Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Wider than the barrel, I'm not sure, it's a mortar after all. Of course this mortar exists. Pictures of the 240 mm rounds show them approx. 5 feet long. Your last picture suggests approx. 1535 mm from the 240 mm caliber. And it's not lined up by 1 or 2 degrees. Maybe an artilleryman would have something to say about the departure flame as well...
Speaking of which, this mortar does not have a mouth brake. So yes, "photoshopped".
Speaking of which, this mortar does not have a mouth brake. So yes, "photoshopped".
Last edited by Petit-Lion; 14th May 2022 at 19:02. Reason: precisions
Could be, would not be the first time.
By all means comment at The Drive on your reservations, they could probably use the feedback.
Maybe an artilleryman would have something to say about the departure flame as well...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,025
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
It’s remarkable how fast technology is advancing when needs must, a Dutch company had produced a rotary launcher for dropping mortar rounds.
M-N
Russia started the war with a total of around 180 BTG, of which 120 have been committed to the war so far.
Of the above they have to date lost around 53 BTG worth of men, IFV and tanks and continue to lose about 2/3s of a BTG a day. So in just over another week they will have lost over 30% of their total army and 50% of those committed to the war.
Worse, those remaining have been reconstituted with conscripts and forced recruits* and social media is rife with stories of Luhansk conscripts retreating to the Russian border and being threatened with execution to turn them back - and Russian reservists refusing to sign-up to go to Ukraine as they’ve heard the news and, without martial law or mobilisation, they can’t be made to go.
*Being issued with 1914 vintage Mosin–Nagants rifles and limited rounds per man - presumably so they they present a low risk of turning them on the Russian officers…
As the quality of the troops go down and the number of component officers being lost goes up (no NCOs), their loss rate vs the UKR army goes up - its now estimated at between 5:1 and 7:1.
Their is a military calculation as to the point at which an army will collapse into full scale retreat or surrender, a Lanchester Square collapse, and the current online forecasts for this to occur within the current invading force vary between an optimistic end of June and pessimistic mid-August.
Moisin Nagant Rifle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosin–Nagant
Of the above they have to date lost around 53 BTG worth of men, IFV and tanks and continue to lose about 2/3s of a BTG a day. So in just over another week they will have lost over 30% of their total army and 50% of those committed to the war.
Worse, those remaining have been reconstituted with conscripts and forced recruits* and social media is rife with stories of Luhansk conscripts retreating to the Russian border and being threatened with execution to turn them back - and Russian reservists refusing to sign-up to go to Ukraine as they’ve heard the news and, without martial law or mobilisation, they can’t be made to go.
*Being issued with 1914 vintage Mosin–Nagants rifles and limited rounds per man - presumably so they they present a low risk of turning them on the Russian officers…
As the quality of the troops go down and the number of component officers being lost goes up (no NCOs), their loss rate vs the UKR army goes up - its now estimated at between 5:1 and 7:1.
Their is a military calculation as to the point at which an army will collapse into full scale retreat or surrender, a Lanchester Square collapse, and the current online forecasts for this to occur within the current invading force vary between an optimistic end of June and pessimistic mid-August.
Moisin Nagant Rifle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosin–Nagant
In no particular order:
Mosin-Nagant in 7.62x54R can still be a high-powered accurate firearm. It has a slow rate of fire, but it is a capable bolt-action firearm. There is a logic to giving a low consumables firearm out in some cases, most of which is in keeping with the historical attitude of the Red Army towards its own people, let alone civilians.
