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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Aug 2022, 04:58
  #8281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
Its easy for anyone to tell that this is a fake photo. The frame is too straight. Everything seems to be correctly attached. Couldn’t possibly be of Russian origin. If the UKR. had this equipment, they would be knocking aircraft down, perhaps using innovative modifications to enhance its range and accuracy.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 07:52
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Names starting to be given in Albanian incident…



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Old 21st Aug 2022, 09:08
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Ukrainians at NATO Apache / Blackhawk base?

https://twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/...07606898085888
IF this is true will Ukraine be also getting more air assets in general?
While Apache and A10 are good aircraft I wouldn't want to deploy them without ECM suppression and air cover.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 09:11
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Originally Posted by uxb99 View Post
IF this is true will Ukraine be also getting more air assets in general?
While Apache and A10 are good aircraft I wouldn't want to deploy them without ECM suppression and air cover.
Imagine blackhawks would absolutely be on the cards, A-10's, do we hate them that much ?

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Old 21st Aug 2022, 09:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Names starting to be given in Albanian incident…
from the link
This can all be an innocent collection of well-funded hobbyist photographers traveling around the world (together) and blogging. Or it could be a very good cover for intelligence. We'll find out one way or another very soon. More tomorrow, for sure.
Oddly I am a photographer too as a hobby, but I never carry an unidentified liquid to spray in the faces of the odd armed guards, sufficient to hospitalise them, that I might meet at ammunition depots I am breaking into..
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 09:47
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Originally Posted by uxb99 View Post
IF this is true will Ukraine be also getting more air assets in general?
While Apache and A10 are good aircraft I wouldn't want to deploy them without ECM suppression and air cover.
my thoughts exactly. If Apaches/A10's/whatever are covering the ground troops, who will be covering the Apaches? Not the ten or so Mig29's from Slovakia? And while there might be some vipers and hornets available who'd be flying those? And with which weaponry?
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 10:21
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav View Post
Its easy for anyone to tell that this is a fake photo. The frame is too straight. Everything seems to be correctly attached. Couldn’t possibly be of Russian origin. If the UKR. had this equipment, they would be knocking aircraft down, perhaps using innovative modifications to enhance its range and accuracy.
Have the nagging feeling that something is missing....








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Old 21st Aug 2022, 11:10
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
.... A-10's, do we hate them that much ?
Do we.... hate... who? The A-10's or the Gang that couldn't shoot straight? The A-10 is still an impressive machine, and the SAM/AAA threat is there, but then the Ukranians know how to fly low nowadays. The SU-25 has done OK so far, and they are not being flown that low. Might want more flares than fuel but still the GAU-8 is a fashion statement. With good spotting, it may just surprise a few of those calling for it's retirement. Not going to get them all back in one piece, but they may just surprise on what they can do. They are going to survive longer than a Viper, and do more harm to the visitors.

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Old 21st Aug 2022, 11:20
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Well according to this Ukrainian jets hit Ivanivka which his half way between Kherson and Mariupol which seems to indicate the air threat and defences have diminished of late.

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Old 21st Aug 2022, 11:24
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They have also used another Excalibur to take out a counter battery radar.


from link

Replying to
@noclador
To clarify: • 1st an airburst Excalibur • 2nd a first SMArt submunition • 3rd to 5th standard projectiles in super quick mode • 6th the second SMArt submunition In total five projectiles were fired. The nearly simultaneous impacts make this definitely the work of a PzH 2000.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 13:15
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“IT BEGINS: Jason Jay Smart @officejjsmart reports on a fire at a RU military draft office in the Tver region. Disaffection with Putin’s war is spreading”…..
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 15:30
  #8292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Imagine blackhawks would absolutely be on the cards, A-10's, do we hate them that much ?
The reason I mention A10's is because there have been several twitters that are implying that Ukrainian pilots are being trained on them?
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 17:13
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Shades of the Spanish Civil War

We are seeing newer weapons and tactics put to the test. ME unpleasantries have tended to be asymmetric.

USAF has long wanted to get rid of the A-10. Ukraine may be useful in this regard. In any case, we'll learn how the A-10 fares in a contested battle space. With all the drones up and about, many armed, one wonders how the engines will fare if they swallow one.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 17:44
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It’s trust, you get the feeling the west started off small and as they found they could trust Ukraine they have slowly started to up the ante kit-wise.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 18:52
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
That is a risk, oddly similar to the consequential risk of firing PGM's at a sovereign nation, murdering unarmed civilians, using CBU's, indiscriminate area attacks of non military targets, generally doing the mayhem and destruction that passes within Russia as "help".

Here's the thing though, a cynic would not put it past the GRU, or FSB to have done this, in order to give a justification for Putin to start getting some Moscuvies and St Pete's finest youngsters to join the gang that couldn't shoot straight. I would rate that at the highest level of probability, somewhere lower would be a vehicle defect, and well below that any action by SBU.

Ask the question, "cui bono?"

