Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,056
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Now I can understand why the U.K. is senior officers top heavy 
missed one:
Aleksandr Chirva: Captain 3rd Class of the Ropucha class tub,Caesar Kunikov at Berdyansk. His was the most seaward of the two ships evacuating the docks, and it was already seriously damaged. He was doing his duty, and that didn't directly involve shooting bound civilians in the back of their heads so that probably is something.
Aleksandr Chirva: Captain 3rd Class of the Ropucha class tub,Caesar Kunikov at Berdyansk. His was the most seaward of the two ships evacuating the docks, and it was already seriously damaged. He was doing his duty, and that didn't directly involve shooting bound civilians in the back of their heads so that probably is something.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,056
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
If I remember correctly his crew had all fled and his officer had threatened to shoot him if he did, so he contacted Ukraine to take up the offer, they had to sort out a surrender point as the Ukrainians were worried about a trap, daft thing is the price offered for surrendering items went up later.
There are lots of rumour about bayraktar parts+drones, but the strangest seems to be Poland getting Italian surplus tranche 1 Eurofighters to replace mig29's delivered to Ukraine.
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Temporarily missing from the Joe Louis Arena
Posts: 2,131
Received 27 Likes
on
16 Posts
Wasn't it Slim who said "nothing improves morale in the common soldier more than seeing one of his General's dead?"
Yeah, but a look at the confirmed data is telling. There is a lot of missing information, such as numbers of systems deployed vs losses, number of systems removed while not deployed etc, but the picture I would suggest makes a case for the continuation and immediate expansion of an asymmetric capability, which alters the tools needed to be added to the tool shed.
Russia had a purported 12,500 tanks available entering this tiff, in reality they had around 3,000-3,500 available tanks, so the confirmed losses recorded by Onyx indicate that they have had about 10% (really roughly) lost directly, but about the same abandoned and captured. The abandoned tanks are from logistics (no gas) or from strategic blunders (stuck in mud, who would have thought that there would have been mud in Ukraine, in spring... and how good is a command & control system when the generals cannot speak freely to the billy goat at the top that this is a bad idea, knowing that they get offed as a result). Russia has lost some 10 generals so far as in dead, kaput. They have lost a further 20 odd that are sacked or arrested by their Dear Leader. The Navy lost their head (still has his, but it is early and at the rate that Lefortovo is filling up, there is probably a pig farm somewhere nearby that will start to get feed from the Kremlin).
Anyway, half of the losses arise from capture, and a lot of the capture is due to the disinclination of the crews to be in this criminal campaign. In a set battle between tanks, as happened in the Golan Heights, in the absence of confounding factors, (drones, drones, drones etc., and drones... ) the outcome is dependent on logistics (ammo available) preparation (berms etc) and spotting for artillery (drones again). If the Russians have drones in the field, a static force in prepared location is a target. That suggests that gifts of MBTs etc is not going to be the most effective aid to the Ukrainians, getting more ATW into the field and having the ability to target at a distance is going to be a fair alternative. The Russians do not have the current manpower or will to march en-masse into a prepared position, so they have to prep first, and that brings out their drone needs as well. Taking out the Russian drones that may spot for arty is the single greatest kindness that can be offered to the Ukrainians, IMHO. That is in keeping with asymmetric warfare, and that permits the actions of the Russians to be dependent on blind fire which is a costly and logistical difficulty.
The Ukrainian use of the Javelin may need to be more controlled, an RPG will achieve results against most of the systems in the list below, the Javelin is worthy of application against MBTs and leave the softer vehicles to RPGs. MLAW supply status is unknown, but they are still going to be more constrained in resupply than RPG rounds.
Easy to say from X,000 miles away. The Ukrainians should be supported by all UN signatory nations, and that they are not is a disgrace on every country that does not actively support them. The UN Charter is pretty darn clear on the obligations of members, and the fact that the UNSC cannot approve picking their own nose or more appropriately, wiping their collective backsides leaves the stench of a rotten institution in the nostrils. Ukraine needs all the support it can get, now, not tomorrow, but it also needs support that it can field effectively against the monstrosity that is Putin's Zombie military.
