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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Apr 2022, 19:22
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Soldiers who have served only -please . How do you view the surrender ultimatum for ,

As above ..for Mariupol ?
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 19:55
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I don't see anything in there about the USA supplying modern aircraft f.o.c. which was the point i was making about your post.
I was wrong. This post Polish gov site indicates Poland would purchase the replacement aircraft from the USA.

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Old 17th Apr 2022, 20:19
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
As above ..for Mariupol ?
Bearing in mind i’m ex military but not a pongo, I would doubt they would considering it due to the Russians genocide treatment of civilians so far, it might be seen as a one way trip to a mobile crematorium. Far better taking your chances.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 20:41
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UKR army reported to have started a major counter-attack east from Kharkiv and potentially cutting Russian supply lines from Belogorod south to Izyum.

The advance has reportedly already passed the settlements of Bazaliyivka, Lebiazhe and part of Kutuzivka.



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Old 17th Apr 2022, 21:15
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Originally Posted by fdr
Switch Blades, concur it may well be systems, and it is also as likely to use the term "300" to not disclose the actual number of the devices going into Ukraine. I would think that we are not talking about 300 x "300" systems.... I suspect that smart peeps who get paid to do the maths have taken note of the relative effectiveness of the TB-2 and possibly more interesting homegrown weaponizing of DJI drones with dropped devices. The video of a T-72 launching the turret from a quadcopter drop of an improvised aerial expendable makes a compelling case for every man and his dog (and cats) having access to enough grenades/DJI's, Switchblade systems to take the fight to the INVADERS. The asymmetric capability of 1 person carrying a backpack full of air-droppable ordnance stacked against another sociopathic dictator and his minions is compelling. It is poetic that Russia suddenly finds itself short of weapon manufacturing capability, noting that Ukraine was a primary center for the supply of military technology and weapon production for Russia.

I would wager that there are more switchblade rounds going in than there are vehicles in the remainder of the Russian army. Either way, the Russians in Donbas will find out soon enough.

The real asymmetric value comes from having the rounds available to be dosed out as desired by the Russian's actions, with the surveillance being conducted by the DJI systems and similar. Yes, anti-drone capability does exist in some limited capacity with some forces around the world, but they are not evident in the field at present, so there is probably a bit of thinking going on in Russia on that score, after all, they have no simple access to the production of capable tech (that was done in the Ukraine, and most required western supplied IC and components...). If Russia spent more time listening to the concerns of the rest of the world, and less time lying to their own people, perhaps they would not be concerned with the historical 9-gateways of invasion that seem to preoccupy President Pukin's cognition. If he started listening to the concerns of his own people, the opposition (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny...Boris Nemtsov...) instead of murdering them, or those trying to report, (Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya...Igor Domnikov, Sergey Novikov, Iskandar Khatloni, Sergey Ivanov, Adam Tepsurgayev, Eduard Markevich, Natalya Skryl, Valery Ivanov, Aleksei Sidorov, Dmitry Shvets, Paul Klebnikov, Magomedzagid Varisov..) and sundry "threats to Pukin" (Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, Ashlan Maskhadov, Abdul-Halim Sadulayev, Arbi Barayev, Ibn Al-khattab, Abu Al-walid, Turpal-Ali Atgeriyev, Salman Raduyev, Ruslan Gelayev, Magomedzagir Akayev, Khura-Magomed Ramazanov, Umar Israilov, Alexander Litvinenko, The Sergei Skripal / Yulia Sergeevna Skripal Novichok attack... ) and..., Boris Berezovsky, Alexander Perepilichnyy, Gareth Williams, Georgi Markov, the attempt on German Gorbuntsov, Vitaly Churkin, Denis Voronenkov, dioxin attack against Viktor Yushchenko, the poisoning of Petr Verzilov and a whole bunch more. Speaking out against Pukin increases the risk of accidentally hanging yourself in a bathroom, or slipping on a couple of Makarov casings. Probably is an exclusion on most Russian life insurance policies.



