Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Hydromet]

Apropos of #213 etc, an engineer I worked with, who went to uni. immediately after WW II, told me that one of their assignments was to describe where they would place explosives to drop/block the Sydney Harbour Bridge. I suspect that such an assignment these days would raise a few eyebrows.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by cynicalint

FDR,


And what would be the concrete military advantage to 'dropping a span;'? Or are you one of those who asks for a target and seeks reasons after? Dropping a bridge span is not as easy as it first seem, and if you are attacking it just because it is a target asking to be taken out, and would be spectacular you are contravening the laws of armed conflict.
,

Nothing is easy when the other team is plinking away, however, the bridge is over a critical waterway to the main port in the region, Rostov-na-donu, so dumping a bunch of debris in the navigable channel would seem to have some merit, and has the benefit of having a low risk to civilians. As far as whether it is a tough target, I can only find a few different systems that exist in the arsenal of Ukraine that can do that from their depots in Ukraine. Ukraine is displaying that little thing that seems to have been lost to most of the world in recent times, a coherent national intent to make things happen, shaming the rest of the world's response to a psycho aggressor. There are many ways of getting a payload onto the spans, and if that alone gives the Russians a headache, then all the better.

Russia is reportedly jamming GPS signals in the straits south of Finland, which is affecting international navigation of civil air traffic. For what it is worth, we have come across this a number of times in recent memory, 4 times to be exact, and that was done not by Putin, but a large neighbor to the south and east of much of Russia. Every aircraft GPS system started to go bye-bye, except for one "aid" our phones and iPads, which use multi-system receivers, and they kept trucking right on through. On two occasions, Hanoi was being messed with, by their northern neighbor, on the other 2 occasions, the Philippines and Japanese were being harassed by... the guys building airports in the South China Sea that are sinking back into the ocean due to inadequate foundations. We don't leave home without Garminpilot or Foreflight on the ipad...

On the other hand, mining the approaches to Kerch and Novorossiysk is not impossible, but will result in casualties to 3rd party shipping. Any country still trading with Russia is fully aware of the risks, but seems a shame to cause damage to 3rd parties, other than denial of support coming from the "return of the evil empire" under the sociopathic and criminal leadership of Pukin.

Pukin is the poster child of self-fulfilling prophecies. His aggression results in both the resolve of other regional states to join NATO due to the threat that Pukin poses, and has put in the spotlight exactly how much damage to the Russian military has arisen from the corruption that comes from the head of the criminal enterprise that Russia has become from Pukin's innate corruption. Other than that, I'm sure he is a nice guy, sends flowers to his mother, and to the family of those that he has poisoned, shot, hung, had trip in showers, had untimely heart attacks etc. Nice guy, invite for dinner, show off to friends etc. Russia didn't need another Stalin, and needs to think why there seems to be a groundhog day of leadership style to the nation, which seems to arise from the fear of retribution that the population has learned, much like a beaten dog. Pavlov was Russian... he might have been on to something there.

[jolihokistix]

One could argue of course that the loss or partial loss of that bridge would tighten considerably the Russian clutch on the land corridor. Following the old Chinese art of war, it might in a certain light be advisable to leave them a viable back door.

[NutLoose]

I mentioned dropping the bridge months ago and no one batted an eyelid as I saw it as the only realistic way they had of pumping items in through Crimea even before a semi held land bridge had been formed, strange you are now all talking about it.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

One could argue of course that the loss or partial loss of that bridge would tighten considerably the Russian clutch on the land corridor. Following the old Chinese art of war, it might in a certain light be advisable to leave them a viable back door.

Quite, however, it transfers initiative to the Ukrainians to set the focus firmly on Crimea, and the coastal access down the coast of the Sea of Azov. knowing exactly where your invader is forced to concentrate permits a fair amount of concentration of your efforts.

The asymmetry of the fight at present is that Russia is forced to be reliant on armor that is proven to be at risk from much lower cost man-portable weapons. The anti-armor weapons can be supplied by single cars or a farmer on a tractor towing a T-72 for good measure. The Russians have to be supplied with fuel, the Ukrainians can operate with minimal fuel supplies. The Russians are trying to get former servicemen to rejoin by bribing with cash bonuses if they are Ok to go to Ukraine, the Ukrainians have volunteers from around the world, from every part of their society, including current female ministers of the government, opposition politicians, and the former president of the country. The only reason that the Russians will get anyone is that they are lying to them, and that is great until the lie is exposed, at which point, we have already seen mass refusal to fight, Russian soldiers changing sides, and Russian soldiers surrendering to unarmed civilians with their intact weapon systems, a donation to Ukraine's efforts. That is ultimately not going to avoid public awareness in Russia. Can anyone imagine Pukin riding bare-chested (bare-breasted? more appropriate) on his horse (or a T-72) towards an irritated group of Ukrainian army troops? Pukin cannot bear to sit within 200' of his cabinet, let alone tussle within grenade distance of someone who has the ability to punch his ticket. Pukin is great at sending his mates and others to jail or adding poison to tea.... or ordering Novichok attacks, not so much on getting his own tender self in front of a fireflight.

