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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Apr 2022, 02:43
  #4401 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tdracer
I read an article quite a while ago - basically said that the next big war would be fought with what you had on hand - that the lead time associated with modern weapons was so long - and their lethality so great (i.e. losses would be so massive and rapid) that by the time you could ramp up massive production (WW II style), the war would be over.
This has been a truism that got its genesis in the necking down of the contractor/business/industrial base in the 90's, which accelerated about a decade ago. Long lead times have become longer lead times. (Not sure what you saw at Boeing in that regard on the civil side).
Your point on 'come as you are' takes us back to war becoming (as I noted in the Moskva thread as regards Russian views on naval warfare) 'the battle of the first salvo' at the high end.
At the low end there are a variety of examples of how it just keeps going and going.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 03:14
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
There are very few details - and those unconfirmed - out there about who is paying for what. Where do you have this information ?
The stalled negotiations over the Polski a/c was here:
And here



Last edited by Rockie_Rapier; 17th Apr 2022 at 03:38.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 03:22
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I suppose if you craft your strategy correctly, get your Intelligence Data sorted properly so you know more about the enemy than they know of themselves, get your logistical trains organized and stocked, then attack with surprise, use overwhelming force, and focus your effort in severing your enemy's command structure at the outset, and achieve air and/or sea supremacy, and provide your ground forces overwhelming air support.....you might get a short bitter fight. The danger is after winning.....be wary of staying too long and finding yourself fighting an insurgency that has popular support and ample access to weapons and other necessary tools for fighting.

The current Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have failed in most of those issues.

They are learning some lessons the hard way....but I am sure they are learning and the next round will be much different than the first.

Likewise....the Ukraine Military is learning from its experience....and to date seem far faster on their feet than the Russians.

Ukraine is fighting for its survival....Russia is there for conquest.

In the matter of "Will"....my money is solidly on the Ukraine Forces especially if NATO and other Countries do right by the Ukraine People and provide them what they need to win the War and expel the Russians.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 07:46
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That's a 'LIKE' for Sasless
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 10:56
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
The stalled negotiations over the Polski a/c was here:
And here
I don't see anything in there about the USA supplying modern aircraft f.o.c. which was the point i was making about your post.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 11:01
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Ooooo, Shootout between Russians,

A win/win?


Understandable since the FSB only arrested DPR Commissar Basurin yesterday.

IG
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 12:16
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On switchblades

Originally Posted by rattman
On the switchblades. its "systems" and each system is a 1 command node and either 6 or 10 drones/munitions
Switch Blades, concur it may well be systems, and it is also as likely to use the term "300" to not disclose the actual number of the devices going into Ukraine. I would think that we are not talking about 300 x "300" systems.... I suspect that smart peeps who get paid to do the maths have taken note of the relative effectiveness of the TB-2 and possibly more interesting homegrown weaponizing of DJI drones with dropped devices. The video of a T-72 launching the turret from a quadcopter drop of an improvised aerial expendable makes a compelling case for every man and his dog (and cats) having access to enough grenades/DJI's, Switchblade systems to take the fight to the INVADERS. The asymmetric capability of 1 person carrying a backpack full of air-droppable ordnance stacked against another sociopathic dictator and his minions is compelling. It is poetic that Russia suddenly finds itself short of weapon manufacturing capability, noting that Ukraine was a primary center for the supply of military technology and weapon production for Russia.

I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.

The real asymmetric value comes from having the rounds available to be dosed out as desired by the Russian's actions, with the surveillance being conducted by the DJI systems and similar. Yes, anti-drone capability does exist in some limited capacity with some forces around the world, but they are not evident in the field at present, so there is probably a bit of thinking going on in Russia on that score, after all, they have no simple access to the production of capable tech (that was done in the Ukraine, and most required western supplied IC and components...). If Russia spent more time listening to the concerns of the rest of the world, and less time lying to their own people, perhaps they would not be concerned with the historical 9-gateways of invasion that seem to preoccupy President Pukin's cognition. If he started listening to the concerns of his own people, the opposition (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny...Boris Nemtsov...) instead of murdering them, or those trying to report, (Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya...Igor Domnikov, Sergey Novikov, Iskandar Khatloni, Sergey Ivanov, Adam Tepsurgayev, Eduard Markevich, Natalya Skryl, Valery Ivanov, Aleksei Sidorov, Dmitry Shvets, Paul Klebnikov, Magomedzagid Varisov..) and sundry "threats to Pukin" (Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, Ashlan Maskhadov, Abdul-Halim Sadulayev, Arbi Barayev, Ibn Al-khattab, Abu Al-walid, Turpal-Ali Atgeriyev, Salman Raduyev, Ruslan Gelayev, Magomedzagir Akayev, Khura-Magomed Ramazanov, Umar Israilov, Alexander Litvinenko, The Sergei Skripal / Yulia Sergeevna Skripal Novichok attack... ) and..., Boris Berezovsky, Alexander Perepilichnyy, Gareth Williams, Georgi Markov, the attempt on German Gorbuntsov, Vitaly Churkin, Denis Voronenkov, dioxin attack against Viktor Yushchenko, the poisoning of Petr Verzilov and a whole bunch more. Speaking out against Pukin increases the risk of accidentally hanging yourself in a bathroom, or slipping on a couple of Makarov casings. Probably is an exclusion on most Russian life insurance policies.

