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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 8th May 2022, 06:16
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Blimey, a Russian military expert tells them the realities of mobilisation and how bad their equipment is on Russian State TV

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...36461595242498
Pfff, the first realistic Russian expert opinion coming from Russia, as I did see. And, TBH, I think, he is far too optimistic with 90 days to form a new tank battalion. Let alone, he seems to forget the "reserves" are plundered for everything that might be valuable on the scrap market. I hope, he is not deported to Siberia, given his comments on (national) TV might not be welcomed by the current Putin based regime.
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Old 8th May 2022, 06:24
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
What an absolute pile of garbage! Do you honestly think that ANYONE will treat a "coalition of western forces" attacking Russia as anything other than NATO? Take over Moscow? Are you stark raving mad? Have you ever heard of a thing called a strategic nuclear deterrent? Well guess who has the largest example on the planet? I think that the total annihilation of the human race would be far more likely than any cancer outcome for Putin if your little insane theory/fantasy were ever to play out.
Not that stupid, if you think any further than "just waiting", being stalled with only commenting and no solutions.

You need to have a suitable goal, bringing a solution you want, and from there you start to scale down towards a realistic version of your goal vs. how to realize that.

About nukes: TBH, I am not that scared about that. Russia does have a lot of old stuff of that, and, given the chronic lack of money (In the end Russia was quite a small economy), I seriously doubt, all those deterrent "rockets" are really functional. You need to put in quite a lot of purified Uranium/Plutonium, which is pretty costly to produce. Let alone, firing of these nukes is not a one-man-button show, but a process, where more sane people are involved than the current "head-of-state" with Parkinson and Cancer. Let's not forget, a erroneous nuke firing has been avoided in the past because somebody in the process did have brains.

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Old 8th May 2022, 06:26
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
It seems that "setting up a democracy" worked only once, in Japan, and it required two atomic bombs
Germany after WWII the same, Spain/Portugal with external pressure, even Jan 6, 2021 got the US democracy reinstated.
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Old 8th May 2022, 06:36
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Furthermore, the notion of "setting up a democracy" is mythological BS. Supporting a democracy like Ukraine, yes, but trying set up a democracy where it does not exist and the people have demonstrated no resolve keep it, is just plain nonsense and a waste. (re: Iraq and Afghanistan, et al.)

On the other hand, in the case of supporting Ukraine itself, I don't give a flying &*$% whether Putin considers it NATO or not. In retrospect, I think western nations (e.g., USA) will be ashamed that they let Putin's threats limit our actions in support of Ukraine. I understand the caution, but Putin's words alone have delayed and diminished potential rescue of a courageous democracy with tremendous loss of life.
Setting up a democracy, because you want that, is going to fail. Supporting a population to set up their democracy is certainly realistic. Have another read, and I wrote to set up a democracy in Belarus, not in Russia. Russians are simply too much indoctrinated with Putin propaganda to have them ready for a transition to a democracy. Ukraine just needs some more support to come to a real democracy, the basics are there, just implementing further.

I think, the best situation for Russian Federation would be a break-up in the individual states, and from there, the states need their time to revert from dictatorship thinking to something like "the wishes of the people". Give them 50 years for that. And from there on, these individual states may federalize again, something along the mechanism of the EU. And, since each of these Russia break-up states are too small to exercise war aggression, things will get safer for NATO (-countries). Next step, seeing what happens with Russia, maybe Hungarians and Serbians start to scratch their head and realize that the way they operate might not be that well for the population. I just takes a lot of time.
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Old 8th May 2022, 06:41
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Originally Posted by fdr
...... The analysis of Russian casualty handling in Grozny seems markedly different to today, and the fact that accurate ATWs are being faced in the field as well as the historical low point in manpower quality and quantity suggest that Russia is having a hard time of it.
.....
Actually, there is a big perceptual difference with Grozny/Chechnya and Kyiv/Ukraine for the Russian army. In Chechnya, they were "winning" and with Kyiv/Ukraine they were losing all over the place. Implying the people locked up in their armored vehicles, pretty well knew, they have zero chance to survive, the moment they get hit, so fleeing would be the only option, etc.
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Old 8th May 2022, 07:13
  #5246 (permalink)  
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Seems to be the first confirmed TB-2 aviation kill, even if on the ground.

Snake Island also seems to becoming another meme along the lines of Kherson airfield - Russia just keeping on reinforcing failure…

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Old 8th May 2022, 07:17
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Just watched that with the Russians claiming it as an attack on Ukrainian assets. So which is it?
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Old 8th May 2022, 07:43
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
Pfff, the first realistic Russian expert opinion coming from Russia, as I did see. And, TBH, I think, he is far too optimistic with 90 days to form a new tank battalion. Let alone, he seems to forget the "reserves" are plundered for everything that might be valuable on the scrap market. I hope, he is not deported to Siberia, given his comments on (national) TV might not be welcomed by the current Putin based regime.
Widescreen
90 days is highly optimistic as you say to form an armoured division from scratch, and his comments on the state of the reserves is interesting, and as you say you wonder what state they are in. I am surprised given the state control of the media that he felt he could say those things without it being edited out or shouted down, and therefore believe he was given room to say these things before the broadcast or he is a very brave individual.

