Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Not how it works. Look at other joint ventures. Even a minor partner can own critical IP that controls how the bit of kit gets used. Daft example, but the UK nuclear deterrent wasn't wholly under UK control. There was a lot of US IP in most of the weapons that meant the US called the shots on what the UK could or could not do.
We are seeing Germany refusing to allow other countries send their Leopards to Ukraine. What's to stop Germany refusing to allow the UK to send any kit with a German IP turret somewhere it doesn't want to?
(Oberndorf, I believe).
We are seeing Germany refusing to allow other countries send their Leopards to Ukraine. What's to stop Germany refusing to allow the UK to send any kit with a German IP turret somewhere it doesn't want to?
(Oberndorf, I believe).
F16's seen as being of little importance ?
It puzzles me somewhat that the agreed supply of F16's from NL is being noted with a sort of "yeah, ok" and nothing more. I would have thought this significantly more important than the tank question.
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Curious: do you think there is the required political will amongst the Western allies to support UKR re-taking Crimea?
I mean "we" effectively turned a blind eye for 8yrs, so what's the political calculus that justifies a roll-back on this stance? And will it wash with the electorate who may settle for a de-minimis "victory" of pre- Feb 2022 borders?
Given the gyrations of the French and Germans governments to do the minimum possible, I have serious reservations that re-taking Crimea will get the support needed.
I mean "we" effectively turned a blind eye for 8yrs, so what's the political calculus that justifies a roll-back on this stance? And will it wash with the electorate who may settle for a de-minimis "victory" of pre- Feb 2022 borders?
Given the gyrations of the French and Germans governments to do the minimum possible, I have serious reservations that re-taking Crimea will get the support needed.
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Curious: do you think there is the required political will amongst the Western allies to support UKR re-taking Crimea?
I mean "we" effectively turned a blind eye for 8yrs, so what's the political calculus that justifies a roll-back on this stance? And will it wash with the electorate who may settle for a de-minimis "victory" of pre- Feb 2022 borders?
Given the gyrations of the French and Germans governments to do the minimum possible, I have serious reservations that re-taking Crimea will get the support needed.
I mean "we" effectively turned a blind eye for 8yrs, so what's the political calculus that justifies a roll-back on this stance? And will it wash with the electorate who may settle for a de-minimis "victory" of pre- Feb 2022 borders?
Given the gyrations of the French and Germans governments to do the minimum possible, I have serious reservations that re-taking Crimea will get the support needed.
The problem with the Pre Feb 2022 borders is Ukraines Oil, Gas and mineral wealth is in those areas you describe along with the offshore fields. Why would Ukraine ever agree to give those up along with their lands, especially after the cost in Ukrainian lives in the likes of Mariupol.
Realistically, how long can UKR withstand RU? Even with all the Western support it can get and a kill ratio of 3:1 (which I reckon is too optimistic) I am afraid RU will wear down UKR eventually. Maybe not this year or even next year. UKR is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to manpower. What must happen to give UKR the edge it needs to defeat RU?
Imho, RU aggression will not end by outside pressure. No matter how horrific its own losses. Vlad will just keep going unless he is stopped by internal pressure which isn't seen anywhere at this stage.
Imho, RU aggression will not end by outside pressure. No matter how horrific its own losses. Vlad will just keep going unless he is stopped by internal pressure which isn't seen anywhere at this stage.
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Another option is a obviously a negotiated settlement ... that isn't a Russian ruse to pause and rebuild. For a good-faith negotiation the core demands of one side have to materially change. Current prospects for that seem rather thin. Unless ....
.... there is a Russian implosion; social and/or economic, and with the "consent" of Putin's associate, who see more to gain from letting it pan-out than trying to stop it.
This last option is - IMHO - the most likely end to the conflict, as it could meet the pre-conditions for that negotiated settlement mentioned above, depending on what the immediate post-Putin Russia looks like. Whether this could lead to Crimea returning to Ukranian control I have no idea. I do however think that lasting peace will only come with some security guarantees for Ukraine, if not NATO membership. But as always, trying to foresee politically driven decisions is a fools errand...
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USA is offering tanks from their stocks to those countries willing to free the Leopards.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...DTzeSKmfEsAAAA
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...DTzeSKmfEsAAAA
From the artocle:
<Dann kam der russische Überfall auf die Ukraine, und plötzlich erkannten nicht nur die deutsche Bundeswehr, sondern auch andere westliche Streitkräfte, dass sie ihre Kapazitäten zu stark abgebaut hatten. Wenn sie ihre ohnehin zu wenigen Kampfpanzer nun an die Ukraine abgeben sollen, brauchen sie Ersatz. Nicht irgendwann, bis die deutsche Panzerindustrie liefern kann, sondern sofort. Niemand will blank dastehen, wie es der deutsche Heeresinspekteur bei Kriegsausbruch am 24. Februar 2022 für die Bundeswehr beklagte.
