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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Jan 2023, 23:41
  #13821 (permalink)  
 
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Someone needs to call Germany out.

Who’s side are they on?
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Old 22nd Jan 2023, 23:53
  #13822 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Professor Plum
Someone needs to call Germany out.

Who’s side are they on?
Germany's.
The stink will hang around for a long time.
Macron is keeping a low profile, very wise
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 00:19
  #13823 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Herod
In the clip of Boris, post 13796, isn't the Union Flag upside-down? That used to be a signal for distress I believe.
If Ukraine is not in distress now, I don't know what distress is! The Union Flag seems to be appropriately flown.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 00:34
  #13824 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure what to make of this - the headline is not completely supported by the body of the article:
In breakthrough, minister says Germany won't block Poland from giving Ukraine tanks - MarketWatch

The issue appeared to move close to a resolution late Sunday when Germany’s top diplomat said her country would not object if Poland decided to send some of its Leopards to Ukraine.
​​​​​​​Not exactly definitive, although a move in the right direction.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 05:43
  #13825 (permalink)  
 
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Reminds me of the new paperback, "Tanks for Ukraine", by Hugo First.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 07:11
  #13826 (permalink)  
 
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Nightmare fuel

Anyone else have these lol, in a car usually....parachutist etc .. suppose a tanks worse.
they surely knew they were de-electrified before touching the cables, which you can see eventually.

reminds me of those choppers supposedly going under them, which i thought was a trick of the perspective....i hope
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 07:30
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Us will agree to other countries providing F16, something I believe the Nederland has said they are willing to do.



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...C4rdOs3u8sAAAA
..
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 07:36
  #13828 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Herod
In the clip of Boris, post 13796, isn't the Union Flag upside-down? That used to be a signal for distress I believe.
Yes, it's upside down. Often seen in that "flag-on-a-stick" configuration.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 08:30
  #13829 (permalink)  
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Hilarious. Russian volunteer in "LPR" Murz explains how expensive Russian EW works. It's put in the rears to avoid destruction by artillery and... you guessed it, it jams own Russian equipment. And no one does anything about it because "orders"….
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 08:44
  #13830 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Germany's.
Not really. Scholz is doing Germany a huge dis-service of which it will not benefit at all.
Macron is keeping a low profile, very wise
He's a pro.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 09:10
  #13831 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Thatcherite selling off our expertise for next to nothing, is going to seriously bite us in the bum. From Agrajag

Not just in this field either. The family Silver was sold off then and has kept being so. Politics drove construction of two new aircraft carriers and I leave it to those who know a lot more than me to judge if that was the right priority. Frankly I doubt it
Remind me which expertise Thatcher "sold off"? Or are you thinking of the privatisation of DERA in 2000? Which flavour of government was it at the time?

Politics had nothing to do with the construction of the two carriers - the requirement for which was endorsed by a joint committee - despite the best efforts of a cadre of pongoes to wrongly suggest it was all to keep Gordon Brown happy.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 09:32
  #13832 (permalink)  
 
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Realistically, how long can UKR withstand RU? Even with all the Western support it can get and a kill ratio of 3:1 (which I reckon is too optimistic) I am afraid RU will wear down UKR eventually. Maybe not this year or even next year. UKR is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to manpower. What must happen to give UKR the edge it needs to defeat RU?

Imho, RU aggression will not end by outside pressure. No matter how horrific its own losses. Vlad will just keep going unless he is stopped by internal pressure which isn't seen anywhere at this stage.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 09:53
  #13833 (permalink)  
 
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Well, that is the negative projection. By that logic they should just give up. Allow the nasty dog to control the household.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 10:07
  #13834 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Absolutely. Arguably Ukraine would already be lost without his leadership on this.
As a diehard Socialist it pains me to say this but you are right.

One has to wonder why it's the only good thing he has ever managed to do for his entire political career.



