Originally Posted by
ORAC
Reference reports unnamed senior people within the Kremlin want to negotiate a “deal” to end the war - doubtless the source of the suggestions of giving up Ukrainian territory for “peace” - and doubtless removal of sanctions…
The united allied position is that the decision is up to Ukraine and they will back their decision 100%. President Zelenskyy has replied…
@ZelenskyyUa
"For us, to live without freedom is not to live. To be dependent is not to be. Therefore, we will not give up until we drive the last occupier out of our home. And we will not stop until we liberate the last meter of Ukrainian land."
The Ukrainian position is pretty understandable, they have every right to ask for that, and they also have every reason to be wary of any agreements that rely on the integrity of the Kremlin; recent history suggests that Gepetto has been working overtime in Tuscany....
The Russians have a number of options, and most are not desirable.
1. They can escalate;
2. They can continue with the current master plan...;
3. They can conduct a partial withdrawal to 2014 lines;
4. They can conduct a full withdrawal to pre 2014 lines.
Escalation
The cost to Russia to date has been considerable, escalation increases those losses and the outcome is if successful gaining ownership of a wrecked country, and having to wear the cone of shame for the next century. A bargain wrapped in a disaster, inside a catastrophe. The fight doesn't end with the takeover of the terrain, it only begins, and that risks the complete stability of the rest of Russia. Oooops.
Continuation
When on a bad bet, just keep laying down the further bets, as that has always worked at Vegas.... not. The cost to Russia in capital terms, resources, military capability, lives of their defence force, and in Rubles, on top of the cost to their economy as it collapses to levels of more than a decade ago is problematic to stability fo the federation. Not looking good at all.
Withdrawal to 2014 lines
The "love" expended on the Donbas and other locations by Russia won't be forgotten readily; the behaviour of the Russian army in the field doesn't lend itself to winning hearts and minds. Expect that a prolonged asymmetric war would ensure within the Donbas, and as the population is effectively homogeneous to Russia proper, that would end up at the home door step.
Withdrawal to pre-2014 lines
Of any specific concern that Russia has had was the matter of the Black Sea fleet. With the global warming situation, the Baltic and Northern fleets will become ice free 24/7/365 in the next decade, and it is possible that even Kamchatka will follow suit. Vladivostok is very close to ice free if not already, being kept open at worst by ice breakers. Within the Black sea area, Russia has a good port in Novorossiysk, which is completely ice free. Russia would still feel compromised by the Kerch waterway, which is their access to the Sea of Azov, the Don river and the major port of Rostov on Don. There is a possible opportunity to demilitarize completely Crimea and have it supported by a standing UN force, to ensure that no militarization arises from either side. The sad part is that Ukraine had entered into an agreement in the post 1991 condition to let Russia maintain access to the Black Sea fleet using Sevastopol as a base, and the action of Russia was to undermine that largesse in 2014.
Putin can pull success out of this on the home front as being the peace maker, which oddly is in the best interests of Russia. That is, Russia has a historic anxiety towards it's territory, and arguably uses that paranoia as a justification for it's appalling action to it's neighbors. The damage to the relationship of Russia with neighboring states is not in the interest of the Russian citizenry. Returning Russia to a position of international accord is important, unless we all want to revisit the best and worst of the Cold War. Did that, didn't like it so much. Russia needs to be resuscitated at some point, but it also needs to wind back the anxiety that is in their psyche, while having a bit of a belly button cogitation on what is in the interest of the public as far as graft and corruption is concerned. Re-nationalizing resources that were plundered in the aftermath of 1991 would be a good start. Giving the oligarchs a minor residual compensatory amount may smooth that sort of transition back to a normal market working for the masses. Energy wise, Russia needs to move away from being dependent on such resources, they have enough on hand to reset their economy to other alternatives.
Russia will need help on various matters by the global community to normalize their economy, and to deal with the festering problem of nuclear waste etc that has lost it's headline space in recent months but remains a present danger. Not much help will be forthcoming unless a comprehensive understanding can be achieved that resolves the Russian concerns, and any such agreement has to be robust enough to survive the recidivist history towards agreements that Russia has cataloged over a lone time line.
The kinetic character of warfare with current art munitions precludes an 30 year or 100 year war scenario, the expenditure and losses are of biblical proportions in the field, Russia is losing around a company a day, a couple of battalions a week, and Ukraine is suffering losses that are at the very least a substantial percentage of the Russian losses, on a historic attacker/defender ratio for a non-blizkreig event (Sitzkrieg 2.0?).
While Russia may consider it's interests lie in no less than a 2014 line of ceasefire, that may not be the most cost effective balance all up. The concept of cost/gain balance that was being taught pre 24 Feb 22 suggested there was no rational basis for the "Special Military Operation"; 6 months later, the glaring deficit in rationale has been reinforced by the global deterioration of the strategic position of Russia in the context of an "us v them" model. NATO has expanded considerably, the alliance is stronger for the threat that was imposed, and by any measure Russia has lost a very large proportion of it's forces, and shown severe deficiencies of their equipment, leadership, manpower, policies, procedures and practices in the field.
An exit strategy that doesn't provide for any territorial gain by Russia may seem unpalatable, but that can be made more attractive by action by the global community that may wish to improve global security while returning Russia to the international community. It is a shame to lose the richness of the arts and history of Russia due to the errors of a single individual who acted incautiously based on questionable intelligence as a consequence of his "manner" of management. Ukraine still needs to be remediated, the load of recovery will befall on the rest of the world one way of the other.