NEWCASTLE - 8

[EK77WNCL]

INeedTheFull90, you can add BRU to your hubs list and SBWKCB, you can add BRU to your limited hubs list. NCL's hubs can be broken down into categories:

LHR, AMS, CDG, they serve everything, short, medium and long haul, North, South, East and West.

DXB, short, medium and Long haul, predominantly South and East except the near east/Iran/Ethiopia/Uganda etc. you get the gist and EWR which will serve predominantly South and West, except maybe Bermuda?

DUB, transatlantic only

CPH, BRU, limited, very very limited, although connections are available. I may be wrong but I'd assume that BRU could, or should be quite good for African connections.

DUS utterly useless

This is a very crude map but it shows how IST/DXB could coexist, Great Circle Mapper (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=1000nm%40IST,+1000nm%40DXB) it shows the destinations available and the direction traveled within 1000nm of each. Although it wouldn't bother me so much, some people won't book to travel back on themselves, i.e NCL-DXB-AMM and would as such prefer NCL-IST-AMM, for example.

[ATNotts]

EK77WNCL

CPH, BRU, limited, very very limited, although connections are available. I may be wrong but I'd assume that BRU could, or should be quite good for African connections.

DUS utterly useless

I think that's a bit harsh, particularly on CPH - here you can connect to countless (well you could count them if you had the time / inclination) Scandinavian destinations few of which are served directly from any UK airport.

At DUS Germanwings does offer interline facilities, though I'm not sure if that's just on 4U services, and again good connections are also available at BRU to many European business centres - not so sure about Africa these days, SABENA used to serve ex Belgian colonial destinations but I haven't checked on what SN Brussels offer is.

If you're a small or medium sized regional (non London) airport then these hub links are vital, whether or not you have BA through LHR and if I were NCL management I'd be looking to attract LH to FRA or MUC operating at time that allow good connections to principal business centres. I wouldn't, frankly, be so bothered with the likes of ZRH and MAD at least to start with, and frankly, Istanbul would be way down the list of priorities.

[SWBKCB]

I think the point about CPH is the timings e.g. NCL-CPH lands at 22.00 local, so not much scope for outbound connections unless you night stop.

Brussels Airlines African destinations are as follows, so not too shabby!

Benin - Cotonou
Angola - Luanda
Burkina Faso - Ouagadougou
Burundi - Bujumbura
Cameroon - Douala, Yaoundé
D.R. Congo - Kinshasa
Egypt - Cairo
Gambia - Banjul
Ghana - Accra
Guinea - Conakry
Ivory Coast - Abidjan
Kenya - Nairobi
Liberia - Monrovia
Morocco - Agadir, Casablanca, Marrakech
Rwanda - Kigali
Senegal - Dakar
Sierra Leone - Freetown
South Africa - Cape Town, Johannesburg
Togo - Lomé
Uganda - Entebbe

[EK77WNCL]

I stand somewhat corrected, yeah I know what you mean about CPH, they do offer a lot of connections, especially if you intend to go to Scandinavia/Northern Europe, but for Asia or America or even Europe, due to the necessary night stop (I don't actually know what time CPH's long haul departures leave) and higher cost, they aren't a big player. I'd say confidently that 90-95% of passengers on NCL-CPH are O&D. If the flight continued getting stronger and they throw a morning CRJ our way a couple of days a week, opening up connections then I can see success. Although I'd hope for an OSL service before a 2nd CPH service. Given their history though, I'd say that both are equally unlikely, I'd rather hold on to the service we have at the minute.

I had never quite realised Brussels Airlines' network was so vast! In that case, if all of those destinations are available as connections from NCL, I've underestimated BRU as well! and with 3 daily flights there must be connection opportunities...

I disagree with IST being at the bottom of the list but a FRA hub route (i.e LH) and MUC/MXP p2p (i.e EZY) are definitely above it in my opinion.

[CabinCrewe]

Wheres the NCL CAA stats? Everyone elses in. EK GLA up again, EDI DOH thankfully better than last month. With UA starting, interesting to see GLA was the busiest of the smaller EWR 757 UK regional routes.

[EK77WNCL]

I was going to post them today but not updated yet. I will get them up as soon as I can (unless beaten to it)

Lets see if EK gets anywhere near my December prediction of 19,569 and utimately 2014 prediction of 217,257 - 217,932

[GrahamK]

Bear inb mind, EK was non op on Xmas day so total available seats was 25680

[GrahamK]

December figs:

Brussels 1860
Copenhagen 1574 +36%
Paris CDG 13880 +19%
Dusseldorf 3274 +12%
Cork 1274 -23%
Dublin 15014 +9%
Amsterdam 30796 +2%
Stavanger 1363 -17%
Dubai 18808 +5%

Gatwick 8559 +39%
Heathrow 42240 +10%

4.51m pax for 2014, up 2.2%

[EK77WNCL]

This growth is taking sooooooo loooooooongggggggggg.... This next 500,000 is going to be a struggle I can tell.

Emirates fell short of my prediction in November and December (predicted 37357 at 9.5% growth, actual was 35837 for the 2 months), so for the year EK stands at:

Jan: 18,351 +18
Feb: 16,980 +21
Mar: 18,517 +5
Apr: 20,211 +22 (first month +20,000)
May: 14,382 +13
Jun: 14,693 -7
Jul: 18,726 +9
Aug: 20,831 +12
Sep: 19,675 +3
Oct: 17,534 -1
Nov: 17,761 +5
Dec: 18,808 +5

Total year: 216,469
595 pax per day (594.7), 297 pax per flight (297.35) which gives year end load factors of:
2 class 77W - (297.35/427) = 69.64%
3 class 77W(V1) - (297.35/346) = 85.94%
3 class 77W(V2) - (297.35/352) = 84.47%

So a rough average estimate would be that for 2014 the load factor was around: 77.42% ((85.205+69.64)/2)

I'm pretty impressed with that I must say.

[pallan]

The load factor was 69.64% based on what was sellable (2 class 77W)

[VickersVicount]

69% isnt exactly setting the heather alight. Long way off any frequency upgauge. Consistent rather than impressive id say.

[EK77WNCL]

Yes based on what was on sale 69.64% but not based on what was actually scheduled. NCL still gets a lot of 3 class aircraft operating. Would/could it not make sense for them to sell first from NCL? Any seats they do sell are extra revenue and load factors are pushed up, although F pax probably expect a lounge.

[pallan]

A 2 class 77W is scheduled daily, 3 class a/c may have been operated a lot but this doesn't bring the load factor up as EK sell it as a 428 seater 2-class a/c every day and a load factor of 69.64% is what they in particular will look at; it's still a relatively good figure, just not 77.4.

With regards to selling First Class, I would imagine this would need more crew, better meals with lots of choice (EK's F menu seems to be huge) along with other benefits which and if only say 1 or 2 passengers a day book it then it probably isn't worth it.

[GrahamK]

They would also need the clientele that can actually afford to pay for it as well. Unfortunately NCL and the NE is still pretty much the poorest area in the UK. But, near enough 70% loads year round is not too bad (though not great as VV points out).

Growth will continue though so it's not all doom and gloom.

FWIW, CDG seems to be doing extremely well, as well as AMS. Still plenty of room for growth on CPH, BRU and DUS though.

[EK77WNCL]

Regarding BRU, I think BM must be confident with it to be going 3 daily, they probably get quite a lot of last minute bookings paying the higher last minute fares, probably in their equivalent "business class" too. Just making an educated guess based on BRU's clientele, one lives across the road.

And regarding EK selling F, do they need more crew? I thought it kind of boiled down to "an amount" crew for "an amount" of seats, whether they are filled or not. But I suppose it's for the levels of service in First

[pwalhx]

The ratio of crew/passenger varies between classes and between airlines.

Investigations would suggest for example in First on the A380 Emirates have 4 crew for 14 seats

[Lord Spandex Masher]

But there is a minimum of one cabin crew per fifty seats.

[EK77WNCL]

360/50 = 7.2
427/50 = 8.54

I don't know why but I'm convinced EK have somewhere in the range of 12-13 FA's onboard... I'll have to count next time I'm on but they have more than 8/9. They may well need more crew for First class but when I flew in F (by accident) on NCL-DXB (A332) there were 2/3 spare crew up front not doing much.

[SWBKCB]

the 50:1 ratio is a legal minimum linked to the ability to evacuate the aircraft, not the level of customer service - clearly if you offering more than basic all economy you'll need more.

[EKCH2730]

I stand somewhat corrected, yeah I know what you mean about CPH, they do offer a lot of connections, especially if you intend to go to Scandinavia/Northern Europe, but for Asia or America or even Europe, due to the necessary night stop (I don't actually know what time CPH's long haul departures leave) and higher cost, they aren't a big player. I'd say confidently that 90-95% of passengers on NCL-CPH are O&D.

I can say that you are way off with your O&D numbers for the CPH route - for 2014 the transfer rate at the CPH end was 52% (48% O&D). However the arrival flight at CPH has a lower transfer rate compared to the departure flight due to the late arrival into CPH at 22.00. The late arrival however still makes it possible to transfer to destinations like ARN, OSL, BLL, AAL, PLQ, POZ, GDN.

[Jamesair]

One further thought on the EK route. Apart from the pax load factor I understand its the good cargo loads they get that make this operation well worthwhile.

[EK77WNCL]

The cargo on NCL-DXB has blown everyone away by all/most accounts, and has made it's own market based around the flights, particularly NE-Oz.

EKCH2730, thank you very much for correcting me, I've never understood the 22:00 arrival but I suppose it still works for businessmen, just means they spend a night, do a day of work and fly back the next evening. Where did you get the transfer information from? Is there any way of finding the specific numbers of passengers flying to specific destinations? But I appreciate now that I neglected to look at EU connections I was focusing on long haul. CPH is definitely valuable for the connections you mention due to NCL's lack of service to them.

[SWBKCB]

United Airlines boss can't wait for Newcastle to New York flight to begin - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/united-airlines-boss-cant-wait-8478411)

The expected publicity stuff, but it does say:

UK and Ireland Managing Director (sales), Bob Schumacher saying he hopes to put the region on the map for Americans...

...“We’re very excited as a company and we’re very satisfied with early booking levels and the noise coming out of the market, and the interest from the public and the travel trade."

