Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/en...ffense-part-i/
ENDING THE IDEOLOGY OF THE OFFENSE, PART I
…..The ongoing war in Ukraine has shown that indications and warnings are a risky gauge on which to base decisions about the flow of forces into a theater. For Russia, whose deployment distance is stepping across a border, while the United States must cross an ocean and all of Western Europe, it is especially fraught. The Chinese advantage of proximity similarly creates challenges in defending Taiwan and elsewhere in the region.
These realities, coupled with the ever-growing threat to air bases and seaports from long-range precision fires, only complicate the getting-to-the-fight challenge. Even if there is sufficient warning, as there was in Ukraine this February, deployment could be stalled because of trepidations over fears of escalation or provoking enemy aggression.
What is needed as a first step in establishing regional deterrence in the Pacific and Europe is an assessment of what bare minimum has to be in place before a crisis to assure partners and allies that the coalition can credibly deter. This will include allied contributions, so the demand on U.S. forces will be less than shouldering the entire burden. If what is in place is not sufficient for the plan, it will likely not get there before the onset of hostilities….
Ironically, all the technologies that have been and are being developed for rapid, decisive offensive operations turn out to be even more formidable in the defense. They deny our adversaries surprise and enable us to dispose our forces where they can most effectively defend against attack. Consequently, as Alex Vershinin notes: “Emerging technologies in the fields of network, artificial intelligence, and space are shifting the balance back to defenses.” He continues by stating that the United States may have missed this shift and that the consequences are significant: “Unable to fight a short decapitation campaign, the United States may be forced into a prolonged attrition campaign, at unacceptable political costs.”
In the next part of this essay, I will turn to how the war in Ukraine can help the Department of Defense better understand the ascendance of the defense, so it can better prepare for the military problems it faces now and in the future.
ENDING THE IDEOLOGY OF THE OFFENSE, PART I
…..The ongoing war in Ukraine has shown that indications and warnings are a risky gauge on which to base decisions about the flow of forces into a theater. For Russia, whose deployment distance is stepping across a border, while the United States must cross an ocean and all of Western Europe, it is especially fraught. The Chinese advantage of proximity similarly creates challenges in defending Taiwan and elsewhere in the region.
These realities, coupled with the ever-growing threat to air bases and seaports from long-range precision fires, only complicate the getting-to-the-fight challenge. Even if there is sufficient warning, as there was in Ukraine this February, deployment could be stalled because of trepidations over fears of escalation or provoking enemy aggression.
What is needed as a first step in establishing regional deterrence in the Pacific and Europe is an assessment of what bare minimum has to be in place before a crisis to assure partners and allies that the coalition can credibly deter. This will include allied contributions, so the demand on U.S. forces will be less than shouldering the entire burden. If what is in place is not sufficient for the plan, it will likely not get there before the onset of hostilities….
Ironically, all the technologies that have been and are being developed for rapid, decisive offensive operations turn out to be even more formidable in the defense. They deny our adversaries surprise and enable us to dispose our forces where they can most effectively defend against attack. Consequently, as Alex Vershinin notes: “Emerging technologies in the fields of network, artificial intelligence, and space are shifting the balance back to defenses.” He continues by stating that the United States may have missed this shift and that the consequences are significant: “Unable to fight a short decapitation campaign, the United States may be forced into a prolonged attrition campaign, at unacceptable political costs.”
In the next part of this essay, I will turn to how the war in Ukraine can help the Department of Defense better understand the ascendance of the defense, so it can better prepare for the military problems it faces now and in the future.
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This is worrying, and might result in a regime change in Belarus? as I hate to think of the repercussions. I wonder if this is why the radar was taken out.
He probably did at one time. They fare as well as (worse actually) those who spoke truth to our most recent former president.
