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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Apr 2022, 15:07
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
A good articl thanks Nutty. A rather pertinent quote from it“We have exaggerated the risk, and the Russians know this,” he said. “We have the most powerful alliance in the history of the world scared to provide 25-year-old aircraft to a country that’s fighting for its life.”

“If we are the arsenal of democracy, then let’s be the arsenal of democracy and open the doors and push everything out that [Ukrainians] possibly need,”
It's not that strange, that things go gradually.

Remember the old adage, dumping a frog in boiling water, makes it jumping out, vs the slow heat-up and the frog happily indulges in a warm bath ?

And despite Ukraine asking for Migs, there does not seem to have been a big need for aircraft. Much more for SAMs, Manpads, ATGM, ATGW, Artillery, drones and the like. As long as operational BUK systems are in the area, keep out of that area with your aircraft. Use drones to do the dirty work.

On top of that, getting a heavily partisan divided congress approving your money requests, as a president you need to take care, the congress wants more than you "intend" to do. From then on, the congress won't complain, when you start spending billions. It just takes time.

Regarding the nuclear threats: Moving the Russian nukes to the Finnish boarder sounds impressive, though, given these things do have sufficient range to reach all of Europe, even when fired from Moscow, bordering does not bring much advantage. Of course, unless you have doubts about the technical quality of these things and want to avoid them nuking your own territory. In the end, from the maintenance state of both Russian army and navy, we see that not much is done to keep things shiny, let alone functional. Nukes need to be overhauled every 10 years (costly), to operate reliable. Radiation destroys pretty well everything, as well that due to natural decay of especially Plutonium, you have the risk of ending up below the critical mass/density and the nuke won't explode when triggered.


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Old 16th Apr 2022, 15:35
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Originally Posted by pasta
Russia claiming that the strikes took out the factories that built the missiles that didn't hit their cruiser.
Precision strike on a factory claimed. Same thing on theatres, hospitals and apartment blocks denied.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 15:46
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One of the problems Russia now faces is they have destroyed, raped and killed large parts of the Donbas they recognised as independent and in the south they have alienated large parts of the Russian speaking populace that are now seeing the cost of their freedom. and they do not want the Russian occupiers full stop. You get the feeling they now want to remain part of Ukraine.

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Old 16th Apr 2022, 17:16
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FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…

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Old 16th Apr 2022, 18:15
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The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

Russia warns Czechia against supplying weapons to Ukraine, Prague says won't respond to blackmail. Russia claimed that the Czech Republic isn’t allowed to provide Ukraine with Soviet-made weapons without Russian permission. Czech Defense Minister brushed off these claims.

The Kyiv Independent

Italy closes its ports to Russian ships starting April 17. Under EU sanctions, Russian ships anchored in Italian ports will have to leave after completing their commercial activity. The ban will also apply to ships that changed their flag after Feb. 24 to circumvent sanctions.

Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Apr 2022 at 18:30.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 19:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…

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Old 16th Apr 2022, 19:02
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
Has this not aged weirdly?





But then, neither Shoigu was a soldier.
Poland’s guy looks right proper for the job. If not that, he could pass (sans the facial hair) for a pissed off Sergeant Major.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 19:41
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Pains me to say but the Russian advance around Izyium looks far better organized and threatening than anything they have done to date.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 19:47
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv
From an article here.
An independent Russian website calculated that on Saturday Russian forces had sent a record 52 missiles from the occupied Black Sea port of Sevastopol, and at least 18 from Belarusian territory. The website, The Insider, found that of the 70 rockets, at least eight landed, meaning that Ukraine had also repelled a significant amount. Those figures could not be independently verified.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 20:30
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Pains me to say but the Russian advance around Izyium looks far better organized and threatening than anything they have done to date.
dead-pan, Please can you share your source(s) 👍
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 20:38
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Poland’s guy looks right proper for the job.
Sure. While he got replaced in 2018, the larger context is U.v.d.Leyen got boo(s)ted from her position of MoD GER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_von_der_Leyen to become the apex EU official. Some scary details in the Wiki article.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 20:49
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Originally Posted by ORAC
FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…