Russia had a purported 12,500 tanks available entering this tiff, in reality they had around 3,000-3,500 available tanks, so the confirmed losses recorded by Onyx indicate that they have had about 10% (really roughly) lost directly, but about the same abandoned and captured. The abandoned tanks are from logistics (no gas) or from strategic blunders (stuck in mud, who would have thought that there would have been mud in Ukraine, in spring... and how good is a command & control system when the generals cannot speak freely to the billy goat at the top that this is a bad idea, knowing that they get offed as a result). Russia has lost some 10 generals so far as in dead, kaput. They have lost a further 20 odd that are sacked or arrested by their Dear Leader. The Navy lost their head (still has his, but it is early and at the rate that Lefortovo is filling up, there is probably a pig farm somewhere nearby that will start to get feed from the Kremlin).
Anyway, half of the losses arise from capture, and a lot of the capture is due to the disinclination of the crews to be in this criminal campaign. In a set battle between tanks, as happened in the Golan Heights, in the absence of confounding factors, (drones, drones, drones etc., and drones... ) the outcome is dependent on logistics (ammo available) preparation (berms etc) and spotting for artillery (drones again). If the Russians have drones in the field, a static force in prepared location is a target. That suggests that gifts of MBTs etc is not going to be the most effective aid to the Ukrainians, getting more ATW into the field and having the ability to target at a distance is going to be a fair alternative. The Russians do not have the current manpower or will to march en-masse into a prepared position, so they have to prep first, and that brings out their drone needs as well. Taking out the Russian drones that may spot for arty is the single greatest kindness that can be offered to the Ukrainians, IMHO. That is in keeping with asymmetric warfare, and that permits the actions of the Russians to be dependent on blind fire which is a costly and logistical difficulty.
The Ukrainian use of the Javelin may need to be more controlled, an RPG will achieve results against most of the systems in the list below, the Javelin is worthy of application against MBTs and leave the softer vehicles to RPGs. MLAW supply status is unknown, but they are still going to be more constrained in resupply than RPG rounds.
Easy to say from X,000 miles away. The Ukrainians should be supported by all UN signatory nations, and that they are not is a disgrace on every country that does not actively support them. The UN Charter is pretty darn clear on the obligations of members, and the fact that the UNSC cannot approve picking their own nose or more appropriately, wiping their collective backsides leaves the stench of a rotten institution in the nostrils. Ukraine needs all the support it can get, now, not tomorrow, but it also needs support that it can field effectively against the monstrosity that is Putin's Zombie military.
ie 22 AC vs. 169 in Nutloose's running tallies from Kyiv Independent.
or Helos 35 vs. 150
or MLRS 55 vs. 132
as examples of large variance in numbers. I know facts are hard to come by but something is way off as I see it, or am I missing soemthing?
fdr , what is the source please of the graphic in your post? The numbers differ wildly from those in other, attributed, messages.
ie 22 AC vs. 169 in Nutloose's running tallies from Kyiv Independent.
or Helos 35 vs. 150
or MLRS 55 vs. 132
as examples of large variance in numbers. I know facts are hard to come by but something is way off as I see it, or am I missing soemthing?
ie 22 AC vs. 169 in Nutloose's running tallies from Kyiv Independent.
or Helos 35 vs. 150
or MLRS 55 vs. 132
as examples of large variance in numbers. I know facts are hard to come by but something is way off as I see it, or am I missing soemthing?
Tank v tank is not a great option for Ukraine, but coordinated drone spotting and arty would seem to be very effective. If TB-2s have the munition supply, then great too, but arty with correction is going to have a greater weight on target as things are going at present. Stopping the Russians doing the same is the most asymmetric option that could be employed at this time. There are systems, they are not in widespread use.
Overstating wins and minimising losses is historical of all conflict, and is good PR, but the decisions that are taken need to be made on valid data, and that suggests at present that exuberant overstating of a system effectiveness can result in getting the wrong system to the warfighter.
Tanks right now are targets, they could be helpful for the Blue 'n gold if positioned in cover without Red team drone observation. Open fields will be brutal for MBT/IFV/AFVs that are not rapidly advancing. Bottlenecks will set up kill boxes pretty quickly. If this is a valid position it suggests that the Blue 'n Gold have force multiplier if they can disrupt Red drone ISR. That is good until the Reds get around to doing the same, but they have to go ask the Chinese for DJI, or Ukraine for the same.... so, they have a bit of an issue with the consequences of their actions.
