Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

Lonewolf you might find this of interest, China is courting the small island states and part of it is allowing the use of chinese police and military on the islands if requested.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61630963

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by MikeSnow

Not entirely on topic, if at all, but yes, the situation in Romania regarding freedom of the press is not very good either. Most of the media institutions, expecially the TV stations, are also controlled by the politicians in power. Still, Reporters sans frontières ranks freedom of the press in Hungary as 85th out of 180 countries, with a score of 59.8, significantly worse than Romania, ranked as 56th out of 180, with a score of 68.46.

And Greece came in at 108!

The difference is Serbia is not (yet) an EU country and can't veto the EU sanctions. But yes, I don't like Serbia's attitude regarding this conflict either. And, before being accused of prejudice again, I'm half Serb.​​​​

A country doesn't have to be in the EU to apply sanctions.

ETA: Fidesz did accuse Marki Zay of wanting to take Hungary into the war but then as the Brits found out a couple of years ago (courtesy of the Law courts) campaigning politicians do make claims that may, or may not be true!

[Timmy Tomkins]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.
The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it..

Agreed 100%, the shock at the stupidity of triumphalism and screwing Russia via the IMF when the Soviet Union collapsed is still with me. What a missed opportunity and it lead directly to what we have now.

[macmp419]

Originally Posted by henra

In all fairness it has to be said that the German Army doesn't even possess anything as modern and potent as these IRIS-T systems. They will have to be new manufactured and will not have been planned, e.g. Diehl BGT will have to aquire parts for producing and assembling these additional systems. Unlike some of the other Equipment sagas for Ukraine this delay is probably genuine.
On a positive note: Once Ukarine has these systems no enemy aircraft will survive within a radius of ~20miles. No matter which altitude. Extremely lethal.

Thank you for the explanation henra 👍

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I also cannot get over the Russians sense that they will never lose wars… they lost In Afghanistan big time.

Russia has lost or drawn in 37.5% of the wars and conflicts that they have been involved in since around 970 A.D. In the 3 largest wars, they were adversely affected by their own leaders, in 2 of those cases, the weather and hubris of the invaders led to the invaders defeat in or near Moscow in winter. In one of those wars, they had to sue for peace and then deal with the civil unrest that led to the overthrow of the Tsarist regime. The Afghan war didn't end well, and that was an elective choice by the Kremlin. In Chechnya, round 1, the RF forces were shredded, and then in round 2, started by RF deliberately destroying apartments in Moscow blamed on Chechnya, RF showed all the subtlety and self control of a asteroid impact. They didn't win much, they simply destroyed all that there was there, much as they have done in Mariupol. Russia seems bent on taking the NK's position of lowest on the social totem pole.

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.
The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it. (Yes, I burned the rejection slips in frustration).
The author's glib "go take Taiwan" line seems to overlook that a border crossing op (Russia/Ukraine) is a whole different animal than an amphibious landing. Anything beyond this probably belongs in the South China Sea Gathering Storm thread.

The piece is from an academic who strives to understand the big picture, without many important details such as you mention.

[peter we]

Remarkable difference in quality of videos and artillery accuracy between Russia and Ukraine

https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_te...vali-7652.html

[NutLoose]

Slovakia to build weaponary for Ukraine before for themselves, how awesome is that.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...rity-3184.html

Russia also lost an expensive UAV nr Odessa

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/expen...down-2771.html

..

[MAINJAFAD]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Russia also lost an expensive UAV nr Odessa

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/expen...down-2771.html

..

Yep, over a month ago!! Check dates before posting stuff Nutty!!!

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD

Yep, over a month ago!! Check dates before posting stuff Nutty!!!

To be fair while that link is a month old. South Air Command Public Relations Service (Odesa) claims to have shot down another one yesterday - 4 Jun. https://t.me/odesacityofficial/8276 or https://news.yahoo.com/expensive-rus...111015891.html

That would be the 3rd one claimed.
Interestingly despite being a much older design ( israeli licensed copy) the forpost seems to cost about twice as much as a a Bayraktar TB2. I wonder what the extra 2 million dollars is spent on.