Lanchesters N-square law has some constraints in application directly to Vlad's Grand Tour. It doesn't consider technological effects or asymmetric conflict directly, but that can all be assumed in the firepower effectiveness figures at least post hoc, if the data is valid. The effect of terrain, defensive structures etc also need to be considered separately or wrapped up in the effectriveness figures. Morale isn't included in the analysis, and in this conflict, as long as Ukraine is not actively attacking civilian populations in Russia there is an overwhelming home team advantage to Ukraine, they are getting support all round, whereas Red froces have to point guns at the backs of their own soldiers, and seem mose effecrtive in arresting and dismissing their own commanders. Ramsay (2008) sets out the current algorithm used to evalyate the CDB90 battle dataset, (DOD/Dupuy/HERO etc) which seem rational. The problem with doing numerical analysis is that as often as not it will be wrong; it is almost impossible to obtain a German victory in May 1940, yet that occurred, imperialist countries have routinely been booted out of countries that were posessed by force, and in mid february, fascinating strategic studoes at high level institutions were indicating the mathematical unacceptability of a war started by Russia in Ukraine. Not the first time irrational actions occurred. Davis (1995) sets out a discussion on Lanchesters N-Square law compared to the 3:1 rule.... which sets forth various examples where the N-Square or 3:1 rule don't work as expected (page 8, interesting read)
Red forces do already appear to be compromised for any attacks aimed at gaining territory. The Red forces maintain the ability to conduct wanton devastation, which undermines any legitamacy they may have ever been able to argue. The Blue & Gold Force can currently use an increasing indirect fire capability coupled with ISR at all levels to destroy Red forces inplace over time, and to interdict Red MSR.
Wild cards abound as always, including the sortie of the majority of the Kilos out of Sevastopol.
Time is not on the Reds side, nor on the world at large, there is an increasing potential for famine conditions to result from Russias aggrssion and the impact to global food supplies. An oddity of that is the countries most at risk of famine from the actions of Russia happen to be the countries that have sat back mutely abstaining from condemning Russian aggresssion. Odd.
John Boyd- Patterns
An interesting factor goes beyond what we arew itnessing at present, towards the consequences post conflict (Kugler et al, 2013), which indicate that more advanced societies recover faster and by greater amounts post conflict than underdeveloped societies. By any reasonable metric Russia is a failed state at present, reliant on its brutish menace to maintain relevacnce other than oil and gas, and armaments exports, all of which have been compromised by the establishment of the perrenial kleptocracy that holds back Russia's potential, yet satisfies the apparent need of it's population to be subjugated by a strong leadership, Stalin or Putin, or other Tsars. Ukraine has been the technical center of competency for the USSR and may well recover far faster than Russia
Davis, P. K., (1995). Aggregation, disaggregation, and the 3:1 rule in ground combat. Santa Monica, CA: Rand.
Dupuy, T. N. 1979. Numbers, predictions and war. Fairfax, VA: HERO Books.
Dupuy, T. N. 1995. Attrition: Forecasting battle casualties and equipment loss in modern war. Falls Church, VA: NOVA.
Klingberg, Frank L. "Predicting the Termination of War: Battle Casualties and Population Losses." Journal of conflict Resolution, vo1. 10, No. 2 (June 1966), pp. 129-171.
Kugler, T., Kang, K. kook, Kugler, J., Arbetman-Rabinowitz, M., & Thomas, J. (2013). Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 57(1), 1–12.
Ramsay, K. W. (2008). Settling It on the Field: Battlefield Events and War Termination. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52(6), 850–879. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27638643
Mortars and how they may integrate with aviation.
The Drive has a piece about laser guided mortar rounds.
Some decades ago, the 'copperhead' artillery round (Indirect fire) could be lased/designated by the sneaky recon types.
Aviation Content Follows!
I can imagine an airborne IR targeting pod and these laser guided mortar shells working in tandem to make for some very lethal strikes using indirect fires on a variety of targets. I remember in the mid 1990's discussing the future of warfare with a USMC colonel, whose take was that the Marines needed to leave their M-1 Abrams to the Army and get with capabilities like guided mortars and 'bright' munitions to attack enemies from the top down. I daresay that his vision has at least in part come true, and I understand that the USMC divested themselves of tanks (and I am aware of a number of their UAV initiatives, but that's off topic for this discussion).
I wonder what the Russians are using to guide these laser guided mortar rounds to target: ground based or air based laser targeting kit? (And maybe both).
The Drive has a piece about laser guided mortar rounds.