The most asymmetric response is to run a lottery for Russians for whoever removes Putin to an asylum or
PS: ORYX data was reasonable where there was access to the area of combat losses. Right now, that is going to be way out of date and will understate the Russian losses greatly, and will probably understate Ukrainian losses as well. Drone footage is still being published, that is mainly from the Ukraine side.
Last edited by fdr; 20th Apr 2022 at 10:23.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,056
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Yes, they are confirmed and photographed, but not every one so far will have been photographed, therefore the numbers could be higher, remember the Ukrainian figures I post are their estimates plus their propaganda add ons…
if you look at WW2, the RAF and Luftwaffe figures varied enormously and when checked against released official figures post war differed quite a bit. In those days you could get several pilots claiming the same aircraft.
if you look at WW2, the RAF and Luftwaffe figures varied enormously and when checked against released official figures post war differed quite a bit. In those days you could get several pilots claiming the same aircraft.
Last edited by T28B; 20th Apr 2022 at 11:58. Reason: space clutter
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcr...ress-briefing/
Kirby: Some nations have provided spare parts so that they can get their inoperable tanks operable again. And I would say the same on -- on aircraft. I mean, they have received support on -- for -- for -- to -- to get some of their fixed-wing aircraft, you know, more operable again. So I mean, look, the proof’s in the pudding there. I mean, they right now have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did two weeks ago. And that's not by accident, that's because other nations who have experience with those kinds of aircraft have been able to help them get -- get more aircraft up -- up and running.
....(later in the same press conference)...
Q: And you said earlier that the Ukrainians have now more fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago. Can you give us...
MR. KIRBY: More operable fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago.
Q: So can you give us an idea of – did they receive more? And an idea of how many? Dozens?
MR. KIRBY: I would just say without getting into what other nations are providing that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size -- their aircraft fleet size, I think I'd leave it at that. Platforms and parts.
Q: What is a platform?
MR. KIRBY: Platform is an airplane in this case. They have received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them, you know, get more aircraft in the air. Yes. So whether it is fulcrum, frogfoot or bayraktar I do not know.
....(later in the same press conference)...
Q: And you said earlier that the Ukrainians have now more fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago. Can you give us...
MR. KIRBY: More operable fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago.
Q: So can you give us an idea of – did they receive more? And an idea of how many? Dozens?
MR. KIRBY: I would just say without getting into what other nations are providing that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size -- their aircraft fleet size, I think I'd leave it at that. Platforms and parts.
Q: What is a platform?
MR. KIRBY: Platform is an airplane in this case. They have received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them, you know, get more aircraft in the air. Yes. So whether it is fulcrum, frogfoot or bayraktar I do not know.
Last edited by T28B; 20th Apr 2022 at 12:00. Reason: attribution and formatting
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...may-not-matter
Russia Likely has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter
Russia Likely has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
Or the recently retired Romanian Mig-21 Lancer-Cs?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
Possibly but more likely the a polish mig 29's as polish media have been stating the last few days that 13-16 tranche 1 eurofighters are coming from italy as interim fighter to replace the Mig-29's
Or the recently retired Romanian Mig-21 Lancer-Cs?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine
And the old mig21's would be suicide missions against just about any AA equipment or FJ's in the air.
Yes, they are visually confirmed but not every one will have been photographed, remember the Ukrainian figures I post are their estimates plus their propaganda add ons…
if you look at WW2, the RAF and Luftwaffe figures varied enormously and when checked against released official figures post war differed quite a bit. In those days you could get several pilots claiming the same aircraft.
if you look at WW2, the RAF and Luftwaffe figures varied enormously and when checked against released official figures post war differed quite a bit. In those days you could get several pilots claiming the same aircraft.
I have a question for those that have to play music really really loud: a number of reported arty strikes by indirect fire spotted by drones show munition detonation that has a linear fragmentation pattern, much like the ATW's. The fragmentation appears to be before and after the target. Doesn't seem to be consistent with H.E. or A.P., or HESH, or HEAT; wondering what detonates with such a pattern.