't know how their venture will turn out.

[SWBKCB]

Belfast also lost a service and their EWR service did much better than NCL's service

Did it? How do you know?

[canberra97]

Well BFS to EWR lasted a lot longer than NCL to EWR so AerRyan may have a point.

[SWBKCB]

He may have a point but his post reads as fact, not opinion, so just seeking clarification (and NCL didn't benefit from tax breaks :ok:).

[AerRyan]

As well as the season being longer and loads being higher. Yield is alot, but it's pretty obvious here that BFS-EWR was a much superior route.

[SWBKCB]

...despite needing government support?

[AerRyan]

It didn't get any government support. Still did much better than NCL.

Does this bother you? Shall I tell you a lie?

[HeartyMeatballs]

Yes, I fail to see how a publically bankrolled route could be described as 'superior' to one operating at commercial risk. As soon as the free money dried up, so did the BFS route.

[SWBKCB]

It didn't get any government support.

How much APD did the pax pay? If government reducing taxation isn't support, I don't know what is.

Still did much better than NCL.

There you go again. In your opinion you think it did but I'd be very surprised if anybody outside United knows the full picture.

Don't mind people expressing opinions, but lets not dress them up as fact.

[AerRyan]

So am I making up that the season was significantly longer, the loads were significantly higher and the route ran for significantly longer?

[HH6702]

Didn't BFS need to pay £10m to keep the route for the next 2 years and United still pulled out ???

[AerRyan]

No, Stormont couldn't pay so they pulled out.

[HH6702]

BFS did have better loads in 90% most days and needed 10m funding still.

If that's the case then NCL would need to fund double that if not more.

[Jamesair]

Best bets could be American Airlines (One World) which might attract more business traffic or Norwegian or maybe there just isn't the required level of traffic required. United had some very poor loads out of holiday periods.

[AerRyan]

Considering AA's recent cuts at MAN and BHX I can't see that happening.

[SWBKCB]

To be a business friendly "global connectivity" service it would need to be one of the big American network operators to allow onward connections.

If you go with the likes of WOW etc what have they got offer over DUB, AMS, etc so you've got to ask whether they grow the market or just dilute your existing hubs.

Given the mention of Boston in this article, they probably have been talking to Norwegian (or thinking really long term JetBlue?)

John Irving, business development director, says transatlantic services are "not off the table" (From The Northern Echo) (http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/business/15029367.Come_fly_with_me__let___s_fly__let___s_fly_away___N ewcastle_Airport_eyes_further_growth/)

Leaving aside NYC, some other interesting stuff in here.

[A350Saltire]

The likes of WOW and Icelandair can offer an option which doesnt require back tracking - so quicker journey times and connections to a variety of US destinations.

[oldart]

The likes of WOW and Icelandair can offer an option which doesnt require back tracking - so quicker journey times and connections to a variety of US destinations.
Probably mentioned before, clearing US customs at Shannon can make for a quicker journey, obviously a good flight connection is required.

[HH6702]

Could aer lingus add Shannon route ?
2x daily using ATR?

[SWBKCB]

Dublin also has pre-clearance with multiple flights a day.

[AerRyan]

I'd love a Shannon route, having to treck to Dublin is a pain, but don't see it happening.

[Jamesair]

Ryanair at one stage operated a route to Shannon from NCL for a short period.

[GrahamK]

TCX resuming a weekly Hurghada flight from November 6th

[LiamNCL]

Hurghada takes the winter Sharm el sheikh slot. Saves constantly having it listed then ending up with no Monday flight anywhere

[EK77WNCL]

With hearing Ryanair have announced their Winter 17/18 flights, I thought I'd take a quick look. No change with the existing routes through March '18, all schedules reverting to the same winter schedule as W16/17

Polish routes look as if they're staying which is positive, good lead in time as well with over 12 months to book some.

Interestingly though, Mallorca, Girona, Madrid and Faro are not available after October. I would assume that at least Faro would stay on, 2/3 weekly in the Winter (in fact I would have thought they would all go year round, possibly excluding Mallorca). Would this, and the lack of announcement from either Ryanair or NCL, suggest that perhaps things are not quite final yet and there might be more to come?

Also just seen that Ryanair are increasing their presence at Malpensa. 2/3 weekly flights NCL-MXP with FR would be a good "meet in the middle" point over EZY to MXP or FR to BGO in my opinion.

I was also thinking, anyone think we might get Iceland this winter from Thomson?

[HH6702]

Ryanair have only put what was on sale last year on sale for next winter.
Don't worry they will announce what new routes will carry on through the winter when they release Newcastle flights 2017/18

Yes correct I'm expecting all on sale expect PMI also.
Expect a few increases also as they build up Newcastle.

[AerRyan]

Same as I've said on the Belfast thread, don't be so confident that Ryanair will continue to grow.

[HH6702]

Totally agree there small growth.

Madrid to go 3 weekly maybe

Be nice to get Milan back and maybe Lisbon and another city break route which would be year round.

[EK77WNCL]

I really hope we get growth...

My most optimistic prediction - presuming FR are happy with Gdansk, Warsaw, Wroclaw and Madrid... Is:

- Madrid goes year round, x2 weekly winter, x3 weekly S18
- Faro kept on x3 weekly through winter, then up to 5 weekly S18 (x4 S17 except August at x5)
- Alicante, Malaga, Lanzarote and Tenerife, no change, including S18
- Girona, remain x2 weekly W17/18, x3 weekly S18
- Polish routes stay at x2 weekly through to W18 when there *may* be a cull of at least 1, unless summer shows improvement, which it should
- Mallorca ends October '17, comes back daily in March '18, possibly x2 weekly winter '18

A handful, or all of: Budapest, Hamburg, Riga, Lisbon, Milan (hopefully MXP), Valencia or Seville, maybe Chania or Malta over the next 2 years. That would be nice.

Ibiza, Murcia, Fuerteventura, Corfu, Paphos I could also see them considering

Personally, I hope Stansted, Athens, Thessaloniki, Luxembourg, Marrakech and Catania are being looked at but I doubt it.

