Is Ukraine about to have a war?
An example how the sanctions affect Russias military sales. Although one factor probably is that the Russians may have warned of the disminished ability to provide them at all, neverminding whether due to sanctions restricing component availability or RF needing those themselves in Ukraine. Nevertheless, good news.
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Your verb is wrong. His idea was to rearm the nazis and joinlead them in the fight (as allies to our soldiers) against the commies. He was never going to join the Nazis. And as I noted above, his chain of command was uninterested in the war being recommenced. I suspect that Churchill may have sympathized with the feeling, but Great Britain was spent and I don't think he'd have advised taking that course of action.
Reference reports unnamed senior people within the Kremlin want to negotiate a “deal” to end the war - doubtless the source of the suggestions of giving up Ukrainian territory for “peace” - and doubtless removal of sanctions…
The united allied position is that the decision is up to Ukraine and they will back their decision 100%. President Zelenskyy has replied…
@ZelenskyyUa
"For us, to live without freedom is not to live. To be dependent is not to be. Therefore, we will not give up until we drive the last occupier out of our home. And we will not stop until we liberate the last meter of Ukrainian land."
The united allied position is that the decision is up to Ukraine and they will back their decision 100%. President Zelenskyy has replied…
@ZelenskyyUa
"For us, to live without freedom is not to live. To be dependent is not to be. Therefore, we will not give up until we drive the last occupier out of our home. And we will not stop until we liberate the last meter of Ukrainian land."
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
Escalation
The cost to Russia to date has been considerable, escalation increases those losses and the outcome is if successful gaining ownership of a wrecked country, and having to wear the cone of shame for the next century. A bargain wrapped in a disaster, inside a catastrophe. The fight doesn't end with the takeover of the terrain, it only begins, and that risks the complete stability of the rest of Russia. Oooops.
Continuation
When on a bad bet, just keep laying down the further bets, as that has always worked at Vegas.... not. The cost to Russia in capital terms, resources, military capability, lives of their defence force, and in Rubles, on top of the cost to their economy as it collapses to levels of more than a decade ago is problematic to stability fo the federation. Not looking good at all.
Withdrawal to 2014 lines
The "love" expended on the Donbas and other locations by Russia won't be forgotten readily; the behaviour of the Russian army in the field doesn't lend itself to winning hearts and minds. Expect that a prolonged asymmetric war would ensure within the Donbas, and as the population is effectively homogeneous to Russia proper, that would end up at the home door step.
Withdrawal to pre-2014 lines
Of any specific concern that Russia has had was the matter of the Black Sea fleet. With the global warming situation, the Baltic and Northern fleets will become ice free 24/7/365 in the next decade, and it is possible that even Kamchatka will follow suit. Vladivostok is very close to ice free if not already, being kept open at worst by ice breakers. Within the Black sea area, Russia has a good port in Novorossiysk, which is completely ice free. Russia would still feel compromised by the Kerch waterway, which is their access to the Sea of Azov, the Don river and the major port of Rostov on Don. There is a possible opportunity to demilitarize completely Crimea and have it supported by a standing UN force, to ensure that no militarization arises from either side. The sad part is that Ukraine had entered into an agreement in the post 1991 condition to let Russia maintain access to the Black Sea fleet using Sevastopol as a base, and the action of Russia was to undermine that largesse in 2014.
Putin can pull success out of this on the home front as being the peace maker, which oddly is in the best interests of Russia. That is, Russia has a historic anxiety towards it's territory, and arguably uses that paranoia as a justification for it's appalling action to it's neighbors. The damage to the relationship of Russia with neighboring states is not in the interest of the Russian citizenry. Returning Russia to a position of international accord is important, unless we all want to revisit the best and worst of the Cold War. Did that, didn't like it so much. Russia needs to be resuscitated at some point, but it also needs to wind back the anxiety that is in their psyche, while having a bit of a belly button cogitation on what is in the interest of the public as far as graft and corruption is concerned. Re-nationalizing resources that were plundered in the aftermath of 1991 would be a good start. Giving the oligarchs a minor residual compensatory amount may smooth that sort of transition back to a normal market working for the masses. Energy wise, Russia needs to move away from being dependent on such resources, they have enough on hand to reset their economy to other alternatives.
Russia will need help on various matters by the global community to normalize their economy, and to deal with the festering problem of nuclear waste etc that has lost it's headline space in recent months but remains a present danger. Not much help will be forthcoming unless a comprehensive understanding can be achieved that resolves the Russian concerns, and any such agreement has to be robust enough to survive the recidivist history towards agreements that Russia has cataloged over a lone time line.
The kinetic character of warfare with current art munitions precludes an 30 year or 100 year war scenario, the expenditure and losses are of biblical proportions in the field, Russia is losing around a company a day, a couple of battalions a week, and Ukraine is suffering losses that are at the very least a substantial percentage of the Russian losses, on a historic attacker/defender ratio for a non-blizkreig event (Sitzkrieg 2.0?).