Personally, I think that Pukin should consider taking refuge with his admirer Trump and Mike Pompeo, (who seems to have caught the same disease as Pukin) in the dacha at Mar-a-lago. Until the feds turn up. Heck, Mark Meadows can add to that mob and have a new voter registration to add to the ones that he has used recently while talking about voter fraud. What a bunch.

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I mentioned dropping the bridge months ago and no one batted an eyelid as I saw it as the only realistic way they had of pumping items in through Crimea even before a semi held land bridge had been formed, strange you are now all talking about it.

Loose, I think you are absolutely correct, and it remains a necessary action by Ukraine. I think it has not occurred to date as the Ukrainians were too busy trying to survive another day, and then have surprised themselves that the moral support of their population and much of the world has supported their struggle against a criminal, genocidal regime that suffers from bipolar disorder, trying to determine if they are fearful fo the people around them or too busy raping and pillaging their own population, a condition that derives from the elevation of an insignificant deputy mayor of a second-tier city to the position of Prime Minister by fiat, at the whim of the drunkard Boris Yeltsin. Now, thanks to the donations to the Ukrainian military of the "frontline" weapon systems including rockets and MBT's, there is an opportunity for the Ukrainians to use their prodigious ingenuity to plonk some ordnance into spots that can control the direction of the war.

The dropping of that span would stymie the alternative water supply to the criminally annexed region of Crimea, which gains its water supply from the canal system fed from the Kakhovka Reservoir by the North Crimean canal, water from the Dneiper. The Dneiper gets its water in turn from the Dnipro and Pripyat (the one that glows), and the Sozh & Berezina add to the Dnipro. The water may have some sources ex Belarus, but there is more water than Ukraine can use from all sources, and Belarus, where domestic opposition groups sabotaged Russian army trains repositioning forces, yeah, Lukashenko may need to get an AIRBNB booking with his mates at the dacha at Mar a Lago.... Anyway, things happen at their time, that would seem to be a strategically interesting confluence.

Russia reported that the restriction of water supply to Crimea that was done from 2014 onwards had no effect, the Russians reported that agriculture production increased, whereas the USCIA report suggests otherwise. You can be certain that the Russians are lying only when they move their lips.

[pilotmike]

Originally Posted by cynicalint

if you are attacking it just because it is a target asking to be taken out, and would be spectacular you are contravening the laws of armed conflict.

Good to see 'the laws of armed conflict' being adhered to, to the letter. Is it possible someone didn't get the memo?

[Usertim]

It's easy to be an armchair general but on the topic of of bridges , one huge tragedy is that Ukraine failed to blow the Antonovski bridge at Kherson on the first day. Largely I fear because of the treasonous actions of the local administration .
I read a great article https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ike-a-good-bet ). If that had happened then Kherson would not have been occupied, there would not have been huge fighting at Mykoliev ( where RuAF needed to get across the Bug to attack Odesa). In that case at least 2 brigades could have reinforced Nova Kakhova ( head of the crimea canal) and perhaps that would not have fallen , giving another direction for UAF to reinforce towards Mariupol or Melitopol, or to threaten the ingress from Crimea. Sure that would have freed up Rus units too , but they would have been operating on longer supply lines.

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

the loss or partial loss of that bridge would tighten considerably the Russian clutch on the land corridor.

That. And infuriate Putin who rolled the first truck across himself in person. Starting the drive with Y. Gagarin famous words that everyone knows.

He is fighting all of this for his domestic audience. And for sure running out of justifications as fabricated as they were.., giving him one - See the nazis are attacking our territory like I told you so - might not be the best option. Keep in mind he has the capability and numbers to scorch the land and level cities to ground evem without nukes. And frighteningly very few other options.

So far, Ukrainians are playing smarter it seems. Like their lives depended on it?
​​​​

[fdr]

Originally Posted by pilotmike

Good to see 'the laws of armed conflict' being adhered to, to the letter. Is it possible someone didn't get the memo?

Quite so PM, quite.

It appears that Pukin left his reading glasses in the same gutter that he left his soul and morality. Had he had glasses, he might have read the UN Charter:

Article 2: “The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
5. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.

Article 42: “Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.”

Article 51: “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.”

Article 92: “The International Court of Justice shall be the principal judicial organ of the United Nations. It shall function in accordance with the annexed Statute, which is based upon the Statute of the Permanent Court of International Justice and forms an integral part of the present Charter.”

