Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Our fear of WWIII is legitimate and yet may inadvertently lead to such a conflict when there is no other choice. Hitler should been stopped at Czechoslovakia, and wasn’t. Hence Poland and all the rest.
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We can argue back and forth about Munich, but I still think that it's entirely possible that Chamberlain knew exactly what he was doing and was prepared to sacrifice his place in history to buy us (just enough) time to build up a viable defence against German aggression.
In fact The History Channel says this: "While the Munich Pact would become synonymous with “appeasement,” some historians believe that since the German and Italian air forces were twice as strong as the combined British and French airpower in September 1938, Chamberlain’s agreement gave the British military valuable time to bolster its defenses to ultimately defeat Hitler."
Not that this necessarily has any bearing on today's situation
In fact The History Channel says this: "While the Munich Pact would become synonymous with “appeasement,” some historians believe that since the German and Italian air forces were twice as strong as the combined British and French airpower in September 1938, Chamberlain’s agreement gave the British military valuable time to bolster its defenses to ultimately defeat Hitler."
Not that this necessarily has any bearing on today's situation
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Apparently two more senior Russians are no more
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...-AAUBR9w?pfr=1
The deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, Maj Gen Andrei Sukhovetsky, whose death from a probable sniper bullet was revealed on Thursday, is the highest-ranking member of the invasion force to lose his life after nine days of fighting.
Now Western officials have confirmed that a divisional commander and a regimental commander have also been killed, in what was described as a “surprising” development resulting from a breakdown in command and control systems.
It is believed that the senior officers may have moved from positions in the rear to unusually exposed frontline locations in an bid to impose their personal authority on a flagging advance, which has been beset with logistical problems and fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops.
Now Western officials have confirmed that a divisional commander and a regimental commander have also been killed, in what was described as a “surprising” development resulting from a breakdown in command and control systems.
It is believed that the senior officers may have moved from positions in the rear to unusually exposed frontline locations in an bid to impose their personal authority on a flagging advance, which has been beset with logistical problems and fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops.
The BUFFs are between Prague and Leipzig now, I presume they were sending a message to Vlad.
LL - someone may be monitoring you. - they temporarily vanished from ADS-B around the time you posted.
I have been watching the Romanian Border Guard Schiebel Camcopter S-100 which has been very active off the coast for the last couple of days, not so much obvious ISTAR activity today though a Global Hawk has been active all day, didn't see an E-3 until late/mid afternoon, I assume some of the missions are more covert than others and have stronger EMSEC. Various models of RC-135 including both RAF and USAF RJs, E-3s and a JSTARS yesterday.
The E-3 crew who flew a BBC team had clearly been well briefed on what not to say.
LL - someone may be monitoring you. - they temporarily vanished from ADS-B around the time you posted.
I have been watching the Romanian Border Guard Schiebel Camcopter S-100 which has been very active off the coast for the last couple of days, not so much obvious ISTAR activity today though a Global Hawk has been active all day, didn't see an E-3 until late/mid afternoon, I assume some of the missions are more covert than others and have stronger EMSEC. Various models of RC-135 including both RAF and USAF RJs, E-3s and a JSTARS yesterday.
The E-3 crew who flew a BBC team had clearly been well briefed on what not to say.
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I'm not sure how a sniper would be able to differentiate a high ranking Russian officer - oh wait . . .
Never mind the medals: over 25, well fed, uniform that fits, waving arms and shouting.
I do however have sympathy for their families as for those of all the victims of one man's paranaoia and megalomania.
I do however have sympathy for their families as for those of all the victims of one man's paranaoia and megalomania.
Last edited by SLXOwft; 4th Mar 2022 at 16:43. Reason: statement of sympathy
Fragging happened in Vietnam to over eager officers when draftees just wanted to stay out of trouble. We may be seeing something similar in the Ukraine.
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That’s got to have a real demoralising effect, they come forward to get things moving and show their faces, then they’re gone, leaving their troops even more demoralised.
A couple of you have asked "are we about to have WW III start" and I saw at least one answer be "Well, it already has" which gave me a spine chilling flashback to a similar scenario.
Yes, the below parallels are very rough ... but I think the comparison is useful.
We take the Mukden Incident (1931) which was a culmination of a few years of push and shove in Manchuria such that by Feb of 1932 it was Japan's and they had set up a 'puppet regime'
(I see a mild parallel to the Donbas and Crimea situations of the teens, though obviously not identical).
You then see another move (albeit for different reasons) in 1937 which is the year that, IMO, WW II began.
Yes, Japan invading China was to my mind the opening shots of World War II
It certainly got a response out of the Americans, particularly after the bombing/civilian casualties of Chunking (<= note aviation content!) and in due course that ongoing war informed / resulted in the serious US embargo of Japan which led to Pearl Harbor) and so on.
Yes, I know, the Eurocentric / Atlantic-biased view is that the German invasion of Poland in 1939 was the start of WW II.
Which takes me to this: if Russia invading Ukraine is the analogue to the 1937 invasion of China by Japan, we are already in WW III and we don't know it yet.
*shudders*
I sincerely hope that this analysis is incorrect, but if we have a look at the air activity in and around Taiwan in the past month or two
and
the news/rumor that the Chinese asked Putin to delay his move into Ukraine until after the Olympics (I've heard this bandied about, not sure how close to the truth this is)
I am left with
as a gut feeling.
To answer a question further up that pr00ne gave a first thwhack at (and rightly so) I reach back to some of my experiences in operational/theater level planning work (which is nearly two decades old).
