NEWCASTLE - 8

[JonnyH]

These cringeworthy dreams are getting worse week by week.

We're all happy to talk about news and rumours but these "dreams" are becoming ridiculous.

Let's talk about these non-existent plans to extend the runway for all these long haul operators waiting to claw theirselves into the huge, potential long-haul market from NCL. :ugh:

[pallan]

I've been following this forum for a while and have occasionally posted and have to say I agree, it's no longer a rumours forum, more a spotters dream forum nowadays. Just to pick up on a few things mentioned lately:

Virgin - Personally I do actually think Virgin could maybe make an A330 to Orlando work say 3 times a week, especially selling tickets through it's Virgin Holidays arm however where is the 'rumour' that this may happen? I haven't seen anything anywhere which even remotely suggests it as a possibility?

EK - 1) 2nd daily: Again, a possibility. There's no denying the route is doing well or else it wouldn't operate daily with a 77W but just consider how many other destinations Emirates operate to AND how many they probably wish to serve in the next few years. They may have a lot of a/c on order but I dare say the majority of these deliveries are already allocated to new/existing routes which are more important than NCL. Also, NCL isn't that consistent, some months the loads are low 60's, some they are mid/high 80's (based on 428 seats a day). Yes, loads aren't the be all and end all but considering other routes which are more consistent, they will probably see any upgrade/additional services before NCL.
2) A380, again similar issues. They may have a lot on order but most will have probably been allocated by now and with Emirates saying they wish to have all N. American services A380, this could potentially take up 15-20 a/c per day. Then, just thinking about the UK alone, you're probably looking at LGW and MAN going all A380 as well as probably BHX and GLA going at least 1 A380 p/day before NCL is even considered. I just can't see it ever happening.

Norwegian - currently having major problems at LGW, especially long haul. Next year will be more of a consolidation year for them with few new (net) additions to the fleet. They couldn't make LPL work and are rumoured to be considering MAN but having their doubts. Can't see NCL happening any time soon.

Vueling - yes, they are expanding fast and have new a/c coming in all the time but they again aren't at many other big UK and European airports yet and easy jet are already on the route. They are starting MAN soon, so it's a possibility maybe in a few years but can't see it any time soon.

And then there's NY...I won't even start....:ugh:

Plus, where are all these new routes coming from that would be 'perfect' from NCL on the 787/350? Who will operate them, which routes have the demand?

Don't get me wrong, I have always lived in the North East and have used NCL at least once a year all my life and am a big supporter of the airport, but I think people need to start appreciating what NCL actually has rather than turning the forum into constant debate about rumours/dreams that realistically probably aren't going to happen anytime soon...

There's my 2 cents for all it's worth!

[INeedTheFull90]

BCN will not support two airlines. The spotters may be happy seeing the grey and yellow brigade in town but all that will happen is that yields would become trash and the route would be at risk. This will put LOCAL jobs at risk if the other operator closes the route or worse, its NCL base.

Orlando is covered already. No way would a thrice weekly very seasonal service work from NCL.

Again Norwegian if any base ie significant non-based operation were to occur the locally based carriers would be harmed and when DY go bust NCL will be left with nothing.

I think people need to ask themselves what and why when they come up with suggestions. What the new airline would bring to a route and why they should do it. If it is to bring lower fares then that is no good for the longevity of a route or airline operation. Look at Murcia. It was flown perhaps 4/5 times a week between two airlines. Now look at it.

Please don't anyone mention the N word!

[TSR2]

Norwegian - currently having major problems at LGW, especially long haul.

What sort of problems are Norweigen having at Gatwick ?

[pallan]

In terms of long haul, look at their on time performance from LGW the last two weeks. Many, many delays, with one I think even stretching to 48 hours and them not providing hotels for people - there's a long thread on airliners.net about their long haul 787 problems (actually quite an interesting read!)
In terms of short haul they seem to be doing well at Gatwick, but that's because the demand is there, it simply isn't at NCL

[LiamNCL]

Guys let just appreciate what we have , we are a regional airport and im very proud to see my city on international destination boards ! EK will go 2 daily someday but until it happens just appreciate the fact we have a 777 in every day :ok:
In my opinion we should be looking at trying to get Thomson to maybe add Montego Bay sometime soon now the 787 has started , to add that extra long haul choice like at BHX MAN and LGW :) or maybe Thomas Cook to do a LAS flight like at GLA ? Thats more likely to be acheivable in the short term for NCL longhaul

[ash666]

I would like to see someone (?KLM) do NCL-Frankfurt as it sounds as though that is as big a hub as anywhere in Europe, including LHR.

[TSR2]

Thanks for that information.

[ATNotts]

I would like to see someone (?KLM) do NCL-Frankfurt as it sounds as though that is as big a hub as anywhere in Europe, including LHR.

More plausible than some of the sillier destinations suggested, but why KLM? They are not members of Star Alliance, and therefore as a hub it's pretty useless to them, and anyway all they'd be doing is diluting business from their AMS operation.

Benefit that NCL has over airports such as BHX is that it has a connection to the UK hub (LHR) by it's principal airline - BA, and this somewhat reduces the demand for hubbing in FRA. Also, FRA is one of the less appealing airports to transfer through - I used to do it a lot so I know!

[ash666]

Yes, you are correct that it would take business away from AMS and KLM's long haul flights but if not them anyone would do as long as they have reliable time keeping with connecting flights to catch.

[Jamesair]

Thomsons have already added Montego Bay for Winter 2014/15

[GrahamK]

Plus any EK expansion is probably decades away at nthe minute. it very rarely operates with a 428 seater at the moment, 90% of the time it has been using a 3 clkass a/c with significantly reduced Y seating capacity

[LiamNCL]

My bad i never heard anything about Montego bay , But airlines like Thomson are our best bet for extra long haul destinations for now

Correct , Emirates expansion will come when it comes and until then lets just wait for whatever new routes we get

[VentureGo]

Interesting comments re. Newcastle's ability for growth and fanciful wish lists compared to realistic route expansion. - However I have a copy of 95/96 Winter Timetable which shows Newcastle enjoyed such routes as Bergen, Stavanger & Oslo by Braathens (SAS) Boeing 737 a/c on a daily basis! Brussels 4 times Daily (Sabena/Brussels Airlines), Caledonian weekly to GOA, India, Weekly Orlando by Airtours etc....
Newcastle enjoyed a peak of over 5.6m passengers in 2007 (Without Emirates & organic growth!) compared to 4.4m last year. Since 20007 Teeside has virtually closed apart from KLM & Eastern, but populations have increased so where has all the demand gone? - LCC's via EasyJet & Jet2 have increased! Bristol!!!has overtaken NCL!
Could it be Newcastle is just too expensive? I'm aware of at least 3 families travelling up to Edinburgh and one other travelling via LeedsBradford to save hundreds of pounds!
Newcastle, I believe has the market & opportunity to grow beyond 8m pax in TODAY's market.
Mix of 1/3rd each Business, Leisure & LCC is about right, but more marketing and promotion is needed.

[10 DME ARC]

Venture its all been done before, said before!! Please look back......

[Jamesair]

JET 2 ...SUMMER15

Alicante is now showing as 10flts weekly
Pula and Venice are still not showing.

[EK77WNCL]

I think it's all cause and effect, it requires time and dedication from the airlines, along with advertising to get people to travel and let the market mature, then they can keep growing doing the same, as Emirates has done, and will continue to do for many years. Since the downturn, I think airlines have convinced themselves that high end and long haul and city/business routes won't work at NCL because they people who would use the routes have also convinced themselves of the same! They then use EDI/LBA/MAN and just get used to having to do that. There is no reason I can see why LH doesn't have at least a daily E190 to FRA instead of that God awful service to Dusseldorf. EZY at NCL has been and will continue to b a disappointment, TOM/TCX downsizing is a real shame and LS.... We will see, it really could go either way.

I just worry because NCL has gone from one of the fastest to (probably) one of the slowest growing airports in the UK and I just cannot think why! As above, I can guess, but I know bugger all...

[All names taken]

With the greatest of respect I think your final comment is probably your most accurate.
At the age of 16, what qualifies you to refer to a NCL-DUS service as 'God awful'??
You are of course entitled to your views but please at least try to substantiate them.

[ash666]

So what is the market for Dusseldorf? Damned if I can think who goes there.

[crewmeal]

With respect to the spotters and dreamers on this thread remember this. If a carrier sees a market in a route from A to B then they will look at it and possibly 'dip their toe in the water'. They won't be looking on here to see what wishful thinkers want. A good example of this is the China Southern route that has 3 charter flights from BHX. If it works they may schedule regular flights at a later date. Whilst the charterer bears all costs for these flights, CZ might think a regular schedule is worth operating. If not they won't.

[SWBKCB]

In all this hand wringing, nobodies mentioned the obvious - look at the significant economic indicators and you'll find the north east down the bottom, and then you will understand why airports like Bristol have grown faster.

Oh, and somebody remind me again how long the DUS service has been running...

[pallan]

Just to add to something I said yesterday about appreciating what Newcastle has.

I remember a couple of months back, BA announced an increase in flights over the summer. It may only have been an extra 2/3(?) flights a week but coming from an airline which is limited in its SH fleet and is limited slots wise at LHR, this showed a massive confidence in support of NCL and I remember it got about 3 posts in response before it was back to.... 'Lets get Norwegian here' or mourning the possible loss of 757's (which is actually a good thing for NCL if 2 a/c are replaced with 3 737's as there will be better yields and potentially more routes opened up AND more longer lasting routes as a result of correct size aircraft on them).

Also in the monthly figures, the only thing that ever seems to be commented on by some, not all, is EK's figures - not BA or KLM for example who carry much more pax in/out of NCL

Its all well and good having realistic dreams and sharing rumours but picking destinations out of thin air and saying 'x could make this work' is not a rumour

[MerchantVenturer]

Bristol!!!has overtaken NCL!

With the exclamation marks it seems the poster might be surprised but in terms of annual passenger numbers BRS overtook NCL in 2005 see (CAA stats) and the gap has gradually widened ever since to the current 4.46 mppa/6.23 mppa.

SWBKCB is correct in citing economic indicators -the Bristol region is one of the most economically vibrant in the country with a large number of comparatively well-off leisure travellers and also draws in two million of its annual passenger numbers from Wales, Devon and Cornwall (CAA stats again). This is why, even with a postage stamp sized airport physically, poor surface connectivity and sometimes challenging weather conditions in the 600 feet high 'mountains' of North Somerset on top of which BRS sits, the airport is the only one of the UK's top ten to have seen passenger number growth every year from and including 2010.

It's largely reliant on easyJet though and to a lesser extent Ryanair and now has no long haul following Continental's pull-out in 2010 and Thomson's axing of its transatlantic charters from this summer. So even there not everything in the garden is rosy.

NCL was mentioned in the context of BRS in the BRS thread the other day when the Middle East was being discussed. The thought was put that Turkish Airlines to Istanbul would be a more likely candidate than one of the MEB3, not least because their aircraft would be a better fit operationally at BRS.

A poster who is not a regular on the BRS thread but who makes valued contributions elsewhere on PPRuNe ventured the opinion that NCL would probably be ahead of BRS in Turkish's pecking order. I asked what led him/her to this conclusion having regard to the fact that NCL already has Emirates but so far there has been no reply. I don't necessarily disagree with that assessment but I was interested to learn the thinking behind it.

[GrahamK]

WRT Jet2, Pula had previously been on sale for S15, so I guess along with VCE, that it has been dropped.

[Quayside_blue]

Longtime lurker. Dusseldorf is well located in Germany's most populous state of Nordrhein-Westfalia. Would estimate around 20 million people live within 1 hour of the airport and it is well served by road and rail. Reasonable to assume the flight attracts people going to both places. Not to mention good onward connections to Germany and eastern Europe.

The flight has been going as long as I can remember. On the pax numbers it seems to be doing ok, nothing fancy but steady increases going by the last few reports posted on here.

Prices have come down slightly since being taken on by Germanwings though I guess it would take quite a surge in demand to get them to put anything more than a CRJ 900 at present. Thats what about 90 seats and the A319s they use out of other UK airports hold circa 130?

