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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 13th Jun 2022, 20:48
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Am I being particularly thick, but I see no mention of drones in that article ?
From the article "They're Wiping Us From the Earth" (The whole article, excerpted from Rolling Stone) by Mac William Bishop
We are of the same mind. The Akatsiya, alone and moving in the open, is a prime target for the Russians. Likely it’s been “shooting-and-scooting”: If they want to survive, the gun crew has to strike a balance between staying in position long enough to provide effective fire support to friendly ground forces, without lingering so long they get discovered by Russian drones. The Russians are ceaselessly hunting Ukrainian heavy weapons, and their rockets, artillery, and missiles can strike anywhere here, at any time. The fields beside us are pockmarked with blast impacts, and the tails of dozens of dud rockets stick out of the earth as if planted by some mad farmer.
I can now no longer read free articles on Rolling Stone, but that's no great loss.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 20:49
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Originally Posted by peter we
Thats not correct, there are 400k veterans of the war since 2014
Please let the author know that. I don't know where he derived his stats, nor where you derive yours.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 22:16
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The evaporating Russian army….

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 23:31
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The evaporating Russian army….
I had previously thought that major losses - cf MV Moskva - would push a major uprising, but presumably incorrect - so far, at least. I simply wonder now when an uprising of Russian mothers will be enough.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 23:50
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Re artillery, I still cannot understand the reluctance of the west to give Ukraine long range MLRS weapons,, it would enable Ukraine to target Russian artillery from well outside Russias normal counter artillery range. A simple understanding, use these weapons at anytime without the wests agreement to strike Russian territory will cease any future hardware support or replenishments full stop.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 00:08
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An interesting read explaining the Ukrainians request for artillery and the methodology behind those requests.


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Old 14th Jun 2022, 02:19
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The evaporating Russian army….
Pukin is making a rod for his successors back. There will not be warm fuzzies emanating from the people that have been "liberated" by Moscow, it is reminiscent of Stalin's oppression of the Ukrainians and his own people. That Russians seem to hanker for the good ol' days under Stalin is telling in itself.

Pressganging the locals, forced deportation of children, mass graves, rape and destruction of the cities and villages is not a great way to avoid long-term insurrections.

Wouldn't be putting much stock on the troops turning up happy with plunder and tales to tell; the dead tend to be mute.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 08:49
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After its initial successes (or Russia's failures), it does appear that Ukraine is stuck in somewhat of a tactical/strategic rut in what remains of Luhansk. They seem to have thrown untold men and materiel into Severodonetsk for no apparent good reason, and its now being reported that the Russians have destroyed all of the river crossings at the Ukrainian's backs. As others have noted I cannot see much merit in attempting to match Russia's artillery superiority, round for round or rocket for rocket. Defense-in-depth seems much more appropriate in the circumstances; they've already demonstrated their ability to effectively fight this way.

Regarding western supplies, I do wonder if we are rationing them for some reason e.g. so as not to lose too much in the event of a local or wider collapse, or (more positively) to maintain a pretence that the Ukrainians did it mostly by themselves in the event of a Russian collapse or withdrawal? The 'rainy day' argument seems moot now, given Russia has effectively been nullified as a conventional threat.

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Old 14th Jun 2022, 10:39
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Or maybe not, a reason that they may be comitted to holding the town.



Russian SU25 at work.


Last edited by NutLoose; 14th Jun 2022 at 11:42.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 11:35
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Well worth listening too

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/...source=w_share
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 11:38
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I had previously thought that major losses - cf MV Moskva - would push a major uprising, but presumably incorrect - so far, at least. I simply wonder now when an uprising of Russian mothers will be enough.
all but a handful of the dead are dirt poor ethnic minoritys from distant colonies.
Moscovites, the ruling class, dont give a **** about them.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 12:18
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Wants against reality, a frank and educational read.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...pm_source=main
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 13:35
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Re artillery, I still cannot understand the reluctance of the west to give Ukraine long range MLRS weapons,, it would enable Ukraine to target Russian artillery from well outside Russias normal counter artillery range. A simple understanding, use these weapons at anytime without the wests agreement to strike Russian territory will cease any future hardware support or replenishments full stop.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.
The MLRS supplied have a range up to 70 km and the M777 artillery pieces up to 40 km. This is ( I read ) beyond the range of Russian artillery, but obviously not their rockets.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 14:37
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Do you know what your enemy is shooting at you?