[uxb99]

All these losses are academic without knowing how much stuff each side has.
Are there any figures for losses, re-supply, current inventory, current production?
The West is giving a lot of kit, well clearing out the back of their cupboards and getting rid of the old stuff. One wonders how much stuff the West has?
So when does the West run out and any similar figures for re-supply?

[beardy]

Originally Posted by uxb99

All these losses are academic without knowing how much stuff each side has.
Are their any figures for losses, re-supply, current inventory, current production?
The West is giving a lot of kit, well clearing out the back of their cupboards and getting rid of the old stuff. One wonders how much stuff the West has?
So when does the West run out and any similar figures for re-supply?

Much more important is how much equipment and manpower can either side afford to lose. Russia has other areas of interest that require resources and commitment, Ukraine doesn't, it is fighting for survival.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD

Yep, over a month ago!! Check dates before posting stuff Nutty!!!

The original post I had referred to the one yesterday but linked me to the post above.

[pasta]

Originally Posted by beardy

Much more important is how much equipment and manpower can either side afford to lose. Russia has other areas of interest that require resources and commitment, Ukraine doesn't, it is fighting for survival.

It could be argued that Putin is also fighting for survival at this stage. Just because those other Russian areas need resources and commitment, doesn't necessarily mean they'll get them; just look at the resources (not) being deployed to fight forest fires.

[NutLoose]

Well the long range artillery is gaining momentum,. Shame they may have got them for free though.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and...edia-3191.html

On June 1, 2022, the Belgian private company Flanders Technical Supply (FTS) delivered to Ukraine a stock of 64 M109A4 howitzers which had been purchased by the company from the Belgian army in 2015.


According to the Belgian Minister of Defense (MoD), the howitzers would have gone to Ukraine. The Belgian MoD had started discussions with FTS which apparently had already sold them.

When retired in 2008, the Belgian M109A2/A3 155 mm self-propelled howitzers have just been modernized to M109A4 BE standard through an “MLU M109 program” (Mid-life Update). So we can say that the Ukrainians will have the latest generation of M109 155 mm howitzers.

The M109 is an American-made 155 mm self-propelled howitzer based on a tracked armored chassis, first introduced in the early 1960s. It has been upgraded a number of times, most recently to the M109A7.

Another 60 Krab being bought from Poland

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and...edia-3157.html

[NutLoose]

When you see the state of some of the stuff Russia is trying to regenerate it gives you an idea of their losses.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...them-3173.html

meanwhile back in Germany

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and...aine-3144.html

At this rate Ukraine will be NATO compatible in short order equipment wise.

[beardy]

Originally Posted by pasta

It could be argued that Putin is also fighting for survival at this stage. Just because those other Russian areas need resources and commitment, doesn't necessarily mean they'll get them; just look at the resources (not) being deployed to fight forest fires.

Putin himself is not fighting, those fighting for him are probably not as well motivated as the Ukranians fighting for their homeland. If the Russians lose, they lose Putin, if the Ukrainians lose they lose their homeland, lives, wives, children etc.. . Hmm...

[NutLoose]

This makes interesting reading with shades of the battle of Bastogne, under equipped for the territory and badly lead.

https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukr...army-3183.html

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by beardy

Putin himself is not fighting, those fighting for him are probably not as well motivated as the Ukranians fighting for their homeland. If the Russians lose, they lose Putin, if the Ukrainians lose they lose their homeland, lives, wives, children etc.. . Hmm...

I notice it’s all gone quiet on the oligarch front too. There was one article that suggested Putin was dead and the bloated individual is a body double

[FUMR]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I notice it’s all gone quiet on the oligarch front too. There was one article that suggested Putin was dead and the bloated individual is a body double

Re the oligarchs, my understanding (from something I read a week or more ago), is that several of them (seven I believe) have met "mysterious" deaths! Perhaps the rest are lying low whilst plotting!