[N707ZS]

Notes from a local rag

Chancellor's warning over future of Newcastle Airport (From The Northern Echo) (http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11738151.Chancellor_s_warning_over_future_of_Newcastle_Airpo rt/?ref=mr)

[NCL-TRC]

It would appear that for Winter 15 DUB is going to 1 daily, with the evening flight being dropped.

[Beafer]

If it affects Newcastle what hope will DTV have?
I see DTV MP Phil Wilson is mentioned, but the chancellor won't reply to the Labour party letters from way back in November, so he can't do anything as usual! As much use as a chocolate fire guard. :ugh:
Chancellor's warning over future of Newcastle Airport (From The Northern Echo) (http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11738151.Chancellor_s_warning_over_future_of_Newcastle_Airpo rt/)

[HH6702]

Good news about the news coming from United and our New York route.
Let's hope we get some more news later this year of the route returning for longer period

Aer Lingus. Sad to see the evening flight gone but maybe it will go on sale later in the year. If pax are using the service for onwards connections do we need the evening flight ? Can pax go west using the morning flight only?

Maybe Ryanair may go twice daily certain days??

Flybe may start Dublin?


I know this is a long way off but if United are happy and making money do you think we could get another destination in the USA?

What's the chances of us getting a weekly charter service to places like Las Vegas?

[Jamesair]

This summers Aer Lingus flights showed just 1 x daily for a period before it was subsequently amended to 2x daily, so I don't think we should read too much into it at this stage.

[skyman771]

What's the chances of us getting a weekly charter service to places like Las Vegas?

I'd say NIL & unnecessary! Many reasons :- Costs, & would involve a fuel stop, so why not simply fly United through EWR ?
As a holiday destination, would there be the demand for more or less full "Y"?, & again if there was, then presumably even more likely the operator could block book United...
Then one could simply book one of the currently available options from MAN access by road or rail.:E

[EK77WNCL]

Hahahahaha, this is going to be the next thing now us spotters have finally got New York ;) all I'll say is, UA do well at MAN and EDI, and have IAD and ORD respectively, among other US airlines. But no... Not yet is what I'd say.

Although I do think I have an amazing idea, to stop NCL (and others) losing out if we give Scotland more (which we will), one of the following should happen, in order of preference:
1. Cut APD to all airports with under 20,000,000 PPA (just clinches top spot, simply due to the complete and utter selfishness that it would help NCL win a bit over MAN)
2. Cut APD alltogether!!!
3. Cut APD to every airport outside the home counties... I quite like that one too.

[GrahamK]

So it's official, APD is being devolved tOo Scotland. This could mean that NCL will lose out to EDI and GLA. Of course, the airlines may not pass on any savings to the customer, and thus nothing will change.

Thoughts?

[All names taken]

Yeah......anger mainly
Prescription charges, tuition fees and now APD.
This will hit a part of the 'so-called United' Kingdom - the North East - most of all. Totally unjust and unfair.

So I pay my taxes.....so that Scottish people don't have to.
Someone somewhere is seriously taking the pi$$

[GrahamK]

Scottish people pay their taxes too! In fact we pay more tax per head than anywhere else in the UK!

[fa2fi]

Yeah and you also get WAY more back than England! Let's not forget that.

Good ole' Barnett formula!

[GrahamK]

Fair enough ;)

So, getting back on topic, will we see droves of Geordies head off to use EDI or GLA?

[Richard Taylor]

Not that old myth again. :rolleyes:

So what you are saying is my taxes head to the Treasury in London, never to be seen again. If they don't go there, where do they go then?

Didn't the NE have the chance of a Regional Assembly which could have given you the chance of Powers but it was rejected.

Difference is, Scotland isn't a region no matter how many people down south refer to it as such.

You can thank your politicians for panicking as the D-Day came closer with the vote too close to call at that time. Now, we expect what was promised - no more, no less.

You can deal with it with your vote at the forthcoming GE.

[anothertyke]

Exactly what I was wondering GrahamK. What proportion of NCL's traffic is Band B? I can't really see there being much leakage of Band A traffic at £13 per adult and half that per child per round trip. But if Ms Sturgeon and co halved the Band B rate (£69) and that got passed through 100% then you might be talking. Even then coming back from Dubai or New York with 120 miles to do over Carter Bar would not be everyone's cup of tea.

[fa2fi]

The NE Regional Assembly was a joke. I'll thought out and information about it was scarce.

It's just a shame the oil price crash didn't happen six months earlier. Would have been a clear NO vote with zero effort required.

Never understood all the anti English sentiment North of the Border. After all we don't get free prescriptions, university or elderly social care. And we will have to pay full APD and public spending per head is less than Scotland. Yet I see nothing but hatred. Despite me being half Scottish and half English I've picked up on it since I was about four years old.

We didn't ask for Scotland to be part of the UK and to be honest a lot of people wanted them to go independent. I personally did. The English also have NO representation in government and are deprived a national identity.
All in all life ain't all that bad North of the border.

Anyway back on topic. I often use EDI but that's only because I get a free rail pass and I use edi for schedule reasons. Not cost. I can't see myself ever going to Glasgow unless it was long haul and at least £100 per head cheaper.

[anothertyke]

I suppose for Carlisle and W Cumbria the choices would be a bit closer.

[GrahamK]

anothertyke

Indeed, and already you see travel agents pushing GLA and MAN over NCL flights in Carlisle

[anothertyke]

Just looked up the CAA origin destination data. First one I came to was 2005. Northumberland and Cumbria sent 37,000 to EDI/GLA, sort of as expected. But Scotland sent 133,000 to NCL, far more than I would have expected.

[HH6702]

To be fair this is a worry for the northeast however I think we need to see what happens as I bet that the full amount doesn't get passed into the passenger

Just look at the price if oil - have air fares reduced? NO
So APD scrapped - savings passed into passengers let's wait and see

I think the margins in which the airlines make will increase.

What maybe will happy though is growth will be more in Scotland as it will be cheaper than ncl for margins!!

Yes this next 500,000 people or ncl will take some doing

[Travel Agent]

With regards to oil you probably won't see a huge difference at first as many airlines hedge so have bought fuel in for a set amount of time. The only airline that has really scored has been Monarch as when they were having problems before the takeover they had not been able to hedge....

[HH6702]

But the oil is cheapest in 5 years (2009)
Newer aircraft etc we should see prices fall over the next year or so but we won't

[EK77WNCL]

HH6702, I agree, you have the right idea, maybe not loads of geordies heading north but more than likely airlines having less faith in NCL and thus NCL will fall behind in terms of potential for expansion or new airlines.

Very tempted to comment on David Cameron's picture of him at Edinburgh Airport bigging them up today... Might bite my tongue for a bit.

[Fairdealfrank]

If it affects Newcastle what hope will DTV have?
I see DTV MP Phil Wilson is mentioned, but the chancellor won't reply to the Labour party letters from way back in November, so he can't do anything as usual! As much use as a chocolate fire guard.
Thought it was just that the revenue from APD at Scots airports would be handed over to the Scottish Executive to spend. Got that wrong.


Although I do think I have an amazing idea, to stop NCL (and others) losing out if we give Scotland more (which we will), one of the following should happen, in order of preference:
1. Cut APD to all airports with under 20,000,000 PPA (just clinches top spot, simply due to the complete and utter selfishness that it would help NCL win a bit over MAN)
2. Cut APD alltogether!!!
3. Cut APD to every airport outside the home counties... I quite like that one too.
Nonsense, only 2. makes any sense.


So it's official, APD is being devolved tOo Scotland. This could mean that NCL will lose out to EDI and GLA. Of course, the airlines may not pass on any savings to the customer, and thus nothing will change.

Thoughts?
The aggravation, hassle, time and cost of flying from EDI instead of NCL (all other things being equal) make it unlikely in most cases.


We didn't ask for Scotland to be part of the UK and to be honest a lot of people wanted them to go independent. I personally did. The English also have NO representation in government and are deprived a national identity.
All in all life ain't all that bad North of the border.
Nor did the Scots, it was a stitch-up by the establishments/parliaments in both England and Scotland at the time (1707). The people did not have a say. Best decision made as it turned out.

[VentureGo]

This morning's EK35 operated by A6-ECB (777-31H) has diverted back to Dubai base - Replacement a/c is A6-EMF (777-21H ) - which is 18.3 years old.
Now due in to NCL at 17.35 ( 6 Hours late)

[Jamesair]

It looks like NCL will qualify for the above fund to encourage new routes from regional airports which starts this year and will continue for three years with £56m available over 3 years. £17.5m will be available this year.

Regional airports with pax numbers under 5m qualify and have to make submissions.

[Suzeman]

One further thought on the EK route. Apart from the pax load factor I understand its the good cargo loads they get that make this operation well worthwhile.

The cargo on NCL-DXB has blown everyone away by all/most accounts, and has made it's own market based around the flights, particularly NE-Oz.

One thing helping to boost cargo on the EK NCL flight will be the need for MAN freight to be frequently sent elsewhere with a 777 service since the A380 started. As MAN gets a second daily A380 replacing a 777 from next Sunday, watch out for more freight heading your way...

[EK77WNCL]

That's why EK needs an A380 900NC (neo combi)

But anyway, A6-EMF is nice to see! I'd have given my right arm to be on that flight today but oh well.

More cargo will definitely be nice to see and hopefully some of that money will go to good use, either to help UA (if they need it) or convince someone to do some new routes.

[GrahamK]

Suzeman, presumably a lot of that will have went through BHX as well. Although I believe LHR cargo overspill has been sent on the NCL flight at times. Cargo doesnt mind where it flies from I suppose :}

Oh, and the 77W turned back to DXB due to an apparent cracked windscreen (FO side).

[LiamNCL]

APD or not i will never travel from GLA or EDI no matter what prices they offer

[nigel osborne]

Interesting looking at the Qatar Air website yesterday, when you click on their route map there seems to be a purple circle where NCL is.

There is no line showing a route and no other info.Was wondering has this been on their map for a while or new ?


Nigel

[GrahamK]

Nigel,

oneWorld codeshare via LHR?

[SWBKCB]

That's why EK needs an A380 900NC (neo combi)

Are new combi aircraft legal outside the exemptions such as Northern Canada/Alaska?

Route Development Fund - has this been clarified now? There was some confusion as to who was eligible when first announced.

[nighthawk117]

Are new combi aircraft legal outside the exemptions such as Northern Canada/Alaska?

