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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 18th Aug 2022, 07:22
  #8121 (permalink)  
 
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Just reading today's MOD Intelligence Update.

" It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements or it being left off entirely."

A bit puzzling when it talks of maintenance: what maintenance would there be ? As for "leaving it off ", am I likely to be right in guessing that the tanks are delivered without the ERA and this is then fitted either at some base depot , or by the actual crews themselves ?
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 07:32
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They really are not the brightest military in the world.
According to the Kyiv Post, the attack on the Lysychansk HQ may have killed up to 100 Russian officers and the same number for the Wagner HQ in Popasna.

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war...n-attacks.html

Also from The Guardian:

" Russia appoints new Black Sea commander. Russia has reportedly replaced the commander of its Crimea-based Black Sea fleet after explosions rocked the peninsula this week.

Russia’s RIA news agency cited sources as saying Admiral Igor Osipov had been replaced with Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

If confirmed, it would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official in the war so far."

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 18th Aug 2022 at 08:31.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 08:35
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
...Admiral Igor Osipov had been replaced with Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov. If confirmed, it would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official in the war so far."
Does Wiktor have a good retirement plan I wonder. Speaking of which, whatever happened to General Creosote? Command may be a lonely post, but at least in Russia it is mercifully brief.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 09:30
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Just reading today's MOD Intelligence Update.

" It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements or it being left off entirely."

A bit puzzling when it talks of maintenance: what maintenance would there be ? As for "leaving it off ", am I likely to be right in guessing that the tanks are delivered without the ERA and this is then fitted either at some base depot , or by the actual crews themselves ?
Some added more, you can often see knocked out tanks where they have been scavenged for the blocks, I do wonder about the ineffectivness on some is simply down to the wooden and rubber blocks fitted in some of them by those making a quick buck back home.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 09:44
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A message from Ukraine before winter sets in an the Russian PR campaign about energy starts..

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Old 18th Aug 2022, 10:03
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Film showing the Dam bridge still in use and "heavy Vehicles" on it, though the military truck shown is coming towards the camera from this side of the damage, so could be staged, i.e reverse up to it then pretend to drive off it and the tanker seen could be empty, stripped down, or craned on to a good bit etc, as oddly the camera vehicle pans away and stays pointing away as it passes by. It looks like they have put large plates or slabs over some damage.

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Old 18th Aug 2022, 10:12
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by ORAC
A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. He served with the Feodosia-based 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment and fought in southern Ukraine for two months. A thread follows.

Filatyev was part of the force that captured Kherson in February and was hospitalised with an eye injury after spending more than a month under heavy Ukrainian artillery bombardment near Mykolaiv. By that time, he was completely disillusioned with the war.

While recuperating, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.

In this first installment, I'll cover FIlatyev's experiences in the six months before the war, when he was going through training as a paratrooper in Crimea with the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment. It was not a happy experience for him.…..
Thank you, ORAC.

Also reported here: ‘I don’t see justice in this war’: Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 10:35
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Some added more, you can often see knocked out tanks where they have been scavenged for the blocks, I do wonder about the ineffectivness on some is simply down to the wooden and rubber blocks fitted in some of them by those making a quick buck back home.
What a bunch of fwits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right . Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? How many ships and lives did that then cost us?

Does the MOD know nothing about OPSEC? Or are they now fighting for the Russians?

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Old 18th Aug 2022, 10:54
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Originally Posted by WB627
What a bunch of fwits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right . Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? ?
This is nothing like the fusing of the bombs where the necessary corrective order could be given by one general and it would be implemented by a small number of armourers (specialists). If just telling Russian squaddies not to do something had the desired effect, then their army would be much more effective in many ways. As it is, their obedience to orders is such that they continue to drink brake fluid and alcohol out of compasses/instruments, so any vague orders about ERA are not likely to have any effect.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 18th Aug 2022 at 11:19.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 11:11
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Australia cancels approval for new Russian embassy building.

Authorities in Canberra cited failure to meet construction deadlines as the reason for terminating the lease on a new building, though they said the full-scale invasion of Ukraine "did not help" Russia's case.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 12:21
  #8132 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Film showing the Dam bridge still in use and "heavy Vehicles" on it, though the military truck shown is coming towards the camera from this side of the damage, so could be staged, i.e reverse up to it then pretend to drive off it and the tanker seen could be empty, stripped down, or craned on to a good bit etc, as oddly the camera vehicle pans away and stays pointing away as it passes by. It looks like they have put large plates or slabs over some damage.

https://twitter.com/glosmeusec/statu...83086092107779
So... the dam there is actually a run of river design, it is not a flood or reservoir type.... The road way is elevated above the dam wall proper, the dam being earth, and gravity mix. On the southern side, there is a lock... that the single road crosses on a bridge. That would seem to be a choke point worthy of some precision, drop the bridge, take out the lock function without impacting the dam proper.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 12:35
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Interesting NYT profile of Selçuk Bayraktar (of TB2 fame): The Turkish Drone That Changed the Nature of Warfare

Good example of how to combine technical genius with political nous.
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 12:48
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Originally Posted by WB627
What a bunch of fwits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right . Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? How many ships and lives did that then cost us?

Does the MOD know nothing about OPSEC? Or are they now fighting for the Russians?
The Ukrainians published it on the web long before the MOD BTW

See

wooden replacements


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Old 18th Aug 2022, 12:58
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Originally Posted by fdr
So... the dam there is actually a run of river design, it is not a flood or reservoir type.... The road way is elevated above the dam wall proper, the dam being earth, and gravity mix. On the southern side, there is a lock... that the single road crosses on a bridge. That would seem to be a choke point worthy of some precision, drop the bridge, take out the lock function without impacting the dam proper.
See











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Old 18th Aug 2022, 14:33
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Possibly the first video of the American M982 Excalibur in action: as claimed, guided shells fired from a M777A2 howitzer were used in Kherson Oblast. Wow, just working down the line taking them out one shot at a time.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update...33483945099264
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 15:51
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NBC NEWS:

A Ukrainian military intelligence official tells @NBCNews that Russia has told its nuclear workers stationed at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant NOT to go to work tomorrow.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, tells me they received information a half-hour ago that Russia directed the Rosatom (Russia's state-run nuclear company) officials at ZNPP not to show up tomorrow.

This comes after Russia said Ukraine was planning a provocation tomorrow at the plant. Ukrainian officials believe that's Russia laying the groundwork to conduct a false flag operation there tomorrow and blame it on Ukraine….

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Old 18th Aug 2022, 15:55
  #8138 (permalink)  
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Russian SU-30SM RF-81771 down, unknown location


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Old 18th Aug 2022, 16:00
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Old 18th Aug 2022, 16:29
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Nutty, your M982 link requires an account unfortunately.
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