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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Jun 2022, 10:19
  #6401 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav View Post
Isnít that hard to say?
Whatís an ďaverage RussianĒ?





[No political slant intended.]
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 10:36
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Walking along a ridge line

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23donbas&f=live
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 10:54
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They are in need of a couple of Saxon starter motors.

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Old 19th Jun 2022, 11:00
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GN :-
Isn’t that hard to say? What’s an “average Russian”?
Exactly! You could have written a similar piece about the Germans in WWII, but we now know that there were many opposed to the regime, some actively so. I remember Christabel Bielenberg being interviewed in the TV series The World at War (I'm that old!). In it she described her nervousness while waiting to be interviewed (at her own request!) in a corridor of the Gestapo Berlin HQ in Prinz Albert Strasse. Further down the corridor a young female employee finished typing, whipped the paper from the machine, and slammed it down with a pen in front of a nervously waiting much older man. He began to read it, only for her to lean across the desk and slap him firmly across the face. "Swine! I told you to sign it, not to read it!", she screamed. At this point Bielenberg was called forward for her interview. It was the outrage she felt having witnessed this telling scene that gave her the confidence to demand her husband's immediate release into her charge, or there would be very severe consequences for her interviewer from very high places. She succeeded!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christabel_Bielenberg

Most people of course keep their heads down and try not to give cause to informers to betray them. That doesn't mean they approve of the regime, let alone support it. You can be a proud German, Russian, whatever, without necessarily being proud of what is being done in your name by those in power. The very brave ones go around causing electrical fires. The great majority just get by.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 12:00
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Would have to be whats the point of having a radar that 270 degrees is blocked by the superstructure of the ship.
The Random is taken down for river transport to allow it to pass under bridges.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 12:06
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav View Post
Isnít that hard to say?
Whatís an ďaverage RussianĒ?
it's an opinion from a Russian about Russians. Dont read it, then you wont have to know.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:25
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Originally Posted by peter we View Post
The Random is taken down for river transport to allow it to pass under bridges.
The perils of spool chicks.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:25
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The man on the Omsk omnibus?
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:30
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Things getting interesting around Kherson.

Clashes going on in Znamenka, 11 km away from Kherson City, the last stronghold of Russians on the road to Kherson City.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:37
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Another General along with his entire staff bites the dust.

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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:48
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I presume this means air policing, German and other SAM already having been deployed..

It is being suggested that reason is that, once an agreement is signed, the Slovakian Mig-29s can then, finally, be transferred to UkraineÖ..

Slovak Minister of Defence Jaroslav Naď has asked the Czech Republic for assistance in temporarily defending the country's airspace He said this during a visit to his Czech counterpart Jana ČernochovŠ.

According to Naď, in addition to the Czechs, Polish forces will also be involved in the defence. Chernokhova replied that negotiations on the terms of this assistance were underway.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 13:57
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Things getting interesting around Kherson.



Clashes going on in Znamenka, 11 km away from Kherson City, the last stronghold of Russians on the road to Kherson City.

I believe the Ukrainians have already asked the population to pull out of Kherson to permit operations and reduce casualties, also the Russians appear to be counter attacking at Kharkiv.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 14:08
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More on the Russian general and his staff.

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Old 19th Jun 2022, 14:21
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I believe the Ukrainians have already asked the population to pull out of Kherson to permit operations and reduce casualties, also the Russians appear to be counter attacking at Kharkiv.
Nutty , they can ask what they want - my ex is still stuck in Kherson , there is not any easy getting out, really not. You can be sure that things are getting worse and worse in that city from day to day. She took a turn working as a bank cashier to get more forward in the queue for cash ( or it takes a few days!! - she is a project manager for industrial facility), there are almost no medicines other than basic, food is super expensive. and this is 'liberated' region?
"we stopped to run n hide in the bushes at nights as rus shot some ppls who broke curfew"
"i was absolutely scared when their air defense system shooted from next my house - so loud explosions - balkonies shacked"
"they allow to move only to the crimea and then to the rus territory "

I see only a long a bloody fight there - rus will not give it up easy , though it can relieve pressure on other fronts.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 15:11
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British troops must be ready to fight in Europe again says new head of British Army.

