Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Potentially even take-over Moscow itself. Roll up Belarus and bring a democracy there, the people want it (in contrast to all the other Western invasions in ME/NA).
Putin did pull that much power to himself, there will be nobody "in-charge", when Putin dies (see the plans to have the FSB head temporary replace Putin during his surgery, instead of the legal required prime minister). As such, after Putin, nobody will be prepared to push the Nukes button (apart from the manual background process involved to extend the button push into a missile launch also refusing to act).
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Yep, your proposal would be the kindergarten solution.
Whenever you give the bully (part of) what it wants, the bullying goes on. So, better stop the bully.
Don't forget, we have another Authoritarian bully in China, reaching for eternal power, equally eager to invade another free country and claiming all the Southern China Sea as its territorial coastal waters. There is only one option to stop such a bully: Show how Russia gets destroyed as a consequence of its aggression (just like Germany with WWII).
Oh, and use the confiscated Russian possessions outside Russia, as well as the Russian natural resources sales, to rebuild Ukraine according to Western quality standards.
Whenever you give the bully (part of) what it wants, the bullying goes on. So, better stop the bully.
Don't forget, we have another Authoritarian bully in China, reaching for eternal power, equally eager to invade another free country and claiming all the Southern China Sea as its territorial coastal waters. There is only one option to stop such a bully: Show how Russia gets destroyed as a consequence of its aggression (just like Germany with WWII).
Oh, and use the confiscated Russian possessions outside Russia, as well as the Russian natural resources sales, to rebuild Ukraine according to Western quality standards.
NUTLOOSE
Totally agree with your sentiments BUT I say again RUSSIA will not give in and accept a defeat -they will not give up Donbas.
like everyone else I would love to see Ukraine win and the Russians go home with their tail between their legs and Putin deposed.
unless I am reading the wrong analysis the chances of this happening is next to zero.
the best likelihood is a stalemate which could go on for months/years?
thus the misery extends!
is this a good solution?
Totally agree with your sentiments BUT I say again RUSSIA will not give in and accept a defeat -they will not give up Donbas.
like everyone else I would love to see Ukraine win and the Russians go home with their tail between their legs and Putin deposed.
unless I am reading the wrong analysis the chances of this happening is next to zero.
the best likelihood is a stalemate which could go on for months/years?
thus the misery extends!
is this a good solution?
Retreat is in their DNA since the cold war ended.
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That depends on Putins future, if he is subject to a special operation, under the guise of a cancer operation and is replaced then I would think the writing would be on the wall for the new incumbent.
You have to remember those that may wish to depose him are against the war, so there will be no way they will wish to continue it, the sticking point may be those areas they controlled prior to the war part 2, those taken in part 1, ie Crimea etc.
The rest could simply be pulled back out of Ukraine stating the objectives have been attained.. they did after all state they did not wish to remain in country early on.
The Russian economy must be down the tubes at the moment, and it will only get worse, something that Russia will need to address along with their severely depleted and demoralised army.
To fight a war for a country the size of Russia and have to rely on private military resources such as Wagner has to tell you something about the state of play with their own forces, and to pull in home troops from the far east etc I can only think is to prevent the true state of affairs from spreading rapidly if they were to use troops from the densely populated areas of the country?
As for some of the comments re the recent uptake of Conscripts going to Ukraine, I would imagine they will go elsewhere to release better trained troops to head to the war if that is indeed to goal.
I would imagine Russia's arms exports will also be severely hit after the Wests demonstration as to their state of play verses modern western weapons. I have seen pics of their T90's knocked out in Ukraine, and that is their modern stuff.
You have to remember those that may wish to depose him are against the war, so there will be no way they will wish to continue it, the sticking point may be those areas they controlled prior to the war part 2, those taken in part 1, ie Crimea etc.
The rest could simply be pulled back out of Ukraine stating the objectives have been attained.. they did after all state they did not wish to remain in country early on.
The Russian economy must be down the tubes at the moment, and it will only get worse, something that Russia will need to address along with their severely depleted and demoralised army.
To fight a war for a country the size of Russia and have to rely on private military resources such as Wagner has to tell you something about the state of play with their own forces, and to pull in home troops from the far east etc I can only think is to prevent the true state of affairs from spreading rapidly if they were to use troops from the densely populated areas of the country?
As for some of the comments re the recent uptake of Conscripts going to Ukraine, I would imagine they will go elsewhere to release better trained troops to head to the war if that is indeed to goal.
I would imagine Russia's arms exports will also be severely hit after the Wests demonstration as to their state of play verses modern western weapons. I have seen pics of their T90's knocked out in Ukraine, and that is their modern stuff.
In WW2 it went from being one of the Axis powers that started the most blood-thirsty war of all time, to fighting against Axis Germany but keeping control of the countries it brutally obtained whilst it was an Axis power, for many decades after. Today it talks of the 'Great Patriotic War' but is less than clear as to which role it is celebrating and seems to have erased its own mind as to when it fought as an Axis power alongside Germany or how it helped to start WW2.
Duplicitous behaviour, of the most egregious kind, is never far away from the collective Russian mind. From pretending to 'save' Poland, to modern little-green-men, soldiers-on-holiday, to signing a security guarantee with a country and then invading that very same country, Russia's actual behaviour is in its DNA.
What could undermine any such victory narrative would be a long, drawn out attempted occupation in which tens or hundreds of Russians are killed or wounded every week. Eventually most people in Russia would end up knowing one of these people, and may begin to question the whole raison d'etre of any occupation.
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An example of a bag of wind dictator ramping up his own self importance in front of a rent a crowd.
An example of a bag of wind dictator ramping up his own self importance in front of a rent a crowd.
