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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 23rd Jan 2023, 22:41
  #13861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wondering
Realistically, how long can UKR withstand RU? Even with all the Western support it can get and a kill ratio of 3:1 (which I reckon is too optimistic) I am afraid RU will wear down UKR eventually. Maybe not this year or even next year. UKR is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to manpower. What must happen to give UKR the edge it needs to defeat RU?

Imho, RU aggression will not end by outside pressure. No matter how horrific its own losses. Vlad will just keep going unless he is stopped by internal pressure which isn't seen anywhere at this stage.
I agree with all of this, and will add that if the Ukrainian army ever breaks, putting it back together again will be impossible.
I see western leaders holding back as playing a dangerous game.

Whatever the US reasoning behind not sending any of its 2,000 tanks that are in storage (40°12'9.01"N 120° 8'54.50"W) the Biden administration and the DoD is playing cheapskate with the Bradleys too. Ukraine should be getting 500 Bradleys along with 500 MBTs, (and everything else that's been pledged).

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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 22:59
  #13862 (permalink)  
 
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Jordan Challenger Mk 1

...
While we're on the subject, is there any realisable value of any kind, to anyone, short or long term, in the 400 odd Challenger Mk. 1 tanks and associated stuff (eg. 120mm rifled ammo) apparently being retired by Jordan ? Some of them should be fairly serviceable. Four tank battalions worth being replaced by Leclercs.

Who would likely have disposal rights for all that heavy metal ?
This from a week ago - might be behind their paywall but it was osint on gurgle. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...s-wrong-tanks/


Haven't seen it mentioned here or JB yet, so apols if I missed.

LFH
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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 23:14
  #13863 (permalink)  
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Latvia and Estonia today announced they are expelling their Russian ambassadors….

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Old 23rd Jan 2023, 23:28
  #13864 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Latvia and Estonia today announced they are expelling their Russian ambassadors….
Estonia was tit for tat as russia expelled estonian ambassador
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 05:06
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Originally Posted by Lordflasheart
...
While we're on the subject, is there any realisable value of any kind, to anyone, short or long term, in the 400 odd Challenger Mk. 1 tanks and associated stuff (eg. 120mm rifled ammo) apparently being retired by Jordan ? Some of them should be fairly serviceable. Four tank battalions worth being replaced by Leclercs.

Who would likely have disposal rights for all that heavy metal ?
This from a week ago - might be behind their paywall but it was osint on gurgle. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...s-wrong-tanks/


Haven't seen it mentioned here or JB yet, so apols if I missed.

LFH
I suppose support and logistics would be the issue as only one having those is Jordan.
Who would train the UKR? What happens when they run out of Challengers, not due to combat losses necessarily but due to lack of spares? Another training round to Leos/Abrams? In what condition those Challys are, Ihave no idea but have they realy kept those in good fightimg order?

Doable I suppose but would be better idea to go for Leos for many reasons.
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 06:38
  #13866 (permalink)  
 
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Well this is a new one from Lavrov. Haven't heard this one as a reason for the invasion before.


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Old 24th Jan 2023, 07:35
  #13867 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2
How long ago did the 3rd Reich Germany invade the USSR (including Ukraine), and did far fewer rapes and murders in Ukraine than the USSR when they came back the other way?

How long ago (a clue, it's rather more recently) since Russia/the USSR murdered Hungarian and Czech civilians who wanted minor changes towards a more democratic form of government?

Who (except in Putin's perverted mind and propaganda) believes there is the slightest potential for European tanks rolling across the steppes?

I know there can be more than one point of view, but to be respected a point of view needs some basis in reality.
Fitter 2 / Beamer
I am well aware that it would be very easy to just say yes to the Ukrainian request, and indeed the pressure which is undoubtedly being felt by the German Govt or more precisely its chancellor.

However Germany has a coalition government and as is the nature of coalition then all sides of a decision will get discussed sometimes to the nth degree it seems. The debate re Lep 2 has been going on since at least last June here ( I am currently in Germany and actually took part in a demonstration last night to Free the Leopards , my second Demo the first being against Brexit in London ) , so I do agree that they should be sent.

However working and living here part time at least, I am also a tuned to some of the issues with the decision, which do not seem to be reported clearly in UK press. May I suggest watching some DW English language programmes on the issue which may help your understanding from a German viewpoint.

Personally I think you will see a relaxation of the end user rules for re exporting in the not too distant future. As for German stocks I think given the plan to rearm they may well be checking what they need to accomplish that as well. Even though German tank manufacturers are bigger than their UK counterparts, we are not talking car assembly levels of production , closer maybe to a small passenger airliner time scale wise.

Anyway pretty sure some movement will occur relatively quickly.

As for Jordanian challengers it depends on the state they are in much like their UK counterparts. I have already talked of my concerns over such a small deployment of Challenger's and the logistics problems this may have. I hope that the ones we send are not the hangar queens of the British Army, as just like aircraft, there are good and unreliable tanks as well 😉

Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 07:40
  #13868 (permalink)  
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Estonia has made an unprecedented decision: to transfer all their 155 howitzers to Ukraine.