The question was: why not B-2 mission into Russian airspace?
A lot of reasons, I'll give you a few.
1. It's not the right tool for the job, honestly, nor the right mission for the current situation. B-2's are a limited quantity asset.
They are a strategic asset. There are plenty of theater and tactical level assets better suited to dealing with the invasion of Ukraine that won't signal an escalation into Mother Russia.
At present, non violent means (embargos, financial constrictions) are being used for causing Russia / Russian leadership pain. Armed force isn't the form of suasion being chosen.
2. Deep strike into Russia needlessly raises the stakes in terms of escalation that might lead to Pandora's box being opened: nuclear choice opted for in Moscow based on escalation triggers.
3. The UK and the US had promised to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty (as had Russia) in 1994. While this puts those two nations' (bilateral, not NATO) policy into the spotlight, we are not talking about an Article 5 situation.
If they can do this, adhere to the spirit of that promise without the kind of escalation that a deep strike into Russia with B-2 would create, that's the more prudent course of action.
(Mind you, the spotlight shone rather embarrassingly on the US and UK as regards Crimea ... )
There are other reasons, but these three were the low hanging fruit.
4. A practical consideration.
I agree with a few other posters that the B-2 isn't magic, and I suspect the Russians have their own counters to B-2's low vis/low signature developed by now.
Yes, the below parallels are very rough ... but I think the comparison is useful.
We take the Mukden Incident (1931) which was a culmination of a few years of push and shove in Manchuria such that by Feb of 1932 it was Japan's and they had set up a 'puppet regime'
(I see a mild parallel to the Donbas and Crimea situations of the teens, though obviously not identical).
You then see another move (albeit for different reasons) in 1937 which is the year that, IMO, WW II began.
Yes, Japan invading China was to my mind the opening shots of World War II
It certainly got a response out of the Americans, particularly after the bombing/civilian casualties of Chunking (<= note aviation content!) and in due course that ongoing war informed / resulted in the serious US embargo of Japan which led to Pearl Harbor) and so on.
Yes, I know, the Eurocentric / Atlantic-biased view is that the German invasion of Poland in 1939 was the start of WW II.
Which takes me to this: if Russia invading Ukraine is the analogue to the 1937 invasion of China by Japan, we are already in WW III and we don't know it yet.
*shudders*
I sincerely hope that this analysis is incorrect, but if we have a look at the air activity in and around Taiwan in the past month or two
and
the news/rumor that the Chinese asked Putin to delay his move into Ukraine until after the Olympics (I've heard this bandied about, not sure how close to the truth this is)
I am left with
as a gut feeling. To answer a question further up that pr00ne gave a first thwhack at (and rightly so) I reach back to some of my experiences in operational/theater level planning work (which is nearly two decades old).
The question was: why not B-2 mission into Russian airspace?
A lot of reasons, I'll give you a few.
1. It's not the right tool for the job, honestly, nor the right mission for the current situation. B-2's are a limited quantity asset.
They are a strategic asset. There are plenty of theater and tactical level assets better suited to dealing with the invasion of Ukraine that won't signal an escalation into Mother Russia.
At present, non violent means (embargos, financial constrictions) are being used for causing Russia / Russian leadership pain. Armed force isn't the form of suasion being chosen.
2. Deep strike into Russia needlessly raises the stakes in terms of escalation that might lead to Pandora's box being opened: nuclear choice opted for in Moscow based on escalation triggers.
3. The UK and the US had promised to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty (as had Russia) in 1994. While this puts those two nations' (bilateral, not NATO) policy into the spotlight, we are not talking about an Article 5 situation.
If they can do this, adhere to the spirit of that promise without the kind of escalation that a deep strike into Russia with B-2 would create, that's the more prudent course of action.
(Mind you, the spotlight shone rather embarrassingly on the US and UK as regards Crimea ... )
There are other reasons, but these three were the low hanging fruit.
4. A practical consideration.
I agree with a few other posters that the B-2 isn't magic, and I suspect the Russians have their own counters to B-2's low vis/low signature developed by now.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 4th Mar 2022 at 17:29.
Not directly news on Ukraine but very strongly a spinoff of the situation: UK has guaranteed to assist Sweden militarily in case Russia attacks Sweden.
Ben Wallace stated that Sweden can count on UK's assistance militarily and by all means available in case of Russian attack.
Link is in swedish, sorry for that.
https://www.dn.se/varlden/storbritan...itart-angrepp/
Ben Wallace stated that Sweden can count on UK's assistance militarily and by all means available in case of Russian attack.
Link is in swedish, sorry for that.
https://www.dn.se/varlden/storbritan...itart-angrepp/
Lonewolf 50, I fear, unfortunately, your examples are very pertinent.
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NAROPS
FWIW
I’ve deliberately avoided posting links with pictures of people being killed or dead, there is enough of it out there without adding to it.
FWIW
I’ve deliberately avoided posting links with pictures of people being killed or dead, there is enough of it out there without adding to it.
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The BBC is going old school and bringing back shortwave so those in the Ukraine and Russia can keep abreast of what’s really happening.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0a7784bb2808f
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0a7784bb2808f
SLXOwft
I guess those were the same two I saw (on FR24) taking off from Fairford. Oddly, FR24 lists them as coming from Kemble, or Cotswold Airport as it now is. You'd think that Fairford, with its 10,000-odd ft runway, might be big enough to be noticed....
airsound
The BUFFs are between Prague and Leipzig now, I presume they were sending a message to Vlad.
airsound