Wonder if they could arrest the someone who really is to blame, and put an end to this evil.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 20:57
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Interesting read on what artillery Ukraine needs and why.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/wh...aine-need-now/

also, the long war.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/su...he-long-war-2/

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Apr 2022 at 21:17.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 21:05
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
While bad, it does strike me as retaliatory and counter productive, having shifted their focus to the East, lobbing missiles to the North are not doing anything militarily to bolster the offensive in the East. It’s almost as if Putin has spat his dummy out over the sinking and is illogically shooting at Kyiv to get his own back.

Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Apr 2022 at 21:17.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 21:05
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SAS troops training use of NLAW

How likely do people find this ? This is meant to be an easy missile to use, and presumably lots of training was given before war started - or was given in Poland etc when war started. Since there would have been good numbers of Ukranians trained, who would then act as trainers themselves back in Ukraine, it would seem to be monumentally stupid of the MOD to have British serving soldiers in Ukraine. If you recall the high-level panic there was when there was just one soldier who deserted and was supposedly wanting to travel to Ukraine to fight, this becomes more unbelievable.

That apart why SAS ( apart from headline value ) ? They will not be specialists with these weapons, will have fired many fewer than some other units and will not know all the technical answers. I understand that this info supposedly comes from Ukranian sources, but it doesn't sound believable to me
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 21:08
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In the short term Western manufacturing capability is of limited value...but if this Invasion drags out that logistics base shall prove to be critical IF it is geared up to a war time footing.

As foresight is not a stellar facet of our bloated government procurement system in the USA....let's hope the Wise Men at the Pentagon can convince the leadership of the need to cut red tape...streamline the process....and get the stuff built, shipped, and delivered to the Ukraine Forces in an expedited manner.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 21:33
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A lot haven’t even seen street lighting, pavements or indoor toilets.

Another captured Brit

https://twitter.com/ILRUSSO1/status/1515361439325765639

https://twitter.com/talkrealopinion/status/1515361742938902537
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 21:49
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Originally Posted by SASless
In the short term Western manufacturing capability is of limited value...but if this Invasion drags out that logistics base shall prove to be critical IF it is geared up to a war time footing.

As foresight is not a stellar facet of our bloated government procurement system in the USA....let's hope the Wise Men at the Pentagon can convince the leadership of the need to cut red tape...streamline the process....and get the stuff built, shipped, and delivered to the Ukraine Forces in an expedited manner.
+

Some of it is undoubtedly down to that, but standardised production does not rely on people rushing a basketful of goods from one machine to another. It will have to go through approved QA methods and lots of other things. That apart, you are not going to be able to hustle 70 or 120 component suppliers to toss their manufacturing schedules out of the window.
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Old 16th Apr 2022, 22:53
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Originally Posted by SASless
In the short term Western manufacturing capability is of limited value...but if this Invasion drags out that logistics base shall prove to be critical IF it is geared up to a war time footing.

As foresight is not a stellar facet of our bloated government procurement system in the USA....let's hope the Wise Men at the Pentagon can convince the leadership of the need to cut red tape...streamline the process....and get the stuff built, shipped, and delivered to the Ukraine Forces in an expedited manner.
I read an article quite a while ago - basically said that the next big war would be fought with what you had on hand - that the lead time associated with modern weapons was so long - and their lethality so great (i.e. losses would be so massive and rapid) that by the time you could ramp up massive production (WW II style), the war would be over.
We saw that in the Middle East in the Gulf Wars - while the resultant insurgencies lasted for many years, the conventional warfare was over in days or weeks. I'm quite frankly surprised that the war in Ukraine has gone on this long - it says a lot for the quality of the Ukrainian defense (and the ineptitude of the Russian attack).
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 01:13
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I do wonder how close some countries are to the cut off point, it’s ok pouring weapons into the country but at some point you start to make yourself vulnerable.
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