Aviation Content here: MANPADS proliferation continues to be a concern (and it has been for a while, going as far back in my memory as Stingers in Afghanistan in the 80's)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...les-increasing
Over the past decade, there has been a significant increase in the illicit trade of advanced Chinese-designed shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, also known as man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, according to a new report from the independent monitoring group Small Arms Survey.
Worth a read.
For Nutty: nice piece in terms of perspective.
The entireactive U.S. Army has 330 artillery pieces (M777 and M109 self-propelled guns). Ukraine is asking for 1,500.
As to the later tidbits regarding the area around Karkhiv, and the Russian artillery shooting from inside Russian territory: ALCM is a possible answer to that.
Ukraine has hit a wall in Kharkiv—the closer it gets to the Russian border, the more exposed its forces are to artillery from inside Russian territory, where they sit safe and well-supplied.
The question is, does Ukraine have Russian vintage ALCM's on any of their aircraft? Since Russia has violated Ukraine's border left, right, and center, Ukraine hitting a military target (artillery position) within Russia that is firing into Ukraine is well within bounds.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Jun 2022 at 14:48.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 17:44
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US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.

The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..

That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.

A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html

Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 18:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC
US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.
I suggest that you take it up with the author. I won't comment on your assumption of all divisions having a full complement of equipment. I don't share that assumption.
Your numbers are close enough if all ten divisions were heavy divisions. (Mechanized infantry or armor).
But they are not.
Three of them are light divisions. (Granted, the 101st is loaded with helicopters).
101st Air Assault (Fort Campbell) and 82d Airborne (Fort Bragg) divisions are not heavy divisions, nor is the 10th Mountain Division. (Fort Drum)
I'll suggest that your overestimation is based on assuming that their complement of heavy artillery / MLRS matches that of the seven heavy divisions. (Cav/Armor/Mech Infantry). It does not.

(The last time I saw the 82d's ToE was a long time ago, but they didn't have a Heavy Division's complement of heavy artillery - while they may have had an upgrade since then, IIRC they used the 105mm howitzer which is air droppable).

101st's Divarty looks like this:
  • 1st Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • 2d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • 3d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • Battery C, 5th Battalion, 8th Field Artillery (attached 18th Field Artillery Brigade M198 155mm towed howitzer unit)

10th Mountain Division's Divarty looks like this:
  • Headquarters & Headquarters Battery
    • 1st Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
    • 2nd Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
    • Battery E, 7th Field Artillery (8 × M198 155 mm towed howitzer)
With the above in mind, let's multiply your numbers by .7 by assuming that the 7 heavy divisions are equipped as you surmise:
3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
That's about: 504 155mm howitzers and about 189 MLRS. (plus or minus a bit).
So yeah, he's still off by a bit.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Jun 2022 at 20:50.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 21:34
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  1. Russia says it will give Ukrainian fighters holed up in a chemical plant in the encircled city of Severodonetsk a chance to surrender
  2. A humanitarian corridor to evacuate some of the hundreds of civilians trapped with them will be opened on Wednesday
BBC News…


Yeah, tell that to the surrendered fighters from Mariupol, some of who are sitting with death sentences hanging over their heads, and the others that possibly no one actually knows where they are.

The reason Russia left a bridge standing was I believe in the hope that they would all withdraw over it. That was never going to happen so I doubt the above will either, it will become another Mariupol tying down Russian forces, one does wonder what heavy equipment Ukraine now has trapped, though the dropped bridge span looks like a temporary one could be thrown across it.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 23:45
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The reason Russia left a bridge standing was I believe in the hope that they would all withdraw over it.
Isn't that in Sun Tzu's book?
36. When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 06:43
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…”In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine is simply opting not to use the unfamiliar Western systems. For example, despite receiving hundreds of Switchblade drones, some units prefer to use commercial drones rigged with explosives that are more user-friendly.”….
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 12:14
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When a Trench becomes a ditch..

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