I believe it is now a lot more difficult to certify a combi than it has been in the past, due to increased regulations regarding fire prevention. As a result, certification is now prohibitively expensive, and therefore a combi is going to be very unlikely in the future.

[EK77WNCL]

It'll take a lot of weighing up definitely but if they did an 800NC you then have a 77W thrashing frame, same-ish pax, more cargo and possibly more range (higher MTOW and more attractive too due to less seats than A388 so easier to fill) and then the 900NC would be an "everything" thrashing plane if they made it long enough to carry the same pax as current A380's but with the extra cargo, something like 15 pallets on the main deck. Emirates would lap them up and I'm sure they would become a more attractive aircraft. Extremely idealistic but up against the 77X it will have to be really special, like Dubai-West coast USA with full pax, full cargo year round.

What exactly will this development fund do btw?

[Jamesair]

SWBKCB

An announcement was made last Thursday following negotiations with the EU to clarify and set the new pax limit for Regional Airports (5m) to qualify for the grants.

Strangely enough the Scottish Parliament has quietly withdrawn its own Route Development Fund.

[Jamesair]

It means that completely new routes may qualify for a subsidy at the development stage. I presume the regional airport has to make a submission to the Fund to obtain the grant. Examples could be say, Oslo, Stockholm, Zurich. Business routes and routes to attract inward tourism would probably qualify.

It can only be good for the airport and area.

[EK77WNCL]

Does this count for any new route? i.e if EZY wanted to base 4 aircraft and open up Munich, Milan etc. Would they qualify? Or is it just aimed at foreign flag carriers on purely business/hub routes?

[10 DME ARC]

A380 and belly cargo, I believe one of the biggest mistakes Airbus did with the A380 was not having enough space for belly cargo! Its the bread and butter of airline's these days! Yes NCL receives a lot of cargo from LHR for EK, and as MAN changes to more A380 I guess cargo will come from there as well!

[LiamNCL]

If cargo is so good from NCL and will only increase with more A380s to other UK ports , Would Emirates not rather add a Skycargo flight or just add a 2nd Daily and include whatever passengers they can

[CabinCrewe]

Neither cargo capacity or pax loads are full so there is currently no need for either. MAN would likely see Cargo dedicated services before anyone.

[HH6702]

I would say it is for the route so it doesn't mean new airline or not so yes Easyjet and 4th based aircraft could help.

As long as they don't give it to Ryanair who after the 3 years will pull the routes.

Hopefully spend it wisely

[EK77WNCL]

I'm not confident we'll actually see any new routes come out of the funding, although I really hope we do.

And I think eventually when GLA/BHX/NCL get A380's (wishful thinking) they might put a 77F into EMA, already being a cargo hub etc. And the point has already been made, cargo doesn't care where it flies from.

[INeedTheFull90]

So long as it provides local jobs then I'm all for it. Don't see why my tax pounds should subsidise some fly by night foreign airline.

[EK77WNCL]

I'm sorry but that's ridiculous, these "fly by night foreign airlines" do actually create jobs at the airport, one more new airline probably creates more than 1 new based frame from a loco.

But we would be much better off with no:
Aer Lingus
Air France
Emirates
Germanwings
KLM
SAS
United
Wideroe

Definitely no need for Air Malta, Onur Air and Balkans Holidays flying for tour operators, or Ryanair offering cheap Irish getaways or Air Europa, and Pegasus offering Thomson etc. extra uplift. Not to mention that ridiculous Spanish outfit bringing in cargo every night.

Lest we not forget that TUI are a German multinational company, Thomas Cook were previously majority owned by the Germans and British Airways, our beloved national carrier are also a founding member of a British-Spanish multinational company, registered in Spain and creating jobs in Spain

I apologise again but I reiterate, that is a ridiculous statement! Times have changed!

[canberra97]

EK77WNCL

Your at it again aren't you:ugh:

Thomas Cook was and has NEVER been majority owned by British Airways, the Germans yes.

You can be very annoying you know that don't you!

[johnnychips]

Canberra - I think he meant to insert what is called an 'Oxford Comma' before the 'and'. Read it and pause in different places and you'll see he means what you said.

Namely, '...the Germans, and British Airways...'

If you want to waste ten minutes of your life: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serial_comma

[SWBKCB]

one more new airline probably creates more than 1 new based frame from a loco

Could you expand? I think a based unit would win every time?

Not to mention that ridiculous Spanish outfit bringing in cargo every night.

I'm only aware of Jet2 (Yorkshire based, though we don't hold that against them...), West Atlantic (British/Swedish) and FedEx (American subcontracted to an Irish airline) - have I missed something?

[HH6702]

Hi

Well i have just been looking at what seats are left on the United flights for the first 6 weeks of operation.

Looks like they have sold so far around 1000 seats which looks like 20% of total seats on sale for that time

You may think this looks bad 20% but when you look at other airports BFS,EDI and even HEATHROW all the plane loads look the same for what has been sold.

upfront the business seats not much sold however i would expect these to be sold nearer the time when businesses know what they want.

Bookings so far will be the leisure pax

so far so good lets hope it keeps growing

[HH6702]

Looks like Varna on a thursday with Thomas Cook has been canx.

NO Onur flight but still have Pegasus...

Alba Star is to do the Saturday Verona flights now

[EK77WNCL]

HH6702: Damn, shame about Varna, I can't find any mention of TOM to Hurghada either, does anyone know if that's still knocking about? Also, how did you get the info on the seats sold, I've only ever looked at the seat map on the website and they're all the same. Good to hear though

johnnychips: Thank, you yes I did make a small typo there, my bad. I am of course fully aware that British Airways never owned Thomas Cook hahahaha

SWBKCB: I'll admit that probably was an exaggeration, to an extent. It would just seem to me that if for example Easyjet based a new aircraft, they already have contracts, staff, facilities set up at NCL, but if a new carrier came in, they would have all of that to set up, and in the long run if it ended up being a very successful, regular route (say if EK goes 2 daily, or UA ended up going 10 weekly+ year round) then the jobs created etc. Would seem to be quite similar, especially considering legacy carriers as a rule of thumb employ more people than locos.

Canberra I think that's probably personal, try not to let me bother you mate, was it my typo or my picking up on the ridiculousness of not funding foreign carriers?

[fa2fi]

It's hard to think of routes that would be viable and justify spending public money on developing. With this £56m. Is this just for routes from NCL? Or is it for the North East or England as a whole to share? It won't go far if it is shared!

What about T3 or BM to Norwich? Apparently NCL is one of the most requested routes from Norwich (according to the Norwich forum anyway). If LinksAir think they can make VLY-CWL-NWI (good luck to them!) work then perhaps the development fund could help NCL to NWI build up into a long successful route.

KEF seems to do very well but already served up the road in EDI by U2 with the benefit of a lot more inward tourism to EDI than we could. If Icelandair flew it there would be connections to the US. However most of these are very seasonal and will compete with the seasonal United flight which will offer more connections to more places than Icelandair, so I think that's a nonstarter. Would have to be LCC P2P traffic really.

[EK77WNCL]

fa2fi, I agree with KEF, maybe if FI did winter seasonal x2 weekly? Lower risk for UA even if they went x5 weekly/daily year round.

BM to NWI could be a good shout if it's as popula as it's meant to be. BM to FRA too? With LH codeshare?

LCC P2P, I've said it before and I'll say it again, EZY to Munich, Milan, Marrakech, maybe Reykjavik? If they gave a 4th frame, maybe more Greek routes, Athens? Sicily could be nice (I don't know how many weekly frequencies one frame can operate, 14-18 depending on sector length?) Winter seasonal to Lanzarote, Sharm El Sheikh, Paphos? I think EZY have realised the market outside of Spain and Portugal.

My addition for the £56 million wishlist would be Turkish couple per week to Istanbul, and return of Venice, LS seemed to have good loads for all I saw.

EDIT: Yeah I think it's just for NCL, if NCL/MME/CAX all got £56 million each we could see some good news from the latter two for once.

[SWBKCB]

It's a national fund - all airports under 5 Million pax/year.:ugh:

[Hipennine]

I think that the fund should open up routes from NCL to every regional airport in the world with under 5m pax - there does that cover everybody's wish list, or are we going to get more pages of "well I think a twice weekly to xxxx would be good" ?

[Fairdealfrank]

Canberra - I think he meant to insert what is called an 'Oxford Comma' before the 'and'. Read it and pause in different places and you'll see he means what you said.

Namely, '...the Germans, and British Airways...'


and maybe after the word “carrier”?

[Charlie98]

No one mentioned we now have SIDs! Only for use when the Currock Hill Gliding is active - GIRLI (1Y for 25) and (1T for 07)

[EK77WNCL]

SWBKCB, The Fedex feeder flight is currently contracted out to Swiftair according to Wikipedia, and I know it's a national fund but I've heard no mention of MME or CAX applying for it. As I said, if they both get £56 million as well... Good!

[SWBKCB]

The FedEx flight has been operated by Air Contractors for years (Wikipedia is wrong... :eek:).

The Regional Air Connectivity Fund is a national fund available to airports with less than 5m pax - £17.5m available this year (and not for each airport :ugh:)

[Jamesair]

.....and £56m is the overall value of the three year fund.

[ash666]

Easyjet is to axe its service between Newcastle and London Gatwick.

The budget airline, which offers 11 flights each way every week, said the decision followed a review.

It said: "The route will cease to operate from 27 March because passenger demand has not been at a viable level to maintain it."

Newcastle Airport said it was disappointed with the decision, but had secured a deal with Flybe for a London Stansted service.

Easyjet said: "We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

"We continue to serve the North East with 16 other exciting destinations across Europe, from Malta to Geneva to Rhodes."

Graham Mason, from Newcastle Airport, said that landing fees at Gatwick, together with air passenger duty, had had an impact on regional services.

He said: "Actually demand from the North East was strong, but it wasn't so strong the other way.

"We haven't just sat back, but have secured a deal with Flybe for a Stansted service starting in March, and will be looking at other possibilities."

[SWBKCB]

Why's this popped up again - been known for yonks?

[ash666]

Ok, just me behind the times.

[SWBKCB]

No problem, from memory LGW was dropped before STN was announced, so something must have prompted these quotes - was just wondering what?

[ash666]

It was on the BBC (local) website today.

