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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:53
  #13641 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Germany is so reluctant to export armour and weapons to Ukraine?
Is it fear of Russian retaliation, historical precedents, domestic politics, or all three?
From an uninformed point of view it looks disgraceful...
It's called political cowardice.
Despite Russia's abhorrent behaviour Germany still wants to remain cosily and conveniently trading with Russia and fears the consequences both commercially as well as potentially militarily if they piss Russia off.
Basically they just haven't the guts to stand up for what's right. Never let it be said that they haven't got form in that direction...
They'll do it readily enough if big rufty-tufty Uncle Sam shows the way and risks taking the consequences too but alone, no, far too risky.
Estonia and Poland are realistic enough to see that if Putain succeeds in taking Ukraine he'll be emboldended to go further, and top of his shopping list to "recover" into the Russian fold are the Baltic states and the "lost" E European countries. Germany included. The Scandwegian nations too are all too aware of Russia's covertous eye from bitter experience.

Last edited by meleagertoo; 19th Jan 2023 at 11:15.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:03
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Edit: Link posted below. Published May 2022. FWIW its from Deutsche Welle - the German equivalent of the BBC....

I understand that it flies in the face of the narrative most Europeans buy into, but interestingly I read this in an article in a German newspaper sometime in early summer; it suggested some Germans may sympathize with Russia for the historical reasons I mentioned. Its always interesting to read and consider others opinions, even if not aligned with our own views. I will try to dig it up and post the link.

Baltic nations (as mentioned by some) are a different case altogether, for obvious reasons.

Link: What's behind eastern Germans' empathy for Russia?

Last edited by sheikhthecamel; 19th Jan 2023 at 11:25.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:06
  #13643 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​This is one of the most important NATO-Ukraine logistical development of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

There is now an active rail line from Ukraine to a Romanian sea port.

Check it out👇😍
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:17
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Originally Posted by pasta
If you can figure out how to build a helicopter powered by a gas turbine, surely a tank powered the same way isn't going to reveal any game-changing technologies...
Russia used a gas turbine in the T-80: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-80

The original T-80 design uses a 1,000 hp monobloc gas turbine engine instead of a 750-hp diesel engine of the T-64;later variants of the T-80 reverted to diesel engine usage. The gearbox is different, with five forward and one reverse gear, instead of seven forward and one reverse. Suspension reverts from pneumatic to torsion bar, with six forged steel-aluminium rubber-tyred road wheels on each side, with the tracks driven by rear sprockets.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:27
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
True, but Scholz can simply give approval by saying "YES"
Well, I am not so sure.

See the German Constitution:Article 26
[Securing international peace]


(1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

(2) Weapons designed for warfare may be manufactured, transported or marketed only with the permission of the Federal Government. Details shall be regulated by a federal law.

And then:
War Weapons Control Act (Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz, KrWaffKontrG)

Section 6 Denial of a Licence

(1) There shall be no entitlement to the granting of a licence.

(2) A licence may be denied especially if

1. there is a reason to assume that its granting would militate against the interest of the Federal Republic of Germany in maintaining good relations with other countries;

Germans are known for being very methodical ("zimperlich") in anything they do. One thing is some political statement and completely different thing is to start bureaucratic machinery to accomplish something exactly by the book.

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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:27
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Zelensky trolling Putin…


https://kyivindependent.com/news-fee...in-still-alive
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:38
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Originally Posted by India Four Two
I know this is a naive question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. What would happen if Finland sent its Leos to Ukraine without German permission?

How would they respond? Invade Finland?
They might suddenly find they have difficulty getting spares etc from Germany or future purchases.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:48
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Originally Posted by pasta
If you can figure out how to build a helicopter powered by a gas turbine, surely a tank powered the same way isn't going to reveal any game-changing technologies...
It's not the engine that will be of concern to the US, it will be all the secret stuff, comms, targeting, sighting, jamming, vision equipment, armour composition etc, remember where the US have lost tanks in the past they generally have been able to recover them, in Ukraine that will not be possible. I don't think there are many version either.

The Leopard has many variants, the ones being mooted are the Leopard 2 A4 and possibly A5, when you think that they are currently up to A7+ and a later version is on the boards. The difference between the A4 and A7 is quite significant, uprated armour on the mantle and top side, a lot more digital integration etc, check out this site

A4 model

https://www.kmweg.com/systems-produc.../leopard-2-a4/

then the difference between that above and the A7 model

https://www.kmweg.com/systems-produc.../leopard-2-a7/

you can access the A5 and A6 at the bottom of both pages.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:49
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They might suddenly find they have difficulty getting spares etc from Germany or future purchases.
​​​​​​​
Not sure they’d do that if half their NATO partners followed suit.