[GrahamK]

This winter also see's NCL-DUS remain at 6 weekly, whilst GLA-DUS is reduced to 4 weekly

[SWBKCB]

Confirmation of post 5214

Jet2.com launches four new routes from Newcastle Airport for summer 2015 - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/jet2com-launches-four-new-routes-7548219)

[INeedTheFull90]

So is Air Malta no more at NCL? The spotters won't be happy about that.

[SWBKCB]

They didn't pull out when EZY started so why should they stop now? Have Jet2 got the Thomas Cook and Thomson pax?

[INeedTheFull90]

Just checked the Air Malta website and flights not book able. Perhaps they are yet to release their flights.

That route does not need three airlines. Overcapacity looms and yields will trash. It is not sustainable.

[fl dutchman]

At the moment Air Malta still showing as flying for Thomson next summer.

[skyman771]

GrahamK
it very rarely operates with a 428 seater at the moment, 90% of the time it has been using a 3 class a/c with significantly reduced Y seating capacity
Is this not influenced by other factors,? i.e. performance restrictions on high LF's & warmer summer weather?
Also it's not that difficult for EK to influence pax demand at NCL through their web pricing from other departure points. Takes a lot of "bums on seats" to fill all this additional A380 capacity..........:(

[CabinCrewe]

Doesnt seem to be as much similar Y capacity fluctuations and reductions on the other UK routes. I dont think a 7 hour route has that much effect on performance of a 777 even from NCLs relatively short runway.

[LiamNCL]

LS645 EMA - PSA on its way into NCL , done a few circles after takeoff from EMA then headed north ?

[GrahamK]

skyman771, no runway restrictions afaik. I don't know whether EK have a number of 2 class 77Ws in maintenence at the moment though?
Are the English schools on holiday now? I would have assumed that if they were, demand would have boosted. Another example of the NE Economy's weakness, and why the area can't sustain 2 airports despite the MME's supporters wishes.

[10 DME ARC]

it very rarely operates with a 428 seater at the moment, 90% of the time it has been using a 3 class a/c with significantly reduced Y seating capacity
In July eleven two class machines operated the route! With a fleet of appox 144+ B777's and only 18 two class aircraft I think you will see the a good portion of three class plus odd 200 chucked in!

[VentureGo]

LS645 EMA - PSA on its way into NCL , done a few circles after takeoff from EMA then headed north ?

Aircraft was G-GDFT (gone tech?) - Passengers have continued journey from NCL on G-CELU at 8.30 this morning

[SWBKCB]

Isn't this just the usual low season figures we see at this time every year??

[ATNotts]

Isn't this just the usual low season figures we see at this time every year??

Exactly that, this year accentuated by Ramadan coinciding with the "unpleasant" time of year weatherwise across the subcontinent. People who know don't travel to India / Pakistan in high summer too wet, and too hot.

All Emirates routes from UK suffer in the same way.

[nclops]

Quote:
LS645 EMA - PSA on its way into NCL , done a few circles after takeoff from EMA then headed north ?

GGDFT tech problem after take off from EMA. Diverted to NCL to change onto GCELU as this aircraft spare in NCL this morning.

[10 DME ARC]

EK - Plus DXB was only operating on one runway May 1st -July 20th so lots of flight reductions and hence less connections!

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah EK always suffers in the summer, people think Dubai is too hot (honestly I think a lot of it is in peoples minds but I understand heat isn't for everyone), so the pax they do get are either off home for the summer if in education over here or on a holiday to popular destinations such as Thailand, Australia, Indian Ocean etc. I.e I'm off NCL-DXB-BKK on Monday, will let you know how the loads are.

I don't see why they don't just sell F from NCL, you'd think if most are 3 class anyway, if it goes empty, it goes empty, but if passengers book F, bonus for EK! It ups the load factors as well.

[fl dutchman]

If the seats in first were sold they would have to cater for those pax and also extra crew etc, so there would be a cost associated with it. If they thought that money could be made I am sure they would sell First.
Maybe they will one day.

[EK77WNCL]

How many extra crew does it require to sell F compared to higher density 2 class? There already seems to be loads of crew onboard.

[EK77WNCL]

My flight on Monday was pretty much full, less than 10 seats free, my mam got lucky and had one next to her, I was surprised and pleased to see the whole Tanzanian Commonwealth Games team and all associated members flying out from Newcastle too, very friendly people.

[Jamesair]

That's good news, they must have got a better deal out of NCL than Glasgow.

[VickersVicount]

GLA has been overbooked for the past 7 days and many were offered alternatives on routes with extra capacity

[EK77WNCL]

Still good to see, I hope your "routes with extra capacity" comment wasn't a sly dig at NCL there ;) because although there was easily 20 of them, the A/C would still only have had 30 empty seats had they not been there. Most importantly, IIRC there was 1 spare seat in J. I know this because unfortunately we were some of the last on and had to board from the front through J (in row 49) an there were 39 somewhat displeased faces looking back at us. Notice the error there, there were 2 who greeted us with massive smiles and a hello because I think it was their first flight in J, they looked overwhelmed by it all (as I was my first time), but the "regulars"... The less said about them the better, someone has to be last.

[Boris1]

Mods may as well change the title of this thread to EK35/36 thread. Last time i checked, i'm sure there were more airlines at NCL.

[pallan]

There are indeed more airlines operating out of NCL...shame they are rarely mentioned!

On Page 265 alone, 13/20 posts were EK related :ugh:

And NCL does have a lot of extra capacity surely? The pax numbers and the frequent use of a 3 class a/c show this...?

On another note, the BA flights I was on in Feb had 1 spare seat each...this must mean they are going to send an A380 to NCL ;) (light-hearted joke)

[GrahamK]

Quite ironic given how hard the Airport pushed for that advertising space at Heathrow :ouch:

[Jamesair]

With the campaign at LHR it must at least put the NE in travellers minds for a future trip to the UK. Can do nothing but good for the region.

I was in Copenhagen on Monday, nice to see NCL on the destination board, leaving just before my SAS flight to LHR.

[HH6702]

Yes there is other airlines however there is little news coming from them all.

Yes TOM, LS and TCX all starting new routes.

As for the mainly EZY what are they adding and how are they supporting the north east??? Someone please remind me who easyjet are?

As for seats from ncl just been looking to travel agents looking for a 3/4 night holiday in a weeks time and there is nothing. All 7 or 14 night flights.

Easyjet to palma however for 2 adults wants 75.00 out but 216 for the return I think not!!!

Thomson have a good choice off 650 for 2 adults for 4 nights in palma half board. There is only 5 seats left on plane and 1 room in hotel so the holiday planes are full!!!!

More choice is needed and extra flights during school holidays from ncl..

Same holiday is on sale from manchester and gatwick but they want an extra 150.00 per person.

[SWBKCB]

As for the mainly EZY what are they adding and how are they supporting the north east??? Someone please remind me who easyjet are?

Really? Supporting the North East? Since when did commercial airlines become social workers? Good grief... :rolleyes:

[fa2fi]

HH6702: Who are easyJet? Well they were until very recently NCLs biggest airline in terms of passenger numbers. That may or may not be the case now but if not they are still a very significant player at NCL. They may not add weird and wonderful destinations nor are they sexy but they provide regular and reliable service to popular routes and don't shut down in winter (like some). They also provide sustainable employment for many local people not to mention the supply at chain. Again - year round and that's how they support the North East. It's all well and good having all these destinations but if the airlines(s) that fly them practically shut down in winter then it ain't all that good is it? The 'others' have cabin crew of 5/6 month contracts and pilots on 70% contracts. EZY have mainly full time permanent crew with a few 10 month cabin crew and a few part time pilots (read one or two).

As for pricing like all airlines they use dynamic pricing based on supply and demand and fare bucketing. I know where this is going - a big conspiracy whereby they charge cheap fares outbound (the fares they advertise) but hammer you in the return is utter nonsense. Particularly if you're looking at half term or any times where there are spikes in demand. Go on any airline and you will find EXACTLY the same.

If you've been looking at EZY flights over the next few weeks and there's nothing available then it's a good sign that flights are full. After all it's the summer holidays and it's pretty last minute. Of course the flights are going to be full. Interestingly I just looked on the website and found four/five night holidays to Malaga, Faro and Malta all for the £200-250 range. Not too bad for a fairly late booking at the busiest time of year.

I'm off to AGP in November on TOM which is part of a package. Looked at holiday only and getting my own flights there and EZY were £35 cheaper return full price if I was to buy a flight only. But doing so would mean the holiday only (without flight) would be more expensive and not worth it. And hence I'm going TOM. But the actual flights are cheaper with EZY. And the onboard experience is exactly the same.

[Jamesair]

EZY have certainly introduced some new routes to NCL in recent times, i.e. Jersey, Tenerife, Malta, Amsterdam and most recently, twice daily London (Gatwick), plus switching an A319 for an A320. Even though it is a three a/c base there are more flights involving "w" patterns from other bases. As previously stated, they are a year round operation.

[Boris1]

'Yes there are other airlines but there is no news from them'


There's no news from Emirates!! It's just the same posts by the same people about pax figures, pax figures and pax figures. I feel like I'm forgetting something. Oh yes....

PAX FIGURES!

[Lord Spandex Masher]

EZY have certainly introduced some new routes to NCL in recent times, i.e... and most recently, twice daily London (Gatwick)

I don't think you can claim easy introduced that route, nor is it new.

[EK77WNCL]

I feel like I need to say this:

I've never come across so much animosity between different people who all have the same interest, just because you prefer the boring side of the hobby doesn't mean you should be able to look down on those of us who like the exciting side. I justify this because I prefer going out spotting (SHOCK HORROR!!!), flying aircraft that I am personally fond of/that are my last chance to fly on, thinking about (often very optimistic) ideas for airlines and airports I have a personal liking for, and observing how my favourite airlines and airports are doing AND NOT sitting around all day, thinking about why routes CAN'T work, why they AREN'T feasible and why airports like Newcastle SHOULDN'T have the services they do.

In the same breath I reiterate:
Emirates will continue to expand at Newcastle and we will end up with more than 1 daily flight, be it 10 weekly or 2 daily.

New York will happen on a scheduled basis at some point, with some airline.

We will see at least one large global played from the Middle east/Asia region, be it TK, EY, QR

Some Long haul will start to make a comeback, lets see how TOM do with Jamaica coming up.

But also, NCL's 2 undeniably most "faithful"/"stable" airlines, BA and KLM will continue to stay strong and hopefully we might see something more from them, I do hope they get some competition to bring costs down a bit, but with EZY, KLM have shown they can more than face up to it. AF have also been faithful to NCL but compared to when EZY was on the route the fares are extortionate, and LH is quite disappointing to be honest. EI and SK, I'm sure they will both be sticking around this time.

And finally, I find this one more tentative than all the rest, I HOPE that NCL will see more services on the leisure front. EZY have been the only ones to stay pretty much the same in terms of seats offered, whereas TCX, TOM and now LS are all reducing seat count by using smaller aircraft (LS slightly evened out by the addition of an extra aircraft). But I hope maybe for 2016 LS could add another 738 or 752 which in turn could encourage expansion from TOM or TCX whether it is a new aircraft, replacing the leased A320 with their own A321 or leased A321, or getting in other airlines to operate flights for them. This is the one that could go either way but I think after 3 years of decline, now that the airlines have increased their yields new services and expansion should be more attractive to them.

I say this all in confidence, I know 95% of you wont agree and will have a field day picking up on everything that is wrong that this post (in your opinion of course), but I'll be sure to refer back to it in 5 years or more to show I and others have proven you wrong.

Thank you, good day and I am sure you all now know exactly where I stand.

[JonnyH]

You've quoted on your article "I say this on confidence". But surely confidence doesn't make anything you say actually true? Where have you got this information, factually?

At the moment, you say in 10 years time we will have an EK double daily route. Where do you base the confident information from? We have got a decent passenger numbers but there's not huge growth at NCL. Why would we all of a sudden be able to get an extra 300 passengers per day from? It's not like the summer leisure market, people from EDI and GLA won't travel down to take some of our cheaper flights like they do for holidays in the scottish school holidays. So I ask you where does this estimated extra growth of passengers come from because a lot of would be passengers have EK flights from there local airports.

Perhaps KIN could happen with TOM long haul but there's other destinations that if TOM got the choice to choose from out of their current long haul market they would choose from.

