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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Mar 2022, 16:47
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I don't get it, they are helicopters, who in the right mind would stick them on an airfield and not disperse them to surrounding fields, if fuel and arming are issues, set up refuelling locations in fields and separate arming points, at least do not park them on a concrete apron in pretty lines where blast damage would be increased, at least on grass the ground and mud might absorb some of any near misses and being dispersed lessens your losses. Talk about over confident and amateur hour.
Whilst observing rule number 1 of arguing tactics (don't), there are reasons not to disperse, comms and logs being the two big ones. We (as in British forces) still exercise in dispersed and concentrated locations so there could be reasons why they were where they were.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 16:52
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Do you just take anything movable and/or interesting, unload the ammunition maybe then try to destroy them in place? And how would you do that? Rip out the wiring, pour petrol inside and ignite it? put sand in the fuel tank?
You mean unload all those 20 kg shells from their carousel and then stack them nicely in the .....mud !!!!

Crew may have grenades which they could throw in amongst shells, but that would only give them a few seconds to jump off and get clear. Too little unless you were very foolhardy /careless ,of your life; Not going to be many petrol-fuelled vehicles in the front-line with tanks
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 16:53
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Originally Posted by Recc
Ukraine's article 51 right to self-defence imposes no explicit restrictions on where it can use force. Given the clear-cut nature of the aggression it faces, Ukraine has the legal authority to target Russian military forces anywhere that they pose a threat, including in Russia or in international waters.
Thank you. I would have thought they were sitting ducks. Is there a good reason not to hit them hard?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 16:57
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I don't get it, they are helicopters, who in the right mind would stick them on an airfield and not disperse them to the surrounding fields.
If fuel and arming are issues, set up refuelling locations in fields and separate arming points, at least do not park them on a concrete apron in pretty lines where the blast damage would be increased.
Surrounding fields and earth might absorb some of any near misses and being dispersed lessen your losses.
.
The famous mud as illustrated in your post at 01:35 may prevent that and force you onto the concrete.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:00
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Originally Posted by TURIN
Thank you. I would have thought they were sitting ducks. Is there a good reason not to hit them hard?
Pure speculation: Ukraine doesn't seem to have many/any long-range missiles. If Russia is supposedly short of PGM, Ukraine would likely have even fewer;
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:06
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A shortage of something to hit them with that has a reasonable chance of success?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:14
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
A shortage of something to hit them with that has a reasonable chance of success?
Maybe a few anti-ship missiles have been snuck in too? I wouldn't be surprised.

Even so, they won't risk coming too close to shore otherwise the Ukrainian artillery may ruin their day. They did damage a Russian ship a week or two back.

I wonder how good Russian navy crews are at damage control? I suspect not very.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:15
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I don't get it, they are helicopters, who in the right mind would stick them on an airfield and not disperse them to the surrounding fields.
If fuel and arming are issues, set up refuelling locations in fields and separate arming points, at least do not park them on a concrete apron in pretty lines where the blast damage would be increased.
Surrounding fields and earth might absorb some of any near misses and being dispersed lessen your losses.
Talk about over confident and amateur hour.
Russian hubris is a running theme in this conflict. We're seeing it time and again.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:17
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I don't get it, they are helicopters, who in the right mind would stick them on an airfield and not disperse them to the surrounding fields.
If fuel and arming are issues, set up refuelling locations in fields and separate arming points, at least do not park them on a concrete apron in pretty lines where the blast damage would be increased.
Surrounding fields and earth might absorb some of any near misses and being dispersed lessen your losses.
Talk about over confident and amateur hour.
If you look at the infra-red satellite photos of the latest Ukranian artillery strike on this airfield, you will note they did not just target the apron area. The Ukranians also targetted several other sites of interest that are dispersed significantly beyond the airfield itself. From the pattern placement they were not random errant fires, but targetted. So there are (or were) also other things of interest that are not visible in the images you are looking at. Whether they are/were comms, troops, SAMs, dispersals, whatever is not something either the Ukranians or the Russians are discussing.

(Down in the Kerson area of southern Ukraine the weather is better than the north, and the mud appears to be much less of an issue. The rivers on the other hand are non-trivial barriers ....)

Note the IR is overlaid on old sat imagery in this link


Last edited by petit plateau; 16th Mar 2022 at 17:29.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:39
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RE: Russian naval flotilla off Odessa

How twitchy do you think they would get if they "detected" a/some unidentified subs in international waters*? , Do you think this would be a good tactic ?

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Old 16th Mar 2022, 17:49
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Talks of a 15 point peace plan

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...iftigniter-rhr

Russia and Ukraine have reportedly drawn up a 15-point peace deal that would bring a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops – in return for commitments from Kyiv to become a “neutral” country and accept limits on the size of its army.