BBC News - Easyjet axes Newcastle Gatwick route (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-31061866)

[SWBKCB]

Odd - also heard it on the Radio Newcastle news

Also -

Newcastle Airport voted best in UK (From The Northern Echo) (http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11762205.Newcastle_Airport_voted_best_in_UK/)

NCL does seem to be quite good at winning this sort of thing - this is an interesting comment from the article:

The aviation industry has also been delighted with the performance of Newcastle Airport. Last year the airport was named the best base for customer service by easyJet, the best for on time performance by Thomas Cook, and the top performing base for 2014 by Jet2.

[Jamesair]

Strangely, ever since the cancellation of the route was announced pax traffic has been up by over 30% each month

[EK77WNCL]

Easyjet are making money, just not enough money to sustain NCL when they can make more money from Gatters utilising the NCL aircraft. Shame, but business :'(

If that quote is true its very interesting!

[HH6702]

Surprised that easyjet awards NCL this.
Most be one of there smallest bases

[EK77WNCL]

It is actually their smallest base if I'm not mistaken, it was a few years ago. That probably helps with customer service although NCL does get quite a lot of customer service awards among others.

I'm confused by Jet2's though, that one strikes me as most surprising as it would seem that would lead to some slightly more substantial expansion, unless it means best performing in terms of highest LF's in which case it's in their best interests to take it slow and steady.

When do the 2014 year end caa stats come out?

[INeedTheFull90]

I'm pretty sure easy have similar small bases in NCE, TLS, OPO and SEN. I don't see why smaller bases are so problematic. I'd hazard a guess and say at least ten of Ryanair's are two aircraft bases and they don't seem to struggle.

Thing is with LGW the peak times are slot restrained with some first wave flights not departing until 0800-0900. This must have some impact on the efficiency of the based units at LGW if they're firced to sit on the ground for longer than needed.

What's the source of the quote EK77WNCL?

[ConstantFlyer]

There has been some advertising here in North East England for the United New York Newark route, but I have been scouring the interweb for any signs of advertising in the USA for the route. Not found anything yet. If the route is to be a success, we don't just need North Easterners to fly on it; we need Americans to use NCL as their UK gateway of preference. But if they don't know about it, we're scuppered.

[EK77WNCL]

INeedTheFull90, reply #6091

I understand why EZY are ending the route, as you pointed out they are valuable slots; more money elsewhere; impact on efficiency etc. It's just a shame when it is a profitable route and when growth is so large. Just have to hope BE does well to STN...

If NCL ever regains it's flybe base, NCL-LCY could seem like a good shout with flybe's new lower fares.

EDIT: ConstantFlyer, I agree, this is an extract from what I posted on my aviation related page on Facebook on Wednesday:

"Good news, in that Newcastle will be eligible for the route development fund as all airports under 5 million passengers are eligible. Total of £56 million over 3 years, £17.5 million available this year. The airport has to make a submission but I see no reason why they won't since they lobbied for it to be increased to 5 million. Perhaps some of this money may go to supporting United, but according to a recent press release they are "very excited" about the Newcastle route and so far it is selling well (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/united-airlines-boss-cant-wait-8478411). I think they have the right idea, getting American's to the North East is arguably more important to long term success than the other way round. We all know Geordies want to head off to the States but the North East is less known across America (unfortunately - because they love castles and countryside and our beaches, hadrians wall, and Geordies themselves! So it stands to reason they'd probably like Newcastle and the North East as a place!). Even still, it would also be really nice to see some new routes from Newcastle as well so my suggestion is to inundate the airport and let them know what routes you want to see! They can afford them now! What's your wishlist?"

[CabinCrewe]

The smallest base but yet the one that bizarrely produces the most number of posts in here.....

[INeedTheFull90]

ConstantFlyer - where have you been looking for advertising stateside? Are you in the USA now? And what kind of ads are you meaning?

EK777W - are you saying the LGWNCL route is not sustainable or the NCL base?

[yeo valley]

eck77wncl wrote



"Good news, in that Newcastle will be eligible for the route development fund as all airports under 5 million passengers are eligible. Total of £56 million over 3 years, £17.5 million available this year. The airport has to make a submission but I see no reason why they won't since they lobbied for it to be increased to 5 million. Perhaps some of this money may go to supporting United, but according to a recent press release they are "very excited" about the Newcastle route and so far it is selling well

the way i read this what you have written is that all the 56 million is for ncl. if you read it correct then the development fund is shared out between all uk airports. got my douts all will be used b4 the fund is closed.

[EK77WNCL]

Right I'm really confused now... It's 56 million over 3 years for each airport under 5mil pax... That doesn't seem like an awful lot, if we include Carlisle, that's 26 airports under 5 million and therefore £673,076 each for the first year and just over £1.48 million shared over the next two... To me that doesn't seem like a lot of money for the likes of NCL, EMA, LPL, LBA, LCY etc. It would be a more significant investment for CAX, NQY, HUY, NWI, MME and the like.

I'm not saying not to go for it but it doesn't seem as worth it as £17.5 mil

INeedTheFull90, of course the NCL base is sustainable, certainly! If anything I'm agreeing with you that NCL-LGW is less sustainable than other possible peak slot timed flights from LGW. I.e sustainable from the NCL end of things, but not the LGW side.

[SWBKCB]

It's a £56m total fund that airlines serving any airports under 5 million pax per year can bid for - the first tranche is for £17.5m. They won't just get it, but will need to put forward a bid showing "net economic benefits for the region", so bucket and spade routes won't get it.

Bear in mind this is tax payers money being used to subsidise (largely) private businesses to generate an economic benefit at a time of recession and a massive budget deficit - the real world is going to come as such a shock...

[fa2fi]

Well the welsh and the Scottish have benefitted from government subsidised flights and airports, NI has APD exemptions and Scotland will likely be getting APD cuts. Don't see any problem with this scheme if it stimulates business links, tourism and inward investment to areas throughout the UK including England as we have zero support for any of our services.

[SWBKCB]

including England as we have zero support for any of our services.

NQY-LGW is subsidised.

[EK77WNCL]

So it's airlines that go to the government and say "we want to fly AAA-BBB because CCC and it's effects will be beneficial for XYZ, so please can we have a cut"? And then the airport gets the money to subsidise the new route.

Which airlines have actively approached NCL recently? Supposedly Swiss so that could be a potential applicant? Could make us more attractive to Turkish?

Finally, if we (hopefully) exceed 5 million passengers within the next 3 years are we still eligible?

[fa2fi]

NQYLGW - any more than this one route? Either way proportionally England receives very little support compared to the others.

[SWBKCB]

Google is your friend...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/397875/start-up-aid-initial-application-guidance-2a.pdf

Note that routes to airports between 3-5m can only benefit in “duly substantiated exceptional cases”, which will be determined by the EU Commission, and airlines must have an EU operating licence. I would imagine the figure would be at the time of the application (or a proceeding period).

[fa2fi]

What's the reference on that document to find the answer to my question? Viewing it on a tiny screen but can find of no current subsidised routed to of from or within England.

[EK77WNCL]

If it's up to anyone other than NE Councillors and the airport... We're getting nowt.

[HH6702]

This years Xmas shopping trips now on sale!!

5 flights for Newcastle

These must make jet2 lots of money

[EK77WNCL]

Glad to see them doing well, hopefully they'll stick around if UA go year round. Good to see the 757's back next year, I think it's strange that as of this year we will only have 757's going across the pond.

[LiamNCL]

They used to go everywhere other than across the pond , I remember way back in 2007 getting a TCX 757 to Reus ! & 1998 a Airtours 757 to Girona

This year was actually first time it wasnt part of the Holiday experience ( A321 to SSH )

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah it's weird haha, I'm not sure if I like it or not, I'd love another one based, can't understand Jet2's logic really if it's true they've been moved due to takeoff performance.

[Una Due Tfc]

Both aircraft empty, a 757 weighs about 12 tonnes more than an A321. Fuel consumption reflects this, so unless the extra range or takeoff performance is needed, A321 makes more sense on most routes from a cost perspective.

[LiamNCL]

having flew the new A321 i wouldnt have the 757 back personally , Fantastic aircraft ! Those new Thomas cook scandinavia 321s are doing 6HR + flights

Airbus will bridge the atlantic with a single isle someday IMO

[OltonPete]

LiamNCL

The A321 NEO LR is already on the market (not built yet) and at 4000nm will cover UK Transatlantics to the east coast of America no problem and at a stretch Chicago.

All it needs is someone to commit with American and United having the opportunity I would have thought to convert some options.

This could be brilliant for the likes of Newcastle, Bristol, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Belfast and BHX where really wide-bodies are extravagant or non-starters.

Airbus Launches Long-Range A321neo Version | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week (http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/airbus-launches-long-range-a321neo-version).

As yet I have not seen any article to suggest that the likes of United or American have ordered it but I am sure Airbus would have sounded them out before committing to the project.

Then of course Thomas Cook also could make use of it from the UK or from Europe and if it lives up to the stats it can only be a winner on both sides of the Atlantic.

The 757 will be missed by some including me having fond memories flying BA from BHX-JFK but the A321 NEO LR will be the new kid on the block shortly.

Pete

[LiamNCL]

Just looking at US carrier's alone , The backbone of their fleets are 757s , If Airbus do go on to make and produce a true replacement there is a massive market and will soon be massive demand as the 757s get older and older

[CabinCrewe]

Relativeto other fleet types, not sure Id say 757s were 'backbones' anymore...

[LiamNCL]

There are a fair number of 757 routes that wouldnt support a widebody though, without a single isle able to cross the pond United would never of tried NCL imo

[SWBKCB]

North East airport bosses say Chancellor needs to act now over English air tax uncertainty - The Journal (http://www.thejournal.co.uk/north-east-analysis/north-east-airport-bosses-say-8601754)

[EK77WNCL]

Yes, yes he does. But no, no he wont. We're about 250 miles too north to care about.

And I don't understand MAN's concern and I think it might take the concern off NCL a bit. It's easily an hour more to drive MAN-GLA than driving NCL-EDI. Then there's also the fact that, really Manchester has such a wide customer base, large amount of based airlines and very varied routes not available elsewhere... That it can probably hold its own.

[GrahamK]

Other than Emirates, do any of the other airlines operating into NCL class it as Captain only?

[Skipness One Echo]

Other than Emirates, do any of the other airlines operating into NCL class it as Captain only?
Runway length issue?

[Lord Spandex Masher]

Correct, Emirates consider it quite short for a 777.