Die Wahl eines Panzermodells ist eine langfristige Bindung. Die Ausbildung und das Training der Soldaten, die Infrastruktur für Wartung und Reparatur, die Versorgung mit Ersatzteilen – das alles lässt sich nicht von heute auf morgen von einem Panzertyp auf den anderen umstellen. Wer einmal im Geschäft ist, bleibt auf Jahrzehnte. Im Umkehrschluss: Wer einmal aus dem Geschäft ist, bleibt für lange Zeit draussen.. >
<Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and suddenly not only the German Bundeswehr but also other Western armed forces realized that they had reduced their capacities too much. If they are now to hand over their already too few battle tanks to Ukraine, they need replacements. Not at some point until the German tank industry can deliver, but immediately. No one wants to be left empty-handed, as the German Army Inspector lamented for the Bundeswehr when war broke out on February 24, 2022.
The choice of a tank model is a long-term commitment. The education and training of soldiers, the infrastructure for maintenance and repair, the supply of spare parts - all this cannot be switched from one type of tank to another overnight. Once you're in the business, you stay in it for decades. Conversely: Once you're out of business, you stay out for a long time....>
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Die Wahl eines Panzermodells ist eine langfristige Bindung. Die Ausbildung und das Training der Soldaten, die Infrastruktur für Wartung und Reparatur, die Versorgung mit Ersatzteilen – das alles lässt sich nicht von heute auf morgen von einem Panzertyp auf den anderen umstellen. Wer einmal im Geschäft ist, bleibt auf Jahrzehnte. Im Umkehrschluss: Wer einmal aus dem Geschäft ist, bleibt für lange Zeit draussen.. >
<Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and suddenly not only the German Bundeswehr but also other Western armed forces realized that they had reduced their capacities too much. If they are now to hand over their already too few battle tanks to Ukraine, they need replacements. Not at some point until the German tank industry can deliver, but immediately. No one wants to be left empty-handed, as the German Army Inspector lamented for the Bundeswehr when war broke out on February 24, 2022.
The choice of a tank model is a long-term commitment. The education and training of soldiers, the infrastructure for maintenance and repair, the supply of spare parts - all this cannot be switched from one type of tank to another overnight. Once you're in the business, you stay in it for decades. Conversely: Once you're out of business, you stay out for a long time....>
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Last edited by henra; 23rd Jan 2023 at 17:11.
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The article highlights one thing which does maybe not really help pushing Scholz to deliver the tanks. Industry representatives are concerned that the prospect of them being replaced with Abrams means that KMW/Rheinmetall and their products will be driven out of these countries with little hope to keep the foothold in these markets for future tank sales once the Countries have switched Training, Maintenenance and Spare Parts stocks to the US model.. So agreeing to give away the Leopards damages the German Arms manufacturers. That said, not letting them giving them away will also hurt them. Between a Rock and a hard place. It's a kind of a poisoned offering (not giving them to Ukraine, but readily giving them to Finland, Poland, Spain) and may explain somewhat heated discussions. Still doesn't excuse the blocking by Scholz. But might rather contribute than discourage him from blocking.
From the artocle:
In the bigger scheme of things this is still very short sighted. The damage regarding the reputation being done now is much bigger than maybe buying in future more Leo3 than the bare minimum needed (1000 instead of 300) and then giving them to other Countries for competitive prices. With a higher production volume the manufacturers could set up much more efficient serial production instead of the individual manufactory work they are created in today. The Leopard 2 being used across Europe almost all are built based on the Chassis of the 2125 Leopard 2 once built for the German Army in series production back in the day.
From the artocle:
In the bigger scheme of things this is still very short sighted. The damage regarding the reputation being done now is much bigger than maybe buying in future more Leo3 than the bare minimum needed (1000 instead of 300) and then giving them to other Countries for competitive prices. With a higher production volume the manufacturers could set up much more efficient serial production instead of the individual manufactory work they are created in today. The Leopard 2 being used across Europe almost all are built based on the Chassis of the 2125 Leopard 2 once built for the German Army in series production back in the day.
The Russians see Sevastopol as theirs and have a large Naval contingent there.
It would be very very difficult for Ukraine to capture unless there is a Russian capitulation along the who front which seems unlikely unless there is the removal of Putin and his pals.
The bigger concern would be the tactical use of a bucket of sunshine as a warning.
