Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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This makes sense re Kerch, send in drones expecting to lose the odd one to assess the Air Defence capability and work out the best strike pattern, plus panicking the local Russian population.
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Timonono tonight..
So no, you do not use "whatever is available" unless you want to be an international pariah too.
There are limits.
And that video above "fire intensifying" was posted here well over 4 hrs ago...
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Worrying things at the NPP, workers told to stay home Friday, Russian nuclear specialists departed warnings of damaged structures and systems, now Russian planning to put drones over it tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560285021516201985
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560303771800027146
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560285021516201985
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1560303771800027146
Russia has a
by V. Putin (ret)
Deep, proud voice:
"What?"
"We put the CEO of the maker of the missiles in jail? Really? They don't work? They are now expensive unguided replacements for old 152's?"
sotto voice: "can we get Ukrainian citizenship? They seem to be better at management than our clowns.... Could I get to keep the apartment in Sochi I wonder, I grew fond of that from the good old times, a wonderful place to store pee tapes and Swiss bank account statements".
phone rings
"ullo? yes? Vlad, Darth Vlad, Lord Darth Vlad of the deaf star. Yes! Himself! What? Whaaaat? Our ammo dumps are going out in sympathy? Merdé! [excuse the French]. Going up in sympathy? huh? blowing up! I see, at least we can get more of that cheap stuff out of our stores to.... what? we have no more trucks? none? what about the McDonalds trucks, they aren't busy at present.... The owners took the keys? get our locksmiths to.... what? they all got tourist visas and scarpered?"
knock on door
"hold on, there is some one at the door, wait a mo...."
"yes, what is it? I'm a busy man you know, destroying the only intelligent life in the universe is a big job.... A note? from..... Kyiv? What does it say?"
" Dear Sir, we have assessed your recent application for Ukrainian asylum, and find that your reasons are not compelling. Your criminal record is a further impediment to your being granted a temporary visitors visa. Please consider alternative arrangements, yours faithfully..... P.S., Pyongyang is nice at this time of year.... and your winter clothes will fit right in for the next season."
"you are dismissed"
[General backs out quietly, genuflecting the dear leader, showing relief at not being sent to Lefortovo]
back on phone: "we must attack across the... what? the bridge was dropped? after the army leaders had left? We will cross the straights with the mighty navy.... really, all of them? holidays in Novo? Now? The new guy did? What do we have to do the opposed crossing then... the inflatable S-300 decoys? OK. Hold my calls until Spring!"
Needs a complete rewrite, from the top down and the ending is a little sketchy.
The Kerch bridge is past it's LOTEX date....
Might seem to be a good idea at the time, and indeed, looking at the lower and upper wind maps at present on windy.com, well, it would seem to be an own goal. A comment recently that Russia is dependent on Ukraine for food etc, by the former CIA dude seems to belie the et up and weather patterns that exist over Eastern Europe for the next few months. It would be a good thing to have food supplies that do not rely on anything for the next few thousand years south and east of Tula in Rus proper. Not great for Ukraine, but pretty ugly for Russia. More than half of the Russian population lives in the area that could get over 1,000kBq, so that is about 5% fatalities over medium period, and lots of little huskies with 3 eyes and 7 fingers. [could revitalise Russian piano compositions, it has been lagging since the 1812 overture...]. Russia's food predominately comes from this area, so, forge food self sufficiency, removes the majority of their energy production supply, and hardly makes friends with those down wind of their intentional act of national Seppuku.
Any adult in the house that considers it a smart move to take out their own nation for the next 10,000 years to satisfy the loopy will of the guy who got out of bed on the wrong side, who is apparently going through menopause and his belated mid life crisis is nuts.
I would contend that a deliberate destruction of a NPP that is intended to cause fall out on NATO countries, as well as Ukraine and all other countries in the area, Turkey gets a big dose in any event in the near future, as does China.... and all of the -Stans, would be an overt act of war against NATO. One bit of ionising radiation fallout on a NATO country that is the result of a deliberate, premeditated action of Count Vlad's team would be hard to suggest is not an act of war, and it is by definition something that is on their land.
Some adult intervention may be desirable.
IMHO, E&OE etc...
The question of whether Russia is a terrorist state is self evident. That they are in fact a nuclear terrorist state is more apt at this time.
