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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 4th Apr 2022, 22:02
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
A picture that conveys a thousand unspoken words.

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk/st...75889588293639
This is yet another image that makes me ashamed of our UK Government. Our PM is a self-serving liar with no morals whatsoever. His entire purpose in life is self promotion and he will happily jump on whatever passing bandwagon furthers his interests.

Boris is a liar.

Zelensky represents everything good in a leader - honesty, integrity and strength.

Boris is a stain on the history of the UK and for the love of God he must go immediately. His entitled and ignorant view is killing the UK.

Ukraine are the moral leaders of the world right now, and rightly so.




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Old 4th Apr 2022, 22:04
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Old 4th Apr 2022, 22:06
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Old 4th Apr 2022, 22:17
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Old 4th Apr 2022, 23:27
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Interesting observation by Keir Giles from Chatham House on the telly here last night r/e Bucha etc.
He said that this is the way Russia has waged war for centuries.
Medieval savagery and extreme violence, brutality designed to deter, demoralise.
Which, combined with the art of strategic and tactical lying, seems to explain what we are seeing.
No less distressing and barbaric - but also underlines how we are naive to think we can hope to engage with Russia as an actor that respects international norms and conventions.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-deters-russia
They understand only one thing: force.

‘Impervious to logic of reason [Russia] is highly sensitive to logic of force. For this reason it can easily withdraw – and usually does when strong resistance is encountered at any point. Thus, if the adversary has sufficient force and makes clear his readiness to use it, he rarely has to do so.’
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 00:58
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 01:36
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If we think Bucha is dreadful, Mariupol is likely to be an order of magnitude more so.
When thinking of the horrors Ukraine has been through - am reminded of Holomodor and the desperate measures the starving had to go to then.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 02:38
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Originally Posted by tartare
If we think Bucha is dreadful, Mariupol is likely to be an order of magnitude more so.
When thinking of the horrors Ukraine has been through - am reminded of Holomodor and the desperate measures the starving had to go to then.
I recall several days ago when we debated the term “genocide” and whether it truly defined what Russia was doing early in the invasion. At the time I didn’t think so, based on what news we had, awful as it was. But, regretfully, I must say I was wrong. What Russia has done, now revealed incrementally as Russian forces redeploy, from Putin down throughout the leadership of the invading forces is unequivocally a crime against humanity, genocide, it you will. They will certainly burn in hell but I hope that somehow we can give them a taste of that eternal inferno before they take their last earthly breath.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 02:56
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Some call what China is doing to the Uyghurs In Xinjiang ‘genocide’, but I think what we are seeing in Mariupol etc. more closely fits the original definition.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 03:15
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Some call what China is doing to the Uyghurs In Xinjiang ‘genocide’, but I think what we are seeing in Mariupol etc. more closely fits the original definition.
As far as I’m concerned, Putin’s Regime and the Chinese Communists may share the same cell block on death row. One’s guilt does not excuse or diminish the other’s.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 03:27
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History rhymes.
If you haven't seen this - I'd highly recommend it.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 05:30
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Here's what is the next pivotal point in the war, Russian offensive towards Slovyansk. I trust the Ukrainian troops have been supplied with all the best kits and intelligence there is in more than sufficient quantities.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-april-4
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 06:14
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The same institute has some interesting graphic comparing timelines of Russian propaganda versus the US compared to Russia's actions.
US Russia timeline
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 07:26
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I presume with the Russians concentrating to the east our aviation reconnaissance assets become less effective being significantly further from the battlefield. Flying a Rivet / Airseeker etc over the Black Sea would be significantly more dangererous than within a friendly border.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 09:34
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Originally Posted by ROC man
I presume with the Russians concentrating to the east our aviation reconnaissance assets become less effective being significantly further from the battlefield. Flying a Rivet / Airseeker etc over the Black Sea would be significantly more dangererous than within a friendly border.
I suspect most of this work is being done with satellites.

I'm still bemused why NATO effectively ceded the Black Sea. It would have been very helpful to have some naval assets in the area to provide additional coverage.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 09:43
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I suspect most of this work is being done with satellites.

I'm still bemused why NATO effectively ceded the Black Sea. It would have been very helpful to have some naval assets in the area to provide additional coverage.
Err... Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO countries with coast on Black sea. To my understanding they are still there.

Also, Global hawks been there circling the black sea for months now.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 09:53
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Sweden has been patrolling the Polish eastern border for the past few days, this morning Italy has taken Romania's eastern border. Both operating Gulfstream a/c at 40,000 ft or more. Presumably these are electronic sniffers.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 10:01
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Err... Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO countries with coast on Black sea. To my understanding they are still there.
Sorry, I meant the US and UK. I'm not sure these other countries will have anything like the eavesdropping capabilities of USN/RN vessels.
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 10:08
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Sorry, I meant the US and UK. I'm not sure these other countries will have anything like the eavesdropping capabilities of USN/RN vessels.
I can't make the comparison as I know nothing of those, but the Turkish navy has some capabilities:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...-mediterranean
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Old 5th Apr 2022, 10:15
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I can't make the comparison as I know nothing of those, but the Turkish navy has some capabilities:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...-mediterranean
Possibly, but I doubt they'd be so willing to give the Ukrainians access to their intel given their apparent desire sit between the warring parties and broker the peace.
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