Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The Ukrainian position is pretty understandable, they have every right to ask for that, and they also have every reason to be wary of any agreements that rely on the integrity of the Kremlin; recent history suggests that Gepetto has been working overtime in Tuscany....
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
Escalation
The cost to Russia to date has been considerable, escalation increases those losses and the outcome is if successful gaining ownership of a wrecked country, and having to wear the cone of shame for the next century. A bargain wrapped in a disaster, inside a catastrophe. The fight doesn't end with the takeover of the terrain, it only begins, and that risks the complete stability of the rest of Russia. Oooops.
Continuation
When on a bad bet, just keep laying down the further bets, as that has always worked at Vegas.... not. The cost to Russia in capital terms, resources, military capability, lives of their defence force, and in Rubles, on top of the cost to their economy as it collapses to levels of more than a decade ago is problematic to stability fo the federation. Not looking good at all.
Withdrawal to 2014 lines
The "love" expended on the Donbas and other locations by Russia won't be forgotten readily; the behaviour of the Russian army in the field doesn't lend itself to winning hearts and minds. Expect that a prolonged asymmetric war would ensure within the Donbas, and as the population is effectively homogeneous to Russia proper, that would end up at the home door step.
Withdrawal to pre-2014 lines
Of any specific concern that Russia has had was the matter of the Black Sea fleet. With the global warming situation, the Baltic and Northern fleets will become ice free 24/7/365 in the next decade, and it is possible that even Kamchatka will follow suit. Vladivostok is very close to ice free if not already, being kept open at worst by ice breakers. Within the Black sea area, Russia has a good port in Novorossiysk, which is completely ice free. Russia would still feel compromised by the Kerch waterway, which is their access to the Sea of Azov, the Don river and the major port of Rostov on Don. There is a possible opportunity to demilitarize completely Crimea and have it supported by a standing UN force, to ensure that no militarization arises from either side. The sad part is that Ukraine had entered into an agreement in the post 1991 condition to let Russia maintain access to the Black Sea fleet using Sevastopol as a base, and the action of Russia was to undermine that largesse in 2014.
Putin can pull success out of this on the home front as being the peace maker, which oddly is in the best interests of Russia. That is, Russia has a historic anxiety towards it's territory, and arguably uses that paranoia as a justification for it's appalling action to it's neighbors. The damage to the relationship of Russia with neighboring states is not in the interest of the Russian citizenry. Returning Russia to a position of international accord is important, unless we all want to revisit the best and worst of the Cold War. Did that, didn't like it so much. Russia needs to be resuscitated at some point, but it also needs to wind back the anxiety that is in their psyche, while having a bit of a belly button cogitation on what is in the interest of the public as far as graft and corruption is concerned. Re-nationalizing resources that were plundered in the aftermath of 1991 would be a good start. Giving the oligarchs a minor residual compensatory amount may smooth that sort of transition back to a normal market working for the masses. Energy wise, Russia needs to move away from being dependent on such resources, they have enough on hand to reset their economy to other alternatives.
Russia will need help on various matters by the global community to normalize their economy, and to deal with the festering problem of nuclear waste etc that has lost it's headline space in recent months but remains a present danger. Not much help will be forthcoming unless a comprehensive understanding can be achieved that resolves the Russian concerns, and any such agreement has to be robust enough to survive the recidivist history towards agreements that Russia has cataloged over a lone time line.
The kinetic character of warfare with current art munitions precludes an 30 year or 100 year war scenario, the expenditure and losses are of biblical proportions in the field, Russia is losing around a company a day, a couple of battalions a week, and Ukraine is suffering losses that are at the very least a substantial percentage of the Russian losses, on a historic attacker/defender ratio for a non-blizkreig event (Sitzkrieg 2.0?).
While Russia may consider it's interests lie in no less than a 2014 line of ceasefire, that may not be the most cost effective balance all up. The concept of cost/gain balance that was being taught pre 24 Feb 22 suggested there was no rational basis for the "Special Military Operation"; 6 months later, the glaring deficit in rationale has been reinforced by the global deterioration of the strategic position of Russia in the context of an "us v them" model. NATO has expanded considerably, the alliance is stronger for the threat that was imposed, and by any measure Russia has lost a very large proportion of it's forces, and shown severe deficiencies of their equipment, leadership, manpower, policies, procedures and practices in the field.
An exit strategy that doesn't provide for any territorial gain by Russia may seem unpalatable, but that can be made more attractive by action by the global community that may wish to improve global security while returning Russia to the international community. It is a shame to lose the richness of the arts and history of Russia due to the errors of a single individual who acted incautiously based on questionable intelligence as a consequence of his "manner" of management. Ukraine still needs to be remediated, the load of recovery will befall on the rest of the world one way of the other.