While Russia may consider it's interests lie in no less than a 2014 line of ceasefire, that may not be the most cost effective balance all up. The concept of cost/gain balance that was being taught pre 24 Feb 22 suggested there was no rational basis for the "Special Military Operation"; 6 months later, the glaring deficit in rationale has been reinforced by the global deterioration of the strategic position of Russia in the context of an "us v them" model. NATO has expanded considerably, the alliance is stronger for the threat that was imposed, and by any measure Russia has lost a very large proportion of it's forces, and shown severe deficiencies of their equipment, leadership, manpower, policies, procedures and practices in the field.
An exit strategy that doesn't provide for any territorial gain by Russia may seem unpalatable, but that can be made more attractive by action by the global community that may wish to improve global security while returning Russia to the international community. It is a shame to lose the richness of the arts and history of Russia due to the errors of a single individual who acted incautiously based on questionable intelligence as a consequence of his "manner" of management. Ukraine still needs to be remediated, the load of recovery will befall on the rest of the world one way of the other.
An excellent precis of the options available to Russia, however, as noted many times previously, the psyche of the average Russian walking the streets would not countenance any of the better options above unless a radical re-assessment of their actual fallibility occurred. This would require a mental leap beyond anything they can tolerate. Possibly a revolution might do it, but simply changing the government just gets you more of the same.
IG
IG
I dont speak russian so cant confirm it but theres videos going around on social media of russians protesting with placards that have pictures of russian servicemen who have lost limbs in ukraine. Apparently they are begging US and UK to stop sending weapons to ukraine. Sound like a form of cognitive dissonance to me.
To revert to an aviation theme, an utter SA failure occurred from the start of this at all levels; perception, comprehension and projection. Similar factors plague the continuation of the war (special cluster F%8#, for naval aviators)
Perception errors stem from prior experience that reinforced mental models that just ain't so. The actions in Chechnya, Syria, and even Ukraine 1.0 gave an overly optimistic expectation of the capabilities of the Russian forces in all areas. The expectation of an OP PLAN "Z"? giving a certain victory in 72 hours would have had Sun Tzu running out getting more quills to write with. The consequences of that assumption continue to reverberate in the field today. Ukraine took the hard lessons of the last 8 years and did something about it, Russia basked in the glory of taking on an unprepared and unexpecting neighbor with a sneak attack worthy of it's own "day that shall live in infamy". When Russia came about again to the rinse & repeat cycle, not too many people were going to cross the party line and advise the Count that there was a bit of a gap between fact and reported status of the might of the realm. Normalization of deviation had also occurred, Russia expected the West to sit back and just cluck away in disdain. The Russians did not factor that NATO, even in a diminished capacity, was able to come together and find common cause in the injustice that had befallen Ukraine, and the inherent risk that an attack on Ukraine imposed on NATO as well. Who knew! Who knew that it was a bad time of the year to undertake combined force actions with mechanized brigades, on ground unsuited for the activity, it had been ever thus.
Comprehension failures abounded in this scratching of the kitty litter. The consequences of the steep learning curve that Russia was given by Ukraine in the first week was lost thereafter, and remains uncorrected to date. Russia had an option to either sort it out or get out, and they chose a third option, rinse & repeat, as it always works better the second time around without correction. Russia managed to dump enough stores and bang on civil population areas and to rape, pillage and murder enough people to be able to suspect that the winning of hearts and minds would be incompatible with the loving kindness shown by the Russian conscript in the field under the quality supervision of the army. That is an own goal, and continues to replicated at every opportunity, stupid is not fixable apparently.
Projection of the consequences of "play it again, Sam" dropped through the floor gratings. Conflict takes 2 to play, and assuming the other side is just going to acquiesce or be less irritated than you would be is a recipe for a lousy day. From day 1, it was evident that there was considerable response to the actions of Russia, and yet the continued ratcheting up of sanctions and of munition supplies to the Ukrainians have Russia bemoaning their fate. This is also the Russian tourist status in the European countries complaining of being less than cordially welcomed, and of the lament that the world's arms being provided to Ukraine are causing hardship and suffering of the poor invader.
The global failure of SA extends to the resolution of the conflict, but adds inertia, resentment, hubris, and self-interest into the mix of making rational choices. The rational options are few, with some variants turning them into a spectrum. Continuing on a bad path hoping for a change in the dice from General Winter or other saviors is tantamount to just hope, and hope is apparently not a rat cunning plan.
Perception errors stem from prior experience that reinforced mental models that just ain't so. The actions in Chechnya, Syria, and even Ukraine 1.0 gave an overly optimistic expectation of the capabilities of the Russian forces in all areas. The expectation of an OP PLAN "Z"? giving a certain victory in 72 hours would have had Sun Tzu running out getting more quills to write with. The consequences of that assumption continue to reverberate in the field today. Ukraine took the hard lessons of the last 8 years and did something about it, Russia basked in the glory of taking on an unprepared and unexpecting neighbor with a sneak attack worthy of it's own "day that shall live in infamy". When Russia came about again to the rinse & repeat cycle, not too many people were going to cross the party line and advise the Count that there was a bit of a gap between fact and reported status of the might of the realm. Normalization of deviation had also occurred, Russia expected the West to sit back and just cluck away in disdain. The Russians did not factor that NATO, even in a diminished capacity, was able to come together and find common cause in the injustice that had befallen Ukraine, and the inherent risk that an attack on Ukraine imposed on NATO as well. Who knew! Who knew that it was a bad time of the year to undertake combined force actions with mechanized brigades, on ground unsuited for the activity, it had been ever thus.