In regards to other carriers starting up other operations on a direct basis to NYC, IST etc. I don't think this is going to happen. As many, many people have said there's no need to have this. We have the NCL-DXB, NCL-LHR and NCL-AMS to connect passengers and people are happy to do that. One of the only logical routes would be a NCL-MAD, that would give passengers extra options to connect to even more long haul destinations at a more competitive price.

I don't feel the need to reply to anything else. In all due respect, I completely appreciate and respect your opinions and views but I do think your post and saying your confident of those views is ridiculous. Nobody knows what will happen next year never mind 10 years!

[Jamesair]

My comment was specifically relating to EZY and yes, London, Gatwick is a new route for EZY and is an expansion at NCL for that carrier.
Gatwick was a route previously operated by Flybe and, of course, is not new to NCL

[EK77WNCL]

JonnyH, I completely agree with what you are saying I would also want proof/sources etc. However I have non, or at least I have very little and the little that I do have I am not at liberty to divulge, you'll probably just have to wait 5+ years and I'll let you know then ;) sorryyyyy.

I am going out on a limb completely with that post but they are most of my beliefs and hopes for Newcastle, all of which I am confident have potential.

I was wondering, from the tone of your comment about KIN, are you aware that Thomson are starting Montego Bay from NCL in January?

None of this is intended to be agressive or confrontational, although I know that some members have a penchant for replying in said tone, must be personal taste really.

Anyway, as you say, we can only wait, nobody knows what is happening behind the scenes or what will happen in the future and that goes for everybody's predictions both good and bad.

I'd finally just like to drop in the amount of people who said in 2006/2007 that Emirates would never come/would never be more than 3 weekly/daily will never work/the ever so famous "I'll give them 6 months" etc.

Regards
Wiggy

[Lord Spandex Masher]

You specifically said;
EZY have certainly introduced some new routes to NCL in recent times

A comment specifically relating to easy would have made sense on the easyJet specific thread. However, as you qualified your easyJet specific comment with "to NCL", which is superfluous on the NCL specific thread anyway, you implied that easy had introduced the route to the airport.

They didn't.

[Boris1]

ahhhh, the infamous 'I have very little sources that i am not at liberty to divulge'

So you have none then.

This is what really makes NCL stand out from other airports, spotters thinking they know what will happen, when it will happen etc.

NYC - NCL are doing nothing at the moment to pursue any form of NCL-NYC route, make of that what you like, but from my point of view, they've realised its a dead end and have moved on. A US Airline will not even contemplate starting a flight into NCL unless they are assured it will earn them a heap load of money, otherwise the operating costs will make it utterly pointless.

EK (AGAIN!!) We've all seen the news paper reports saying they want to add a second flight bla bla bla bla. WANT and WILL are 2 different things, and i quote from said article

'There are lots of ifs and buts, and it isn’t guaranteed, but if we continue to have months like March we could see the introduction of double daily flights within a few years.'

So, i would love to know where this whole 'EK WILL add a second flight' is coming from, because i have just read the words 'IF and COULD'

NCL will never be the long haul stronghold some people expect it to be. It has been said many a time, there are to many gaps in the European market at NCL, that should take priority, not long haul routes left right and centre, and where will all of these huge planes go? Seeing as though only a few stands are capable of handling such big aircraft.

[pallan]

No one is saying to not have dreams or wishes of what you want to see but its gotten to a stage where the entire thread is a constant of 'when will EK go double daily' 'when will someone start NY' 'when will x set up here because they could easily make it work'

Just look at the Manchester and Gatwick threads for example where they talk about actual current routes or planned routes which atleast have a chance of starting. And yes, there may be little news at NCL at the moment but there's nothing from EK either or NY for that matter, nor has there been any new hints for a long while now.

Think about EK - if they went double daily that would mean over 50,000 seats a month - where is the demand coming from when it doesn't reach 20,000 some months at the moment. It is doing well at 1 daily, no one can deny that, and it will continue to grow but I can't see it needing a second daily for atleast 6-8 years, so why not talk about it when it happens or when stronger rumours happen rather than every day on here?

I've said in the past how much of a big supporter I am of NCL but some of these routes would simply never work - and people saying that does not mean that they don't support NCL, it means they are being realistic.

Just appreciate what NCL has and if a new route happens, it happens and if it doesn't it doesn't - an entire thread dedicated to what some people want to see without any information/sources to support quite frankly gets a bit boring after a while...

[INeedTheFull90]

My personal opinion is that I doubt NYC will ever be more than a couple of shopping weekend trips for the following reasons:

-United decided that it could make more money in LHR than it could from BRS with its vast catchment area and being in a very affluent area.
-NYC is reachable just up the road in EDI or a couple of hours away in MAN.
-As the US majors scale back their 757 operations, competition between destinations to be served by the 757 will be fierce.
-Once the 757 goes they are left with options - all of which are just too much jet.
-Lack of inbounds. This would be North Easterners going on their jollies and I can see very few inbound visitors from the US. The NE is not a tourist hotspot. Before anyone jumps in listing tourist attractions, I don't doubt there will be some visitors, just not enough to fill a 757 regularly.
-Regular and flexible options via AMS, LHR, DUB and CDG. Yes the flight would be direct but the business folk want choice.

[GrahamK]

Speaking of EK, they are using a standard 772 today, for the first time since the service started IIRC. Was there not performance restrictions with this a/c type, hence the use of 772LRs and 77Ws?

[Jamesair]

JET 2 SUMMER 2015

Tenerife increased from 3 to 4 weekly with flights operating Tu/Fr/Sa/Su.

[GAXLN]

GrahamK, second time one of the very low MTOW 772's has been in I think. My wife flew on one from Newcastle in October 2012 on her way to Nairobi. Certainly very rare to see one of these three in the UK. Should have the spotters out :ok:

[INeedTheFull90]

Oh dear god. Give me strength. EK35/36 is surely worthy of it's own thread.

I wonder what variant of the 777 it is tomorrow. I wonder what the vegan main dish will be on it next Thursday, I wonder what TV shows will be on it in July 2017. Will it be double daily. Will it be an A380? Who knows, but one thing is for sure and that is the fact that the Newcastle forum will be dominated by boring EK35 craic.

I think I need some time out.

[VickersVicount]

yip... all of that could be discussed in the Spotters forum.

[GrahamK]

Ok, so if we're not allowed to discuss goings on at the airport, whats the best pub to drink at in the city nowadays? :ugh:

[Jamesair]

Well said Graham.....the mods will be watching this thread, it is sliding into hypercritical and petty comments again.

The majority of us enjoy taking part in this thread and making our contributions where necessary.

[JonnyH]

Good to see the increased rotations for TFS. Not an awful increase in capacity though. Could we yet see more increased rotations to ACE? I wouldn't be awfully confident about them increasing rotations to LPA and definitely not FUE, however.

It'll be sad to see the 757s go.

[LiamNCL]

Just a heads up , Another LOT 787 due in tomorrow morning , SP-LRE from Calgary

[EK77WNCL]

See the MOD has gone up in the world from the clapped out 767's of old to dreamliners.

I think with the extra 2 A/C next summer (or is it 1 I've lost track), IIRC LS have some spare capacity and a couple of routes are going to see increased frequencies.

GrahamK, not a pub, however I have seen/heard that Tuhiki on Fridays at Tiger Tiger can be a pretty good night out.

Tuhiki | Home (http://www.tuhiki.com/)

[LiamNCL]

The 787 headed for brize norton instead , was showing as NCL on FR24 nevermind

[Jamesair]

It also showed on flight arrivals on the website

[VentureGo]

Flight from Calgary/Goose Bay) Did Arrive at Newcastle at about 7.30am under a ZT flight code but was a Boeing 767 (Titan Airways.)

[N707ZS]

Rumour has it that Newcastle are making very little money on these flights if any.

[highwideandugly]

N707zs and your point is?

I don't think many airports make much money out of flights these days.most revenue comes from airport retail income I think?

[N707ZS]

They are not making money from the flights is the point.

[SWBKCB]

So does the rumour has it as making very little money or not making money?

If the flights aren't making a loss, I don't see the problem - even a little extra income is welcome, especially as it wouldn't have been planned for. :ok:

[Jamesair]

AER LINGUS REGIONAL July Dublin traffic topped 7,000 in the month the highest pax figure since the start of the service.

[10 DME ARC]

N707ZS - Its satisfying that the airport are not making huge profits from peoples pockets! These are MOD flights so the tax payers of the UK pick up the tab! I know from my time at NCL that the airport has always gone out of their way to help the forces.

[CentreFix25]

They'll have negotiate a deal and settled somewhere where they're both happy. Every operator drives a hard bargain, it's business. The most important thing is the flight landed, therefore the airport we're happy with whatever they were getting out of it - might have been a few quid or just good PR.

[N707ZS]

Interesting to see people defend the airport even thought they don't have a clue what they are talking about.

[highwideandugly]

N707ZS I get the feeling there is a little jealousy and anger that the flights have gone from DTV ??
Its never nice to see our competitors take traffic away but hey..thats life.
Your discussion should be with Peel and DTV authorities(and on the DTV thread) not here.They are the ones whose policies have driven DTV traffic away..not fellow enthusiasts!!

sorry for the thread hijack..will try and wind him in!:cool:

[10 DME ARC]

N707ZS - Yer I know nothing.....mmmm.....the 32 years(yes feel old thinking about it!) in the aviation business, 18 spent at NCL!!! Many years spent flying out of MME. You are correct I know nothing........ Get a life!

[GrahamK]

Apologies in advance to the whingers :E

Provisional Figures for Selected routes for July:
Gatwick: 10304 +40%
Heathrow: 41350 -2%
Aberdeen: 2737 +7%
Belfast City: 3048 -27%
Belfast Int: 16131 +2%
Bristol: 15569 +10%
Southampton: 9232 +15%

Brussels: 2234
Copenhagen: 1210 +4%
Paris CDG: 14668 +5%
Dusseldorf: 3564 +10%
Cork: 1545 -10%
Dublin: 15131 +37%
Amsterdam: 33486 + 4%
Stavanger: 1840 -12%
Dubai 18726 +9%
Sanford: 2352 -6%
Cancun: 2614 +5%

July pax numbers: 524599 +1.8%, 12 month rolling : 4.47m + 2%.

[Jamesair]

Some very good pax figures and good to see domestic routes picking up again.

[macuser]

Got any figures for Jersey?

[GrahamK]

Jersey was 2407, down 13%. Presumably as a result of withdrawing from the route - can't remember what frequency they operated at last year?

[Jamesair]

Flybe operated 5 weekly rotations to Jersey

[BFS BHD]

New route to Tunisia from Newcastle next year from May 2015. :ok:

[Jamesair]

That's good news....it's ENFIDHA Weds starts 27th May 2015 dep NCL 0630....arr NCL 1425

Taking into account all of the new destinations announced so far, there will be 82 rotations weekly in 2015 compared to 81 in summer 2014.

[fl dutchman]

Will that be on 3x 738 and 3x 733 for 2015? If so a slight reduction in seats from summer 2014.

[Travel Agent]

Just seen a Jet2 plane abort landing over Cramlington, is that usual at 2500ft+? Been on plenty go arounds before but usually a lot closer to the runway...

[10 DME ARC]

Travel Agent - You gotta go round you go around! What ever caused the go round, on airfield or aircraft, could not be sorted in the time remaining airborne or perhaps the separation(vortex or radar) from preceding aircraft was eroding and a timely re-position(early go around) was needed?? No idea what happened but 4nm final is not that early???

[fa2fi]

It'll probably in papers so we'll know exactly why it happened when the traumatised people whose lives have been ruined contact the press like this pair:

Couple say honeymoon was ruined by 'scary' landing - Manchester Evening News (http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/couple-say-honeymoon-ruined-scary-7646134)

[shearer5]

sound like a pair of idiots courting publicity....

why can't they be grateful that the aircrew acted professionally and got them back home safe???

I remember a couple of years ago heading back from Kefalonia when the greek ATC were working slow and the 3 departing flights that night were delayed, there was also a technical fault for the old astraeus iron maiden back to NCL

Birmingham - delayed 1 hour
Manchester - delayed 2 hours
Newcastle - delayed 6 hours

I remember the level of abuse that the Birmingham & Manchester pax give the Thomas cook rep..... whereas the geordies just sat patiently, must be a differently mentality down that way

[ash666]

A lot of dissatisfaction is down to the airport staff and the information given out. Pax do, quite rightly, get very annoyed when they are just told there is a delay (again and again) with no word of explanation or just that God-awful, meaningless cop-out phrase of, "due to operational reasons".

