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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 6th Apr 2022, 01:30
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Interesting message coming out of Belarus

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Old 6th Apr 2022, 05:45
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Finland to submit a NATO membership proposal to their Government mid April.
This is incorrect. Government hands out a statement of current security situation to the parliament (this is estimated mid April). The parliament then handles the issue and sends its recommendations back to the government. Then, based on this process, the government makes a recommendation to join or not to the president of Finland who makes the decision of sending/not sending the request to join NATO.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 05:47
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It would be interesting to see (Nutty?) more information on what Russia is having to do to reinforce Ukraine by withdrawing assets from other disputed borders. A few weeks ago there was a post from a asian blogger indicating Russian naval vessels with moving out to support the Ukraine conflict. https://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/69335

If the desire to defeat Ukraine led to a net loss in territory that might yet wipe that smirk off Putin's face. A few weeks ago I saw a youtube lecture from the Oxford Union suggesting that ultimately this conflict will lead to Russia becoming a (resource supplying) satelite of China.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 06:40
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In response to the video whereby they shot a Russian Vechicle with that sort of laptop that had the square sight with a + in the middle of it.

This video shows the whole system



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Old 6th Apr 2022, 08:05
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"A few weeks ago I saw a youtube lecture from the Oxford Union suggesting that ultimately this conflict will lead to Russia becoming a (resource supplying) satellite of China."

Before the start of the War the Economist pointe doubt that Russia would become increasingly reliant on China - and they would be the minor partner - which doesn't fit well with Putin's world view....... eventually Xi wil be pulling the strings
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 08:06
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With respect, this is not a "local problem" and the error in thinking that it could be kept as such, belongs to the lunatic in the Kremlin. The time for crisis management is over when the world is being threatened with Nukes.
At this stage no one is going to capitulate or negotiate in good faith therefore trust does not exist and things must be taken at first value. If the lids are going to open make sure that yours are the first.

IG
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 08:30
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
With respect, this is not a "local problem". If the lids are going to open make sure that yours are the first.

IG
You are astonishingly bellicose - thank goodness not in a position of power. Contrary to your opinion this is stiil a local problem, but obviously with the potential to become a lot worse, which your options would guarantee. I think the current actions are mostly right as they are hurting Russia badly, but don't give Putin any real excuse to expand his war. The next steps are banning Russian oil and gas imports, but given the price rises hitting all populations for all goods, it's not certain that politicians - particularly in Germany - are willing to take that step.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 08:42
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It will happen anyway. If Germany is not cutting it Russia will cut it more sooner than later. Time to move on to energy not coming from Russia.
Will it hit the economy? Yes very much. But Russia will be hit even worse.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 09:07
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Reports that possibly an S-125 shot down the SU 35, see

https://eurasiantimes.com/after-usaf...y-shoots-down/

Recently, a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 which is the most powerful jet in the Russian inventory was shot down by Ukrainian missiles while it was conducting SEAD operations. This was the first-ever loss of the Su-35E Flanker that entered combat service in 2016 and is believed to be the best dogfighter in the Russian Air Force.

Experts confirmed that the Russian Su-35 aircraft was flying to eliminate an air defense system based on the remains found on the battlefield. The Russian Kh-31 anti-radiation missile was clearly visible in the footage.

Now, social media is abuzz with reports that the system responsible for causing this massive casualty on the Russian Air Force was none other than the Soviet-origin S-125 air defense system, which is remembered for its assault against American fighter jets, decades ago. The EurAsian Times has not been able to verify this independently.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 09:11
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I totally agree, any country involved in suspected war crimes should lose their right to veto or the system should be changed to a majority decision.
I would have thought that would include all the permanent 5 members of the Security Council and a fair few of the rest. As to the majority decision, be careful what you wish for.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:16
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
It will happen anyway. If Germany is not cutting it Russia will cut it more sooner than later. Time to move on to energy not coming from Russia.
Will it hit the economy? Yes very much. But Russia will be hit even worse.
Russia has been careful to keep all its contractual obligations and Germany has been careful to try to do likewise. I've seen no evidence that Russia wants to cut off Europe's gas lines, but they do want to get paid as well.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:17
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A good call but the problem is that they should be off the Security Council too, but the UN charter makes no provision for that, so they can VETO anything they don't like. It's a farce.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:31
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Poland purchases 250 Abrams

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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:49
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Originally Posted by Beamr
.......The parliament then handles the issue and sends its recommendations back to the government. Then, based on this process, the government makes a recommendation to join or not to the president of Finland who makes the decision of sending/not sending the request to join NATO.
Does that mean that, if the Finnish Govt wants to join NATO, their president could veto the idea? Odd..
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:53
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
A good call but the problem is that they should be off the Security Council too, but the UN charter makes no provision for that, so they can VETO anything they don't like. It's a farce.
Why do people keep going on and on about the UN, as if it has any relevance or influence in this conflict? The votes are only useful to determine which states support Russia - helpful when it comes to investment decisions, where to holiday etc.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 10:55
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Poland purchases 250 Abrams
Does this mean whatever they are equipped with now is going to be transported over the border?
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 11:09
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Previous BBC interview

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Old 6th Apr 2022, 11:12
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Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
Does that mean that, if the Finnish Govt wants to join NATO, their president could veto the idea? Odd..
a priori he could. But if both the parliament and government decides in favour of joining NATO, it would be highly unlikely that the president would then refuse to sign the document.

The reason for the process is that the president is the highest authority in foreign policy, and joining or not joining a military alliance is a very strong foreign policy statement. Therefore his name needs to be in the application.
But the decision to apply for the membership needs to come from the parliament, namely the majority of parliament needs to support the membership. Then it goes to the government which then presents it to the president, which makes decisions in co-operation with the government.

Parliamentary democracy at its finest.
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 11:12
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Janes Analysis of the war
01 April 2022

Janes Analysis: Ukraine Conflict

Janes delivers persistent monitoring of Russian troop and equipment sightings that connects the unit from the ORBAT, location, source data, exercise and mission (where relevant known), equipment with associated numbers, vessel ID, tail numbers, ground vehicle markings and estimated sighting date. Below are a series of recent analysis pieces focusing on Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine, that leverage the data collected, structured, verified and interconnected by Janes to enable a more detailed assessment of Russian military force movements and capabilities.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/n...ukraine-crisis
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Old 6th Apr 2022, 11:23
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Does this mean whatever they are equipped with now is going to be transported over the border?
Wiki says the Abrams were ordered in 2021 and are due deliver in 2025 so perhaps not...
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