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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th May 2022, 18:35
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Originally Posted by WideScreen

Though, the good thing is, with the big speech party, today, there were no announcements for Nukes-firing. Which, in turn, would rule out the usefulness of the Nukes, IE the threat. Use the threat to accomplish what you want, since you won't get anything meaningful (or better, lose all), when you are the first one to use the Nuke. Of course, walk on eggs, though be aware, eggs can be very strong and difficult to squeeze. Don't put the dog in the microwave, and whatever warnings are needed.
Actually I would say the usefulness of Nukes and the threat were all too apparent, it was because of the retaliatory threat of a massive counter strike if one was used on Ukraine that deterred those announcements.
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Old 9th May 2022, 18:38
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New Yorker Article on Bayraktar

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ure-of-warfare
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Old 9th May 2022, 19:05
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Interesting - from todays Pentagon briefingÖ

The Pentagon sees anecdotal evidence of numerous Russian military officers in Ukraine disobeying orders from their commanders.

Those Russian officers disobeying are mid-level, up to the level of battalion commander, the senior U.S. defense official said.
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Old 9th May 2022, 19:36
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For some perspective.

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Old 9th May 2022, 20:02
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
For some perspective
That's what I said about two thousand posts ago, that we keep reading Nutty's "scorecard" but it's hard to translate the numbers into actual people and equipment so if someone made models of planes and tanks and lined up plastic soldiers it might give some real world perspective ... like this
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Old 9th May 2022, 20:34
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Old 9th May 2022, 20:59
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If Putin and some cronies want to rebuild the Soviet Union.....and we know how the people when exposed to Western style freedom and prosperity react....how does that old hardcore communist core of the Russian Government react?

We saw an example when the Berlin Wall went up and they killed many trying to escape.

What do the Russian People want these days....more empty shelves due to Communist Party failures or Western style lifestyle items and some freedom?

How does Putin handle that now with the complications of a failed War in Ukraine and the resultant Sanctions?

Juggling those two Balls is hard enough but what if there is some real move by the Russian People or his Military and Security Service to challenge his Rule?

What then?

Last edited by T28B; 10th May 2022 at 13:22. Reason: space clean up
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Old 9th May 2022, 21:49
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Actually I would say the usefulness of Nukes and the threat were all too apparent, it was because of the retaliatory threat of a massive counter strike if one was used on Ukraine that deterred those announcements.
Yep, apparent for those "in the known". However, this once in a year glorious Putin moment is also there to "prepare" (or maybe better "justify towards") the local population a Nuke might be sent off. In the end, it could be, Putin is getting similar presents back.

A massive (NATO ?) counterstrike wasn't something really possible. For that, the resources need to be collected and these weren't there (at that moment, the current situation might be different). Maybe more of a Putin type warning, "don't interfere with our superior actions in Ukraine".

I really think, the Russian Nukes option is already from the table. The $33B Ukraine support option was already known to Putin, when speeching, and in the past, he has mumbled about Nukes for much smaller support options. Let the Polish Migs come, asap. Maybe not via Ramstein, though via London Heathrow or so, clearly visible, etc. This might be the last Bojo action, his last bluff action.
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Old 9th May 2022, 22:11
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Originally Posted by SASless
If Putin and some cronies want to rebuild the Soviet Union.....and we know how the people when exposed to Western style freedom and prosperity react....how does that old hardcore communist core of the Russian Government react?

We saw an example when the Berlin Wall went up and they killed many trying to escape.

What do the Russian People want these days....more empty shelves due to Communist Party failures or Western style lifestyle items and some freedom?

How does Putin handle that now with the complications of a failed War in Ukraine and the resultant Sanctions?

Juggling those two Balls is hard enough but what if there is some real move by the Russian People or his Military and Security Service to challenge his Rule?

What then?
I agree with you, that a transition of Russia to a real democracy will be a very difficult one. As such, my earlier suggestion, the Russian Federation breaks up and later on rejoins according to something like the EU model (with I hope significantly fewer languages). Breaking up of the Federation would imply that a lot of the centralized dye-hard communist structures become redundant and control moves to a more local scale. Implying the propaganda and other controlling institutions also break down.

What the Russian people want: Stability, if needed to be enforced the hard way. Forgetting that "the hard way" becomes more and more brutal, the longer such a scheme runs. Breaking up the Federation would make things a significantly smaller scale and as such better manageable.

