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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Jan 2023, 16:01
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Bravery comes in many forms…
If Scholz was on that truck he would empty Germany’s warehouse’s to stop this..


Russian propagandist realises too ate that being on the front line comes at a cost.


Last edited by NutLoose; 21st Jan 2023 at 16:34.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 16:07
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So give them all our Challengers.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 16:16
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All, a little, or nothing?

Originally Posted by Arty Fufkin
Send them all of our Challenger 2s. Their purpose was ultimately to kill Russian armour in the European theatre. Let them do what comes naturally.
Or does the store-man’s mantra of “you can’t have someone else might want it” hold sway.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
And you are going to replace the Challenger 2 with what? You do realise that the Challenger 3 is simply an updated version of our current Challenger 2 tanks, NOT new builds, or are you intending to leave the British Army weapons wise on par with the Vatican City guard?
Arty, Nutty, After some deep thought (painful at times) I thought that the idea was that we Ukraine are supposed to defeat Russian and Wagner forces In Ukraine, NOT by NATO in Poland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland or Sweden to mention the western most NATO/Nearly NATO countries currently with a direct border with Russia, and in some cases a border with Ukraine.

As far as I can see, at the moment Russian forces are being held back in some places, or are making negative advances in others helped by Ukraine's armed forces.

All of our Challenger 2s are at rest somewhere in UK and Europe not doing much. Piecemeal donations of MBTs merely mean that should the coming Russian spring offensive achieve the Russian aims then those piecemeal MBTs will have been defeated and, in some time-scale decided by Putins Kremlin, Russian forces will then look for the next missing piece of greater Russia which will inevitably be a NATO country, most likely Estonia.

Aha sez yourself, Article 5 kicks in. BUT will it? Will Hungary agree, will Germany pause things because of all the contracts their construction industry have in Ukraine the New Russia. How about Turkiye, they might have problems out in their eastern areas and don’t won’t be able to help.



And now, of course, we get to use our super duper MBTs, albeit far far too late, or watch the growth of new Russia.

I am minded of the old dilemma faced by the village elders where the road in the mountain leading to village had a bad bend which caused people to crash and fall down the mountain. Some in the village thought it best to keep an ambulance in the valley, others to build a fence on the mountain. Me? I’m all for the fence reinforced and guarded by 300 MBTs.

But then, what do I know? I'm only an ex NCO, not one of the smart retired VSO's or, God forbid, a politician.

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Old 21st Jan 2023, 16:28
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Do we have VSOs among us?

And if so, are any smart?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:02
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This is about far more than MBTs. They are a part of the capability that Ukraine needs. The emphasis needs to be on "a part". Wars are not won by MBTs alone. Wars are won by combined arms. This goes right back to Sun Tzu. It's nothing new. Focussing on one element (a small one at that) takes away from the need to look at the whole tactical picture.

Look at the type of warfare in the east of Ukraine. It is mostly not being fought on open ground, where fast and agile MBTs are most effective. It's being largely fought in urban areas. Warfare in urban areas is always a PITA. Most here will understand that. Some from first-hand experience. MBTs can play a useful role in that scenario, but that role is less significant than several others.

I would argue that if there were two key capabilities to single out with respect to ground fighting (which is where wars are won or lost) then they are firstly a long range strike capability to reduce Russia's resupply capability by disrupting their logistic support. Secondly Ukraine needs equipment to support an agile urban warfare capability.

My reasoning is this. During winter trench warfare is highly dependent on having a viable supply chain. Knock out re-supply for a few days and troops in trenches die, just from the cold and lack of food and fuel. The urban environment is less sensitive to this. They can rob and forage, take shelter in buildings and are a lot harder to dislodge than troops in trenches.

