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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th May 2022, 10:54
  #5301 (permalink)  
 
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Probably better that the Ukrainians do not reoccupy the island any time soon. It would be a perfect target for any kind of outrageous weapon the Moskovites might wish to dust off and show off.
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Old 9th May 2022, 11:23
  #5302 (permalink)  
 
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Now this is how to do a May Day parade, no thousands of troops, no myriad of armour, no bunch of surviving Generals clustered around Putin wondering who is next for the chop.......
One man, One street, and a One heck of a speech....


https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1523585619876007938



..

Last edited by NutLoose; 9th May 2022 at 15:59.
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Old 9th May 2022, 12:29
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Lost in Translation?

Originally Posted by dead_pan
Apparently it was 'a bit cloudy'....
Tass:""The air part will not take place due to the weather," he said."
Maybe the 'weather' refers to the 'whether they have any aircraft left, or whether they don't'?

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Old 9th May 2022, 12:55
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METAR: UUEE 091230Z 33004G09MPS 240V030 9999 -SHRA BKN020CB 04/02 Q1021 R24L/290051 R24C/290051 NOSIG

That stops a military flypast?
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Old 9th May 2022, 13:02
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Zelensky is the sort of leader we can only dream of having in this country - great speech and excellently delivered.

Can you imagine how long it would have taken the tousle - haired one to do that with all the 'err's um's, and to's' ?
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Old 9th May 2022, 13:05
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That stops a military flypast?
probably concerned one of them might decide to take their glorious leader out with a 9-11 style attack.
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Old 9th May 2022, 14:33
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Vlad had better pick a nice day for his nuclear war or the "Doomsday Plane" will not be able to take off!
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Old 9th May 2022, 14:41
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Not very Diplomatic, but ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-61376503
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Old 9th May 2022, 14:54
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Putin’s first (?) unforgivable offense.

He held a massive arms display in Belarus and invited the world’s press to demonstrations of the power of his weaponry. Great so far, but only up to that point, and then he went and invaded Ukraine, and undid all the hard work. Potential customers will have been shocked at how vulnerable it all was. How is Russia going to generate any new arms orders now?
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Old 9th May 2022, 14:57
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
Not that stupid, if you think any further than "just waiting", being stalled with only commenting and no solutions.

You need to have a suitable goal, bringing a solution you want, and from there you start to scale down towards a realistic version of your goal vs. how to realize that.

About nukes: TBH, I am not that scared about that. Russia does have a lot of old stuff of that, and, given the chronic lack of money (In the end Russia was quite a small economy), I seriously doubt, all those deterrent "rockets" are really functional. You need to put in quite a lot of purified Uranium/Plutonium, which is pretty costly to produce. Let alone, firing of these nukes is not a one-man-button show, but a process, where more sane people are involved than the current "head-of-state" with Parkinson and Cancer. Let's not forget, a erroneous nuke firing has been avoided in the past because somebody in the process did have brains.

Far from being not stupid, it is still perhaps the most stupid post that I have ever seen on PPRune!

You seriously suggested that "the west" in some kind of non NATO way, invades Russia and Belarus and occupies Moscow, if that is not the definition of insanity...

You may not be scared about the world's largest collection of strategic nuclear weapons in the hands of a paranoid megalomaniac, but other sane folk certainly are. And as for them being old, well that will be some consolation when a 1MT weapon detonates over our head, at least it was old.... Geez!

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Old 9th May 2022, 15:47
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Far from being not stupid, it is still perhaps the most stupid post that I have ever seen on PPRune!

You seriously suggested that "the west" in some kind of non NATO way, invades Russia and Belarus and occupies Moscow, if that is not the definition of insanity...