For now, Putin rules by propaganda, FSB enforcement, social control, zero press freedom and Stalin practices. Though the longer the Ukraine war takes, the more service men are missing or return home dead, fueling the unrest of the population. Difficult to predict what is going to happen, though Chaos is a certainty. Chaos anyway, when Putin dies, since nearly every major decision is tied to him personally and though there are formal institutions, these aren't recognized to be applicable (see the ignored formal transfer of power to the prime-minister position, when Putin gets his planned cancer operation, the power goes -rumored- to his FSB "friend").
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Old 9th May 2022, 22:26
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
Yep, but it would be far more visible without buffer states between NATO states and Russia mainland. Let us not forget, Putin doesn't use Internet .......

These 2 sentences do stretch the Western responsibilities quite a lot. Of course, those countries selecting freedom, etc and having joined the Western party should be supported. Those countries wanting and in the process to join should be helped too. Military attacking Russia to "liberate" the population would be quite a stretch further. The current Western support with fighting in Ukraine is, simply, because the Russian bully is not expected to stop with only Ukraine, trying to reinstate the former USSR. See my earlier post.


These were wise words, not only to put Russia in place, though also for the current US political landscape ......
Well, the west has choices to make. If to support (they already are to some degree), how and for what objectives. I donít think itís a binary choice, itís a spectrum. Iím not a fan of ďnation-buildingĒ, I prefer the people to decide for themselves, but I am a fan of promoting and supporting nations which act responsibly and not contrary to our own national security. I agree with you that our support of Ukraine is not solely for the sake of Ukraine. We may be doing more than new outlets tell us, but I wish we were doing more than it a appears we (USA) are to get Russian forces entirely out of all Ukrainian territory, including regions already stolen from them and to help Ukraine recover from the devastating destruction they have suffered.

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Old 9th May 2022, 22:51
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I do see benefits to the west in the future, Ukraine will need help to rebuild post war and the likes of John Deere will be replacing stolen farm equipment etc to the benefit of American workers and industry.
Also various countries will be restocking donated weapons for their own military use, such as NLAW, Javelin and Stinger, the success of which shown against the likes of Russias finest will open up the sales worldwide and to the home markets, again generating jobs and revenues for those countries.
I would imagine Turkey has a queue at their door for UAV’s

Reparations will play a huge part in all of this as insurance does not normally cover war, however according to Russia it’s not a war, though I bet the insurance industry will disagree. I would like to see all the frozen Russian assets etc used to pay for it all.


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Last edited by NutLoose; 9th May 2022 at 23:06.
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Old 9th May 2022, 23:28
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Q) Why did Putin ban bagpipes on Victory Day?


A) Because he didn't want the parade being spoiled by drones
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Old 9th May 2022, 23:30
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You think that’s bad sue, have you seen his propaganda?








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Old 9th May 2022, 23:53
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If you wondering what it is costing, this I believe is to be a rough idea of the Russia costs so far.

see below





Last edited by NutLoose; 10th May 2022 at 00:07.
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Old 10th May 2022, 02:36
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
If you wondering what it is costing, this I believe is to be a rough idea of the Russia costs so far.

see below


On top of this there is the roughly $300 billion in Russian financial assets frozen by the western governments. The true cost of this conflict is staggering.
Still, the disruption of supply has sent oil and gas prices soaring, so Russia is actually generating record revenues from energy exports, 1.8 trillion rubles in April ( double that of last year) according to Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=2319a1e04e34
So there is ample money to continue fighting.
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Old 10th May 2022, 02:39
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A bit early for the Bonnie & Clyde remembrance day, but it's the thought that counts! Thanks Vlad!
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Old 10th May 2022, 04:07
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
Yes, that makes very interesting reading. Were you also a little surprised to see a Muslimic nation not just buying technology from the west but producing it?

The religious aspects of this ongoing conflict are most interesting. Since Russia gave up on communism it has returned to embrace the Russian orthodox church. And Putin has sought to conflate religion and conflict. Seee
this extraordinary...Religious theme park

Anyone looking for sci-fi plot material might want to ponder on a future conflict between a (mainly) Catholic European Union and those Protestants who seek/have left it....
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Old 10th May 2022, 05:37
  #5338 (permalink)  
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Great thread on Ukrainian Artillery C3.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...313433088.html


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Old 10th May 2022, 06:08
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Those interested in the idea of post-Putin Russia should read this excellent book https://www.whsmith.co.uk/products/w...62748a166d&gcl to see how W Germany managed to absorb and regenerate E Germany after years of Soviet rule.
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Old 10th May 2022, 06:22
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Anyone looking for sci-fi plot material might want to ponder on a future conflict between a (mainly) Catholic European Union and those Protestants who seek/have left it....
Already been done, but it was in the 16th century so not surprising that it has passed from living memory.
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