Of course, when the perpetrator is a permanent member of the Security Council, it should be no surprise that the country that is being criminally attacked gets a bit peeved with the system.

Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, (Fourth Geneva Convention, GCIV)
August 1949, passed in 1993 by the UNSC to Geneva Conventions had passed into the body of customary international, thus making them binding on non-signatories to the Conventions whenever they engage in armed conflicts.

Article 2: Application of the Convention

In addition to the provisions which shall be implemented in peacetime, the present Convention shall apply to all cases of declared war or of any other armed conflict which may arise between two or more of the High Contracting Parties, even if the state of war is not recognized by one of them.

Article 4: Definition of protected persons

(defines who is protected person)
Persons protected by the Convention are those who, at a given moment and in any manner whatsoever, find themselves, in case of a conflict or occupation, in the hands of a Party to the conflict or Occupying Power of which they are not nationals.


Article 32: Prohibition of corporal punishment, torture, etc.

A protected person may not have anything done "of such a character as to cause physical suffering or extermination... the physical suffering or extermination of protected persons in their hands. This prohibition applies to murder, torture, corporal punishments, mutilation and medical or scientific experiments not necessitated by the medical treatment. While popular debate remains on what constitutes a legal definition of torture, the ban on corporal punishment simplifies the matter; even the most mundane physical abuse is thereby forbidden by Article 32, as a precaution against alternate definitions of torture.

Article 33: Individual responsibility, collective penalties, pillage and reprisals

"No protected person may be punished for any offense he or she has not personally committed. Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited. Pillage is prohibited. Reprisals against protected persons and their property is prohibited."

Section III. Occupied territories

Article 49: Deportations, transfers, evacuations

Article 49. Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.
Nevertheless, the Occupying Power may undertake total or partial evacuation of a given area if the security of the population or imperative military reasons so demand. Such evacuations may not involve the displacement of protected persons outside the bounds of the occupied territory except when for material reasons it is impossible to avoid such displacement. Persons thus evacuated shall be transferred back to their homes as soon as hostilities in the area in question have ceased.
The Occupying Power undertaking such transfers or evacuations shall ensure, to the greatest practicable extent, that proper accommodation is provided to receive the protected persons, that the removals are effected in satisfactory conditions of hygiene, health, safety and nutrition, and that members of the same family are not separated.
The Protecting Power shall be informed of any transfers and evacuations as soon as they have taken place.
The Occupying Power shall not detain protected persons in an area particularly exposed to the dangers of war unless the security of the population or imperative military reasons so demand.
The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.

Article 53: Prohibited destruction

Article 53. Any destruction by the Occupying Power of real or personal property belonging individually or collectively to private persons, or to the State, or to other public authorities, or to social or cooperative organizations, is prohibited, except where such destruction is rendered absolutely necessary by military operations.


It is time to take the action that is necessary to amend the UN Charter which may not ever be possible or to accept the fact that the UN is a useless structure for world stability and safety. It is as ineffective as the League of Nations was before it. Russia has no business being a member of the UN, and certainly not of the UNSC, and it is stunning that there is no simple means to remove them from the permanent membership of the UNSC, they don't believe in the UN, nor the Geneva Convention and are thus little more than a criminal and terrorist state. When India and Europe and China keeps buying oil and gas from Russia don't be under any illusion that you are not aiding and abetting a criminal, murderous terrorist nation, and the longer it takes to bring them to reasonable conventions of behavior the more damage it does to the world.


FWIW, this war is just the beginning of the turmoil of this century. We are about to enter a time of economic realities that will be earth-shattering, and they stem from the simple statistics of demographics, and the reality of geography. We are not going to get to 10 Billion on the rock, we aren't going to likely pass 8.5, we are about to enter a global famine for much of the world, accelerated by the actions of Russia. At this moment, April 2022, there are 2 Billion that are facing famine in the next 6 months, roughly 25% of the attendees to this party on the 3rd rock. That includes the fast-approaching economic collapse of China and the scrabble that is going to set off for foodstuffs, Famine is coming and is related to the cost and scarcity of food supplies, and the accelerated timeline comes from the cost of both fuel and gas supplies that affect fertilizer availability, and food shipping costs. Not a big deal if you are sitting in Canada (at least in spring or autumn) or Argentina, or USA, but no fun in China, ME, Africa, and other parts of the world. Takes some pressure off Taiwan.