Ukraine to date has acted with restraint and care, this has all the hallmarks of the gang that couldn't shoot straight, the guys who in 1999 probably bombed 2 of their own apartment blocks to give a justification to give power to.... Putin!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...tment_bombings

The facts of the matter remain that she is no more, Russia remains an invading country, and the #200's and #300's continue to add up back home in the predominately poor and eurasian ethnic areas of the Federation. How long until the usury by Moscow and St Petes becomes intolerable to the ethnic groups that have been the recipient of the care that Putin has brought about? The last time imperialism was this confronting in Russia it ended with a bit of a tiff, from 1917 onwards to 1924, and then on and off through to 1991.

My money is on this being an inside job, and making a point to Putin or from Putin, using the FSB/GRU. It is in keeping with a country that loves Novachok, Polonium, shooting native reporters etc.

Nutloose comments that the traffic was stopped they sw[a]pped cars before the blast.... that pretty much points to the FSB/GRU more than any spec ops from the SW. A message from Putin or to Putin, time will tell.
A perceptive evaluation.
There is certainly a body of opinion that Putin is mainly the mouthpiece for those who really rule Russia.
In that case, taking out one of his close associates (or one of those person's family), would be the classic way to indicate dissatisfaction.
To me, that is too complicated, it is simpler to attribute this to a foreign intelligence service, although the Herrhausen assassination, attributed to the Red Army Faction, was quite similar.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 19:09
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Originally Posted by uxb99 View Post
The reason I mention A10's is because there have been several twitters that are implying that Ukrainian pilots are being trained on them?
Sorry.
I don't swallow this.
There are enough people here, surely (!!) far more knowlegeable than I who know just how long it takes to convert a pilot onto a completely strange type and get him combat proficient.
I struggle to believe that resource-poor Ukraine has sufficient combat capable pilots swilling around unused that they can afford to spare a cadre to transition onto aircraft of totally unfamiliar type and philosophy and get them combat ready in any useful timeframe. I know training barriers are being unlearned double/treble -quick with their highly motivated gunners and infantry but can the same be done with an A10? Even their Frogfoot guys (should they have many left, which surely they don't) are going to take many months to be even barely credible in role?

This all sounds highly unlikely to me - or am I being pessimistic?

Please, shoot me down in flames. I'd welcome such an answer.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 19:18
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
To me, that is too complicated, it is simpler to attribute this to a foreign intelligence service, although the Herrhausen assassination, attributed to the Red Army Faction, was quite similar.
"Attriubuted to " ? Are you implying doubt ( not that it's of any import )? From memory i don't recall if any RAF member admitted to this, but one of the recruits was the daughter of a close friend /colleague and was IIRC, have supposed to have got details of Herrhausen's schedule/routine.

Similar in which way? There were explosives and a car, but that's pretty much it, isn't it ? Herrhausen's assassination was considerably more technical, at least as far as current known facts reveal.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 19:24
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
Sorry.

This all sounds highly unlikely to me - or am I being pessimistic?

Please, shoot me down in flames. I'd welcome such an answer.
I followed a link from one of these forums to a TIME article that described how Ukrainian pilots are taking privately-financed simulator training somewhere in the USA. The Ukr AF selected the pilots, and when the reporter visited there were five "under instruction": This is being done as a way to compress the time needed to get the A10's operational if the all-clear is given: Real training obviously has to follow.
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 19:48
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They would prefer F-16s, but it depend what the DoD is willing to give them - and they have 30 pilots available for training.

Assuming they started with 3 pilots per aircraft to allow for briefing, debriefing, sleep etc whilst keeping the aircraft on state - then every aircraft lost will have freed up between 2 or 3 pilots, depending if the pilot flying managed to eject or not.

https://www.airforcemag.com/ukraine-...-not-the-a-10/
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 21:12
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Pity the numbers of the DefendTex D40 Loitering Munitions will be so limited, because them + taiwanese revolver drone would be your own little drownswawm in your pocket

https://dronesvision.com/download/Dr...lver%20860.pdf + https://www.defendtex.com/wp-content...eet_scaled.jpg = interesting combo

Also Nationalist republican army (NRA lol) have claimed responsibilty for the assisination


We, Russian activists, military, and politicians, now partisans and fighters of the National Republican Army, outlaw warmongers, robbers, and oppressors of the peoples of Russia!

We declare President Putin an usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death. Poverty and coffins for some, palaces for others, the essence of politicians.

We believe that disenfranchised people have the right to rebel against the tyrants. Putin will be deposed and destroyed by us!

Our goal is stop the destruction of Russia and its neighbors, to stop the activities of a handful of Kremlin businessmen who suck at the wealth of our people and commit crimes today inside and outside the country.

We declare the officials of the Government of the Russian Federation and regional administrations to be accomplices of the usurper - those who do not resign their powers will be destroyed by us.

Last edited by rattman; 21st Aug 2022 at 22:18.
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