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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 23rd Feb 2023, 16:47
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Originally Posted by FUMR
If that is true then it will only be a matter of time before Ukraine is defeated.
Why does this change the picture so drastically?! Belarus has a miniscule Army compared to Both Russia and Ukraine. Russia has an Army of ~1,5Mio Soldiers, Belarus <50.000. Any Micro- Mobilisation in Russia will bring more additional Soldiers to the front than what Belarus can contribute. And the territory of Belarus has been used by Russia in this war already 364 days ago. So, why do you inflate Lukashenka to Game Changer status??? If Russian troops want to engage from the North they can do so freely as we write. And have done so in this war. Extensively. They just refrained from it because theiy couldn't sustain so many and so remote fronts.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:16
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UA vs RU artillery ground patterns


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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:27
  #14843 (permalink)  
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The Polish Border Guard has, today, begun reinforcing the border between Poland and Russia. Starting by placing anti-tank barricades at the border checkpoints leading into the Kaliningrad enclave.


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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:29
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Yes they are.
Unlike that fool Wilson, Xi may be clever enough to stay out of it but pick and choose whom he lends money and other aid to.
That's not good for my country, but sitting in China and Looking it out, it might be the best way to play "the long game"
I think Xi switched from playing the long game to more active pushing because China has its own time bombs. And it has a number of those. They have an almost suicidal demografic (especially in the cities among the educated population who almost don't get any Children at all any more - working too much and not being able to afford an Apartment with enough space to raise children + education costs are ruinous). They have a Real Estate bubble the size of a Hydrogen Bomb. And if that bursts it will ruin the whole middle class on which China's success of the last two decades is built
Economic growth during the last years was mostly just real estate bubble further inflating. Manufacturing Industries are leaving China left and right for Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand and India after China's wages have increased drastically in the developed areas (following dramatic real estate price increases). Crass Corona measures and terribly unreliable Supply Chains haven't helped. Having a closer look at China doesn't really paint such a rosy picture as is often portrayed in the Western Media and Politics.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:40
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
China will not want to back a loser so they will be waiting to see who is likely to prevail in Ukraine, but equally I have read a pretty convincing argument that if Russia prevails in Ukraine then it would make the success of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more likely, so perhaps if they think that Russia is getting 'close' then they will provide the necessary support to tip the balance?
I don't know if it is intended or will be purely accidental but more ammo for the Russsian troops will just lengthen the war and lead to more killed Russian Soldiers and destroyed Russian Equipment due to the war simply taking longer. The 'West' will balance out. Ukraine is motivated to fight it out to the end.
Looking at Chinese strategies in general I could even conceive that Xi is playing the very mean game of effectively weakening the Russian Military in the long term so he can take over a bigger chunk of Russia somewhen down the road when Russia has lost the majority of it's Military. It may even be a poisoned gift. China needs Natural Resources. Russia has them.
China has bound Kazakhstan already closer to themselves in the meantime, taking it away from Russia. In my eyes the are playing a game on Russia.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:46
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Originally Posted by henra
Why does this change the picture so drastically?! Belarus has a miniscule Army compared to Both Russia and Ukraine. Russia has an Army of ~1,5Mio Soldiers, Belarus <50.000. Any Micro- Mobilisation in Russia will bring more additional Soldiers to the front than what Belarus can contribute. And the territory of Belarus has been used by Russia in this war already 364 days ago. So, why do you inflate Lukashenka to Game Changer status??? If Russian troops want to engage from the North they can do so freely as we write. And have done so in this war. Extensively. They just refrained from it because theiy couldn't sustain so many and so remote fronts.
Henra, You have me confused. I don't think you and I are talking about the same thing. I was responding to another post and nothing was said about Belarus.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 17:47
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Ooops.

Still, it shows the Ukrainian SAW can see them (IRIS-T?) , even if Russian SAW can’t…

A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UCAV crashed in #Kharkiv Oblast- going by preliminary information, the drone was shot down in a friendly fire incident.

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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 19:11
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Cadets at the Moscow Police College have reported an attempt to forcibly mobilise them en masse under false pretences. They say they were locked in a hall while attempts were made to get them to sign up to join the army.