Realistically on the new routes front though I think Budapest and Milan will come online within the next 12 months... And I will be happy, and I think they will do well AND I think easyjet will be a little bit pee'd off. But unfortunately they will still continue not to respond and continue to lose market share until it looks favourable for them to drop NCL, blame it on brexit, Ryanair and Jet2...

[jensdad]

A very detailed prediction there, EK. I can see Milan (MXP) happening. Did Jet2 not start Budapest in the last couple of years or so, or did I imagine that? Places like Budapest are cyclical - they burn themselves out as soon as everyone in the North East who wants to go there has gone there. Riga and possibly Lisbon would probably be the same. Luxembourg is a really nice country, but I'd be amazed if anyone could make that work from NCL. And as I've said a few times on here, inbound tourism isn't big enough to even enter into the equation when we're talking about international routes.
Just one question, EK, and no disrespect is meant by this, but why do you think Ryanair to Malta would be nice? That would, imho ,put paid to Easyjet on that route.

[SWBKCB]

Perhaps we should restrict RYR predictions to those who got the three simultaneous Polish routes right? :ok:

[Jamesair]

The CAA stats for December have now been published, traffic on the three Ryanair Polish routes has picked up nicely, Dubai is virtually no change on last year.

[HH6702]

SWBKCB that's none of us then!!!

[SWBKCB]

Not a bad set of figures

foreign_airport total_pax_2016 total_pax_2015 percent
BERLIN 4,309 267 1513.86
IVALO 1,035 296 249.66
TURIN 326 121 169.42
FUERTEVENTURA 3,653 1,617 125.91
BARCELONA 6,241 3,151 98.06
CORK 1,006 556 80.94
BRIDGETOWN 482 289 66.78
MALAGA 12,257 7,767 57.81
ROVANIEMI 1,258 818 53.79
ARRECIFE 11,044 7,184 53.73
LAS PALMAS 5,913 3,915 51.03
SOFIA 92 65 41.54
TENERIFE 20,664 15,214 35.82
DUBLIN 22,169 16,389 35.27
INNSBRUCK 224 176 27.27
ALICANTE 16,950 14,208 19.30
DUSSELDORF 4,540 3,838 18.29
PRAGUE 2,813 2,420 16.24
ENONTEKIO 378 335 12.84
MALTA 2,219 2,016 10.07
GENEVA 5,793 5,398 7.32
COPENHAGEN 2,098 1,975 6.23
KRAKOW 2,604 2,465 5.64
BRUSSELS 1,356 1,299 4.39
(NEWARK) 1,111 1,094 1.55
PARIS (CDG) 13,286 13,131 1.18
DUBAI (DWC) 291 0 0.00
FUNCHAL 393 0 0.00
GDANSK 2,437 0 0.00
GRENOBLE 160 0 0.00
HAMBURG 161 0 0.00
KITTILA 3,009 0 0.00
LILLE 39 0 0.00
LYON 39 0 0.00
MAASTRICHT 55 0 0.00
MUNICH 289 0 0.00
PAPHOS 1,147 0 0.00
WARSAW 2,700 0 0.00
WROCLAW 2,672 0 0.00
AMSTERDAM 30,136 30,149 -0.04
DUBAI 21,034 21,132 -0.46
FARO 2,144 2,535 -15.42
SALZBURG 324 460 -29.57
STAVANGER 679 1,094 -37.93
CHAMBERY 0 371 -100.00
GOTEBORG 0 8 -100.00
TROMSOE 0 47 -100.00
Inter Total 211,530 161,800

[SWBKCB]

Domestic not so good

ABERDEEN 1,180 1,808 -34.73
BELFAST CITY 0 1,417 -100.00
BELFAST INTER 20,991 19,389 8.26
BIRMINGHAM 0 646 -100.00
BRISTOL 14,270 13,875 2.85
CARDIFF WALES 733 874 -16.13
EXETER 3,270 2,952 10.77
FARNBOROUGH 40 0 0.00
GATWICK 40 0 0.00
HEATHROW 41,396 41,832 -1.04
ISLE OF MAN 341 372 -8.33
LIVERPOOL 0 212 -100.00
LUTON 0 80 -100.00
MANCHESTER 0 80 -100.00
PRESTWICK 0 10 -100.00
SOUTHAMPTON 8,627 8,898 -3.05
STANSTED 0 1,002 -100.00
Domestic total 90,888 93,447

[EK77WNCL]

I don't think FR to Malta would have that much effect on EZY to be honest, as Ryanair do tend to stimulate markets, and Malta seems to be getting quite a bit more popular now.

Having said that I'd much rather Chania, Corfu and or Paphos, they would seem more flexible

Loads looking remarkably good on Berlin, that's filling me with confidence. Polish routes also very very good loads, but yields were 100% trashed this winter.

One thing striking me is how dire the load factors now are to Dusseldorf on the A319/A320... Same pax as EZY on double the flights, sometimes with a larger aircraft. Obviously it needs time to grow into the bigger A/C and I'm sure it will but right now, not amazing

I hope after a weak 2016, the lack of cannibalistic and barely economically viable capacity expansion (yes Qatar and Etihad I'm looking at you), might give Emirates a stronger 10th anniversary year

[jensdad]

I think Eurowings could be doing a hell of a lot more to publicise the fact that a) they fly from Newcastle to Dusseldorf, and b) they exist!
I don't remember ever seeing a single advertisement, and I suspect that mentioning the name 'Eurowings' to the average person in this neck of the woods would be met with a blank stare.

[ash666]

Is there a reason they go to Dusseldorf?

I would have thought that going to a major hub like Frankfurt would be much more profitable.

[SWBKCB]

Polish routes also very very good loads, but yields were 100% trashed this winter.

What are you basing that comment on?

Same pax as EZY on double the flights, sometimes with a larger aircraft.