Ukraine needs MBTs. But let's not get derailed into thinking they are the only thing they need. If Ukraine had the ability to knock out targets 150km or more from their strongly held positions they could seriously disrupt their attackers capability this winter. HIMARS is very effective but Ukraine needs something with a longer range. Pity the extended range GMLRS variants aren't in full production. Maybe there is something that can be quickly adapted to fit the F-16 and give a very accurate and reasonably long range stand-off capability (apologies if this exists - outside my area of expertise - I was but a humbles signals guy that went on to work as a contractor. There are big gaps in my knowledge and understanding).
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:04
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[QUOTE=ACW342;11370932]
Originally Posted by NutLoose
And you are going to replace the Challenger 2 with what?
There would be no need to replace the Challengers with anything.
Where is the threat that would require MBTs in Britain?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:16
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[QUOTE=ACW342;11370932]
Originally Posted by NutLoose
And you are going to replace the Challenger 2 with what? You do realise that the Challenger 3 is simply an updated version of our current Challenger 2 tanks, NOT new builds, or are you intending to leave the British Army weapons wise on par with the Vatican City guard?[/QUOTE

Arty, Nutty, After some deep thought (painful at times) I thought that the idea was that we Ukraine are supposed to defeat Russian and Wagner forces In Ukraine, NOT by NATO in Poland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland or Sweden to mention the western most NATO/Nearly Nato countries currently with a direct border with Russia, and in some cases a border with Ukraine.

As far as I can see, at the moment Russian forces are being held back in some places, or are making negative advances in others helped by Ukraines armed forces.

All of our Challenger 2s are at rest somewhere in UK and Europe not doing much. Piecemeal donations of MBTs merely mean that should the coming Russian spring offensive achieve the Russian aims then those piecemeal MBTs will have been defeated and, in some timescale decided by Putins Kremlin, Russian forces will then look for the next missing piece of greater Russia which will inevitably be a Nato country, most likely Estonia.

Aha sez yourself, Article 5 kicks in. BUT will it? Will Hungary agree, will Germany pause things because of all the contracts their construction industry have in Ukraine the New Russia. How about Turkiye, they might have problems out in their eastern areas and donít wonít be able to help.



And now, of course, we get to use our super duper MBTs, albeit far far too late, or watch the growth of new Russia.

I am minded of the old dilemma faced by the village elders where the road in the mountain leading to village had a bad bend which caused people to crash and fall down the mountain. Some in the village thought it best to keep an ambulance in the valley, others to build a fence on the mountain. Me? Iím all for the fence reinforced and guarded by 300 MBTs.

But then, what do I know? I'm only an ex NCO, not one of the smart retired VSO's or, God forbid, a politician.
I understand that but a lot of the Challenger 2 are being converted, the U.K. has 227 in total, as opposed to 2300 Leopard 2 scattered about various countries and in storage.
Of those 227 tanks 148 Challenger 2 are slated to be upgraded, how many are currently going through the conversion process I do not know, but they are expected circa 2027 ish with fully in service 2030.
Plus we have tanks deployed under Article 5 to some of the NATO Countries, and of those 227 tanks, how many are actually usable is another question, often you hold war stocks that will need work to generate. I would have liked to see nearer thirty sent but those in the know will have looked at our capability to supply what and when.

https://www.army-technology.com/feat...r-2-provision/
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:37
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Originally Posted by Arty Fufkin
Send them all of our Challenger 2s. Their purpose was ultimately to kill Russian armour in the European theatre. Let them do what comes naturally.

Or does the store-manís mantra of ďyou canít have someone else might want itĒ hold sway.
I agree, we obviously are not going to build another tank in the UK so may as well buy Abrams as a replacement.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:37
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Originally Posted by NutLoose

I understand that but a lot of the Challenger 2 are being converted, the U.K. has 227 in total, as opposed to 2300 Leopard 2 scattered about various countries and in storage.
Of those 227 tanks 148 Challenger 2 are slated to be upgraded, how many are currently going through the conversion process I do not know, but they are expected circa 2027 ish with fully in service 2030.
Plus we have tanks deployed under Article 5 to some of the NATO Countries, and of those 227 tanks, how many are actually usable is another question, often you hold war stocks that will need work to generate. I would have liked to see nearer thirty sent but those in the know will have looked at our capability to supply what and when.

https://www.army-technology.com/feat...r-2-provision/
During my short stint as a contractor with a REME workshop I heard they worked to a rule of thirds. A third of the warstock was operational. A third could be made operational within a few weeks after being dragged out of deep storage. A third were totally f**ked *** and needed base overhaul to become serviceable. No idea if that's true today. Wouldn't be at all surprised to find it was.