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
Escalation
The cost to Russia to date has been considerable, escalation increases those losses and the outcome is if successful gaining ownership of a wrecked country, and having to wear the cone of shame for the next century. A bargain wrapped in a disaster, inside a catastrophe. The fight doesn't end with the takeover of the terrain, it only begins, and that risks the complete stability of the rest of Russia. Oooops.
Continuation
When on a bad bet, just keep laying down the further bets, as that has always worked at Vegas.... not. The cost to Russia in capital terms, resources, military capability, lives of their defence force, and in Rubles, on top of the cost to their economy as it collapses to levels of more than a decade ago is problematic to stability fo the federation. Not looking good at all.
Withdrawal to 2014 lines
The "love" expended on the Donbas and other locations by Russia won't be forgotten readily; the behaviour of the Russian army in the field doesn't lend itself to winning hearts and minds. Expect that a prolonged asymmetric war would ensure within the Donbas, and as the population is effectively homogeneous to Russia proper, that would end up at the home door step.
Withdrawal to pre-2014 lines
Of any specific concern that Russia has had was the matter of the Black Sea fleet. With the global warming situation, the Baltic and Northern fleets will become ice free 24/7/365 in the next decade, and it is possible that even Kamchatka will follow suit. Vladivostok is very close to ice free if not already, being kept open at worst by ice breakers. Within the Black sea area, Russia has a good port in Novorossiysk, which is completely ice free. Russia would still feel compromised by the Kerch waterway, which is their access to the Sea of Azov, the Don river and the major port of Rostov on Don. There is a possible opportunity to demilitarize completely Crimea and have it supported by a standing UN force, to ensure that no militarization arises from either side. The sad part is that Ukraine had entered into an agreement in the post 1991 condition to let Russia maintain access to the Black Sea fleet using Sevastopol as a base, and the action of Russia was to undermine that largesse in 2014.
Putin can pull success out of this on the home front as being the peace maker, which oddly is in the best interests of Russia. That is, Russia has a historic anxiety towards it's territory, and arguably uses that paranoia as a justification for it's appalling action to it's neighbors. The damage to the relationship of Russia with neighboring states is not in the interest of the Russian citizenry. Returning Russia to a position of international accord is important, unless we all want to revisit the best and worst of the Cold War. Did that, didn't like it so much. Russia needs to be resuscitated at some point, but it also needs to wind back the anxiety that is in their psyche, while having a bit of a belly button cogitation on what is in the interest of the public as far as graft and corruption is concerned. Re-nationalizing resources that were plundered in the aftermath of 1991 would be a good start. Giving the oligarchs a minor residual compensatory amount may smooth that sort of transition back to a normal market working for the masses. Energy wise, Russia needs to move away from being dependent on such resources, they have enough on hand to reset their economy to other alternatives.
Russia will need help on various matters by the global community to normalize their economy, and to deal with the festering problem of nuclear waste etc that has lost it's headline space in recent months but remains a present danger. Not much help will be forthcoming unless a comprehensive understanding can be achieved that resolves the Russian concerns, and any such agreement has to be robust enough to survive the recidivist history towards agreements that Russia has cataloged over a lone time line.
The kinetic character of warfare with current art munitions precludes an 30 year or 100 year war scenario, the expenditure and losses are of biblical proportions in the field, Russia is losing around a company a day, a couple of battalions a week, and Ukraine is suffering losses that are at the very least a substantial percentage of the Russian losses, on a historic attacker/defender ratio for a non-blizkreig event (Sitzkrieg 2.0?).
While Russia may consider it's interests lie in no less than a 2014 line of ceasefire, that may not be the most cost effective balance all up. The concept of cost/gain balance that was being taught pre 24 Feb 22 suggested there was no rational basis for the "Special Military Operation"; 6 months later, the glaring deficit in rationale has been reinforced by the global deterioration of the strategic position of Russia in the context of an "us v them" model. NATO has expanded considerably, the alliance is stronger for the threat that was imposed, and by any measure Russia has lost a very large proportion of it's forces, and shown severe deficiencies of their equipment, leadership, manpower, policies, procedures and practices in the field.
An exit strategy that doesn't provide for any territorial gain by Russia may seem unpalatable, but that can be made more attractive by action by the global community that may wish to improve global security while returning Russia to the international community. It is a shame to lose the richness of the arts and history of Russia due to the errors of a single individual who acted incautiously based on questionable intelligence as a consequence of his "manner" of management. Ukraine still needs to be remediated, the load of recovery will befall on the rest of the world one way of the other.
Gentlemen, the enemy has four options.
He will choose the fifth.
He will choose the fifth.
I found this photo (probably from some printed aviation or army magazine) with Magic 2 under Slovakian Mig-29 wing. It must be quite an old photo because that particular Mig-29 per tail number was destroyed in a crash in November 2002.