Airlines and airports would be surprised just how much pax are prepared to put up with if only they are told honestly what is going on.

[SWBKCB]

Pax will also be surprised at how little airline staff at the airport often know

[LiamNCL]

Few minor delays today regarding TCX , G-TCDC was a good few hours late from Dalaman ! According to FR24 it was in Athens did it divert there for some reason ?

[fl dutchman]

FR 24 seems a bit unreliable these days. Its showing the LS532 diverted to PMI when in fact it landed at NCL 13.28, 12 mins ahead of schedule (G LSAK i think )
Dont know about TCX.

[LiamNCL]

Just watched the playback and it did indeed divert to ATH , it was heading north west off the coast of turkey before it turned towards Athens over island of Myrina

[nclops]

It diverted to ATH due to a sick passenger on board.

[EK77WNCL]

So, can someone confirm... For Summer 2015, LS is going from:

x4 733, x2 752

to

x4 733, x3 738

Correct??? But negligible increase in rotations

[GrahamK]

New Thomas Cook route for S15, Varna reintroduced from NCL. Flights operate on Thursday evenings

[pallan]

Nice little addition to the S15 schedule.. hopefully a couple more frequency increases and maybe new route announcements to come :)!

On another note travelled to/from Dalaman onboard the leased A320 last week which was comfortable and overall a good airport experience (apart from the packing of an entire plane onto one bus!). We had 3 pilots on board... sat in row 1 and overheard the FO was being checked by an EMA based Senior FO.

Also overheard him say something about one base going all Airbus next year..could have been any from EMA/BHX/MAN (he was talking about all 3 in the same conversation to the FA and I was half asleep ha!)

[LAX_LHR]

Also overheard him say something about one base going all Airbus next year..could have been any from EMA/BHX/MAN (he was talking about all 3 in the same conversation to the FA and I was half asleep ha!)


Its BHX. EMA is already all Airbus and MAN has the B767 fleet as well as the Condor B757's.

[pallan]

Ah I see, thanks for clearing that one up... I did wonder which one it was, didn't think it was MAN but wasn't sure on the other two!

[HH6702]

Hi

Nice to see a new route being added.

So what's been dropped then I'm guessing a turkish flight dalaman back to 6 x weekly??

[GrahamK]

Dalaman still daily. At a guess I'd say the 320 isn't doing any "w" patterns to DSA next summer which frees space up :ok:

[EK77WNCL]

Are we definitely a leased A320 again? Quietly hoping for 3 A321's to try and help cover the drop in seats we are accruing on a yearly basis (although it should be better from 2015 onwards)

[pallan]

As much as I personally would like to see 3 A321's next year, I'm not sure if this will be the case.
On the outbound to Dalaman on 19/08 there were several empty seats (this despite it being peak season). Granted, TCX (and NCL in general) has a lot of seats to Dalaman and the return on 28/08, also the A320, was jam packed however I think the current set up is working well for TCX and other bases (BHX) are going Airbus next year too so these will probably need the A321's.

Also, the leased A320 has been a pretty good performer this year compared to last with very few delays so I personally can see it sticking around for a while

[LiamNCL]

Think in the long run TCX will probably have 3 A321s here but lets not get too greedy ;) mind you they could decorate the A320 a little bit more than just the heart on the tail , Even just putting Thomas cook down the sides ?

Not suprised theres a few spare seats on DLM , Theres surely only so many people you can take to Dalaman and with TOM & LS theres an awful lot of seats to fill

[EK77WNCL]

Had a look through the stats for July today, more drops on quite a lot of leisure routes, but then some had very large increases, Kefalonia and Rhodes surprised me a lot! Overall though NCL pax numbers were up again, have to see how August looks, I think someone said before that the commonwealth games/world cup kept people at home in June/July (similar drops on routes in June) along with smaller A/C from TCX/TOM, but hopefully there were a few people going away August, I know a lot of family and friends who have. May already have been posted, but here are a few that surprised me, and the link to look for yourself.

*I also tend to compare NCL with LBA/EMA/LPL as they are all airports within a similar location of a similar size with a similar reliance on leisure traffic. I'm also only noting double/triple digit changes, please take a look for yourself if you are interested though.

Decreases:
- Paphos.................. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:........................7065.......................... ........... 8882
Charter (TOM/TCX)... 3236.................................... 4603
Scheduled (LS):........ 3829..................................... 4279... (-20%)
EMA -3%, LBA -4%
- Corfu..................... 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 7913..................................... 9542
Charter (TOM/TCX)... 6234..................................... 7324
Scheduled (LS).......... 1679..................................... 2218... (-17%)
EMA +1%, LBA +20%

- Skiathos................. 2014.................................... 2013
Total:....................... 1035.....................................1812... (-43%)
(Interesting to see Kavala on the list with 634 passengers... Not bookable)
-Alicante.................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total:...................... 27800.................................... 31331... (-11%)
- Las Palmas............ 2014...................................... 2013
Total........................ 4686...................................... 5458... (-14%)
- Bodrum................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total....................... 5237....................................... 5789... (-10%)
- Krakow................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total....................... 2271...................................... 3706... (-39%)


Increases:
- Kefalonia................ 2014..................................... 2013
Total (TOM/TCX):..... 2927..................................... 1345... (+118%)
- Kos........................ 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 3297..................................... 1627... (+103%)
- Rhodes.................. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 7264..................................... 5074... (+43%)
- Zakynthos.............. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 6631..................................... 5020
- Funchal.................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total:....................... 2284...................................... 1730... (+32%)
- Reus...................... 2014...................................... 2013
Total........................ 8168....................................... 7148... (+14%)
- Lanzarote.............. 2014....................................... 2013
Total:...................... 8420........................................ 7046... (+20%)
- Fuerteventura........ 2014....................................... 2013
Total:....................... 4470....................................... 3816... (+17%)

Apologies for not keeping up the more in depth analysis, I thought it was a little complicated... Another thought I've had is, are we simply at a crossroads of which holiday destinations are most popular? Or does popularity always vary seasonally? One year Spain sees growth, another year Greece, another year Turkey etc... Quite fascinating.

[VentureGo]

Be interesting to see breakdown of flights for 2005 - 2008 where numbers were higher despite lack of volume through LCCs and Emirates.

Year Passengers Movements
1997 2,642,591 81,279

2004 4,724,263 77,721
2005 5,200,806 77,882
2006 5,431,976 81,655
2007 5,650,716 79,200
2008 5,039,993 72,904
2009 4,587,883 69,254
2010 4,356,130 66,677
2011 4,346,270 64,521
2012 4,366,196 61,006
2013 4,420,839 59,962
(from Wikidedia - Newcastle Airport)

[apaul]

Not sure what you mean by lack of LCC volume in 2005-2008. EasyJet based more aircraft at Newcastle in 2005-2008 than it does now and used to fly to Stansted and Bristol four or more times a day. That would rack up more passenger numbers than a daily longhaul flight to Dubai.

[skyman771]

Venturetogo
A graph of these total annual NCL movements & a bit like House prices in the N.E.:{

[EK77WNCL]

On top of that they used to carry something like 7,000 pax a month to Berlin and over double how many LS currently carry to Krakow, and more. Real shame they didn't have more faith in NCL, what was it 7 based aircraft at the peak? That's more than Jet2 today, and probably operating 3/4 flights per aircraft per day vs about 2 with Jet2.

Potential for a comeback?

There were also other airlines with sizeable operations at Newcastle, such as XL Airways, I'm sure TCX used to be a larger player too. Then there was HLX flying to about 4 (I think) German destinations at their peak. Shame really.

[INeedTheFull90]

EZY will never grow from NCL in terms of based units. All spare frames go to Gatwick, Luton or Bristol. The five new frames coming next year are account for with the new bases in OPO and AMS. With LGW getting the go ahead to increase in based units, then there will always be much more of a likelihood of putting them into LGW. If they can't put them there then it'll go to LTN or BRS. Competition for new aircraft is fierce between bases. If I wanted to get the best return on investment then I too would out them into LGW.

More units would also add to the seasonality issues of NCL. You want the jets so, where where they'll make money year round and that is not NCL. With the current based three jets, increasing yields and load factors whilst reducing winter losses is the more conservative way of growing the base without it ending in tears. Additional growth could happen with switching an A319 for an A320. Eventually that will need to happen as ezy will be a A320 only airline as the A319s are replaced with A320.

Does anyone have figures per airline over the year? I'd be interested to see what the numbers per airlines over the last decade.

[Jamesair]

EZY are also using a/c based at other airports to provide additional flights from NCL, e.g..... a GTW based a/c for the NCL route and other services using a BRS based a/c. I think this will be the EZY way forward for any expansion out of NCL.

The ever decreasing number of movements is interesting although I have detected a slight rise in 2014, maybe someone could confirm (or deny) this.

[Jamesair]

It looks like GermanWings start operating the DUSSELDORF route w.e.f. 18th Sept 14.

[pallan]

Wow, I never realised numbers were that far down on 2007 still.

In terms of pax per airline, you can find out some from Wiki for 2013, but only the ones with sole operators.

So...

BA - 481,307 (-1% on 2012)
EK - 199,025 (+23%)

But not sure on the rest, or compared to previous years. And it is Wiki so not entirely sure how reliable they are!

[Hipennine]

Correlation does not necessarily equate to causation, but the EZY change from a high growth base with 7 a/craft to decline and low level stability began with the arrival of Jet2 on the scene at NCL.

Would total service at NCL have been better had EZY been left to develop without competition ? Prices might have been higher, but there might have been more destinations and more stability.

[INeedTheFull90]

I personally think so. The spotters may be happier with LS being at NCL but in reality they operate many routes and only operate them in summer and usually very infrequently and as others have said they shut down in winter pretty much. Just look at MJV. EZY were twice weekly, LS thrice, now down to one a week and no EZY. Let's hope other routes don't go that way.

[pallan]

This is one reason why I'm always cautious when people say another carrier should be on a route to lower prices or provide competition

It may lower prices, but in the case of LS and EZY, it drove EZY off many of the routes...

Competition isn't always good

[fa2fi]

Yes agree totally. It's profit that's important, not pretty tails lined up at the pier or fancy places on the departure boards.

[TSR2]

Just look at MJV. EZY were twice weekly, LS thrice, now down to one a week and no EZY. Let's hope other routes don't go that way.

Out of curiousity, are you saying there is only one flight per week to MJV ?

[EK77WNCL]

Before LS I'm sure EZY were keen not even to stop at 7 based, I think EZY/LS could have worked well side by side 4/5 A/C each, some competition on leisure routes, but EZY offers advantages on scheduled routes because they offer(ed) much higher frequency than Jet2's 2/3 weekly flights.

I'll take a look on the caa site and do a similar list, can anyone provide the following as there isn't really much definitive on Google:

1. EZY's based A/C increases and decreases, when did they go from 4 to 5 to 6 to 7 aircraft? And when did they come down to 3?
2. Which routes have EZY since dropped from NCL... Paris, Stansted, Krakow, Budapest, Berlin... Any more? And do you know the respective years?
3. Jet2 came onto the scene in 2006 I believe, is this correct?

Also, some more digging I'd like to do:
1. When did XL start flying from NCL? Which year were they at their peak in terms of based units/routes served and how many? Maybe if they operated some routes outside of the norm you could name them?
2. How has TCX's presence changed at NCL since, say 2002?
3. Mytravel, how many based units/routes and which years were they most active? I assume they also plied the more common holiday routes
4. Flyjet, I don't believe they operated that many flights, although NCL was one of their main bases, any info on them?
5. HLX... Which routes did they operate? Over which time period? I'm sure they had a relatively sizeable route map from NCL at one point.
6. Were their any other airlines? Maybe TOM/BY were larger a few years ago, did Onur Air have more presence maybe? Air Portugal and Sata were quite regular I think but I don't really know, this is what I want to find out.

Sorry for the questions, I just want to be able to go through the archives and compile a list of the routes to see what has declined since 2006 and how.