[EK77WNCL]

In the wrong conditions it's pretty short for anything haha, although for regular visitors the 777 probably comes ahead of/ranks similarly to aircraft like the 738/A321/A320/733 in terms of performance from NCL.

It is the shortest runway in the EK network though (and possibly shortest for the 77W worldwide?) and if a 200 hours trainee cocked up on a windy, rainy day it wouldn't be worth the mess.

[HH6702]

The above is taken over BOTH verona flights for summer 2015

This replaces the Thomson Wednesday flight and Livingston saturday flights

This makes a loss of 80 seats per week

[CentreFix25]

Does this free the Thomson to do something else, or was it a 'W'.

[highwideandugly]

I often wonder about the newcastle runway and the lack of foresight in extending it?? I know it costs a lot but 300 metres would make a massive difference to the future of the NE s. Premier airport?
Why have the owners never really put the idea foreword?? A bit like the other side of the airport..even here in teeside there is a massive potential for non airline operations with the hangers...Newcastle have never spent anything on the south side with the massive potential there?? Poor management and outlook!

We know Emirates are restricted,United and probably any A321 operator??

Speculate to accumulate..there is a lot of money floating about out there for aviation developments but Newcastle seem to be wayyyyyy behind the times...a bit like the football team!!!:p

[CabinCrewe]

Use the ABZ and BHX models for runway expansion, what have they gained that they couldnt have operated with their original runway lengths.... it wont be far off a big fat zero. Money well spent?

[SWBKCB]

Newcastle have never spent anything on the south side with the massive potential there?? Poor management and outlook!

Apart from the cargo centre, the academy and the new apron?

Southside is earmarked for development with business units going in to the east of the cargo centre.

[INeedTheFull90]

Any extention would be a monumental waste of money. What long haul flights would be attracted? EK won't go any bigger than a 777, United no bigger than the 757 and possibly the A321 NEO ER and that's IF the NCL Service lasts that long.

There is no single sustainable profitable long haul service I can think of apart from those two. Particularly none that would justify extending the runway for.

[HH6702]

The Thomson plane goes to Palma.
When the flights went on sale Wednesday was always 1 over that didn't fit into the 3 based aircraft however it does now.


As for runway I think it would be a waste of money at the minute.
As it has been said newer aircraft will be able to use ncl fine.

Couldn't see us getting anything bigger than the 777.

Out of interest what would be the furthest a 777 could fly from ncl using the runway length we have??

Could it get to places like

Las Vegas ?
Calgary ?

Understand maybe not a full load but say good 300 passengers?

[highwideandugly]

Newcastle have never spent anything on the south side with the massive potential there?? Poor management and outlook

SWKB. Quote....lApart from the cargo centre, the academy and the new apron?

Southside is earmarked for development with business units going in to the east of the cargo centre.


But that's my argument. Cargo centre...what extra has that brought in?? The academy....same. What has that actually done for the airport? New apron...still can't take anything bigger than a 146...The SOUTHSIDE from memory has been subject to development for 20 plus years and nothing has appeared!

Sorry no real development as I said for 40 years.no extra real revenue produced.no hangers,no real aviation companies and no real prospects?? LImited taxiways and concentration on terminal and reduced but almost now static passenger figures??

[SWBKCB]

New apron...still can't take anything bigger than a 146

I'm taking about apron G which is used by the cargo/mail aircraft - there was a 737 (along with an Atp and a Fokker) parked there tonight...

Do you really think the cargo centre brings nothing to the airport? No revenue, no extra employment?

Sure more could have been done, but to say nothing has been done is way off beam - also seems a bit odd to criticise the airport for spending money on the terminal. Looks like core business to me.

[highwideandugly]

Don't wish to get into a my dads bigger than yours argument....you obviously know more about the airport than me.
However as an outsider looking in...my observations were...has the cargo centre actually generated any extra business?

Yes sorry forgot about the other apron which can take three aircraft .just a pity it wasn't made just a titchy bit bigger and took 6 aircraft!!

Just look at other comparable airports..esp.ema??? Freight and passengers for example.why just concentrate on passengers and a pretty limited catchment?

Terminal is a superior product to all ne airports..no doubt..but again. Why not now spread the money around a little. Bit more..speculate to accumulate while some extra cash might be available??

[skyman771]

Ref Runway use at NCL,surprised that no one has mentioned the efforts of some flights to extract every available inch, on 25 at least when they pull onto the 12OM or so pre threshold on a rolling start...
It appears to be a practice of EK when I have been aboard & noted it on other occasions. It all helps, but wonder if it's included in the T/O calculations ;)

[SWBKCB]

To paraphrase the great Sir Alex, NCL is just a wee airport in the North east of England - quite a distance from other major population centres and with an "indifferent" road network linking it the rest of the country - compare and contrast to EMA. Where would you fly your freight to?

[EK77WNCL]

Skyman 777, I noticed that on EK once but not particularly any other times (on the 75th anniversary we were about 20 degrees off the centerline when takeoff roll started)

I've also seen a TCX 757 do it from inside the terminal taking off on 07, his nosewheel actually went on the little line of crosses. This July my flight to Rhodes (TOM 738) did it but apart from that I've never noticed it. I'm not sure exactly why they do it, it probably gives them an extra 10-20 metres, I think it might be for peace of mind....

Sorry to be nitpicky but I wouldn't say emirates are limited, they aren't as far as I'm aware, the flight can/has/will go out completely full because of how little fuel is carried for such a "short" flight. I don't think UA and the 757 will be limited, LS075 got out alright with 220-ish pax

With regards to the furthest a 777 could fly from NCL...
-3500mi is pretty much no bother, so that's DXB (3517), AUH (3533), DOH (3371), NYC (3337), YYZ (3414), ACC (3407)
-Up to 4500mi, then you might have to look at some restrictions...
DEL, BOM, YYC, MIA, HAV
-Up to 6000mi then I think there is still potential for a decent passenger load, but not a full one and limited cargo, also while the aircraft might physically be able to take off from NCL, it could be pretty marginal, especially from 25. This accounts for places like HKG, PEK, LAX, SFO, ICN, NRT, BKK, DAC, CMB.
-7000mi or more probably becomes more trouble than it's worth if you want to make big money, SIN, CPT, EZE, MNL, SGN are close to off limits...

Would anyone agree/disagree/insert more facts?

[Skipness One Echo]

Aren't they therefore limited on cargo which then impacts on profitability?

[EK77WNCL]

As far as I am aware (happy to be proven wrong) EK can definitely operate a full pax load on a 3 class machine and I'm sure they can on the 2 class machines too along with a full cargo load from NCL-DXB.

I'm sure some of EK's more restricted routes the baggage allowance is/was 20kg as opposed to the usual 30kg, if there were serious issues I'd think NCL would be 20kg too.

[Montreal-Dubai]

Hello EK77WNCL :) Believe you me, the EK 77W can take off full in 2 class configuration, from NCL, no bother at all. I have done it twice from both 25 and 07. The GE engines make all the difference, that is why EK use this type as a true work horse as it is so versatile, and allows them to operate the way they do from locations all over the world. Baggage allowances are the same network wide i.e 30KG for Y class, 40KG for C class and 50KG if you are connecting to a First class onward connection. Regular travellers on higher tier Skyward cards get extra allowance too, and I am sure you will have seen the amounts of baggage checked in most days when they are busy up at NCL :) It is comical sometimes, particularly when the international students go home. When I go out to SE Asia on business, I make sure I use my full allowance and that will be using several bags, EK are a God send for me in this case as they are essential for my work. Granted, the crew dont mess about with the power once cleared for take off, but the accelleration is so powerful, and it seems to lift off effortlessly in no time at all. It seems to take longer for a Thomson B738 to lift off, than the bigger fellas, plus the duration of the flight is spot on for the B77W. EK know what they are doing :ok: Finally I dont have the need to ever go to the likes of Edinburgh. The fares from NCL particulary with EK and KL are always reasonable, and I never have the need to travel from else where. I dont think I could ever be bothered wasting time travelling overland to another departure point, particularly for long haul travel, when I have very good connectivity from NCL. These potential taxation issues in Scotland just dont bother me at all, and there will be plenty like minded people like myself. Im sure other folk will shout this down, but hey-ho, I shant be loosing sleep whatsoever.

[EK77WNCL]

Unfortunately I think many will go to EDI if prices go down and it could have detrimental effect on airlines like LS/TOM/EZY who overlap in destinations from NCL and EDI/GLA. Added to this the lack of non-stop, widely affordable EU city routes from NCL (which are available from EDI/GLA) it can't be brilliant for them.

I remember at one point routes like DXB-SFO/DXB and strangely DXB-ICN, had a 20kg limit but that must be resolved and standardised now. Yeah I'd suspected as much regarding full takeoffs, the tanks being empty helps a lot too with having plenty runway to spare. And yeah, not uncommon to see 3/4 suitcases and a couple of plasma TV's being checked in... I'm sure I saw some other large electrical appliance as well, but I can't remember what it was...

[GrahamK]

Bad weather in NCL at the moment?
EK went around 2/3 times and the 4U DUS has went around as well.

AF1058 came in squawking 7700 and the LS to PRG diverted to LBA earlier too.

[ash666]

Beautiful weather here, no problems at all.

[HeathrowDictator]

EK went around 2/3 times and the 4U DUS has went around as well.I think the missing words here were "the hold"...no go arounds (well not looking at FR24 anyway). The two aircraft mentioned held whilst the 7700 traffic landed, and made an approach around 10 minutes later which would tally with the emergency vacating and a runway inspection being completed.

Tyne Tees are reporting it here (http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-12/emergency-declared-on-newcastle-bound-flight/) - and it looks like a lack of facts too. The Jet2 flight to Prague was outbound and looking at FR24 turned around just north of the Norfolk coast with it's own emergency before diverting into Leeds. British sensationalism (journalism) at it's best!

-HD-

[Airbanda]

The Jet2 flight to Prague was outbound and looking at FR24 turned around just north of the Norfolk coast with it's own emergency before diverting into Leeds.

Where a rapid swap of machines was carried out from the presumably ailing G-GDFE to G-GDFL with latter departing LBA for PRG at 12:30 as EXS509A. Now in air again as LS510 to NCL.

[EK77WNCL]

Was last January unusually strong because the statistics look bleak, especially on leisure

[SWBKCB]

Does look odd - only looked at the international figures, but 5 out of the top 6 are up (AMS, DXB, CDG, DUB and GVA - Tenerife is down) but double digit percentage loses on Alicante, Malaga, Arrecife and Fuerteventura

Overall static - 53 different up!