Might even be their preferred option, saves them having to make a decision and give permission.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 11:56
  #13650 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Not sure they’d do that if half their NATO partners followed suit.

Might even be their preferred option, saves them having to make a decision and give permission.
If they ignore Germany and send in stuff, Germany may well simply stop supporting the likes of the Gepards etc, doubtful but the worry is there.
Either way, as a major arms supplier I think their time is done, Poland is already rearming with South Korean and American armour and Germany appears to have no future in their forward planning.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 12:21
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More on this issue of tanks. They had better resolve this soon:-
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...tm_term=011923
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 12:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC
😂😂😂 The German government is doing more damage to the German arms industry than the RAF did
Remind me, who was the previous head of the German military and where did they go ?

Ursula von der Leyen has always left a trail of disaster | The Spectator
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 12:31
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2023-01-19/

MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, warned NATO on Thursday that the defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war.

Striking a similar tone at what he described as an anxious time for the country, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church said trying to destroy Russia would mean the end of the world.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Medvedev has repeatedly raised the threat of a nuclear apocalypse, but his admission now of the possibility of Russia's defeat indicates the level of Moscow's concern over increased Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
OR in other words Russia now believe's they could be defeated..

I saw a quote re the sacking of the last General Sergey Surovikin and the taking over by Valery Gerasimov, that stated you do not sack Generals when you are winning, only when you are losing.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 13:02
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Russia does not need to be defeated.
Just return the armed forces quietly to Russia, and the WAR will stop. Before everything gets truly out of control.
I think Putin has already made his point. We get it. So just turn the vacuum cleaner off or everyone will get sucked into the whirlpool.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 13:08
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Not sure they’d do that if half their NATO partners followed suit.

Might even be their preferred option, saves them having to make a decision and give permission.
With their pole position on mid/high-level cars being under severe threat from the EV competition ( and change to EV's cutting 320 000+ well-paid jobs anyway ), I don't think you'll find that attitude prevalent.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 13:31
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Originally Posted by MJ89
It does feel like those weeks before the 24th of feb when stuff could be seen coming, hence the NLAW & jav trigger was pulled. The British leading the way again. only we dont have 1000s of tanks. so 14 it is.
As I understand it, UK training and supplying NLAW started considerably earlier than February 2021. I have heard a reference to around 2018 however it was ramped up in 2020 well before Putin started parking troops and kit on the border.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 14:01
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Are the Russians getting twitchy that Ukraine may soon be receiving longer-range missiles?

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Old 19th Jan 2023, 14:27
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All of them!!!


he UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the UK will send a further 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine
The U.S. is finalizing a massive package of military aid for Ukraine. It’s expected to include for the first time nearly 100 Stryker and at least 50 Bradley. The numbers could change as administration goes through final deliberations on the package. - AP
According to Politico, new US millitary aid packege for Ukrainr will likely include GLSDB munition developed by Saab and Boing. GLSDB has a range of 150 km and it can hit the target within a radius of one meter. JUST DO IT!
Minister Anand announced that Canada will donate 200 Senator Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) to Ukraine. This new package of military assistance responds to a specific Ukrainian request for these vehicles, which are being purchased from Roshel, a Canadian company based in Mississauga, Ontario
"In the near future, we will send new batches of military support to Ukraine - Stinger, helicopters, machine guns with ammunition and UAV," - the head of Latvian Defense Ministry, during a working visit to Ukraine.
Sweden's deputy Prime Minister, Ebba Busch, that aside from 12 Archer artillery systems Sweden deliver 50 pieces of CV90 to Ukraine.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 15:15
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Gents, would you mind taking that to JB?

Back in our usual program: I've no idea what it was but damn it looks efficient to be fired at such a short distance.


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Old 19th Jan 2023, 15:20
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Possibility of Omani Challengers for Ukraine.

Just read a surprising report. Rheinmetall says it could buy Challenger 1 tanks from Oman, uprate them ( how far not specified ) and deliver in 2023. No mention of quantity.

focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/debatte-um-panzer-lieferungen-usa-wollen-stryker-panzer-liefern-pistorius-trifft-heute-us-kollegen_id_183448749.html
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