They had to call the police to be released…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...645015554.html
The problem with such news is verifying its source to be trustworthy. In this case the source was "According to the Russian 'Mobilisation News' Telegram channel" that is likely disinformation and unlikely to even have a grain of truth. Again, not displaying any Pro RF sentiments here, but stuff like this should really be taken for what it is. Mind you the BBC is no better.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 19:29
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Originally Posted by flash8
The problem with such news is verifying its source to be trustworthy. In this case the source was "According to the Russian 'Mobilisation News' Telegram channel" that is likely disinformation and unlikely to even have a grain of truth. Again, not displaying any Pro RF sentiments here, but stuff like this should really be taken for what it is. Mind you the BBC is no better.
True or not, if it encourages further dissent, distrust and paranoia amongst the gangsters who run Russia I'd say that was a worthwhile thing.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 20:45
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
True or not, if it encourages further dissent, distrust and paranoia amongst the gangsters who run Russia I'd say that was a worthwhile thing.
Granted, war propaganda has a purpose. The matter here is whether this forum should relay war propaganda or trustworthy news.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 21:02
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
Granted, war propaganda has a purpose. The matter here is whether this forum should relay war propaganda or trustworthy news.
Please define "trustworthy news" for the benefit of the Forum.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 21:10
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Please define "trustworthy news" for the benefit of the Forum.
Based on many of the last 14,000-odd posts - if it's on Twitter, it can unquestionably be trusted.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 21:27
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
Granted, war propaganda has a purpose. The matter here is whether this forum should relay war propaganda or trustworthy news.
Shades of 'Yes Minister'; is it true that it happened or true that it's propaganda?
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 21:37
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Originally Posted by pasta
When the war's over, they could sell a load to the US, to fill with Helium and use for target practice.
​​​​​​They could sell them to Del Boy. He has some experience in trying to sell inflatables.
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Old 23rd Feb 2023, 23:20
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Based on many of the last 14,000-odd posts - if it's on Twitter, it can unquestionably be trusted.
Agreed. From the New York Times today:
Tensions between Mr. Prigozhin and Russia’s military command have been building for months, getting ever more bitter as Wagner became the central fighting force for the city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s east. Those tensions escalated to a new level on Tuesday, when Mr. Prigozhin, in a series of caustic audio messages, claimed the military command was deliberately withholding supplies to undermine Wagner. The Defense Ministry picked up the gauntlet. In a rare public response that evening, the ministry denied the accusations, and indirectly accused Mr. Prigozhin of aiding the enemy by damaging the unity of Russian forces.

Mr. Prigozhin then escalated the dispute further, calling the ministry’s response “an attempt to hide their crimes.” On Wednesday, he published a graphic video showing rows of dozens of corpses, which he said were Wagner fighters who died because of ammunition shortages. The video could not be independently verified.On Thursday, Mr. Prigozhin lowered the tone as suddenly as he raised it, claiming on Telegram that the problem has been solved.“We were told that the loading of ammunition has begun,” he said, referring to the warehouses. “From the guys, thank you.”
The NYT does allow viewing of several articles per month without paying (I subscribe; it's well worth it).

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/w...n-ukraine.html
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 06:58
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A long (67mins) but thoroughly excellent discussion on the conflict. Excellent insights from Lord George Robertson Former Sec Gen of NATO.
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 11:58
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 12:14
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S’truth that is a depressing assessment. Let us hope the Russians have over estimated their capabilities again.
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 14:08
  #14859 (permalink)  
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The Wagner Group's huge losses and lack of reserves are said to have left it incapable of defending the territory it has captured, presenting a severe risk if Ukraine launches a major counter-offensive. The situation is described as 'desperate'. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...338462722.html
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 14:17
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One reason why I keep banging on about Crimea, the way i see it as a layman would be to take Crimea back, destroy the bridge and you then reduce the Russians ability to resupply their forces, you reduce the front significantly, you can then control parts of the Black Sea and also the Azov Sea thus gaining the possibility of destroying any ship or air launched missiles at source, I.E still in their launchers, It would also relieve the threats to Odesa and Kherson and enable an outflanking maneuver around the Dnipro defences?? while giving a firebase to the Russian bases / stockpiles behind the lines.
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