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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 15th Apr 2022, 09:36
  #4321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ramble on
What’s the point of linking a paywalled article?
my apologies, this should work. A bit shorter version but carries the main points: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nucle.../31804539.html
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 09:55
  #4322 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose

I can never understand the Russian, we can wage a war in your country, but their shock horror when the opposition actually fights back and returns that favour.
..
Well, for whatever reason, the Ukranians seem to be "co-operating " with this idea as they have not claimed any attacks into Russia ( bar two missiles early on ). I have no idea if this is lack of weaponry, better targets in Ukraine or a political strategy.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 09:58
  #4323 (permalink)  
 
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|t's off the charts in that show, what ever it is... there was a woman earlier making a strong case for stronger repression inside Russia and the guy in black referring to Ukranians and the west as satan and nazis... Guess the show is where they make entertainment of it and spreading the narrative...


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Old 15th Apr 2022, 10:02
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Originally Posted by Beamr
They are preparing the audience for war against the west, just in case this situation escalates.
Firstly: in Russia no one says nothing that isn't approved by Kremlin, especially the media.
Secondly: The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

I do wish I am wrong on this however it all seems to be going to a bad direction.
That is one interpretation, but I think that it is more likely that a prolonged and costly war against Ukraine would be seen as a deeply embarrassing failure for Russia's armed forced. If it is portrayed as a war against NATO, then the lack of progress and heavy losses are much more easily explained and less humiliating. I doubt that Russia actually wants direct conflict with NATO.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 10:20
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Originally Posted by Recc
. I doubt that Russia actually wants direct conflict with NATO.
I would like to think that what Russia wants is very different from what Putin wants. However, we were all very doubtful of Russia really unleashing a full scale war in Ukraine just seven weeks ago.

I'd love to be wrong on this.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 10:52
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An interesting turn of events today...

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has reportedly suffered a massive heart attack amid the war with Ukraine and foul play is being suspected.

Apparently hooked up to machines for life support

Sergei Shoigu,

IG

Last edited by Imagegear; 15th Apr 2022 at 11:17.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 10:53
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I would like to think that what Russia wants is very different from what Putin wants. However, we were all very doubtful of Russia really unleashing a full scale war in Ukraine just seven weeks ago.
It is a good point to make, but again I wouldn't be too pessimistic. I was convinced in late 2021/ early 2022 that there would be a large scale war in Ukraine after reading well-reasoned articles from knowledgeable commentators who made the point convincingly that the only route to a Russian strategic victory in Ukraine would be a forcible change of government through the occupation of the entire country. All the other scenarios would not have delivered what Putin needed. The point I'm making is that the decisions we saw were entirely rational (and predictable) based on Putin's view of Russian strategic interest and weren't the actions of a deranged (or delusional) mind. Clearly in hindsight the decision to invade was made on overly optimistic assessment's of Russian capability, but (to be fair) their military performance has been much more surprising than the fact that the invasion happened. I don't think that there is any evidence yet that Putin is acting in a deliberately self-destructive manner although, of course, it would be foolish to deny that he might.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 11:15
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Originally Posted by Recc
the only route to a Russian strategic victory in Ukraine would be a forcible change of government through the occupation of the entire country. All the other scenarios would not have delivered what Putin needed. t.
I agree on this and apparently all the western intelligence services too (see the statement by William Burns, CIA). The million lives question is how do we help Ukraine to avoid this result or is Kremlin already thinking that the west is a part in the war making everyone a legit target in Putins twisted mind.
Putin changed the rules, he is unpredictable and I hope the stanislavpetrovs of the world are in place when they are needed the most.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 11:21
  #4329 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mariner9
Abandoning all pretence that it wasn't an attack then?
The fact the rest of the fleet backed way way off must hint at the fact it was hit.

A senior U.S. Defense official said earlier on Thursday that following the explosion and significant fire on the Moskva, about six warships in the northern Black Sea moved south.

“At this point, we hold them no closer than about 80 nautical miles from the coast,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. “But ships move and I can’t predict where there’ll be an hour from now.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/russ...e-updates.html
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:09
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The fact the rest of the fleet backed way way off must hint at the fact it was hit.
l
What I don't understand is that the Neptun has a range of 300 km, yet they have supposedly only retreated to 140 km ( although 300 km would put them back in harbour in Sevastopol )
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:24
  #4331 (permalink)  

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I noticed that the logo on the BBC's "App" icon on my iphone changed to a red square a few days ago.

Just showing their true allegiances?
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:26
  #4332 (permalink)  
 
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TF,

But the report was one point in time, ships do move, does it not also put them out of range of the UAV's? It would also give them more time to react to a threat.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:36
  #4333 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
What I don't understand is that the Neptun has a range of 300 km, yet they have supposedly only retreated to 140 km ( although 300 km would put them back in harbour in Sevastopol )
Isn't that more consistent with the range of Harpoon?
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:54
  #4334 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
TF,

, does it not also put them out of range of the UAV's? It would also give them more time to react to a threat.
I have no idea what area their sensors can cover; in any case, would the Russkis not be assuming that targetting data is being fed from NATO observation assets ?
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:57
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Isn't that more consistent with the range of Harpoon?
No idea. I consulted Wiki.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 13:03
  #4336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShyTorque
I noticed that the logo on the BBC's "App" icon on my iphone changed to a red square a few days ago.

Just showing their true allegiances?
And the sport app is now a yellow square.

If you think BBC News has an allegiance to Russia you obviously haven't been watching their reports from the likes of Bucha or their interview with Zelensky.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 13:03
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The Turkish Drones have a fairly short operational radius and the movement mentioned would probably counter that UAV.

On the other hand....larger more capable UAV's are in the mix....and can easily cover the entire Black Sea.

Who is operating those more sophisticated UAV's remains classified by Ukraine and other Nations.

Then we should also remember Space Based systems that could be employed or even Submarines.

There is no knowing by the public as to where the targeting data came from.

However, the Ukraine Military gets to pass the message "Scratch one Cruiser!".
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 13:08
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Originally Posted by ShyTorque
I noticed that the logo on the BBC's "App" icon on my iphone changed to a red square a few days ago.

Just showing their true allegiances?
Hiding in plain sight . Those annoying trots in the students union now have careers in journalism.
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 13:32
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I wonder if Ukraine, led by NATO intel and training, is deliberately dictating what Putin does causing him to fail?
In the same way a few bombs dropped on Berlin caused Hitler to switch from bombing RAF Airfields to civilian targets, I wonder of sinking the Moskva could cause a similar reaction?
Lead him down the garden path using his outrage as a carrot?
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Old 15th Apr 2022, 14:02
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Originally Posted by SASless
or even Submarines.
Rather unlikely, given what I outlined to TF a month ago. (Imagegear followed my post with some info on submarine ops in the Black Sea).
If you want to bet a line in Vegas on sources of info that are not organic to Ukraine, something on or above the surface, or in space, is the line to place your money upon.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 15th Apr 2022 at 14:32.
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