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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th May 2022, 06:24
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Interview with captured RF Su 35 pilot

Interesting listen.


Oryx has only one Su35 downed , and the date\location matches this https://postlmg.cc/nMQgTND7
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Old 10th May 2022, 06:42
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NutLoose,

I'm not sure those 25,650 (approx. to be confirmed) troop losses are all KIA. I guess this figure is derived from equipment losses (4 per tank, 10 per APC, etc) but I hope (for the humanity) that these crews are not all dead and most manage to flee/surrender...
Also, numerous conscripts poorly trained, not sure how this costed $518,000 to Mother Russia. Or is this the "total life cycle costing" of a human being loss? Just trying to figure out the methodology...
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Old 10th May 2022, 08:34
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Russia is actually generating record revenues from energy exports, 1.8 trillion rubles in April
I saw this and initially thought "Wow, this is a lot of cash", but then did the math and realised this is only c.$26billion* (£21billion). Not that much given they too are suffering from a spike in inflation, increased welfare payments etc - even before the costs of the war (I've read that its costing Russia of the order of $0.75 billion per day)

Also, money does not an army buy, at least over the short term, unless you're content to throw your people into the maw armed only with anicent Soviet era kit

* Using the official exchange rate. Given Russia is using their reserves to prop this up, it could well be twice this in real terms i.e. the actual Dollar/GBP amount could be half what I've calculated.
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Old 10th May 2022, 08:41
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Usertim - the damning statement is when the pilot says they are told to carry out the order first and then question it later if required - the 'I was only following orders' excuse sounds as hollow now as it did in WW2.
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Old 10th May 2022, 08:52
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
I agree with you, that a transition of Russia to a real democracy will be a very difficult one. As such, my earlier suggestion, the Russian Federation breaks up and later on rejoins according to something like the EU model (with I hope significantly fewer languages). Breaking up of the Federation would imply that a lot of the centralized dye-hard communist structures become redundant and control moves to a more local scale. Implying the propaganda and other controlling institutions also break down.

What the Russian people want: Stability, if needed to be enforced the hard way. Forgetting that "the hard way" becomes more and more brutal, the longer such a scheme runs. Breaking up the Federation would make things a significantly smaller scale and as such better manageable.

For now, Putin rules by propaganda, FSB enforcement, social control, zero press freedom and Stalin practices. Though the longer the Ukraine war takes, the more service men are missing or return home dead, fueling the unrest of the population. Difficult to predict what is going to happen, though Chaos is a certainty. Chaos anyway, when Putin dies, since nearly every major decision is tied to him personally and though there are formal institutions, these aren't recognized to be applicable (see the ignored formal transfer of power to the prime-minister position, when Putin gets his planned cancer operation, the power goes -rumored- to his FSB "friend").
Sorry but this is wishful thinking in the extreme.

The issue as I see it that Russia, in its current guise, is far too tempting a grift for a wannabe Putin successor to pass up: the opportunity to enrich yourself, your family and friends beyond measure, to literally have the natural resources of the world's largest country as your bank account, coupled the ultimate safeguard of the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, oh and a supremely pliable and gullible population to ride roughshod over (vodka + circuses, that's all it takes). Even the most liberal-minded pro-Western amongst them would be tempted.
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Old 10th May 2022, 09:19
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Wouldn't demography work against the Russians compared to other ethnic and regional groups? So a breakup seems likely sooner or later.
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Old 10th May 2022, 11:03
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
NutLoose,

I'm not sure those 25,650 (approx. to be confirmed) troop losses are all KIA. I guess this figure is derived from equipment losses (4 per tank, 10 per APC, etc) but I hope (for the humanity) that these crews are not all dead and most manage to flee/surrender...
Also, numerous conscripts poorly trained, not sure how this costed $518,000 to Mother Russia. Or is this the "total life cycle costing" of a human being loss? Just trying to figure out the methodology...
Yes it is GDP for one Russian soldier, they also pay out to the families,

see
https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433...illion-per-day

Shedding light into the true cost of the invasion on Russia’s war chest is one of the most debated topics. Injecting guidance into the debate, a new study by the Centre for Economic Recovery, consulting firm Civitta and EasyBusiness has delivered a rapid assessment of the costs of the war for the Russian economy, finding that – even according to the most conservative estimates – the country is bleeding money.

The direct losses from the war alone – including liquidated military equipment and casualties among personnel – have in the first 5 days cost Russia about $7 billion. Of this, the loss of human lives alone is forecast to account for $2.7 billion in lost GDP over the coming years.

Beyond this, the scale of the mobilisation – including its logistics, personnel, ammunition, fuel, rocket launches, and so on – will cost more money each day. As a result, according to the researchers, the daily cost of war for Russia is “likely to exceed $20 billion” as the invasion scales.
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...f268b4589.html

Those that die as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will receive 41,228 euros in compensation, while those who are wounded will get 24,795 euros.
pricing listing for each vehicle etc for most major countries.

https://nation-creation.fandom.com/w...y_Pricing_List



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Old 10th May 2022, 11:22
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Those that die as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will receive 41,228 euros in compensation, while those who are wounded will get 24,795 euros.
That report was from early March when things hadn't gone so badly wrong - wonder if Vlad has marked down that price of a conscripts life now.
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Old 10th May 2022, 11:36
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Reading many reports a lot of families are being told that their son/husband has “gone missing” and is suspected of having deserted and they are being denied compensation.