Presumably you're referring to SXF? Same country, but not necessarily the same market - might be the same number of pax with more flights, but how much are they paying (have a look at the prices)? :ok:

I've certainly seen adverts for EWG, but I think nowadays people are more informed/swayed by sites like Skyscanner, Expedia, etc

Availability of suitable slots is normally mentioned in relation to FRA

[bigjim99]

Is there a reason they go to Dusseldorf?

I would have thought that going to a major hub like Frankfurt would be much more profitable.

I've done NCL DUS many times; can be excellent for cheap connections on EW and AB (providing you aren't scheduled to depart around the curfew!). Experience is much better than AMS or LHR.

Only thing is that a more frequent connection to NCL would be helpful to make it work as a hub.

[EK77WNCL]

Well to be fair I don't know about Ryanair, but I'd say it's a reasonable assumption to make that selling one way seats at an average of £2-£10 to get your planes 70% full... Probably isn't that much of a viable business case

Yes, however, fares are higher this year, and that is a good thing. As is getting almost 7500 people to fly to Poland in the low season. Even if it was cheap, then you can hope they'll come back

Again, yeah I know EWG pax pay more (not too much more though to be fair) that EZY pax... But even still, no half full A320 is going to stick around for long. Except I'm very confident by this time next year 5,000 pax per month at least, will be commonplace and the route will grow into it's new aircraft

[SWBKCB]

Right - I was taking "trashed" to mean lower than expected. I haven't seen the low fares quoted (probably cos I haven't been looking), but isn't using such fares to attract customers and generate awareness what Ryanair are based on - and that business model seems to have worked?

I've also no idea what the market for the North East to Poland is - city breaks, stag/hen or VFR, but if aimed at Poles in the northeast, Christmas/New Year might not be low season!

There are some very low fares available on EWG if you can chose you days/dates, but if you need to travel in a couple of weeks they tend to be far higher than EZY to SXF, so might not be as bad as feared (and most flights are on 319's so 60% full!:ok: )

[jensdad]

Berlin and Dusseldorf are so far apart that I doubt Easy's and Eurowings' markets overlap much, if at all. Eurowings' nearest competitors at NCL are KLM to Amsterdam, and BMI to Brussels. And if you're driving, Ryanair to Wroclaw are Easy's nearest competition at Berlin.

[AerRyan]

The fact that some suggested that DUS and SXF are the same market is baffling in itself.

[EK77WNCL]

Can I just point out 2 things. Although amazing deals are available with them £300 and less to Asia, South Africa etc. Because of the lack of Frankfurt flight, and therefore 2 stops necessary via Dusseldorf, hardly anyone ever considers Lufthansa from the north east. Also DUS only being 6 weekly and not timed very well for many connections, makes it less favourable.

The other thing is, I never suggested they were the same market. I said they use the same aircraft.

DUS is a good flight, I've used it and I will use it again. DUS is an alright airport, and I don't mind stopping twice in either MUC or FRA because they're some of the best airports I've ever used. I just want to see Lufty and Star grow at NCL with a Frankfurt link. Maybe if Eurowings takes over Brussels from bmi...

[tigertanaka]

I would love a FRA connection, DUS is very much akin to having a link to STN (nice to have but not as good as LHR). A flight in the middle of the day if you are connecting on to Europe or North America is not ideal either.

Recently I had to go to to LNZ in Austria which is basically a Star Alliance/bucket & spade airport and ended up getting a train to EDI to get a flight to FRA and then on to LNZ. NCL-DUS was a non starter as the later departure time, 2 connections plus the horrible non Schengen>Schengen terminal change at FRA would have turned a half day meeting into a 3 day trip.

Star have such domination in Germany, Austria, Belgium & Switzerland and a FRA connection would give us better access to secondary cities in these countries.

However from the perspective of FRA and LH, they probably do not see a NCL link as high up on their priority list. Maybe a double daily (morning/evening) DUS would be the most realistic improvement we can hope for?

[NCL-TRC]

As much as I'd like to see the return of Lufthansa / a FRA link I doubt it'll happen anytime soon. A more realistic alternative might come in the form of MUC depending on how quickly Eurowings decides to expand the new operation there. MUC is also a lot nicer to transfer through as opposed to FRA.
That said flight times will play a big factor, you'd really need two daily to properly open up connections, so perhaps BMI with a LH codeshare would be more workable.

[EK77WNCL]

Well, it looks rather inevitable that soon, Brussels is going to be a Eurowings stronghold, with Brussels Airlines short/medium haul (at least) being swallowed up. That begs the question, are we better off with a x6 weekly A320 to Brussels, lower fares, as opposed to the current x13 weekly setup with higher fares?

Personally I think we might be... But only IF they do transfer BM to x13/14 weekly Frankfurt or Munich

2 daily DUS would be lovely but I don't know if Eurowings would be able to justify sending their A320's. It was much more likely with the CRJ's. Unless... Eurowings, Air Berlin and Flybe fancy setting up some kind of menage a trois with 2 daily Dashes. Eurowings flights opped by Flybe under agreement with Air Berlin or something like that... There's a lot of overlapping going on in Germany at the minute

[HH6702]

Just flew back into Manchester from Hamburg with eurowings on there A320
Around 70 people on the flight which seats 180..

Maybe an over kill with seats on the route with EZY,FR,LH etc

[SWBKCB]

That begs the question, are we better off with a x6 weekly A320 to Brussels, lower fares, as opposed to the current x13 weekly setup with higher fares?

Depends what you mean by better off - is the region better off with more city breaks or better connectivity for business? Same for the airport - which do they make more out of?

What sort of operation is Air Berlin nowadays? Thought all there skeds are going to Eurowings and the rest to TUI?

Nerd point - has there ever been an LH FRA service (or have I misunderstood NCL-TRC?) Before my time, but didn't British Airways do a service combined with BHX in the 80's?

[EK77WNCL]

If Eurowings takover Brussels and we lose BM outright, we'll be worse off...

If they swap BRU for FRA/MUC, we'll be better off

6 weekly BRU would probably still work out for business. Hypothetically, £300 return with BM, or £50-100 return with BM and 1 night in a hotel, for business there might not be any difference.

