Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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This is the range of the rockets being sent, but of course they too would be within range.
Its probably been mentioned before, but does Ukraine have the ability to ID targets so far into Russian occupied territories? Or are they going to rely on sneaky heads-up from western recce aircraft/satellites etc? Interesting if most of their targets turn out to be in Kherson Oblast...
I do, have you seen the request for another 18 billion from the EU to cut off the oil supplies, it’s trying to blackmail the EU who should return the favour.
UK requesting to send US supplied rocket systems to Ukraine
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00036328
UK requesting to send US supplied rocket systems to Ukraine
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00036328
However, what will be interesting will be the progression of Serbia's EU candidacy in the near future. Serbia has flatly refused to apply any sanctions on Russia although U.VdL has requested that Serbia adhere to EU policy. If anybody's looking for a Putin fanboy in Europe, look no further than Aleksandar Vučić.
Meanwhile the leaders of the other landlocked Countries in the EU (Slovakia, Czechia & Austria) must all be quietly grateful to Orbán for his stance on the latest round of sanctions.
Interesting times.
Last edited by Expatrick; 2nd Jun 2022 at 12:42.
He has also stopped collecting donations - if challenged as to where the money has gone...instant blocking.
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Of course it is only a game , but at least for me it gave a good indication of what forces russia has in the area to defend such an attack.
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Is UK MOD checking out whether supplied rockets will reach Snake Island. https://www.qinetiq.com/en/aberporth...n-for-mariners (click on weekly programme).
Last edited by papa_sierra; 2nd Jun 2022 at 13:21. Reason: Non opening attachment
Only half a speed-brake
It's his right to voice unreasonable demands.
It's the right of citizens of sovering Hungary to elect their leaders and take their inventory.
Punishing someone for having a different opinon opens a path with one ending only. Disregarding the whole country for being of inadequate thinking and not knowing who is the correct figure to elect ---- - - ---- -- - - - - leads to de-nazifying with a special operation.
The whole madness in UKR was made possible because of German dependency on Russian energy sources. Well crafted over the last 20 years, step by step, by shortsightedness and Russian GRU money channels, or Gazprom - same pocket. Despite the loud outcries from Visegrad 4. Forced into common EU electric market, those countries are forced to match electricity price which German customer is ready to pay. Not nice with 1:3 GHP per capita disparity.
Now, the gas and crude oil contracts, were they long term by any chance before the war? Pointing out here the difference between the contracted supply price and the market quote gets pocketed by the wholesalers, even these days. Those would be certain Russian-EU joint ventures.
Orban playing a naughty brat? Cry me a river, the cash is going elsewhere.
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Whole Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas not only Germany, saw the share of Russia imports to Germany for example is 35% in total. I am sure there are issues involved supplying large quantities of oil and gas via sea now instead, so it's not hard to see why the old arrangement made some sense at least before VP started to reestablish the USSR 2.0...
https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-...ssian-supply-2
https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-...ssian-supply-2
Last edited by Clop_Clop; 2nd Jun 2022 at 15:07. Reason: edit out bad examples.
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Punishing someone for having a different opinon opens a path with one ending only. Disregarding the whole country for being of inadequate thinking and not knowing who is the correct figure to elect ---- - - ---- -- - - - - leads to de-nazifying with a special operation.
The whole madness in UKR was made possible because of German dependency on Russian energy sources. Well crafted over the last 20 years, step by step, by shortsightedness and Russian GRU money channels, or Gazprom - same pocket. Despite the loud outcries from Visegrad 4. Forced into common EU electric market, those countries are forced to match electricity price which German customer is ready to pay. Not nice with 1:3 GHP per capita disparity.
Now, the gas and crude oil contracts, were they long term by any chance before the war? Pointing out here the difference between the contracted supply price and the market quote gets pocketed by the wholesalers, even these days. Those would be certain Russian-EU joint ventures.
Now, the gas and crude oil contracts, were they long term by any chance before the war? Pointing out here the difference between the contracted supply price and the market quote gets pocketed by the wholesalers, even these days. Those would be certain Russian-EU joint ventures.
There's plenty of crying in Ukraine.
Gas dependency goes both ways. Russia can´t just turn on and off its gas wells with the flip of a switch. If Russia decides to stop supplying gas to Europe completely, wells have to be shut down and secured. Not that simple. Same for reopening. The question is who gets hurt more. I reckon, we will find out this coming winter.
Only half a speed-brake
Missed my point and the issue I had with that one Nutty's remark, Mike. Given the tsunami of grief, don't mind despite this low punch.
Russia did not attack UKR bringing mayhem and destruction because some regional leader refused to sanction them, but because they believed it was their right to do so and decide what the other country should be like. Not to their taste in the end, so they went and punished them.
Calling upon some 'super-entity' to punish a country is the same logic we see unfolding. Russia is a self-proclaimed super-entity just as the EU is, now under the stellar leadership of Leyen, Timmermans and Borell et al. (lower ranks nicely decorated from all points of compass: Szajer, Ransdorf)
The Austrian have issues with Czechs, Czech with Polish, Polish with Ukrainian (pre-war), Slovak with Magyar and Magyar with Romanians... or the other way around. Way of life, the proclaimed unity always had and will have cracks.