This missile is supposedly made backwards compatible with the Sidewinder launch hardware so my question is how hard it is to put such hardware on soviet made fighter. Per Wiki Romanian AF uses them till today on their Mig-21 fighters.
Our Slovakian Migs are supposed to be transferred to Ukraine soon and I wonder how hard it is to adjust them to carry western made weapons especially HARM missiles which may play a role in expected oncoming offensive of Ukraine.
This missile is supposedly made backwards compatible with the Sidewinder launch hardware so my question is how hard it is to put such hardware on soviet made fighter. Per Wiki Romanian AF uses them till today on their Mig-21 fighters.
Our Slovakian Migs are supposed to be transferred to Ukraine soon and I wonder how hard it is to adjust them to carry western made weapons especially HARM missiles which may play a role in expected oncoming offensive of Ukraine.
Ain't that the truth?
"What level of risk are you willing to assume?"
If you want it to have highest reliability and best chance to work as desired, you'd need to do detailed systems integration testing and field trials - soup to nuts - so that the brain inside the aircraft and the brain inside the piece of ordnance don't get sidetracked by a variety of other signals and pulses that also use electricity.
"How hard" is on a sliding scale depending on what level or reliability you are interested in. Generally, it takes time and effort.
Why is this so important? You want it to work when the shooting starts.
As an example of getting this horribly wrong, the USN's Bureau of Ordnance (before WW II) didn't get it right with submarine launched torpedoes.
It wasn't until Lockwood took the bull by the horns, after the shooting had started, that it got sorted out. A few details from the wiki article on this, I read a book on him years ago when I was at sea and had the time...but the lesson was received. Get it right before you send them out to shoot the ordnance.
Spoiler
I found this photo (probably from some printed aviation or army magazine) with Magic 2 under Slovakian Mig-29 wing. It must be quite an old photo because that particular Mig-29 per tail number was destroyed in a crash in November 2002.
This missile is supposedly made backwards compatible with the Sidewinder launch hardware so my question is how hard it is to put such hardware on soviet made fighter. Per Wiki Romanian AF uses them till today on their Mig-21 fighters.
Our Slovakian Migs are supposed to be transferred to Ukraine soon and I wonder how hard it is to adjust them to carry western made weapons especially HARM missiles which may play a role in expected oncoming offensive of Ukraine.
This missile is supposedly made backwards compatible with the Sidewinder launch hardware so my question is how hard it is to put such hardware on soviet made fighter. Per Wiki Romanian AF uses them till today on their Mig-21 fighters.
Our Slovakian Migs are supposed to be transferred to Ukraine soon and I wonder how hard it is to adjust them to carry western made weapons especially HARM missiles which may play a role in expected oncoming offensive of Ukraine.
In the late 1950's, through China, the USSR was able to acquire an early model of AIM-9 Sidewinder. The Soviet Union reverse-engineered this example to produce its own AA-2 Atoll missile; copied to the extent that not only is it compatible with AIM-9 launching hardware but that the individual missile modules are themselves interchangeable.
If Magic was conceived as being backwards compatible with Sidewinder, it follows that a degree of 3-way Atoll/Sidewinder/Magic compatibility has been inherited.
I dont speak russian so cant confirm it but theres videos going around on social media of russians protesting with placards that have pictures of russian servicemen who have lost limbs in ukraine. Apparently they are begging US and UK to stop sending weapons to ukraine. Sound like a form of cognitive dissonance to me.
People so readily accept lies. I wish they would listen to BBC.
I don't know about the compatibility of Russian/Western ordnance in general, but Sidewinder/Magic is not an "in general" case.
In the late 1950's, through China, the USSR was able to acquire an early model of AIM-9 Sidewinder. The Soviet Union reverse-engineered this example to produce its own AA-2 Atoll missile; copied to the extent that not only is it compatible with AIM-9 launching hardware but that the individual missile modules are themselves interchangeable.
If Magic was conceived as being backwards compatible with Sidewinder, it follows that a degree of 3-way Atoll/Sidewinder/Magic compatibility has been inherited.
In the late 1950's, through China, the USSR was able to acquire an early model of AIM-9 Sidewinder. The Soviet Union reverse-engineered this example to produce its own AA-2 Atoll missile; copied to the extent that not only is it compatible with AIM-9 launching hardware but that the individual missile modules are themselves interchangeable.
If Magic was conceived as being backwards compatible with Sidewinder, it follows that a degree of 3-way Atoll/Sidewinder/Magic compatibility has been inherited.
The Ukrainian position is pretty understandable, they have every right to ask for that, and they also have every reason to be wary of any agreements that rely on the integrity of the Kremlin; recent history suggests that Gepetto has been working overtime in Tuscany....