As you mentione, it would open up BRU more to city breaks, and I would hope a return to 2 daily might be a thought in their head down the line, although it's debatable whether we could support it. I think with low fares maybe we could.

I'm sure FRA/MUC link would be better off for business and connecting traffic than BRU (except people who want to be in BRU - which will probably reduce come Brexit and the market demograpics of NCL-BRU will change)

[jensdad]

SWB, British Airways used to do a daily to Frankfurt, operated by a Birmex (remember them?) Gulfstream 1. Those were the days. Direct, I think it was.
The flight nos. were BA5744/5745. I really need to get out more.

[Heathrow Harry]

never understood why NCL has a flight to Dusseldorf but not FRA - Dusseldorf is a fine place but I'd have thought more Business was done in FRA

Bit like flying to Philadelphia rather than New York

[GrahamK]

There's been a DUS link for many a year. The Auf Wiedersehen Pet lads had to get to Germany somehow :E:ok:

[Jamesair]

NCL seems to have always had service to Dusseldorf, originally it was an extension of an Amsterdam route. I think business links have always been strong.

[GrahamK]

Madrid with Ryanair will continue through the winter, 2 x weekly

[Ph1l1pncl]

Düsseldorf and its surrounding area has always had strong air links to the UK, there are more uk destinations served from Düsseldorf than any other German airport. Newquay has links to Düsseldorf, for a time Inverness had a Düsseldorf link I believe. The UKs armed forces presence has always been in the North Rhine-Westphalia religion, which the capital of that state is Düsseldorf which has helped with those links. Frankfurt was up until 2005 the main Air Force base for the US Air Force in Germany, links weren't as strong to that region, and while it now is Lufthansa largest hub, we were just down the pecking order. Even now, I counted 7 UK destinations from Frankfurt but 13 from Düsseldorf.

[AirportPlanner1]

It's nothing to do with the military.

The primary reason for so many links to Düsseldorf is that it's the main industrial centre of Germany. Frankfurt is the financial centre. There aren't too many bankers that desperately need to move between Newcastle, Birmingham or Leeds and Frankfurt.

The second reason, and this is where Newquay and Inverness come in, is that it has an enormous catchment. Therefore it's a much better place to run leisure flights from than Frankfurt. For UK tourists it provides great access to Cologne and Rhine cruises.

[FQTLSteve]

Not sure about NCL or LBA but Lufthansa fly 4 x daily all year round between BHX and FRA usually a mix of A319/320/321 and have ben for years, it's a very well used service and has a lot of transfer traffic.

[toon22]

A bit off this thread, but NQY (and Hahn) from DUS is 85% German-originating. Given the number of German cars on the roads in Northumberland, I strongly suspect that the DUS route is one of few into NCL with a 50:50 UK and German origin passenger base.

[NorthEasterner]

DUS route is used well by Germans and other europeans travelling on wards as well of course the North East.

[NorthEasterner]

Madrid with Ryanair will continue through the winter, 2 x weekly

Have you got a link to confirm this? Ryanair.com and Ryanair iOS app showing MAD until 27th October 17.

[TSR2]

Given the number of German cars on the roads in Northumberland, I strongly suspect that the DUS route is one of few into NCL with a 50:50 UK and German origin passenger base.

I don't understand the link between the number of German registered cars and the passenger split on an air route. Am I missing something?

[toon22]

I don't understand the link between the number of German registered cars and the passenger split on an air route. Am I missing something?
My point was that there are many German visitors to the North East, evidenced by the cars on the road, and a number must come by air. No more scientific than that.

[SWBKCB]

https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northeast/boro-complete-deadline-day-deal

Think there is a similar deal still with Carlisle United - presumably part of push to widen the customer base in Teesside and Cumbria

[roofbox]

toon22
If they come by air they wont be driving german registered cars. Might hire ne, but it will have uk plates.

[AerRyan]

I suppose if these German tourists came by car, they may be more inclined to come by plane the next time they visit (if they do).

[HH6702]

All seasons timetable.

Airport timetable been updated to included all flights on sale till April 2018

Niki and Neos new airlines this summer

[SWBKCB]

Newcastle Airport should have links to America, China and India, report says - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/newcastle-airport-should-links-america-12547558)

http://www.transportforthenorth.com/wp-content/uploads/International-Connectivity-Report_websafe.pdf


Given the distance of the North East to other Northern airports, even with surface access improvements, journey times of over two hours and passenger leakage from the North to airports in Scotland and the South of England are likely.
Newcastle Airport, with its distinct catchment area therefore has a particularly important role within the North’s wider offer in providing international connectivity for businesses/entrepreneurs based in the North-East, Cumbria and Southern Scotland, as well as for potential inward investors and inbound visitors/outbound tourists.
Newcastle already provides global access via Dubai and has previously had a service to New York. We would expect Newcastle to expand its European
and global network, with the potential to add services to destinations such as those shown on the map over the period to 2050, as well as expanding its range of leisure routes. Figure 6 sets out new significant international business routes we would look for Newcastle to have regular services to, by 2050, under the transformational scenario. (Athens Atlanta Beijing Berlin Budapest Delhi Frankfurt Hamburg Hong Kong Istanbul Munich Oslo Stuttgart Toronto Toulouse Zurich)
For an area such as the North East, hub connections like Heathrow are also likely to remain important to provide a broader range of international connectivity without lengthy surface access journeys.
To achieve this growth Newcastle will need improvements to the A696 and associated junctions that connect it to the A1, regional rail access with an improved interchange at Newcastle Central Station and improvements to the existing Metro network and its rolling stock.

[AerRyan]

If the average Geordie had the mean income of a Londoner then yes, but for god sake some of these articles need a dose of reality.

[SWBKCB]

Maybe in 30 years time we'll all be a bit richer - I think 30 years ago a daily link to Dubai might have attracted similar comments!

[tigertanaka]

SWBKCB makes a fair point on Dubai but maybe some of the short haul destinations are not so far fetched.