Pretty sure that Russia is no stranger to retreats, re-writing of history, or even changing sides mid-war.
In WW2 it went from being one of the Axis powers that started the most blood-thirsty war of all time, to fighting against Axis Germany but keeping control of the countries it brutally obtained whilst it was an Axis power, for many decades after. Today it talks of the 'Great Patriotic War' but is less than clear as to which role it is celebrating and seems to have erased its own mind as to when it fought as an Axis power alongside Germany or how it helped to start WW2.
Duplicitous behaviour, of the most egregious kind, is never far away from the collective Russian mind. From pretending to 'save' Poland, to modern little-green-men, soldiers-on-holiday, to signing a security guarantee with a country and then invading that very same country, Russia's actual behaviour is in its DNA.
In WW2 it went from being one of the Axis powers that started the most blood-thirsty war of all time, to fighting against Axis Germany but keeping control of the countries it brutally obtained whilst it was an Axis power, for many decades after. Today it talks of the 'Great Patriotic War' but is less than clear as to which role it is celebrating and seems to have erased its own mind as to when it fought as an Axis power alongside Germany or how it helped to start WW2.
Duplicitous behaviour, of the most egregious kind, is never far away from the collective Russian mind. From pretending to 'save' Poland, to modern little-green-men, soldiers-on-holiday, to signing a security guarantee with a country and then invading that very same country, Russia's actual behaviour is in its DNA.
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was a non-aggression pact between the Reich and USSR that enabled them to partition Poland between them, it didn't mean USSR signed up to the Axis Powers.
Of course the reasons Hitler justified invading Poland are now the exact same reasons Pootin has justified invading Ukraine......
In our local village hotel, just a little north of Munich, we had a Ukrainian family from Kiev staying. As of last week they've packed up and gone home to Kiev.
If Russia is set to finally prevail in Ukraine they've not convinced everyone.
That things are not going Russia's way is clear enough to those not mainlining Kremlin propaganda.
The one thing Russia has in it's favour is the country's huge supply of natural wealth.
Putin, or whoever replaces him will not starve, but if Europe does succeeed in getting off Russian oil and gas Russia will then need to work out a pretty swift accomodation with another customer and the main candidate there is China.
And, after the events of recent weeks, I rather fancy that Russia is going to turn out to be very much the junior partner of that new relationship.
If Russia is set to finally prevail in Ukraine they've not convinced everyone.
That things are not going Russia's way is clear enough to those not mainlining Kremlin propaganda.
The one thing Russia has in it's favour is the country's huge supply of natural wealth.
Putin, or whoever replaces him will not starve, but if Europe does succeeed in getting off Russian oil and gas Russia will then need to work out a pretty swift accomodation with another customer and the main candidate there is China.
And, after the events of recent weeks, I rather fancy that Russia is going to turn out to be very much the junior partner of that new relationship.
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Interview with a Ukrainian pilot as to how things are going Air Force wise.
https://video.snapstream.net/Play/3S...n=k62r5qbojafo
https://video.snapstream.net/Play/3S...n=k62r5qbojafo
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And America's excuse for invading North Korea.
And America's excuse for invading Vietnam.
And America's excuse for invading Panama.
And America's excuse for invading Grenada.
And America's excuse for invading Iraq.
And America's excuse for invading Afghanistan.
There's always an excuse. Usually the same one.
And America's excuse for invading Vietnam.
And America's excuse for invading Panama.
And America's excuse for invading Grenada.
And America's excuse for invading Iraq.
And America's excuse for invading Afghanistan.
There's always an excuse. Usually the same one.
Ah, dear Prunus Dessicatus (may I call you Pru?)
Please get your history right. North Korea invaded S. Korea, and nearly overran Seoul before the UNITED NATIONS forces pushed the dictator Kim family beck where they belonged.
Please get your history right. N.Vietnam started to try to impose their version of Marxist-Leninism on their southern neighbours (a corrupt lot, but that's no excuse) The legitimate government invited the US in as advisers, and it escalated from there. There was no invasion, US soldiers didn't set foot in N. Vietman
Arguable. Did they pack up and leave after the operation?
Same again
I'll give you that one. Not that Saddam didn't deserve it, blatantly ignoring several UN resolutions. The gross error was going in with no 'what next' plan.
The excuse was 3,000 dead in the WTC destruction, and the Afghans happily sheltering the guys who planned it, and planned lots more. Mind you, they could have taken lessons from history and said 'Now what' before going in. Identifying and bombing the training camps, and staying out might have been a cheaper long term plan.
As above. Different ones each time. Maybe similar outcomes.
And America's excuse for invading North Korea
And America's excuse for invading Vietnam.
And America's excuse for invading Panama.
And America's excuse for invading Grenada.
And America's excuse for invading Iraq.
And America's excuse for invading Afghanistan.
There's always an excuse. Usually the same one.
Last edited by T28B; 5th May 2022 at 15:44. Reason: spacing errors cleaned up
So called whataboutism. By doing it he tries to make unwelcome to him parts of the debate disappear faster.
And, after the events of recent weeks, I rather fancy that Russia is going to turn out to be very much the junior partner of that new relationship.
Arguable. Did they pack up and leave after the operation?
Same again
The excuse was 3,000 dead in the WTC destruction, and the Afghans happily sheltering the guys who planned it, and planned lots more. Mind you, they could have taken lessons from history and said 'Now what' before going in. Identifying and bombing the training camps, and staying out might have been a cheaper long term plan.
Should we also invade USA for harboring hundreds of Nazi's after WWII (and a host of other countries for that matter, Russia included)? And before you go about "those were only scientist and forced to work for Nazi's" that's a bull. Lets not forget bunch of big USA companies working with Nazi Germany before and during the War