Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I read an article quite a while ago - basically said that the next big war would be fought with what you had on hand - that the lead time associated with modern weapons was so long - and their lethality so great (i.e. losses would be so massive and rapid) that by the time you could ramp up massive production (WW II style), the war would be over.
Your point on 'come as you are' takes us back to war becoming (as I noted in the Moskva thread as regards Russian views on naval warfare) 'the battle of the first salvo' at the high end.
At the low end there are a variety of examples of how it just keeps going and going.
Last edited by Rockie_Rapier; 17th Apr 2022 at 02:38.
I suppose if you craft your strategy correctly, get your Intelligence Data sorted properly so you know more about the enemy than they know of themselves, get your logistical trains organized and stocked, then attack with surprise, use overwhelming force, and focus your effort in severing your enemy's command structure at the outset, and achieve air and/or sea supremacy, and provide your ground forces overwhelming air support.....you might get a short bitter fight. The danger is after winning.....be wary of staying too long and finding yourself fighting an insurgency that has popular support and ample access to weapons and other necessary tools for fighting.
The current Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have failed in most of those issues.
They are learning some lessons the hard way....but I am sure they are learning and the next round will be much different than the first.
Likewise....the Ukraine Military is learning from its experience....and to date seem far faster on their feet than the Russians.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival....Russia is there for conquest.
In the matter of "Will"....my money is solidly on the Ukraine Forces especially if NATO and other Countries do right by the Ukraine People and provide them what they need to win the War and expel the Russians.
The current Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have failed in most of those issues.
They are learning some lessons the hard way....but I am sure they are learning and the next round will be much different than the first.
Likewise....the Ukraine Military is learning from its experience....and to date seem far faster on their feet than the Russians.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival....Russia is there for conquest.
In the matter of "Will"....my money is solidly on the Ukraine Forces especially if NATO and other Countries do right by the Ukraine People and provide them what they need to win the War and expel the Russians.
That's a 'LIKE' for Sasless
The stalled negotiations over the Polski a/c was here:
And here
And here
On switchblades
I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.
The real asymmetric value comes from having the rounds available to be dosed out as desired by the Russian's actions, with the surveillance being conducted by the DJI systems and similar. Yes, anti-drone capability does exist in some limited capacity with some forces around the world, but they are not evident in the field at present, so there is probably a bit of thinking going on in Russia on that score, after all, they have no simple access to the production of capable tech (that was done in the Ukraine, and most required western supplied IC and components...). If Russia spent more time listening to the concerns of the rest of the world, and less time lying to their own people, perhaps they would not be concerned with the historical 9-gateways of invasion that seem to preoccupy President Pukin's cognition. If he started listening to the concerns of his own people, the opposition (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny...Boris Nemtsov...) instead of murdering them, or those trying to report, (Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya...Igor Domnikov, Sergey Novikov, Iskandar Khatloni, Sergey Ivanov, Adam Tepsurgayev, Eduard Markevich, Natalya Skryl, Valery Ivanov, Aleksei Sidorov, Dmitry Shvets, Paul Klebnikov, Magomedzagid Varisov..) and sundry "threats to Pukin" (Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, Ashlan Maskhadov, Abdul-Halim Sadulayev, Arbi Barayev, Ibn Al-khattab, Abu Al-walid, Turpal-Ali Atgeriyev, Salman Raduyev, Ruslan Gelayev, Magomedzagir Akayev, Khura-Magomed Ramazanov, Umar Israilov, Alexander Litvinenko, The Sergei Skripal / Yulia Sergeevna Skripal Novichok attack... ) and..., Boris Berezovsky, Alexander Perepilichnyy, Gareth Williams, Georgi Markov, the attempt on German Gorbuntsov, Vitaly Churkin, Denis Voronenkov, dioxin attack against Viktor Yushchenko, the poisoning of Petr Verzilov and a whole bunch more. Speaking out against Pukin increases the risk of accidentally hanging yourself in a bathroom, or slipping on a couple of Makarov casings. Probably is an exclusion on most Russian life insurance policies.
There was an agreement that Russian ships would not carry nuclear-tipped missiles in 1992. Also, note there was an agreement Russia wouldn't develop IRBM and they ignored that. If you go to AIS you will see that 2 Jackup barges are now located where the Moskva went down.
I made a rough estimate of when Pukin would light the touchpaper on a tactical nuke, irrespective of it being upwind of significant Russian population centers, and I don't see any evidence that is off the options menu for this psycho as yet. I think I still have 3 weeks to run for that estimate, the probability is not zero, but thankfully it isn't 1 either. The West and NATO don't have many options to play in that event, except for every single possible permutation on a near-infinite spectrum, but they really boil down to 2; Give in to Russia, the new leaders of the world... Nah, that ain't gonna happen, or to send in immediately UN (really, there is still a UN even while the permanent members of the UN include a psycho) or NATO or allied concerned countries into Ukraine (and Finland, Sweden, as a tripwire force), increase presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland etc.... With a declaration of collective defence, what Ukraine needed Obama to do in 2014. before MI-17 etc. Of course, I would expect the next few weeks to prove me wrong, I sure hope so.