[CabinCrewe]

The quasi charter routes are always up and down, irregular week ops from year to year. Cant easily compare like with like. Stick to the fixed scheduled to see if theres growth or not.

[SWBKCB]

Tend to agree CC - but the drop on the Spanish routes is striking, does make you wonder if the stats are incomplete. Also, never realised there was no Palma through the winter?

Destination Jan 15 Jan 14 Diff
HEATHROW 36,704 33,780 8.7
AMSTERDAM 26,959 26,451 1.9
DUBAI 19,327 18,351 5.3
TENERIFE 16,424 16,766 -2.0
BELFAST INTERNAT 14,495 14,231 1.9
DUBLIN 14,399 13,104 9.9
BRISTOL 11,533 13,213 -12.7
PARIS (C DE GAULLE) 11,203 10,290 8.9
GENEVA 8,338 8,163 2.1
GATWICK 7,924 4,991 58.8
ALICANTE 7,621 10,151 -24.9
MALAGA 5,772 6,843 -15.7
ARRECIFE 5,352 6,144 -12.9
SHARM EL SHEIKH 5,018 5,240 -4.2
BARCELONA 3,289 3,268 0.6
FARO 2,850 2,326 22.5
EXETER 2,244 1,633 37.4
DUSSELDORF 2,122 2,720 -22.0
FUERTEVENTURA 2,080 2,326 -10.6
ABERDEEN 1,930 2,247 -14.1

[EK77WNCL]

I thought that could have had something to do, like having 5 flights per week one month of one year and only 4 the next if a weekly flight, but tha doesn't ad up year round, 2014 seemed like just losses as well on routes like ALC, TFS, FUE, PMI etc etc etc

[N707ZS]

Think the problem is lack of disposable income, things might improve slightly now the pound to euro exchange rate is increasing.

[EK77WNCL]

Could well be... Maybe Spain is just on a bit of a low in general this year last year and probably for 2015 too. In the Summer while places like Alicante, Malaga and Palma were down 20% on last year places like Kefalonia, Zante, Rhodes and Kos were up by 100% or more.

Thankfully January is still 2% up on last year but those stats are disheartening, hoping for a good Easter and Summer.

[Flyit Pointit Sortit]

I see that the highest growth was on the Gatwick flight.

Must be time to kill it off now then!!!:ugh::ugh::ugh:

[GrahamK]

Flyit Poinit Sortit

I know load factors aren't everything, but the Jan loads I get as coming out as 52.6%. No wonder EZY are dropping it

[tigertanaka]

It is not really apples with apples when comparing a 78 seat FlyBe Dash 4 with an 156 seat Easyjet A319 on the Newcastle-Gatwick route.

[EK77WNCL]

Since EZY took over the route has seen constant growth, most if not all double digit growth, and that's without having any detrimental effect on LHR. If they left it another year and they were still under 70% loads then maybe I could understand pulling the route but I think they've made the decision too soon. I'm sure 50%+ would just be turning a profit. Although as we know.... Other deployment is more profitable.

Just have to hope Flybe have the same success on the STN route as the last operator... Who were they again? The one with 4 daily 737's...

[Heathrow Harry]

still astounds me that Dubai is third and only 5000 pax a month behind Amsterdam


what the hell do they do there all day???:confused::confused:

[SWBKCB]

Whose to say they aren't all inbound to the NE? :ok:

[Heathrow Harry]

:):):):):)

ah yes - all those rich A-rabs buying mansions in Monkseaton again................

or all the poor ones taking all the jobs at the Ministry in Benton............

driving their herds of goats & camels across the (sun-drenched) sand dunes of the Long Sands at Tynemouth

I should have thought ........

[heslop2006]

Not to forget that Dubai is also like a connector for us in the North East to Asia/Oceania.

The past 2 years I've gone from Newcastle to Dubai then onwards to Bangkok, Shanghai and Taipei. :)

Extremely useful really.

[MATELO]

Does anybody know why Thomsons pulled the NCL to Verona flight.

[Keyvon]

NCL to Verona will be operated by Albastar 734 on Saturdays.

[SWBKCB]

Believe there's also a midweek Verona operated by Albastar for Thomson Holidays - so Thomson Holidays still have the flights just not on Thomson Air aircraft, presumably don't fit in their schedules.

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah I believe the midweek 738 now goes to Palma

[planedrive]

Hi/ Does anyone know how many planes Thomas Cook will have based at Newcastle for the coming summer 2015, and how many flights (on average) per day will operate? Thanks in advance!

[EK77WNCL]

Planedrive, Gyazo - 1f41d777a699815827fa02c75114afbb.png (http://gyazo.com/1f41d777a699815827fa02c75114afbb)

That might be a bit old, i.e Varna isn't happening now but it gives a good idea. 3 A/C, 2 A321's and 1 leased A320 (Probably Smartlynx again)

[pallan]

I'm surprised that given TCX are operating DLM daily, that there isn't at least one early morning flight?

They're all very late - personally, if I'm only going on holiday for 7/10 nights I would want an early flight to maximise the holiday.

Hopefully it will work for them though - daily worked last summer albeit the Tuesday flight was a 7am.

[planedrive]

Thanks for the quick reply guys!

[EK77WNCL]

I suppose if you put up without a hotel room for the first night, getting there about 5am... It shouldn't be too much of a problem, however it does always seem like they're conning you out of a night when you arrive at that time.

[TSR2]

however it does always seem like they're conning you out of a night when you arrive at that time.

The inconvenience will be reflected in the cost.

[EK77WNCL]

Could well be, but in terms of the holidaymaker the first day is nearly always a write off when you arrive at your destination just as the sun is coming up

[SWBKCB]

Newcastle Airport future under threat if Scottish taxes are slashed, transport minister admits (From The Northern Echo) (http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11815610.Newcastle_Airport_future_under_threat_if_Scottish_t axes_are_slashed__transport_minister_admits/)

Some Labour MPs, led by Sedgefield’s Phil Wilson, have called for regional variations in APD rates in England, to protect the North-East if the SNP presses ahead with its cuts.

But, speaking to the committee, Mr Goodwill, the Scarborough and Whitby MP, said: “We don’t have a regional federal structure, we don’t have tax-raising powers for the North-East. So there’s not something that would allow the North-East to reciprocate in terms of cutting their taxes.”

[VentureGo]

This is.. as it says on the tin.... Politics and nothing more....
If Scotland abolishes APD (which it has NOT said it would do in one go! i.e. it would be halved initially... then.. "possibly" totally abolished
- It has already been stated that Newcastle would be protected and not be disadvantaged in such an event.
Realistically i.m.o. Manchester would be the loudest voice in such a move... and all reasonable arguments would be to abolish APD, although London Airports could be charged under a different rule (congesion)if that was deemed to be politically & economically viable

[nclpilot]

Any news on how the United EWR route is selling?

[GrahamK]

Still absolutely loads of seats available. First flight out looks about 60% full at the moment, every other flight seems to be wide open

[MerchantVenturer]

VentureGo

It's quite likely that APD powers will be devolved to Wales as well, especially if a Labour government is returned that relies on support from SNP and Plaid Cymru to run the UK.

That would put the owners of CWL in the enviable position of setting their own APD rates and the Labour-run Wales Assembly has already indicated its intention to slash or abolish APD. That would impact negatively on neighbouring English airports, especially BRS and possibly BHX to a lesser degree, if England remained under the current draconian British APD regime.

There might even be a chancellor of the exchequer responsible for setting English APD rates who represented a Welsh or Scottish constituency - it's happened in the recent past.

So it's quite possible that NCL would not be alone in having competing airports with a more benign APD structure not that it would be any consolation.

[AMS70]

If the short-haul rate of APD needs to go up by £3 or £4 to pay for a reduction in the medium/long haul rates then so be it. I don't think any Government left or right will write off £3 billion. As an aside will the Scottish Govt. keep APD in its present form as Cyprus is more than 2,000 miles from Edinburgh....

[Fairdealfrank]

It's quite likely that APD powers will be devolved to Wales as well, especially if a Labour government is returned that relies on support from SNP and Plaid Cymru to run the UK.

That would put the owners of CWL in the enviable position of setting their own APD rates and the Labour-run Wales Assembly has already indicated its intention to slash or abolish APD. That would impact negatively on neighbouring English airports, especially BRS and possibly BHX to a lesser degree, if England remained under the current draconian British APD regime.

There might even be a chancellor of the exchequer responsible for setting English APD rates who represented a Welsh or Scottish constituency - it's happened in the recent past.

So it's quite possible that NCL would not be alone in having competing airports with a more benign APD structure not that it would be any consolation.
The consequences of Labour's botched devolution arrangements and the failure to answer the "West Lothian" question. Labour was warned about the potential breakup of the UK by Tam Dalyell, Frank Field and others, but was in too much of a hurry to do the job properly. Labour may reap what it sowed on 7th May. Some may call it karma.

Unfortunately the toothpaste cannot be put back in the bottle. That said, it makes no sense to devolve APD rates for all the reasons listed above. The most benign APD structure is no APD, or phasing it out by a series of rate reductions, not by geography.


If the short-haul rate of APD needs to go up by £3 or £4 to pay for a reduction in the medium/long haul rates then so be it. I don't think any Government left or right will write off £3 billion. As an aside will the Scottish Govt. keep APD in its present form as Cyprus is more than 2,000 miles from Edinburgh....


Disagree, no rate of APD should be rising. Scrapping APD is said to be a boost to business and the economy as whole. The loss of revenue from APD could be more than compensated by income from other taxation.

[SWBKCB]

the EZY cancelling LGW story has re-emerged in the Chronicle again!!

Easyjet axes Newcastle to Gatwick service despite strong interest from northerners - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/easyjet-axes-newcastle-gatwick-service-8753737)

[EK77WNCL]

Does anyone know when we get the 2014 annual caa statistics, I would have thought it would have been released with the January statistics

[NewquayJacob]

According to CAA estimated release dates the annual 2014 figures will be published on the 17/03/15.

[EK77WNCL]

Cheers, couldn't find that :)

[GrahamK]

It appears that Flybe are dropping the Monday rotation to Exeter for the summer season.

Still don't understand the weirdness of the STN and SOU timings, obviously it's SOU-NCL-STN-NCL-SOU-NCL-STN-NCL-SOU but that's horrific for any businessman wanting to go to SOU, and I think it's a frequency reduction as well?