This is worrying, and might result in a regime change in Belarus? as I hate to think of the repercussions. I wonder if this is why the radar was taken out.
https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/statu...66401860440066
https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/statu...66401860440066
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
What's the significance of today's explosions in Russian-occupied Crimea, and could it potentially be even more significant than the HIMARS attack on a Russian ammunition train two weeks ago?
Last edited by ORAC; 16th Aug 2022 at 06:47.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-08-16/
Russia's Black Sea fleet struggling with effective sea control, UK says
Aug 16 (Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is currently struggling to exercise effective sea control, with patrols generally limited to the waters within sight of the Crimean coast.
The Black Sea Fleet continues to use long-range cruise missiles to support ground offensives but is keeping a defensive posture, the British Defence Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin…
The Black Sea Fleet's currently limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy, in part because the amphibious threat to Odesa has now been largely neutralised, the intelligence update added.
Russia's Black Sea fleet struggling with effective sea control, UK says
Aug 16 (Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is currently struggling to exercise effective sea control, with patrols generally limited to the waters within sight of the Crimean coast.
The Black Sea Fleet continues to use long-range cruise missiles to support ground offensives but is keeping a defensive posture, the British Defence Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin…
The Black Sea Fleet's currently limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy, in part because the amphibious threat to Odesa has now been largely neutralised, the intelligence update added.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
“At a press briefing Monday, following his meeting with President Volodymer Zelensky in Kyiv, Defence Secretary Austin said the United States just shipped five battalions of 155mm howitzers and their munitions to beef up Ukraine’s long-range fires.
He expected allies to do likewise in the coming days.”….
He expected allies to do likewise in the coming days.”….
Prof. Stephen Kotkin on Stalin/Putin
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Further attacks near Dzhankoy, Crimea. Or maybe it's a carelessly discarded cigarette...
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Do they run diesel loco's in Crimea, if not the substations make a lot of sense.
More on the rail lines mentioned above
What was in the ammo dump hit..
More on the rail lines mentioned above
What was in the ammo dump hit..
Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Aug 2022 at 09:55.
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I have seen some speculation that the crimea dump just destroyed may have been extra well stocked and congested since Ukraine destroyed the rail bridge to Melitopol a few days ago. It would make sense that this place also supplied that area. A clever move.
You can see from recent video Nutty posted that it is not exactly a secure place to store ammo.
You can see from recent video Nutty posted that it is not exactly a secure place to store ammo.
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More on the 400's in Belarus.
How Many Artillery Shells Does Russia Have Left?
https://youtu.be/QcUcp0oHTuoRU won´t run out of arty shells any time soon. More like arty barrels and the logistics moving ammo are limiting factors.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.politico.eu/article/esto...war-monuments/
Estonia removes Soviet Union war monuments
Due to ‘increasing tensions … we must act quickly to ensure public order and internal security,” says PM Kaja Kallas.
Estonia removes Soviet Union war monuments
Due to ‘increasing tensions … we must act quickly to ensure public order and internal security,” says PM Kaja Kallas.
" Now, there are up to 14 units of Triumpf surface-to-air missile systems. @MotolkoHelp suggests Russia is preparing for a massive missile strike on Ukraine in the coming weeks. "
This makes no sense. This is their most sophisticated SAM system in the field ( S 500 only in Moscow ) and they are not going to be using these missiles as ground/ground as they have done with older SAM when running short of dedicated ground/ground precision missiles. In what other way can a SAM be used in preparation for a massive missile strike ?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian media report of a new airbase fire in Crimea today, this time on the military air-field at Hvardeyskye (Gvardeyskoe). It housed 12 SU-24М and 12 SU-25СМ planes and was integrated with the Russian Navy.
https://t.me/kommersant/37638
https://t.me/kommersant/37638
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This makes no sense. This is their most sophisticated SAM system in the field ( S 500 only in Moscow ) and they are not going to be using these missiles as ground/ground as they have done with older SAM when running short of dedicated ground/ground precision missiles. In what other way can a SAM be used in preparation for a massive missile strike ?