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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 8th Feb 2023, 16:32
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Re: training.

It's BS that it takes 5 years to train a front line pilot. Perhaps reasonable in peacetime with the H&S nazi's ruling supreme. Complete bollocks when there is a war on. My uncle was a pilot in Fighter Command in WWII. Went from being recruited to operational flying in 8 months. He had about 300 hours total when he flew his first combat mission (in a Hurricane). He was lucky. Some had less training than he had.

Ukraine has more pilots than aircraft. Converting their pilots from SU-27s to something like Typhoon might take 3 months if we are committed to do it. Might be quicker to train them on the spare Tornado's (assuming they can be made reasonably airworthy) and give them those in the interim. The systems in the Tornado are closer to those in the SU-27.

The normal peacetime airworthiness crap goes out the window when there is a war on. If the thing will fly and fight, use it. Any weapon is better than no weapon. Ukraine aren't going to sue for giving them older aircraft when Russia is trying to bomb them out of existence.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:07
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It wouldn’t even need that, a suitcase nuke could be brought in under diplomatic mail.
There are ways and means of detecting, preventing and defeating such a threat. They have long been in use against a similar threat from ISIS or similar.
And, if the original poster who first put up this fantasy does indeed work at a senior level in defence he or she would be well aware of these facts.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:10
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Bakhmut Area Frontline Situation 8/02/2023:
Russian forces are leading more than 12 assault directions around Bakhmut.
They have made advances on the NE/N/E/SE/S sides of the city where battles currently rage in residential areas.



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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:11
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
While we are having fun with hypotheticals, the traditional word for oxymoron/paradox/conflict/conundrum/contraditction/antilogy in the east is 矛盾, (maodun in Chinese, mujun in Japanese), the pictograms for spear and shield. If Putin wields a spear, and Ukraine holds a shield, which will prevail?

Putin is approaching with weapons. Is Putin a truly irresistible force? Can Uraine truly be an immovable object?

The answer will lie in the ability of one to overpower the other, or the inability of one to match the other. Putin must be thinking of his own blackbelt.
An interesting martial arts analogy. Judo develops the skill of turning one's opponent's strength against them. Guile vs brute force, if you will. Clearly, the Russian way is to favour brute force.

I don't think the free world can afford to allow Ukraine to be defeated. Such an outcome would not be the end of the matter; rather, the start of a grim global future.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:29
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Originally Posted by John Marsh
An interesting martial arts analogy. Judo develops the skill of turning one's opponent's strength against them. Guile vs brute force, if you will. Clearly, the Russian way is to favour brute force.

I don't think the free world can afford to allow Ukraine to be defeated. Such an outcome would not be the end of the matter; rather, the start of a grim global future.
Not that Russia would enjoy the future ............ surely a global pariah, decreased market for its oil and gas, decreased export market for arms, unwilling to find business partners because of lack of trust, weakened militarily, weakened morally [not sure if that is possible] and surrounded [they infer] by potential enemies busy augmenting their own forces.
Looks like a Pyrrhic victory to me, should it happen.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:30
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Ukraine shopping list include F-16s and F-35s from the U.S., Eurofighters, Tornados, French Rafales, and Swedish Gripen jets.

This was at the beginning of the year.


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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:31
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
There are ways and means of detecting, preventing and defeating such a threat. They have long been in use against a similar threat from ISIS or similar.
And, if the original poster who first put up this fantasy does indeed work at a senior level in defence he or she would be well aware of these facts.
We infer USA Defense from other postings
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 17:55
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Originally Posted by mikeoneflying
Ukraine shopping list include F-16s and F-35s from the U.S., Eurofighters, Tornados, French Rafales, and Swedish Gripen jets.

This was at the beginning of the year.
I'm not an expert. Ukraine needs a ground attack capability. They are facing a largely Cold War technology era enemy. The Tornado is old, but is still a capable ground attack platform. Couple it with something able to do high altitude target designation and it would be as useful as the same combination in the Gulf. They need something to tackle the Russian S300 threat as well. Not sure how best to do that. Best thing would be to give Ukraine the kit and let them choose how to use it. So far they have proved they are very competent at doing this.

Whatever, we need to pull our finger out and drag every bit of surplus kit out of storage and get it serviceable ASAP. call in volunteers to do this if needed. There are a lot of us around that may be old but can still fix kit and get it serviceable. All the government has to do is ask and put the procedures in place to let us do what we know how to do.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 18:28
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
I'm not an expert. Ukraine needs a ground attack capability. They are facing a largely Cold War technology era enemy. The Tornado is old, but is still a capable ground attack platform. Couple it with something able to do high altitude target designation and it would be as useful as the same combination in the Gulf. They need something to tackle the Russian S300 threat as well. Not sure how best to do that. Best thing would be to give Ukraine the kit and let them choose how to use it. So far they have proved they are very competent at doing this.

Whatever, we need to pull our finger out and drag every bit of surplus kit out of storage and get it serviceable ASAP. call in volunteers to do this if needed. There are a lot of us around that may be old but can still fix kit and get it serviceable. All the government has to do is ask and put the procedures in place to let us do what we know how to do.