[EK77WNCL]

Surprised about the Monday rotation, I thought Exeter 2.0 was doing better than first time round, pax numbers were looking good.

Have to hope NCL gets some based frames again from Flybe, could help fix the schedules and make them more friendly.

[HH6702]

Very quiet on here in the last week are we all ok??

Anyone know the latest pax figures hope they are good reading?

[Flightrider]

Flybe seem to be short of one rotation per day at Exeter to make everything fit. The EXT-NCL is non-op on Mondays this summer, EXT-BHD on Tue&Fri, EXT-DUB on Wed&Thu. It's a bit random, but that's what they look to have done, so I would draw some comfort re EXT-NCL that it's only lost one weekly frequency instead of the two chopped from the longer-established BHD and DUB routes!!

[LiamNCL]

when does Hop! Take over the CDG route ?

[GrahamK]

CityJet still seem to be operating the CDG into the W15/16 season

[MATELO]

National Connectivity Task Force, led by Lord Shipley, says RAF Northolt could act as a regional satellite but favours expansion of Heathrow

An RAF base could connect Newcastle Airport to the long haul network if aviation chiefs choose to expand Gatwick Airport.

That was the key finding of the National Connectivity Task Force after its examination of plans by the Airports Commission to boost airport capacity at either London Heathrow or Gatwick.

The body, led by former Newcastle City Council leader Lord John Shipley, says RAF Northolt, a short taxi ride from Heathrow, could be become a regional satellite if the Gatwick plan was chosen.

The news will allay fears Newcastle Airport, which connects to the long haul network primarily via Heathrow, would miss out.

The commission has narrowed the choice down to expanding one of the two UK hub airports, having apparently ruled out an entirely new airport at the Thames Estuary - the plan dubbed ‘Boris Island’ because of the Mayor of London’s strong support of the proposal.

While either proposal may now cost between £2bn and £4bn, the RAF base could accommodate additional flights from Newcastle Airport, Durham Tees Valley Airport and Carlisle Airport, the report said.

The Task Force found that just one extra runway was needed and that an expansion of Heathrow - which is favoured by Newcastle Airport - offers the most benefit to regional economies. But it will make its official recommendation on a proposal in the summer.

Lord Shipley said: “A policy of non-intervention has for twenty years led to the prioritisation of international air access over domestic services at Gatwick and Heathrow.

“This policy can no longer be defended when from the middle of the next decade there could be in excess of 250,000 additional take-off and landing slots to be released as a result of a new runway being opened.

“As we seek to rebalance the country’s economy and generate real and lasting growth, domestic air connectivity to and through London and the South East matters greatly.

“The rest of the UK should no longer be required to rely so heavily on overseas hubs for global connectivity. The UK needs to be able to meet its own strategic infrastructure needs if it is to be able to compete globally.

“We welcome the work of the Airports Commission and hope that it will grasp the transformational opportunity now available for our nations, regions and Crown Dependencies and ensure their needs are fully and equitably reflected in its final report to the Government.”

The Task Force stressed the Airports Commission must prioritise the impact on regional airports before making a decision on expanding either Gatwick or Heathrow.

The report also highlighted that if their recommendations were followed, it would mean:

* Newcastle will benefit from enhanced long haul services via a UK hub;

* Inbound long-haul tourism will be stimulated as would other sectors such as life sciences, advanced manufacturing (oil and gas, automotive, steel, low carbon), renewable energy, pharmaceuticals and the higher education sector;

RAF base near Heathrow could connect Newcastle Airport to long haul network - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/raf-base-near-heathrow-could-8845882)

[SWBKCB]

So who exactly is the National Connectivity Task Force?

Couple of interesting quotes from their website...

Who decided to set up the Task Force?

Heathrow Airport Ltd (HAL) included the idea in their May 2015 Stage 2 Submission to the Airport’s Commission; both DfT and the Airports Commission showed interest in the proposal and so HAL approached Lord Shipley to help them establish the Task Force as an independent entity and then subsequently to Chair it.


The Chair and members of the Task Force will not be paid for their participation, but Heathrow Airport Ltd will cover their reasonable travel, accommodation and other expenses as part of its sponsorship of the Task Force’s Secretariat and the research programme it is leading. Heathrow Airport Ltd will have observer status at Task Force meetings, summary notes of which will be placed on the Task Force’s web site, but will not participate directly in the Task Force’s work or influence its conclusions.

:eek:

[skyman771]

Northolt being considered for Newcastle hub into Heathrow

Utterly :mad: stupid & totally impractical!:eek:

Another built up area surrounded by housing & A40.

Duuhhhh..... lets think now...., we're having a problem citing a new runway at the top of the M4 spur in Hillingdon..... so lets look for an existing runway 4 miles away & set up a transport link through some of the most highly populated areas of West London..................

They already have a link in place from North East that offers an effective solution at a fraction of the cost, it's called "Kings Cross !"

[CabinCrewe]

EK DXB holding ok. 10% up on last year. Both GLA and NCL up despite QR at EDI, which remains flat.

[SWBKCB]

Provisional stats:

ALICANTE 9,954 11,027 -9.73
AMSTERDAM 26,657 25,344 5.18
ARRECIFE 5,581 6,144 -9.16
BARCELONA 4,450 4,225 5.33
COPENHAGEN 1,349 1,655 -18.49
CORK 1,065 1,512 -29.56
DUBAI 18,595 16,980 9.51
DUBLIN 15,141 14,025 7.96
DUSSELDORF 2,404 2,491 -3.49
FARO 2,511 3,111 -19.29
FUERTEVENTURA 1,732 1,828 -5.25
GENEVA 7,816 8,130 -3.86
INNSBRUCK 1,370 1,394 -1.72
KRAKOW 1,334 1,274 4.71
LAS PALMAS 2,017 2,959 -31.84
MALAGA 7,604 8,410 -9.58
MALTA 1,991 2,263 -12.02
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE) 10,564 9,008 17.27
PRAGUE 1,330 1,366 -2.64
SALZBURG 1,447 1,466 -1.30
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA) 4,629 4,680 -1.09
SOFIA 825 696 18.53
STAVANGER 850 1,446 -41.22
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA) 14,918 16,752 -10.95
TURIN 1,400 1,439 -2.71

[A350Saltire]

CabinCrewe

EK at NCL grew 10%, at GLA just 1% - perhaps growth slowing at GLA as a result of QR? Who knows. I wouldn't say QR remains flat though - its not even been operating a year yet so we have nothing to compare it against.

[HH6702]

Good set of figures there

Just been looking at the first couple of weeks for our United service.

Seats are starting to fill up with the first 2 weeks now around 40% full which at the start of feb they were around 15-20%

Still have another 8 weeks or so and I'm guessing people who are travelling for business will now be looking to book there flights and hopeful seats at the front end of aircraft!!

[Centre cities]

Good set of figures depends on how they are interpreted, load factors and yields. On face value 18 of the listed routes are down.

Centre cities

[LiamNCL]

Good set of figures there

Just been looking at the first couple of weeks for our United service.

Seats are starting to fill up with the first 2 weeks now around 40% full which at the start of feb they were around 15-20%

Still have another 8 weeks or so and I'm guessing people who are travelling for business will now be looking to book there flights and hopeful seats at the front end of aircraft!!

In regards to the United EWR service , Wont they have to decide fairly soon ( Not that far into the service) wether they are returning next year ?

[HH6702]

In regards to the United EWR service , Wont they have to decide fairly soon ( Not that far into the service) wether they are returning next year ?


End of July for the following year to go on sale

[LiamNCL]

End of July for the following year to go on sale

i was thinking about it , no route can be established enough in that time , Probably be the same next year summer only

[SWBKCB]

United will have a pretty good idea of how they expect a new route to perform.

[N707ZS]

Is the £ to $ rate going to effect this flight?

[Grahamy]

Is the £ to $ rate going to effect this flight?

Its been pretty steady for the last 2 years at approx $1.50 to a £1 so nothings changed since united announced the route.

[Buster the Bear]

$1.70 when I went on Holiday last July!

[SWBKCB]

You should know Buster, things are always better in the South! :ok:

[GrahamK]

It looks like Thomson have dropped their plans to operate Hurghada in W15/16

[SWBKCB]

Newcastle Airport won't suffer from cuts in Scottish air tax, pledges David Cameron - The Journal (http://www.thejournal.co.uk/north-east-analysis/analysis-news/newcastle-airport-wont-suffer-cuts-8877327)

[EK77WNCL]

But if he cuts APD to the North East as well then that increases the risk to Manchester, then if Manchester get APD cuts that puts places like EMA and BHX at risk, if they are then to receive APD cuts that puts the precious home counties airports at risk along with places like BRS. Does it not just make more sense to cut APD completely? Or just have a kind of congestion charge-esque APD operation at LHR and maybe LGW?

[INeedTheFull90]

Why exactly are so many routes in decline? Is it a capacity chop/frequency chop or are planes just flying with less people. Deeply concerning that ere are significant drops before the impact of the APD chop in Scotland.

[EK77WNCL]

That's what I was thinking :/ I mean I suppose in a way it's "good" that it's mainly low cost leisure routes with plenty of operators that are in decline and the more "valuable/fragile" routes like Dubai, Amsterdam, Paris and also city routes with only one operator that seem to be doing allright.

This is why I'm still desperate to see to see the full year statistics because my theory is that people have simply changed their holiday habits, for example the Greek islands had 60-100+% increases for summer 2014 so maybe people have just changed where they go? Corfu, Kefalonia and Zante instead of the Costa del Sol/Balearics and Rhodes, Kos and Crete instead of the Canaries

It is concerning though in a way, I'd like to see the balance when EZY start their new routes this summer

[SWBKCB]

Is it as simple as TCX/LS 757's being replaced by 321/738's compared to last winter?

[EK77WNCL]

May well be unfortunately... But the way I understood it was that load factors didn't warrant 757's most of the time, hence the 738's/A321's would simply increase load factors since the 757's offered too much capacity? Was that just bull? And NCL is in fact losing out because of the loss in capacity and lack of increase in frequency?

I certainly hope not

[NCL-TRC]

The TCX situation is different to that of the LS, TCX are replacing their 757 fleet with A321s, therefore the change to the Airbus at Newcastle was not done because of demand, the 757s we're going out full anyway.