Even if the joint action of EU gets blocked because of actually observing the rules this time (the Irish referendum, anyone?) all the illustrious leaders are free to launch the embargo from their own countries at will.
Except they did not, and it awfully seems they are playing Orban figure as an excuse why they couldn't. Nope, Germany and Italy cutting themselves from RU supplies would be a hit large enough, no need to wait and single out the family's unwanted bastard for not proceeding with the plan.
Rewind a bit and see the SWIFT sanctions and how they started (not).
BTW most EU Countries' leaders are elected with around 35% count. No matter, I am not advocating for Orban or approving of his antics. I am somewhat shocked at the suggestion one country is invited to punish another.
No objections on this one, whatsoever.
Russia did not attack UKR bringing mayhem and destruction because some regional leader refused to sanction them, but because they believed it was their right to do so and decide what the other country should be like. Not to their taste in the end, so they went and punished them.
Calling upon some 'super-entity' to punish a country is the same logic we see unfolding. Russia is a self-proclaimed super-entity just as the EU is, now under the stellar leadership of Leyen, Timmermans and Borell et al. (lower ranks nicely decorated from all points of compass: Szajer, Ransdorf)
The Austrian have issues with Czechs, Czech with Polish, Polish with Ukrainian (pre-war), Slovak with Magyar and Magyar with Romanians... or the other way around. Way of life, the proclaimed unity always had and will have cracks.
Even if the joint action of EU gets blocked because of actually observing the rules this time (the Irish referendum, anyone?) all the illustrious leaders are free to launch the embargo from their own countries at will.
Except they did not, and it awfully seems they are playing Orban figure as an excuse why they couldn't. Nope, Germany and Italy cutting themselves from RU supplies would be a hit large enough, no need to wait and single out the family's unwanted bastard for not proceeding with the plan.
Rewind a bit and see the SWIFT sanctions and how they started (not).
BTW most EU Countries' leaders are elected with around 35% count. No matter, I am not advocating for Orban or approving of his antics. I am somewhat shocked at the suggestion one country is invited to punish another.
But the EU has bent over backwards to address Orban's concerns and get the latest sanctions package signed. And when finally everyone thought it was a done deal, Orban comes with: "But, but, but, we can't sanction Patriarch Kirill!". This is looking less and less like looking after Hungary's interests,
Gas dependency goes both ways. Russia can´t just turn on and off its gas wells with the flip of a switch. If Russia decides to stop supplying gas to Europe completely, wells have to be shut down and secured. Not that simple. Same for reopening. The question is who gets hurt more. I reckon, we will find out this coming winter.
If the Economist article Uncle Fred provided (a page or so up from here) is on target, the pain will begin this autumn as food supplies get tight. Food insecurity tends to have political ripple effects in any country, and a lot of countries are looking at the hold up of Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments with growing concern.
OK, pet peeve, sorry to introduce this: I'd like to see the American 'ethanol in the gas' mania reduced considerably, and have for a long time.
I am not sure if product for this year can be diverted to food versus fuel buyers, but it might take a little bit of pressure off of the food crunch if more of the corn went to food and not ethanol production. However, those contracts are probably long term in nature and may not be as fungible/liquid as one might hope such that it allows a shift in end usage.
(Do not know enough about that aspect of commodity economics to offer any further support for my idea, that's going to take a lot of research).
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
I’ll just point out that,the moment Poland is happy, Ukraine can totally cut off Hungary’s pipeline deliveries anyway - terrible how Russia missiles hit those pumping stations like that….
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Here’s re the 18 billion
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/
UPDATE sanctions now passed as Hungary votes yes
https://hungarytoday.hu/foreign-mini...ntions-passed/
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/
UPDATE sanctions now passed as Hungary votes yes
https://hungarytoday.hu/foreign-mini...ntions-passed/
Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd Jun 2022 at 16:33.
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very good assessment.
Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd Jun 2022 at 16:14.
Good brief, thanks Nutty! 
What the major referred to as the cauldron is getting coverage in the US Media. (That may be paywalled)
Excerpts:
This alternate link is so far not behind a paywall.
As the cauldron gets a narrower neck, what air assets can Ukraine provide to cover a withdrawal (mentioned by the Major in the brief) should that become necessary.
If Ukraine can't stop the movement of the pincer arms, at what point does one withdraw so that the 10-12,000 troops aren't trapped/lost/captured?
As to the French and German "skepticism" that was mentioned seems to me like a self licking ice cream cone. OK, not sending heavy weapons, and "we are skeptical you can push them back to 24 Feb borders.
My thought, in trying to see that from a Ukraine perspective, would be: "Send the heavy weapons, or we lose more turf. The 'push 'em back' can't happen unless we stop them first. How about a little help here, eh?"
The human cost to Ukraine has been eye watering.