The deal would allow Ukraine to keep a standing army, but prevent it from ever joining Nato or hosting foreign military bases, sources familiar with the negotiations told the Financial Times.

A similar 1955 pledge convinced the Soviet Union to end the decade-long occupation of Austria after the Second World War.

Austria declared itself permanently neutral that year, leading to the Soviet Union agreeing to an end to its occupation. It promised not to join any military alliance, such as Nato, and to never host foreign military bases on its soil.

The compromise has the potential to meet one of Vladimir Putin’s key demands: that Ukraine never joins Nato. However, other Russian demands will prove hugely problematic for Kyiv.

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were considering a plan involving a constitutional commitment to neutrality, the Kremlin said on a third day of heavy shelling of Ukrainian cities.

he Russian foreign minister, told RBC News on Wednesday: “The negotiations are not easy for obvious reasons. But nevertheless, there is some hope of reaching a compromise.

“Neutral status is now being seriously discussed seriously along, of course, with security guarantees. This is what is now being discussed at the talks. There are absolutely specific wordings and in my view, the sides are close to agreeing on them.”

He said that Moscow’s aim was to defend people in the separatist Kremlin-backed region of the Donbas from Kyiv, and the demilitarisation of Ukraine.

Putin has also demanded recognition for Russian rule in Crimea, which he annexed illegally in 2014, and for Kyiv to recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

The Russian leader told Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, that Kyiv was not showing a “serious commitment” to his demands.

Vladimir Putin could be ‘buying time to strengthen army’

There are also fears that Putin could be using the peace talks to buy time to reinforce his army, which has been bogged down in Ukraine and suffered heavy losses.

Ukraine rejected the Austrian comparison, but there were signs of rising optimism that a deal could be struck, despite the continuing bloodshed in the country and a counter-offensive launched in Kyiv.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a negotiator, said: “Ukraine is now in a direct state of war with Russia. Consequently, the model can only be ‘Ukrainian’ and only on legally verified security guarantees.”

Mr Podolyak told the Financial Times any deal would mean Russia surrendering territory it had gained since the invasion began on Feb 24
It reads like Ukraine is getting the short end of the deal when they have Russia by the proverbials in so many ways. And I doubt I would believe anything Russia says.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 18:10
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Another downed KA-52



And another downed Helicopter


Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Mar 2022 at 18:20.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 18:25
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That second one is an Mi-24 apparently shot down on 6th March.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:07
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
RE: Russian naval flotilla off Odessa

How twitchy do you think they would get if they "detected" a/some unidentified subs in international waters*? , Do you think this would be a good tactic ?
Getting into the realms of fantasy now Pike!
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:37
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Getting into the realms of fantasy now Pike!
Why ? This is, after all, a completely abnormal situation where multiple NATO countries are publicly supplying weapons that are destroying Russian forces the very same week and vociferously cheering on the opposing force. Russian forces are shown to be weak/:incompetent on land and air, so wouldn't it be a good time to tweak their tails on the briney and test their mettle ? I imagine that these waters don't have the depths/open spaces that subs like to operate, but just being present and maybe giving a ping now and then, would be good to rattle the Russian mariners a little; It might also help the Ukranians if the matelots had to pay increased attention to their sea-ward side as well as land-ward;

I imagine the Swedes might well have the best-adapted subs*, and it would be well-justified pay-back for all the "illegal" trespassing Russian subs have committed over the years. (* obviously if they wanted to play )
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:40
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How are these subs supposed to get into the Black Sea when Turkey can close the Bosporus?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:40
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
RE: Russian naval flotilla off Odessa

How twitchy do you think they would get if they "detected" a/some unidentified subs in international waters*? , Do you think this would be a good tactic ?
We're more likely to find out what happens when an anti-tank rocket hits a fully loaded landing craft.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:41
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They could sow a few sea mines ahead of the flotilla rather than attack them directly. Totally deniable -"nuffin to do wiv us guv! Must've been an old Nazi mine"
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:54
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We are providing anti ship missiles, it was announced in Feb.

Meanwhile Russians kill 10 people simply queuing for bloody bread

These scum want finding and hanging from the nearest lamppost

see
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...v-b988444.html
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 19:55
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Originally Posted by ExAscoteer2
How are these subs supposed to get into the Black Sea when Turkey can close the Bosporus?
Excellent point. My knowledge of seaways is weak. Perhaps the Turks would like to do it, to see if they could add some forthcoming sales success to their subs, to follow in the wake of the undoubted flood of orders for the Bayraktar UAVs
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