Whether that is official policy to hide losses or corrupt officials using it as a n excuse to pocket the compensation themselves is impossible to tell.
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Old 10th May 2022, 11:53
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A Russian cruise missile being taken down by a Martlet. Not seen that before even though it was posted on the 30th of April.

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Old 10th May 2022, 12:24
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Usertim - the damning statement is when the pilot says they are told to carry out the order first and then question it later if required - the 'I was only following orders' excuse sounds as hollow now as it did in WW2.
Russians, using Nazi-era excuses to excuse their actions, in a "special military operation" that was apparently about ridding Ukraine of Nazis....

The irony is delicious.
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Old 10th May 2022, 13:04
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Reference “missing” Russian soldiers and compensation….

'It's not a morgue, it's a dump,' Russian soldier says in intercepted phone call.

Ukraine's Security Service published a recording of an intercepted phone call from a soldier fighting for Russians to his wife.

The soldier is heard saying that Russians are writing their soldiers off as "missing" to hide the high number of the dead.

He said that there was a "dump" of dead soldiers' bodies near Donetsk with piles that are two meters high.
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Old 10th May 2022, 13:06
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Yet another confirmed T-90M kill. As the first obviously was no lucky shot the Russians really must be thinking hard what to do about it. And India thinking how to get rid of those.

As the latest evolution version of their 20th century kits aren't as good as advertised do the Russians dare to move the Armata in to the battlefield? I'd really love to know how it'll do in the battle, however a loss of one of those would really be a blow for the Russians.


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Old 10th May 2022, 13:19
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Yet another confirmed T-90M kill. As the first obviously was no lucky shot the Russians really must be thinking hard what to do about it. And India thinking how to get rid of those.

As the latest evolution version of their 20th century kits aren't as good as advertised do the Russians dare to move the Armata in to the battlefield? I'd really love to know how it'll do in the battle, however a loss of one of those would really be a blow for the Russians.


https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523979659544834057

At least they are more environmentally friendly, they retain their turrets thus making the post action clean up easier..
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Old 10th May 2022, 13:47
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Yet another confirmed T-90M kill. As the first obviously was no lucky shot the Russians really must be thinking hard what to do about it. And India thinking how to get rid of those.
This may have been footage from the first reported kill.

I'd really love to know how it'll do in the battle, however a loss of one of those would really be a blow for the Russians.
Badly I suspect, hence why they're not risking fielding them. They lost a couple in Syria apparently.

The China military leadership must also be scratching their heads, having not only based much of their kit on Soviet legacy stuff, but also much of their military doctrine. Back to the drawing boards lads!
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Old 10th May 2022, 14:06
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
This may have been footage from the first reported kill.
They do use the word "another" in the description.
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Old 10th May 2022, 14:26
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Sorry but this is wishful thinking in the extreme.

The issue as I see it that Russia, in its current guise, is far too tempting a grift for a wannabe Putin successor to pass up: the opportunity to enrich yourself, your family and friends beyond measure, to literally have the natural resources of the world's largest country as your bank account, coupled the ultimate safeguard of the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, oh and a supremely pliable and gullible population to ride roughshod over (vodka + circuses, that's all it takes). Even the most liberal-minded pro-Western amongst them would be tempted.
Without some "goal", realistic or not, you won't be able to strive to go to Mars......

Yep, Putin successors would be fighting to take-over from Putin. Though there are several, if not many. Which will make it quite a fight.

As such, my suggestion to break up the Russian Federation and suddenly the power base for all the would-be follow-up's would be gone.

And, to break up the Russian Federation, NATO needs to be in Moscow. Not to claim the country, though to initiate the political break-up of de Federation. With that, the Russian threat would be diminished, if not gone, etc.
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Old 10th May 2022, 14:40
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
Without some "goal", realistic or not, you won't be able to strive to go to Mars......

Yep, Putin successors would be fighting to take-over from Putin. Though there are several, if not many. Which will make it quite a fight.

As such, my suggestion to break up the Russian Federation and suddenly the power base for all the would-be follow-up's would be gone.

And, to break up the Russian Federation, NATO needs to be in Moscow. Not to claim the country, though to initiate the political break-up of de Federation. With that, the Russian threat would be diminished, if not gone, etc.

You should be on stage with this, its comedy gold.
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Old 10th May 2022, 14:41
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
And, to break up the Russian Federation, NATO needs to be in Moscow. Not to claim the country, though to initiate the political break-up of de Federation. With that, the Russian threat would be diminished, if not gone, etc.
That's the point that you keep getting wrong. The USSR, for example, broke up without NATO being in Moscow.
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Old 10th May 2022, 15:26
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As we saw with Saddam and Gaddafi, removing the head of the beast just creates a power vacuum and gets the different factions fighting with each other for control - that really would be a bad thing for Russia and the rest of Europe.
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