According to Kaimo Kuusk, Ambassador to Ukraine, in this way the country wants to create a precedent that others have no excuse why they cannot provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons.
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 07:56
  #13869 (permalink)  
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As for German stocks I think given the plan to rearm they may well be checking what they need to accomplish that as well.
See NutLoose’s depressing link on the state of the German military.

The true state of play of the German military

​​​​​​​ I hope that the ones we send are not the hangar queens of the British Army
I presume they will be from the NATO war stocks pulled out of storage at Sennelager.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...-train-europe/

https://www.forces.net/operations/ge...ng-sent-poland


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Old 24th Jan 2023, 08:10
  #13870 (permalink)  
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Planted question?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-n...-reach-russia/

UK ‘not ruling out’ giving Ukraine missiles to reach Russia

Britain has “not ruled out” supplying Ukraine with missiles with sufficient range to destroy missile systems in Russia which may be targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.The answer came to light in response to a written question ssked by Lord Blencathra.

“To ask His Majesty’s Government whether they have any plans to supply Ukraine with missiles with sufficient range to destroy missile systems in Russia which may be targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.”

Baroness Goldie, Minister of State for the Ministry of Defence, responded:

“The UK will keep our support to Ukraine under review and has not ruled out the possibility of providing longer range weapons systems to counter Russia’s recent indiscriminate mass targeting of civilian infrastructure.

We have provided Ukraine with military aid on the understanding that it will be used in accordance with international humanitarian law. We liaise on a daily basis with the Ukrainian Government, and they are clear that equipment provided by the UK is intended for the defence of Ukraine.”
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 09:23
  #13871 (permalink)  
 
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Wow




Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Jan 2023 at 09:38.
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 11:01
  #13872 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac

Personally I think you will see a relaxation of the end user rules for re exporting in the not too distant future. As for German stocks I think given the plan to rearm they may well be checking what they need to accomplish that as well. Even though German tank manufacturers are bigger than their UK counterparts, we are not talking car assembly levels of production , closer maybe to a small passenger airliner time scale wise.

Anyway pretty sure some movement will occur relatively quickly.

Cheers
Mr Mac
Thanks for your insight, it is appreciated. If your forecast is spot on, we won't have to speculate furthermore and UKR gets their Leos!
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 11:14
  #13873 (permalink)  
 
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More detail in this thread:


Last edited by Wokkafans; 24th Jan 2023 at 11:27. Reason: Additional info
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 11:29
  #13874 (permalink)  
 
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Poland has requested of Berlin to send 14 Leopards to Ukraine, not a lot, but a start, plus the other countries that are joining in with Poland, the numbers might add up, Germany has available 19 they could send after a survey.


Those hangared Leo 1's haven't moved in a while.


Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Jan 2023 at 11:59. Reason: update
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 11:45
  #13875 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation Content:

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1617575813242818560?cxt=HHwWgMDQmbio5PIsAAAA




Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Jan 2023 at 12:00.
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 12:25
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F-16?

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Old 24th Jan 2023, 12:53
  #13877 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
See NutLoose’s depressing link on the state of the German military.

The true state of play of the German military

I presume they will be from the NATO war stocks pulled out of storage at Sennelager.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...-train-europe/

https://www.forces.net/operations/ge...ng-sent-poland
Orac
The points you made about German preparedness is indeed what I was driving at.

The current German forces are a shadow of those pre unification and the announcement about expansion has forced a look in the cupboard and there is not much there so to speak.

We may now witness possibly akin to what happened post Pearl Harbour and German arms manufacturing goes into a boom period. Many here would hope not, as they preferred life as it was with the hope that Russia would become a more democratic society. That wish has, as we know been rudely shattered, and it now really depends how the Germans react to the change. Knowing them quite well it could go either way but the feeling in the demonstration last night was more we want 8 and we won’t wait for those who remember pre WW1 arms race.

Interesting as always Orac.

Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 12:59
  #13878 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Well this is a new one from Lavrov. Haven't heard this one as a reason for the invasion before.

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/...29411855183875
He needs to up his lithium intake....


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Old 24th Jan 2023, 13:13
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Germany & tanks

The German coalition is split on the subject of tank supply. The Greens & Liberals in favour, Scholz & co divided too but a German MP speaking on BBC radio made it clear that irritating Russia was behind the vacilations and effectively said that not everybody was committed to Ukraine winning. They just want it all to stop. Self interest to the max
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Old 24th Jan 2023, 13:17
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Originally Posted by fdr
He needs to up his lithium intake....
Actually it is probably true but he has a very long memory
https://www.neatorama.com/2019/11/11...ony-in-Crimea/
https://www.caitlingreen.org/2015/05...black-sea.html
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