Is Ukraine about to have a war?
 

There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.

In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.

Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.

Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.

Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.

Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.

Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.

So questions are

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?

At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.

Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.

You seriously think Ukraine will invade Russia?

A nice piece of pro-Russian propaganda there. The reported build of forces is by th3 Russians who are massing troops on their border - and have threatened NATO not to respond in kind.

You seems to suggest that all the previous fighting has been done by Ukrainians who resent the Kiev government, whilst most has been done by Russian forces operating inside Ukraine - including the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014.

This thing looks really concerning I have to say. Somebody coming for the next bite it seems.

Indeed. Over the last weeks/months, the OP has shown himself as a fervent supporter of Putin's Russia on this board. War is everywhere, including on the internet.

Worth noting that Mr Putin is also not as popular as he was

the last time he invaded the Crimea to boost his ratings.

Racedo is unfortunately playing the propaganda card early

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../ukra-m20.html

Kiev has been upping the ante since late January, just after Biden inauguration and has been moving equipment up close to contact areas. MSM has been ignoring it for weeks but it has been happening. Russia in response in the last week has started to move equipment to its borders.

People in Eastern Kiev rose up following Maidan overthrow of president and were then attacked by Kiev forces including neo Nazi paramilitaries.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.

Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.

Did you read the title of the thread ?

Invaded racedo - just because the population were Russian doesn't give anyone the right to invade another country - unless you're Hitler of course.

If you do think that that is the right way to run affairs please say so - presumably Finland and China can invade bits of Russia based on the same principles?

Distraction from Putin's Palace. Check.
Display of Russian nationalism.Russian Strong Ya. Check.

What's not to like for an old school operator.

Russia showing China how to do it.

As I was saying....

Of interest is that Russia is massing troops not only on the eastern border, but also to the south in Crimea. Which could signal yet another attempt to seize a land corridor in the south linking not only Crimea and Russia but also Trans-Dniester in Moldova (which is why its interesting Racedo mentions it even though there has been no recent activity there. ). Which will cause substantial concern yet again concerning Odessa, which is the 3rd largest city in Ukraine and its major seaport (Odessa is 68% ethnic Ukrainian, and 25% ethnic Russian)

.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ne/ar-BB1ff51r

Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russ...cow-2021-04-01

Russia warns new Donbass conflict could 'destroy' Ukraine, NATO rebukes Moscow

Er they already have a corridor across the Kerch Straits with a bridge that takes Road and Rail traffic.

I mention Transniestra because there are Russian military based there.

So invading and putting your military forces into another country makes a country Nazi................ I presume this is what you were saying.

In 1990's Crimea sought its own independence and had its own parliment but was threatened with War by Kiev if it refused to comply. Therefore if a region within a country seeks independence it should be threatened with full scale war ? Interesting.

I presumed NATO was fully in favour of a region within a country doing this.

I’m aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.

One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.

The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.

Not really a new war is it . Just the end of the ceasefire as promised by the comedian that got himself elected last year .
Cutting off the water and power during a ceasefire might be considered a war crime in other wars .

"therefore if a region within a country seeks independence it should be threatened with full scale war ? Interesting."

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a1006f4e13.jpg

Truth is the first casualty in war. That holds true for all sides.

Chechnya. Interesting.