You may not be scared about the world's largest collection of strategic nuclear weapons in the hands of a paranoid megalomaniac, but other sane folk certainly are. And as for them being old, well that will be some consolation when a 1MT weapon detonates over our head, at least it was old.... Geez!
I'd bet a pint that the Russian nuclear deterrent is essentially useless. But the stakes are a bit higher than a beer.
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Old 9th May 2022, 16:08
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I did wonder where Valery Gerasimov was today, lying in bed with his foot in the air? one only hopes he does not get well.
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Old 9th May 2022, 16:09
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Originally Posted by flyingorthopod
I'd bet a pint that the Russian nuclear deterrent is essentially useless. But the stakes are a bit higher than a beer.
As we (the West) discovered when the USSR folded, and subsequent unpleasant events leading up to today … the Bogey Man is not nearly as dangerour, well-equipped and talented as we initially feared. BUT … it only takes one psychopath and one successful launch to recalibrate the human race’s history and subsequent survival. And it’s that that has me somewhat nervous as this drags on.

How robust are their Release procedures? Putin is not the only megalomaniac and indoctrinated clown in tbe loop.
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Old 9th May 2022, 16:11
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Originally Posted by Herod
METAR: UUEE 091230Z 33004G09MPS 240V030 9999 -SHRA BKN020CB 04/02 Q1021 R24L/290051 R24C/290051 NOSIG

That stops a military flypast?

Fixed it for you......

UUEE 091230Z 33004G09MPS 240V030 9999 -SHRA BKN020CB 04/02 Q1021 R24L/290051 R24C/290051 TEMPO MANPAD SHLEAD BECMG CAVOK NOSIG

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Old 9th May 2022, 16:33
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Now this is how to do a May Day parade, no thousands of troops, no myriad of armour, no bunch of surviving Generals clustered around Putin wondering who is next for the chop.......
One man, One street, and a One heck of a speech....


https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1523585619876007938



..
Nutloose,

I appreciate your posts, but THAT has to be the very best of the bunch-thank you!
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Old 9th May 2022, 17:37
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Far from being not stupid, it is still perhaps the most stupid post that I have ever seen on PPRune!
Let's agree to disagree on that.
Originally Posted by pr00ne
You seriously suggested that "the west" in some kind of non NATO way, invades Russia and Belarus and occupies Moscow, if that is not the definition of insanity...
Please read again, what I wrote, is a little different from what you have in your mind.

Originally Posted by pr00ne
You may not be scared about the world's largest collection of strategic nuclear weapons in the hands of a paranoid megalomaniac, but other sane folk certainly are. And as for them being old, well that will be some consolation when a 1MT weapon detonates over our head, at least it was old.... Geez!
Of course.

Though today's' "big day" with big announcements expected, were somewhat of a disappointment:
- No general mobilization.
- No Nukes thread.
- No new ideas how to solve Russia's Ukraine issue.
- Not even an airshow.
- Limited military hardware and not looking that modern to me.

The only big announcement was, that Russia did expect to be attacked by the NATO and as such invaded Ukraine (No more Nazi's ?). A bit of a strange reasoning, but hey, this is Putin.

At the military level, that presumed NATO invasion was obviously fake news. NATO is not going to attack Russia without being attacked first, let alone, how to keep such plans secret in a Western society with free press and leaks everywhere. Let alone, all the democratic governments with a whole flavor in the political spectrum, expected to approve such invasion plans. Strange, to put it mildly.

However, when diving into this Putin statement, something completely different shows up. And I think, with that, we do have the real reason for the Ukraine invasion.

The NATO/West expands more and more, simply because the former USSR countries politically convert to societies of freedom (just because habitants want that). And with that type of society a political match with existing NATO countries rises, subsequent joinings with NATO will become history, etc.

From the Russia point of view, step by step, all the former USSR countries start to politically reform into something that can be described as a democracy. It is realistic to expect, this will continue until all (or at least west of Russia) the former USSR countries are "converted". And then, the Western side of Russia is "surrounded" by wealthy NATO countries, all closely bordering with Russia. And the freedom and wealth in those converted countries becomes visible to the Russians living near those NATO borders. These Russians simply start to get jealous and want that freedom and wealth too. The connection is easily made that a change of political system created the significant better living conditions for the converted NATO countries.

Which in turn would be a major existential threat to Russia with its current political system, based on suppression and military focus.

So, for Russia, how to break through that chain of events ?