​​
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 10:10
  #13835 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wondering
Realistically, how long can UKR withstand RU? Even with all the Western support it can get and a kill ratio of 3:1 (which I reckon is too optimistic) I am afraid RU will wear down UKR eventually.
There is an important difference: Ukraine is defending its Existance. Russia is 'only' trying to expand it's turf. This makes for a significant difference in level of acceptance/motivation in the population. 500k Deaths would be really tragedy for Ukraine but there would be 5 Mio people potentially able to defend the Country. So it wouldn't stop their physical ability to do so. As long as there is the will, there will still be a lot of potential defenders left.
500k Deaths for an adventure in a foreign Country will be difficult for puplic opinion in Russia. There is a reason Putin is still reluctant to go for mobilisation of the Moscovites and St Pete's.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 10:32
  #13836 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Not how it works. Look at other joint ventures. Even a minor partner can own critical IP that controls how the bit of kit gets used. Daft example, but the UK nuclear deterrent wasn't wholly under UK control. There was a lot of US IP in most of the weapons that meant the US called the shots on what the UK could or could not do.

We are seeing Germany refusing to allow other countries send their Leopards to Ukraine. What's to stop Germany refusing to allow the UK to send any kit with a German IP turret somewhere it doesn't want to?

As for moving out of the UK, then there is nothing in law keeping production at Telford. It's there because BAE took over Alvis, and Alvis produced armoured vehicles in Telford. If it is cheaper to manufacture in another country then what's to stop them just shutting up shop? It's happened with small arms. When the small arms ROF got bought by Heckler and Koch UK small arms manufacture moved to Germany (Oberndorf, I believe).
Yes that is a daft example. The US has no operational control over the UK nuclear deterrent. It might have considerable industrial leverage but that is a very different thing indeed. And the relevant calculation - which is a very real consideration - becomes "how long to regenerate that industrial capability" in the event of a breakdown in relationships. Whether the UK (or indeed any other nation) gets those calculations right is debatable, especially as the minimum economic scale required to deliver the full range of security/defence solutions is nigh-on global in scale. It is certainly at least one continent's worth of economy, hence any nonsense about strategic autonomy has to be heavily qualified. I suspect that after the dust has settled re Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that a lot of countries will be revisiting those calculations.

In respect of the Challenger 3 upgrade what none of us know - or at least none of us who do know can disclose - is what confidential arrangements are in place to ensure that the necessary minimum design team, industrial capability, through life support, and contractual autonomy are in place. It might be that none of that is in place, in which case potentially the German government might have an arms control 'lock' on the Ch3 turret. However it might be that all those are in place - including confidential government-to-government arrangements - in which case there can never be a question of a German 'lock'. We simply don't know, but what we do know is that it is not as simplistic as some assume.

This river flows in many directions. As an example the Argentine efforts to re-equip their air force have frequently foundered because the relevant aircraft that they coveted included UK owned IP, most often the ejector seats.


================


The data that became available a few months ago revealed that the KIA ratio for personnel was 6:1 in Ukraine's favour. Given that pre-war population sizes were 3:1 in Russia's favor, but that a lot of the better educated Russian males in-zone for conscription promptly fled the country, these staggering ongoing loss-rates appear simply unsustainable for Russia. By late 2022 it seems about 900,000 Russians had fled Russia (see link below, it is likely over 1m now) and the vast majority of those appear to be male. In contrast Ukraine appears to have very little equivalent thinning out of its corresponding pool. Personally I hope that we in the broader Western alliance give Ukraine all that is necessary for them to promptly clear the Russian invasion out of their territory at minimum further loss of Ukrainian life; and that the West retains its strategic patience through this effort and beyond.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...ion_of_Ukraine

"Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than 300,000 Russian citizens and residents are estimated to have left Russia by mid-March 2022, at least 500,000 by the end of August 2022, and an additional 400,000[1] by early October, for a total of approximately 900,000. This number includes economic migrants, conscientious objectors, and some political refugees"

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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 10:38
  #13837 (permalink)  
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Allied estimates now putting Russian loses at around 188,000 - and that may exclude those of the Wagner group.