Already operating: Berlin (but I guess business people would want a daily flight)
Realistic: Budapest, Frankfurt, Oslo
Possible: Athens, Hamburg, Istanbul, Munich, Stuttgart, Toulouse, Zurich
Wildest dreams: Atlanta
Pie in the sky: Beijing, Delhi, Hong Kong, Toronto

[NorthEasterner]

I could easily see Ryanair doing Frankfurt (Hahn/Main), Oslo (Gardermoen would be nice), Athens and maybe Hamburg.

I could see EZY (if willing to expand) doing Hamburg, Toulouse, Zurich.

Then EuroWings could do Munich and Stuttgart.

Istanbul unlikely but if anything, possibly Turkish Airlines.

If Ryanair don't do FRA or OSL, Lufthansa and Norwegian could pick up those.

[AerRyan]

Ryanair will fly to airports that it won't fly to currently just for Newcastle?

[NorthEasterner]

I'm under the impression Ryanair have operations at both Frankfurt Hahn and Main (From Late March), Athens and Hamburg? I thought Oslo TRF was a base, but it isn't, my mistake.

[NorthEasterner]

I could also see Ryanair or Jet2 doing Budapest, most likely Jet2.

[SWBKCB]

Remember - these are 2050 projections - most of the airlines discussed below didn't exist 30 years ago...

[NorthEasterner]

I can't see Ryanair going anytime soon. Jet2 could suffer if Brexit hits hard and prices go up for package holidays etc. Don't know about EZY. Don't think any of these airlines will give up without a fight.

[SWBKCB]

A quick and dirty list of UK airlines which have disappeared since 1987 - nowhere near complete...

Name Start End
Air 2000 1987 2004
Air Europe 1979 1991
bmibaby 2002 2012
BCAL 1970 1988
BMI 1938 2012
Caledonian 1988 2000
Dan-Air 1953 1992
First Choice 2004 2009
Flyglobespan 2002 2009
Flying Colours 1997 2000
GB Airways 1931 2008
Gill Airways 1969 2001
Go Fly 1998 2003
Maersk UK 1983 2003
Orion Airways 1979 1989
Tradewinds 1967 1990
XL Airways UK 1994 2008

[HH6702]

I can see Ryanair going head to head with jet2 on the Kraków

[NorthEasterner]

I believe quite a few airlines merged with others as they were failing due to LCC's. Some of those airlines could simply not keep up with the rapid pace of the industry, but with Easy and Ryanair being the most dominant LCC in Europe they don't have a lot to worry about especially Ryanair being the biggest airline in Europe carrying over 100 million passengers in 2016.

[SWBKCB]

Thirty years ago nobody had heard of an LCC is the point I'm making - who knows what the business will look like in 2050?

[HeartyMeatballs]

What the business will look like in 2050? I dread to think!

[GrahamK]

Just used NCL for the first time in a few years, pretty speedy going out and coming back in. Both the Wed am FR flight to DUB and this evenings flight back, absolute chocca.

[GrahamK]

Expecting some Ryanair news today perhaps?

[Travel Agent]

See the Ryanair learjet is on the ground at mo, so maybe so!

[NorthEasterner]

I've bee advised it's just engineering. Nothing else.

[jensdad]

Going back to that Transport for the North report: I really can't see the point of this sort of stuff. If someone ever decides to start services to China in the next 33 years it won't be because of this report.
Yes, it would be nice to have services to India, Toronto etc, but I think we could have worked that out for ourselves. Is there really any need to upgrade the A696 between the airport and the A1? Cracking bit of road. Nothing wrong with it. Sometimes a slight delay at the Kenton Bar roundabout but is that really hampering development of the airport? It amazes me that people get paid to write this stuff. Rant over :)

[SWBKCB]

You don't get investment without doing this sort of groundwork - hasn't done London any harm over the years.

Note you refer to the junction with the A1, Newcastle isn't even connected to the national motorway network! :ugh:

About time a bit of attention was paid and money spent.

[KNIEVEL77]

Well done to all at Newcastle Airport today, another full scale emergency with little or no disruption to other traffic.

[jensdad]

SWB, The A1(M) ends at White Mare Pool and the Western Bypass is essentially a motorway up to Swalwell, strictly speaking it isn't in Newcastle but as near as dammit. Other comparable airports (LBA, LPL, GLA, BRS, BFS)would love to have our metro access. Really can't see how Newcastle Airport is being held back by its ground transport links, I'm afraid.
Anyway, who knows where we'll be in 33 years' time? Personal Jetpacks I reckon :)

[SWBKCB]

Jensdad - I was making a general point about the level of infrastructure investment for the city/region, not just the airport.

Going west the dual carriageway stops at Hexham, going north at Morpeth and heading south we aren't connected to the national motorway network until south of Teesside.

[inOban]

? The A1(M) starts just S of the Angel of the North. There is a gap after Scotch Corner, but that is being completed at the moment?

[Jamesair]

What was the full scale emergency, yesterday?

[Heathrow Harry]

It's been dual carriageway from Tyneside south to Doncaster for years - it's just not "motorway" all the way

[Chesty Morgan]

Going west the dual carriageway stops at Hexham, going north at Morpeth and heading south we aren't connected to the national motorway network until south of Teesside.

Eh?! You are connected to the national motorway network......by the A1, A1M and the A69.

[SWBKCB]

I'll keep it simple - there isn't a motorway from Newcastle to another major city (and no, Durham doesn't count).

[inOban]

But only for a few more weeks. According to Wikipedia, the final section is to be completed this spring. Unless you are going to claim that 'proper' motorways must have six lanes.

[SWBKCB]

It would certainly help, as would any type of two-lane road going west or north.

[inOban]

I guess that Westminster would argue that any enhancement of the A1 North of Morpeth should be at least partly funded by Holyrood.

[jensdad]

Anyway, enough talk of boring ground transportation :) What was the emergency yesterday?