The rest of the world needs to comprehend that Russia committing national suicide at Putins direction, much like the Kool-aid of Jonestown, comes with severe consequences to the rest of the world. Russia is looking at 000's of own casualties in the first 7 days of taking out ZNPP, then 000,000's within 6 months, and 00,000,000's of its own population within 9 months. Of course they can always ask for food aid from the countries that they have been threatening... good luck with that, the Ukrainians would need the same. Back in the dark continent, the consequences are a little bit worse, mass famine would result within 2 months, as they will lose all harvested food stock from both Ukraine and Russia. That should be interesting for the consequential turmoil in North Africa, Middle East, and in the sub continent. China gets a dose, and they are already looking at probable food shortfalls from imports, and they are no where near self sufficient. All of the countries that China has been threatening in the SCS in recent times would be asked to give food to China? That should be interesting.
If the UN has any reason to be, it is to get active now, before the gnome in the Kremlin does something really naughty. Russia has no say in the UNSC as they are a belligerent party in the conflict, (the relevant wording by recollection is conflict, not "war", so being obtuse doesn't alter the facts).
We are definitely answering Fermi's paradox in real time; nothing in relation to Russia's action since 24 Feb 22 suggests that intelligent life exists in this universe: "perhaps the next one over is.... oh? Vlad 2.0 of the parallel universe just blew that one up too? Too bad.... "
Last edited by fdr; 19th Aug 2022 at 00:16.
Meanwhile, is the Kerch bridge down? There was a highway advertising sign put up back in the day when Boeing (sorry about the aviation content) was suffering hard times and laying everyone (well, almost) off. Maybe a similar one is needed there....
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I did say a while back the West needs to make it clear to Russia that if anything happens to the station, there will be an equal or greater response to Russia end off.
Sense would be that the legal rules of war and the Geneva convention needs to be rewritten to basically set out international exclusion zones around Nuclear Power Plants of say 20 miles during conventional warfare.
Sense would be that the legal rules of war and the Geneva convention needs to be rewritten to basically set out international exclusion zones around Nuclear Power Plants of say 20 miles during conventional warfare.
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https://www.geocam.ru/en/in/kerch/traffic/2/
Ukraine has now got their own crowdfunded satellite lol, so hopefully we might get to see it soon… or not
As to the reports of what went on today, my observation is: shaping the battlefield.
Ukraine has now got their own crowdfunded satellite lol, so hopefully we might get to see it soon… or not
https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status...15467432468480
https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status...15467432468480
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Excellent thread.
”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html
”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html
Well that's one element that never entered my head when I posted querying the worth of the planned Russian referenda. It seems a risky manoeuvre though. If this were done in fully Ukrainian areas the Russkies are risking their conscripts turning their weapons on their Russian "compatriots" and hoofing it off to the Ukrainian side with whatever they can carry/drive.
Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 19th Aug 2022 at 09:27.
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A possibly spent air defence missille?
more images
more images
However this brings up an important point regarding limiting the access of Russian citizens to the EU. I agree with the fact that Russian tourists should be denied access because visiting the EU is a privilege and not a right. Moreover, if you support the Russian govmt one way or the other, you should face the consequences.
But there needs to be also an open corridor for all those Russians that want nothing to do with the Kremlin mafia and they want to build their lives honestly somewhere else.
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One of our Husky's that never made it.
The fact that people outside of Schengen area need a visa maybe?
There's also the Prime Minister of Estonia:
There's also the Prime Minister of Estonia:
Stop issuing tourist visas to Russians. Visiting #Europe is a privilege, not a human right. Air travel from RU is shut down. It means while Schengen countries issue visas, neighbours to Russia carry the burden (FI, EE, LV – sole access points). Time to end tourism from Russia now
Excellent thread.
”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html
”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html
In the background, his ammunition is providing spectacular displays on his own horizon, and the body bag manufacturers seem to be a growth industry for Russia, making up for their Patriotic Tractor Factory product of ronson tanks.
All pales into relative trivia in comparison to smoking half of Russia by some 18 year old drinking too much Vodka inside ZNPP where the clever plan of self destruct is set out, putting HE and incendiary devices inside the power house of the largest NPP in Europe places Russia well ahead of Al Qaeda in the terrorist group stakes. The solitary offsetting benefit is that Russia is downwind in most conditions.
If invasion of Ukraine 2.0 got Russia the greatest sanctions hit in history, what I wonder will setting half of Russia into a wasteland for the next 10,000 years through the deliberate destruction of the ZNPP as the ultimate act of terrorism. I doubt that there is a Nobel prize for peace in that direction Vlad... And that's still the good outcome, the bad outcome is that the Geiger counters start ticking in NATO countries, and then the argument of hands off will be past their use by date.