Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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it’s not as if we haven’t provided aviation assets, although most have been helicopters. We have also provided western modernised eastern armour.
If true the problem they are going to have if the get F16 or F15 is it is being reported most Russian jet launched weapons come from outside Ukraine, though the Backfires over the Black sea may be fair game?
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The side discussion on renewable energy has been moved to its own thread in Jet Blast.
Recent news of Russian missile strikes can be found here.
Recent news of Russian missile strikes can be found here.
Originally Posted by bbc
Russian long-range cruise missiles killed three people in Ukraine's central city of Dnipro when they hit a space rocket plant and a nearby street, local officials say.About 15 people were injured and nearby residential buildings damaged.
Dnipro's Yuzhmash plant also builds satellites - with one launched into space by Elon Musk's SpaceX company.
Russia's defence ministry said the factory made parts for Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
Another two people died when dozens of Russian rockets were fired at Nikopol, south of Dnipro, a regional leader said.
And in the north, Russian rockets hit housing overnight in Chuhuiv, a town near the city of Kharkiv, killing three people, the Kharkiv governor said.
Dnipro's Yuzhmash plant also builds satellites - with one launched into space by Elon Musk's SpaceX company.
Russia's defence ministry said the factory made parts for Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
Another two people died when dozens of Russian rockets were fired at Nikopol, south of Dnipro, a regional leader said.
And in the north, Russian rockets hit housing overnight in Chuhuiv, a town near the city of Kharkiv, killing three people, the Kharkiv governor said.
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A good read on the situation
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...22-7?r=US&IR=T
Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the US Army in Europe, told Insider that Ukraine's ability to push Russian troops back to the existing borders depends on continued Western support through sanctionsand weapons deliveries.
"The Russians are exhausted," Hodges said. "They don't have much else they can do right now."
He added that much of Putin's military is already committed to the war, but Russia has had little territorial success to show for its efforts after 20 weeks of war.
Hodges said the "full weight" of Western support is just now beginning to take shape with the delivery of long-range rocket systems — weapons Ukraine has begged for from the US and its allies for weeks.
He added that one key to Ukraine's success will be knocking out Russia's "only advantage": Putin's arsenal of artillery and rockets.
"It looks to me that wherever the Russians do not have overwhelming firepower advantage, then the Ukrainians win 100 times out of a 100," Hodges said. "So providing the Ukrainian's ability to strike Russian artillery, Russian rockets, their ammunition storage, and command posts, that's what destroys and disrupts the one thing that the Russians have that is to their advantage."
Ukraine also maintains a significant advantage in morale, Hodges said, while Russian troops are bogged down by a lack of resources and capabilities — preventing them from making any "meaningful progress" on the battlefield.
Still, Russia has seen some incremental progress in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, where the conflict has emerged as a deadly and slow-moving campaign of artillery exchanges after Putin's troops failed to capture the capital city, Kyiv.
Hodges said Russian troops are willing to keep fighting a "war of attrition," because they have "nothing else they can do," and Putin could drag the conflict through the end of the year in the hope that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine because of domestic issues like gas prices and inflation.
In a war of attrition, Hodges said, Russia needs unlimited time, ammunition, and personnel. They appear to have enough ammunition, he said, while UK intelligence said on Monday that a troop shortage may force the Kremlin to recruit from prisons.
But, Hodges said, "I do think they're on the clock a little bit. If the West sticks together through this year then I think it will be over."
Throughout the war, many Western countries have joined together to slap a slew of sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with requested weapons. In turn, Putin has tried to threaten and apply pressure on the West for its widespread support of Ukraine.
The war has also pushed Western countries to unite in historic ways. Last month, the European Union accepted Ukraine as a candidate country to join the bloc, while NATO invited Finland and Sweden into the alliance in a show of defiance against Putin.
"If we don't stick together, if we don't deliver what we said we would, then I think the Russians will happily settle for a long war, where they just continue intruding away and doing all they can to destroy Ukraine as a country, and destroy its economy, and destroy the idea of Ukraine as a state," Hodges said.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...22-7?r=US&IR=T
Ukrainian forces could wipe out all of 'exhausted' Russian troops' territorial gains, retired US general says
- A retired US general told Insider that Ukraine could push Russian troops back to prewar borders.
- Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said Ukraine's ability to do so continues to ride on Western support.
- He said Russian forces are "exhausted" and "don't have much else they can do right now."
Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the US Army in Europe, told Insider that Ukraine's ability to push Russian troops back to the existing borders depends on continued Western support through sanctionsand weapons deliveries.
"The Russians are exhausted," Hodges said. "They don't have much else they can do right now."
He added that much of Putin's military is already committed to the war, but Russia has had little territorial success to show for its efforts after 20 weeks of war.
Hodges said the "full weight" of Western support is just now beginning to take shape with the delivery of long-range rocket systems — weapons Ukraine has begged for from the US and its allies for weeks.
He added that one key to Ukraine's success will be knocking out Russia's "only advantage": Putin's arsenal of artillery and rockets.
"It looks to me that wherever the Russians do not have overwhelming firepower advantage, then the Ukrainians win 100 times out of a 100," Hodges said. "So providing the Ukrainian's ability to strike Russian artillery, Russian rockets, their ammunition storage, and command posts, that's what destroys and disrupts the one thing that the Russians have that is to their advantage."
Ukraine also maintains a significant advantage in morale, Hodges said, while Russian troops are bogged down by a lack of resources and capabilities — preventing them from making any "meaningful progress" on the battlefield.
Still, Russia has seen some incremental progress in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, where the conflict has emerged as a deadly and slow-moving campaign of artillery exchanges after Putin's troops failed to capture the capital city, Kyiv.
Hodges said Russian troops are willing to keep fighting a "war of attrition," because they have "nothing else they can do," and Putin could drag the conflict through the end of the year in the hope that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine because of domestic issues like gas prices and inflation.
In a war of attrition, Hodges said, Russia needs unlimited time, ammunition, and personnel. They appear to have enough ammunition, he said, while UK intelligence said on Monday that a troop shortage may force the Kremlin to recruit from prisons.
But, Hodges said, "I do think they're on the clock a little bit. If the West sticks together through this year then I think it will be over."
Throughout the war, many Western countries have joined together to slap a slew of sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with requested weapons. In turn, Putin has tried to threaten and apply pressure on the West for its widespread support of Ukraine.
The war has also pushed Western countries to unite in historic ways. Last month, the European Union accepted Ukraine as a candidate country to join the bloc, while NATO invited Finland and Sweden into the alliance in a show of defiance against Putin.
"If we don't stick together, if we don't deliver what we said we would, then I think the Russians will happily settle for a long war, where they just continue intruding away and doing all they can to destroy Ukraine as a country, and destroy its economy, and destroy the idea of Ukraine as a state," Hodges said.
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Russia claiming to have captured a HIMARS but no evidence so far and all from Russian news, they also claim 2 destroyed.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/0...e-media-claim/
short version of link.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/0...e-media-claim/
short version of link.
MOSCOW ($1=57.00 Russian Rubles) — Control of an American MLRS HIMARS provided to Ukraine by the United States has been taken over by the armed forces of Russia, say the media, mainly Russian. According to sources [not saying what sources, not naming names, not even mentioning the public, political or military status of the sources], the rocket system has already been transported to Russia, without mentioning whether this HIMARS MLRS has been sold or captured during hostilities.The initial information came from the Russian online portal Ruskaya Vesna [in English it means Russian Spring]. After that, several Russian media, among them Gazeta.ru, Vzglyad, and others began to spread the same information. What is interesting in this particular case is that on the Telegram channel of Ruskaya Vesna, Russian users are inviting the media to publish photos as evidence of Russian control over the American system. Such photos, not even one, have not been published.
At this time, there is no official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense to confirm the Russian media story. Beyond speculation, experts note that if the news is true, this MLRS could be a significant loss for Washington, as it would allow Russian specialists to develop ways to counter such installations.
According to the Russian MoD statement, the strikes were carried out with precision air-launched missiles [unspecified how many] and destroyed two US-made and Ukraine-supplied HIMARS light multiple rocket launchers and two ammunition depots for them. The Russian news agency TASS also reported the news, citing the report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for July 6, 2022.