*** Often robbed of parts to keep the operational vehicles going because there were no spares available.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 17:38
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And you are going to replace the Challenger 2 with what?
Itís going to have a new Rheinmetall turret anyway, so it is being suggested we give the Challengers to Ukraine and order new Korean K2 hulls to go with the new turret.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 18:07
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I think any replacement new build needs to be home built, buying in has a quality all of its own, however, buying in means the demise of the UK’s tank building industry, the closing of factories and the dispersal of the design teams meaning you will be beholden to other countries for your Armaments from hence forth. Look what happened to the likes of the UK’s once world beating military aviation companies, killed off by imports.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 18:12
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Originally Posted by ACW342
Arty, Nutty, After some deep thought (painful at times) I thought that the idea was that we Ukraine are supposed to defeat Russian and Wagner forces In Ukraine, NOT by NATO in Poland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland or Sweden to mention the western most NATO/Nearly Nato countries currently with a direct border with Russia, and in some cases a border with Ukraine.
Not wanting to be nitpicking but Sweden and Germany don't have a (land) border with Russia. There is Finland in the case of Sweden and Poland in the case of Germany in between them and Russia.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 18:15
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I think any replacement new build needs to be home built, buying in has a quality all of its own, however, buying in means the demise of the UKís tank building industry, the closing of factories and the dispersal of the design teams meaning you will be beholden to other countries for your Armaments from hence forth. Look what happened to the likes of the UKís once world beating military aviation companies, killed off by imports.

There is a great deal of merit in paying to retain a UK capability, The proviso is that it MUST be interoperable. The UK has a very nasty habit of producing unicorns, and then not having the funds to keep them operational and properly supported.

We could do a lot worse than look at Sweden. They have around 15% of the population of the UK, yet manage to produce and support some very capable bits of kit.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 18:50
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I think any replacement new build needs to be home built, buying in has a quality all of its own, however, buying in means the demise of the UKís tank building industry, the closing of factories and the dispersal of the design teams
What factories and design teams?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 19:17
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
There is a great deal of merit in paying to retain a UK capability, The proviso is that it MUST be interoperable. The UK has a very nasty habit of producing unicorns, and then not having the funds to keep them operational and properly supported.

We could do a lot worse than look at Sweden. They have around 15% of the population of the UK, yet manage to produce and support some very capable bits of kit.

and quite a lot of it comes from companies owned by BAE Systems. Perhaps though, they bought the companies and then remained hands-off. I don't know how they manage companies they buy.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 19:36
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It's a great shame that this tank issue is causing such division amongst allies when what is needed at this point is unity in confronting Putin's expansionism.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 19:38
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Looking at UK, we have a sad history of producing decent kit that nobody else buys, thus stuffing the unit cost through the roof. Yes, we need (?) a Defence industry, but my gut feeling is that go-it-alone days are long gone. Collaboration is the way ahead, surely? Stuff Challenger xx and buy in to a programme with Korea or [dare I say] Germany.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 20:26
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Originally Posted by ORAC
It’s going to have a new Rheinmetall turret anyway, so it is being suggested we give the Challengers to Ukraine and order new Korean K2 hulls to go with the new turret.
If we end up with a Rheinmetall turret, are we going to end up having to ask the Germans nicely to let us sell/lend/donate it to others? At the moment I can't see why buying German is a viable military option.

Originally Posted by MPN11
Looking at UK, we have a sad history of producing decent kit that nobody else buys, thus stuffing the unit cost through the roof. Yes, we need (?) a Defence industry, but my gut feeling is that go-it-alone days are long gone. Collaboration is the way ahead, surely? Stuff Challenger xx and buy in to a programme with Korea or [dare I say] Germany.
The next few years might be a good time to have a tank on the market if everyone is replenishing stocks and is less than enthused about buying German. Competing with the Koreans on a cost basis might be tricky though.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 20:32
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Originally Posted by Ripton
If we end up with a Rheinmetall turret, are we going to end up having to ask the Germans nicely to let us sell/lend/donate it to others? At the moment I can't see why buying German is a viable military option.
The U.K. BAe and Rheinmetall UK combined to form a single U.K. company, so probably not.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 20:48
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The U.K. BAe and Rheinmetall UK combined to form a single U.K. company, so probably not.
KMW and the French company Nexter have merged and are going to be building one unit to replace the Leopard and the Leclerc. This company is headquartered in the Netherlands which I see as their attempt to escape interference from both German and French governments.
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