Thank you for any help you may be able to provide

[deltahotel9]

Many of the EZY dropped routes have/had no direct competition in NCL, they were dropped as they believed they could make more money elsewhere, and that's the bottom line, it's a business and while many of us would prefer a larger EZY base they do still offer a good service all year round. I think you need to look at the timing of the EZY decline also, LS moved in after EZY cut back the based units, they weren't the cause of that, and as far as Murcia goes it was an LS route, their first from NCL in fact, long before EZY tried to muscle in on the route. If EZY had really been committed to growing the NCL base they would not have allowed LS to become such a dominant player in the summer months. It's also worth noting that much of the LS summer traffic has been at the expense of the charter operators, they have more than taken up the slack left by XL and probably curtailed growth by TOM/TCX, by which I mean could have had a 4th based unit from either or both by now if it wasn't for LS. For the record that's not a criticism of LS, they do a good job at what they do, and it's good for the airport and passengers to have a 3rd major player in the holiday market.

[SWBKCB]

From memory, and probably some huge generalisations in this lot. Get hold of some old Air North magazines to get the detail:

FlyJet had one 757 based, didn't operate in their own right but did flights for one of the based operators (like the SmartLynx 320 now) - can't remember who for?

The HLX operation was patchy at best - might have had 4 destinations at their max (HAJ, MUC, CGN, STR?), but low frequency and only for a short period of time with lots of chopping and changing of days/times. HAJ was the only consistent long-term (!) operation

Onur were a bigger factor, operating for the bottom feeding tour operators who haven't survived the harder times - same for XL, but XL concentrated on Greece

Many of the foreign operators mentioned where 'filling' in the schedules of the bigger based operators, similar to how 'W' patterns are used. As the big boys have stabilised their bases, these patterns have dropped

Also, in th elate 90's there was usually a TriStar based over the summer flying to the med - even if they only flew twice a day for 4 days a week, at 300+ seats a time, that soon adds up

[GrahamK]

In answer to EK777WNCL's qustions:
1) Can't remember tbh
2) Add Prague, Rome, Ibiza, Copenhagen
3) Yes, initially only offering Murcia IIRC

TCX - Peak based was 4 x 757-200s (2 TCX, 2 x leased)
MYT - Peak was 2 x 321 I think?
FJE - Only operated for a couple of years, and replaced previous Air Scandic operation
XLA - Peak was 2 x 738, and 1 x 757 (leased from Finnair)
HLX - Stuttgart, Cologne and Munich lasted 1/2 seasons. Hannover last wed a bit longer, operated using 735/73G mainly.
TOM - Biggest presence was 1 x 738, 2 x 757. So a/c base is the same size today but less capacity. They've also had 767-200s based in the past

[Travel Agent]

Easyjet also operated Bucharest for about a year in around 2008/2009 if memory serves.

[VentureGo]

Didn't Braathens (Now SAS) have daily services to Oslo, Stavanger & Bergen operated by Boeing 737
Also Caledonian operated weekly flights to Goa in India during the Winter 95/96 season.

[GrahamK]

Braathens for a long time served SVG and OSL on a 6 x weekly basis using initially 732s, then 734s, 735s and 73Gs.

CKT to Goa was on an A320 and was a shared load with GLA. IIRC it operated via Amman and Bahrain (and possibly somewhere in Turkey). During the summer that year, American Trans Air operated a weekly JFK service using 757s

[VentureGo]

Thomson Dreamliner TUIE is delayed 5+ Hours (expected 11.30)from Orlando this morning. TUIB is being sent up from Gatwick to operate Cancun.Take off delayed to 11.00.

[Jamesair]

Toronto is another lost route which has been operated by Canadian Pacific, Wardair and Air Transat.

New York used to be a weekly seasonal operation by a tour outfit call Jetsave, I don't know who flew it. (at the back of mind I have British Caledonian, but could be wrong.

Milan (Bergamo) and Oslo (Torp) were routes operated by Ryanair.

[CabinCrewe]

Dont recall Canadian Pacific operating out of NCL ? Interesting to see the GLA TS flights maintaining the same schedule 2015 as this year with 5 flights a week to YYZ with no reduction despite Air Canada at EDI. Just shows the demand is there from the North and East, yet NCL has none ?!

[Jamesair]

It was a year when there were two operators flying the Toronto route.

[SWBKCB]

Emirates boss urges North East firm to strike out into new export markets - The Journal (http://www.thejournal.co.uk/business/emirates-boss-urges-north-east-7689839)

Is it just me or is this a bit less positive than the normal Emirates comments?

[NCIS]

CP did indeed operate out of Newcastle. Pics: DC-10 http://flickr.com/photos/emdjt42/3597016785 and DC-8 http://flickr.com/photos/emdjt42/3602851932 Cheers.

[pallan]

It is indeed strangely worded...looking for a bit of free advertising maybe?

I think part of the reason is that the growth is not what EK was expecting... personally I think they have been expecting 20% growth year round which hasn't been achieved every month for whatever reason.

Decided to do a bit of digging through the thread at the numbers for this year so far:

Jan – 18351 (+18%)
Feb – 16980 (+21%)
Mar – 18517 (+5%)
Apr – 20211 (+22%)
May – 14382 (+13%)
Jun – 14693 (-7%)
Jul – 18726 (+9%)

It's a very mixed bag - maybe they are looking for some consistency year round and in particular the quiet months? And as the article says, from those calculations its an average 11.5% growth for the first half of 2014.

Looking at Wiki's stats, EK carried 199,025 in 2013, an average of 272 per flight so 63.6% LF... will be interesting to see the overall 2014 figures at the end of the year.

[ATNotts]

CabinCrewe

Dont recall Canadian Pacific operating out of NCL ? Interesting to see the GLA TS flights maintaining the same schedule 2015 as this year with 5 flights a week to YYZ with no reduction despite Air Canada at EDI. Just shows the demand is there from the North and East, yet NCL has none ?!

The regional Canada market is literally a "dying market" as the majority of the business consists of visiting friends and relatives (VFR) traffic.

VFR requires relatives at one end or the other, as as the first generation emigrants die, as the inevitably do, the connections with the "mother" country loosen. When the next generation (those born in Canada) have died, then the following generation often has little or no contact with the relatives on this side of the water.

Edinburgh is a different kettle of fish, as it is an inbound tourism destination in it's own right. Scotland generally had more emigrants to Canada proportionately to the rest of the UK.

I'm afraid the Canada market has had it's day, apart, inevitably, for London, Glasgow and possibly Manchester.

Similar will happen with the Polish market in 50 or so years - if we're still flying by then!!!

[skyman771]

New York used to be a weekly seasonal operation by a tour outfit call Jetsave,
I think the first season c. Mid 70's ? was a short fortnightly series operated by a TWA B707, used predominantly at that time on MAC work. I think it was reconfigured all "Y" & appeared on most if not all flights. It may have gone outbound via SNN or PWK on most occasions.
CP did indeed operate out of Newcastle.
Yes indeed they did for many years through to at least the late 80's. They also on occasions operated their 747's, as did Wardair.

[LiamNCL]

Heard that a BA 787 is in tomorrow morning anyone confirm or know why ?

[toon22]

While we're going down a transatlantic memory lane, don't forget Dan-Air's B707 NCL - YYZ (via PIK) operation in the early '70's which was operated for Jetsave.

[LBIA]

Heard that a BA 787 is in tomorrow morning anyone confirm or know why ?

Yeap its going to be based for a few days as British Airways are doing some Boeing 787 crew training/non revenue flight sorties. Also understand its due to visit Leeds/Bradford as well.

[pallan]

G-ZBJF just positioned up from LHR

[apaul]

EasyJet has released flights for April and May. Newcastle-Gatwick is shown as not bookable after 27 March.

[INeedTheFull90]

That didn't last long did it. A troubled route if ever there were one. Airline #4 can't make it work neither.

[EK77WNCL]

Really hope that's not true...

[Jamesair]

EK77WNCL

check your pm's re your research

[Rain dog]

EZY are not stopping the LGW route 27/3 and have no plans to scrap it as far as I'm aware - in fact they may have some nice surprises in store for NCL :suspect:

[fjencl]

We await with anticipation any news about EZY at NCL.... Quote "in fact they may have some nice surprises in store for NCL"

I do hope so.

Time will tell.

[INeedTheFull90]

I know a lot of easy crew at NCL. I've heard a fourth aircraft mentioned. I'd just like to beat anyone to the post on here by dispelling this as a complete fantasy. NCL with never have a fourth aircraft. Any new jets to the easy fleet go to bigger, newer or more profitable bases. NCL will be at most a three aircraft base.

[Jamesair]

Did the crew members you know also confirm the continued operation of the GTW service?

The lack of an additional aircraft wouldn't stop more inbound flights from other bases though.

[canberra97]

Jamesair

I think you must no it is LGW

[Balair]

canberra97,

Glass houses and stones...!

Balair

[HH6702]

4th based aircraft I would like it to happen.
Easyjet must be looking at the routes jet2 are doing holiday routes
(Turkey, greece) and must be wondering could they make a go of it in peak season (june-sept)??

They do have over 100+ aircraft on order but as many have said LGW, MAN will get the new planes before us. However the problems at gatwick will be slots and space.

I'm lead to believe that EZY have 65 planes at gatwick and a few of the planes now night stop elsewhere as they can't get the morning slots

Let's wait and see what happens

[HH6702]

Airport twitter feed confirms that gatwick will end in march with easyjet.

Maybe they will swap gatwick for luton?

[EK77WNCL]

They should bring back bloody Stansted, it's not like it didn't work!!! I honestly don't understand their justification pulling it at almost 250,000 pax a year.

Anyway, it's nice to see they really tried and gave Gatwick a good go... :rolleyes:

[crewmeal]

They should bring back bloody Stansted,

Is it really necessary to swear on a forum like this? It's not necessary and very childish throwing your toys out in this manner.

[SWBKCB]

^^ Well said - and I think only EZY know if STN worked or not. The clue is that they don't operate it any more and nobody else leapt into the gap.

[pallan]

It's pretty simple.
EZY operate out of Gatwick, which has limited slots. Yes, EZY are big there but if the NCL flight wasn't performing how they wanted then I'm sure there are plenty of other routes they could use the slots for which would be more profitable for them.
It's a little disappointing they didn't give it atleast another 6 months but that's the problem with a constrained airport such as LGW, airlines put their planes where they can get the best return because they HAVE to - it makes financial sense.

In regards to STN, well if they couldn't make LGW work then I don't see how STN or LTN could work. If they thought they could then they'd have introduced one of those instead of LGW

[GrahamK]

BA 787 GZBJH inbound for some crew training.

NCL isn't normally used for crew training I don't think. The only other ones that I can remember from the last few years was the VS A333?

[INeedTheFull90]

It just proved that North East to London links don't work as they're not needed. The only ones that will work are ones with sizeable onward connections and the only people who can do that are BA at LHR. It is impossible to compete with trains which run almost half hourly take three hours and give dozens of departure time choices. It's now proven that the only London airport and the North East can support is LHR. London will never be a link from MME or CAX and LHR will remain the only London route for the future and I have my doubts over the LBA service to LHR. But time will tell.

[apaul]

All it proves is that easyJet thinks it can use the Gatwick slots more profitably elsewhere.

[INeedTheFull90]

Ok maybe BA, flyBE or Jet2 will reinstate LGW. Stranger things have happened.

[EK77WNCL]

I'm sorry but up here you'd be hard pushed to find anyone who classed "bloody" as a swear word. If ever you need to walk through Newcastle, bring ear plugs.

I was simply making the point that quarter of a million people quite happily flew to Stansted from Newcastle on a yearly basis both when Go operated it and when Easyjet operated it. As has been mentioned, pulling LGW has little to do with Newcastle itself, except that there is SOMEWHERE else where they can earn a couple of extra quid per passenger. Any selection of the 4 airlines could have made LGW work, and each of them have various, non-NCL related reason why they pulled:

British Airways - Care too much about Heathrow, can't be bothered with domestic from Gatwick... They pulled Manchester!
Flybe - Forced to leave by increasing costs for small aircraft at LGW + flights were quite expensive at times, closing off to the lower end of the market.
Jet 2 - Did it with a leased RJ100... Wrong from the offset, 12-13 weekly 733, has a chance I think, if they had low enough fares and a correct schedule, often a sticking point with LS.
Easyjet - Schedule was quite good, don't understand the lack of flights on the weekend, EZY can be temperamental on occasion, they found somewhere with more money, pulled out.

The route could come back, maybe NAX could try, with a good schedule and their things like wifi, could attract businessmen IF they advertise, which is another reason quite a lot of routes don't exist.

[SWBKCB]

All 4 had one NCL related reason - they weren't making enough money.

Airlines don't have emotions, so they can't "care" or be "bothered" or "temperamental". :eek:

[Jamesair]

I'm still intrigued by the "Rain dog" post and where he got his info.

[fjencl]

Seeing as Aurigny and blue islands can fly into LGW and have been doing so for many years on less than 50 seat aircraft.

Maybe bmi regional could have a think about operating the NCL-LGW route.

Who knows !!!

Time will tell if another operator tries this route or not in the future.

[INeedTheFull90]

Yes. Aurigny do. What's the alternative? A long ferry/road and rail trip. The Channel Islands have lots of very wealthy people living/working/evading tax on them. It's a high yield route, and the there is little option but to fly. It's a whole different animal to the NCL-LGW route.

North Easterners can take a fast frequent train to London with many options of departure times and connections throughout the southeast just a couple of platforms aware in Kings X or next door in St Pancras. Apples with pears. The train also gives people the convenience of over a dozen departures points, more if you include the five daily sunderland to London service.

What can bmiR bring to the table? Very expensive ERJ flights. Again, they'd have to W though NCL, base a second jet at NCL, or change the BRU timings (which will mean one of the routes will not have business friendly timing).

These days nothing surprises me so a fifth operator wouldn't come as a shock. It won't last.

[Heathrow Harry]

it's not just the 3 hours to Kings X - you have to spend 30-45 hanging around either LHR or NCL - you can turn up 5 minutes before the train and go and the time can be spent working or relaxing - not being herded through security etc

[SWBKCB]

Working and relaxing? Not on the trains I have to go on... :(

[INeedTheFull90]

Don't see why not. You get on, take your reserved seat, enjoy a meal if you're in first, you have more space, no stowing devices for takeoff and landing, your always contactable (save for a few tunnels). Even the wifi helps keep my in touch with the office.

Plus I can finish early and hop on a train for the journey north within half an hour of turning up to the station and be home in my local station where my car has been parked cheaply all day and is just minutes from the train door and no waiting til 20:00 for the one afternoon flight home. I get a meal to wind down and after a days work and enjoy the scenery. Plus there's no extended walk or shuttle bus to the car. It's just there.

No baggage claim, surge of 150 others getting off at the same time, and no standing with locked automatic doors in NCL arrivals waiting five minutes for someone to come unlock them.

Come to think of it, why would anyone fly?

[pwalhx]

The reason LGW doesn't work from Northern airports is the lack on sufficient transfer traffic.

[SWBKCB]

Great if you're in first...

I tend to have to drive past the airport to get the city centre train station, struggle to find a parking place I'm going to pay through he nose for, then have to argue with whoever's sat in my reserved seat, no room to work (if I could ignore the inane chatter of the travelling masses), sit in middle of a field wondering why we aren't moving, then when I want to get off struggle over the suitcases in the passageway because surely they aren't expected to leave their cases in the luggage racks? And your stuck on it for so long, and it keeps stopping...

Granted the train wins on frequency, but otherwise I'll take the plane thanks

[INeedTheFull90]

I regularly sit in standard, and it's much of a muchness in terms of getting work done. Northbound I've NEVER had anyone sit in my seat, southbound I've had it once or twice and a polite works and they move no bother. Never had a problem parking, and on the few occasions I used Newcastle Central I'm sure it was a fair but cheaper than the airport. A majority of the Tyne and Wear population live south, so the city centre is either six and two or closer to the station.

The Alnwick and Morpeth folk can leave their cars close to home and hop on a train. Same for Durham, Chester and Darlington. Sunderland, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough folk can get a local link five times a day.

I'd say those who live closer to the airport than the city has to be the minority. Most of the conurbation extends southward.

Anyway, those willing to pay a premium to fly to London have BA and BA only from next spring. So everybody's happy. But LHR cannot be sustained on O&D traffic. It has to be majority transfer with a much smaller percentage of O&D on each flight.

[HH6702]

Evening all

I agree with what everyone is saying but let's all face it the route is gone!
The only route that we will keep (for now) is heathrow and that will work as you have the onward connections!!!

4 airlines have tried LGW and all 4 will have made money however as it has been said all 4 can make money on routes elsewhere.

I'm flying to hamburg and toulouse later in the year and you can fly each way with BA from heathrow for 32.00 each add the ncl sector on and they want 110 for the flight.. Domestic travel has been killed by price of tax.

Yes other airlines may try LGW, likes of BMI, EZE even DY however it will be the same story after a few months money can be made else where and lots off it.

Let's wait and see if easyjet do give us 4 based aircraft and what other new routes we will gain over the 12 months.

We have loads of new routes and flights starting soon so all is good at ncl. Let's grow slowly and keep the flights we have

[GrahamK]

EI Dublin only showing the morning flight for next summer, ORK not on sale yet

[HH6702]

I would be very surprised if EI are going to just a daily flight.
It would affect the connecting traffic loads.

Maybe they have just. Put the morning on sale to get some booking until full timetable is sorted.

If anything I would expect to see the EI flights going 3x daily??

Cork will go on sale later in the year

[skyman771]

I would be very surprised if EI are going to just a daily flight.
It would affect the connecting traffic loads.
Absolutely!, which just goes to show as to how weak / diluted the demand for NCL currently is. EI put a lot of resource into promoting the DUB-US through connection, though have to say it has never appealed to me & in reality the connections fitted very few flights.
In addition then DUB's advance immigration clearance "advantage" is becoming more diluted now that the US are bringing in automated clearance as an option for those who have visited previously on an ESTA.
On another tack I'm not at all surprised LGW is to be axed. Another low volume flight offering very limited choice & perhaps more fundamentally bl***y;) useless for connections as no through checking of bags, multiple separate tickets & security provides the nightmare option for a connection, which materialises every time one sector suffers delays, not to mention the extra cost !
Quite simply ( & unfortunately) if you are on business and want to get to into the centre of London / most suburbs, take the train ! it makes sense in total time, cost, choice & can actually be less stressful.
Unless the economic situation in the North East improves then I don't see any sustainable growth in current traffic levels or available destinations.

[jensdad]

When BA replace their Gatwick based 737s with A319s is it going to be a straight 1 for 1 swap or is gatwick seeing an increase in aircraft? If so, and assuming that the A319 is more fuel efficient than the 737 would there be a possibility of BA reopening the route? It would give connectivity to a load of BA destinations that are unlikely to be served by anyone from NCL.

I've used the gatwick flight on three different carriers umpteen times and the vast majority of times, load factors seem to have been excellent. OK, I agree that full seats don't automatically equal profitability, but I'm amazed that no one can seem to make this route work.

[adfly]

It is expected that the fleet will increase from ~22 now to ~25/26 once the fleet renewal is complete. As for domestic routes I'd expect to see MAN return long before NCL and even that seems unlikely I'm afraid. Flybe had the right aircraft for the route (and indeed the others they used to fly) but GIP decided those slots could be more profitably flown by something orange...

[Ph1l1pncl]

BA wouldn't reopen Gatwick to the regions, even a few years ago they possibility of BA pulling out of Gatwick completely was a very near possibility. They did a lot of cost cutting and moved to using Swissport instead of their own staff which they had always previously done.

I tweeted Easyjet about the Gatwick route asking if more dates were going to be released after March 27th and they said that they haven't fully released the summer schedule yet and that would be complete in October and to check once it's released, so it still may continue after March though I appreciate that the team who work for the twitter department would not know the full picture.

It's definitely tax which is killing domestic travel in the UK, my last ticket back in staff travel from Heathrow costs about £20 for the return ticket and £50 in tax.

[jensdad]

It's definitely tax which is killing domestic travel in the UK, my last ticket back in staff travel from Heathrow costs about £20 for the return ticket and £50 in tax.

This issue will have been done to death on PPRUNE I am sure, but I can't help feeling that the impact of APD is sometimes overstated, a large part of these charges that are commonly referred to as 'taxes' actually being levied by the airline. Why these are quoted separately from the 'fare' I'll never know.

Tax plays a part, sure, but I've just had a look at BA's own breakdown of the £108.86 fare for an NCL-LHR return in December. Of the £85.86 in 'taxes, fees and carrier charges' only £26 is APD. £19 is a 'carrier imposed charge' and £40.86 is a 'passenger service charge' which the BA website doesn't explain very well but the CAA website explains is a 'Charge imposed by airlines to cover costs they pay to airports for the passenger to use the airport’s facilities ' (my italics) .

When I buy a bag of carrots from Asda the cost isn't broken down into, among other things, separate charges for using the car park.

Sorry for thread drift!

[Jamesair]

Interesting that EZY didn't completely close the door on your enquiry.

[SWBKCB]

Depends how EZY's Twitter/Social media set up works - might just be replying using a standard script about any service which hasn't yet appeared.

[INeedTheFull90]

Wasn't it tweeted by the airport that LGW is going?

[HH6702]

Yes it was the airport so they must have been given notice of the gatwick flights.


I understand that Thomson, Thomas Cook are to launch 2nd edition summer sun brochures this week I wonder if we will see anything more new or changes for next summer.

We have varna from TCX wonder if Thomson will give us anything else

How does the easyjet timetable look without gatwick for next summer is there many gaps of the 3 based planes

[Jamesair]

EZY is really only up to June so there might be some changes still.

[EK77WNCL]

So coming up we have:

TCX - Santorini and Varna (both May?), Hurghada (Winter)
TOM - Dubrovnik (Summer), Montgo Bay (Winter) unfortunately Agadir pulled, anyone know why? Thought it might have had a chance.

Obviously all trying to get as much out of their aircraft as possible

[LiamNCL]

Hurghada is summer too

[Charlie98]

Don't forget the new Jet2 routes!

[Jamesair]

and the return of a daily Exeter with Flybe

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah I was gonna mention them but I wasn't sure if we were just focusing on TOM/TCX or not :P

Reckon the airport have anything up their sleeve for the 80th?

[ncleflights]

I cant say that I am surprised that Gatwick is going, Ive used it a few times and its always been busy but no doubt the slots can be used for more profitable routes. I did give it a bit longer though but always knew it would go.

Im quite surprised Easyjet still have a base at Newcastle they dont appear overly keen on seeing the base grow and develop. As for a 4th based aircraft I cant see it happening in fact I would not be surprised, although I would hope not, if the base were to close in the next couple of years.

[EK77WNCL]

So I think it's pretty much confirmed we are also losing Venice and Pula for next year? Shame, after seeing a recent Facebook post by NCL asking which city people wanted to visit, within 10 minutes about 6 people had all said "Venice," and I immediately pulled the "use it or lose it" card, in my head, until I remembered we've put off going to Venice for a while and now it's too late. Damn.

Someone get Volotea on the phone! ;)

[ncleflights]

Dont forget folks the biggest threat to Newcastle Airports future comes on Thursday if the Scots vote yes to Independence. With the SNP stating an Independent Scotland would ditch APD and given Newcastle Airports catchment I would expect a large migration of passengers to Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports from our region so that they can save a few quid.

[JosuaNkomo]

Think not. Train and metro to EDI will cost more than duty.

[EK77WNCL]

Hmmmm, debatable to be honest, maybe not on long haul.

You've got to hope the average geordie will realise about the train/bus/drive. Hmmmmmm, they better not go..............

[TSR2]

Two adults and two children by car. May be very cost effective long haul.

[10 DME ARC]

Yep long haul APD for a family mounts up!! Still with so much concessions to make a NO vote that could end up hurting as well!:\

[JosuaNkomo]

Agree long haul might be cheaper but for the two biggest European point to point operators ( easyjet and jet2 ) a yes vote will have a limited effect.

[Hipennine]

Forget APD, a rapidly devaluing Scottish currency might have a greater impact on flight costs (before rampant inflation catches up). However, the hassle of a border crossing at Carter Bar in the wind and rain might put people off !

And don't forget that the Edinburgh southern bypass is just as bad as the Ncl western bypass, so EDI is pragmatically less accesible than just looking at a map may suggest.

[fa2fi]

Who's to say the airlines will reduce the prices when there is no APD north of the border? They could just keep the prices the same and increase their yields. I would if I was running an airline. If people have been prepared to pay the current prices then why on earth charge less than you need?

[VentureGo]

Scottish referendum: ?Yes? vote would end APD in Scotland (http://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/1523108-scottish-referendum-%E2%80%98yes%E2%80%99-vote-would-end-apd-scotland)

Interesting comments from contributor at end of article:

"Newcastle view on APD

Newcastle Airport has benefited for as long as I can remember from passengers travelling down from Scotland to take advantage of lower flight costs ex Newcastle. Didn't hear NCL complain then"

Well !
I know of at least 4 families who have travelled up to Edinburgh this summer to avoid higher fares from Newcastle. One family of four saved over £350 on flights to Turkey (Bodrum) - Fares ex Edinburgh can be cheaper without change in APD

[SWBKCB]

Agreed - I also know people who have travelled north to EDI. Works both ways depending on when the relevant school holidays fall and the resulting impact on prices.

[10 DME ARC]

The price difference now is nothing to do with APD but school holidays! And yes it works both ways at the moment!
No APD would permanently make it a one way street!

[Ph1l1pncl]

I haven't seen this been mentioned, but when I flew down to Heathrow the other day I noticed that BA have removed the self service checkin desks. Does anyone know why? Or when they were removed, on the Glasgow and Aberdeen threads people have mentioned the same. We maybe getting new machines so they've removed the old ones but it just seems a little strange.

[Heathrow Harry]

very few people will drive all the way to EDI or GLA just because of APD - you are adding 2.5 hours to your trip either way

[N707ZS]

You would be surprised Harry DTVA used to get Scottish people driving South to save a few penny's.

[fa2fi]

When I was crew there the flights would have significant amounts of those from north of the border onboard. The school summer holiday period lasts longer at NCL probably more than any other English airport due to those crossing the border seeking cheaper flights due to the school holiday periods being different. Similar to half term too. People can save hundreds by driving a couple of hours. I doubt APD will have an impact. First you need airlines to pass the saving on to the consumer and second it is not that much of saving by the time you've factored in fuel, motoring costs and hassle factor.

[10 DME ARC]

You would be amazed! Years ago I had a neighbour in the NE who would drive his family to Glasgow and Liverpool all just to save £100!!

[fa2fi]

I should imagine people like that are in the minority, especially given the price of petrol these days.

[EK77WNCL]

Reet the stats are oot!!! (or some are anyway)

Domestic Increases:
Gatwick - 8436 +21%
Luton - 77 N/A
Aberdeen - 2333 +9 (39 charter)
Birmingham - 460 +37% (69 charter)
Bristol - 14963 +10%
Manchester - 74 +3%

Domestic Decreases:
Heathrow - 40617 -5%
Stansted - 0 -100% (2013 - 67)
Belfast City - 3076 -31%
Durham Tees Valley - 0 -100% (2013 - 48)
Exeter - 0 -100% (2013 - 3016)
Farnborough - 0 -100% (2013 - 85)
Isle of Man - 480 -3%
Jersey - 2526 -13%
Manston - 0 -100% (2013 - 3)

Belfast International, Cardiff, Newquay and Southampton are missing their pax numbers, this leads e to believe that those above stated as "0" may also have some statistics missing

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data_prov/201408/August_2014_Provisional_Domestic_Routes.pdf

International coming up

[EK77WNCL]

International Increases:


International Decreases:
Salzburg - 0 -100% (2013 - 1459) - Correct? I wasn't aware TOM ended it???
Dubrovnik - 0 -100% (2013 - 2246) - O.o
Pula - 0 -100% (2013 - 1072) - hmmmmm......
Brussels not listed, something afoot....
Cyprus, Larnaca/Paphos - NO STATS
Denmark, Billund, Copenhagen, Esbjerg, Karup - NO STATS
France, Limoges, Nice, Paris, Lourdes - NO STATS
Germany, Dusseldorf, Hamburg - NO STATS
Greece, Corfu, Heraklion, Kefalonia, Kos, Rhodes, Skiathos, Zakynthos -GUESS
Ireland, Cork, Dublin - NO STATS
Italy, Naples, Pisa, Rome, Venice, Verona - NUFFIN
Malta - INCOMPLETE
Netherlands, Amsterdam, Rotterdam - NO STATS
Portugal, Faro, Porto, Funchal - NO STATS
All Spain including Canaries - NOTHING
Norway, Stavanger - NO STATS
Turkey, Antalya, Bodrum, Dalaman, Izmir - NO STATS
Bulgaria, Burgas, Varna - BUGGER ALL
Czech Republic, Prague - NO STATS
Poland, Krakow - NO
Egypt, Sharm - SURPRISINGLY NOT
Tunisia, Enfidha - :(
UAE, Dubai - NEG
USA, Sanford - NO STATS
Mexico, Cancun - NO STATS

Well... That's annoying... I think I'll come back to this one later

[SWBKCB]

Lufthansa to transform Eurowings into all-Airbus carrier - 9/17/2014 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lufthansa-to-transform-eurowings-into-all-airbus-carrier-403798/)

Eurowings will use the A320s to replace its Bombardier CRJ900s.

Hmm, really? Quite an increase in capacity - wonder what the impact on NCL-DUS will be??

[Jamesair]

The CAA stats will be updated next week, so the missing numbers including the actual Airport figures will all appear. The airport gives August totals as (with Aug 13 in brackets) Dom. 99,775 (102,793), IT 162,855 (165,908) Int Sched. 275,518 (262,869)

[EK77WNCL]

Howay then I'll try again... Stats should now read as follows

Destination - 2014 pax (2013 pax) percentage increase (notes)

Domestic Increases:
Gatwick - 8436 (6982) +21%
Luton - 77 (0) N/A
Aberdeen - 2333 (2136) +9 (2014 - 39 charter)
Birmingham - 460 (336) +37% (2014 - 69 charter)
Bristol - 14963 (13603) +10%
Manchester - 74 (72) +3%
Belfast International - 16193 (15929) +2%
Newquay - 759 (753) +1%
Southampton - 8490 (7901) +7%

Domestic Decreases:
Heathrow - 40617 (42698) -5%
Stansted - 0 (67) -100%
Belfast City - 3076 (4446) -31%
Durham Tees Valley - 0 (48) -100%
Exeter - 0 (3016) -100%
Farnborough - 0 (85) -100%
Isle of Man - 480 (496) -3%
Jersey - 2526 (2908) -13%
Manston - 0 (3) -100% (2013 - 3)
Cardiff - 734 (872) -16%

Not looking too bad on the domestic side of things, Heathrow always seems to decrease more than in increases but still very healthy numbers. Birmingham boosted by charters but still a shadow of it's former self unfortunately, same applies for Isle of man and I think probably a few others. BHD must be in trouble and unfortunately I can't see it lasting if it keeps the consistent double digit drops. Pleased to see Bristol doing well (for now, until the stupid winter schedule) and Southampton looking healthy. I would be pleased with Gatwick but... It's somewhat irrelevant.

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...tic_Routes.pdf

International Increases:
Amsterdam - 34968 (32146) +9%
Brussels - 1730 (0) N/A
Copenhagen - 1562 (1561) 0%
Dubai - 20831 (18544) +12% (best month so far, very good news!)
Dublin - 15871 (11887) +34%
Dusseldorf - 3387 (2858) +19
Paris - 14361 (12639) +14%

Arrecife - 8987 (8096) +11%
Barcelona - 6808 (6721) +1%
Cancun - 2316 (2043) +13%
Dubrovnik - 2578 (2246) +15%
Fuerteventura - 4437 (4293) +3% (TCX down about 800, LS carried 1022)
Funchal - 2848 (1446) +97% (TOM up and LS carrying similar numbers)
Kavala - 815 (0) N/A (Not sold from NCL, I think inbound JSI pax are down as Kavala, also explaining JSI drop)
Kefalonia - 3080 (1403) +120%
Kos - 3328 (1669) +99%
Larnaca - 5634 (4683) +20%
Malaga - 21916 (21775) +1% (Torremolinos, Marbella and Puerto Banus making a comeback???)
Naples - 1845 (1838) 0%
Palma - 47657 (45540) +5%
Prague - 2586 (2529) +2%
Pula - 1081 (1072) +1%
Reus - 8705 (7277) +20%
Rhodes - 6657 (5030) +32% (TOM/TCX up 1800 pax, LS down 250)
Rome - 2582 (2544) +1%
Sanford - 2285 (2041) +12%
Venice - 2460 (2420) +2%
Zakynthos - 6117 (5091) +20%

Bearritz - 76 (0) NA
Deauville - 22 (0) NA
Munster - 46 (0) NA
Goose Bay - 123 (0) NA (Miltary charters?)
Lourdes Tarbes - 255 (232) +10 (Pilgrims)

International Decreases:
Alicante - 28950 (32474) -11% (bigger drop by charter, almost 3000 pax)
Antalya - 4854 (5547) -12%
Bodrum - 4988 (5401) -8% (TOM/TCX down, LS up)
Bourgas - 6406 (6463) -1%
Corfu - 8878 (9157) -3% (LS up, TOM/TCX down)
Cork - 1818 (2112) -14%
Dalaman - 25167 (25904) -3% (both down)
Enfidha - 6828 (6915) -1%
Faro - 17897 (17940) 0% (TOM down 300 exactly, LS/EZY up 250 ish)
Girona - 4473 (5834) -23%
Hamburg - 0 (124) -100%
Heraklion - 4872 (6747) - 28%
Ibiza - 15924 (17080) -7% (again charter accounts for most of the drop)
Izmir - 0 (219) -100% (what flight was this? 1 charter? Series of business flights? Don't remember it...)
Krakow - 2594 (3590) -28%
Las Palmas - 5491 (5517) 0%
Limoges - 0 (647) -100%
Mahon - 9603 (10363) -7%
Malta - 3908 (3958) -1% (Both drop, Air Malta negligible drop of 11 pax)
Murcia - 6146 (7987) -23% (shame to see such a big drop)
Nice - 3869 (3952) -2%
Paphos - 6934 (8031) -14% (scheduled (LS) up 150, charter (TOM/TCX) down over 1200 pax)
Pisa - 2332 (2374) -2%
Salzburg - 1415 (1459) -3%
Sharm El Sheikh - 4856 (5040) -4 (gradually making a return?)
Skiathos - 1259 (2283) -45% (hopefully explained by Kavala)
Stavanger - 1851 (2009) -8%
Tenerife - 11897 (12139) -2% (LS up, TOM/TCX down)
Varna - 0 (886) -100% (have to see how TCX do next year)
Verona - 3199 (3222) -1%

A few comments on international, good to see all the Euro hubs doing well and the EK numbers are looking impressive. It's a shame to see quite a lot of drops in charter in some areas, but then again they have some pretty impressive increases in other areas. IMO the ones I'm most pleased about and think are the most exceptional are Kefalonia, Kos, Zante, Rhodes, Reus, Dubrovnik, Sanford and Cancun. Very pleased to see Jet2 and Thomson cohabiting very nicely on the Funcal route, although I am extremely disappointed about Jet2's move to Monday mornings for next year. That will definitely cause problems I think. They are much better off on Fridays... More friendly competition. I think the 1-2% drops are probable just anomalies, i.e the way dates fell meaning there are 1/2 less flights in that month, some like Air Malta are stable, 11 pax isn't much to cry over I don't think. Some of the really disappointing ones are Alicante, Antalya, Gerona, Haraklion, Krakow, Murcia and Paphos. Spain seems to have had quite a lot of overall drops this year, people changing to long haul or places like Greece which have seen stunning rises? But one notable mention is Cork... Why can't it seem to sustain last year's Jet2 pax numbers? I would have thought that the 2 extra frequencies would have improved things. The same amount of seats are still on sale for the route. Overall though, things look good and I hope some of 2015's new routes make an improvement again.

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data_prov/201408/August_2014_Provisional_International_Routes.pdf

Finally here are the Airport's stats:

4347 flight movements this month, -0.2%
42909 flight movements rolling year, -0.6%
534026 passengers this month +1.2%
4480171 passengers rolling year +2%

Looking good. 4.5 million this year? I've probably jinxed it now though, we'll get 4.495 or something.

[EI-BUD]

Interesting commentary and numbers EK77wncl

BHD NCL in decline and I note your suggestion about whether it lasts. However it surprises me that BE enjoy some success on other competing routes at similar frequency to ezy ex Belfast (ie BHD over BFS ), such as EDI, GLA. But what is different about BHD NCL?

Is it that ezy put 320's on ncl flights to fill gaps between international ncl flights and offer lower fares to fill the seats?

It would seem that on any competing route ex Belfast BE V EZY where BE has huge frequency over ezy , they are growing the route eg BHX MAN, but it could be argued that the reason is that these are so well established. Equally connecting traffic on these May be driving performance.

[Fairdealfrank]

BA Self Checkin
I haven't seen this been mentioned, but when I flew down to Heathrow the other day I noticed that BA have removed the self service checkin desks. Does anyone know why? Or when they were removed, on the Glasgow and Aberdeen threads people have mentioned the same. We maybe getting new machines so they've removed the old ones but it just seems a little strange.


Not just NCL, appears to be everywhere on the BA network except LHR-5.

Not enough people travelling hand baggage only?

Someone must know the reason, plse tell us why.

[CabinCrewe]

it was SSCI maintenance cost and usage/analysis of transfer of potential workload/labour to main check-in decision, all UK regional points will lose them at some point when contracts etc expire. There is no other weird or wonderful underlying theory Im afraid. The use of shared 3rd party machines was dismissed.

[Rain dog]

The system requires new hardware which cannot be applied to the current machines, requiring a completely new set-up - it's just not cost effective for the airports, nor is the maintenance of the current machines.

Strange that EZY would drop LGW now, don't you think? :suspect:

[VentureGo]

Newcastle Airport to campaign against Scotland being given power over Air Passenger Duty - The Journal (http://www.thejournal.co.uk/north-east-analysis/analysis-news/newcastle-airport-campaign-against-scotland-7800058)

I would have thought Mason should be campaigning against APD from all UK airports, or at least a reduced rate for regions outside London & South East

[simonwa]

I wonder if the Dreamliner had an effect on the long-haul passenger numbers for August.

Cancun - total of 2328 seats available for the month - figures show 2316 = average 99.4% loads.
Sanford - same number of seats available = figures show 2285 = 98.1% average loads.
Dubai - total of 26536 seats available for the month - figures show 20831 = 78.5% average loads.

Strong figures here for the month of August, particularly Cancun and Sanford. Will we see more long-haul from Newcastle when they introduce 2 more new dreamliners to the fleet early in 2015?

[EK77WNCL]

Simonwa I had throught exactly the same thing, they are tremendous figures. I hadn't realised taht the load factors were so high though, I mustn't have put 2+2 together and realised that they're just 1 weekly flights. Emirates' loads may have had something to do with the commonwealth games because GLA was reportedly fully booked for the month... Then again they had a 1% drop for August 2014 so I dunno....

[EK77WNCL]

Simonwa I had throught exactly the same thing, they are tremendous figures. I hadn't realised taht the load factors were so high though, I mustn't have put 2+2 together and realised that they're just 1 weekly flights. Emirates' loads may have had something to do with the commonwealth games because GLA was reportedly fully booked for the month... Then again they had a 1% drop for August 2014 so I dunno....

EI-BUD, I think the reason behind the BHD drops is that the schedule is terrible, there is now only 1 mid day flight from NCL-BHD and back each day, whereas EZY has morning and evening flights, lets just hope they don't go and bugger than one up like they have done Bristol for at least this winter season. Apologies to those with an EZY soft spot but it would almost seem that they are looking for excuses as to why their routes cannot work, particularly from NCL. I know they can make MORE money from wherever else, but 200,000+ passengers per year is not a small drop in the water for Newcastle.

[INeedTheFull90]

EZY are down to one a day on BFS certain days so they're trying to kill that route off too. Sad times.

[Heathrow Harry]

those Dubai numbers are pretty amazing - what is the capacity on the route?

Must be around 25,000 with a single rotation???

[Ringwayman]

31 day month with the 2 class 77W and it's a smidgen under 26,500 seats. On an annual basis it's 311,000 seats.

[EK77WNCL]

Crying shame, I wonder if EI might do BHD, things could work out for the best if they pushed BD and EZY (not that they'd need much pushing) off the route. Either that or they work side by side with BD, not completely irrational to think something like that could happen. What future does BRS have? FR? Doubt it.

Despite these 4th aircraft rumours I don't think EZY care about us anymore, too much money to be made congesting the south.

EDIT: To be fair I just checked and most days are 3 daily, only Saturday is 1 daily so it's quite good really, but I despair regarding BRS and LGW.

[fjencl]

bmi regional are going 3 times a day to Brussels from 30th March :D:D:D

[EK77WNCL]

Yaaaayyyyy!!!!! Will the fares come down so I can use it without having to ask my parents to re mortgage the house ;)

But seriously, do they still have the Brussels Airlines agreement? And if they can make it work pretty much off their own back without much brand awareness, maybe LH might start the long fabled FRA route. If they can make DUS work once daily with bad timings and no connections... How hard can it be?!?!

[OltonPete]

Here is my offering.

Data from the CAA, libhomeradar, The EK source and planespotters.net

The August load factor was actually higher according to my calculations = 85%

You can read this in one of two ways: -

1) Very good as 85% is higher than 78% or
2) Bad, as the flight was downgraded 14 times in terms of seats in a traditionally strong month (probably an upgrade for actually passengers travelling on the 3-class)

My calculations are:

34 rotations on the two class 428 seat version = 14552
16 rotations on the three class 360 seat version =5760
10 rotations on the three class 354 seat version = 3540
2 rotations on the two class 346 version (B772ER) = 692

Total = 24544 which when divided by 20831 is 85%.

How does this compare to others, Glasgow was actually down but still averaged 90% but all 354/360 seat versions.

Manchester, BHX and Manchester (93% & 94% respectively) either saw monthly records or were close. BHX saw all 428 seat aircraft, Gatwick saw 15 x 428 seat versions in a an enormous figure of over 76K and Manchester saw a few 428 seat versions.

Comparing Newcastle to the other UK routes of course is unfair as they are more mature routes and probably totally pointless without the yield data but still some food for thought.

EK77WNCL

I am not sure why the surprise at the IT long-haul load factors - what were you expecting? I would expect at least 95-98% all year round and even then I wouldn't get that excited without knowing at what price those seats were filled at.

Dusseldorf/Frankfurt

It won't take long to get a good idea of how strong Dusseldorf really is once Germanwings have been operating it for a while. The change from Lufthansa to Germanwings on BHX - Berlin destroyed the route and it was gone within six months. Hamburg has fared a little better and BHX is lucky as it has flybe on Dusseldorf.

As for Frankfurt it will need to be at least twice a day code-share to fit into the LH hub and for O & D business and have BMIR got the aircraft spare and willing to risk it?



Pete

[SWBKCB]

EK - interesting analysis on passenger numbers, but only looks at the top half of the aircraft. My understanding is all the 300's have the same size cargo holds...

BD/SN - yes, agreement sill in place.

[pallan]

Whilst it may have been operated as 3 class some days, the EK flight is sold as 2 class therefore the load factor based on the amount of seats available on sale would be, as simonwa explained, 78.5%.

This is still a pretty good figure but lets not try and fix the figures to make it look amazing as the flight is nonetheless sold as a 428 seat, 2 class 77W on a daily basis.

[highwideandugly]

The one flight has more passengers than this airport(dtv) has every day!!!

Stop whingeing!:D

[EK77WNCL]

OultonPete, regarding the TOM flights from NCL, I'd be willing to bet all the seats went for quite a hefty price. I know 4/5 families who have been to either Florida or Mexico (Sanford or Cancun) in the last 3 years, all of which have flown from GLA or MAN because they were cheaper, and one school friend who goes to Florida every June, has done for the last 10 years, they've never flown from Newcastle, always Glasgow, this year was the first they went from MAN, and always due to the price of the Newcastle flights. They've gone on TOM/TCX and VS over the years and have always been cheaper than the offering from Newcastle.

Good I suppose... That they are still filling it.

[CabinCrewe]

you would hope they would be full and carrying a cost premium, the othe airports all have far more flights to Orlando than NCL, if there was crazy demand then there would be more flights, and the likes of VS would be at NCL and not at BFS.
Great to have demand for whats available however.

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah that's the problem with a small (and relatively poor) market such as NCL. 2 fights a week would bring prices down and loads up but yield would also come down. There might be just enough to support 2 per week but not with the margins they'll be getting now. Although the 787 could help... I'm happy with what we have and Jamaica coming up,

[simonwa]

I went to Mexico on the second Dreamliner flight direct to Cancun from Newcastle this year and paid more or less the same as from Gatwick or Manchester. Looked at all options and NCL worked out the same! It would have been a lot more to go from Manchester/Gatwick if you added in overnight hotel, car parking and petrol.
The flights were almost full both ways. Only one or two seats empty. The demand is there for flights, so I hope they add more long haul.

Out of interest, anyone know why the recently announced flights to Jamaica are NOT on the Dreamliner? Seems strange to say that all long haul flying will be on the Dreamliner, yet these flights are definitely not.

[HH6702]

Hi guys

Excellent news with EK hitting the 20K mark per month.
Does it really matter if the aircraft was down graded some days?

Maybe on the quieter days for EK route wide they have to down grade some of there routes and put the aircraft where it is needed.
As long as we see the route grow and we keep the daily flight a 777 does it really matter?

I noticed that the lunchtime glasgow flight today wass a 777-200 so does that mean more people flew from ncl today rather than glasgow??

[Heathrow Harry]

I wouldn't get to worried about Emirates swapping planes occasionally - those numbers for their non-London UK flights are amazing - we know they have a lower cost base than say BA and they don't charge THAT much less - and +75% normally means you are making a lot of money

I suspect they may swap if they can use a larger aircraft elsewhere on the day - that's the sort of flexibility you should have - not a slavish mindset that sends out the same plane everyday regardless

My question is what do they do going forward? Add more flights - maybe 10 a week rather than 7??? You'd have to be pretty brave to stick a 380 on the route but I've seen them in Aukland and they can't have many more pax than NCL, GLA or MAN

[HH6702]

I would say it would be a good way forward for EK to increase NCL to 10 weekly flights on there busy days adding an evening flight.

I just hope they don't add a daily flight into EDB?
I'm guessing they will add a A380 service from glasgow first to offer a different product from the rest of the north of england/scotland compared to the 777/787 that's on offer and soon to be joined by Eithads A330!

Time will tell but we all know these figures are good news.

Its a shame we can't find an airline that can offer the same the other way

[EK77WNCL]

How do you mean the other way? As in NYC? If so then I definitely agree, I really cannot see why it couldn't work (except from US airlines having high cost bases and not really offering the service you pay for as a result, or so many say).

I haven't seen it in person but how AKL handles the 3 A380's at once is really impressive, all arriving and departing at the same time. AKL doesn't have that many passengers, hence they all go via SYD, BNE and MEL. I'm not even sure there would be a market for DXB-AKL-DXB, especially not with the flights they have currently.

Anyway... In terms of NCL, I think within the next 2/3 years EK will do something at NCL and I would say that will probably come as either x10/x11 weekly, possibly on A340 500 or 777 200/200ER equipment... Maybe (but please God I hope not) on the A330's. Suppose a slack 77L could work too.

Regarding EDI, I would hope the following will be their logic:
2015/2016 - Get GLA up to A380
2015/2016 - Increase NCL to 10/11 weekly and introduce first class
2017/2018 - NCL 2 daily, GLA 3 daily, then start EDI after securing their existing markets

I'd say 4th daily MAN, daily STN, a South West service, another daily rotation to an existing London airport or two and maybe 3 daily BHX will all come before or around the time of EDI. Then they may start exploring options for new UK markets but I don't know where could be left without starting to cannibalise...

But I've gone a bit off topic... The longer places like Canada, Germany, China, France and India (although they are pretty lenient really) keep restricting flights and blocking markets under the façade they are supporting their local airlines, the more other markets such as the UK and USA will thrive on more opportunities given to them.