If Sevastopol is in imminent danger of falling then the Russians would likely have been pushed back over the border along the front, and without knowing the full US ultimatum, (most likely they will only attack Russian positions in Ukraine), then the Russians have less to loose and are safe over the border.
Putting the UN in there may help a little, but I suspect very few countries will agree to send peacekeepers and it will turn into a counter insurgency mess.
It would be very very difficult for Ukraine to capture unless there is a Russian capitulation along the who front which seems unlikely unless there is the removal of Putin and his pals.
The bigger concern would be the tactical use of a bucket of sunshine as a warning.
If Sevastopol is in imminent danger of falling then the Russians would likely have been pushed back over the border along the front, and without knowing the full US ultimatum, (most likely they will only attack Russian positions in Ukraine), then the Russians have less to loose and are safe over the border.
Putting the UN in there may help a little, but I suspect very few countries will agree to send peacekeepers and it will turn into a counter insurgency mess.
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The Russians see Sevastopol as theirs and have a large Naval contingent there.
It would be very very difficult for Ukraine to capture unless there is a Russian capitulation along the who front which seems unlikely unless there is the removal of Putin and his pals.
The bigger concern would be the tactical use of a bucket of sunshine as a warning.
If Sevastopol is in imminent danger of falling then the Russians would likely have been pushed back over the border along the front, and without knowing the full US ultimatum, (most likely they will only attack Russian positions in Ukraine), then the Russians have less to loose and are safe over the border.
Putting the UN in there may help a little, but I suspect very few countries will agree to send peacekeepers and it will turn into a counter insurgency mess.
It would be very very difficult for Ukraine to capture unless there is a Russian capitulation along the who front which seems unlikely unless there is the removal of Putin and his pals.
The bigger concern would be the tactical use of a bucket of sunshine as a warning.
If Sevastopol is in imminent danger of falling then the Russians would likely have been pushed back over the border along the front, and without knowing the full US ultimatum, (most likely they will only attack Russian positions in Ukraine), then the Russians have less to loose and are safe over the border.
Putting the UN in there may help a little, but I suspect very few countries will agree to send peacekeepers and it will turn into a counter insurgency mess.
There is only one aggressor in this war and it is Russia.
There is only one country that has invaded and occupied the soil of internationally recognised, sovereign country. That invader is Russia.
Crimea is Ukraine.
If Russia by some chance is announced the winner and Crimea (or any part of Ukraine) recognized as part of Russia, the WW3 is much closer than it will ever be in the case of Ukraine getting to rule its own territory. Russian ambitions do not restrict to Ukraine, just hear what all the former Warsow pact countries have to say and what Russia says of those. What if Russia wins and they start thinking that "wow, all those NATO countries fed Ukraine and still they lost, they must be exhausted by now, now is the time to take the Baltics/Suwalki gap/Poland/Åland islands/Finland/whatever."
What comes to the proposal of replacing Leos with Abrams one to one for countries donating Leos to Ukraine even though Germans wouldn't agree on it: who cares what German arms manufacturers or German government thinks afterwards. The Leos are long gone to Ukraine by then with spares and everything including spare tanks to cannibalize. It's game over for German MBT business at that point once all the customers have turned to something else, and for a reason.
Maybe UK or French MBT business will bloom then, who knows.
There is only one country that has invaded and occupied the soil of internationally recognised, sovereign country. That invader is Russia.
Crimea is Ukraine.
If Russia by some chance is announced the winner and Crimea (or any part of Ukraine) recognized as part of Russia, the WW3 is much closer than it will ever be in the case of Ukraine getting to rule its own territory. Russian ambitions do not restrict to Ukraine, just hear what all the former Warsow pact countries have to say and what Russia says of those. What if Russia wins and they start thinking that "wow, all those NATO countries fed Ukraine and still they lost, they must be exhausted by now, now is the time to take the Baltics/Suwalki gap/Poland/Åland islands/Finland/whatever."
What comes to the proposal of replacing Leos with Abrams one to one for countries donating Leos to Ukraine even though Germans wouldn't agree on it: who cares what German arms manufacturers or German government thinks afterwards. The Leos are long gone to Ukraine by then with spares and everything including spare tanks to cannibalize. It's game over for German MBT business at that point once all the customers have turned to something else, and for a reason.
Maybe UK or French MBT business will bloom then, who knows.
Maybe UK or French MBT business will bloom then, who knows.
Dream on ;-)
Seriously: The French are apparently pondering to get out of MGCS and run Leclerc until they rust away (2060+). UK has largely gotten rid of its own tank manufacturers already.