[EK77WNCL]

Belgian helicopter had some form of emergency and diverted to Newcastle. Another one came in on a rescue mission at about half 12

[Beatts]

https://twitter.com/NorthumbriaHeli/status/827465524481290240

[SWBKCB]

Gave the academy students something new to look at!

[KNIEVEL77]

It was reported that a Helicopter flying offshore abeam Newcastle had developed a MGB warning/problem and declared an emergency.
Over ten external emergency service vehicles were lined up on the Echo Apron awaiting its arrival.
As the helicopter transitioned to Foxtrot, it was followed by the Airport's own Emergency Vehicles as it landed safely.
I'm not sure the of the definition of a full scale emergency but if you are in a helicopter that devolps a MGB fault, it can be catastrophic presumably hence the number of external emergency vehicles standing by.
The airport did an excellent job keeping delays to a minimum whilst giving priority to the Helicopter.

[rpmac]

A1: Most of the A1 is dual carriageway in Scotland. It is south of Berwick (England) where the upgrade is needed.

[Jamesair]

January 17 statistics have now been published on the airport website with an increase in total movements (Jan 16 in brackets) 3412 (3352) and Pax 280,200 (239,917) a very healthy increase which should show the way to over 5m pax in 2017.

[HH6702]

Good news 21% increase

[Robert-Ryan]

Apologies if already reported but Royal Mail ceasing their Newcastle flights effective Monday 27th March.

[Beatts]

Wiki showing EasyJet Switzerland doing Geneva as well as Easyjet.

[HH6702]

What's the chance she of BA cityflyer to operate at weekend to sun routes like they do at STN last year and have added MAN and now BRS ??

Slim but you never know

[HeartyMeatballs]

I believe easySwiss have done some GVA rotations before. I think whenever there were 2 GVA flights on a Saturday, EZS operated on of them. It will likely be the case that a majority of them will be operated with NCL based aircraft.

[Beatts]

Cheers for the info. Another question, does anyone know why TOM keep positioning there AC between here and Dublin recently, noticed it a few weeks back too. Just aircraft swaps?

[EI-A330-300]

They operate 5 flights ex DUB between Friday and Sunday over winter so assume it's that. It used to come from MAN but didn't really pay much attention this season so I assume it's this.

[NorthEasterner]

Postioning flight, aircraft out to DUB to do routes and then back to NCL.

[LAX_LHR]

It seems Vueling NCL-BCN has been removed from sale this year.

[NorthEasterner]

If you are referring to the flights that recently didn't operate, this was due to Vueling suspending the route temporarily. They have now reinstated since Monday 13th Feb. There is a Vueling flight today at 1510.

[LAX_LHR]

No I'm referring to the fact there are no flights bookable after 26th March.

[N707ZS]

Does anyone know what the loads have been for the flights? Is it viable?

[NorthEasterner]

After the 26/03 when the service ends, the service then resumes on the 02/08/17.

[LAX_LHR]

The website gives the impression it resumes 2nd Aug but when you click into those dates it says flights not available, and all traces of the flights removed from GDS.

[HH6702]

Think vueling are having crew issues still so things being scaled back at the minute.
We may see it back next year.

Maybe Ryanair will set in on this route now and go head to head with easyJet

[GrahamK]

EZY to BCN
LS/TCX/TOM to REU
LS/FR to GIR

Still plenty of choice to the Barcelona area. Or fly via LHR/AMS/CDG and avoid MAN.

[EK77WNCL]

Huge shame to see it go! Hoped it would develop into something more in time, I wonder why it's being pulled with such short notice though, when the whole S17 and I think W17/18 have already been on sale

Has Vueling cut anything else if it is crewing issues?

[HH6702]

Vueling have cut LBA to BCN and Paris from EDI/LTN also seems to be a big scale back.
It's either IAG pulling the loss making routes are they having a lot of crewing issues still which rumours to believe.

** GOOD NEWS **
TCX have added HRG for summer 2017 late in the day but I'm sure they can fill it

[BAladdy]

At IAG's last Capital Markets Day back in November, the boss of VY stated that there are some markets that VY want to expand in so they will set up a route they will operate it for a certain period of time. If after that period of time they route fails to be profitable it will be discontinued. Think that's what happened with the routes dropped by VY in recent days.

[fa2fi]

I can't I'll miss Vueling, but anecdotally it seems easyJet put up a fight and still managed to fill seats. It's never that cheap neither when I've looked so perhaps there's scope to increase frequency or make it exclusively A320 (where the schedule allows). The new 186Y 32S is coming in a few weeks but that's not going to help with the reduction in capacity following Vueling's departure. My only hope is that Ryanair stay off the route and stick to Girona.

[NorthEasterner]

Why would it be bad if Ryanair come on to the BCN route? They can pick up where Vueling has left. And offer early afternoon (which Vueling did) instead of evenings like EasyJet do.

Vueling is not a big name up here compared to the likes of easyJet and Ryanair. Even Jet2 could give Barcelona a go but I doubt it.

[compton3bravo]

Vueling do not fly to/from Paris from Luton HH6702. They fly to Barcelona, Amsterdam, Zurich and Florence.

[HH6702]

Paris from EDI sorry

[Beatts]

AIR EUROPA to operate the PMI's again this year for Thomson. 15-05-17 17-09-17

[GrahamK]

January pax up 16.4%

CAA provisional stats

Heathrow -5%
Aberdeen -24%
Belfast Int +9%
Bristol (no figures)
Cardiff +15%
Exeter +1%
Southampton Flat

Brussels -5%
Copenhagen +24%
Paris CDG +2%
Berlin 2822 average 108 pax per flight, not sure on breakdown of A319/320s used
Dusseldorf +1% (double the frequency of SXF yet has less pax!)
cORK +102%
Dublin +39%
Amsterdam +5%
Alicante +29%
Barcelona +36%
Malaga +98%
Lanzarote +82%
Fuerteventura +54%
Las Palmas +116%
Tenerife +32%
Stavanger -12%
Geneva -7%
Gdansk 2565 75.4% loads
Warsaw 2630 77.3% loads
Wroclaw 2639 86.7% loads
Dubai +6% 79.5% loads

[ATNotts]

Berlin 2822 average 108 pax per flight, not sure on breakdown of A319/320s used
Dusseldorf +1% (double the frequency of SXF yet has less pax!)