[CabinCrewe]

some were full certainly

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah TCX is more understandable, and 752-A321 isn't nearly as bad as 752-738

[LiamNCL]

Jet2 didnt take the 757s away because of demand , They wanted them all based in one place MAN & LBA

TCX will only have 4 752s this summer and none next year

[GrahamK]

Drop in capacity = higher yields.

[CabinCrewe]

Drop in capacity = higher yields.
In some scenarios only, but that is certainly not always the case

[highwideandugly]

I flew on the easy jet Gatwick on Friday...full bar a couple seats.Just can't understand why newcastle are loosing this improving route?
People go on about yields but could easy not just put a few quid on the fare structure to see how it pans out? Are the airport doing enough to hang on to it?:confused:

[GrahamK]

CabinCrewe, apologies, I should have said generally speaking, especially when it comes to holiday flights :ok:

[EK77WNCL]

Easyjet will do what they want unfortunately... And what they want is to have as many aircraft as is humanly possible in the South East.

With No APD I'd hope EZY could reinstate a London route and hopefully we might see a resurgance from Bristol and to a lesser extent Belfast.

Hopefully BE to STN will be fruitful but timings aren't brilliant, I reckon Ryanair could fill 2 738's a day to Stansted though if they offered the £9.99 all in fares they do from Edinburgh and Glasgow.

[SWBKCB]

Heathrow to support new flight routes between Newcastle and London - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/heathrow-support-new-flight-routes-8896169)

With Heathrow at full capacity for the last 10 years, many airlines have been forced to use available space for long-haul flights at the expense of domestic routes.

As a result, the number of connections from Newcastle to Heathrow has fallen from 18 in 1990 to just seven in 2015.

Heathrow has committed to working with Newcastle Airport, the city council and the North East Chamber of Commerce (NECC) to provide better-timed and more frequent flights between Newcastle and London.


18 LHR flights down to 7 since 1990? Really?!?

EK77WNCL - lots of places you could fill 2 flights a day to charging just £9.99...

[mockingjay]

Anyone know wht the EK arrival today sqwaked 7700 today just as it turned final?

[KNIEVEL77]

I saw an Ambulance leave with blue lights shortly after the EK arrival so perhaps a medical emergency?

By the way, was anyone listening to ATC around 1pm today?

[highwideandugly]

Interesting question. Why?

[LiamNCL]

Anyone know wht the EK arrival today sqwaked 7700 today just as it turned final? It was sqwaking a little longer than , Maybe just past Hull it was on 7700 and down to around 6000ft off the coast of Midlesbrough & still descending it looked for a second like it was heading for DTV It was that low

[mockingjay]

Oh I see. I got the notification as I was using my ioad and went straight to view it and it was ok final. There must have been a delay on my notification.

[LiamNCL]

It was deffinetley sqwaking just before Midlesbrough when i seen it , Stayed on 7700 all the way to the gate

[Jamesair]

I read locally that there will be two charter flights operating for fans from Stansted to NCL for the Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspurs fixture on the 19th April.

[G-TYNE]

No wonder EZY aren't doing well at Newcastle.

Which brainbox thought of ending the TFS flight right before Easter (When every man and his dog are looking to head to Tenerife). Looks like a Wonga loan and some Jet2 tickets instead for us...

[fa2fi]

TFS is a winter destination only and the summer timetable kicks in just before Easter and therefore it is not available unfortunately. Whilst you're right in what you say everyone wants to go to TFS, but they also want to go to other places just as much.

I'm a little out of touch with what happens in NCL but I would imagine PMI will be back, GVA is staying year round, NCE and JER will be starting back up soon too as well as (I think) increased frequencies which is what the aircraft will be working.

[fl dutchman]

On sale now. Could it be down to just 2 aircraft ?

[fa2fi]

From what I can see it is still three. Completely unscientific I know but looking at 18/01/16 there is a 0630 to Geneva, a 0700 to Belfast and a 0700 to Bristol. On some days there may be just two flying but that is in line with previous years and many bases will have up to half of the based fleet on the ground, particularly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

[Jamesair]

To be operated at a twice daily (weekdays) frequency by Links Air, commencing 1/09/16 is the only application under the Regional Air Connectivity fund involving NCL to go through to shortlisting, which will take place in May 2015. There are 19 routes in all involving smaller airports on the current list.

Other routes involving N.E. airports are:-

DTV - Belfast, operated by Links Air at twice daily(weekdays) planned to start 01/09/15

Carlisle - Belfast
Carlisle - Dublin
Carlisle - Southend all by Stobart Air....Daily commencing 01/04/16

[EK77WNCL]

Interesting! Could be good although tickets will be expensive I bet, and oil is declining but I wish them the best of luck. I assume/hope 01/09/16 is a typo and the route actually begins on 01/09/15 with the MME-BFS route.

I think all of those routes are very ambitious, hopefully the air connectivity fund will help but I'm very dubious. NCL-NWI and CAX-DUB (only with transatlantic connections) have a chance but the others will be hard work or very marginal IMHO. Links Air have obviously seen an opportunity though and I hope it pays off

Is Norwich all we're getting do you think?

[SWBKCB]

This is an application to the Regional Air Connectivity fund - short listing will be in May with a final decision in July. The announcement on GOV.UK definitely says 2016, so shouldn't be a mistake. NWI is the only route listed for NCL.

[EK77WNCL]

Arent there two more releases of funding though? Next year and the year after, where is the announcement, can't find it?

[NCL-TRC]

It seems BMI Have downgraded their single based aircraft which is used to operate the NCL-BRU route from a E145 to a E135, the Brussels Airlines website also confirms this.

[EK77WNCL]

If it increases yields/load factors and keeps us at 3 daily, can't be too bad... Can it?

[N707ZS]

EK77WNCL Norwich should be a good route I have recently told the staff at DTVA to go for it as you have a rich market for the oil and gas industry. And Norwich is probably just as hard as Aberdeen to get to from our region by road.

[EK77WNCL]

Norwich and Manchester are/were NCL's most requested domestic routes, just hoping it works with such a small and expensive aicraft

[fl dutchman]

This appears to be 3 daily on Weds and Thurs only from June, possibly earlier. Also as mentioned in an earlier post a smaller aircraft.

Easyjet winter to BRS. Seems to be 3 afternoon flights on some days instead of the 2 this winter. Still none in the morning though on these days. Cant understand the logic. Whats happened to a morning and an evening flight as in the past, it worked well. No wonder the no of passengers on this route is falling.

[FQTLSteve]

Friends of mine were on EasyJet flight to AGP yesterday morning. Boarded, pushing back when ground crew spotted a flat tyre! They all disembarked and eventually departed about 100mins or so later. How did that happen?

[_ShIfTy_]

Puncture on push back.

[VentureGo]

https://www.united.com/web/en-US/default.aspx?root=1 (http://www.united.com/web/en-US/apps/booking/flight/fareCalendar.aspx?CALD=F)

United must be selling well to New York! - Apart from a few Friday departures (£470 - £860) most days are showing £1500 - £2800. I realise the higher fares of £2800 will be on days the service does not operate direct from NCL.
Does anyone have figures on how the bookings are performing? (Maybe they have sold out all economy class seats!
Can't see many peole booking at over £1200 when there are plenty of indirect options much cheaper.

[pallan]

I have never really seen that many cheap flight only seats available during the week since it went on sale.

What BA and others tend to do is only offer full fare flight only prices and sell off the cheap seats in flight and hotel packages. If you were to look at a package to NY on expedia for example, for 4 nights in NY departing 10th August, for a mid star hotel and direct flights from NCL it is around £1100 per person. Flight only for the same dates is £1260pp so MORE than a package!

So it could be selling well, or, all the cheap fare buckets have been bought up by Expedia and other travel companies for packages.

[HH6702]

Hi

Yes the prices have been high since the start which is good if they are selling
I last looked about a week ago at the first 6 weeks and loads look to be around 45% full.

Now I know people will say this isn't good but you haven't got the business people booking yet as too early they will be more last minute

Also what is the break even figures. .

AGAIN something we never know however there maybe a deal on cargo also which will also bring in money just like the Emirates flights








QUOTE=pallan;8935737]I have never really seen that many cheap flight only seats available during the week since it went on sale.

What BA and others tend to do is only offer full fare flight only prices and sell off the cheap seats in flight and hotel packages. If you were to look at a package to NY on expedia for example, for 4 nights in NY departing 10th August, for a mid star hotel and direct flights from NCL it is around £1100 per person. Flight only for the same dates is £1260pp so MORE than a package!

So it could be selling well, or, all the cheap fare buckets have been bought up by Expedia and other travel companies for packages.[/QUOTE]

[EK77WNCL]

The US carriers are supposed to be notorious for really good management of flight prices, especially United (although maybe not so much on their domestic flights where they just kind of dump seats into the market to get the competitors out) but I remember reading somewhere about a computer algorithm-y thingy at UA that looks at each individual flight and weighs up every last cost so that they can charge down to the cent the correct price to turn a profit...

With that in mind I'd be confident in saying anywhere from 50-60% LF's will be turning a profit for them

[CabinCrewe]

50% LF profitable. I wouldnt have thought so, cargo or otherwise, even with a full small Business First cabin (which again is unlikely) paying flexible full fare. Its going to have to be > than the now established industry wide 70%, all things taken into account including costs involved in setting up an international outstation. But its far to early to be hailing it a success based on a seat map lottery. Give it 6 months + to get a more accurate picture.

[ATNotts]

With that in mind I'd be confident in saying anywhere from 50-60% LF's will be turning a profit for them

You have got to be joking! If the front end isn't filled then that sort of load factor will result in the service lasting the season, and no more.

Look at US Airways and PHL-BHX. Loads were great, yields apparently less so, and the service last one season - and only the high summer season at that.

As usual, it's not load factor that drives a service it's yield.

As for cargo; on a 757 - forget it as a major revenue earner. it's a totally different animal to the B777.

[mockingjay]

It would not surprise me if most of the biz cabin is free upgrades to star gold/1k etc members. It's bums on seats but not ones at are going to make you any money as with a lot of US carriers. One of the reasons why the new AA A319s have just 8 F seats!

[GrahamK]

There's never been much of a Star presence at the NCL end, so I'd imagine there won't be too much in the way of Gold upgrades at this side of the pond anyway, the airport seems to be promoting the route heavily on social media which should hopefully help with the success of the route.

Profitable after one season though, not a chance