Is Ukraine about to have a war?
We are of the same mind. The Akatsiya, alone and moving in the open, is a prime target for the Russians. Likely it’s been “shooting-and-scooting”: If they want to survive, the gun crew has to strike a balance between staying in position long enough to provide effective fire support to friendly ground forces, without lingering so long they get discovered by Russian drones. The Russians are ceaselessly hunting Ukrainian heavy weapons, and their rockets, artillery, and missiles can strike anywhere here, at any time. The fields beside us are pockmarked with blast impacts, and the tails of dozens of dud rockets stick out of the earth as if planted by some mad farmer.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
Re artillery, I still cannot understand the reluctance of the west to give Ukraine long range MLRS weapons,, it would enable Ukraine to target Russian artillery from well outside Russias normal counter artillery range. A simple understanding, use these weapons at anytime without the wests agreement to strike Russian territory will cease any future hardware support or replenishments full stop.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
An interesting read explaining the Ukrainians request for artillery and the methodology behind those requests.
Pukin is making a rod for his successors back. There will not be warm fuzzies emanating from the people that have been "liberated" by Moscow, it is reminiscent of Stalin's oppression of the Ukrainians and his own people. That Russians seem to hanker for the good ol' days under Stalin is telling in itself.
Pressganging the locals, forced deportation of children, mass graves, rape and destruction of the cities and villages is not a great way to avoid long-term insurrections.
Wouldn't be putting much stock on the troops turning up happy with plunder and tales to tell; the dead tend to be mute.
Pressganging the locals, forced deportation of children, mass graves, rape and destruction of the cities and villages is not a great way to avoid long-term insurrections.
Wouldn't be putting much stock on the troops turning up happy with plunder and tales to tell; the dead tend to be mute.
After its initial successes (or Russia's failures), it does appear that Ukraine is stuck in somewhat of a tactical/strategic rut in what remains of Luhansk. They seem to have thrown untold men and materiel into Severodonetsk for no apparent good reason, and its now being reported that the Russians have destroyed all of the river crossings at the Ukrainian's backs. As others have noted I cannot see much merit in attempting to match Russia's artillery superiority, round for round or rocket for rocket. Defense-in-depth seems much more appropriate in the circumstances; they've already demonstrated their ability to effectively fight this way.
Regarding western supplies, I do wonder if we are rationing them for some reason e.g. so as not to lose too much in the event of a local or wider collapse, or (more positively) to maintain a pretence that the Ukrainians did it mostly by themselves in the event of a Russian collapse or withdrawal? The 'rainy day' argument seems moot now, given Russia has effectively been nullified as a conventional threat.
Regarding western supplies, I do wonder if we are rationing them for some reason e.g. so as not to lose too much in the event of a local or wider collapse, or (more positively) to maintain a pretence that the Ukrainians did it mostly by themselves in the event of a Russian collapse or withdrawal? The 'rainy day' argument seems moot now, given Russia has effectively been nullified as a conventional threat.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
Or maybe not, a reason that they may be comitted to holding the town.
Russian SU25 at work.
Russian SU25 at work.
Last edited by NutLoose; 14th Jun 2022 at 11:42.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
Moscovites, the ruling class, dont give a **** about them.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
Wants against reality, a frank and educational read.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...pm_source=main
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...pm_source=main
Re artillery, I still cannot understand the reluctance of the west to give Ukraine long range MLRS weapons,, it would enable Ukraine to target Russian artillery from well outside Russias normal counter artillery range. A simple understanding, use these weapons at anytime without the wests agreement to strike Russian territory will cease any future hardware support or replenishments full stop.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
Do you know what your enemy is shooting at you?
Aviation Content here: MANPADS proliferation continues to be a concern (and it has been for a while, going as far back in my memory as Stingers in Afghanistan in the 80's)
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...les-increasing
Worth a read.
For Nutty: nice piece in terms of perspective.
As to the later tidbits regarding the area around Karkhiv, and the Russian artillery shooting from inside Russian territory: ALCM is a possible answer to that.
The question is, does Ukraine have Russian vintage ALCM's on any of their aircraft? Since Russia has violated Ukraine's border left, right, and center, Ukraine hitting a military target (artillery position) within Russia that is firing into Ukraine is well within bounds.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...les-increasing
Over the past decade, there has been a significant increase in the illicit trade of advanced Chinese-designed shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, also known as man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, according to a new report from the independent monitoring group Small Arms Survey.
For Nutty: nice piece in terms of perspective.
The entireactive U.S. Army has 330 artillery pieces (M777 and M109 self-propelled guns). Ukraine is asking for 1,500.
Ukraine has hit a wall in Kharkiv—the closer it gets to the Russian border, the more exposed its forces are to artillery from inside Russian territory, where they sit safe and well-supplied.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Jun 2022 at 14:48.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
Your numbers are close enough if all ten divisions were heavy divisions. (Mechanized infantry or armor).
But they are not.
Three of them are light divisions. (Granted, the 101st is loaded with helicopters).
101st Air Assault (Fort Campbell) and 82d Airborne (Fort Bragg) divisions are not heavy divisions, nor is the 10th Mountain Division. (Fort Drum)
I'll suggest that your overestimation is based on assuming that their complement of heavy artillery / MLRS matches that of the seven heavy divisions. (Cav/Armor/Mech Infantry). It does not.
(The last time I saw the 82d's ToE was a long time ago, but they didn't have a Heavy Division's complement of heavy artillery - while they may have had an upgrade since then, IIRC they used the 105mm howitzer which is air droppable).
101st's Divarty looks like this:
- 1st Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
- 2d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
- 3d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
- Battery C, 5th Battalion, 8th Field Artillery (attached 18th Field Artillery Brigade M198 155mm towed howitzer unit)
10th Mountain Division's Divarty looks like this:
- Headquarters & Headquarters Battery
- 1st Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
- 2nd Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
- Battery E, 7th Field Artillery (8 × M198 155 mm towed howitzer)
3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
So yeah, he's still off by a bit.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Jun 2022 at 20:50.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
- Russia says it will give Ukrainian fighters holed up in a chemical plant in the encircled city of Severodonetsk a chance to surrender
- A humanitarian corridor to evacuate some of the hundreds of civilians trapped with them will be opened on Wednesday
Yeah, tell that to the surrendered fighters from Mariupol, some of who are sitting with death sentences hanging over their heads, and the others that possibly no one actually knows where they are.
The reason Russia left a bridge standing was I believe in the hope that they would all withdraw over it. That was never going to happen so I doubt the above will either, it will become another Mariupol tying down Russian forces, one does wonder what heavy equipment Ukraine now has trapped, though the dropped bridge span looks like a temporary one could be thrown across it.
36. When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
…”In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine is simply opting not to use the unfamiliar Western systems. For example, despite receiving hundreds of Switchblade drones, some units prefer to use commercial drones rigged with explosives that are more user-friendly.”….
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,923
Received 2,847 Likes
on
1,217 Posts
When a Trench becomes a ditch..