Comprehension failures abounded in this scratching of the kitty litter. The consequences of the steep learning curve that Russia was given by Ukraine in the first week was lost thereafter, and remains uncorrected to date. Russia had an option to either sort it out or get out, and they chose a third option, rinse & repeat, as it always works better the second time around without correction. Russia managed to dump enough stores and bang on civil population areas and to rape, pillage and murder enough people to be able to suspect that the winning of hearts and minds would be incompatible with the loving kindness shown by the Russian conscript in the field under the quality supervision of the army. That is an own goal, and continues to replicated at every opportunity, stupid is not fixable apparently.
Projection of the consequences of "play it again, Sam" dropped through the floor gratings. Conflict takes 2 to play, and assuming the other side is just going to acquiesce or be less irritated than you would be is a recipe for a lousy day. From day 1, it was evident that there was considerable response to the actions of Russia, and yet the continued ratcheting up of sanctions and of munition supplies to the Ukrainians have Russia bemoaning their fate. This is also the Russian tourist status in the European countries complaining of being less than cordially welcomed, and of the lament that the world's arms being provided to Ukraine are causing hardship and suffering of the poor invader.
The global failure of SA extends to the resolution of the conflict, but adds inertia, resentment, hubris, and self-interest into the mix of making rational choices. The rational options are few, with some variants turning them into a spectrum. Continuing on a bad path hoping for a change in the dice from General Winter or other saviors is tantamount to just hope, and hope is apparently not a rat cunning plan.
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I’m sorry I did not intend to suggest “join” to be as it appears. It can be used in legalese as meaning embroil or involve. Patton saw himself and the allies as taking control of Nazi forces.
Vetoed by FDR as I recall, as he'd promised Stalin a second front would be opened..?
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Well they nailed that puppy..
Consequences of the destruction of the Russian base in Nova Kakhovka with the help of high-precision ammunition
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Warning Aviation content
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Byeee, don't come back 
"38,297 vehicles crossed the bridge *in either direction*"
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An excellent precis of the options available to Russia, however, as noted many times previously, the psyche of the average Russian walking the streets would not countenance any of the better options above unless a radical re-assessment of their actual fallibility occurred. This would require a mental leap beyond anything they can tolerate. Possibly a revolution might do it, but simply changing the government just gets you more of the same.
IG
IG
Since... well (2014) but more immediately up to Christmas before the 24th of feb, With the propaganda channels buzzing with clean smart panels shows Joseph Goebbels would applaud, and all sorts of huge crazy claims of threats of nato & EU, and super weapons. and all that we have seen.
SInce the bullets started flying, Tupolevs launching missile after missile into hospitals, schools, theaters full of sheltering kids etc, 100% targeted. my opinions changed.
These are people who have now been brainwashed over 2 decades of putins Russia, to a point when it comes down to the wire and they are seeing slavs being bombed and massacred , they are raging on telegram and all sorts of channels, in denial, for PUTIN! and it reminds me of those 1945 movie reals of nazi on nazi being confronted by what happened. whether a destroyed Berlin or a local walk to the recently freed concentration camp, or the movie theaters the allies then filled during the true de-weeding and de-nazification that went on. WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
It took the most complete defeat in world history, to put a stop to it, and still yet some stayed nazi's until day they died. Same with the japanease and the even worse **** they did.
there was a lot of evil in the world in the 1930s/40s, the west possibly only stopped 2/3.
Last edited by MJ89; 17th Aug 2022 at 17:07.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Mayor: Explosions heard in the center of Russian-occupied Melitopol.
The explosions allegedly took place near a Russian command center but casualties are yet to be determined, said Ivan Fedorov, mayor of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The explosions allegedly took place near a Russian command center but casualties are yet to be determined, said Ivan Fedorov, mayor of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
[QUOTE=NutLoose;11280030]I see what you mean, there was another one which I cannot find, Not seen this one before, very brave, you can hear them taking small rounds.
Airminship there, nerves of steel, the boys from bomber command , to Helmand for that matter would approve. 
and
Recce'ing the Mosokva
and
Recce'ing the Mosokva
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Spread the fear 
Indeed it was. I for one would love Russia to be booted out of Ukraine however the realist in me believes this is unlikely to happen anytime soon and, even if it did, it would come at considerable (additional) human and material cost to Ukraine. Would it really be worth it, especially if the considerable prizes of EU and NATO membership could be realised much faster than it will otherwise be? IMO this would far outweigh the economic impact of its loss of territory.
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We can only support their decisions, whichever ones they choose.