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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:20
  #10081 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
If my interpretation of the upper wind forecasts [and particularly the lower-uppers] such as 5000ft is correct, any demonstration of a TNW over the Black Sea might make Turkey very cross indeed.
However, my seaweed is withered, the crystal balls have dropped off and the pine cones burned to keep me warm.
Very little fallout from an airburst though, they are all flash and bang.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:20
  #10082 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you LB. I hope the Kremlin seaweed is still fresh, and saying ĎDonít be stupidí.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:33
  #10083 (permalink)  
 
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what's the lowest possible way a tactical nuke could be set off, just to say "we've done it and can do it again". I'm thinking subsea, perhaps near an oil pipeline?
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:34
  #10084 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Very little fallout from an airburst though, they are all flash and bang.
Do we think the Russkies can manage an attempted airburst height accurately, after the observed state of their conventional forces? And would Turkey and Greece find "only an airburst" tolerable?

Besides that, everyone who matters in Russia knows they are winning, especially sitting near a 6th floor window.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:38
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Not a happy bunch.

"Believe this is the 222nd MRB from occupied Luhansk. 193 left alive from their Battalion. Havenít been paid for months, no food and are stuck just outside the Feb 24th borders in Luhansk because the military wonít let them home. Some have been standing around there for 4 days."

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Old 4th Oct 2022, 19:41
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Originally Posted by arf23
what's the lowest possible way a tactical nuke could be set off, just to say "we've done it and can do it again". I'm thinking subsea, perhaps near an oil pipeline?
St Basil?
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:11
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Russian warcrimes. Echos of Buchenwald, Auschwitz, Sobibor.
What next, glasses and hairs? Nurnberg needs to be revisited after all this.


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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:23
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Orcs indeed.

Evil writ large.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:24
  #10089 (permalink)  
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Crimeans, which of course have taken the Russian passport and who had been fleeing to Kazakhstan in order to avoid mobilization, (re-)apply for the Ukrainian citizenship.

That's going to awkward, for both sidesÖ..
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:47
  #10090 (permalink)  
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Forbes Russia: 700,000 people have left Russia since mobilization began.

Forbes Russia cited sources close to Russia's Presidential Administration.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of conscripts for the war against Ukraine on Sept. 21Ö.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:53
  #10091 (permalink)  
 
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:55
  #10092 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Do we think the Russkies can manage an attempted airburst height accurately, after the observed state of their conventional forces? And would Turkey and Greece find "only an airburst" tolerable?

Besides that, everyone who matters in Russia knows they are winning, especially sitting near a 6th floor window.
I doubt Greece would barely notice. The Black Sea is big and a TNW does not have to be that big, remember the intended target. Those who would notice iare all the ac transiting the S half of the Black Sea if they were not warned.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 20:56
  #10093 (permalink)  
 
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Expanding on the Tweets above:

"A terrible torture chamber in the liberated village of Pisky-Radkivski. The police know about burying/digging into the ground alive, using a gas mask with a smoldering rag. A dildo, a box with torn dentures, wires with ropes and a letter with an interview of one of the men were found."

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Old 4th Oct 2022, 21:14
  #10094 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I doubt Greece would barely notice. The Black Sea is big and a TNW does not have to be that big, remember the intended target. Those who would notice iare all the ac transiting the S half of the Black Sea if they were not warned.
Well, Putins pad is at Sochi, isn’t that on the Black Sea coast? I would doubt he would piss on his own fire.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 21:47
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well, Putins pad is at Sochi, isnít that on the Black Sea coast? I would doubt he would piss on his own fire.
Yes, its on the Black Sea Coast, but is actually not really near Sochi, its much further north and only about 40km south of Novorossiysk.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 21:48
  #10096 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well, Putins pad is at Sochi, isnít that on the Black Sea coast? I would doubt he would piss on his own fire.
Again, 10kt airburst 50 km off the coast?
Fireball radius 150m, radiation radius (500 rem) 1.05 km, moderate blast damage up to 7km, thermal radiation, 3rd degree burns up to 7.3km, light blast damage up to 4.3km. Probably would not even rattle Putin's windows.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 22:03
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So much for Iranian drones, Ukraine managed to hack into its controls and land it in Ukraine complete with its bomb load

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Old 4th Oct 2022, 22:03
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Again, 10kt airburst 50 km off the coast?
Fireball radius 150m, radiation radius (500 rem) 1.05 km, moderate blast damage up to 7km, thermal radiation, 3rd degree burns up to 7.3km, light blast damage up to 4.3km. Probably would not even rattle Putin's windows.
If he uses a TNW, then somebody will do more than rattle his windows.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 22:15
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"Russian IFV hit with Javelin while rescuing crew of another damaged IFV, Donbas Region."

Spot the second ATGM near miss at 1:51 (entering left of screen in the slowed down section of the clip).

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3


Last edited by Wokkafans; 4th Oct 2022 at 22:28.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 22:25
  #10100 (permalink)  
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Very interesting discussion with Yuri Felshtinsky about Russiaís war in Europe: How will it proceed? How will it end? Well worth 15 minutes.

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