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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:34
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It's looking like we all may end up in the sh*t, papermills in the West are shutting down production due to the gas price making it uneconomical to make toilet paper...

https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/...-energy-crisis
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:44
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Another one...


IG
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:49
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
War is hell. ~WT Sherman~
Previous posts in this thread have noted the limited stockpiles of PGM in Russia which suggests that in the main unguided bombs were dropped.
(whoa, Aviation Content!)
Was this terror bombing (which given Vlad's attitudes, is quite possible) or was this the old WW II "drop thirty bombs to hope one hits one's target" style of aerial attack?
Or a bit of both?
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:50
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The Guardian is reporting Ukraine claims of a false flag operation by Russia against Belarus.

'Ukraine accuses Russia of firing at Belarusian village from Ukrainian air space

Ukraine has accused Russian aircraft of firing at a Belarusian settlement near the border from Ukrainian air space in an attempt to drag Belarus into the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian air force said that at 2.30pm local time (12.30pm GMT), the state border service received information that Russian aircraft had taken off from an airfield in Belarus, crossed into Ukrainian air space and then fired at Kopani, a village in Belarus, reports Reuters.

“This is a PROVOCATION! The goal is to involve the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the war with Ukraine!,” Ukraine’s Air Force Command said in an online statement.

The Ukrainian military said that two other Belarusian settlements were also targeted in the operation.

“We officially declare: the Ukrainian military has not planned and does not plan to take any aggressive action against the Republic of Belarus,” the security service said.'
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:58
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I saw an interview earlier today, probably on the BBC, of a Ukrainian politician in/from Mariupol who said the Russians are sending in aircraft singly but when one clears the next one arrives. Which suggests to me the missions are being planned assuming no SAM or AAA threat.

Lonewolf - I think terror bombing, no specific target except the inhabitants' mental state.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 15:00
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
My hope is that a back-channel is underway between the US and China in the event of Russian to coordinate a response in the event of Russia using even a small-scale nuke, to force them to back down 'or else' - the 'or else' being a joint military effort to nullify Russia's nuclear threat.
1. I hope, you are aware what impact a 'small-scale' Nuke on e.g. London would have!?
2. I can't see China doing any military act against Russia in this conflict. No way.
3. Nullify the Nuclear Threat??? Heard about SSBN?
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 15:34
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Originally Posted by SLXOwft
I saw an interview earlier today, probably on the BBC, of a Ukrainian politician in/from Mariupol who said the Russians are sending in aircraft singly but when one clears the next one arrives. Which suggests to me the missions are being planned assuming no SAM or AAA threat.
I wonder what the ARM/Jamming/ELINT picture looks like. No idea, and I am not sure how one would find that out, but airborne Anti Radiation Missiles and various jamming/spoofing might render Ukraine Air Defense assets less effective.
(What, military aviation content?)
Originally Posted by SLXOwft
Lonewolf - I think terror bombing, no specific target except the inhabitants' mental state.
Since I don't think Vlad and his head shed care as much about collateral damage as we in the West do, deliberate terror bombing as a method is likely.
It may also be a result of an RoE that goes something like this: "hit the target, collateral damage is not a consideration, don't worry about it"
(Which is almost a case of "The RoE is that there is no RoE, other than don't blow up a bridge and don't blow up (important infrastructure)")
Or both.
I am reminded of the "We had to destroy the village to save it" themes coming out of Viet Nam.
Spoiler
 


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Old 11th Mar 2022, 15:44
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Perhaps someone could persuade Putin to visit the front line to see what the problem is

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 15:56
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Originally Posted by WB627
Perhaps someone could persuade Putin to visit the front line to see what the problem is
I suppose the problems the Russians are having is there are no windows left of sufficent height for these guys to accidentally fall out of in the Ukraine as most have been blown out..
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 16:36
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Talking of belief, a lot of people here placing their faith in the Russian people to sort this mess out. Good luck with that.

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 16:42
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I wonder what the ARM/Jamming/ELINT picture looks like. No idea, and I am not sure how one would find that out, but airborne Anti Radiation Missiles and various jamming/spoofing might render Ukraine Air Defense assets less effective.
I read some analysis which noted that the Russians had deployed barely any of their much-vaunted EW assets. Who knows, maybe they're holding it back for something (you never know..), or maybe another example of poor planning, or maybe it would interfere with all those crappy Radioshack walkie-talkies their troops appear to be using? We can only but speculate.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 17:26
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Russian activists burn down recruitment offices.


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Old 11th Mar 2022, 17:32
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 17:39
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In case anyone missed this 😝

Getting resourceful these agriculturists.
Handy for scaring the crows !

El G.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 17:48
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
It will be interesting to see how this plays out if Russian equipment losses do continue apace. So far there's been no real indication that other units from his military will be committed, just reports of Syrian and Wagner mercenaries and the "will-they-won't-they?" Belarussian forces. Maybe he's holding back in fear of trouble at home or in the various regions where he has his forces committed?

The flip-side is, I doubt the kit the Ukrainians have captured will make up their losses, let alone give them the means to mount a credible counter-offensive.

This latter point is vexing me somewhat - despite their incredible efforts, I can't see a way Ukrainians will be in a position to kick the Russians out of their country any time soon, unless NATO really opened the taps with military aid. And how then would Vlad react, faced with an even more ignominious defeat?
If the numbers fighting are approximately equal, i don't think there is any chance of driving the Russians out i The very best hope (imo ) is they hold them to a stalemate, most likely ending in negotiations, most likely ending with Ukraine declaring itself neutral and Russia retaining its gains on the Sea of Azov.. Reparations would be a hideously thorny issue;
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 18:13
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Tu-141 drone crashes in Croatia.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...hed-in-croatia

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 18:27
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I've read this thread (like many) and appreciated the situational awareness it has given. I grew up as a child in the 70/80's and this is bringing back really frightening thoughts I had as a kid about nuclear war. As a 50 something I'm struggling to reassure my family that everything will be alright, I'm struggling to see a good way out of where 'we' at are. I'm lucky enough to have 20 odd personnel under my command and if I'm this worried I dread to think how they must be, bravado only gets you so far. I can now empathise with those who lived through the Cuban missile crisis, and hope we come out the other side like they did.
​​​
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 18:49
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Gas and bio attacks seem inevitable in Ukraine. Anyone know if we are sending them gas masks?
Gas is terrible but easily (well, not that easily) countered with the right equipment,
They say Putin is the next Hitler but Hitler, who experienced gas in the trenches, never used it in anger because of the fear the enemy may reply in kind. They did of course use it in gas chambers.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 18:57
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Fascinating interview on the Mark Austin hour on Sky this evening with a military analyst based in Moscow. He was highly critical of the Russian campaign, saying that they now had no reserve forces to draw upon hence them rooting around for volunteers from Syria etc. Mobilisation is not an option apparently, given the message this would send to the Russian people that the campaign was not going to plan. His assessment was that it could end in defeat for Russia.

Something to cheer you all up for the weekend 🙂
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 19:00
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I read some analysis which noted that the Russians had deployed barely any of their much-vaunted EW assets. Who knows, maybe they're holding it back for something (you never know..), or maybe another example of poor planning, or maybe it would interfere with all those crappy Radioshack walkie-talkies their troops appear to be using? We can only but speculate.
i

I’ve seen IED jammers as in the link below but not much more

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarR...m_cied_system/
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