I don’t think we have any “war reserve” fast jets these days. Nearest thing would be the Jaguar training airframes at Cosford.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 18:29
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Whatever, we need to pull our finger out and drag every bit of surplus kit out of storage and get it serviceable ASAP. call in volunteers to do this if needed. There are a lot of us around that may be old but can still fix kit and get it serviceable. All the government has to do is ask and put the procedures in place to let us do what we know how to do.
Any chance you could do that without spending any money? Asking for a (Rt Hon) friend....
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 18:46
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Originally Posted by dctyke
I don’t think we have any “war reserve” fast jets these days. Nearest thing would be the Jaguar training airframes at Cosford.
Errr we swopped wings with the Omani’s to keep theirs flying as they were life ex, however there are quite a few Tornado. But you would probably be stuffed for spares and generating them

scroll down for some pictures of them

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Old 8th Feb 2023, 19:31
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Again if correct high Russian loses.


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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:01
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All this equipment is very nice. A few tanks here, a few planes there. Which country is going to bite the bullet and commit to producing and supplying a stream of equipment?
What Ukraine needs is a committed supply of X tanks, X planes, X guns, X drones, X munitions, X trained personnel etc per day.
Dribs and drabs are just extending the conflict.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:04
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Dribs and drabs are just extending the conflict.
Spade police: Defending is not extending, by any means, shape or form.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:19
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Errr we swopped wings with the Omani’s to keep theirs flying as they were life ex, however there are quite a few Tornado. But you would probably be stuffed for spares and generating them
What's life-ex really matter in war? So what if an airframe has theoretically exceeded it's fatigue life. If it can fly for a few tens of hours and help to knock out key Russian assets then that's better than nothing. We all know that life-ex isn't really an accurate assessment of true end of life. We've all seen life-ex airframes get sold and go on to fly in civil roles for years.

We rightly err on the side of caution in peacetime. No one wants deaths from airframe risks when not at war. All that shifts when the risk of people dying from not using iffy kit massively exceeds the risk from using it.

We've been at peace for so long we are inherently cautious. Would we be so cautious if Russian forces were dug in along the South Coast of England?
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:22
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Originally Posted by uxb99
All this equipment is very nice. A few tanks here, a few planes there. Which country is going to bite the bullet and commit to producing and supplying a stream of equipment?
What Ukraine needs is a committed supply of X tanks, X planes, X guns, X drones, X munitions, X trained personnel etc per day.
Dribs and drabs are just extending the conflict.
It’s the producing that is the problem, ramping up production takes time, for one extra tooling and skilled labour may be needed. You also have to factor in the needs of your own country if God forbids,Ukraine falls.
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:34
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Ukraine

Oh boy! Ukraine. Give me a Lightning or a Jaguar and I’ll be there! Oops forgot I’m 75 this year! Still there in spirit but capability a bit rundown 👍

Incomers welcome!

Just a light hearted comment from an old Cold War veteran!
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:35
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So, does the UK still have current QFIs on all of these types?
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:42
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
What's life-ex really matter in war? So what if an airframe has theoretically exceeded it's fatigue life. If it can fly for a few tens of hours and help to knock out key Russian assets then that's better than nothing. We all know that life-ex isn't really an accurate assessment of true end of life. We've all seen life-ex airframes get sold and go on to fly in civil roles for years.

We rightly err on the side of caution in peacetime. No one wants deaths from airframe risks when not at war. All that shifts when the risk of people dying from not using iffy kit massively exceeds the risk from using it.

We've been at peace for so long we are inherently cautious. Would we be so cautious if Russian forces were dug in along the South Coast of England?
I've been round the Jag fleet at Cosford and believe me when I say they would need work, the leading edge boots were hanging of a fair few, the cat igniters were missing, various bits were missing, and the majority haven’t run in years, some that were used to run I think no longer do.
Life ex wings and then heaving them around the skies with 4 thousand pounders, a phimat if they still have any and a compatible ECM pod hanging off them.
You also have a lack of laser designators as I believe the RAF returned them to ferranti who scrapped most, though the odd one appears on EBay. And then trying the get the NavWass working again after all these years.
We do not seem to hold war reserves anymore to the detriment of a case like this, such is the rush to “extract the best return to the taxpayer”

Perhaps give them Hawk T1’s to free up their L39 training fleet, at least they can be used as light attack aircraft
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 20:48
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Originally Posted by Stevie B
So, does the UK still have current QFIs on all of these types?
Does that matter? Did we have enough QFIs to train and sign off every front line pilot in WWII? From what I've heard to we didn't. Pilot's were sent to the front line with minimal training. Especially in the first year or so of the war. There are a host of people that are retired, not current, but that have mountains of experience. I have 22 years experience of fixing kit. Some of that kit is still around in older airframes. There are hundreds like me. Drag us in to help. I'm sure Ukraine would welcome any help at all, even from old-timers that are theoretically life-ex.

We're far too obsessed with the peacetime ethos of safety above all else. All that goes for a ball of chalk when someone's trying hard to kill you.
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