But I bet DUS had at least double the revenue per seat as SXF. Two completely different markets. DUS serves the Rhein-Ruhr industrial area, whilst Berlin, although the capital is still primarily a leisure destination.

[Beatts]

Flights from Newcastle to Barcelona: Airline switch sees bargain trips for less than £10 - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/flights-newcastle-barcelona-one-airline-12680279)

[NCL-TRC]

Nothing more than a marketing ploy for a route that was already announced serval months prior to Vueling pulling the route anyway

[EK77WNCL]

I wonder if we'll be hearing any more on any new routes with Ryanair for this winter? They've been bringing out a lot of other European routes recently

[jensdad]

More high-quality, objective reporting by the Chronicle there. That Pulitzer surely can't be long now.

[ash666]

I wonder if Ryanair will soon be doing London Aberdeen?

[EK77WNCL]

Unless brexit flushes LON-EDI/GLA/BFS down the toilet, LON-ABZ and hopefully LON-NCL would seem to be logical next additions to me if domestic is proving worthwhile

[ash666]

Not sure if you got my meaning.

I meant calling Aberdeen a "London" airport in the same way that Barcelona Girona is a con making people think Girona is anywhere near Barcelona.

[GrahamK]

May see more. Seen a the airports route development guy returning on the same FR flight from DUB recently. Who knows. MAD is continuing for winter as announced

[canberra97]

ash666

Girona airport to the centre of Barcelona is 58 miles taking one hour and ten minutes by bus, the same distance between the centre of Milan and BGY.

The distance between London and Aberdeen is 542 miles and nine hours driving so obviously not as close as Barcelona is to Girona hence why 'not sure you got my meaning' because know one would have been aware of what you meant by just typing 'London Aberdeen?'

[EK77WNCL]

Does anyone else see the new Brussels Airlines/Eurowings partnership, and addition of Superjet's as an opportunity?

Bmir transfer the route to Brussels Airlines on the Superjet, ideally x13 weekly. Seat count goes up, seat cost goes down, fares go down. BM move the -135 to x13/14 weekly Newcastle-Frankfurt with Lufthansa codeshare and take things from there?

I'm also wondering if Cobalt might be a flop, Ryanair have run out of ideas and Jet2 have stalled (easyjet stalled last decade)

On the Flybe front, Southampton is getting an extra daily this year, could the second Exeter rotation come back?

[Jamesair]

The February statistics are on the Airport website .

PAX 287,609 (256,120) an increase of 12.3%

Domestic 86,125 (92,148)
IT........... 28,836 (27,506)
International...170,380 (134,401)
Others.....2268 (2065)

[HeartyMeatballs]

So, despite Brexit, NCL have managed a 12.3% increase in passenger numbers. Surely there must be some kind of error.

[canberra97]

It's probably because Brexit or rather Article 50 hasn't been implemented yet.

[HeartyMeatballs]

Oh I see! Thought as much. Maybe someone should have told the airport not to bother expanding the car park saying as passenger numbers will crash post Brexit.

[long_final]

But the £ to € has been negatively affected, which doesn't seem to have put people off, especially when we consider the international increase. I suppose the All Inclusive types who never leave the hotel/take any Euros with them will be oblivious though.
It does seem odd that an airport that's had near enough zero growth or expansion since the start of recession around 07-08 is off to such a flying start to the year. Surely it can't all be down to FR.

[toon22]

... I think you'll find it is all down to Ryanair. First year of Polish routes plus higher frequency on Sun routes, then a lowering of fares by Jet2 and EZY in response - and you have your answer. Unfortunately, most other routes going nowhere.

[HeartyMeatballs]

https://s18.postimg.org/4ecr5gi95/IMG_3174.png

Maybe these are boom times. The calm before the storm. Afterall after Brexit weren't we told we may have to pay to get into the EU. Ryanair have threatened to pull out all UK based aircraft. Happily all FR flights to NCL are based abroad. It's just a shame no passengers will be travelling on them.

[TSR2]

What a load of scaremongering tripe.

[HeartyMeatballs]

Indeed. Spending money means you don't get as good value abroad. I'm still waiting for the rest of Project Fear to come true.

Interestingly, as Ryanair 'pivot' away from the UK (despite announcing some two dozen new UK/EU routes in recent weeks and adding two aircraft to STN since Brexit) and remove all aircraft from the UK, easyJet & Jet2.com are committing 10 aircraft between LTN & STN in addition to the ever expanding LGW base.

[ATNotts]

But the £ to € has been negatively affected, which doesn't seem to have put people off, especially when we consider the international increase. I suppose the All Inclusive types who never leave the hotel/take any Euros with them will be oblivious though.
It does seem odd that an airport that's had near enough zero growth or expansion since the start of recession around 07-08 is off to such a flying start to the year. Surely it can't all be down to FR.
Your average Joe doesn't have a clue on the value of sterling against anything when they book their trip, which many of them will have done 6 - 12 months ago. They only find out the exchange rate when they buy their Euros, or look at the credit card bill when they get home.

It's not so much the here and now airports and operators need to worry about, it's potentially this summer; but more likely winter 2017/8 and summer 2018, as whatever sterling is doing then, and it might indeed be doing very well (is that a formation of flying pigs I've just seen?) some people may base their holiday plans on how hard an unexpected hit they took on their wallets this year. Forward bookings to the USA suggest people are already doing this, but I imagine there's a certain "Trump factor" in play there too.

That horrendous word "staycation" will I expect rear it's ugly head in the media later this year.

[inOban]

It will even be interesting this summer. The rapid growth in winter traffic is being sustained, I assume, by our senior citizens (like me) who are the only demographic whose disposable income has been rising while that of our children is stagnant at best.