Nutlose
That explosion of the SPG was very dramatic, there will be a few dead and indeed deaf gunners as a result. There did not seem to be any ranging shots either, so highly accurate if artillery counter battery fire. If this is the result of the new NATO supplied artillery then a lot of Russian artillery men maybe joining there T72 comrades on the train / plane home in a body bag. Also as an observation there skills at concealment were also remarkably poor, as they had obviously run one of the SPG,s into the field in the foreground leaving heavy track marks indicating their presence. By comparison I read how German tank crews in Normandy carefully backed armour into position at night and then realigned any damaged vegetation due to worries about fighter-bombers before daylight. Old skills needing to re taught.

Cheers
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Old 8th May 2022, 07:52
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Western weapons manufacturers must be gaining loads of information about the use of their weapons in the combat field against Soviet technology which they would have never gained in a long time.
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Old 8th May 2022, 07:58
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Originally Posted by N707ZS
Western weapons manufacturers must be gaining loads of information about the use of their weapons in the combat field against Soviet technology which they would have never gained in a long time.
The Russians will be learning too, if they have any sense. Their military has shown a lack of prowess on the battlefield. Expect a total shake up which is potentially bad for the West. We certainly don't want a Russian military that is capable.
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Old 8th May 2022, 08:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Seems to be the first confirmed TB-2 aviation kill, even if on the ground.

Snake Island also seems to becoming another meme along the lines of Kherson airfield - Russia just keeping on reinforcing failure…
The Russians seem to have a total lack of situational awareness on the battlefield. Troops milling about around that helo. I thought it was always get in fast, get troops out fast, fly away fast.
Loitering is a bad idea.
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Old 8th May 2022, 08:02
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Tsk tsk, I thought the rule of the road was to keep left to avoid anyone following the road in the opposite direction….
What I have noticed is the modern `low` is no where near the `WW2 low`. Maybe this is due to jets being faster or maybe just old lessons forgotten?
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Old 8th May 2022, 08:40
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Originally Posted by antheads
World War III, here we come.
???
Russia is massively struggling to get ahold of Ukraine. They don't have a jota left to deal with anyone else.
That is why they are thinking of mobilising. To prevent what appears more and more inevitable.
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Old 8th May 2022, 08:48
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Originally Posted by uxb99
The Russians will be learning too, if they have any sense. Their military has shown a lack of prowess on the battlefield. Expect a total shake up which is potentially bad for the West. We certainly don't want a Russian military that is capable.
Not so easy in the cold reality out there. There was a thread wondering how they can have such a big military (read: So many tanks&planes) with that little budget. I think we are more and more understanding how this is possible. Lots of stuff only usable and capable on paper. Little training. Little spread and upgrade of expensive sensor and precision capabilities. Not much of the expensive C&C stuff. Not much logistics stuff. All that pesky and expensive crap where you are wondering if you really need all that for a war. Lesson to be learned: Yes you do. A tank without a bowser and a truck to supply food and ammo and without intel&Situational awareness/C&C isn't much more that a nice and cheap target for the opponent.
If Russia wants to have a military with up- to- date/up- to- task logistics/C&C/intel/sensor/precision capabilities which would be required to sustain an effective attack with its current budget it would have something like one third their current number of planes and tanks. And would end up like something like the combined forces of Uk + Germany.
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Old 8th May 2022, 08:58
  #5255 (permalink)  
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Joli,

If you watch the video it’s definitely Snake Island which, even after the strikes, is still Russian held. Even if Ukraine decided to land troops from a hell they wouldn’t have loitered around in a hot-fire zone.

Its also outside artillery range and there has been no indication of Russia deploying live armed IR video linked UAVs.
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Old 8th May 2022, 09:00
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Originally Posted by uxb99
The Russians will be learning too, if they have any sense. Their military has shown a lack of prowess on the battlefield. Expect a total shake up which is potentially bad for the West. We certainly don't want a Russian military that is capable.
TBH, I don't think, they have much options to rebuild their army.

Whatever outcome the Ukraine invasion has, there is no economy left in Russia to fund new army stuff. We should not forget, the current state of technology of NATO stuff is 1, or even maybe 2 generations ahead of what Russia has. So, everything needs to be developed nearly from scratch, and that does cost a fortune. NATO stuff is easily 2-4 times as expensive as the current "modern" Russian stuff. And from that "modern" Russian stuff, we already know, it is not that close to NATO tech capabilities.
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Old 8th May 2022, 09:41
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It's claimed that the Ukrainians took out another Russian patrol boat last night in the vicinity of Snake Island.

"Yesterday evening, on May 7th, another Raptor-class patrol boat was hit multiple times and destroyed by Ukrainian TB2 UCAVs around Snake Island. This one took multiple hits"

The video is a mash up of different clips so treat with caution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

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Old 8th May 2022, 10:05
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Originally Posted by uxb99
The Russians will be learning too, if they have any sense. Their military has shown a lack of prowess on the battlefield. Expect a total shake up which is potentially bad for the West. We certainly don't want a Russian military that is capable.
True but always from a point of catch up and the west will also be learning and adapting, plus you have to remember what Russia has seen in action is only a small part of what is in the NATO cupboard, no F35, no M1 Abrams, Leopard 2, Challenger 2, etc, while they will have observed them in the likes of Afghanistan or Iraq, they were not really deployed against a “modern” military like Russias.
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Old 8th May 2022, 10:32
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Before and after views of Snake Island post strike.



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Old 8th May 2022, 11:04
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Oh the irony, Russia is celebrating the victory day with the face of an Ukrainian pilot.

or maybe the russkies have given up and admitted the reality


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