Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[dead_pan]

Ukraine should cede territories currently occupied by Russia in exchange for the remainder of the country being granted NATO membership. Discuss.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Russian media report of a new airbase fire in Crimea today, this time on the military air-field at Hvardeyskye (Gvardeyskoe). It housed 12 SU-24М and 12 SU-25СМ planes and was integrated with the Russian Navy.

they can't say they weren't warned

Originally Posted by Beamr

"According to Russian media, Saki air base of Russian Navy Aviation has now been evacuated following the missile strike of Ukraine. The surviving aircraft of 43rd Independent Assault Aviation Regiment are flown to Gvardeyskoye air base in North of Simferopol, Crimea"

If the Ukrainians could hit Saki, those planes aren't in a safe place.

[NutLoose]

Do you not think the strike previously hit one of these?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker

Further attacks near Dzhankoy, Crimea. Or maybe it's a carelessly discarded cigarette...

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/...nnSNa7O0g&s=19

Wow, the Z Team need safety matches and a minimum distance between cigarettes and Vodka, or good ear plugs.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Ukraine should cede territories currently occupied by Russia in exchange for the remainder of the country being granted NATO membership. Discuss.

WHAT? That is most of their gas, coal, oil reserves and a lot of their agricultural lands as well as their main industrial areas....... NO CHANCE. you would bankrupt the country in short order, and it would not end there.

[ORAC]

Ukraine won’t be allowed in NATO whilst half their country is occupied - and Russia would just take the opportunity to consolidate, rearm, and then come back for the rest.

[NutLoose]

Same guys that took out the airfield allegedly? Or simply to spread fear and worry amongst Russians that they may have fifth columists amongst them, who knows it may end up a red on red firefight in places..

Twitter

[DirtyProp]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Ukraine should cede territories currently occupied by Russia in exchange for the remainder of the country being granted NATO membership. Discuss.

Sure, when Kaliningrad goes back to Germany and Belarus gets out of Russian influence altogether, with Lukashenko and his claque behind bars.
Oh, and there's also the Kuril islands...

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Ukraine won’t be allowed in NATO whilst half their country is occupied - and Russia would just take the opportunity to consolidate, rearm, and then come back for the rest.

So has Ukraine's NATO membership always been contingent on them retaking the Crimea and other territories occupied by Russia and its proxies? This was never elucidated before the invasion.

Personally if a deal could be done along these lines I'd be tempted to encourage Ukraine to take it.

[PeterX60]

So has Ukraine's NATO membership always been contingent on them retaking the Crimea and other territories occupied by Russia and its proxies? This was never elucidated before the invasion.

Personally if a deal could be done along these lines I'd be tempted to encourage Ukraine to take it.

And I'm sure in 1938 you would have been happy for Adolf to occupy Czechoslovakia, to ensure peace in our time.

[Imagegear]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

So has Ukraine's NATO membership always been contingent on them retaking the Crimea and other territories occupied by Russia and its proxies? This was never elucidated before the invasion.

Personally if a deal could be done along these lines I'd be tempted to encourage Ukraine to take it.

When Scotland was whipping up the SNP prior to the attempt to gain independence, one of the suggestions made made at the time was that if the UK were to pull the plug on trade and finance, and rebase in England. Scotland would then engage with Russia to restore their trade and finances, even to the extent of "friendly" basing.

Now tell me what the response of the general UK population and Government would be to such a strategy?

Tell them they could have East Lothian and Glasgow but not the rest?

I would suggest that bigger fish would sail,

IG

[jolihokistix]

The problem with our Vlad is that he will never be satisfied. He invaded Ukraine with no compromise possible.

He is a visionary, so his minions on the ground feel forced to move things around in hopes of recreating what he sees in his head.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by PeterX60

And I'm sure in 1938 you would have been happy for Adolf to occupy Czechoslovakia, to ensure peace in our time.

If we'd have had nukes and could have insisted that was it, then probably yes.

Don't forget we gave up half of Europe at the end of the war.

[ORAC]

Dead_pan,

Has that always been NATO policy? In reality, yes. Accepted for future membership in principle…. But not yet….

https://warontherocks.com/2021/06/wh...-action-plans/

[WB627]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

If we'd have had nukes and could have insisted that was it, then probably yes.

Don't forget we gave up half of Europe at the end of the war.

IIRC that was pretty much the half we didn't have at the start and why we entered the war. At the end* all we had achieved was swopping one murderous dictator for another. We utterly betrayed those in Europe that we had sought to free in the first place.

At the end * of the war, the west did have nukes, but the Americans did not want to threaten our former ally with them, to free Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, as we should have done.

end * You cant have an end to something that isn't finished yet.

[Usertim]

Here is a nice pic of the crimean ammo dump from April.
Who knows what is there now, but the general area was devastated as seen by the larger explosions and amount of secondaries.

Twitter

[ORAC]

Reference reports unnamed senior people within the Kremlin want to negotiate a “deal” to end the war - doubtless the source of the suggestions of giving up Ukrainian territory for “peace” - and doubtless removal of sanctions…

The united allied position is that the decision is up to Ukraine and they will back their decision 100%. President Zelenskyy has replied…

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/...F_wz9CvMD3E8TA

@ZelenskyyUa

"For us, to live without freedom is not to live. To be dependent is not to be. Therefore, we will not give up until we drive the last occupier out of our home. And we will not stop until we liberate the last meter of Ukrainian land."

[FUMR]

Interesting ORAC. Or is it just wishful thinking by some?

I read all the academic writings on this forum but I think that the best explanation is quite simple: Get out of the Ukraine completely and never come back. Replace Putin with someone who will bring honour back to the Russian population through cooperation and not confrontation. End of war and resumption of (near) normal life.

[MPN11]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Russian media report of a new airbase fire in Crimea today, this time on the military air-field at Hvardeyskye (Gvardeyskoe). It housed 12 SU-24М and 12 SU-25СМ planes and was integrated with the Russian Navy.

https://t.me/kommersant/37638

It’s nice to see that RUAF aircraft parking is reminiscent of the US aircraft at Pearl Harbor. Lessons of history?

[ORAC]

FUMR,

Putin isn’t the problem, he’s a symptom. There is indeed great unrest with him in Russia, but even more so with the “elite” he represents and are seen as having been seduced by the West.

The article below is, I believe, pretty representative of those below the Kremlin who don’t want a coup, thry want a revolution…..

https://wartranslated.com/pro-soviet...or-the-regime/

Pro-Soviet, Russian author Maksim Kalashnikov on why declaring Russia a “terrorist state” is a bad omen for the regime