Originally Posted by rattman
There was an agreement that Russian ships would not carry nuclear-tipped missiles in 1992. Also, note there was an agreement Russia wouldn't develop IRBM and they ignored that. If you go to AIS you will see that 2 Jackup barges are now located where the Moskva went down.
Is the 1992 agreement subsequent to START I? If it was START II, that was never ratified, and was not binding. START I of course, was a 15-year term with an option for 5-year extensions, and a proposal to make it an indefinite period, but that was also never ratified. That leaves START I which ceased to have effect on 5th December 2009. Any compliance with START I even when it was in force was under the National Technical Means, NTM, of verification, which the other side was not permitted to interfere with. So START I was as good as the paper that was missing at the toilets in UUEE terminal last time I visited and spent hours in the queue in the vomit green corridor with all the rest of the crews with the misfortune to be experiencing the pleasure of Russian efficiency.

I made a rough estimate of when Pukin would light the touchpaper on a tactical nuke, irrespective of it being upwind of significant Russian population centers, and I don't see any evidence that is off the options menu for this psycho as yet. I think I still have 3 weeks to run for that estimate, the probability is not zero, but thankfully it isn't 1 either. The West and NATO don't have many options to play in that event, except for every single possible permutation on a near-infinite spectrum, but they really boil down to 2; Give in to Russia, the new leaders of the world... Nah, that ain't gonna happen, or to send in immediately UN (really, there is still a UN even while the permanent members of the UN include a psycho) or NATO or allied concerned countries into Ukraine (and Finland, Sweden, as a tripwire force), increase presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland etc.... With a declaration of collective defence, what Ukraine needed Obama to do in 2014. before MI-17 etc. Of course, I would expect the next few weeks to prove me wrong, I sure hope so.

PS: My idea of a target asking to be taken out -

There's a bridge over the straights at Kerch that has a span that asks to be dropped, and the great thing is, it's on Ukrainian territory if you disregard the unlawful annexation of Crimea by Pukin. Gonna take a package of Hrim-2's, but eminently worthy of the effort. Add some captors outside of Novorossiysk... make a picnic of it. Pukin seems to be mighty sensitive for a bully when his nose hairs get yanked, "eyes well up 'n everythang".




Last edited by fdr; 17th Apr 2022 at 12:48.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 13:00
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Originally Posted by fdr
Switch Blades, concur it may well be systems, and it is also as likely to use the term "300" to not disclose the actual number of the devices going into Ukraine. I would think that we are not talking about 300 x "300" systems..

I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.
Hopefully they will use the Switchblades on long-range artillery ( if they are Switchblade 600 models ) rather than transport /armour which they can deal with using ATGM.

Last edited by Senior Pilot; 17th Apr 2022 at 20:39. Reason: Fix quote
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 13:10
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I don’t know if verified but using TU-22M over Mariupol seems like desperation if they are being used conventionally, it’s also been reported that Russia has had to cancel the Syrian troop rotation possibly due to the lack of replacements.


Also of note, a doctor reporting the causes of his current throughput, one being out of date French Humanitarian aid!

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Old 17th Apr 2022, 13:59
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Originally Posted by Cat Techie
Isn't there a posthumous medal for giving life in active duty? Do the Russians still publish that now? If they do, that maybe a clue. I doubt they do. Most died a horrible death, occuring due the actions by one man and his henchmen.
There is, I posted a link to reporting on them ages ago
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 14:29
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Separated at birth?