What the major referred to as the cauldron is getting coverage in the US Media. (That may be paywalled)
Excerpts:
Under cover of near-constant artillery fire, Russian troops are advancing on Ukrainian defenders in the city, pushing them back to the Siverskyi Donets river, beyond which lies the town of Lysychansk, already under heavy bombardment.
The battle for Donbas is inflicting heavy casualties on both sides.
Russia’s advance has been slow despite its quantitative advantage in artillery and munitions.
Ukraine’s toll of dead and injured soldiers has led Kyiv to appeal to its Western supporters for long-range weapons that would allow it to hit back at Russia’s artillery.
The U.S. has promised to send Ukraine guided rocket systems to boost the defenders’ firepower.
Russian forces are also attempting to advance on Lysychansk from the west and south in a bid to encircle the area while avoiding a perilous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets...Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian offensive in Donbas is exposing differences among countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that are sending Kyiv military and other aid...
Germany and France, which have sent limited heavy weapons so far, are skeptical about whether Ukraine can realistically drive the invading Russian army back to its positions when the war began on Feb. 24. Berlin and Paris are particularly anxious to avoid an accidental escalation into a direct clash with Russia, and have called for a cease-fire and a negotiated end to a war that is adding to economic strains in Europe and world-wide...President Biden has vowed to continue arming Ukraine so that it can achieve the strongest possible position on the battlefield before negotiating a settlement to end the war.
(Reporters = Matthew Luxmoore at [email protected] and Marcus Walker at [email protected])
The battle for Donbas is inflicting heavy casualties on both sides.
Russia’s advance has been slow despite its quantitative advantage in artillery and munitions.
Ukraine’s toll of dead and injured soldiers has led Kyiv to appeal to its Western supporters for long-range weapons that would allow it to hit back at Russia’s artillery.
The U.S. has promised to send Ukraine guided rocket systems to boost the defenders’ firepower.
Russian forces are also attempting to advance on Lysychansk from the west and south in a bid to encircle the area while avoiding a perilous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets...Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian offensive in Donbas is exposing differences among countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that are sending Kyiv military and other aid...
Germany and France, which have sent limited heavy weapons so far, are skeptical about whether Ukraine can realistically drive the invading Russian army back to its positions when the war began on Feb. 24. Berlin and Paris are particularly anxious to avoid an accidental escalation into a direct clash with Russia, and have called for a cease-fire and a negotiated end to a war that is adding to economic strains in Europe and world-wide...President Biden has vowed to continue arming Ukraine so that it can achieve the strongest possible position on the battlefield before negotiating a settlement to end the war.
(Reporters = Matthew Luxmoore at [email protected] and Marcus Walker at [email protected])
As the cauldron gets a narrower neck, what air assets can Ukraine provide to cover a withdrawal (mentioned by the Major in the brief) should that become necessary.
If Ukraine can't stop the movement of the pincer arms, at what point does one withdraw so that the 10-12,000 troops aren't trapped/lost/captured?
As to the French and German "skepticism" that was mentioned seems to me like a self licking ice cream cone. OK, not sending heavy weapons, and "we are skeptical you can push them back to 24 Feb borders.
My thought, in trying to see that from a Ukraine perspective, would be: "Send the heavy weapons, or we lose more turf. The 'push 'em back' can't happen unless we stop them first. How about a little help here, eh?"
The human cost to Ukraine has been eye watering.
“Around 12 million of our citizens have been forced to leave their homes because of the war. More than five million went abroad. And the vast majority of them are women and children,” Mr. Zelensky said in a late night video address on Wednesday.
Only half a speed-brake
Here’s re the 18 billion
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/
The options for landlocked countries are always limited, securing their own pipeline is ultimately a great success for Hungary Kft. so Orban will keep his followers. Mixed emotions truly.
Playing the card with Kirill, of all the Putin's bootlickers was extremely bad taste. Why should a pious leader have anything to be cutoff from in the first place? Not talking filtry corrupt rich, as clergymen on occasion do, but being filtht corrupt rich abroad.
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Well you couldn’t make this up a couple of years ago, a Russian built and supplied to the USA Mi-17 in Afghan camouflage sporting Ukrainian markings and fighting against the Country that supplied them
What, did we shoot all of our normal MLRS rockets? Peter, I do not understand that pithy remark. Can you offer a more detailed explanation?
I have a vague recollection about people getting all up in arms over the sub munitions that MLRS distributes over a battlefield (or can, depends on what is in the rocket), and I think that the Israelis came in for a lot of criticism for something similar to that back in the 00's when they had a scrap with Hezbollah, as regards sub munitions.
I have a vague recollection about people getting all up in arms over the sub munitions that MLRS distributes over a battlefield (or can, depends on what is in the rocket), and I think that the Israelis came in for a lot of criticism for something similar to that back in the 00's when they had a scrap with Hezbollah, as regards sub munitions.
The website showed the stockpiles and only the medium range rockets were still held.
However other countries may still have <70km stockpiles.