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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 10:42
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To me Crimea looks to be the lynch pin, retake Crimea and destroy the bridge, Russia then loses the ability to attack and resupply from that direction, they also lose the port facilities, once that area is secured then the rest of the frontline becomes more managable, there are few supply lines in from mainland Russia so once they are removed from the equation Russia will be struggling to hold anything and the coast line areas will be restored.
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 11:02
  #13839 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
Yes that is a daft example. The US has no operational control over the UK nuclear deterrent. It might have considerable industrial leverage but that is a very different thing indeed. And the relevant calculation - which is a very real consideration - becomes "how long to regenerate that industrial capability" in the event of a breakdown in relationships. Whether the UK (or indeed any other nation) gets those calculations right is debatable, especially as the minimum economic scale required to deliver the full range of security/defence solutions is nigh-on global in scale. It is certainly at least one continent's worth of economy, hence any nonsense about strategic autonomy has to be heavily qualified. I suspect that after the dust has settled re Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that a lot of countries will be revisiting those calculations.

In respect of the Challenger 3 upgrade what none of us know - or at least none of us who do know can disclose - is what confidential arrangements are in place to ensure that the necessary minimum design team, industrial capability, through life support, and contractual autonomy are in place. It might be that none of that is in place, in which case potentially the German government might have an arms control 'lock' on the Ch3 turret. However it might be that all those are in place - including confidential government-to-government arrangements - in which case there can never be a question of a German 'lock'. We simply don't know, but what we do know is that it is not as simplistic as some assume.

This river flows in many directions. As an example the Argentine efforts to re-equip their air force have frequently foundered because the relevant aircraft that they coveted included UK owned IP, most often the ejector seats.


================


The data that became available a few months ago revealed that the KIA ratio for personnel was 6:1 in Ukraine's favour. Given that pre-war population sizes were 3:1 in Russia's favor, but that a lot of the better educated Russian males in-zone for conscription promptly fled the country, these staggering ongoing loss-rates appear simply unsustainable for Russia. By late 2022 it seems about 900,000 Russians had fled Russia (see link below, it is likely over 1m now) and the vast majority of those appear to be male. In contrast Ukraine appears to have very little equivalent thinning out of its corresponding pool. Personally I hope that we in the broader Western alliance give Ukraine all that is necessary for them to promptly clear the Russian invasion out of their territory at minimum further loss of Ukrainian life; and that the West retains its strategic patience through this effort and beyond.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...ion_of_Ukraine

"Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than 300,000 Russian citizens and residents are estimated to have left Russia by mid-March 2022, at least 500,000 by the end of August 2022, and an additional 400,000[1] by early October, for a total of approximately 900,000. This number includes economic migrants, conscientious objectors, and some political refugees"

Surly, someone soon, must tap Putin on the shoulder and say…. This is not going very well??

Or am I being foolish in thinking that.??
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 11:46
  #13840 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
To me Crimea looks to be the lynch pin, retake Crimea and destroy the bridge, Russia then loses the ability to attack and resupply from that direction, they also lose the port facilities, once that area is secured then the rest of the frontline becomes more managable, there are few supply lines in from mainland Russia so once they are removed from the equation Russia will be struggling to hold anything and the coast line areas will be restored.
Curious: do you think there is the required political will amongst the Western allies to support UKR re-taking Crimea?
I mean "we" effectively turned a blind eye for 8yrs, so what's the political calculus that justifies a roll-back on this stance? And will it wash with the electorate who may settle for a de-minimis "victory" of pre- Feb 2022 borders?

Given the gyrations of the French and Germans governments to do the minimum possible, I have serious reservations that re-taking Crimea will get the support needed.
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