(ex) Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Ossipov






British comedian Alexi Sayle



Last edited by Sue VÍtements; 17th Apr 2022 at 14:44.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 15:34
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Separated at birth?


(ex) Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Ossipov






British comedian Alexi Sayle


You owe me a new computer screen now! Itís wearing my gobfull of coffee . . .
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 16:07
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Though I feel the Belarusian’s are a bit more savvy and realise they are being sold an election pup, probably hence the reluctance of the Country to get involved in active participation as I feel there would be a mass revolt and Lukashenko’s position would be tenuous.
It shows in the fact that Belarusians are fighting for Ukraine and the railway workers were sabotaging the rail system to prevent Russian reinforcements.

A formal declaration of war means mobilisation and conscription I think
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 16:07
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Originally Posted by fitliker
What does the Russian formal declaration of War against Ukraine change ?
The obligation of Russia to prosecute war crimes by their own troops. There is no longer the flimsy excuse that this is not a war. Putin has laid the way open for his successor to hang him.


BTW by pointing out other's faults does not excuse your own, doing so shows a poor grip of logic and a good one of rhetoric.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 16:15
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Ukraine airforce has launched a crowdfunding for buy me a fighter jet, the film shows some of the damaged aircraft on the ground.

https://buymeafighterjet.com/

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23buymeafighterjet






https://youtu.be/foPUxMvXbhk

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Apr 2022 at 16:40.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 16:51
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Apologies if this has been posted already,

From The Drive, 15th April 2022

Romania Should Give The MiG-21 Lancers It Just Grounded To Ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine

JAS
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 17:19
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Originally Posted by Just a spotter
Apologies if this has been posted already,

From The Drive, 15th April 2022


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine

JAS
Same problem as getting a Western Aircraft or NATO Mig 29's. Takes months to become more than a target for Russian (or their own) AA systems. They need aircraft that are the exactly the same as what they fly now and most friendly nations don't have anything like that.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 17:42
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Originally Posted by fitliker
.
What does the Russian formal declaration of War against Ukraine change ?
It means that Putin may start calling in the reserves due to war time. However that sword might fall on himself as the motivation of an average russian may be quite low to end up in the battle fields of Ukraine. How would they explain to an average russian that the peace keeping mission is so badly handled that they need to declare war and start risking their own lives. Especially since the official mantra has been that everything goes according to plans and Ukraine is already falling to pieces.

It also means that there is no reason left for Ukrainians not to attack targets on Russian soil. What I mean by that is that the Russian people need to start considering the possibility of hell and fire falling upon them in near vicinity of railway junctions, fuel storages etc.

but does Putin give a s*it what the average Ivan is thinking? Not necessarily. We may have passed the point in which he needs to win regardless of the costs. And traditionally no cost is too high for a Russian leader especially if the cost is mere soldiers lives. And the propaganda to prepare domestic audience for full scale war has already begun in the Russian TV. They are already saying that the sinking of Moskva was done with US weapons so it already is WW3.

Declaration of war by Russians will mean even more lies, even less discussion, atrocities spreading like plague and on my opinion hundreds of thousands of casualties, both military and civilian. And I am not exaggerating, the estimate is already at 50k ish and the declaration of war will only make things worse.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 18:51
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Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD
Same problem as getting a Western Aircraft or NATO Mig 29's. Takes months to become more than a target for Russian (or their own) AA systems. They need aircraft that are the exactly the same as what they fly now and most friendly nations don't have anything like that.
Maybe so, but this is half the problem, people keep saying it will take months to learn how to operate xyz equipment, but if people had taken it seriously and started to train them when the war did, then they would now be coming on stream, they really need to be teaching them now, because we have no idea how long this war will last. Putting it off by repeating the, “it will take xyz time” is simply kicking the can down the road. At some point they will need to train them if they are to survive.

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Apr 2022 at 19:02.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 18:54
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I
It also means that there is no reason left for Ukrainians not to attack targets on Russian soil. What I mean by that is that the Russian people need to start considering the possibility of hell and fire falling upon them in near vicinity of railway junctions, fuel storages etc.

but does Putin give a s*it what the average Ivan is thinking? Not necessarily. We may have passed the point in which he needs to win regardless of the costs..
in general I'm sure you are right, but there comes a point ( unsure where ) when the resistance of the people becomes unstoppable.
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