International Court of Justice, Case concerning application of the Convention on the prevention of the crime of genocide (Bosnia and Herzegovina v. Serbia and Montenegro), §398-401 (2007). Available at: http://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-re...D-01-00-EN.pdf

C. Greenwood, Self-Defence, Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law, Oxford Public International Law (2011). Available at: http://opil.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/...-e401?prd=EPIL

Y. Dinstein, War, Aggression and Self – Defence, New York: Cambridge University Press, Fourth edition, 195 (2005)

E. Wilmshurst, Principles of International Law on the use of force by states in self – defence. ILP WP 05/01, Independent Royal Institute of international Affairs: Chatham House,18 (2005). Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publica...rs/view/108106

W.H. Taft IV., Self-Defense and the Oil Platforms Decision, Yale J. Internat. Law, 29(2), article 3,295, 300 (2004). Available at: http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/c...2&context=yjil

E. Wilmshurst, Principles of International Law on the use of force by states in self – defence. ILP WP 05/01, Independent Royal Institute of international Affairs: Chatham House, 18 (2005). Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publica...rs/view/108106; Shaw M.N., International Law, Fifth edition. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2004, p. 1027

A. Cassese, International Law, Oxford University Press, 357–362 (2005); S.S. Alexandrov, Self-Defense Against the Use of Force in International Law, The Hague/London/Boston: Kluwer Law International, 100–101 (1996); R. Värk, The Legal Framework of the Use of Armed Force Revisited, Baltic Security and Defence Review, 15(1), 73 (2013)

[ORAC]

Russia parading the two captured British soldiers on TV answering prepared leading questions and asking for the Ukrainian government to swap them for Medvedchuk.

Aslin is a dual national and has been resident in z Ukraine for several years and is a full legal member of the Ukrainian army.

Russia has as much respect for the Geneva Convention Saddam had. No surprise of course, I don’t think they’ve ever observed it.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...garch-12592938

[ORAC]

GoogleMaps has given the public access to all satellite imagery of Russian military bases, fortifications, facilities, airports, jets, ships, anti-air systems, nuclear rocket launchpads, etc.

e.g. ICBM site….




Kuznetsov in refit…





Fill your boots…

[NutLoose]

he alternative water supply to the criminally annexed region of Crimea, which gains its water supply from the canal system fed from the Kakhovka Reservoir by the North Crimean canal,

Shame they couldn't drop a couple of hundred tons of LSD into the canal water and let the Russians fight it out amongst themselves

[fitliker]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Shame they couldn't drop a couple of hundred tons of LSD into the canal water and let the Russians fight it out amongst themselves

Maybe they could divert some of the fentanyl being shipped from China to the West . The fentanyl and easy availability of cheap mind altering drugs seems to be killing off the youth and destroying the west’s ability to win wars . You do not need to defeat an enemy , you can watch them self destruct from a safe distance . There many dangers in using poisons .

[B Fraser]

I did hear a very salacious story third hand regarding the Kuznetsov accident. It was in a floating dry dock which suffered a power failure, causing the ballast tanks to flood. The dock then listed which resulted in a crane toppling and falling through the deck.

The story goes that a certain country was not happy about the earlier use of noxious substances within its' borders.

[T28B]

Esteemed colleagues: please put forth the effort to maintain a military-operational focus in the discussions in this thread on the Military Aviation forum.
We grant that there is some overlap with politics, as there is with all matters military. With that granted, a variety of political topics raised do not belong in this thread. They are Off Topic.
If (to use the example of some of the posts that I have removed) you want to discuss elections, and your views on their influence in this conflict, then take that side discussion to the JB thread.
Thank you all, in advance
T28B

[NutLoose]

The LSD into the water supply on the build up to war was a worry in RAFG, as you would have a bunch of folks running around high as a kite and armed.

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

The LSD into the water supply on the build up to war was a worry in RAFG, as you would have a bunch of folks running around high as a kite and armed.

Just like most of the Wehrmacht during WW2 with the amount of Pervitin they consumed.....

[KiloB]

BF.
Strange that, I heard the same story!

[NutLoose]

It’s being reported that the captain of one of the Landing Ships seen sailing out of the harbour on fire, while the other Landing Ship that was on fire and sank at its mooring, has died in the action.

https://seawaves.com/?p=20914

[rattman]

Stormer MHV to be sent to ukriane

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/182987...s-ukraine-war/

Still saying as I have from the start. UK should bite the bullet and send Challenger 2 and AS-90's as well. If any european power can afford to be without armor for a few years will they wait for next gen or upgrade to better tanks its the UK. The would require to be exempted from some NATO requirement. Meanwhile they can lease / buy abrams from the massive stockpile the US has, same with either PZ-2000 / M-109 or upgraded polish AS-90 or straight buy some new, the previous list + K9. 200 or Challengers is a big enough group to make support easier instead of having to train and sustain 5 tanks her, 20 there. Challengers dont have the disadvantage of the abrams that it has a conventional power plant and dont have to train complete group of ukrainians from scratch on how to look after turbine engines