Is the 1992 agreement subsequent to START I? If it was START II, that was never ratified, and was not binding. START I of course, was a 15-year term with an option for 5-year extensions, and a proposal to make it an indefinite period, but that was also never ratified. That leaves START I which ceased to have effect on 5th December 2009. Any compliance with START I even when it was in force was under the National Technical Means, NTM, of verification, which the other side was not permitted to interfere with. So START I was as good as the paper that was missing at the toilets in UUEE terminal last time I visited and spent hours in the queue in the vomit green corridor with all the rest of the crews with the misfortune to be experiencing the pleasure of Russian efficiency.

I made a rough estimate of when Pukin would light the touchpaper on a tactical nuke, irrespective of it being upwind of significant Russian population centers, and I don't see any evidence that is off the options menu for this psycho as yet. I think I still have 3 weeks to run for that estimate, the probability is not zero, but thankfully it isn't 1 either. The West and NATO don't have many options to play in that event, except for every single possible permutation on a near-infinite spectrum, but they really boil down to 2; Give in to Russia, the new leaders of the world... Nah, that ain't gonna happen, or to send in immediately UN (really, there is still a UN even while the permanent members of the UN include a psycho) or NATO or allied concerned countries into Ukraine (and Finland, Sweden, as a tripwire force), increase presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland etc.... With a declaration of collective defence, what Ukraine needed Obama to do in 2014. before MI-17 etc. Of course, I would expect the next few weeks to prove me wrong, I sure hope so.

PS: My idea of a target asking to be taken out -

There's a bridge over the straights at Kerch that has a span that asks to be dropped, and the great thing is, it's on Ukrainian territory if you disregard the unlawful annexation of Crimea by Pukin. Gonna take a package of Hrim-2's, but eminently worthy of the effort. Add some captors outside of Novorossiysk... make a picnic of it. Pukin seems to be mighty sensitive for a bully when his nose hairs get yanked, "eyes well up 'n everythang".

Are these the 2 spans to which you refer? They would cut the highway, railway and the shipping channel as a bonus.


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Old 17th Apr 2022, 21:35
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Originally Posted by fdr
...... If Russia spent more time listening to the concerns of the rest of the world, and less time lying to their own people, perhaps they would not be concerned with the historical 9-gateways of invasion that seem to preoccupy President Pukin's cognition. If he started listening to the concerns of his own people, the opposition ...instead of murdering them, or those trying to report, .... and sundry "threats to Pukin" .... and..., .... and a whole bunch more.
Yep, or so to say, Putin just did take the wrong cross road when getting in power. Forgetting, that when creating an environment where other countries want to join your pack (as the EU did), you get to a much better and stronger together, then, when you force the parties to join (with sometime extreme violence). But, alas, he did come from the KGB with a crumpled mindset accordingly.
Originally Posted by fdr
...... With a declaration of collective defence, what Ukraine needed Obama to do in 2014. ...
Well, Obama was pretty well tight down, with a "Njet" congress of the opposite political spectrum. Biden played that card very well.
Originally Posted by fdr
There's a bridge over the straights at Kerch that has a span that asks to be dropped.....
This has surprised me very much. Maybe there are smarter people here, who know the answer for that softy.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 21:42
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
This has surprised me very much. Maybe there are smarter people here, who know the answer for that softy.
Has been much discussed online - apparently the bridge is very heavily defended.

Still, would be a larf if they could..
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 21:48
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
This has surprised me very much. Maybe there are smarter people here, who know the answer for that softy.
One would imagine that bridge has the finest protection rubles can buy...
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 22:04
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
Yep, or so to say, Putin just did take the wrong cross road when getting in power. Forgetting, that when creating an environment where other countries want to join your pack (as the EU did), you get to a much better and stronger together, then, when you force the parties to join (with sometime extreme violence). But, alas, he did come from the KGB with a crumpled mindset accordingly.

Well, Obama was pretty well tight down, with a "Njet" congress of the opposite political spectrum. Biden played that card very well.