Just invade and take-over the governments of the countries not yet converted. Since recapturing the smaller NATO countries with military force would be dangerous due to the NATO military threat, it would be better to do that capture via the political processes (Hungary, for example).

And, yep, when successfully, Tsar Putin would go into the history books as the rescuer of the USSR inheritance.
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Old 9th May 2022, 17:45
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Originally Posted by flyingorthopod
I'd bet a pint that the Russian nuclear deterrent is essentially useless. But the stakes are a bit higher than a beer.
If only 1% worked, for sake of argument, that's a pretty big bang.
Doubtful he could "win" with a nuclear exchange, but who could?
It's not a wise move, of course, but it is evil and that fairly well describes the possibility.
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Old 9th May 2022, 18:01
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
At the military level, that presumed NATO invasion was obviously fake news. NATO is not going to attack Russia without being attacked first, let alone, how to keep such plans secret in a Western society with free press and leaks And then, the Western side of Russia is "surrounded" by wealthy NATO countries, all closely bordering with Russia. And the freedom and wealth in those converted countries becomes visible to the Russians living near those NATO borders. These Russians simply start to get jealous and want that freedom and wealth too. The connection is easily made that a change of political system created the significant better living conditions for the converted NATO countries.

Which in turn would be a major existential threat to Russia with its current political system, based on suppression and military focus.
If the Russians aren't already "jealous" decades after life under USSR and then its collapse, when will they be? What better examples do they need than Poland, et al.? And, as has been mentioned several times already, if Putin wanted to stop that, the invasion of Ukraine is perhaps the most counterproductive step he could take (though I admit he's good at coming up with them).

The west should be doing it's level best to support the freedom, security and economies of loving former Communist nations. The Russian people need to make up their minds, are such thing worth fighting for?

As Captain Ramius said, "A little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don't you think?"
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Old 9th May 2022, 18:11
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
If only 1% worked, for sake of argument, that's a pretty big bang.
Doubtful he could "win" with a nuclear exchange, but who could?
It's not a wise move, of course, but it is evil and that fairly well describes the possibility.
Yep, there is the Nuke threat and even with a 1%, etc, it would be disastrous.

However, we do see how well the Russian military stuff is designed and produced. So, when Russia fires a Nuke, it could very well be, it is landing on its own territory. Legit reasons (apart from the virtual threat) to "move" the mobile Nukes close to the Finland border.

Though, the good thing is, with the big speech party, today, there were no announcements for Nukes-firing. Which, in turn, would rule out the usefulness of the Nukes, IE the threat. Use the threat to accomplish what you want, since you won't get anything meaningful (or better, lose all), when you are the first one to use the Nuke. Of course, walk on eggs, though be aware, eggs can be very strong and difficult to squeeze. Don't put the dog in the microwave, and whatever warnings are needed.
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Old 9th May 2022, 18:22
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
If the Russians aren't already "jealous" decades after life under USSR and then its collapse, when will they be? What better examples do they need than Poland, et al.? And, as has been mentioned several times already, if Putin wanted to stop that, the invasion of Ukraine is perhaps the most counterproductive step he could take (though I admit he's good at coming up with them).
Yep, but it would be far more visible without buffer states between NATO states and Russia mainland. Let us not forget, Putin doesn't use Internet .......
Originally Posted by GlobalNav
The west should be doing it's level best to support the freedom, security and economies of loving former Communist nations. The Russian people need to make up their minds, are such thing worth fighting for?
These 2 sentences do stretch the Western responsibilities quite a lot. Of course, those countries selecting freedom, etc and having joined the Western party should be supported. Those countries wanting and in the process to join should be helped too. Military attacking Russia to "liberate" the population would be quite a stretch further. The current Western support with fighting in Ukraine is, simply, because the Russian bully is not expected to stop with only Ukraine, trying to reinstate the former USSR. See my earlier post.

Originally Posted by GlobalNav
As Captain Ramius said, "A little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don't you think?"
These were wise words, not only to put Russia in place, though also for the current US political landscape ......
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