[Jamesair]

ISLE OF MAN

With CityWing announcing it is ceasing operations following problems with the operator of its services this will mean the end of the IOM -NCL service.

Could this be a niche route for Eastern to fill?

[HeartyMeatballs]

Why? ManxWing will be along is a few weeks no doubt.

No seriously. Eastern could make some money out of this. Extended the CWL to Valley as a W through CWL could work or even NCL-VLY-CWL-VLY-NCL in addition to a few IOM rotations a week. Who knows.

[Beatts]

Eastern to start the route tomorrow, no hanging about!! (13thhttp://i63.tinypic.com/14lh7bq.jpg

[EK77WNCL]

Wow that was fast! Great to see Eastern back serving NCL-IOM, makes me feel nostalgic! Based on the flight times it's got to be an NCL based aircraft they're using.

Fingers crossed it goes well for them and maybe they'll consider an IOM base to cover the rest of Citywing's routes.

I do worry that daily could be overkill though, especially at £99 one way. £49 maybe (I'm sure that's what Citywing charged) but Eastern almost always seem to price themselves out of the market except when high yield business is involved.

Good news anyway!

[jensdad]

Citywing's fares did indeed start at £49 each way. My next trip to the island might well be on the ferry.

[jensdad]

On a more positive note, does this mean that Belfast City is once again served from Newcastle, albeit via the Isle of Man?

[EK77WNCL]

I would assume so... Eastern do offer connections on a lot of routes, but at a cheapest return fare of £396, over 2 hours flying time, a connection and poor business timed flights... It's probably cheaper and more convenient to take easyJet to BFS, hire yourself a decent car, take the family for 2 nights at the Europa and make a weekend of it.

Unless the north east is full of highly paid enthusiasts, willing to part with their money on the basis that they'll get full frills service and a more convenient experience, all while flying on quite a rare aircraft... We can probably count the annual NCL-BHD-NCL passengers on one hand

[Jamesair]

The prize in all of this must be Isle of Man - Belfast City......Eastern have to get an a/c over there so why not position in from NCL which has a steady if small core of passengers to the IOM. Win, win situation

[Beatts]

https://www.facebook.com/nclairport/posts/1256396154442685

The airport has finally published its new Arrival procedures which are in consultation now and have all the documents on the website. It's been a long time coming.

[VentureGo]

(Copied in Belfast City thread)
This morning's flights cancelled!
NCL-IOM (G-MAJY) operated as schedule, but aircraft remains on ground at IOM with its IOM-BHD-IOM cancelled. - Not sure if a/c has gone tech. Too soon to say whether IOM-NCL will operated as scheduled this afternoon

[SWBKCB]

G-MAJY landing back from IOM at 14.15

[EK77WNCL]

Just had a look on the Eastern website, they're offering £86 one way NCL-BHD.

I correct my prediction last night, there may be *some* people who would consider paying £170 for Eastern's service and the convenience of BHD despite the IOM stop. I wonder if they could test the water for bringing back NCL-BHD. I'm not sure what kind of high level/high yield (if any) business traffic exists but they might be able to make a go of BHD for high end passengers better than Flybe did.

The only problem would be... Would they offer £80 flights to Belfast? Or would they be extortionate. I don't think anyone would pay more than £100 unless short notice.

[HH6702]

Gets earlier every year!!!

Thomas Cook summer 2018 now on sale

[EK77WNCL]

I assume it'll be adjusted over the next few months though, and will be finalised by W17/18. Hopefully we might see something nice from them

[MATELO]

Arrival and Approach Procedure Consultation - Newcastle Airport (http://www.newcastleairport.com/approach-consultation)

[HH6702]

Thomas Cook Airlines UK - 17 new routes, seven new own-brand hotels for Summer 2018 on sale (http://thomascookairlinesuk-newsroom.condor.com/en/int/news-article/17-new-routes-seven-new-own-brand-hotels-for-summer-2018-on-sale/)


Only thing new for us looks like a Thursday flight to CFU now 3x weekly as HRG is new for this summer.

Poor compared to BRS and BHX

[GrahamK]

And it looks like EZY have dropped LPA fow W17/18

[HH6702]

Maybe waiting to see if Ryanair come onto LPA first

[Heathrow Harry]

"Gets earlier every year!!!

Thomas Cook summer 2018 now on sale"

You can always hope someone will lend you cash for 18 months at zero per cent interest rate... costs nothing to try after all

[Jamesair]

NCL has now disappeared from the Cobalt Aero website

[P330]

Don't know if the mix of aircraft is changing or they are just swapping around aircraft within the base, but the Thursday Jet2 to Reus was a 733 and is now a 738. Reduction in 733 operations maybe?

[GrahamK]

3 x 733, 4 x 738 this year

[Beatts]

Yep. All the QC's are apparently to be gone from this year and rumours are we will be a full 800 base next year with 8 based.

[NorthEasterner]

Today and over the next week will see 4 new Ryanair routes starting up, daily PMI, 4 weekly FAO (M,W,F,Sun), 2 weekly MAD (M & F) and 2 weekly GRO (Tue & Sat).

In addition of the Winter routes being kept on with an increase of TFS to 3 weekly (Tue, Fri, Sun) and increases from last summer of ALC to daily (up from 5 weekly) and AGP is 5 weekly (Tue, Wed, Thu, Sat, Sun) (up from 4 weekly).

Expect a bit of noise being made tomorrow about the new MAD route! ... seeing they did so at the Boro v Man U match :)

12 routes in total with 52 weekly departures.

[Beatts]

Flybe doing a set of three flights to Charles De Gaulle on the Embraer 170, Effective 2017-10-29 through 2017-10-31.

[EK77WNCL]

Is that to do with the changeover from Cityjet to Hop!? Perhaps Hop! have aircraft shortages? Or is it just a scheduled charter with Flybe?

[ash666]

Did a plane with a different flightpath and 4 propeller engines land at NCL around 10.30am today?

[261_p]

Ash66: A400M training approaches

[ash666]

Thanks for that :ok: