BELFAST AIRPORT INTERNATIONAL

[mart901]

The slice of the market EI wanted was BA type customers, prepared to pay higher than say EZY's. It was about consolidation. To be fair, BFS could and possibly have offered such a deal previously, i don't think IAG being owner of both will change much but yes potentially more bargaining power. I can't see any other tangible benefits to such a move really, it would potentially hand business customers over to BE who are already doing nicely.

[josechung]

I agree, they won't move bar BHD really cocking up in the next round of negotiations. Plus it benefited EZY when EI moved and BFS will want to keep a loyal partner happy.

From the talk going on in some places, LHR is becoming too consolidated (BA has too many slots) and we will see big airlines using regional airports more. If this is true, it can only benefit us.

[OneBellEnd]

EI moving to BHD was nothing to do with these high yield fares - either real or imaginary. They always had a strong relationship with BA, although granted not as openly strong as it is now! EI thought BA would exit Belfast on acquisition of BM and partner with EI allowing them (EI) to monopolise Belfast and Dublin routes to Heathrow. But instead BA invested and stuck at BHD, and re-entered the DUB market!!

Maybe giving WW too much credit here but did he have the takeover of EI in mind in 2012? He may indeed have shared the same burning urge to control EI - like Michael O'L - since he was ousted from it over ten years ago??! Who knows...all irrelevant now.

As for IAG (BA) contemplating a return to BFS, one consideration is in play. (If ever) IAG partners such as AA, QR etc were to seriously look at a developing market in Belfast, BFS at some time downstream would be the only show available to IAG. So, if we give WW credit for having a long eye, don't rule out any strategic thought getting airtime...

[j636]

BA won't move out of BHD to BFS, if they do KLM/AF will jump in and cause trouble for them. KLM doing 80%+ loads would think extra freq will be on the cards at some point in future.

[EI-BUD]

OneBellEnd,


Aer Lingus stated categorically that moving to Belfast City was in line with a strategic move to focus on the business traveller and they saw that BHD fitted better to that. They also felt that they could compete strongly with BA based on their track record and reputation to date in the market. They also had a clear view that Winter routes ex BFS outside of Canaries were marginal, and as a result, elbowing in on BHD LGW they saw as a market they could win. Clearly that went in their favour.


The loads were far from exceptional on BFS LHR and I often got a late enough booking at a good fare, that doesn't tell the tale obviously, few will know the return.


My point in all of this is that BA doesn't need to worry too much about which Belfast Airport is flies too now, nor do any of IAG airlines, nobody now in a position to challenge BA on LHR Belfast. Or any UK domestic ex LHR for that matter.


J636's point about KLM is a valid one, but at most it will only ever be a 2 daily operation and the absence of a 6am take off makes BHD less attractive for KLM for linking up with many intercontinental flights ex AMS.

[OneBellEnd]

"EI-BUD" I will defer to your knowledge on Aer Lingus objectives in switching Belfast airports. Perhaps your handle suggests you are closer to that thought process?

However, now that BA hold ALL the Heathrow cards, without any semblance of choice (bmi, Little Red, EI), you are right, they can do what they want without sanction! And, Northern Ireland is a small place. This legend of high yield fares at the city airport is now a secondary consideration to how IAG will develop their general presence in Dublin, and locally in NI where they can get max flexibility to optimise Heathrow slot use and perhaps develop other IAG partner services. After all it's not that long ago that the Belfast - Heathrow route was twice its current size and all services for business and leisure operated on two different airlines - all from BFS.

Your final point about KLM - equally AF, Lufthansa, whoever..it is more important for these airlines to have a 6am wave feeding from a more distant market like Belfast than it is for BA to have a similarly early start into Heathrow. Fact.

Interesting times.

[stab3.5up]

I understand KLM wanted a 0615 departure time from Sep but told to go swing so to speak.

[VickersVicount]

twice the market? in capacity at a push but was it was a doubling in numbers carried in those days?

[EI-BUD]

In fairness, KLM could upgrade to 737-700 in the first instance to grow their business before going to x2 daily. I imagine that most of their business is interlining passengers . . . .

[West Brit]

So KLM are not putting an early morning flight on because of the curfew? Where they unaware of this when they were talking to BHD? Do they not realise that there is another airport up the road? And they say 2 airports is great for competition.


BA LHR would have many advantages operating out of BFS. Slots could be used more efficiently. Larger aircraft 767 etc could be used as is the case at GLA, EDI etc. Increase aircraft size reduced rotations etc.
I have to laugh at the thought that BA wouldn't utilise their slots/aircraft on Belfast/LHR because of the fear that KLM will come in and take over at BHD.
Do business men only use BHD? therefore if BA vacated BHD, business in NI would grind to a halt because KLM can't get an early morning slot.

[EI-BUD]

WestBrit,


This is exactly the point. Without a competitor for LHR route, BA could easily move to BFS and have much greater flexibility than BHD can ever offer, and at a much lower cost, as you point out, later flights, larger aircraft and higher utilisation, more flexibility etc.


However, their strategy of being at BHD has been sound to date, and lets not forget bmi moved their operation originally to BHD as a point of difference to the high level of competition on point to point ex BFS by low costs airlines at that time....


We ought not open up a debate about BFS V BHD as it is at best a futile exercise....

[True Blue]

"I understand KLM wanted a 0615 departure time from Sep but told to go swing so to speak"


So if this was important to them, why pick Bhd? Really amuses me airlines who decide to use Bhd, knowing the rules from the start, then wanting something else. Shows why we need some rules, else these big businesses would just walk all over us. They could have picked 24 hr Bfs and I don't think they would be getting a different passenger from what they are getting now. After all, if you wanted to use KLM, would you decide not to use them because they use Bfs not Bhd and decide to drive to Dublin instead.


TB

[EI-BUD]

True Blue,


I guess KLM didn't expect BHD AMS to be just as successful as it is, otherwise if their expectations were so high they'd have started it ages ago. I think their choice to use BHD is sound, why? Because they have a point of difference over easyJet in terms of the point to point traveller. Equally, they had the risk that if the route was more point to point, they know what a challenge easyJet can be. LPL AMS is a case in point, a rare occasion where KLM canned a route ....


If the route is a high proportion of connecting passengers, then KLM can feel safe in choosing whichever airport they want, it wont make 1 bit of difference. Moreover, there is no doubt that they got a very highly discounted fees structure from BHD for the 1st and 2nd years etc....


EI-BUD

[mart901]

Maybe Mr Nesbitt can challenge things like passenger caps, operating hours, runway lengths, APD in opposition?

[SecondDog]

Maybe Mr Nesbitt can challenge things like passenger caps, operating hours, runway lengths, APD in opposition?

Naw. That would involve a Northern Ireland politician who could think of anything other than Flegs, parades and The Past.

[mart901]

There was a healthy dose of sarcasm in my post I can assure you!

[BFS BHD]

Why is 'Jet2' and 'Visit Belfast' in Rome promoting Belfast when they haven't got Rome on sale for Summer 2016? Or is Rome and Prague going on sale for Summer 2016 soon? :confused::confused:

Is it to late for a 4th Aircraft to be added?

[GAZMO]

Very interesting, maybe Rome not departing from the departure board just yet
Rumours LS were interested in LBA and EMA?

[mart901]

Be good to get competition onto those routes, in the same way I miss WW off BHD-STN, nothing like a healthy dose of rivalry to keep fares down!

[AerRyan]

What's the loads like on EWR?

[stab3.5up]

Not surprised with BE appalling time keeping!!

[mart901]

Flybe we're rated UK's most punctual last year......

[stab3.5up]

I suppose if you take out all the canx flights probably and what ever other way they fiddle the stats

[flying officer kite]

Do you have proof that they are 'fiddling' the stats? I thought BMI Regional held the most punctual title?

[stab3.5up]

You mean all airlines are transparent in how they work out there timings lol 😉

[flying officer kite]

Their*

Again, your proof of this??

[GAZMO]

Recent posts appear to be related to Flybe?? They fly from BHD not BFS!!


Any other rumours ......of note

[BFS BHD]

Is Jet2 still doing the Toulouse & Plovdiv ski flights in W15/16?
If so which company do they operated them for?
Can't seem to find the flights anywhere.

[GAZMO]

Plovdiv is still going this winter. I believe it is via Travel Solutions (weekly flight). Please check their website.
Don't know about Toulouse

[BFS BHD]

Aha! Thanks for the info! :)

[GAZMO]

any other rumours floating about?

[BFS BHD]

Seen this quote on Belfast International Airports website during the Belfast Mela event BFS Business Development Director Uel Hoey was speaking to Turkish Airways Vice-President, Sales (Americas, UK and Ireland), Mustafa Dogan.

Hope it comes to something the time!!

During the event, Uel met up with senior figures from Turkish Airlines including the airline’s Vice-President, Sales (Americas, UK and Ireland), Mustafa Dogan.

Airport delighted with Belfast Mela event - Belfast International Airport (http://www.belfastairport.com/en/blog/8/502/airport-delighted-with-belfast-mela-event.html)

[BFS BHD]

Whats happening to EXS362 PMI-BFS?
Was holding near Valencia Airport at 10,000ft for a while and now heading into Alicante.
Guessing they will put the passenger on the ALC based B733 and fly them home if its something to do with the aircraft?

[david1994]

Went tech in PMI so flew to ALC to swap with CELJ estimated takeoff in ALC is 0000 Local

[Aaron9890]

i see there are 2 Budapest flights departing from BFS tonight. I understand that one is for the Hungarian national football team but why is there 2? Different carriers and departures are 2 hours apart.

QS4876 BUDAPEST 23:30 CHECK IN AT DESK 16-18
AXE4491 BUDAPEST 02:00 CHECK IN AT DESK 32-34

[strawberry Ribena]

Normally you get one for the team and another for fans. Watch Manchester when champions league is on. Mainly Titan and jet2

[GAZMO]

Currently 11.5 hour delay on one of the flights. Plenty of time for some siteseeing!!!!

[GAZMO]

EZY now have flights on sale for early summer. Not much change?

NCL appears to have extra MON and FRi flights
AMS starting double Mon and Fri earlier in season than last year
JER, only Sat last year until July, now double from start of season

No ACE or MLA yet??

[BFS BHD]

Some interesting quotes in the latest airport blog:

The bounce back from the dark days of recession was well and truly underway with passenger numbers and business activity reaching a nine-year high.

On the passenger side, June, July and August showed impressive growth, peaking in August with numbers up 11.1% on the corresponding month last year.
On the domestic side alone, there were 24,000 additional passengers – easyJet’s London destinations accounted for more than half that figure.
Jet2 also enjoyed impressive growth with newcomer, Wizz air, carrying 6,000 passengers on its two routes.

More Info - Here (http://www.belfastairport.com/en/blog/1/504/what-a-%E2%80%98sizzler-of-a-summer.html)

[GAZMO]

Certainly good figures. Wonder if we can read anything into


"Airport Business Development Director, Uel Hoey, says work’s continuing to build on the holiday season"

[True Blue]

Wonderful Easyjet schedule to Lgw in the summer. A 10 hour gap in the flights during the day. Sometimes I wonder if airlines try to destroy routes.

[GAZMO]

Maybe they are waiting on picking up the EI Gatwick routes??

[mart901]

Or another carrier to compete with. I hate the way EZY's schedule works like that, BHX is the same, and no Sat flight in summer - this is where BE make their money.

NCE 2x weekly next summer.

[BFS BHD]

NCE 2x weekly next summer.

I don't think the 3rd flight started to July this year? :confused:

[GAZMO]

Maybe they are waiting on picking up the EI Gatwick routes??
Oops....already posted

[mart901]

BHD-LGW scheduled in throughout next summer. I doubt it somehow. It's IAG who need to surrender slots, I don't believe they have to surrender anything particularly, its the new operator that has to offer BHD/DUB.

[True Blue]

Have to say, having looked at a few routes out of Bfs, the Easyjet flight times are anything but business friendly on a number of routes. Have to wonder what the people who put these together are thinking.

Business friendly?????

Actually the more I see of Ezy, the more I am convinced they need some real competition out of Bfs.

[mart901]

BFS BHD

Sorry total blonde moment on NCE!

[OltonPete]

mart901

I think it is just a case that they know the route inside out now and that on a Saturday in summer they can make more money by sending the frame elsewhere.

However saying that I don't particularly understand the summer 16 BFS - BHX timings on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon the departure ex BHX at 17.50 is a little early unless of course they add an additional rotation at similar times to the third Thursday and Friday flight.

What a change with September - earlier this week five out of six consecutive inbounds on BFS-BHX were fully booked a good few days in advance although it was the Autumn fare at the NEC. Mind you no different next week EZY191 sold out Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday £309 one way.

Happy days for easy on BFS-BHX at least.

Pete

[mart901]

Pete

Thanks for taking up the point. Its a great service price wise I and various friends and family tend to use it over BE, despite it being further than BHD - I can watch the plane land in the distance at BHD from my house. I've someone coming on it tomorrow on a fully booked flight. I would prefer BE as its more comfortable and really fast on and off, EZY are really good though in my opinion for what they do, certainly much nicer experience than FR.

[BFS BHD]

Sunday and Wednesday flights.

BFS-KTW - WZZ1026 Departs 08:25 Arrives 12:05
KTW-BFS - WZZ1025 Departs 06:00 Arrives 07:55
(Both Sunday & Wednesday times)

[GAZMO]

Slightly better times, wonder if any new routes after their large Airbus order

[owenc]

What about Virgin Atlantic.

[VickersVicount]

What about Virgin Atlantic.

What about them?

[AerRyan]

What about them?

I'm sure it's safe to assume that they are talking about Virgins Summer Schedule.

[SecondDog]

I'm sure it's safe to assume that they are talking about Virgins Summer Schedule.

One additional flight for S16 so far

[BFS BHD]

I only see four departures, dates are: 23rd, 30th, 7th & 14th. I'm I missing one?

[SecondDog]

I only see four departures, dates are: 23rd, 30th, 7th & 14th. I'm I missing one?

perhaps not. Just something stuck in my head that they had extended to do 5 instead of 4. Might just have been a senior moment though.

[GAZMO]

Some good results from the CAA stats for August
Long may it continue
Wizzair good figures 3000 pax per route, surely they will look at some new routes soon

[mart901]

Wizzair sitting on about 93% load factor. Very pleased for BFS. Despite all the competition from DUB the airports still producing good results.

[BFS watcher]

The word on the street is that September is even better than August. Also what is the latest on Ryanair are they coming to BFS or BHD?

[josechung]

Some good results from the CAA stats for August
Long may it continue
Wizzair good figures 3000 pax per route, surely they will look at some new routes soon

I'd rather they make the existing routes 3 times a week.

[GAZMO]

Quite a few diversion from BHD coming in tonight
BA from LHR landed at 21.38.....problems or early closing at BHD

[CabinCrewe]

Fog. GLA was the same this morning

[mart901]

The fog across the lough is unreal tonight, can't see a thing across the water.

[AIRPORT66]

So seems a knew direct service to Brussels is on cards,both airports are in negotiations with an airline to operate it so wonder who will get it,they say tourism Ireland will have some kind of input into some kind of package so were have we seen this before.

[BFS BHD]

I see the airport has a new website. Looks good..

Link to the brussels talks: Flights from Belfast to Brussels ready for take-off - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk (http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/flights-from-belfast-to-brussels-ready-for-takeoff-31588612.html)

[ILS25]

Well saying that BA is on the board of Tourism Ireland, I think we can easily guess which airport it goes to.

Edit: sorry Airport66, just realised what you were saying at the end of your post.

[SecondDog]

Well saying that BA is on the board of Tourism Ireland, I think we can easily guess which airport it goes to.

Edit: sorry Airport66, just realised what you were saying at the end of your post.

Yes certainly seems a bit of an uncompetitive situation given how KLM went. I guess the All Ireland nature of TI is a way to bypass the obvious conflict of interest?

It certainly seems to be a major old( or perhaps free p) boys network in many facets of NI life.

[mart901]

Bout time - I've always said Brussels was a next step forward, fairly obvious it will be SN and if I was a betting man I would guess BHD stand the greater chance but you never know. Belgium is great to visit and the whole country and beyond is linked up with a fast and efficient rail service. Brussels is a good airport to transfer through. I will definitely be catching one of those flights!

[EI-BUD]

Brussels sounds like very exciting news indeed. Smaller sized aircraft I suspect more suited. A particularly challenging one I suspect with Dublin recently doubling capacity when Ryanair joined the route... Irrespective of any debate on Belfast airports, I don't think it matters 1 bit....

[mart901]

In the long run which airport is chosen indeed doesn't make a huge difference but I could see SN choosing BHD. Assuming it is SN the upside against DUB is the connections they can offer which NI needs, it will be more than just a point to point route I think.

[EI-BUD]

I'd agree mart01, will need interlining traffic but I suspect the Avrojet too big, perhaps Flybe ac, but not sure if it is still operating.... On the flip side if it is Brussels Airlines coming into BFS could feed the Newark flight.... Not that they would need to feed it,but it could be of some value to SN n developing the route.?

They have some strengths to the African continent in there network.....

[El Bunto]

I see the airport has a new website. Looks good..Just a pity that the Flight Information page is so awkward on a phone; by default one can only see the airline / destination / flight number and not the actual status ( the main reason people will be looking at the page! ) without scrolling left and right.

Big colourful airline logos consuming most of the space are pretty useless when 95% of them are Easyjet anyway...

[Avnu]

From what I can tell, Flybe is still operating one Q400 for SN which I can very well see operating the Belfast route.

[GAZMO]

TOM flight to Toronto tomorrow. Assume a one off charter
Fairly quiet on this thread at moment.....no further rumours

[shuttle4zulu]

"TOM flight to Toronto tomorrow. Assume a one off charter"

Probably the Sunwings positioning back to YYZ

[mart901]

easyJet release date for summer is next Thursday!

[GAZMO]

Overall good caa stats just out 11.9% rise in passenger numbers. Domestic very impressive

[panpanpanpan]

Strange query perhaps but curious anyway!

Let's hypothetically say I had an Aston Martin that I wanted to take for a blast along the runway and let's say I was unfortunate to lose control and total the beast, would my insurance cover me? Should I be there in the first place? Just relates to a strange story I've heard from a few different sources recently..:E

[ILS25]

Maybe this will clear it up for you.

Aston Martin Chief Executive has written off a supercar worth £150,000 (http://www.pgautomotive.com/aston-martin-chief-executive-car-write-off/)

[panpanpanpan]

Wow! I must have been out of the country when that happened, don't remember seeing or hearing anything on local media. Runway closed in the middle of the night, really? I thought Aldergrove were a 24 hour outfit with full ATC and Fire Service available. Lucky he didn't wipe out an ILS, that would have been seriously embarrassing, wonder who did the risk assessment for that episode.. Beautiful car though, glad the driver wasn't badly hurt.:ok:

[GAZMO]

Summer schedule out for EZY. Not much change from last year.
BHX double daily on Tue, Wed and Thurs during summer. Was only single last summer.
JER up to four time weekly!!
ACE still only to May 2016....maybe more to come

[BFS101]

A shame that Malta does not seem to be returning, even seasonally.

[AIRPORT66]

Seems Malta and Lanzarote have not been loaded yet but i hear Lanzarote will be Tue,Sat.

[BFS101]

Seems Malta and Lanzarote have not been loaded yet but i hear Lanzarote will be Tue,Sat.
Do you think that the Lanzarote flights, are taking the former Malta flight times???

[AIRPORT66]

Don't know who works these schedules out but Bhx is operating 2 times on Tue,Wed so they could have sacraficed Malta with these extra flights to Bhx.

[BFS watcher]

I see in the Newsletter that BFS management are talking about 16% growth in October and that level of growth throughout the winter, pretty stellar stuff. Maybe the corner has been turned and we can see more in the future.

[GAZMO]

Also to quote from NI news "Our airlines are reporting strong growth, and it is reasonable to expect that if this encouraging trend continues, we will see new destinations added to our Flight Information screens as we head into 2016."


New Destinations.......any guesses??

[BFS BHD]

Possible growth for Jet2 coming soon? Heard a B738 could join the BFS fleet soon!

[GAZMO]

As a fourth aircraft or to replace a 737?

[BFS BHD]

- GAZMO posted: As a fourth aircraft or to replace a 737?Not sure. :)


- Been looking on Thomson Airways website and noticed; Larnaca, Heraklion, Faro, Alicante, Gran Canaria, Antalya and Bodrum on the drop down list on their 'Flights' section of their website.

Likely using seats on Thomas Cook & EasyJet, but could be something to keep an eye on as I think they are still working on there schedule for S16!

[AIRPORT66]

Noticed also Antalya has appeared again in the Thomascook destinations list from Belfast,wonder are they considering in bringing it back after a few years away,chances are Thomson are taking a seating allocation on the Aerlingus flights from Bhd to Alc.

[GAZMO]

Cannot see much change in destinations for TCX and TOM. As airport66 suggested there are the additional flights next summer from BHD.

Wonder if EZY are going to finish summer schedule soon. ACE still showing flights to early May 2016, nothing after that?

[BFS BHD]

Any idea what airline is doing the Thomson Lakes and Mountains flights to Verona? Appears to be a Verona based airline.

VERONA
Dep: 13:00 Arr: 14:45

BELFAST (ALDERGROVE)
Dep: 15:35 Arr: 19:20

[BFS watcher]

Looks like growth at BFS 14.5% for October. Pretty damn good.

[West Brit]

Travelled through BFS late October. Haven't travelled for a while, impressed with the place, seemed like any medium sized airport. Inside bright, clean and modern. At that particular time loads of flights the place was buzzing. Generally speaking a pleasant experience. I got the feeling that this place is going to expand.
Areas for improvement, the toilets need totally revamped, a bit of work required in reducing the security congestion. Why did they knock done the middle pier (many moons ago of course) as the aircraft park as if it were still there, only difference travellers have to walk outside?

[AIRPORT66]

With all this good news on pax growth this year will we hear of any new routes this coming year.

[GAZMO]

Is it getting a little late for new route announcements for S16?

[ILS25]

Saw this in the BT regarding freight traffic

Call for freight help at Belfast International Airport - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/call-for-freight-help-at-belfast-international-airport-34183376.html)

[True Blue]

Departed from Bfs a few days ago, it was raining. The water coming down through the canopy as you approach the entrance was serious, you would have got more water on you under the roof than if you had just stayed out in the rain. It has been like that for years.

Why has it never been fixed, it is a disgrace?

TB

[BFS BHD]

AlbaStar will be doing flights to Reus for Thomson Airways from 28th June 2016 to 16th August 2016.

JQ4253 REU-BFS - 12:35-14:10
JQ4254 BFS-REU - 18:50-22:30

Don't think these are the right times don't see the aircraft sitting at BFS that long!

[El Bunto]

Call for freight help at Belfast International Airport - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/call-for-freight-help-at-belfast-international-airport-34183376.html)


Just another industry group looking for public money to further their own interests. It is perfectly possibly for private industry to fund road upgrades...

Perhaps they should ask the airport management why Cargolux recently chose Prestwick, or Turkish Cargo chose Shannon, as intermediate points instead of Belfast. Address those causes and you might have dedicated freighters which lift more in one go than the entire early-morning courier fleet.

Belfast will never compete with Dublin in terms of long-haul belly freight but haven't shown much gumption in attracting dedicated freighters.

[BFS BHD]

Tenerife and Gran Canaria both on sale for Winter 2016/17

Tenerife 1-2 weekly throughout the winter, no third flight on the last week of December/start of January like this winter.

Gran Canaria runs though November unlike this year where is stopped from October to December, no flights on Christmas week, break from 1st January to 19th February and a break from 9th April to 17th April.

No Lanzarote or Geneva yet.

[True Blue]

With Aer Lingus pulled from the Bhd - Lgw route for S16, will Easyjet increase their services on this route for next summer?

TB

[GAZMO]

Unless New operator comes in to BHD I can see an extra daily rotation on the cards.
Can't see BEE going back in to LGW, only FR

[GAZMO]

ACE now on sale for winter 16/17
Twice weekly although drops to weekly mid January to mid February 2017 and mid November

[BFS watcher]

The big question is who has got the slots? I would imagine that no-one will be happy if FR get them. Does anyone know when the decision will be made?

[EI-BUD]

My money is in easyJet reappearing at BHD for this route. I cant imagine them increasing BFS would be a suitable option?

[GAZMO]

Can't see EZY splitting the LGW route between two airports???? Could be wrong!
Most likely if EZY get the routes they will up BFS by one or two and sell other LGW slot

[mart901]

Wonder where this is all going - there was talk of EI increasing LHR, is this just a swap, or just hot air?? Hopefully the summer sun increase isn't coming on the back of LGW being cut, wonder have they even announced the cancelation of the route. Also interesting to see what EZY do, next year sitting on a capacity cut on LGW, this could be restored.

[True Blue]

I do not see any benefit in Easyjet splitting Lgw over 2 airports here. They hold the largest slice of slots at Lgw so can move them around to increase capacity at Bfs, I would have thought. Much harder for a new entrant to get good slots at Lgw, unless the EI times have to be handed over?Fr to place one plane at Bhd to fly three times a day to Lgw, I think they will want higher usage than that.

Hard to see who might take this up. BA could take it over, but why do that if EI is cheaper to run?

TB

[EI-BUD]

True Blue,

At the face of it easyJet would not want to split the operation. However, there is an opportunity for a new entrant to enter the Belfast London market. Ryanair have publicly expressed an interest. Hence, easyJet will tactically want to secure the new slots to keep Ryanair out.

It was clear that Aer Lingus were for adding the very successful Gatwick link when the new euro routes were announced. They are unlikely to want to get into a fruitless war like they did v Flybe previously.

I think we'll hear within weeks the future plans... From whoever is taking it. I don't see any operator interested in getting onto Dublin London Gatwick. DY FR and EZY are the only real contenders.

EI-BUD

[BFS watcher]

Aer Lingus to end flights between Belfast and Gatwick from March - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/34808848)

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Rumour has it FR to City not here however also rumoured to be w routing from DUB.

[AIRPORT66]

They say this move will let them concentrate on the Lhr route using larger aircraft,could this be the end of Ba on the Lhr service from Belfast.what larger aircraft are they talking about the A321.

[EI-BUD]

Airport66,

Upgrade to 320 size on bhd LHR...

[True Blue]

Ultimately BA will want to reduce rotations to as few as possible to squeeze capacity and drive yields. They are now a monopoly to Lhr for those who cannot see past that airport. I would say there will be no more that 5/6 flights a day eventually.

TB

[SecondDog]

Rumour has it FR to City not here however also rumoured to be w routing from DUB.

Where did you hear City? Loads of people seem to think International will get FR in?

[Husky One]

So RYR left the City because the runway wasn't big enough and their 737's often couldn't carry a full load on domestic routes. What has changed to suddenly make LGW rotations viable? If they launch it from BFS you can be assured of Armageddon. It's one the few routes I can see EZY defending to the death.
I hope common sense prevails and a real airline has a go at it. I'd even prefer Flybe took it back on a q400.

[shoe shine]

I hear Menzies met with FR head of engineering yesterday, can anything be read into that meeting? I believe the decision has been made and it's city.

[EI-BUD]

'harp tailed halfwits'

Husky One,

No need for such commentary which just sounds daft. Call Ryanair what you wish, but stupid they are not. Love them or hate them, they are amazingly successful...

[Husky One]

Didn't say they weren't. The term perhaps more accurately describes those who dabble with the organization. Yes a few thousand people will get a ticket for £1 and in the aftermath airports, handling agents, wannabe crew get burned and when they're done they'll bugger off again into the sunset claiming it was somebody else's fault. Genius.
Previous post edited lest I offend the radical O'Leary fans.

[madgav]

What use would Ryanair be at city? They've been there before, promised much and delivered little (although same could be said of EI in Belfast I suppose!).
I'd be happy to see FR in belfast but only if there was half a chance of them bringing some new and interesting routes -for which they would need to be at BFS.
Not to operate one domestic route from city.....

[shoe shine]

I think there will be two domestics, both London initially, and plans for other destination from winter 16. At the minute they are mainly talking the traditional sun routes which AL currently serve but the hope is to encourage them to do other unserved routes.

[ILS25]

I hear Menzies met with FR head of engineering yesterday, can anything be read into that meeting? I believe the decision has been made and it's city.

I wouldn't read anything into that. It means nothing.

[AIRPORT66]

In fact they also have been talking to SR Technics on a few occasions recently at Bfs,so as was said above really wouldn,t look into that info to much.

[PinOnTheRight]

So RYR left the City because the runway wasn't big enough and their 737's often couldn't carry a full load on domestic routes. What has changed to suddenly make LGW rotations viable?

Domestic flights were not an issue. They possibly were initially but eventually flights were uncapped and departed/arrived regularly with 189Y. MOL wanted to expand with European routes but couldn't do so unless the runway was extended, hence RYR left.

[True Blue]

Have to say, that whilst I am no great fan of Ryanair, I do believe that Ezy are almost holding Bfs and in turn the paying passenger to ransom. It looks to me that they carefully control capacity and while I accept that they need to make a profit, I do think it is going to far now. Take a Saturday in winter, the last flight back from London is at 18.05 pm from Luton. I do not believe that a later flight would not work and be profitable from any London airport. Next summer, the first flight on a Sunday to Lgw is at 16.20 pm , a major airport for connections and of no use to N Ireland residents due to this useless schedule. On a Saturday next summer the last flight back from London is at 14.50 pm. During the week next summer, the first flight to Lgw is at 6.15 am, the next is at 16.20 pm, a gap of 10 hours.

Seems to me that Ezy need some serious competition to make them sit up and take notice. Maybe some serious competition in the form of Fr or Norwegian might make them put in some decent schedules and stop this practice of almost dropping the likes of Birmingham during the summer so that the aircraft can do sun routes instead. Clearly it benefits Ezy, but not the local airport(Bfs) or the paying passenger.

TB

[mart901]

Definitely TrueBlue. I do like EZY but I agree, far too dominant. It would do BFS and as you say local economy well to see another operator there or the expansion of maybe LS. You mention BHX, its a great service pricing wise and useless timing wise, and in summer no Sat flights. I also notice BE scaling quietly back to 6x daily next summer, although other routes have increased. Hate FR passionately but it may just stir things up......:)

[BFS watcher]

If Ryanair are coming to BFS and it is starting to look very likely, this will be Armageddon for Flybe and BHD. With the 2 strongest airlines in Europe operating from Aldegrove, Flybe are almost certainly be the 1st casualty, at least by default we may end up with one strong airport at Aldegrove and City returns to being development land from the Harbour Commissioners. Long term great for NI

[PPRuNeUser0176]

If Ryanair are coming to BFS and it is starting to look very likely, this will be Armageddon for Flybe and BHD. With the 2 strongest airlines in Europe operating from Aldegrove, Flybe are almost certainly be the 1st casualty, at least by default we may end up with one strong airport at Aldegrove and City returns to being development land from the Harbour Commissioners. Long term great for NI

Easyjet won't do well either, look at Rome, FR came in and they are more less pulling out of the airport. Flybe were perfectly fine last time FR were at City.....

I think BHD will be chosen for the UK routes.

[GAZMO]

ALC, FUE and LPA now on sale for winter 16/17
ALC available to hid Nov 16 then from mid FEB

Oops LPA already on sale

[EI-BUD]

BFS watcher,

Flybe are catering for a very specific segment of the market, city to city. They are not aiming for mass market at lowest price. A return of Ryanair to the Belfast market would have have the least impact to Flybe of any carrier..

Let's not forget on Ryanair's last entry, they operated STN, EMA, LPL, BRS and PIK. At that time without any increase in frequency BE grew numbers on LGW route. EasyJet held its own on its routes, though STN and LPL took a hit of about 5k pax each per month. Obviously, all involved suffered on yield. PIK was a disaster, some flights coming in and out with as few as 20 pax!!! Ryanair had widespread £1 all in fares each way, it was a bonanza for the public. So Belfast has established players, easyJet is well established, I think it would hold its own if Ryanair came back....

[Husky One]

Once again and several years on we find ourselves in the 'careful what you wish for scenario'. Adding a new carrier into the mix provides only a temporary advantage to passengers in the form of cheap fares. Ultimately whoever emerges as winner gets to play monopoly and can charge what they like and schedule what they like. Flybe have been around for decades and have brought a lot to the NI economy. These days they are also reasonably competitive so I'd be wary of plotting their demise and disappointed to see it given the alternatives on offer.
The reason easyJet dumped FCO has nothing to do with Ryanair. The fire at FCO was the end on of a tenuous relationship with FCO where OTP was awful and yield wasn't much better. Their model is based on return on capital and they don't hang around when that is put under strain as they have plenty of other options. Great for shareholders but not for passengers or staff (take note BFS)
The BFS to London schedules next summer are similar to last year and previous year's although there may be odd additions in the wake of EI's departure. They are all based on maximization of yield and take no account of connecting passengers as easyjet have no interline agreements. The schedule gap during the day reflects the unavailability of aircraft at those times because they are all across Europe taking the leisure brigade on their holidays. Those flights are the money makers in summer. That's not going to change much as there are no airframes to do it. The schedule in summer always reflects the importance of the international timetable.
Nothing has changed at BHD to suggest Ryanair would stay longer than before. They can't do international routes with the -800. The runway isn't getting bigger anytime soon. I'd be surprised if BHD had made a penny out of the last deal. Those circumstances are unlikely to change either.

[EI-BUD]

Husky One,

You make some very valid points in your last post. The comment re 'monopoly' is especially true. Though FR will want to be in the market, all markets and consolidation had been a factor of our time, this was written in the stars when the deregulation of the market came about. But of course that's worthy of much debate.

I wholeheartedly disagree with comments that easyJet's curtailment at fco is not due to FR and is more to do with the fire, otp etc. 'and yield was no better '... The reason yield was no better was due to intense competition in the market, namely from FR and VY.

OTP is important clearly, and if yield is their ezy will work with the airport to remedy otp...

EasyJet tend to be very commercial, ie they don't engage in protracted battles with rivals who have cost advantage and deep pockets.... Many examples, Madrid, Rome.. They wouldn't spend time in these markets where they can't win, and they can deploy aircraft more profitably elsewhere..

Ex STN they are now faced with intense rivalry on STN domestics. It isn't showing any sign of letting up. Whereas the 2 compete on lots of routes like LPL ALC, the 2 exist comfortably in the interest of high yield, sun routes...

[True Blue]

Husky One

I agree with and accept everything you say, except Fco as I do not have enough knowledge on that issue to comment. My comments are more about the differing needs of Ezy and the pax they serve. It may well suit Ezy to have their aircraft deployed in the manner you say, but the paying pax have a slightly different need. At the moment, I can't get a flight to Lgw on a Saturday next summer from Belfast to allow me to connect to a flight that departs Lgw mid-afternoon. And then the local airports and no doubt the airlines, wonder why so many travel out of Dublin. It will be 8 pax that will be lost to a local airport that I would prefer to support.

TB

[True Blue]

If Ryanair had been making money down at Bhd last time, why would they ever have left?

TB

[EI-A330-300]

If Ryanair had been making money down at Bhd last time, why would they ever have left?

Yes, if not for losses but somebody's ego and if you make such a public threat if they didn't leave it would be disaster for them.

Would also suspect APD was an element as they scaled back a few domestic routes then but look at EDI/GLA-STN back operating and doing well or at least we are lead to believe.

[BFS watcher]

Contact down in Dublin telling me 12 routes within 18 months from BFS with 5 based aircraft by winter 17. LGW, EMA, BHX, ALC, TFS, BRU, CGN, STN, AGP, AMS, GLA and BGY. Looks like they wil go after both Easy and Flybe Other routes being considered are SXF and various Eastern European destinations plus BCN and MAD.

[BFS BHD]

Hmmmm..... Any Date on when Ryanair will announce these route...

[AerRyan]

Amsterdam? I can't see it.

[True Blue]

Well if they are looking to expand to that degree it won't be at Bhd.

Tb

[mart901]

Hold back everyone, until it happens anyway. FR won't drastically hurt their DUB operations while nobody is hurting them. They may or may not appear here, I'm undecided as to whether it would be a good thing or not but tell you one thing for certain EZY haven't spent the last 17 years at BFS building a fairly substantial operation for FR to come blundering in and drive them out, and to a fair degree I believe BE can hold their own on more marginal routes, a lot easier making a profit trying to fill a DH8 than a 738, I'm sure their 22 year history at BHD won't end overnight without a fight either! Not every battle does FR win!

[BHD2BFS]

From what I have heard it will not be a huge announcement from FR
I've heard that they are looking at STN and/or LGW and it will be BHD
Both will be done by either a STN aircraft flying into BHD similar to what EZY do into BFS in the mornings
and if LGW is done it will be a W pattern from DUB

FR know where their passengers travel from to use them, if people are happy to travel to DUB from NI and help them fill their flight, then FR is not going to come to their doorstep when they don't need to, to then worry about loads
Same situation on the transatlantic flight by EI from BFS. When they realised very quickly they didn't need to open up long haul flights from belfast when passengers where very happy to travel to dublin for them

[Husky One]

So according to the rumour network now, RYR are coming to BFS to duplicate half of easyjet's network. Has anybody told BFS this because that would be a laughable business decision. Alienate your number one customer to a point where they'll massively scale down their operation or move it for the sake of a few 737's that will deliver less in revenue to the airport. I can't see BFS falling for that one...they never have before although perhaps the latest owners are more naive than their predecessors.

[eastern wiseguy]

Before I left some two years ago ,I was told that RYR would be operating from BFS within six months. I could take that to the bank....apparently.

Other cast iron rumours included a Chinese carrier which would have operated on a weekly basis and a cargo area with huge tax advantages to the operator (unnamed).

You don't want to hear the military rumours.

Let me know when I may exhale.:rolleyes:

[GAZMO]

Even BT now speculating!!!
Ryanair may take off from Belfast again - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/life/travel/ryanair-may-take-off-from-belfast-again-34202849.html)

[West Brit]

FR to come BFS!! they have been trying for years - 2001 after 9/11 'FR are coming to BFS'..... They only let the select few in up there.... BA would do well to come back were they belong if BFS will permit them back. Late slots from LHR large aircraft..... they would save ££££s

[Cozy F]

Safe to say something is cooking I'd say.


BA, IAG will look to optimize their UK services into Heathrow. BA has successfully taken out BM and Aer Lingus in the last few years, so NO competition left, and very valuable slots, particularly for smaller aircraft operating. If you were BA you would look at every short GB operation into LHR, decide where you needed capacity for business passengers and feed - and remove every other flight that doesn't contribute to that, using BA or Aer Lingus brand where it best suits particular markets.


If Heathrow flying gets capped in that way from throughout the UK, IRL then it is an opportunity for the other London airports, who are comparatively less curtailed, to grow some services from the regions.


Gatwick will develop from Belfast and Dublin because the EU has made that a condition of the IAG T/O of EI. Aer Lingus were set to come off Belfast as soon as that condition was set out, and neither they nor BA will be facilitated to develop on Dublin or Belfast into Gatwick. So that leaves EZY, FR, flybe or Norwegian for that. Time will tell. Also, if Heathrow flying is limited, it may provide further opportunity for Stanstead, LCY and Luton to grow UK, ROI flights?


As to the Ryanair speculation from Belfast, reckon that will always be there. They are Europe's largest airline, Ireland is their Home and they now operate flights certainly from every major region throughout GB in parallel with easyJet, and the only point in the uk that they don't do that from is BFS.


But only they know what way they see their growth happening. as is clear there are a lot of Belfast passengers using Dublin, mainly due to a limited choice from BFS. Ryanair will be getting a number of them, but so will EI and other European airlines from Dublin. the one way FR are guaranteed to pick up all of those passengers and stop other airlines benefiting is to offer low fares direct from Belfast and capture that business exclusively. They might also see some benefit in having a Belfast programme to keep DUB keen, even if that's only in a small way, and it is clear that there are many opportunities for FR to look at across Europe from Belfast - some of which would add to existing routes and some of which would open up new ones.


Then of course they might not be looking at it that way - but I'm sure Belfast is not a place that Never crosses their mind

[stab3.5up]

I agree somethings afoot for sure.

[GAZMO]

Agree something afoot, but when will we hear if BHD or BFS

[stab3.5up]

Or both or as this is aviation, nothing!

[OneBellEnd]

This stuff has all to do with Gatwick slots issuing from the BA take-over of AerL.


Thing is have Ryanair applied for Belfast to Gatwick? Wud have thought best solution for Gatwick competing with BA, EI Heathrow would be more FR from DUB and more EZY from BFS?


But If Ryan are planning on returning to Belfast and Both airports are interested, would have def thought BFS makes a lot more sense for them. Only reason they served City before was because Aer Ligus were in Aldergrove and Ryanair ddnt want to give them a free run. No longer that way.


Also if they want the opportunity to serve all of Europe from the north, then has to be BFS where there are no limits on runway, flying hours, terminal and general ability to Grow, for an airline who wants no limits on how much they fly their planes.


The city has done well to develop the way it has with flybe, Heathrow and more recently European fleg carriers but it is already heaving at its peaks and is situated on a postage stamp, locked in by a major road, Bombardier, retail which means that even if thgey ever extended the rwy to try to bring in higher volume flights like Ryanair, EZY they'd still have big problems to try to overcome like aircraft parking taxiways, road blockages and so on. Meantime Ryanair would have none of these problems at BFS, IF they can get the right deal to use there?

[NWSRG]

You don't want to hear the military rumours.

Oh go on! We do... :E

A Typhoon squadron for QRA? Would be nice! Or maybe P8s? Can dream...

[BFS watcher]

I wonder what happened this time with the latest diversion? BFS must be getting fed up taking everyone else's diversions and emergencies. It shows the benefit of a long runway, Cat3 and a cross runway.

[AerRyan]

I'd sure BFS are very fed up with all the extra income from diversions.

[panpanpanpan]

So Ryanair comes to Belfast, passenger numbers go through the roof, will the subsequent profits reflect that? I remember having a chat with a Harbour manager years ago at a function when Ryanair were there and he was lamenting the fact that although it looked fantastic on paper the numbers didn't translate into cash.

The trick will be to keep the established airlines happy, in this case Easy, if they spit the dummy out then Aldergrove will not be in a happy place. I would find it strange though if Ryanair go head to head with Easy when they would have a relatively free run down at Harbour but who knows! Aviation is a strange marketplace to try and guess.:ooh:

[GAZMO]

From BT this morning quoting Easyjet CEO "Easyjet is to unveil yet another new route from its Belfast International hub" ..........any ideas

[OneBellEnd]

Probably Leeds.

[mart901]

Not all CAA figures out yet but looks well, LON routes especially LTN which is in huge growth, EZY's move to increase winter frequency has really paid off.

GTW + 14%

STN + 16%

LTN + 38%

[GAZMO]

Good results on the LON routes. From media report overall passengers should be up 22% in October

[EI-A330-300]

Im sure a certain little event in October is a big part of LON growth.

[BFS BHD]

GAZMO Said:
From BT this morning quoting Easyjet CEO "Easyjet is to unveil yet another new route from its Belfast International hub" ..........any ideas

Irish News is reporting this:

"And although there's nothing we can confirm at the moment, there'll be new routes from Belfast to other destinations in 2016."

''But she wouldn't comment on speculation that Copenhagen and a city in Germany are on easyJet's radar right now.''

Hopefully Lanzarote will be released for S16 too soon for EZY!

[GAZMO]

Flights to PMI and FAO on sale for April 2017

[BFS BHD]

Interesting article about Qatar Airways considering Belfast International for a Doha Service, but of course Dublin is also being considered...

Flights to Ireland, among options under review, could target either the capital Dublin, competing with Dubai-based Emirates and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways PJSC, or Belfast in Northern Ireland, a location not yet served by any of the three leading Gulf carriers.

Qatar Air Mulls Gatwick Route as Heathrow Flight Upgraded to 787 - Bloomberg Business (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/qatar-air-mulls-gatwick-route-as-heathrow-flight-upgraded-to-787)

I would say it will be Dublin that gets the service but at least they are thinking of starting to Belfast!

[GAZMO]

At least it would be different if they chose BFS rather than competing with the other two Middle East carriers......probably wishful thinking since they are part of the one world alliance, same as BA and EI

[carsonEGAD]

What are the odds they'll actually choose BFS over DUB doubt we'll be seeing them here but as BFS BHD said it's good they're thinking of us, BFS management must be doing something right.

[Sober Lark]

These guys at Qatar, Emirates and EY consider serving the population of the island of Ireland as a total 6.4 million population market.


With volatility of Sterling you probably wouldn't get Euro traffic going North. That coupled with and threat of the UK leaving the EU would leave Qatar running the risk of relying on Northern Ireland's population of 1.8 million to justify a service in its own right. I wouldn't say it adds up. Perhaps the proposal of equalising Corporation tax with the ROI might improve prospects and I hope it does.

[madgav]

Not sure it's possible to 'serve' all of Ireland from Dublin any more than its possible to serve all of England from London. Ok maybe not the greatest comparison but im thinking of geographical catchment rather than population. People in belfast are going to want to fly from their local airport (where possible) just as much as people living near SNN, ORK, etc, or the uk regions - and the choice of connecting options from belfast has improved a lot over the last year or two.

The gulf carriers have already demonstrated their ability to serve regional airports not just the larger hubs.
Belfast at 7m pax pa must be just about the largest UK regional market with no me3 service. Suspect one of them will serve us eventually....

Certainly nice to see some varied and interesting rumours on this thread though! :)

[NWSRG]

With the 787 and A350 coming on stream, maybe we have a chance. These aircraft were supposed to open up the "longer, thinner" routes...EK seem to be the ones who can make these things work, and they are mulling over a 787-10 / A359 order...

[Una Due Tfc]

B788 is small enough to make it work I would think. Anything else is too large IMO.

I wonder how much market is left on the island for the ME carriers? The unmentionable have cut their DUB service down to 1 daily for the first half of next year, and have stopped sending the 777 up too. With the economies up here picking up the young people are coming back from Oz, and those that aren't have settled down enough where they don't come home twice a year anymore.

Still competition is good, regardless of which airport they rock up to prices will drop as a result.

[All names taken]

I think this often-stated notion of '7m Belfast passengers pa so we should have xy or z international services' overlooks some important unique characteristics of the NI market.
First, most of the services that make up the 7m are flights to GB - someone will be able to provide the actual figure but this is the bread and butter business of airports in NI.
Secondly, since NI has obvious political and cultural links to GB but is physically detached, the number is distorted because the same kind of journeys if they were in GB would be made by train or car.
Thirdly, the population of NI is tiny, about the same as Kent. It's profile (for all the wrong reasons) allows it to punch above its weight already.
Fourth, Dublin and the new improved motorway that gets you there from Belfast in less time than it takes to drive from Central London to Gatwick.

The fact that Belfast has only just been able to attract KLM Cityhopper on a modest frequency should serve as a reality check.

[West Brit]

There have been 3 return flights to Amsterdam on a M-F basis as well as Sabena flights operating at the same time both with based aircraft pre 2001.
There have been regular flights to Canada / Florida all summer long pre 2007. NI has all the top tourist attractions Giants Causeway, Titantic etc
It has been stated that most flights certainly EZY are 90% FULL that includes international flights. So although we are punching low at the moment I am quite confident that the dynamics will change soon.


The problem is Dublin is cheaper and offers more destinations and as a bonus good ground transport links.
Dublin is not far off its ceiling while Belfast is at the bottom of the ladder - plenty of room to climb.
All it will take is someone like Norwegian to come into Belfast and offer multiple transatlantic destinations, and the Dublin bubble will start to slowly deflate!!!

[panpanpanpan]

West Brit, I fear your enthusiasm is perhaps a tad misplaced. The main problem is that Aldergrove regularly set themselves a very low standard which they consistently fail to achieve. For years they were fixated on the perceived threat from Harbour and as a result failed to recognise the real threat was actually some distance down the road! A very smooth and easily travelled road at that!:p

The investment now required to bring Aldergrove to have a fighting chance against Dublin, both in facilities and infrastructure, is mind boggling. Couple this with the fact that we have a group of politicians who can barely agree on what day it is and there are massive problems to be dealt with.

Dublin has become the first choice for international travel by a lot of NI people, it has invested heavily and is reaping the rewards. Meanwhile Aldergrove management bleat about how unfair everything is and how ever other airport is stealing THEIR business, cargo, passengers etc. Well guess what, people and airlines have a choice and they are choosing to use Dublin, get over it!:mad:

[Una Due Tfc]

Consolidation is the name of the game in aviation now. The "hub buster" 787 is not being used as such, it is increasing frequency between hubs, and opening new hub and spoke routes. With the small geographical and population size of this island, one airport was always going to grab the lions share of routes and pax once the road network was finally sorted, more so if a proper rail network is ever built. Dublin as the largest population center and being halfway between the 2nd and 3rd largest was always in pole position for that.

I remember when I could fly to FRA wilth Luftie or CDG with AF from SNN while Luftie sent a single heavy a day into DUB. Now those SNN routes are long gone never to return, while DUB has multiple daily A321s to FRA with Luftie and AF multiple daily too. This is echoed across the industry.

[carsonEGAD]

If Qatar sent a daily A320 surely that would be viable.
According to Great Circle Mapper the distance from DOH-BFS is approx 3541 miles (yes I know it's not 100% accurate due to winds, detours etc) and the range of an A320 is around 3600 miles depending on various factors.
With 132-144 seats on their A320's surely it wouldn't be that difficult to get a good number of them seats filled without having to make a huge sacrifice for fuel?
Although in saying that some people wouldn't like to fly for ~7.5 hours on an A320 and would probably prefer to use EK or EY in a W/B aircraft from Dublin.

[eastern wiseguy]

@Carson. Nice idea but I think that even with a reduced load you are looking at a fuel stop on the way to NI at the very least. The great circle takes a track directly through Iraq. If I am not mistaken most flights to and from the Gulf States route east of Iraq via Iran . That alone would increase the mileage. Add on the standard IFR reserves and an intermediate stop looks increasingly likely. That would increase time enroute and have an inevitable cost penalty.

Who knows though?

[El Bunto]

The backing for "Qatar to Belfast" is unlikely to come from Belfast International but from other agencies.

InvestNI are promoting heavily in that country ( and the UAE ) and local companies have won a few interesting contracts there. I can imagine that that agency is more likely to be effective in cajoling our politicians into providing incentives.

[BFS watcher]

The full power of the Irish State including Tourism Ireland will make sure that those Northern upstarts will get nowhere. A private company up against a sovereign state! Good luck to the BFS management however can you see those Sormont muppets doing any thing positive to help?

[eastern wiseguy]

@Owenc. There are regular advertisements for NI as a business base and Ireland (as an entity) for vacations in this part of the US.

[Tower Ranger]

Can't see an A320 being the weapon of choice if Qatar were going to venture north of the border. Apart from it not being able to make it without a stop the fares would need to be very low to make spending 8 hours in one seem like a decent proposition compared to EK into Dublin.

[madgav]

I think this often-stated notion of '7m Belfast passengers pa so we should have xy or z international services' overlooks some important unique characteristics of the NI market.I'm sorry if my post came across like that, it certainly wasn't my intention. There was no implication of entitlement to any particular airline or route. It is however fair to say "we have 7m pa which is a substantial market and there are likely to be other unserved routes that would be viable, if not immediately then sometime in the future".
And I would have thought that a mid east route would be one of BFS' primary targets for the future....

First, most of the services that make up the 7m are flights to GB - someone will be able to provide the actual figure but this is the bread and butter business of airports in NI.
Secondly, since NI has obvious political and cultural links to GB but is physically detached, the number is distorted because the same kind of journeys if they were in GB would be made by train or car.These are really the same point are they not? Anyway t'was always so as long as I can remember. But how many of those domestic pax are connecting on to international flights to destinations not served directly from Belfast? Or even to destinations served from Belfast but where there is a cheaper option with a connection. I've done both. Many times.

allows it to punch above its weight already.First time I've ever heard NI airports described as punching above their weight! Our 7m pa is less than 20% of the passenger total for all airports on the island of Ireland, which is actually lagging somewhat behind our nearly 30% of the population......

Fourth, Dublin and the new improved motorway that gets you there from Belfast in less time than it takes to drive from Central London to Gatwick.I don't fancy either of those road journeys if there is any alternative :)
Anyway, hardly unique. There must be plenty of cities with perfectly adequate, if geographically lengthy, road links to airports serving another city.

The fact that Belfast has only just been able to attract KLM Cityhopper on a modest frequency should serve as a reality check.But we've had a successful AMS link for well over 10 years, albeit with EZY. And if I'm reading the figures correctly, the EZY AMS loads haven't been significantly affected by the (apparently also successful, so far) arrival of KL....

the distance from DOH-BFS is approx 3541 miles (yes I know it's not 100% accurate due to winds, detours etc) and the range of an A320 is around 3600 milesSorry, but with those figures that is just not doable. Not that I would personally have any objection to a narrowbody on the route....

Yes it would be nice if it happened, but my guess is that if QR want to start flights to Ireland then it is more likely that they would start with DUB (hope I'm wrong of course!). If they (ME3) all end up at DUB then perhaps at some time in the future one of them will look at also serving BFS.

[Fairdealfrank]

Not going to happen. Any long haul at Aldergrove would be North America related, such as the former CO route.

[madgav]

Not going to happen.

Not going to happen now? Realistically that is probably the more likely outcome :} What about in the next few years? Hope you're not saying 'never'. Never is a long time :)

Any long haul at Aldergrove .

'Any' long haul? Long haul already exists at BFS with UA, VS, TCX. ...

such as the former CO route.


I take it you are referring to the EWR route formerly operated by CO and currently operated by UA? ;)

[left rudder]

Watched Ulster v Sarries on Friday and noted Turkish Airlines had notable presence in touchline and perimeter advertising.
Significant?

[GAZMO]

Probably not.......as they are probably advertising at all grounds where European matches are being held

[ia350]

They are sponsors for the European cup so I'd say its nothing to get excited about .

[Fairdealfrank]

Former? Eh?



I take it you are referring to the EWR route formerly operated by CO and currently operated by UA?


It's still going? Brilliant! Thought UA pulled it, maybe mixing it up with BRS(?)



'Any' long haul? Long haul already exists at BFS with UA, VS, TCX. ...


All North America related, of course.



Not going to happen now? Realistically that is probably the more likely outcome :} What about in the next few years? Hope you're not saying 'never'. Never is a long time


Very fair comment, came badly unstuck with AI at BHX!

Let me rephrase: balance of probability is against, think it's very unlikely.

[Cozy F]

Forgive my perhaps total ignorance, but really why Not Qatar from Northern Ireland??

Despite the obvious hurdles of the occasional lunar spectacles of fleg waving and bottle throwing which the media so helpfully shy away from covering in glorious techno colour & the bin lid dummy-spitting up on the hill and so forth, afaik Etihad, Emirates and Turkish all employ dedicated sales resources in the NI market. Are they doing that coz they're totally clueless about where business is coming from??

And, whether people like to believe it or not Ireland is still a small, recently badly struggling economy out floating in the Atlantic off Europe. There is not the genuine base in the economy of London or other major capitals, or even Manchester or Birmingham.

So why would Qatar want to try to establish themselves as very much the last of the four Asian hub carriers from DUB at a time when Etihad have seen enough of the mad land-grab of the last few years and are radically cutting back?

Is a free run at the northern market with a sensible size of aircraft to mop up local business which clearly the other three are all clamouring to court not a reasonably attractive opportunity?

You have to presume if QR managers have actually mentioned Belfast in media coverage that this thought has at least crossed their mind n all.

[madgav]

I was going to ask the same question but decided not to bother. Not being privy to the route planning strategy of the ME3/4/3½ or the intricacies of the NI aviation market, I cannot offer any real evidence as to if/why any route may or may not be viable either now or in the foreseeable future.
I would certainly think it's possible though and would stand by my earlier statement that I think one of these carriers will serve us at some point in the future.

[GAZMO]

Good stats for Oct just out by CAA
Up 14.6% compared to last October and nearly 4.3 million pax for last 12 months

[BFS BHD]

Looks like Ryanair are going to BHD! Can BFS not get any new airline this year!!

[ia350]

Just a quick question , why do NI have two airports ? Is there a need for two ?

[ia350]

Sorry should have said Belfast .

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

A saw an ad in an American radio station promoting Northern Ireland. How do you see an ad on radio? Or do you mean you cut one in two in a radio station? This is not at all clear.

Why not one of the ME3 in Belfast? Well never say never but looking at some of the airports ahead of the combined NI throughput gives you the following and the dominant hub with ME3 connectivity.
STN / LTN / BRS (LHR)
LPL (MAN)
Oddly enough NCL does but EK don't serve EDI. DUB is just a much more commercially attractive given the fragmented market in NI. Also the balance between inbound business and outbound holidaymakers may also play a part.

[Fairdealfrank]

Just a quick question , why do NI have two airports ? Is there a need for two ?

Three airports in Northern Ireland: BFS, BHD, LDY.

[ia350]

I understand that , but you could at least read my second post .

[SecondDog]

Looks like Ryanair are going to BHD! Can BFS not get any new airline this year!!

I have seen this rumor in a couple of places today, where has it been announced please?

[BFS BHD]

Don't know, seen it on BHD thread on here. Press release is meant to be on Wednesday by that thread.

[eastern wiseguy]

If it is to be BHD I wonder what has changed since their last adventure down there?

The opening hours remain the same,the runway length remains the same,the aircraft performance remains the same,the reduced load factors remain the same,the boss of Ryanair remains the same ,the opposition from the airport protesters remains the same.If they couldn't make it work then what has changed that WILL make it work for them now?

Answers to me on the back of a brown envelope please.

[panpanpanpan]

[QUOTE]The opening hours remain the same,the runway length remains the same,the aircraft performance remains the same,the reduced load factors remain the same,the boss of Ryanair remains the same ,the opposition from the airport protesters remains the same.If they couldn't make it work then what has changed that WILL make it work for them now? [QUOTE]

Correct me if I'm wrong but was the reduced load factor not done away with after a period of time, definitely for the domestic routes, not sure about the bucket and spade stuff. Do Aldergrove still allegedly sponsor the concerned residents? All been very quiet from them recently although this potential announcement should wake them from their slumber!:E

[eastern wiseguy]

Any questions about sponsoring residents group should be addressed to the alleged sponsor.

So far as the good Doctor being quiet,I still see the occasional email shot from her group.

NB I "see" I do not subscribe.

[SealinkBF]

Ryanair are a different airline these days.

Gatwick Belfast is a decent route to market their business plus fares on, and I don't think BFS would risk irritating their pals Easy.

Are low cost airlines the best way for airports to make money?

[SecondDog]

Are low cost airlines the best way for airports to make money?

Depends on the airport but it can be the only way as they bring high volume traffic to the car parks and retail.

[BFS watcher]

Word on the street still that FR going to BFS. BHD also worried that Flybe are talking about moving to BFS as the terms being offered are way below that of BHD. Going to be an interesting few days

[BFS BHD]

@BFS Watcher - Word on the street still that FR going to BFS. BHD also worried that Flybe are talking about moving to BFS as the terms being offered are way below that of BHD. Going to be an interesting few days.

So there isn't a Ryanair announcement happening tomorrow at BHD? Im confused with the rumour!! One minute its BHD and the next its BFS.

[ILS25]

If this FR rumour is true I hope the contract that BFS signed with EZY at the start of the year is tighter than the one they had with EI.

[EI-BUD]

It is Starting to seem clear to me that the same poster on here has 2 usernames and posting contradictory information. I don't believe 1 poster on here knows much if anything about which Belfast Airport that Ryanair will use...

[eastern wiseguy]

Agreed......

[panpanpanpan]

The bottom line is simple, not one poster on here knows squat about the intentions of Ryanair, FleBe etc unless they have a direct contact in fairly high positions. I hear lots of unsubstantiated rumours when attending various business functions and social events but they are just that - speculation and rumour.

I can say without doubt the vast majority of ordinary workers don't know what the senior management of their company is planning, even if they did, are they really going to post it on a public forum populated by grumpy old bast*rds like me and lots of teenage spotters pretending to spend thousands per year on business travel??:hmm:

Summary - Ryanair to Aldergrove - possible but might not happen. Ryanair to Harbour - highly unlikely but might happen. Flybe to Aldergrove - paramount to business suicide.

Does this cover the latest few pages of this thread to date?:confused:

[BFS BHD]

I'm guessing Easyjet is still to announce something as there is a few gaps still for summer 2016?

Maybe waiting to see what happens with Ryanair?

[EI-BUD]

[on a public forum populated by grumpy old bast*rds like me and lots of teenage spotters pretending to spend thousands per year on business travel??:hmm:]

Don't know why quotations facility doesn't work on my pc, maybe something to do with windows 10 upgrade that I am avoiding perhaps .. perhaps .. perhaps.


No Panpanpanpan,


We've all been told, we are either grumply old b******s or teenage spotters, where does that leave me? LOL


We seldom agree, but Flybe going BFS is tantamount to commercial suicide, unless of course they did move the non competitive routes, like Cardiff, Aberdeen, Southampton, Leeds, E. Midlands, London City etc. etc. (god the list is long). It simply will not happen.


Lets now leave OwenC alone. There is good new coming for him. When Ryanair arrive and he can then commute over and back with them and their low fares he possibly could save up to £2750 on that travel budget, with their low fares.


Whatever happens re Ryanair they will hit Belfast with a bang and there may even be a mad introductory offer like last time. If they do go Belfast City London Gatwick at x3 daily with 189 seater limited to 169 on average on flights we could see as many as 35k passengers per month if 100% of sellable seats sold, that would be 15k more than Aer Lingus do with their little green bird. So if it is only Gatwick route, it is a bit of a damp squib. Though we might get some surprises thrown in. And the unlikely but possible use of the 737-700 (EI-SEV) on the Belfast City Airport could really change things....

[shuttle4zulu]

Re the BHD/BFS debate

Heres how I see it, Joseph Public will go where the cheap flights go.

Saving a tenner on the fare will be the straw that breaks the camels back regardless if means that you actually pay more to get to your departure point, we just see the £19.99 flashing up on the screen and we are sold.

You won't be thinking what if it's a howler on the return flight and you can't get into Sydenham, you won't be thinking that's an extra ten miles up to Aldergrove, you got a bargain fare and, well, "you're so money supermarket"

For me its simple, and to be honest I do have a slight allegiance to AA here, I don't really care about distance, facilities or the cost of car parking.

What I do care about is I've been up from 4, spent the day listening to 99% rubbish, negotiated traffic, car hire return, and most importantly I want to get back from where I came, get in my car and go home.

One piece of concrete has never let me down.

[True Blue]

If I worked for Bfs, I would be making a really interesting offer to Flybe, especially for the routes where there is no competition. I would also be talking to BA. And I would make the offer so attractive that for Bhd to match/better it, it would almost put their lights out. Bhd would have to match or better it to retain the traffic, what has Bfs to lose, they don't have that traffic anyway. Bfs could damage Bhd badly without damaging themselves.


All very stupid, but very stupid is where we have got ourselves with a very silly and short sighted aviation policy.


TB

[ILS25]

Agreed TB. I do believe that BFS are going to get more aggressive in their plight for more traffic (stealing existing from the competition and also new business). And you are right, they have nothing to lose especially with the blatantly obvious outside support that BHD seem to get, maybe aggressiveness is the only way to win.

[GAZMO]

Thought today was the big FR announcement? Any rumours from posters?

[cuthere]

OwenC. I read your report of your flight with Aer Lingus. When I was at university we used to get hammered for grammatical and spelling errors. How after all could we write authoratively on the subject (see today's post at 10.30 for an example of incoherent drivel) we were studying? I think you should be concentrating on that rather than worrying about the opinions of people on here.

Regarding FR. I'm sure they're itching to expand in NI. After screwing LDY (build a runway extension and we'll expand.....honest), I don't see how they'd instead go to BHD or BFS. The former has a shorter runway than LDY; the latter has EZY. So FR can either operate with restrictions, or go to an airport where they'll be competing directly with EZY. Unlike at DUB where FR destroyed EZY's attempts at getting into the Irish market, I cannot see EZY succumbing at BFS, nor transferring to BHD in a sulk.

I could be utterly wrong, but any major announcement from FR is, in my opinion, very unlikely.

[cuthere]

I have a BSc and MSc. You still need to be able to deploy the English language. Were all your GCSEs and A-Levels science-based too? You're not covering yourself in glory on here recently, which is a shame as some of your early posts were well worth a read.

[BFS BHD]

Just out of interest as BFS always been on the drop down list on Adria Airways website?

[GAZMO]

Maybe a new route? Any destinations on the menu?

[gopaisleygo]

children, play nice!! bit boring, this being an airline / airport forum, not a school playgroud with some willy wagging!!

[Cozy F]

The Ryanair will they / won't they is an interesting one alright and I think cuthere might be near the mark.

I think at some point FR were bound to get onto the Belfast - London channel, tho logic might have suggested most likely from STN, as with the major Scottish routes, but this BA / EI takeover and slot process has intervened. If Ryan have the slots you'd think they'll have to launch Belfast Gatwick and it probably depends what their forward thinking is as to whether they choose BFS or go back into BHD.

Suspect it might well be a slow spool - perhaps only the one route to begin with to see how things shape up. But they do have a lot of aircraft on order and as a side point it sure won't have escaped their attention that having presence in BFS gives them a limited control valve on DUB which they don't have at the moment!

[panpanpanpan]

Am I having a senior moment or has this thread been moderated rather heavily? Looks like the Prune police have been called and have been busy! Either that or a few Walter Mitty types have decided to delete the incriminating evidence that was exposing their real persona....:=

At a risk of repeating myself, I would again say - not one poster on here knows for definite the plans of senior airline managers of any potential airline operating to either Aldergrove or Harbour.:suspect:

[benjyyy]

Of course not - is that not the whole point of a rumour forum though?

If you were having a senior moment that makes a pleasant change from several rather immature moments you've been having recently with the utterly childless nature of your posts. Even owenc has clearly decided to take the high road in response to, what I can only describe as, bullying from people who should be above that. If he does in fact spend more than a financially responsible % of his salary/savings on air travel, so what? It's his hobby and people generally spend more than a sensible amount of their hobbies. Nice change from 19 year olds who spend practically all their money on leasing the newest VW Golf or souping up a 1996 Vauxhall Nova. How about you drop the snide remarks and treat people with some respect!

[panpanpanpan]

Benjyyy, respect is earned, it is not a right. As I said in a previous post before the mods arrived and got stuck in with the delete button, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck then theres a fair chance it is a duck! Owenc, in my humble opinion, is probably a spotter pretending to be a high flying business type. Is there anything intrinsically wrong with that? Not really, nobody is being harmed BUT personally I don't suffer fools. The review that he posted using frostyj was lamentable, it read as a Primary 7 childs report on a trip but still he persists he is globetrotting using business class on his many travels.:hmm:

If my humour comes across as immature and childish to you then thats too bad, I (respectfully) suggest you pop down to B&Q and get yourself a large ladder and climb down from that high horse you're on.;)

Now back to the thread, whatever happened to those announcements that were happening some 48 hours ago?:confused:

[canberra97]

Owenc

So your studying Science at University, the other day you were telling everyone on here about owning your own business and spending £3000 this year on personal business trips! :=

[West Brit]

Singling out people and cross examining them in the way that is going on here could be seen by the authorities as bullying. This behaviour IMO is an absolute disgrace. Whether it be grammar or age, folk who comment on other posters in the way that they are is very negative and they should know better.

[cuthere]

Westbrit, would that be the same authorities who posted this thread?:
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/192576-forum-sops-please-read-updated-29th-october-2013-a.html

Post 19 in that is worth a read, and perhaps should be compulsory reading for some on this thread in particular. I assume it's something that passed you by.

As for singling out individuals. If someone goes out of their way to boast about their travels, then direct other readers to pieces they've written (terribly) on other forums, they set themselves up as recipients of a critique of both them and their posts. I totally agree that bullying should not be tolerated, but I don't see my criticisms as bullying.

Back on topic: I assume FR to BFS/BHD was cobblers?

[panpanpanpan]

Anyone else for the Outrage Bus? It's leaving soon from any of the Norn Iron airports!:ugh:

To get back on topic, it does look like the rumours were a load of bolleaux. Pity in a way, it would certainly have given a bit of credibility to this site as a source of information rather than a spotters fantasy musings.

Now I'm off to book my business class ticket around the world, if only there was someone who could give me some advice....:E

[BFS BHD]

Back on topic: I assume FR to BFS/BHD was cobblers?

Nope, I hear they are still coming. Just that wasn't the press release date the other day. Expect it in a few weeks. They seem to of definitely got the slots.

[cuthere]

Are we any clearer as to which airport they intend flying?

[BFS BHD]

Nope have to wait and see. :ok:

[ILS25]

Nope have to wait and see. :ok:

Still in talks I've been told. No decision has been made as yet.

[BFS BHD]

Yea I heard that too. But BFS is meant to be in more advanced talks than BHD, but then KLM was meant to be in more advanced talks at BFS than BHD and look how that went!! So could definitely go anyway still. :)

[BFS Dude]

is it true there is a route announcement due in the next few weeks

[eastern wiseguy]

Still waiting to exhale...:hmm::hmm:

[GAZMO]

Ah well keep the rumours coming.
Unless anybody is in the know and going by last weeks posts I doubt it, we will have to wait and see
Maybe Qatar......

[Mattym1991]

Some of you may already know that the Lanzarote will finish in May 2016 and return for the winter, there will be a new route to cover this and rumours are that this will be somewere in Greece ;) watch this space

[AIRPORT66]

Its a pity that it is not operating all year round ,because it has done very well and it didn't affect the loads on Thomascook or Jet2.

[BFS BHD]

Athens would be good but more than likely Corfu, Rhodes or Heraklion.

Could they not of give Lanzarote a go for Summer? People have been waiting for them to put it on sale.

[West Brit]

So all these rumours are going to manifest in what EZY are going to do with a plane sitting around for a couple of hours per week. Is that where we are here in Belfast!!!
I think EZY could and should deploy an extra aircraft to tidy up their summer program- their current domestic schedule would work well all year.
Have Rome / Prague gone for next summer with relation to LS? (city breaks don't need to be put on early I suppose!!)
It is getting windy out there, if I was flying from Dublin in the near future I would be getting nervous, will this catch on and put people off using Dublin?

[GAZMO]

cannot see that many people being put off by a little gale from time to time!!


Anyone know why KEF cancelled today? Maybe the wind is blowing in the wrong direction in KEF

[cuthere]

Keflavik has two perpendicular, and rather long runways. Wind would rarely close the place.

However, their TAF suggests gusts of 60-70KT and heavy snow from later this afternoon. Maybe EasyJet didn't fancy trying to get in in those conditions. Full on blizzard.

[aceplanes]

Shame to see Easyjet not doing Lanzarote for the summer, it was always a good route for Aer Lingus before they moved to BHD.
I meet plenty of people not only who have used the new EZY service but also
routed via MAN/LGW to/from ACE as no flights possible (or crazy fares) so certain there is unfilled demand.

[GAZMO]

Notice EZY putting flight on tomorrow to KEF hopefully blizzards will have subsided by then

[True Blue]

I would prefer to see an operator with several flights a day, rather than some route with 1 or 2 departures a week.

[GAZMO]

From IOM source possible BFS to IOM route with EZY?

EasyJet: We want to improve punctuality - Isle of Man Today (http://www.iomtoday.co.im/news/isle-of-man-news/easyjet-we-want-to-improve-punctuality-1-7605080)

[EI-BUD]

Belfast IOM has historically been a busy and popular route. It's also a very short sector that could be fitted into with minimal time demand on an ac, and if IOM BRS worked for easyJet, no reason Belfast wouldn't, though best case scenario if at all is summer seasonal, just like Jersey...

[speedrestriction]

.. has two perpendicular, and rather long runways. Wind would rarely close the place.

However, their TAF suggests gusts of 60-70KT and heavy snow from later this afternoon.

The problems arise as soon as runways become contaminated - the crosswind limit for most aircraft reduces dramatically. It obviously depends on the aircraft type and contaminant involved but crosswind limit reductions of 50%+ are by no means unusual so with a forecast of 60-70kts it only takes a difference of 20 degrees between runway heading and wind direction to get a crosswind in excess of 20kts.