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Old 19th Jun 2022, 15:14
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Originally Posted by Usertim View Post
Nutty , they can ask what they want - my ex is still stuck in Kherson , there is not any easy getting out, really not. You can be sure that things are getting worse and worse in that city from day to day. She took a turn working as a bank cashier to get more forward in the queue for cash ( or it takes a few days!! - she is a project manager for industrial facility), there are almost no medicines other than basic, food is super expensive. and this is 'liberated' region?
"we stopped to run n hide in the bushes at nights as rus shot some ppls who broke curfew"
"i was absolutely scared when their air defense system shooted from next my house - so loud explosions - balkonies shacked"
"they allow to move only to the crimea and then to the rus territory "

I see only a long a bloody fight there - rus will not give it up easy , though it can relieve pressure on other fronts.
Would dropping the bridge help thus trapping those Russians in the city and cutting off reinforcements.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 16:37
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Would dropping the bridge help thus trapping those Russians in the city and cutting off reinforcements.
I think the kerch bridge is impossible with current tech, and difficult with state of art nato tech. Check out the grim reapers tube channel for some simulated missions, Crimea has like x3 min sa 400 sites.

The antonoviski bridge, well that might help pin rus forces, only way back to rus land is then via Nova Karkova. ( there is a rail bridge NE of kerson too but not sure that is still up).
It is a huge infrastructure hit for Ukraine to blow antonovski, but I can see it has short to medium term advantages.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 17:03
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I am not talking about that bridge but the Antonovskiy Bridge Which is the only one connecting Kherson city to the south.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 17:12
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yes , that is why i mentioned both, right now to blow that bridge would mess rus up, but in 3 months it might mess Ukraine up more, a hard question
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 23:05
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I am not talking about that bridge but the Antonovskiy Bridge Which is the only one connecting Kherson city to the south.
[includes military and aviation content!]

Blowing the Antonovskiy Bridge would cause an immediate major headache for RF in Kherson and all of the RF forces on the west side of the Dnipro would be at risk of being cut off from MSR. The remaining, single land access point would be open to access control with arty and that would be starting to look. a bit like the perils of Paulus a bit earlier and a bit further to the east. Two situations could trigger that as a play IMHO:
  • if Belorus tries to "assist" RF by crossing the border, then it limits the capability in the South for the RF and could relieve UF manpower and logistics slightly to whack-a-mole Lukashenko. There is an outside chance that Lukashenko may have a more competent and better-armed force complement than RF turned up with at the party, the reasons why are best explained in the following link by Perun.
  • The second trigger for blowing the bridge could be any major envelopment of the UF in the east, which again actually looks unlikely in all reality unless Count Vlad adds general mobilization to the joys of living the Stalinist dream.

As far as Kerch bridge goes, yes, there is a lot of SAM defense around the peninsula, so the solution needs a bit of creativity, and that is indeed quite possible within the existing equipment and capabilities that the Ukrainians have at hand right now, by adding just a little bit of payback, Sun Tzu Style. Taking out the Kerch bridge is well past due date; anything that interdicts RF MSR is worth the effort. Under international law, the west part of that bridge is sovereign Ukraine territory, as is Crimea, irrespective of Vlads rantings.

The following is the latest in the analysis by a dude in AUS who conducts in-depth analysis that is worth the time over a beer or coffee. It has a part at 34:30 related to the shootdown of MI17 which is news to me, but ties in some loose ends on that murderous act by the Russian forces, directly or indirectly. Perun's other presentations on economics and logistics continue to be relevant. As his analysis is pretty damning, he uses evidence of direct public statements by the side that is being examined.


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