The Ministry of the Russian Federation shares a video with air strikes on the night and early morning on 6 July.
At this time, there is no official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense to confirm the Russian media story. Beyond speculation, experts note that if the news is true, this MLRS could be a significant loss for Washington, as it would allow Russian specialists to develop ways to counter such installations.
Destroyed HIMARS
On July 6, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced in a press release that the Russian armed forces have carried out airstrikes in the area of the settlement of Malotaranovka in the Donetsk region.According to the Russian MoD statement, the strikes were carried out with precision air-launched missiles [unspecified how many] and destroyed two US-made and Ukraine-supplied HIMARS light multiple rocket launchers and two ammunition depots for them. The Russian news agency TASS also reported the news, citing the report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for July 6, 2022.
The Ministry of the Russian Federation shares a video with air strikes on the night and early morning on 6 July.
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HIMARS attacks appear to be having an effect on artillery
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There is also the matter of the attrition of Ukranian personnel.
Any more news on the other Migs/Su's coming in from other previous Warsaw pact nations? I see that a few weeks back Romania is working a deal to get their hands on some more F-16's.
The Romanian government on Thursday {mid june} approved a bill to buy 32 second-hand F-16 fighter jets from Norway, as well as logistics support and services, for an estimated 454 million euros ($473 million). According to Reuters, the information would have been confirmed by the Romanian Defense Minister. As we advanced at the end of 2021, Romania was looking to incorporate more F-16 fighter jets, from the surplus of other NATO member countries, to form two squadrons and to be able to finally replace its old MiG-21 Lancer.
The Romanian Air Force (RoAF) currently has 17 F-16 A/B fighter aircraft purchased second-hand from Portugal between 2016 and 2021. These aircraft were at the time upgraded to MLU standard, M5.2R configuration, which gives it similar capabilities to the F-16s of blocks 50/52.
Originally Posted by uxb99
Is the Su35 considered inferior?
Hmm, my point on personnel seems to have hit rather hard of late.
It's a long article, but here are some major points:
It's a long article, but here are some major points:
- On July 5, Ukrainian army generals issued a proclamation dramatically expanding the martial law prohibiting Ukrainian civilian men’s freedom of movement, calling on all those “liable for military service” to remain in their home districts. ...one Ukrainian tweeted, “Now we can’t even leave our cities without permission from military recruitment centers.” Another tweeted, “Animals have more rights in Ukraine than men.”
- It’s all because of a sex-selective martial law the Ukrainian government passed at the onset of the war. Men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave the country except under very specific exemptions. Even male residents of other countries, such as international students home on winter break when the war started, have been trapped behind the front lines.
- While some men wish not to join the army, many say what they find most frustrating is that they are not even being conscripted and trained to fight—just held in the country unable to either work to support their families, find employment abroad, or more meaningfully support the war.
- When men are forced to stay, families often stay, too...But civilian men are vulnerable in conflict zones in their own right...as political scientist Adam Jones has documented, civilian men are often the first to be executed by the enemy on the belief that they are really fighters—as my own research on Srebrenica and the recent massacre at Bucha confirmed. It is one thing to conscript, train, equip, and deploy men and women as soldiers; it is another to hold them as unarmed civilians in a shooting war on the basis of gender.
- Zelensky responded to the petition in June by invoking the Ukraine constitution’s provisions on martial law. There are now rumors that the travel ban and conscription policy might be extended to women as well in October. That might resolve the gender equality issue, but it would also mean male and female civilians facing equal-opportunity violations of another fundamental human right: the right to freedom of movement.
I dont think it would be aircraft as such, its more what they could be carrying. Might be hell of a surprise to have a few amrams launched at you, proper current generation air to mud munitions and anti radar
MOSCOW ($1=57.00 Russian Rubles) — Control of an American MLRS HIMARS provided to Ukraine by the United States has been taken over by the armed forces of Russia, say the media, mainly Russian. According to sources [not saying what sources, not naming names, not even mentioning the public, political or military status of the sources], the rocket system has already been transported to Russia, without mentioning whether this HIMARS MLRS has been sold or captured during hostilities.The initial information came from the Russian online portal Ruskaya Vesna [in English it means Russian Spring]. After that, several Russian media, among them Gazeta.ru, Vzglyad, and others began to spread the same information. What is interesting in this particular case is that on the Telegram channel of Ruskaya Vesna, Russian users are inviting the media to publish photos as evidence of Russian control over the American system. Such photos, not even one, have not been published.