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
Irrationality has brought them to where they are and I don't see the slightest sign of rationality suddenly kicking in. And I'm afraid meanwhile the problem is not only Putin any more. He has pushed the population (where a significant part were anyway feeling phantom pains for loss of the Soviet empire) so far in a direction that it will be very difficult to get himself out of the obligation to deliver. Any retreat will be seen as weakness and defeat by the people. Tyrants are typically overthrown when they are weak and compliant and not when they are strong and cruel. So, the better options for Russia are rather not the good options for Putin himself. That's why we will likely continue to see this tragedy for quite some time to come.
As long as they find enough mercenaries from remote regions (which are seen by the Moscovites and St Pete's anyway as villains/savages) and the war stays far away enough from these average Russians thwy will continue to believe in these lies (as they are convenient). Only when suddenly the neighbours sons will go to Ukraine and not come back in one piece people in Russia will start to see this as something different than a mere spectacle on TV. What surely hurts them most is the abysmal performance of the once dreaded Russian armed forces and the loss in glory caused by this. Ironically and sadly this will make a retreat even more difficult..
Last edited by henra; 18th Aug 2022 at 09:54.
Aviation content.
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As much as I like your analysis and conclusion and would love to see Russia going a rational approach and choosing alternative 4, I have major difficulties seeing this happening.
Irrationality has brought them to where they are and I don't see the slightest sign of rationality suddenly kicking in. And I'm afraid meanwhile the problem is not only Putin any more. He has pushed the population (where a significant part were anyway feeling phantom pains for loss of the Soviet empire) so far in a direction that it will be very difficult to get himself out of the obligation to deliver. Any retreat will be seen as weakness and defeat by the people. Tyrants are typically overthrown when they are weak and compliant and not when they are strong and cruel. So, the better options for Russia are rather not the good options for Putin himself. That's why we will likely continue to see this tragedy for quite some time to come.
Irrationality has brought them to where they are and I don't see the slightest sign of rationality suddenly kicking in. And I'm afraid meanwhile the problem is not only Putin any more. He has pushed the population (where a significant part were anyway feeling phantom pains for loss of the Soviet empire) so far in a direction that it will be very difficult to get himself out of the obligation to deliver. Any retreat will be seen as weakness and defeat by the people. Tyrants are typically overthrown when they are weak and compliant and not when they are strong and cruel. So, the better options for Russia are rather not the good options for Putin himself. That's why we will likely continue to see this tragedy for quite some time to come.
Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Aug 2022 at 23:20.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russia pulls military aircraft out of Crimea
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that no less than 24 planes and 14 helicopters had been transferred out of airfields in Crimea.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that no less than 24 planes and 14 helicopters had been transferred out of airfields in Crimea.
According to a utuber the very busy looking flight radar map of USA shows 400 military aircraft airborne over USA.
50% above normal busy.
Blackhawks in flocks of twenty, submarine hunters doing search patterns in the desert.
Mjb
50% above normal busy.
Blackhawks in flocks of twenty, submarine hunters doing search patterns in the desert.
Mjb
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surely if you knew you could hold it there would be no need to evacuate them.
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I wonder how many are stolen?
The other team gets a vote, and assuredly will do something that will surprise. The logical choices remain the same, the illogical choices are up to the players to select. The spectrum from smoking ruin to sending flowers. The national interest however is more specific in the options.
We are seeing a bunch of crazies messing about with a NPP that can cause as much or more devastation to their own team as to anyone else, so, yup, Door #5 is always in play.
If the Russians transferred these aircraft over to the Ukrainians it would avoid a lot of anxiety, and probably prolong the life of the airframes.
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They really are not the brightest military in the world.
They really are not the brightest military in the world.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...17046413742080
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...84173731586050
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...17046413742080
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...84173731586050
OTOH, would be nice that they don't realise that they are geolocating themselves, so perhaps a great thing to not mention. the more snaps followed by suggestions to vacate the premises, the sooner balance will return to the rock.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. He served with the Feodosia-based 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment and fought in southern Ukraine for two months. A thread follows.
Filatyev was part of the force that captured Kherson in February and was hospitalised with an eye injury after spending more than a month under heavy Ukrainian artillery bombardment near Mykolaiv. By that time, he was completely disillusioned with the war.
While recuperating, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.
In this first installment, I'll cover FIlatyev's experiences in the six months before the war, when he was going through training as a paratrooper in Crimea with the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment. It was not a happy experience for him.…..
Filatyev was part of the force that captured Kherson in February and was hospitalised with an eye injury after spending more than a month under heavy Ukrainian artillery bombardment near Mykolaiv. By that time, he was completely disillusioned with the war.
While recuperating, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.
In this first installment, I'll cover FIlatyev's experiences in the six months before the war, when he was going through training as a paratrooper in Crimea with the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment. It was not a happy experience for him.…..
Last edited by T28B; 18th Aug 2022 at 12:44. Reason: proper attribution and quoting of source