This has surprised me very much. Maybe there are smarter people here, who know the answer for that softy.
Oh if Ukraine could pull it off they would. However one little thing was seems to have missed out east is the Oskol reservoir dam. Ukrainians blew a hole in it a couple of weeks back and its flooded the Seversky Donets River around the south of Izyum.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 22:37
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Originally Posted by Zombywoof
One would imagine that bridge has the finest protection rubles can buy...
Any OR guru would tell you a bridge can be closed without dropping the span.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 23:11
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Maybe so, but this is half the problem, people keep saying it will take months to learn how to operate xyz equipment, but if people had taken it seriously and started to train them when the war did, then they would now be coming on stream, they really need to be teaching them now, because we have no idea how long this war will last. Putting it off by repeating the, “it will take xyz time” is simply kicking the can down the road. At some point they will need to train them if they are to survive.
It takes years to get a new bit of kit into service from acceptance trials to initial operational capability at the best of times. As far as we know, there may be Ukrainians who can fly and maintain fast jets are doing rapid conversion courses on something like the F-16 at some hidden location right now, but it will still take a lot of time to do it.

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Old 17th Apr 2022, 23:27
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FDR,
PS: My idea of a target asking to be taken out -

There's a bridge over the straights at Kerch that has a span that asks to be dropped, and the great thing is, it's on Ukrainian territory if you disregard the unlawful annexation of Crimea by Pukin. Gonna take a package of Hrim-2's, but eminently worthy of the effort. Add some captors outside of Novorossiysk... make a picnic of it. Pukin seems to be mighty sensitive for a bully when his nose hairs get yanked, "eyes well up 'n everythang".
And what would be the concrete military advantage to 'dropping a span;'? Or are you one of those who asks for a target and seeks reasons after? Dropping a bridge span is not as easy as it first seem, and if you are attacking it just because it is a target asking to be taken out, and would be spectacular you are contravening the laws of armed conflict.
,
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 23:33
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Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD
It takes years to get a new bit of kit into service from acceptance trials to initial operational capability at the best of times. As far as we know, there may be Ukrainians who can fly and maintain fast jets are doing rapid conversion courses on something like the F-16 at some hidden location right now, but it will still take a lot of time to do it.
I think you would shortcut a lot of that crap in wartime, most engineering type courses I did were about 2 months.
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 23:46
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Any OR guru would tell you a bridge can be closed without dropping the span.
And I'll bet those dumb Russkis haven't thought of that...
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Old 17th Apr 2022, 23:59
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I have a cunning plan, and it involves my own invention, a fiendishly clever bouncing bomb…
However.

There is really no need for the invaders to rely on a vulnerable old bridge any more. They’ve finally got their hands on the solid land connection.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 00:01
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Originally Posted by cynicalint
FDR,


And what would be the concrete military advantage to 'dropping a span;'? Or are you one of those who asks for a target and seeks reasons after? Dropping a bridge span is not as easy as it first seem, and if you are attacking it just because it is a target asking to be taken out, and would be spectacular you are contravening the laws of armed conflict.
,
Paul Doumer bridge bombing. One day in a long war. Good read. 1972 in Linebacker 1 I believe. Mainjafad, A good cruise missile (alas not from the east)
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 00:03
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
I have a cunning plan, and it involves my own invention, a fiendishly clever bouncing bomb…
However.

There is really no need for the invaders to rely on a vulnerable old bridge any more. They’ve finally got their hands on the solid land connection.
They have. Bar a bunch of Brexit nutter UKR boys will fight .
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 00:15
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Originally Posted by Cat Techie
Paul Doumer bridge bombing. One day in a long war. Good read. 1972 in Linebacker 1 I believe. Mainjafad, A good cruise missile (alas not from the east)
Thanks Cat, I'll look out for that.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 01:50
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 02:26
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Originally Posted by Zombywoof
One would imagine that bridge has the finest protection rubles can buy...
Yeah, you would think, the same that you would think that Pukin's forces would have not had rotten tyres on their BTR's etc... There is a lot of good intel that is available that suggests that the Russian preparation for this "Speshul Militery Operashun", planned by a special needs Preszid'nt has less than optimal competency.

It is apparent that the main preparation by the Russian military was getting more 9x 19 Marakov and zip ties so they can execute civilians. Beyond that, the evidence is that the Russian military reflects the corruption of their president. Which is good news.

Last edited by fdr; 18th Apr 2022 at 07:14.
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