PS: My idea of a target asking to be taken out -
There's a bridge over the straights at Kerch that has a span that asks to be dropped, and the great thing is, it's on Ukrainian territory if you disregard the unlawful annexation of Crimea by Pukin. Gonna take a package of Hrim-2's, but eminently worthy of the effort. Add some captors outside of Novorossiysk... make a picnic of it. Pukin seems to be mighty sensitive for a bully when his nose hairs get yanked, "eyes well up 'n everythang".
Last edited by fdr; 17th Apr 2022 at 11:48.
Switch Blades, concur it may well be systems, and it is also as likely to use the term "300" to not disclose the actual number of the devices going into Ukraine. I would think that we are not talking about 300 x "300" systems..
I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.
I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.
Last edited by Senior Pilot; 17th Apr 2022 at 19:39. Reason: Fix quote
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I don’t know if verified but using TU-22M over Mariupol seems like desperation if they are being used conventionally, it’s also been reported that Russia has had to cancel the Syrian troop rotation possibly due to the lack of replacements.
Also of note, a doctor reporting the causes of his current throughput, one being out of date French Humanitarian aid!
Also of note, a doctor reporting the causes of his current throughput, one being out of date French Humanitarian aid!
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There is, I posted a link to reporting on them ages ago
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Separated at birth?
(ex) Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Ossipov
British comedian Alexi Sayle
(ex) Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Ossipov
British comedian Alexi Sayle
Last edited by Sue Vêtements; 17th Apr 2022 at 13:44.
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Though I feel the Belarusian’s are a bit more savvy and realise they are being sold an election pup, probably hence the reluctance of the Country to get involved in active participation as I feel there would be a mass revolt and Lukashenko’s position would be tenuous.
It shows in the fact that Belarusians are fighting for Ukraine and the railway workers were sabotaging the rail system to prevent Russian reinforcements.
A formal declaration of war means mobilisation and conscription I think
It shows in the fact that Belarusians are fighting for Ukraine and the railway workers were sabotaging the rail system to prevent Russian reinforcements.
A formal declaration of war means mobilisation and conscription I think
BTW by pointing out other's faults does not excuse your own, doing so shows a poor grip of logic and a good one of rhetoric.
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Ukraine airforce has launched a crowdfunding for buy me a fighter jet, the film shows some of the damaged aircraft on the ground.
https://buymeafighterjet.com/
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23buymeafighterjet
https://youtu.be/foPUxMvXbhk
https://buymeafighterjet.com/
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23buymeafighterjet
https://youtu.be/foPUxMvXbhk
Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Apr 2022 at 15:40.
Apologies if this has been posted already,
From The Drive, 15th April 2022
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
JAS
From The Drive, 15th April 2022
Romania Should Give The MiG-21 Lancers It Just Grounded To Ukraine
JAS
Apologies if this has been posted already,
From The Drive, 15th April 2022
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
JAS
From The Drive, 15th April 2022
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
JAS
It also means that there is no reason left for Ukrainians not to attack targets on Russian soil. What I mean by that is that the Russian people need to start considering the possibility of hell and fire falling upon them in near vicinity of railway junctions, fuel storages etc.
but does Putin give a s*it what the average Ivan is thinking? Not necessarily. We may have passed the point in which he needs to win regardless of the costs. And traditionally no cost is too high for a Russian leader especially if the cost is mere soldiers lives. And the propaganda to prepare domestic audience for full scale war has already begun in the Russian TV. They are already saying that the sinking of Moskva was done with US weapons so it already is WW3.
Declaration of war by Russians will mean even more lies, even less discussion, atrocities spreading like plague and on my opinion hundreds of thousands of casualties, both military and civilian. And I am not exaggerating, the estimate is already at 50k ish and the declaration of war will only make things worse.
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Maybe so, but this is half the problem, people keep saying it will take months to learn how to operate xyz equipment, but if people had taken it seriously and started to train them when the war did, then they would now be coming on stream, they really need to be teaching them now, because we have no idea how long this war will last. Putting it off by repeating the, “it will take xyz time” is simply kicking the can down the road. At some point they will need to train them if they are to survive.
Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Apr 2022 at 18:02.
I
It also means that there is no reason left for Ukrainians not to attack targets on Russian soil. What I mean by that is that the Russian people need to start considering the possibility of hell and fire falling upon them in near vicinity of railway junctions, fuel storages etc.
but does Putin give a s*it what the average Ivan is thinking? Not necessarily. We may have passed the point in which he needs to win regardless of the costs..
It also means that there is no reason left for Ukrainians not to attack targets on Russian soil. What I mean by that is that the Russian people need to start considering the possibility of hell and fire falling upon them in near vicinity of railway junctions, fuel storages etc.
but does Putin give a s*it what the average Ivan is thinking? Not necessarily. We may have passed the point in which he needs to win regardless of the costs..