Some decades ago, the 'copperhead' artillery round (Indirect fire) could be lased/designated by the sneaky recon types.
Aviation Content Follows!
I can imagine an airborne IR targeting pod and these laser guided mortar shells working in tandem to make for some very lethal strikes using indirect fires on a variety of targets. I remember in the mid 1990's discussing the future of warfare with a USMC colonel, whose take was that the Marines needed to leave their M-1 Abrams to the Army and get with capabilities like guided mortars and 'bright' munitions to attack enemies from the top down. I daresay that his vision has at least in part come true, and I understand that the USMC divested themselves of tanks (and I am aware of a number of their UAV initiatives, but that's off topic for this discussion).
I wonder what the Russians are using to guide these laser guided mortar rounds to target: ground based or air based laser targeting kit? (And maybe both).
He has many detractors, from Mad Dog Mattis on down to me,
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,025
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
This is one days losses as verified by oryxspioenkop that only goes by photo evidence, surely these losses can’t sustainable.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
"The exact moment Ukrainian artillery struck the Russian pontoon bridge near Bilohorivka a few days ago"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
When I see "Abandoned"....my question becomes "Why was the vehicle abandoned?".
If out of fuel...or crew legged it leaving it in working order....damaged but not recoverable....unserviceable due to mechanical failure or lack of spare parts.....all begins to tell the story.
Russians were supposed to be River Crossing experts....but two failed such crossings challenges that reputation.
One thing for sure....the automated gun turret on the tanks has been a gross failure judging by the Turret tossing they are being seen so good at doing when hit by an Anti-Tank weapon that penetrates the Turret.
If out of fuel...or crew legged it leaving it in working order....damaged but not recoverable....unserviceable due to mechanical failure or lack of spare parts.....all begins to tell the story.
Russians were supposed to be River Crossing experts....but two failed such crossings challenges that reputation.
One thing for sure....the automated gun turret on the tanks has been a gross failure judging by the Turret tossing they are being seen so good at doing when hit by an Anti-Tank weapon that penetrates the Turret.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian Annexation Report Highlight:
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ptable-“-ramp”
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ptable-“-ramp”
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,025
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
I some how think the reprisals would leave Russia a smoking hole in the ground, however if Putin Is terminal I’ll it won’t bother him, it might bother his military with families and might be endex for Putin ordering it.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,025
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
I just hope Russia is now waking up to the fact that conventionally wise they can no longer throw their weight around in any shape or form as the rest of the world will no longer stand by and let it happen as they did at the start of the Cold War.
I also hope they now realise that their nuclear card has been well and truly played and the western nations have played chicken with them and won.
They have lost, even if they do not yet realise it.
I also hope they now realise that their nuclear card has been well and truly played and the western nations have played chicken with them and won.
They have lost, even if they do not yet realise it.
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Mostly in my own imagination
Posts: 477
Received 311 Likes
on
145 Posts
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: South East Asia
Posts: 430
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Gun Turrets
Ref Post #5516, "....One thing for sure....the automated gun turret on the tanks has been a gross failure judging by the Turret tossing they are being seen so good at doing when hit by an Anti-Tank weapon that penetrates the Turret...." I too was amazed in the early days of the war when news videos showed the Ukrainian countryside in the Kyiv region to be strewn with inverted tank turrets. Now that the fighting has moved to the eastern theatre we're seeing the same thing. It reminds me of Admiral Beatty's famous remark at the Battle of Jutland in WW1, "There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today." If Russian tank turrets can detach so esily it begs the queation, "If the tank crew all farted together would if blow the turret off or simply dislodge it?" And, if either is correct, and given that the Russian soldiers are short of food, then let's airdrop them cans, many cans, of baked beans.