At this time, there is no official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense to confirm the Russian media story. Beyond speculation, experts note that if the news is true, this MLRS could be a significant loss for Washington, as it would allow Russian specialists to develop ways to counter such installations.
At this time, there is no official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense to confirm the Russian media story. Beyond speculation, experts note that if the news is true, this MLRS could be a significant loss for Washington, as it would allow Russian specialists to develop ways to counter such installations.
The comment about the alleged captured vehicle being sold is interesting, given the recent FT article about western weapons being diverted and sold on the black market. I wonder if Russia has offered a bounty on these systems?
(Assuming this story is true and not more Russia propaganda BS..)
That is the 64 dollar question, isn't it?
There is also the matter of the attrition of Ukranian personnel.
Any more news on the other Migs/Su's coming in from other previous Warsaw pact nations? I see that a few weeks back Romania is working a deal to get their hands on some more F-16's.
(Not sure if those Lancers would be any good for the Ukranians.
Probably depends on how well trained the pilot is. I note that the Chinese have bought some Su-35's within the past decade, so how they handle themselves against the Viper is probably down to pilot training and tactics development.
There is also the matter of the attrition of Ukranian personnel.
Any more news on the other Migs/Su's coming in from other previous Warsaw pact nations? I see that a few weeks back Romania is working a deal to get their hands on some more F-16's.
(Not sure if those Lancers would be any good for the Ukranians.
Probably depends on how well trained the pilot is. I note that the Chinese have bought some Su-35's within the past decade, so how they handle themselves against the Viper is probably down to pilot training and tactics development.
The question is, has the VVS etc had the same level of corruption as the rest of the military or not. I would think that it would have some, but selling an Su-34 for scrap is probably harder than selling off T-72 main gun barrels.
What appears to be the case is that the lack of flying that has happened in their airforce has bitten them on the butt, and getting flight time while getting plinked at is probably much less fun.
The ROE would probably come along and decline lobbing Amraams across the northern border, but Crimea is legally still Ukrainian, as is Donbas, and the Black Sea is open season.
Still think that there is more value there with MH-6s and AH-1, and A-10s, not all are going to come back, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainians have the fortitude and intent to at least go out, while Germany recoils from offending Vlad, and the rest of the gang play politics while innocent people are getting slaughtered, and the brutal regime in the Kremlin continues to care more about his coiffure than the lives of his conscripts. If there was ever a good reason for a Russian Revolution, it is now, to get rid of Count Vlad and his kleptocrats, and to place some deferential self interested politicians and general staff into the Lubyanka, releasing the crew of the Moscow from confinement... seems like a fair swap.
With enough flares, the A-10 may well be in it's element, the real "last gunfighter" , and yes, that could be overly optimistic, but am sure that there are a number of old Su-25 drivers that would like to be given more than pitchforks to keep the barbarians at bay. The edge is that accurate targeting info can be provided today to the driver, giving a single pass across a convoy. The GAU-8 is a great incentiviser to lower heads below planet earth.
Last edited by fdr; 17th Jul 2022 at 08:07.
That's the Germans. Poland alone has supplied hundreds of tanks.
Increased production ? I'm sure it has already happened at company level as they update sales/production budgets.
Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 17th Jul 2022 at 10:03.
There are hundreds of armoured vehicles stored in Germany: not necessarily with the Bundeswehr but certainly with KMW and Rheinmetall. The latter has been waiting for months for government approval to supply Leopard 1 . The 50 Gepard Flakpanzer stored at KMW are due for delivery during July.
Since the corruption exists from top to bottom it'd be surprising if VVS wasn't just as bad. You need a lot of V&A equipment and supplies to operate combat aircraft, and I'd guess quite a lot is either never delivered or is stolen.