Next Generation MBT with unmanned turrets currently under actual development are basically MGCS/Leopard 3, Rheinmetall KF51 and Abrams X (leaving Armata aside).
Under actual development with a bigger caliber gun (130 or 140mm, respectively with up to 50% higher muzzle energy) are only Leo3/MGCS and KF51.
Last edited by henra; 23rd Jan 2023 at 20:15.
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I'm not sure the US would be willing to do this. They could probably then wave good bye to their own clauses. Which they consider very important. If Poland does it on their own they might not obect. But to atcively encourage to circumvent these almost holy (to themselves) agreements? I slightly doubt it.
If the west is going to support Ukraine till the end, the MBT's will be needed and if Germans are stubborn something has to be done without them.
And then comes the question of aircrafts as Migs and SU's will need replacement eventually. F16's or some other FJ. What puzzles me is the lack of discussion on that topic though, NL said they'd be happy to provide Vipers, US says why not, end of discussion. What's going on?
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I understand your point, but the longer this current situation goes on the more urgent it will be to provide UKR western MBT's, and the best option in numbers is Leo due to training/spares/logistics (and the turbine engine dispute).
If the west is going to support Ukraine till the end, the MBT's will be needed and if Germans are stubborn something has to be done without them.
And then comes the question of aircrafts as Migs and SU's will need replacement eventually. F16's or some other FJ. What puzzles me is the lack of discussion on that topic though, NL said they'd be happy to provide Vipers, US says why not, end of discussion. What's going on?
If the west is going to support Ukraine till the end, the MBT's will be needed and if Germans are stubborn something has to be done without them.
And then comes the question of aircrafts as Migs and SU's will need replacement eventually. F16's or some other FJ. What puzzles me is the lack of discussion on that topic though, NL said they'd be happy to provide Vipers, US says why not, end of discussion. What's going on?
No chance of UK made MBT, it will be an Abraham or Lep 3, we can’t even make a decent APC given current kit assembly one’s issues .
I think you need to understand German politics more as they are not just sending, or Green lighting 14 old Challengers, the ones being sent are not ones that were going to be upgraded. We are talking about a country that invaded Russia with tanks and many of them. If Germany Green lights the re export of Lep 2 there is a potential for many tanks again rolling on the Steppes. If you don’t understand the optics of that in Germany or Russia you do not understand the issues at play.
I am pretty sure Germany will be making tanks for quite awhile yet.
Cheers
Mr Mac
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No chance of UK made MBT, it will be an Abraham or Lep 3, we can’t even make a decent APC given current kit assembly one’s issues .
I think you need to understand German politics more as they are not just sending, or Green lighting 14 old Challengers, the ones being sent are not ones that were going to be upgraded. We are talking about a country that invaded Russia with tanks and many of them. If Germany Green lights the re export of Lep 2 there is a potential for many tanks again rolling on the Steppes. If you don’t understand the optics of that in Germany or Russia you do not understand the issues at play.
I am pretty sure Germany will be making tanks for quite awhile yet.
Cheers
Mr Mac
No chance of UK made MBT, it will be an Abraham or Lep 3, we can’t even make a decent APC given current kit assembly one’s issues .
I think you need to understand German politics more as they are not just sending, or Green lighting 14 old Challengers, the ones being sent are not ones that were going to be upgraded. We are talking about a country that invaded Russia with tanks and many of them. If Germany Green lights the re export of Lep 2 there is a potential for many tanks again rolling on the Steppes. If you don’t understand the optics of that in Germany or Russia you do not understand the issues at play.
I am pretty sure Germany will be making tanks for quite awhile yet.
Cheers
Mr Mac
Germany already sent Marders and no one bats an eye. Putin couldn't care less which MBT's are fielded, they are still fighting NATO and nazis in their propaganda.
Germany isn't the one Russkies are picking in their propaganda but the US. They want to be amongst the big guys, China and US. They don't compare themselves to any old "US lapdog", it doesn't fit the great Russian Mir thinking.
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We are talking about a country that invaded Russia with tanks and many of them. If Germany Green lights the re export of Lep 2 there is a potential for many tanks again rolling on the Steppes.
How long ago (a clue, it's rather more recently) since Russia/the USSR murdered Hungarian and Czech civilians who wanted minor changes towards a more democratic form of government?
Who (except in Putin's perverted mind and propaganda) believes there is the slightest potential for European tanks rolling across the steppes?
I know there can be more than one point of view, but to be respected a point of view needs some basis in reality.
Last edited by Fitter2; 23rd Jan 2023 at 22:43.
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Crikey.. I wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of that lot.