Russian Annexation Report Highlight:
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...0;-ramp”
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...0;-ramp”
The annexation of Crimea was unlawful and remains illegal still. In the 50's Crimea was ceeded by USSR to Ukiaine as a province of the Ukraine. In 1994 Russia signed the Budapest treaty and that should have been the end of the matter, as should the earlier 2 treaties in 1991 which Russia was a party to. In 2014, Russia breaches it's treaty rights and then conducts a referendum that is not done undere Ukraine law, and which included padding of the vote by the simple expedient of bringing in Russians and allowing Russians to vote in the elections. Russia has continued to show a disregard for election process all over the world since with direct and indirect meddling. Russia's annexation of Crimea has as much validity as if they annex Paris.
Russian Annexation Report Highlight:
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ptable-“-ramp”
The Kremlin could threaten to use nuclear weapons against a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed territory to deter the ongoing Western military aid that would enable such a counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ptable-“-ramp”
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...053324802.html
“7/ Russia, theoretically, might construct some last gasp offensive out of Crimea or elsewhere in the south. But this would be akin to the WW2 German Ardennes Offensive – tactically dangerous for a short time but ultimately operationally and strategically futile.”..
“7/ Russia, theoretically, might construct some last gasp offensive out of Crimea or elsewhere in the south. But this would be akin to the WW2 German Ardennes Offensive – tactically dangerous for a short time but ultimately operationally and strategically futile.”..
musings
Ukraine has certainly caused issues to Red forces around Karkhiv, up to the border. To the east of that position, they have a risk if Red can make any advances around the NE area of ops, as they could start to surround the Ukrainians in that area. I doubt that Red forces have the means, logistics or morale to be able to do that, but it is a risk that exists. At the same time, Ukraine moving east across the MSR of the Reds will remove the likelihood of encirclement of their own troops in the NE.
Crossing the national boundary of Russia by the Ukrainians is an invitation for escalation, it gives Putin the existential threat that he has been talking about, even if it is in response to his own aggression. Attacking rail & logistic supply lines across the border is one thing, putting boots into Russia has high risks.
Crimea is legally Ukrainian territory. Removing the Kerch bridge still seems to be a worthwhile target, and it has the potential to lock the Black sea fleet into an area that it is limited in its utility.
The theft of crops by Russia is getting some response, it needs greater international outrage and response, including protection of grain shipments that are legitimate from Odessa to other countries that are affected by the loss of supply of ~35% of global grain supplies. The impact on the 3rd world in particular needs to be highlighted to get more reaction from the UN which has been moribund in it's actions for the last 2 months.
The Kilo's remain a threat of causing regional vindictive damage. It is a hallmark of Russian military doctrine that they do not care about civilians, they never have, and for that alone, they have no legitimate place in the UN, which is to the continued shame of the UNGA. Pity Ukraine doesn't have a squadron of S-3's. In the absence of dedicated ASW assets, it would appear that the benefit of drone ISR with high res side-looking SAR would seem to be worthwhile, coupled with drone platforms with standoff missile cape, with warheads that may be effective against a snorting target, that is an open question.
Crossing the national boundary of Russia by the Ukrainians is an invitation for escalation, it gives Putin the existential threat that he has been talking about, even if it is in response to his own aggression. Attacking rail & logistic supply lines across the border is one thing, putting boots into Russia has high risks.
Crimea is legally Ukrainian territory. Removing the Kerch bridge still seems to be a worthwhile target, and it has the potential to lock the Black sea fleet into an area that it is limited in its utility.
The theft of crops by Russia is getting some response, it needs greater international outrage and response, including protection of grain shipments that are legitimate from Odessa to other countries that are affected by the loss of supply of ~35% of global grain supplies. The impact on the 3rd world in particular needs to be highlighted to get more reaction from the UN which has been moribund in it's actions for the last 2 months.
The Kilo's remain a threat of causing regional vindictive damage. It is a hallmark of Russian military doctrine that they do not care about civilians, they never have, and for that alone, they have no legitimate place in the UN, which is to the continued shame of the UNGA. Pity Ukraine doesn't have a squadron of S-3's. In the absence of dedicated ASW assets, it would appear that the benefit of drone ISR with high res side-looking SAR would seem to be worthwhile, coupled with drone platforms with standoff missile cape, with warheads that may be effective against a snorting target, that is an open question.