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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 16th Apr 2022, 06:47
  #4361 (permalink)  

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Times is apparently reporting the SAS are in Ukraine training Ukrainians.
A bit irresponsible of the Times. In Putin's mind I can see "SAS = UK = NATO"
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 07:17
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An interesting point of view as to why the war started and an update from an ex Swiss and nato intelligence officer.

https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 07:17
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Originally Posted by Herod
A bit irresponsible of the Times. In Putin's mind I can see "SAS = UK = NATO"

Totally agree
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 08:06
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Thanks Nutty:

An interesting perspective on the background of the current Ukraine situation and an insight to the Russian MO in Ukraine.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 08:54
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Originally Posted by Herod
A bit irresponsible of the Times. In Putin's mind I can see "SAS = UK = NATO"
What the Times actually says is that they were in Ukraine but pulled out 2 days prior to invasion. Then contradicts itself...

Last edited by Timmy Tomkins; 16th Apr 2022 at 09:05.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 08:56
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
An interesting point of view as to why the war started and an update from an ex Swiss and nato intelligence officer.

https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
Jacqes Baud has a dubious reputation for non impartiality especially concerning the actions of Russia.
Swiss and NATO?
​​​​​​​
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 09:03
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
An excellent read re arming Ukraine

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/15...tin-offensive/

I often thought a couple hundred quad bikes equipped with NLAW or Javelin’s operating in teams free to hunt out targets would be better, after all they cope with mud well, are light, cheap, easy to learn, easy to maintain, are quick and can shoot and scoot..

​​​​​….
A good articl thanks Nutty. A rather pertinent quote from it“We have exaggerated the risk, and the Russians know this,” he said. “We have the most powerful alliance in the history of the world scared to provide 25-year-old aircraft to a country that’s fighting for its life.”

“If we are the arsenal of democracy, then let’s be the arsenal of democracy and open the doors and push everything out that [Ukrainians] possibly need,”
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 09:06
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Originally Posted by beardy
Jacqes Baud has a dubious reputation for non impartiality especially concerning the actions of Russia.
Swiss and NATO?
I did think it sounded like “propaganda” but felt I should put the other sides point of view so to speak.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 09:09
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
An interesting point of view as to why the war started and an update from an ex Swiss and nato intelligence officer.

https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
A long article, and a tough read from beginning to its very distant end. It sets out the Russian position and addresses troubling background issues in much better clarity than I had previously half understood, although it seems to verge over into being fundamentally supportive of Putin throughout. Can't escape that sneaky feeling.

The other thing it does not really address is the concomitant massive land grabs, adding to Crimea and taking the corridor through Mariupol, joining the new republics to Crimea. If what he says about the pincer movement and crushing of the Ukrainian armed forces is totally correct, there may be trouble ahead.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 09:13
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Originally Posted by Herod
A bit irresponsible of the Times. In Putin's mind I can see "SAS = UK = NATO"
To be fair to the Times, who told them? The Ukrainians did and not in confidence.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 09:56
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I don't think it came out of the Ukranian MoD, but picked up from talking to front line troops. Agree, irresponsible, whether true or not.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 10:21
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“We have exaggerated the risk, and the Russians know this,” he said. “We have the most powerful alliance in the history of the world scared to provide 25-year-old aircraft to a country that’s fighting for its life
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?

If Ukraine got them wouldn't they be very vulnerable assets on the ground in Ukrainian territory?
Another point is that Poland bought them from Germany for 1 Euro each, (ex DDR aircraft) and while I've heard that the Poles keep them in pretty good shape, giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.

Of course, a month ago Putin was saying that even imposing sanctions could be considered a covert declaration of war and threatening dire consequences. The West has called his bluff on that one and on other points.

But now perhaps they could operate out of Poland (with Ukrainian crews)? A question for the experts, if that risk were taken by NATO, how useful would those mig29s be?
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 11:16
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The Jaques Baud article does read like the Kremlin viewpoint rather than an unbiased overview. Take two sections, first the one on incorporating foreign volunteers. Western journalists have reported that the inexperienced or misguided are weeded out and returned to whence they came, and the useful incorporated into the Ukrainian forces structure, a very different picture to that presented.

Second, an unnamed 'US source' is used to claim that the Russians are not deliberately targeting civilians- patently not the case.

The Ukrainians may be winning the propaganda war, but that does not mean that much of what is reported by the West is false.

A different assessment might conclude that any previously USSR state or Warsaw Pact state, now European oriented is a threat to Russia, so must be occupied. So, once Ukraine is occupied, Poland is now the border, hence the threat and must be occupied. East Germany....(etc, etc.)
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 11:25
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Originally Posted by Fitter2
The Jaques Baud article does read like the Kremlin viewpoint rather than an unbiased overview.
I can't find the right words to describe it, but the whole writing style is very like that of RT.com; not only the bias, but also the flowery language and the general structure.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 11:44
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?

If Ukraine got them wouldn't they be very vulnerable assets on the ground in Ukrainian territory?
Another point is that Poland bought them from Germany for 1 Euro each, (ex DDR aircraft) and while I've heard that the Poles keep them in pretty good shape, giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.

Of course, a month ago Putin was saying that even imposing sanctions could be considered a covert declaration of war and threatening dire consequences. The West has called his bluff on that one and on other points.

But now perhaps they could operate out of Poland (with Ukrainian crews)? A question for the experts, if that risk were taken by NATO, how useful would those mig29s be?
Meanwhile I seem to recall the Slovakians are getting on with providing/selling ac without so much of a fanfare.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 12:20
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?

giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.
Poland already operates 48 F16 C/D, so probably won't have much difficulty assimilating a couple of dozen more to replace the MiG29s, while they wait for the F-35s they have already ordered.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 13:17
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Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 13:27
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?
giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.
?
There are very few details - and those unconfirmed - out there about who is paying for what. Where do you have this information ?
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 14:42
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Has this not aged weirdly?





But then, neither Shoigu was a soldier.

Last edited by FlightDetent; 16th Apr 2022 at 15:06.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 15:00
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv
Russia claiming that the strikes took out the factories that built the missiles that didn't hit their cruiser.
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