Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

Twitter is full of unconfirmed reports that the Russian commanders of the troops trapped in Kherson are negotiating to surrender.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Excellent assessment…



A little map of the situation in Northern Luhansk after the rout of the russian invaders from Kharkiv Oblast.….

If ever Vlad was to go off the deep end and escalate, now is the time he’d do it.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Originally Posted by West Coast

If ever Vlad was to go off the deep end and escalate, now is the time he’d do it.

Yes I think we are in approaching the most dangerous moment of this conflict. A widespread collapse of Russian forces and an uncontrolled retreat is now possible across a large segment of the front lines.

Russian open source strategic documents talk about using tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” response to battlefield reversals.

This how WWW 3 starts.

[Fly-by-Wife]

I hope that the Ukrainian forces can go on north-east from Kupyansk to capture Troitske, as that would cut the last remaining rail link to the whole of the Luhansk region from the northern border with Russia. There's not that many rail links left to get supplies into the Donbas after that. it would also cut the only major road into occupied Ukraine from the north.

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by ORAC

“This is how it starts, they are now low on supplies and unable to defend their positions. Without fuel and ammo the Russian defenses might also be close to collapsing west of Dnipro.”….

​​​​​​There has been very little mention of the still very large Russian Air Force attempting to help stem the Ukrainian advances. Have you heard any assessments of why?

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever

Yes I think we are in approaching the most dangerous moment of this conflict. A widespread collapse of Russian forces and an uncontrolled retreat is now possible across a large segment of the front lines.

Russian open source strategic documents talk about using tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” response to battlefield reversals.

This how WWW 3 starts……

I agree, have seen the escalate/deescalate language, it makes me nervous.

Profess to knowing nothing about how Russia employs its nuclear weapons but it seems Vlad has had yes men working for him in the conventional force structure. I truly hope that’s not the case in Russia’s nuclear force.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by albatross

When I see the destruction of myriad ammunition depots I am reminded of the classic line from the “Final Battle” scenes of the movie “Water-world” .
Scene: Tanker exploding in flames
Little girl to the frantic pirate leader : “Is this part of your Big Plan?”
One wonders if some sycophant has thought of posing that question to Putrid when reviewing “progress” at the front. ( while, of course, keeping well away from any high windows.)
The atmosphere at The Headquarters must be a bit strained these daze, not unlike the last days in the Fuhrerbunker.

the Führerbunker didn't have any windows so was a safer place than anything around Putin at present.

[ORAC]

There has been very little mention of the still very large Russian Air Force attempting to help stem the Ukrainian advances. Have you heard any assessments of why?

The UKR forces have taking BUK MSAM embedded units with them, plus all the MANPAD, reportedly the RU Air Force are refusing to go anywhere near them - and have also lost several jets to friendly fire from their own troops.

And, of course, will intermingled units - they can’t ell friend from foe…

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NWSRG

So what do we get in place of Putin? It could be better or worse, and none of us knows which yet. My point was not about worrying about Putin, it is that we ought to worry about the uncertainty that comes with a new regime.

the anger in the street so far appears to be as much about the incompetence of the prosecution of the war as about the lunacy of the war. What follows will depend on who gets to rush the gates of the bunker first as much as anything else. The escalation option has real and quite certain risks to Russia's own population with many population centres downwind of any areas of escalation, as well as a major amount of the arable land of Russia. Putin is the existential threat to Russia, not Ukraine. Navalny seems like one of the only rational rallying points for a soft landing of the Russian adventure in real estate. In 1917, the army revolted, and that could be the trigger for a soft landing, the hawks that sit in Moscow may not be so vocal with an AK-12 stuck up their nostrils by conscripts who have been deceived by management.

Where is the VVS? It is more difficult to donate the VVS equipment to the Ukrainian defence I guess.

The redeployment seems to have forgotten to include their hardware, donations appreciated by Ukraine.

[Wokkafans]

Aviation content - looks like the lead may have taken some damage:

"2 Russian Su-25s avoid 2 Igla\Stinger launches, Unknown location."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown

​​​​​​There has been very little mention of the still very large Russian Air Force attempting to help stem the Ukrainian advances. Have you heard any assessments of why?

Officially not but annecdotally ukraine is running quite heavy SAM and Manpad forces near the attacking forces. RUF has pretty much refused to get over the battlefield, looks like they have lost 2 SU-34 (one shot down and one damaged and crashed in crimea) 1 Su-25 and 1 SU-24 in the last 48 hours

[Wokkafans]

The Ukrainian Army confirms that the Russian forces have fled the city of Svatove.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1569102985707327488?s=20&t=_-_4scptCn9GO5PuQb221w

Twitter

[RatherBeFlying]

RF are effectively wasting vast amounts of artillery on civilian targets, leaving them short of shells to engage military targets. Their aim also seems deficient.

UKF by contrast are far more effective in taking out military targets.

Politico ran an article on Camden AK where munition factories are short of workers while inventory is sagging and orders are piling up.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...apons-00055124

[Winemaker]

An interesting article in The Atlantic about where Russia is headed, well worth a read.

Even if they prove ephemeral, the events of the past few days do change the nature of this war. From the very beginning, everybody—Europeans, Americans, the global business community in particular—has wanted a return to stability. But the path to stability in Ukraine, long-lasting stability, has been hard to see. After all, any cease-fire imposed too early could be treated, by Moscow, as an opportunity to rearm. Any offer to negotiate could be understood, in Moscow, as a sign of weakness. But now is the time to ask about the stability of Russia itself and to factor that question into our plans. Russian soldiers are running away, ditching their equipment, asking to surrender. How long do we have to wait until the men in Putin’s inner circle do the same?

The possibility of instability in Russia, a nuclear power, terrifies many. But it may now be unavoidable. And if that’s what is coming, we should anticipate it, plan for it, think about the possibilities as well as the dangers. “We have learned not to be scared,” Reznikov told his Kyiv audience on Saturday. “Now we ask the rest of you not to be scared too.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-putin/671405/

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

An interesting article in The Atlantic about where Russia is headed, well worth a read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-putin/671405/

It is interesting. I’m just not sure the end game is here yet. The enemy has a say in when the war is over, and I think they still have some tricks up their sleeves.

[NutLoose]

Well they are fighting each other in the media as to where it all went wrong and how to fix it.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...70513909022720

Twitter

[Max Tow]

Russia now largest military equipment supplier to Ukraine?

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/ntclead6/status/...ucoRevbr_bdm3Q

At sunrise this morning a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES, and lethal munition capable launched in advance of 11th ACR’s attack on a prepared defense by 1AD. Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by ORAC

At sunrise this morning a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES, and lethal munition capable launched in advance of 11th ACR’s attack on a prepared defense by 1AD. Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today.

That was an exercise in the US, not ukraine

[ORAC]

The way war is going….

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/sta...ucoRevbr_bdm3Q